Opinion Poll by More in Common, 4 December 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 43.1% 41.6–44.5% 41.2–44.9% 40.9–45.3% 40.2–46.0%
Conservative Party 43.6% 30.5% 29.1–31.9% 28.8–32.3% 28.4–32.6% 27.8–33.3%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 12.6% 11.7–13.6% 11.4–13.9% 11.2–14.2% 10.7–14.7%
Green Party 2.8% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.4%
Brexit Party 2.0% 3.7% 3.2–4.3% 3.0–4.5% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 3.1% 2.7–3.7% 2.5–3.9% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 342 329–359 326–365 323–369 318–378
Conservative Party 365 212 193–225 188–228 182–231 173–237
Liberal Democrats 11 34 28–41 26–42 26–43 23–48
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Scottish National Party 48 37 27–47 23–49 21–50 15–53

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.5%  
319 0.3% 99.3%  
320 0.2% 99.0%  
321 0.4% 98.8%  
322 0.6% 98%  
323 0.7% 98%  
324 0.8% 97%  
325 0.8% 96%  
326 1.1% 95% Majority
327 1.2% 94%  
328 1.4% 93%  
329 2% 92%  
330 1.5% 90%  
331 3% 88%  
332 3% 86%  
333 2% 83%  
334 3% 81%  
335 3% 78%  
336 4% 74%  
337 4% 71%  
338 4% 67%  
339 3% 62%  
340 3% 59%  
341 3% 56%  
342 5% 53% Median
343 3% 48%  
344 3% 45%  
345 4% 42%  
346 3% 39%  
347 3% 36%  
348 3% 33%  
349 2% 30%  
350 3% 28%  
351 2% 25%  
352 2% 23%  
353 2% 21%  
354 2% 19%  
355 3% 17%  
356 1.0% 15%  
357 1.5% 14%  
358 1.1% 12%  
359 1.5% 11%  
360 1.0% 9%  
361 1.1% 8%  
362 0.8% 7%  
363 0.8% 7%  
364 0.4% 6%  
365 0.9% 5%  
366 0.5% 4%  
367 0.6% 4%  
368 0.5% 3%  
369 0.5% 3%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.3% 2%  
374 0.2% 1.3%  
375 0.2% 1.1%  
376 0.1% 0.9%  
377 0.2% 0.8%  
378 0.1% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.7%  
173 0.1% 99.5%  
174 0.2% 99.4%  
175 0.2% 99.2%  
176 0.2% 99.0%  
177 0.2% 98.9%  
178 0.2% 98.7%  
179 0.2% 98%  
180 0.3% 98%  
181 0.3% 98%  
182 0.3% 98%  
183 0.3% 97%  
184 0.3% 97%  
185 0.5% 97%  
186 0.6% 96%  
187 0.6% 96%  
188 0.8% 95%  
189 0.6% 94%  
190 0.9% 94%  
191 0.7% 93%  
192 0.8% 92%  
193 2% 91%  
194 1.0% 90%  
195 2% 89%  
196 2% 87%  
197 2% 85%  
198 1.2% 83%  
199 1.5% 82%  
200 2% 81%  
201 2% 79%  
202 3% 77%  
203 2% 74%  
204 2% 72%  
205 2% 70%  
206 2% 68%  
207 3% 66%  
208 3% 63%  
209 3% 60%  
210 3% 57%  
211 3% 54%  
212 3% 51% Median
213 4% 48%  
214 4% 44%  
215 3% 40%  
216 4% 36%  
217 3% 33%  
218 3% 30%  
219 2% 27%  
220 2% 25%  
221 3% 22%  
222 2% 19%  
223 3% 16%  
224 2% 14%  
225 2% 11%  
226 2% 9%  
227 2% 7%  
228 0.8% 5%  
229 1.0% 5%  
230 0.6% 4%  
231 0.7% 3%  
232 0.6% 2%  
233 0.3% 2%  
234 0.3% 1.3%  
235 0.2% 1.0%  
236 0.2% 0.8%  
237 0.1% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 1.1% 99.5%  
25 0.8% 98%  
26 3% 98%  
27 4% 95%  
28 7% 91%  
29 7% 84%  
30 2% 77%  
31 4% 75%  
32 7% 71%  
33 11% 64%  
34 6% 53% Median
35 4% 47%  
36 1.4% 43%  
37 7% 41%  
38 7% 34%  
39 10% 27%  
40 5% 17%  
41 5% 12%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 4%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.4% 1.3%  
46 0.2% 0.8%  
47 0.1% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.4%  
50 0% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 7% 67%  
2 31% 61% Median
3 29% 29%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.1% 99.8%  
13 0.1% 99.7%  
14 0.1% 99.6%  
15 0.1% 99.5%  
16 0.2% 99.4%  
17 0.4% 99.2%  
18 0.4% 98.8%  
19 0.4% 98%  
20 0.5% 98%  
21 0.6% 98%  
22 1.3% 97%  
23 1.1% 96%  
24 0.4% 95%  
25 1.5% 94%  
26 1.3% 93%  
27 2% 91%  
28 5% 89%  
29 1.2% 84%  
30 5% 83%  
31 3% 78%  
32 4% 75%  
33 5% 71%  
34 3% 66%  
35 9% 63%  
36 3% 54%  
37 5% 50% Median
38 7% 45%  
39 5% 38%  
40 3% 33%  
41 8% 30%  
42 1.0% 22%  
43 6% 21%  
44 0.4% 15%  
45 3% 15%  
46 1.1% 11%  
47 1.2% 10%  
48 4% 9% Last Result
49 2% 5%  
50 1.4% 3%  
51 0.6% 2%  
52 0.5% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 413 100% 399–432 396–437 393–443 386–452
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 377 100% 361–396 357–402 353–408 346–418
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 378 100% 368–394 365–399 363–404 357–411
Labour Party 202 342 95% 329–359 326–365 323–369 318–378
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 248 0% 228–262 222–267 217–270 207–277
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 247 0% 231–256 226–258 221–260 214–266
Conservative Party 365 212 0% 193–225 188–228 182–231 173–237

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.7%  
385 0.1% 99.7%  
386 0.2% 99.6%  
387 0.2% 99.4%  
388 0.2% 99.3%  
389 0.2% 99.1%  
390 0.4% 98.8%  
391 0.3% 98%  
392 0.5% 98%  
393 0.5% 98%  
394 0.9% 97%  
395 1.1% 96%  
396 1.3% 95%  
397 2% 94%  
398 1.5% 92%  
399 2% 91%  
400 3% 89%  
401 3% 86%  
402 3% 83%  
403 2% 81%  
404 3% 79%  
405 3% 76%  
406 3% 73%  
407 3% 70%  
408 2% 68%  
409 5% 65%  
410 5% 61%  
411 3% 56%  
412 3% 53%  
413 3% 50% Median
414 3% 47%  
415 3% 45%  
416 4% 42%  
417 3% 38%  
418 2% 35%  
419 2% 33%  
420 2% 31%  
421 2% 29%  
422 3% 27%  
423 1.4% 24%  
424 2% 23%  
425 2% 21%  
426 1.5% 19%  
427 2% 17%  
428 2% 16%  
429 1.5% 14%  
430 1.4% 12%  
431 1.0% 11%  
432 0.9% 10%  
433 1.5% 9%  
434 0.9% 8%  
435 0.8% 7%  
436 0.5% 6%  
437 0.6% 5%  
438 0.6% 5%  
439 0.5% 4%  
440 0.5% 4%  
441 0.4% 3%  
442 0.4% 3%  
443 0.2% 3%  
444 0.3% 2%  
445 0.3% 2%  
446 0.3% 2%  
447 0.2% 1.4%  
448 0.2% 1.3%  
449 0.2% 1.1%  
450 0.2% 0.9%  
451 0.1% 0.7%  
452 0.1% 0.6%  
453 0.1% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.4%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.6%  
347 0.1% 99.4%  
348 0.2% 99.3%  
349 0.2% 99.2%  
350 0.3% 99.0%  
351 0.3% 98.7%  
352 0.4% 98%  
353 0.5% 98%  
354 0.5% 97%  
355 0.6% 97%  
356 1.2% 96%  
357 0.9% 95%  
358 0.6% 94%  
359 1.1% 94%  
360 1.5% 93%  
361 1.2% 91%  
362 2% 90%  
363 3% 88%  
364 2% 85%  
365 3% 84%  
366 2% 81%  
367 3% 79%  
368 2% 76%  
369 2% 74%  
370 4% 71%  
371 4% 68%  
372 3% 64%  
373 3% 62%  
374 3% 59%  
375 3% 56%  
376 3% 53% Median
377 2% 50%  
378 3% 48%  
379 3% 45%  
380 2% 42%  
381 3% 40%  
382 3% 37%  
383 2% 34%  
384 2% 32%  
385 3% 30%  
386 3% 27%  
387 1.4% 24%  
388 2% 23%  
389 2% 21%  
390 2% 19%  
391 1.2% 17%  
392 1.2% 16%  
393 2% 15%  
394 1.2% 13%  
395 1.3% 12%  
396 1.0% 11%  
397 0.8% 10%  
398 1.4% 9%  
399 0.6% 8%  
400 0.9% 7%  
401 0.7% 6%  
402 0.8% 6%  
403 0.4% 5%  
404 0.6% 4%  
405 0.4% 4%  
406 0.4% 3%  
407 0.3% 3%  
408 0.3% 3%  
409 0.3% 2%  
410 0.3% 2%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.2% 2%  
413 0.2% 1.4%  
414 0.2% 1.2%  
415 0.2% 1.0%  
416 0.2% 0.9%  
417 0.1% 0.7%  
418 0.1% 0.6%  
419 0.1% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.4%  
421 0% 0.3%  
422 0% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0.1% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.8%  
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0.1% 99.6%  
358 0.2% 99.5%  
359 0.2% 99.3%  
360 0.3% 99.1%  
361 0.4% 98.8%  
362 0.4% 98%  
363 0.6% 98%  
364 1.2% 97%  
365 1.4% 96%  
366 2% 95%  
367 2% 93%  
368 3% 91%  
369 3% 88%  
370 3% 85%  
371 3% 81%  
372 4% 78%  
373 4% 74%  
374 4% 70%  
375 5% 66%  
376 5% 61%  
377 5% 56%  
378 4% 51%  
379 3% 47% Median
380 3% 44%  
381 3% 40%  
382 2% 37%  
383 3% 35%  
384 2% 32%  
385 3% 30%  
386 2% 27%  
387 2% 24%  
388 2% 22%  
389 2% 19%  
390 2% 18%  
391 2% 16%  
392 2% 13%  
393 1.3% 12%  
394 2% 10%  
395 1.0% 9%  
396 0.7% 8%  
397 0.7% 7%  
398 1.1% 6%  
399 0.5% 5%  
400 0.7% 5%  
401 0.5% 4%  
402 0.4% 3%  
403 0.3% 3%  
404 0.3% 3%  
405 0.3% 2%  
406 0.2% 2%  
407 0.3% 2%  
408 0.3% 1.5%  
409 0.2% 1.2%  
410 0.2% 0.9%  
411 0.2% 0.7%  
412 0.2% 0.5%  
413 0.1% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.5%  
319 0.3% 99.3%  
320 0.2% 99.0%  
321 0.4% 98.8%  
322 0.6% 98%  
323 0.7% 98%  
324 0.8% 97%  
325 0.8% 96%  
326 1.1% 95% Majority
327 1.2% 94%  
328 1.4% 93%  
329 2% 92%  
330 1.5% 90%  
331 3% 88%  
332 3% 86%  
333 2% 83%  
334 3% 81%  
335 3% 78%  
336 4% 74%  
337 4% 71%  
338 4% 67%  
339 3% 62%  
340 3% 59%  
341 3% 56%  
342 5% 53% Median
343 3% 48%  
344 3% 45%  
345 4% 42%  
346 3% 39%  
347 3% 36%  
348 3% 33%  
349 2% 30%  
350 3% 28%  
351 2% 25%  
352 2% 23%  
353 2% 21%  
354 2% 19%  
355 3% 17%  
356 1.0% 15%  
357 1.5% 14%  
358 1.1% 12%  
359 1.5% 11%  
360 1.0% 9%  
361 1.1% 8%  
362 0.8% 7%  
363 0.8% 7%  
364 0.4% 6%  
365 0.9% 5%  
366 0.5% 4%  
367 0.6% 4%  
368 0.5% 3%  
369 0.5% 3%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.3% 2%  
374 0.2% 1.3%  
375 0.2% 1.1%  
376 0.1% 0.9%  
377 0.2% 0.8%  
378 0.1% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.8%  
202 0.1% 99.8%  
203 0% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.7%  
205 0% 99.7%  
206 0.1% 99.6%  
207 0.1% 99.6%  
208 0.2% 99.4%  
209 0.1% 99.3%  
210 0.2% 99.2%  
211 0.2% 99.0%  
212 0.2% 98.8%  
213 0.2% 98.6%  
214 0.2% 98%  
215 0.3% 98%  
216 0.3% 98%  
217 0.3% 98%  
218 0.3% 97%  
219 0.4% 97%  
220 0.5% 96%  
221 0.3% 96%  
222 0.7% 96%  
223 0.7% 95%  
224 0.7% 94%  
225 0.6% 93%  
226 1.2% 93%  
227 0.9% 92%  
228 1.0% 91%  
229 1.2% 90%  
230 0.8% 88%  
231 1.5% 88%  
232 1.1% 86%  
233 2% 85%  
234 1.2% 83%  
235 2% 82%  
236 2% 80%  
237 2% 78%  
238 2% 76%  
239 2% 74%  
240 2% 72%  
241 3% 70%  
242 3% 67%  
243 3% 64%  
244 2% 61%  
245 4% 59%  
246 2% 56%  
247 3% 53%  
248 2% 50%  
249 3% 48% Median
250 3% 45%  
251 2% 41%  
252 3% 39%  
253 4% 36%  
254 3% 32%  
255 2% 29%  
256 2% 27%  
257 2% 24%  
258 4% 22%  
259 2% 19%  
260 3% 17%  
261 2% 14%  
262 2% 12%  
263 1.5% 10%  
264 1.1% 8%  
265 1.0% 7%  
266 1.2% 6%  
267 1.1% 5%  
268 0.6% 4%  
269 0.6% 3%  
270 0.5% 3%  
271 0.4% 2%  
272 0.3% 2%  
273 0.4% 1.4%  
274 0.2% 1.1%  
275 0.2% 0.9%  
276 0.1% 0.7%  
277 0.2% 0.6%  
278 0.1% 0.4%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.7%  
213 0.1% 99.7%  
214 0.2% 99.6%  
215 0.4% 99.4%  
216 0.2% 99.0%  
217 0.2% 98.8%  
218 0.3% 98.5%  
219 0.4% 98%  
220 0.2% 98%  
221 0.3% 98%  
222 0.3% 97%  
223 0.5% 97%  
224 0.5% 96%  
225 0.5% 96%  
226 1.0% 95%  
227 0.6% 94%  
228 1.0% 94%  
229 1.0% 93%  
230 0.8% 92%  
231 1.2% 91%  
232 2% 90%  
233 2% 88%  
234 2% 86%  
235 3% 84%  
236 2% 81%  
237 2% 80%  
238 2% 77%  
239 2% 75%  
240 3% 73%  
241 4% 70%  
242 3% 66%  
243 2% 63%  
244 2% 61%  
245 4% 59%  
246 5% 55% Median
247 5% 50%  
248 4% 45%  
249 5% 41%  
250 6% 36%  
251 4% 30%  
252 3% 26%  
253 4% 22%  
254 4% 18%  
255 3% 14%  
256 3% 10%  
257 1.4% 8%  
258 2% 6%  
259 1.3% 4%  
260 0.8% 3%  
261 0.6% 2%  
262 0.4% 1.5%  
263 0.1% 1.1%  
264 0.2% 1.0%  
265 0.2% 0.7%  
266 0.2% 0.5%  
267 0.1% 0.4%  
268 0.1% 0.3%  
269 0.1% 0.2%  
270 0.1% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.7%  
173 0.1% 99.5%  
174 0.2% 99.4%  
175 0.2% 99.2%  
176 0.2% 99.0%  
177 0.2% 98.9%  
178 0.2% 98.7%  
179 0.2% 98%  
180 0.3% 98%  
181 0.3% 98%  
182 0.3% 98%  
183 0.3% 97%  
184 0.3% 97%  
185 0.5% 97%  
186 0.6% 96%  
187 0.6% 96%  
188 0.8% 95%  
189 0.6% 94%  
190 0.9% 94%  
191 0.7% 93%  
192 0.8% 92%  
193 2% 91%  
194 1.0% 90%  
195 2% 89%  
196 2% 87%  
197 2% 85%  
198 1.2% 83%  
199 1.5% 82%  
200 2% 81%  
201 2% 79%  
202 3% 77%  
203 2% 74%  
204 2% 72%  
205 2% 70%  
206 2% 68%  
207 3% 66%  
208 3% 63%  
209 3% 60%  
210 3% 57%  
211 3% 54%  
212 3% 51% Median
213 4% 48%  
214 4% 44%  
215 3% 40%  
216 4% 36%  
217 3% 33%  
218 3% 30%  
219 2% 27%  
220 2% 25%  
221 3% 22%  
222 2% 19%  
223 3% 16%  
224 2% 14%  
225 2% 11%  
226 2% 9%  
227 2% 7%  
228 0.8% 5%  
229 1.0% 5%  
230 0.6% 4%  
231 0.7% 3%  
232 0.6% 2%  
233 0.3% 2%  
234 0.3% 1.3%  
235 0.2% 1.0%  
236 0.2% 0.8%  
237 0.1% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations