Opinion Poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 17 December 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 45.1% 43.7–46.6% 43.2–47.1% 42.9–47.4% 42.2–48.1%
Conservative Party 43.6% 25.8% 24.5–27.1% 24.2–27.5% 23.9–27.8% 23.2–28.5%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 11.8% 10.9–12.8% 10.7–13.1% 10.4–13.4% 10.0–13.9%
Green Party 2.8% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.5%
Brexit Party 2.0% 4.7% 4.1–5.4% 3.9–5.6% 3.8–5.7% 3.5–6.1%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 378 360–394 356–399 352–403 342–414
Conservative Party 365 157 137–176 132–181 127–186 115–197
Liberal Democrats 11 37 30–47 27–50 25–51 22–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–3
Brexit Party 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 0–4
Scottish National Party 48 52 43–56 41–57 41–58 38–58

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0.1% 99.5%  
343 0.1% 99.5%  
344 0.1% 99.4%  
345 0.2% 99.2%  
346 0.2% 99.1%  
347 0.2% 98.9%  
348 0.3% 98.7%  
349 0.3% 98%  
350 0.3% 98%  
351 0.2% 98%  
352 0.4% 98%  
353 0.3% 97%  
354 0.4% 97%  
355 0.6% 96%  
356 0.9% 96%  
357 1.3% 95%  
358 1.4% 93%  
359 1.1% 92%  
360 2% 91%  
361 2% 89%  
362 2% 87%  
363 2% 85%  
364 3% 83%  
365 2% 80%  
366 3% 78%  
367 3% 75%  
368 2% 72%  
369 2% 70%  
370 3% 68%  
371 2% 65%  
372 2% 63%  
373 3% 61%  
374 1.4% 58%  
375 3% 57%  
376 2% 54%  
377 2% 52%  
378 2% 50% Median
379 2% 48%  
380 3% 46%  
381 3% 43%  
382 3% 40%  
383 2% 37%  
384 3% 35%  
385 2% 32%  
386 2% 30%  
387 2% 27%  
388 3% 25%  
389 3% 22%  
390 2% 19%  
391 3% 18%  
392 2% 15%  
393 2% 13%  
394 1.1% 11%  
395 1.2% 10%  
396 1.3% 9%  
397 0.8% 7%  
398 1.2% 7%  
399 0.7% 5%  
400 0.8% 5%  
401 0.7% 4%  
402 0.4% 3%  
403 0.4% 3%  
404 0.4% 2%  
405 0.2% 2%  
406 0.3% 2%  
407 0.2% 2%  
408 0.2% 1.3%  
409 0.2% 1.1%  
410 0.1% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.8%  
412 0.1% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.6%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.4%  
417 0% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.3%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.8%  
107 0% 99.8%  
108 0% 99.8%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0% 99.7%  
111 0% 99.7%  
112 0% 99.7%  
113 0.1% 99.6%  
114 0.1% 99.6%  
115 0.1% 99.5%  
116 0.1% 99.4%  
117 0.1% 99.3%  
118 0.1% 99.3%  
119 0.1% 99.2%  
120 0.1% 99.1%  
121 0.1% 98.9%  
122 0.2% 98.8%  
123 0.2% 98.6%  
124 0.2% 98%  
125 0.2% 98%  
126 0.2% 98%  
127 0.4% 98%  
128 0.3% 97%  
129 0.3% 97%  
130 0.6% 97%  
131 0.9% 96%  
132 0.7% 95%  
133 0.6% 95%  
134 0.9% 94%  
135 1.2% 93%  
136 1.3% 92%  
137 0.9% 91%  
138 1.3% 90%  
139 1.4% 88%  
140 2% 87%  
141 2% 85%  
142 2% 83%  
143 1.3% 81%  
144 2% 80%  
145 2% 78%  
146 2% 76%  
147 3% 73%  
148 2% 70%  
149 3% 68%  
150 2% 66%  
151 2% 63%  
152 2% 61%  
153 2% 59%  
154 2% 57%  
155 3% 55%  
156 2% 52%  
157 2% 50% Median
158 2% 48%  
159 2% 46%  
160 2% 44%  
161 2% 42%  
162 2% 40%  
163 2% 38%  
164 2% 36%  
165 2% 34%  
166 2% 31%  
167 3% 29%  
168 2% 26%  
169 2% 24%  
170 2% 22%  
171 3% 20%  
172 2% 17%  
173 2% 15%  
174 1.4% 14%  
175 1.2% 12%  
176 2% 11%  
177 1.3% 9%  
178 0.9% 8%  
179 0.7% 7%  
180 0.7% 6%  
181 0.8% 6%  
182 0.9% 5%  
183 0.4% 4%  
184 0.6% 4%  
185 0.3% 3%  
186 0.5% 3%  
187 0.3% 2%  
188 0.3% 2%  
189 0.1% 2%  
190 0.2% 2%  
191 0.2% 1.3%  
192 0.2% 1.1%  
193 0.2% 0.9%  
194 0.1% 0.8%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.4% 99.6%  
23 0.6% 99.2%  
24 0.7% 98.6%  
25 0.7% 98%  
26 0.9% 97%  
27 2% 96%  
28 2% 95%  
29 2% 93%  
30 2% 90%  
31 2% 88%  
32 3% 86%  
33 4% 84%  
34 6% 80%  
35 8% 74%  
36 7% 66%  
37 9% 59% Median
38 8% 50%  
39 7% 42%  
40 6% 35%  
41 5% 29%  
42 5% 24%  
43 3% 19%  
44 3% 17%  
45 1.3% 14%  
46 2% 13%  
47 2% 11%  
48 2% 9%  
49 1.3% 7%  
50 2% 6%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.5%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 95% 100% Last Result, Median
2 3% 5%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100% Last Result
1 0.8% 98.6%  
2 10% 98%  
3 76% 87% Median
4 11% 11%  
5 0.3% 0.4%  
6 0.1% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.6%  
38 0.8% 99.6%  
39 0.2% 98.8%  
40 0.9% 98.5%  
41 5% 98%  
42 0.6% 93%  
43 4% 92%  
44 0.8% 88%  
45 3% 87%  
46 2% 84%  
47 2% 82%  
48 5% 81% Last Result
49 5% 75%  
50 5% 70%  
51 7% 65%  
52 9% 58% Median
53 10% 49%  
54 8% 39%  
55 12% 31%  
56 9% 19%  
57 6% 10%  
58 4% 4%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 466 100% 447–486 442–491 437–496 426–507
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 429 100% 413–444 409–448 404–452 395–462
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 415 100% 394–437 388–442 383–447 372–461
Labour Party 202 378 100% 360–394 356–399 352–403 342–414
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 208 0% 186–229 181–234 176–239 162–251
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 194 0% 179–210 175–214 171–219 161–228
Conservative Party 365 157 0% 137–176 132–181 127–186 115–197

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.8%  
422 0% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.1% 99.7%  
425 0.1% 99.6%  
426 0.1% 99.5%  
427 0.1% 99.5%  
428 0.1% 99.4%  
429 0.1% 99.3%  
430 0.2% 99.2%  
431 0.2% 99.0%  
432 0.1% 98.8%  
433 0.2% 98.7%  
434 0.1% 98%  
435 0.3% 98%  
436 0.3% 98%  
437 0.4% 98%  
438 0.2% 97%  
439 0.6% 97%  
440 0.6% 96%  
441 0.7% 96%  
442 0.7% 95%  
443 0.8% 94%  
444 0.7% 94%  
445 1.0% 93%  
446 2% 92%  
447 1.5% 90%  
448 1.2% 89%  
449 2% 88%  
450 2% 86%  
451 2% 84%  
452 3% 83%  
453 2% 80%  
454 2% 78%  
455 2% 76%  
456 3% 74%  
457 3% 71%  
458 2% 68%  
459 2% 66%  
460 2% 64%  
461 2% 62%  
462 2% 60%  
463 2% 58%  
464 2% 56%  
465 2% 54%  
466 2% 52%  
467 2% 50% Median
468 3% 48%  
469 2% 45%  
470 2% 43%  
471 2% 41%  
472 2% 39%  
473 2% 37%  
474 2% 34%  
475 2% 32%  
476 3% 29%  
477 2% 27%  
478 2% 24%  
479 2% 23%  
480 1.3% 20%  
481 2% 19%  
482 2% 17%  
483 2% 15%  
484 2% 13%  
485 1.3% 12%  
486 0.9% 10%  
487 1.4% 9%  
488 0.9% 8%  
489 0.9% 7%  
490 0.7% 6%  
491 0.6% 5%  
492 0.8% 5%  
493 0.8% 4%  
494 0.4% 3%  
495 0.4% 3%  
496 0.4% 3%  
497 0.2% 2%  
498 0.2% 2%  
499 0.2% 2%  
500 0.2% 1.5%  
501 0.2% 1.3%  
502 0.1% 1.1%  
503 0.1% 1.0%  
504 0.1% 0.9%  
505 0.1% 0.8%  
506 0.1% 0.7%  
507 0.1% 0.6%  
508 0.1% 0.5%  
509 0% 0.4%  
510 0% 0.4%  
511 0.1% 0.3%  
512 0% 0.3%  
513 0% 0.3%  
514 0% 0.2%  
515 0% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.2%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0.1%  
527 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.7%  
394 0.1% 99.6%  
395 0.1% 99.5%  
396 0.1% 99.4%  
397 0.1% 99.3%  
398 0.1% 99.2%  
399 0.2% 99.1%  
400 0.3% 98.9%  
401 0.3% 98.5%  
402 0.2% 98%  
403 0.3% 98%  
404 0.3% 98%  
405 0.3% 97%  
406 0.4% 97%  
407 0.4% 97%  
408 1.0% 96%  
409 0.9% 95%  
410 1.0% 94%  
411 1.1% 93%  
412 2% 92%  
413 2% 90%  
414 2% 88%  
415 2% 86%  
416 2% 84%  
417 4% 81%  
418 2% 78%  
419 3% 75%  
420 2% 72%  
421 2% 69%  
422 2% 67%  
423 2% 65%  
424 3% 62%  
425 2% 60%  
426 2% 57%  
427 2% 55%  
428 2% 53%  
429 2% 50%  
430 3% 48% Median
431 2% 46%  
432 2% 43%  
433 3% 41%  
434 3% 38%  
435 3% 35%  
436 3% 32%  
437 2% 29%  
438 3% 27%  
439 3% 24%  
440 2% 21%  
441 3% 19%  
442 2% 16%  
443 2% 14%  
444 3% 12%  
445 2% 10%  
446 1.4% 8%  
447 1.0% 6%  
448 0.7% 5%  
449 0.8% 4%  
450 0.7% 4%  
451 0.4% 3%  
452 0.4% 3%  
453 0.3% 2%  
454 0.4% 2%  
455 0.2% 2%  
456 0.2% 1.4%  
457 0.2% 1.3%  
458 0.1% 1.1%  
459 0.2% 1.0%  
460 0.1% 0.8%  
461 0.1% 0.6%  
462 0.1% 0.5%  
463 0.1% 0.4%  
464 0.1% 0.4%  
465 0% 0.3%  
466 0% 0.3%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.2%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.8%  
368 0% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.7%  
370 0.1% 99.7%  
371 0.1% 99.6%  
372 0.1% 99.5%  
373 0.1% 99.5%  
374 0.1% 99.4%  
375 0.1% 99.3%  
376 0.1% 99.2%  
377 0.1% 99.1%  
378 0.2% 98.9%  
379 0.2% 98.7%  
380 0.3% 98.5%  
381 0.2% 98%  
382 0.2% 98%  
383 0.3% 98%  
384 0.4% 97%  
385 0.5% 97%  
386 0.6% 97%  
387 0.6% 96%  
388 0.5% 96%  
389 0.6% 95%  
390 1.1% 94%  
391 0.7% 93%  
392 1.1% 93%  
393 1.2% 91%  
394 1.2% 90%  
395 1.2% 89%  
396 2% 88%  
397 1.5% 86%  
398 2% 85%  
399 2% 83%  
400 2% 81%  
401 2% 80%  
402 2% 78%  
403 2% 75%  
404 2% 73%  
405 2% 71%  
406 3% 69%  
407 1.5% 67%  
408 2% 65%  
409 2% 64%  
410 2% 62%  
411 2% 59%  
412 2% 57%  
413 2% 56%  
414 2% 54%  
415 3% 52% Median
416 2% 49%  
417 2% 47%  
418 2% 45%  
419 3% 43%  
420 2% 40%  
421 2% 39%  
422 3% 37%  
423 2% 34%  
424 2% 32%  
425 2% 29%  
426 2% 28%  
427 2% 26%  
428 1.4% 24%  
429 2% 22%  
430 2% 20%  
431 2% 18%  
432 2% 17%  
433 0.8% 15%  
434 1.4% 14%  
435 1.2% 13%  
436 1.1% 11%  
437 1.0% 10%  
438 0.9% 9%  
439 1.1% 9%  
440 0.9% 7%  
441 1.1% 7%  
442 0.5% 5%  
443 0.5% 5%  
444 0.8% 4%  
445 0.4% 4%  
446 0.4% 3%  
447 0.4% 3%  
448 0.3% 2%  
449 0.3% 2%  
450 0.2% 2%  
451 0.2% 2%  
452 0.2% 2%  
453 0.2% 1.4%  
454 0.2% 1.2%  
455 0.1% 1.0%  
456 0.1% 0.9%  
457 0.1% 0.8%  
458 0% 0.7%  
459 0.1% 0.7%  
460 0.1% 0.6%  
461 0.1% 0.5%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.4%  
464 0% 0.3%  
465 0% 0.3%  
466 0% 0.3%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0.1% 99.5%  
343 0.1% 99.5%  
344 0.1% 99.4%  
345 0.2% 99.2%  
346 0.2% 99.1%  
347 0.2% 98.9%  
348 0.3% 98.7%  
349 0.3% 98%  
350 0.3% 98%  
351 0.2% 98%  
352 0.4% 98%  
353 0.3% 97%  
354 0.4% 97%  
355 0.6% 96%  
356 0.9% 96%  
357 1.3% 95%  
358 1.4% 93%  
359 1.1% 92%  
360 2% 91%  
361 2% 89%  
362 2% 87%  
363 2% 85%  
364 3% 83%  
365 2% 80%  
366 3% 78%  
367 3% 75%  
368 2% 72%  
369 2% 70%  
370 3% 68%  
371 2% 65%  
372 2% 63%  
373 3% 61%  
374 1.4% 58%  
375 3% 57%  
376 2% 54%  
377 2% 52%  
378 2% 50% Median
379 2% 48%  
380 3% 46%  
381 3% 43%  
382 3% 40%  
383 2% 37%  
384 3% 35%  
385 2% 32%  
386 2% 30%  
387 2% 27%  
388 3% 25%  
389 3% 22%  
390 2% 19%  
391 3% 18%  
392 2% 15%  
393 2% 13%  
394 1.1% 11%  
395 1.2% 10%  
396 1.3% 9%  
397 0.8% 7%  
398 1.2% 7%  
399 0.7% 5%  
400 0.8% 5%  
401 0.7% 4%  
402 0.4% 3%  
403 0.4% 3%  
404 0.4% 2%  
405 0.2% 2%  
406 0.3% 2%  
407 0.2% 2%  
408 0.2% 1.3%  
409 0.2% 1.1%  
410 0.1% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.8%  
412 0.1% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.6%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.4%  
417 0% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.3%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.8%  
155 0% 99.8%  
156 0% 99.8%  
157 0% 99.7%  
158 0% 99.7%  
159 0% 99.7%  
160 0.1% 99.6%  
161 0% 99.6%  
162 0.1% 99.5%  
163 0.1% 99.5%  
164 0.1% 99.4%  
165 0.1% 99.3%  
166 0.1% 99.3%  
167 0.2% 99.2%  
168 0.2% 99.0%  
169 0.1% 98.8%  
170 0.2% 98.7%  
171 0.2% 98.5%  
172 0.1% 98%  
173 0.1% 98%  
174 0.3% 98%  
175 0.2% 98%  
176 0.4% 98%  
177 0.4% 97%  
178 0.4% 97%  
179 0.6% 96%  
180 0.6% 96%  
181 0.4% 95%  
182 1.1% 95%  
183 0.9% 94%  
184 1.0% 93%  
185 1.1% 92%  
186 0.9% 90%  
187 1.0% 90%  
188 1.3% 89%  
189 1.3% 87%  
190 0.8% 86%  
191 2% 85%  
192 2% 83%  
193 2% 82%  
194 2% 80%  
195 1.4% 78%  
196 2% 76%  
197 2% 74%  
198 2% 73%  
199 2% 71%  
200 2% 69%  
201 3% 66%  
202 2% 63%  
203 2% 61%  
204 2% 59%  
205 2% 57%  
206 2% 55%  
207 2% 53%  
208 3% 51%  
209 2% 48% Median
210 2% 46%  
211 2% 44%  
212 2% 42%  
213 2% 41%  
214 2% 38%  
215 2% 36%  
216 2% 35%  
217 2% 33%  
218 2% 31%  
219 3% 29%  
220 2% 26%  
221 2% 24%  
222 2% 22%  
223 1.3% 20%  
224 1.4% 18%  
225 2% 17%  
226 2% 15%  
227 1.4% 14%  
228 1.4% 12%  
229 1.1% 11%  
230 1.2% 10%  
231 1.1% 9%  
232 0.7% 7%  
233 1.2% 7%  
234 0.6% 6%  
235 0.6% 5%  
236 0.5% 4%  
237 0.7% 4%  
238 0.4% 3%  
239 0.4% 3%  
240 0.3% 2%  
241 0.2% 2%  
242 0.2% 2%  
243 0.3% 2%  
244 0.2% 1.4%  
245 0.2% 1.2%  
246 0.1% 1.0%  
247 0.1% 0.9%  
248 0.1% 0.8%  
249 0.1% 0.7%  
250 0.1% 0.6%  
251 0.1% 0.5%  
252 0.1% 0.4%  
253 0% 0.4%  
254 0.1% 0.3%  
255 0% 0.2%  
256 0% 0.2%  
257 0% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.8%  
153 0% 99.8%  
154 0% 99.8%  
155 0% 99.8%  
156 0% 99.8%  
157 0.1% 99.7%  
158 0.1% 99.7%  
159 0% 99.6%  
160 0.1% 99.6%  
161 0.1% 99.5%  
162 0.1% 99.4%  
163 0.2% 99.3%  
164 0.1% 99.1%  
165 0.1% 99.0%  
166 0.2% 98.9%  
167 0.2% 98.7%  
168 0.2% 98.6%  
169 0.2% 98%  
170 0.4% 98%  
171 0.4% 98%  
172 0.4% 97%  
173 0.6% 97%  
174 0.7% 96%  
175 0.9% 96%  
176 0.9% 95%  
177 1.3% 94%  
178 2% 93%  
179 3% 91%  
180 2% 88%  
181 2% 86%  
182 3% 84%  
183 2% 81%  
184 3% 79%  
185 3% 76%  
186 2% 73%  
187 3% 71%  
188 3% 68%  
189 3% 65%  
190 4% 62%  
191 2% 58%  
192 2% 57%  
193 3% 54%  
194 2% 52% Median
195 2% 50%  
196 2% 47%  
197 3% 45%  
198 2% 43%  
199 3% 40%  
200 3% 38%  
201 2% 35%  
202 2% 33%  
203 2% 30%  
204 3% 28%  
205 3% 25%  
206 4% 22%  
207 2% 18%  
208 2% 16%  
209 2% 14%  
210 2% 12%  
211 2% 10%  
212 1.0% 8%  
213 1.2% 7%  
214 0.8% 5%  
215 0.9% 5%  
216 0.4% 4%  
217 0.4% 3%  
218 0.3% 3%  
219 0.4% 3%  
220 0.2% 2%  
221 0.3% 2%  
222 0.3% 2%  
223 0.4% 1.4%  
224 0.2% 1.0%  
225 0.1% 0.9%  
226 0.1% 0.8%  
227 0.1% 0.6%  
228 0.1% 0.5%  
229 0.1% 0.4%  
230 0.1% 0.3%  
231 0.1% 0.3%  
232 0% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.8%  
107 0% 99.8%  
108 0% 99.8%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0% 99.7%  
111 0% 99.7%  
112 0% 99.7%  
113 0.1% 99.6%  
114 0.1% 99.6%  
115 0.1% 99.5%  
116 0.1% 99.4%  
117 0.1% 99.3%  
118 0.1% 99.3%  
119 0.1% 99.2%  
120 0.1% 99.1%  
121 0.1% 98.9%  
122 0.2% 98.8%  
123 0.2% 98.6%  
124 0.2% 98%  
125 0.2% 98%  
126 0.2% 98%  
127 0.4% 98%  
128 0.3% 97%  
129 0.3% 97%  
130 0.6% 97%  
131 0.9% 96%  
132 0.7% 95%  
133 0.6% 95%  
134 0.9% 94%  
135 1.2% 93%  
136 1.3% 92%  
137 0.9% 91%  
138 1.3% 90%  
139 1.4% 88%  
140 2% 87%  
141 2% 85%  
142 2% 83%  
143 1.3% 81%  
144 2% 80%  
145 2% 78%  
146 2% 76%  
147 3% 73%  
148 2% 70%  
149 3% 68%  
150 2% 66%  
151 2% 63%  
152 2% 61%  
153 2% 59%  
154 2% 57%  
155 3% 55%  
156 2% 52%  
157 2% 50% Median
158 2% 48%  
159 2% 46%  
160 2% 44%  
161 2% 42%  
162 2% 40%  
163 2% 38%  
164 2% 36%  
165 2% 34%  
166 2% 31%  
167 3% 29%  
168 2% 26%  
169 2% 24%  
170 2% 22%  
171 3% 20%  
172 2% 17%  
173 2% 15%  
174 1.4% 14%  
175 1.2% 12%  
176 2% 11%  
177 1.3% 9%  
178 0.9% 8%  
179 0.7% 7%  
180 0.7% 6%  
181 0.8% 6%  
182 0.9% 5%  
183 0.4% 4%  
184 0.6% 4%  
185 0.3% 3%  
186 0.5% 3%  
187 0.3% 2%  
188 0.3% 2%  
189 0.1% 2%  
190 0.2% 2%  
191 0.2% 1.3%  
192 0.2% 1.1%  
193 0.2% 0.9%  
194 0.1% 0.8%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations