Opinion Poll by We Think, 18–19 January 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 51.4% 49.5–53.4% 48.9–53.9% 48.5–54.4% 47.5–55.3%
Conservative Party 43.6% 24.6% 23.0–26.4% 22.5–26.8% 22.1–27.3% 21.4–28.1%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 9.7% 8.6–10.9% 8.3–11.3% 8.0–11.6% 7.6–12.2%
Brexit Party 2.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.6% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.1% 3.3–6.6%
Green Party 2.8% 4.1% 3.5–5.0% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.5% 2.8–6.0%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 438 409–469 402–477 398–482 385–491
Conservative Party 365 121 89–154 80–160 73–165 64–177
Liberal Democrats 11 27 20–38 18–40 17–42 14–50
Brexit Party 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Scottish National Party 48 36 22–45 21–48 19–52 16–55

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.8%  
380 0% 99.8%  
381 0% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.7%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0.1% 99.6%  
385 0.1% 99.6%  
386 0.1% 99.5%  
387 0.1% 99.4%  
388 0% 99.3%  
389 0.1% 99.3%  
390 0.1% 99.2%  
391 0.2% 99.1%  
392 0.1% 98.9%  
393 0.2% 98.7%  
394 0.3% 98.5%  
395 0.2% 98%  
396 0.3% 98%  
397 0.2% 98%  
398 0.4% 98%  
399 0.5% 97%  
400 0.4% 97%  
401 0.5% 96%  
402 0.8% 96%  
403 0.8% 95%  
404 0.6% 94%  
405 0.5% 94%  
406 0.9% 93%  
407 1.0% 92%  
408 1.1% 91%  
409 1.1% 90%  
410 1.0% 89%  
411 1.1% 88%  
412 1.3% 87%  
413 1.3% 86%  
414 1.3% 84%  
415 2% 83%  
416 1.4% 82%  
417 0.8% 80%  
418 0.9% 79%  
419 2% 78%  
420 2% 76%  
421 2% 74%  
422 1.3% 72%  
423 1.0% 71%  
424 1.0% 70%  
425 1.4% 69%  
426 2% 68%  
427 1.5% 66%  
428 2% 65%  
429 1.5% 63%  
430 1.2% 61%  
431 1.0% 60%  
432 0.6% 59%  
433 0.8% 58%  
434 0.8% 58%  
435 1.4% 57%  
436 2% 55%  
437 1.4% 54%  
438 3% 52% Median
439 2% 50%  
440 1.0% 48%  
441 0.4% 47%  
442 0.6% 46%  
443 2% 45%  
444 1.5% 43%  
445 2% 42%  
446 2% 40%  
447 1.2% 39%  
448 2% 37%  
449 2% 35%  
450 1.4% 34%  
451 2% 32%  
452 2% 31%  
453 0.9% 29%  
454 2% 28%  
455 2% 26%  
456 1.4% 25%  
457 1.1% 23%  
458 1.0% 22%  
459 2% 21%  
460 2% 20%  
461 1.1% 18%  
462 1.2% 17%  
463 0.9% 16%  
464 1.2% 15%  
465 0.7% 14%  
466 0.9% 13%  
467 1.0% 12%  
468 0.8% 11%  
469 0.8% 10%  
470 0.5% 9%  
471 0.6% 9%  
472 0.9% 8%  
473 0.8% 7%  
474 0.6% 7%  
475 0.4% 6%  
476 0.5% 6%  
477 0.5% 5%  
478 0.5% 5%  
479 0.3% 4%  
480 0.4% 4%  
481 0.5% 3%  
482 0.5% 3%  
483 0.2% 2%  
484 0.2% 2%  
485 0.3% 2%  
486 0.2% 2%  
487 0.2% 1.4%  
488 0.2% 1.1%  
489 0.2% 0.9%  
490 0.1% 0.7%  
491 0.1% 0.6%  
492 0.1% 0.5%  
493 0.1% 0.4%  
494 0.1% 0.3%  
495 0% 0.2%  
496 0% 0.2%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.1% 99.6%  
64 0.1% 99.6%  
65 0.1% 99.5%  
66 0.1% 99.4%  
67 0.1% 99.3%  
68 0.1% 99.2%  
69 0.2% 99.1%  
70 0.3% 98.9%  
71 0.3% 98.5%  
72 0.4% 98%  
73 0.4% 98%  
74 0.2% 97%  
75 0.4% 97%  
76 0.4% 97%  
77 0.4% 96%  
78 0.4% 96%  
79 0.4% 96%  
80 0.7% 95%  
81 0.4% 94%  
82 0.7% 94%  
83 0.6% 93%  
84 0.6% 93%  
85 0.5% 92%  
86 0.5% 92%  
87 0.6% 91%  
88 0.4% 91%  
89 0.7% 90%  
90 0.8% 89%  
91 1.0% 89%  
92 1.0% 88%  
93 1.0% 87%  
94 0.8% 86%  
95 0.9% 85%  
96 0.8% 84%  
97 1.4% 83%  
98 1.0% 82%  
99 0.8% 81%  
100 1.0% 80%  
101 1.0% 79%  
102 1.2% 78%  
103 1.2% 77%  
104 1.4% 76%  
105 1.3% 74%  
106 1.1% 73%  
107 2% 72%  
108 1.5% 70%  
109 1.1% 69%  
110 2% 68%  
111 1.3% 66%  
112 1.2% 65%  
113 1.1% 64%  
114 2% 62%  
115 2% 60%  
116 1.3% 59%  
117 1.3% 57%  
118 1.3% 56%  
119 2% 55%  
120 2% 53%  
121 1.1% 51% Median
122 1.0% 50%  
123 1.2% 49%  
124 1.4% 48%  
125 0.8% 46%  
126 2% 46%  
127 0.8% 44%  
128 1.0% 43%  
129 1.2% 42%  
130 1.0% 41%  
131 1.4% 40%  
132 0.8% 39%  
133 1.1% 38%  
134 1.0% 37%  
135 2% 36%  
136 2% 34%  
137 2% 33%  
138 1.0% 31%  
139 2% 30%  
140 0.7% 28%  
141 2% 27%  
142 2% 26%  
143 2% 24%  
144 1.0% 23%  
145 2% 21%  
146 0.9% 20%  
147 0.9% 19%  
148 1.4% 18%  
149 2% 17%  
150 1.0% 15%  
151 0.6% 14%  
152 1.2% 13%  
153 1.1% 12%  
154 1.4% 11%  
155 0.9% 9%  
156 1.0% 8%  
157 0.7% 7%  
158 0.9% 7%  
159 0.7% 6%  
160 0.8% 5%  
161 0.6% 4%  
162 0.4% 4%  
163 0.3% 3%  
164 0.6% 3%  
165 0.3% 3%  
166 0.2% 2%  
167 0.2% 2%  
168 0.3% 2%  
169 0.3% 2%  
170 0.1% 1.3%  
171 0.1% 1.2%  
172 0.1% 1.0%  
173 0.1% 0.9%  
174 0.1% 0.8%  
175 0.1% 0.7%  
176 0.1% 0.6%  
177 0.1% 0.6%  
178 0.1% 0.5%  
179 0.1% 0.4%  
180 0.1% 0.4%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
12 0.1% 99.7%  
13 0% 99.6%  
14 0.2% 99.5%  
15 0.6% 99.3%  
16 0.8% 98.7%  
17 1.4% 98%  
18 2% 97%  
19 3% 94%  
20 3% 91%  
21 5% 88%  
22 6% 83%  
23 6% 77%  
24 5% 71%  
25 5% 66%  
26 5% 61%  
27 9% 56% Median
28 4% 47%  
29 4% 44%  
30 4% 40%  
31 4% 36%  
32 2% 32%  
33 4% 29%  
34 3% 26%  
35 4% 23%  
36 4% 20%  
37 5% 16%  
38 2% 11%  
39 3% 8%  
40 2% 6%  
41 1.5% 4%  
42 0.7% 3%  
43 0.2% 2%  
44 0.2% 2%  
45 0.3% 2%  
46 0.2% 1.4%  
47 0.1% 1.1%  
48 0.2% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.8%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 4% 81%  
2 22% 77%  
3 51% 55% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 0.1% 99.8%  
16 0.4% 99.7%  
17 0.9% 99.2%  
18 0.6% 98%  
19 0.7% 98%  
20 1.4% 97%  
21 3% 96%  
22 3% 93%  
23 1.5% 89%  
24 1.5% 88%  
25 4% 86%  
26 2% 82%  
27 4% 81%  
28 1.1% 77%  
29 4% 76%  
30 3% 71%  
31 1.5% 69%  
32 4% 67%  
33 1.1% 63%  
34 9% 62%  
35 2% 53%  
36 8% 51% Median
37 4% 43%  
38 5% 39%  
39 3% 34%  
40 4% 31%  
41 5% 26%  
42 3% 22%  
43 3% 19%  
44 4% 15%  
45 2% 11%  
46 3% 10%  
47 0.6% 6%  
48 1.4% 6% Last Result
49 0.4% 4%  
50 0.6% 4%  
51 0.5% 3%  
52 0.6% 3%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.3%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 502 100% 469–534 464–542 459–549 446–558
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 466 100% 433–501 425–511 419–518 406–529
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 475 100% 445–502 440–510 436–514 424–521
Labour Party 202 438 100% 409–469 402–477 398–482 385–491
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 157 0% 122–191 112–198 104–205 94–218
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 149 0% 120–179 112–183 108–187 101–200
Conservative Party 365 121 0% 89–154 80–160 73–165 64–177

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 99.9%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0% 99.8%  
440 0% 99.8%  
441 0% 99.8%  
442 0% 99.7%  
443 0.1% 99.7%  
444 0.1% 99.6%  
445 0.1% 99.6%  
446 0.1% 99.5%  
447 0.1% 99.5%  
448 0.1% 99.4%  
449 0.1% 99.3%  
450 0.1% 99.2%  
451 0.1% 99.1%  
452 0.1% 99.0%  
453 0.1% 98.9%  
454 0.2% 98.7%  
455 0.3% 98.5%  
456 0.1% 98%  
457 0.2% 98%  
458 0.3% 98%  
459 0.4% 98%  
460 0.4% 97%  
461 0.4% 97%  
462 0.5% 96%  
463 0.7% 96%  
464 0.7% 95%  
465 0.8% 95%  
466 0.8% 94%  
467 0.9% 93%  
468 0.9% 92%  
469 1.2% 91%  
470 1.2% 90%  
471 0.9% 89%  
472 0.8% 88%  
473 1.2% 87%  
474 2% 86%  
475 1.2% 84%  
476 0.9% 83%  
477 1.3% 82%  
478 1.4% 81%  
479 1.4% 79%  
480 1.0% 78%  
481 1.1% 77%  
482 2% 76%  
483 1.3% 74%  
484 1.2% 73%  
485 1.5% 72%  
486 1.4% 70%  
487 2% 69%  
488 2% 67%  
489 1.2% 65%  
490 1.3% 64%  
491 0.9% 63%  
492 1.2% 62%  
493 0.8% 61%  
494 1.1% 60%  
495 1.3% 59%  
496 0.7% 58%  
497 2% 57%  
498 1.0% 55%  
499 1.3% 54%  
500 1.3% 53%  
501 1.0% 52% Median
502 0.8% 51%  
503 2% 50%  
504 1.3% 48%  
505 2% 47%  
506 1.3% 45%  
507 0.9% 44%  
508 1.5% 43%  
509 2% 41%  
510 1.1% 39%  
511 1.4% 38%  
512 1.4% 36%  
513 1.4% 35%  
514 2% 34%  
515 0.9% 32%  
516 2% 31%  
517 1.4% 29%  
518 1.0% 28%  
519 2% 27%  
520 2% 25%  
521 1.1% 24%  
522 1.3% 23%  
523 0.8% 21%  
524 1.3% 20%  
525 0.9% 19%  
526 1.3% 18%  
527 1.2% 17%  
528 1.0% 16%  
529 0.9% 15%  
530 1.0% 14%  
531 1.3% 13%  
532 0.5% 12%  
533 0.9% 11%  
534 0.7% 10%  
535 0.4% 9%  
536 0.6% 9%  
537 0.5% 8%  
538 0.7% 8%  
539 0.4% 7%  
540 0.5% 7%  
541 0.7% 6%  
542 0.7% 6%  
543 0.4% 5%  
544 0.5% 5%  
545 0.2% 4%  
546 0.6% 4%  
547 0.4% 3%  
548 0.3% 3%  
549 0.4% 3%  
550 0.2% 2%  
551 0.4% 2%  
552 0.3% 2%  
553 0.2% 1.3%  
554 0.1% 1.0%  
555 0.2% 0.9%  
556 0.1% 0.7%  
557 0.1% 0.6%  
558 0.1% 0.6%  
559 0.1% 0.5%  
560 0.1% 0.4%  
561 0.1% 0.3%  
562 0.1% 0.2%  
563 0% 0.2%  
564 0% 0.2%  
565 0% 0.1%  
566 0% 0.1%  
567 0% 0.1%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0.1%  
570 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.8%  
399 0% 99.8%  
400 0% 99.8%  
401 0% 99.8%  
402 0% 99.7%  
403 0% 99.7%  
404 0.1% 99.7%  
405 0.1% 99.6%  
406 0.1% 99.5%  
407 0% 99.4%  
408 0% 99.4%  
409 0.1% 99.3%  
410 0.1% 99.3%  
411 0.1% 99.2%  
412 0.2% 99.0%  
413 0.2% 98.9%  
414 0.2% 98.7%  
415 0.1% 98.5%  
416 0.2% 98%  
417 0.3% 98%  
418 0.3% 98%  
419 0.3% 98%  
420 0.4% 97%  
421 0.3% 97%  
422 0.3% 97%  
423 0.5% 96%  
424 0.5% 96%  
425 0.5% 95%  
426 0.6% 95%  
427 0.7% 94%  
428 0.6% 94%  
429 0.8% 93%  
430 0.6% 92%  
431 0.7% 92%  
432 0.6% 91%  
433 0.8% 90%  
434 1.2% 89%  
435 0.6% 88%  
436 1.1% 88%  
437 1.2% 87%  
438 1.0% 85%  
439 1.1% 84%  
440 0.8% 83%  
441 1.1% 83%  
442 2% 81%  
443 1.1% 79%  
444 0.9% 78%  
445 1.4% 77%  
446 1.1% 76%  
447 1.3% 75%  
448 1.4% 74%  
449 1.2% 72%  
450 1.5% 71%  
451 0.8% 69%  
452 1.0% 69%  
453 1.2% 68%  
454 1.2% 66%  
455 1.4% 65%  
456 1.1% 64%  
457 1.0% 63%  
458 2% 62%  
459 1.2% 60%  
460 0.7% 59%  
461 1.3% 58%  
462 0.9% 57%  
463 2% 56%  
464 1.3% 54%  
465 1.1% 53% Median
466 2% 52%  
467 1.1% 50%  
468 0.8% 49%  
469 2% 48%  
470 1.1% 46%  
471 1.4% 45%  
472 2% 44%  
473 1.2% 42%  
474 1.1% 41%  
475 2% 40%  
476 1.3% 38%  
477 1.0% 37%  
478 1.3% 36%  
479 2% 35%  
480 1.0% 33%  
481 1.1% 32%  
482 0.8% 31%  
483 1.1% 30%  
484 1.4% 29%  
485 2% 27%  
486 1.5% 26%  
487 0.8% 24%  
488 1.3% 24%  
489 1.0% 22%  
490 2% 21%  
491 1.0% 20%  
492 0.8% 19%  
493 0.8% 18%  
494 1.2% 17%  
495 1.1% 16%  
496 1.0% 15%  
497 0.5% 14%  
498 1.0% 13%  
499 0.8% 12%  
500 0.8% 12%  
501 1.1% 11%  
502 0.6% 10%  
503 0.4% 9%  
504 0.6% 9%  
505 0.7% 8%  
506 0.5% 7%  
507 0.4% 7%  
508 0.5% 6%  
509 0.5% 6%  
510 0.3% 5%  
511 0.5% 5%  
512 0.4% 5%  
513 0.4% 4%  
514 0.2% 4%  
515 0.3% 3%  
516 0.3% 3%  
517 0.4% 3%  
518 0.3% 3%  
519 0.3% 2%  
520 0.2% 2%  
521 0.2% 2%  
522 0.2% 2%  
523 0.1% 1.3%  
524 0.2% 1.2%  
525 0.1% 1.0%  
526 0.2% 0.8%  
527 0.1% 0.7%  
528 0.1% 0.6%  
529 0.1% 0.5%  
530 0.1% 0.4%  
531 0.1% 0.4%  
532 0.1% 0.3%  
533 0% 0.2%  
534 0% 0.2%  
535 0% 0.2%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0.1%  
538 0% 0.1%  
539 0% 0.1%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.8%  
418 0% 99.8%  
419 0% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0% 99.7%  
422 0.1% 99.6%  
423 0.1% 99.6%  
424 0.1% 99.5%  
425 0.1% 99.4%  
426 0.1% 99.4%  
427 0.1% 99.3%  
428 0.2% 99.2%  
429 0.1% 99.0%  
430 0.1% 98.9%  
431 0.2% 98.8%  
432 0.2% 98.6%  
433 0.2% 98%  
434 0.2% 98%  
435 0.3% 98%  
436 0.5% 98%  
437 0.5% 97%  
438 0.4% 97%  
439 0.7% 96%  
440 0.8% 96%  
441 0.7% 95%  
442 1.1% 94%  
443 1.2% 93%  
444 1.2% 92%  
445 0.9% 91%  
446 1.2% 90%  
447 2% 88%  
448 2% 87%  
449 1.5% 85%  
450 0.9% 84%  
451 2% 83%  
452 1.5% 81%  
453 2% 80%  
454 1.1% 78%  
455 2% 77%  
456 1.4% 75%  
457 1.1% 74%  
458 2% 73%  
459 2% 71%  
460 2% 69%  
461 2% 67%  
462 2% 66%  
463 1.3% 64%  
464 1.3% 62%  
465 2% 61%  
466 1.3% 59%  
467 0.9% 58%  
468 0.8% 57%  
469 0.9% 56%  
470 0.8% 55%  
471 0.5% 54%  
472 2% 54%  
473 0.7% 52%  
474 1.4% 52% Median
475 1.1% 50%  
476 2% 49%  
477 2% 47%  
478 1.2% 45%  
479 1.5% 44%  
480 2% 42%  
481 2% 41%  
482 2% 39%  
483 2% 37%  
484 2% 35%  
485 2% 33%  
486 2% 31%  
487 1.3% 29%  
488 2% 28%  
489 2% 26%  
490 1.2% 24%  
491 1.3% 23%  
492 2% 22%  
493 1.5% 20%  
494 2% 19%  
495 1.2% 17%  
496 2% 16%  
497 1.0% 14%  
498 0.7% 13%  
499 0.8% 12%  
500 0.7% 12%  
501 0.6% 11%  
502 0.6% 10%  
503 0.9% 10%  
504 0.4% 9%  
505 0.5% 8%  
506 0.5% 8%  
507 0.6% 7%  
508 0.7% 7%  
509 0.8% 6%  
510 0.5% 5%  
511 0.7% 5%  
512 0.7% 4%  
513 0.5% 3%  
514 0.5% 3%  
515 0.5% 2%  
516 0.4% 2%  
517 0.3% 2%  
518 0.3% 1.3%  
519 0.3% 1.0%  
520 0.2% 0.8%  
521 0.2% 0.6%  
522 0.1% 0.4%  
523 0.1% 0.3%  
524 0.1% 0.3%  
525 0.1% 0.2%  
526 0% 0.2%  
527 0% 0.1%  
528 0% 0.1%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.8%  
380 0% 99.8%  
381 0% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.7%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0.1% 99.6%  
385 0.1% 99.6%  
386 0.1% 99.5%  
387 0.1% 99.4%  
388 0% 99.3%  
389 0.1% 99.3%  
390 0.1% 99.2%  
391 0.2% 99.1%  
392 0.1% 98.9%  
393 0.2% 98.7%  
394 0.3% 98.5%  
395 0.2% 98%  
396 0.3% 98%  
397 0.2% 98%  
398 0.4% 98%  
399 0.5% 97%  
400 0.4% 97%  
401 0.5% 96%  
402 0.8% 96%  
403 0.8% 95%  
404 0.6% 94%  
405 0.5% 94%  
406 0.9% 93%  
407 1.0% 92%  
408 1.1% 91%  
409 1.1% 90%  
410 1.0% 89%  
411 1.1% 88%  
412 1.3% 87%  
413 1.3% 86%  
414 1.3% 84%  
415 2% 83%  
416 1.4% 82%  
417 0.8% 80%  
418 0.9% 79%  
419 2% 78%  
420 2% 76%  
421 2% 74%  
422 1.3% 72%  
423 1.0% 71%  
424 1.0% 70%  
425 1.4% 69%  
426 2% 68%  
427 1.5% 66%  
428 2% 65%  
429 1.5% 63%  
430 1.2% 61%  
431 1.0% 60%  
432 0.6% 59%  
433 0.8% 58%  
434 0.8% 58%  
435 1.4% 57%  
436 2% 55%  
437 1.4% 54%  
438 3% 52% Median
439 2% 50%  
440 1.0% 48%  
441 0.4% 47%  
442 0.6% 46%  
443 2% 45%  
444 1.5% 43%  
445 2% 42%  
446 2% 40%  
447 1.2% 39%  
448 2% 37%  
449 2% 35%  
450 1.4% 34%  
451 2% 32%  
452 2% 31%  
453 0.9% 29%  
454 2% 28%  
455 2% 26%  
456 1.4% 25%  
457 1.1% 23%  
458 1.0% 22%  
459 2% 21%  
460 2% 20%  
461 1.1% 18%  
462 1.2% 17%  
463 0.9% 16%  
464 1.2% 15%  
465 0.7% 14%  
466 0.9% 13%  
467 1.0% 12%  
468 0.8% 11%  
469 0.8% 10%  
470 0.5% 9%  
471 0.6% 9%  
472 0.9% 8%  
473 0.8% 7%  
474 0.6% 7%  
475 0.4% 6%  
476 0.5% 6%  
477 0.5% 5%  
478 0.5% 5%  
479 0.3% 4%  
480 0.4% 4%  
481 0.5% 3%  
482 0.5% 3%  
483 0.2% 2%  
484 0.2% 2%  
485 0.3% 2%  
486 0.2% 2%  
487 0.2% 1.4%  
488 0.2% 1.1%  
489 0.2% 0.9%  
490 0.1% 0.7%  
491 0.1% 0.6%  
492 0.1% 0.5%  
493 0.1% 0.4%  
494 0.1% 0.3%  
495 0% 0.2%  
496 0% 0.2%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.8%  
89 0% 99.8%  
90 0% 99.8%  
91 0.1% 99.7%  
92 0% 99.7%  
93 0.1% 99.6%  
94 0.1% 99.5%  
95 0.1% 99.4%  
96 0.1% 99.3%  
97 0.1% 99.2%  
98 0.2% 99.1%  
99 0.2% 98.9%  
100 0.3% 98.7%  
101 0.2% 98%  
102 0.3% 98%  
103 0.2% 98%  
104 0.4% 98%  
105 0.3% 97%  
106 0.2% 97%  
107 0.3% 97%  
108 0.2% 97%  
109 0.5% 96%  
110 0.4% 96%  
111 0.3% 95%  
112 0.4% 95%  
113 0.3% 95%  
114 0.6% 94%  
115 0.2% 94%  
116 0.5% 94%  
117 0.8% 93%  
118 0.5% 92%  
119 0.4% 92%  
120 0.7% 91%  
121 0.7% 91%  
122 1.1% 90%  
123 0.4% 89%  
124 0.9% 88%  
125 0.7% 88%  
126 1.2% 87%  
127 1.0% 86%  
128 0.7% 85%  
129 1.2% 84%  
130 0.8% 83%  
131 0.8% 82%  
132 1.4% 81%  
133 1.0% 80%  
134 0.9% 79%  
135 1.1% 78%  
136 1.0% 77%  
137 0.8% 76%  
138 2% 75%  
139 1.5% 73%  
140 1.1% 72%  
141 0.8% 71%  
142 1.0% 70%  
143 1.0% 69%  
144 1.3% 68%  
145 2% 67%  
146 1.2% 65%  
147 1.2% 64%  
148 1.0% 63%  
149 2% 62%  
150 1.1% 60%  
151 2% 59%  
152 1.1% 57%  
153 1.4% 56%  
154 1.3% 54%  
155 0.8% 53%  
156 1.3% 52%  
157 2% 51% Median
158 1.2% 49%  
159 1.3% 48%  
160 2% 47%  
161 1.0% 45%  
162 1.4% 44%  
163 1.2% 43%  
164 1.0% 41%  
165 1.1% 40%  
166 0.8% 39%  
167 1.2% 39%  
168 1.2% 37%  
169 1.2% 36%  
170 2% 35%  
171 1.2% 33%  
172 0.8% 32%  
173 0.8% 31%  
174 2% 30%  
175 2% 29%  
176 0.8% 27%  
177 2% 26%  
178 0.8% 25%  
179 2% 24%  
180 0.9% 22%  
181 2% 21%  
182 1.3% 20%  
183 1.3% 18%  
184 0.6% 17%  
185 1.2% 16%  
186 1.1% 15%  
187 1.0% 14%  
188 0.8% 13%  
189 1.1% 12%  
190 0.8% 11%  
191 0.7% 10%  
192 0.7% 10%  
193 0.7% 9%  
194 0.9% 8%  
195 0.5% 7%  
196 0.7% 7%  
197 0.4% 6%  
198 0.6% 6%  
199 0.5% 5%  
200 0.5% 4%  
201 0.5% 4%  
202 0.3% 3%  
203 0.3% 3%  
204 0.4% 3%  
205 0.3% 3%  
206 0.3% 2%  
207 0.2% 2%  
208 0.2% 2%  
209 0.2% 2%  
210 0.1% 1.4%  
211 0.2% 1.2%  
212 0.1% 1.0%  
213 0.1% 0.9%  
214 0.1% 0.8%  
215 0% 0.7%  
216 0.1% 0.6%  
217 0.1% 0.6%  
218 0.1% 0.5%  
219 0.1% 0.4%  
220 0% 0.3%  
221 0% 0.3%  
222 0% 0.3%  
223 0% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.2%  
225 0% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.1% 99.7%  
100 0.1% 99.7%  
101 0.1% 99.6%  
102 0.1% 99.5%  
103 0.2% 99.3%  
104 0.2% 99.1%  
105 0.4% 98.9%  
106 0.5% 98%  
107 0.3% 98%  
108 0.4% 98%  
109 0.5% 97%  
110 0.7% 97%  
111 0.7% 96%  
112 0.5% 95%  
113 0.8% 95%  
114 0.3% 94%  
115 0.7% 94%  
116 0.6% 93%  
117 0.6% 92%  
118 0.7% 92%  
119 0.6% 91%  
120 0.6% 90%  
121 0.4% 90%  
122 0.6% 89%  
123 0.7% 89%  
124 0.4% 88%  
125 0.9% 88%  
126 1.0% 87%  
127 2% 86%  
128 1.3% 84%  
129 2% 83%  
130 2% 81%  
131 1.2% 80%  
132 1.0% 79%  
133 2% 78%  
134 1.4% 76%  
135 0.9% 74%  
136 2% 74%  
137 1.2% 72%  
138 2% 71%  
139 1.4% 68%  
140 2% 67%  
141 2% 65%  
142 2% 63%  
143 2% 61%  
144 0.9% 59%  
145 2% 58%  
146 2% 56%  
147 2% 54%  
148 1.3% 52% Median
149 2% 51%  
150 0.8% 49%  
151 1.3% 48%  
152 0.8% 47%  
153 0.7% 46%  
154 0.8% 46%  
155 0.6% 45%  
156 1.1% 44%  
157 0.7% 43%  
158 2% 42%  
159 2% 40%  
160 1.3% 39%  
161 2% 38%  
162 2% 36%  
163 2% 34%  
164 2% 32%  
165 2% 30%  
166 2% 29%  
167 1.2% 27%  
168 2% 26%  
169 1.3% 24%  
170 2% 23%  
171 2% 21%  
172 2% 20%  
173 1.1% 18%  
174 1.3% 17%  
175 2% 16%  
176 2% 14%  
177 2% 13%  
178 0.9% 11%  
179 1.4% 10%  
180 1.1% 9%  
181 1.3% 8%  
182 0.7% 6%  
183 0.7% 6%  
184 0.9% 5%  
185 0.5% 4%  
186 0.5% 3%  
187 0.6% 3%  
188 0.2% 2%  
189 0.3% 2%  
190 0.2% 2%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.2% 1.4%  
193 0.1% 1.3%  
194 0.1% 1.1%  
195 0.2% 1.0%  
196 0.1% 0.8%  
197 0.1% 0.7%  
198 0.1% 0.7%  
199 0.1% 0.6%  
200 0.1% 0.5%  
201 0.1% 0.5%  
202 0% 0.4%  
203 0.1% 0.3%  
204 0% 0.3%  
205 0% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.1% 99.6%  
64 0.1% 99.6%  
65 0.1% 99.5%  
66 0.1% 99.4%  
67 0.1% 99.3%  
68 0.1% 99.2%  
69 0.2% 99.1%  
70 0.3% 98.9%  
71 0.3% 98.5%  
72 0.4% 98%  
73 0.4% 98%  
74 0.2% 97%  
75 0.4% 97%  
76 0.4% 97%  
77 0.4% 96%  
78 0.4% 96%  
79 0.4% 96%  
80 0.7% 95%  
81 0.4% 94%  
82 0.7% 94%  
83 0.6% 93%  
84 0.6% 93%  
85 0.5% 92%  
86 0.5% 92%  
87 0.6% 91%  
88 0.4% 91%  
89 0.7% 90%  
90 0.8% 89%  
91 1.0% 89%  
92 1.0% 88%  
93 1.0% 87%  
94 0.8% 86%  
95 0.9% 85%  
96 0.8% 84%  
97 1.4% 83%  
98 1.0% 82%  
99 0.8% 81%  
100 1.0% 80%  
101 1.0% 79%  
102 1.2% 78%  
103 1.2% 77%  
104 1.4% 76%  
105 1.3% 74%  
106 1.1% 73%  
107 2% 72%  
108 1.5% 70%  
109 1.1% 69%  
110 2% 68%  
111 1.3% 66%  
112 1.2% 65%  
113 1.1% 64%  
114 2% 62%  
115 2% 60%  
116 1.3% 59%  
117 1.3% 57%  
118 1.3% 56%  
119 2% 55%  
120 2% 53%  
121 1.1% 51% Median
122 1.0% 50%  
123 1.2% 49%  
124 1.4% 48%  
125 0.8% 46%  
126 2% 46%  
127 0.8% 44%  
128 1.0% 43%  
129 1.2% 42%  
130 1.0% 41%  
131 1.4% 40%  
132 0.8% 39%  
133 1.1% 38%  
134 1.0% 37%  
135 2% 36%  
136 2% 34%  
137 2% 33%  
138 1.0% 31%  
139 2% 30%  
140 0.7% 28%  
141 2% 27%  
142 2% 26%  
143 2% 24%  
144 1.0% 23%  
145 2% 21%  
146 0.9% 20%  
147 0.9% 19%  
148 1.4% 18%  
149 2% 17%  
150 1.0% 15%  
151 0.6% 14%  
152 1.2% 13%  
153 1.1% 12%  
154 1.4% 11%  
155 0.9% 9%  
156 1.0% 8%  
157 0.7% 7%  
158 0.9% 7%  
159 0.7% 6%  
160 0.8% 5%  
161 0.6% 4%  
162 0.4% 4%  
163 0.3% 3%  
164 0.6% 3%  
165 0.3% 3%  
166 0.2% 2%  
167 0.2% 2%  
168 0.3% 2%  
169 0.3% 2%  
170 0.1% 1.3%  
171 0.1% 1.2%  
172 0.1% 1.0%  
173 0.1% 0.9%  
174 0.1% 0.8%  
175 0.1% 0.7%  
176 0.1% 0.6%  
177 0.1% 0.6%  
178 0.1% 0.5%  
179 0.1% 0.4%  
180 0.1% 0.4%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations