Opinion Poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 29 January 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 48.8% 47.3–50.3% 46.9–50.8% 46.5–51.1% 45.8–51.8%
Conservative Party 43.6% 23.9% 22.6–25.2% 22.3–25.6% 22.0–25.9% 21.4–26.5%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 11.9% 11.0–12.9% 10.7–13.2% 10.5–13.5% 10.1–14.0%
Brexit Party 2.0% 5.7% 5.0–6.4% 4.8–6.6% 4.7–6.8% 4.4–7.2%
Green Party 2.8% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.3–6.0% 4.2–6.2% 3.9–6.6%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 3.3% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 426 409–451 405–456 402–460 394–469
Conservative Party 365 116 85–139 79–143 74–147 64–157
Liberal Democrats 11 45 37–52 36–54 34–57 29–61
Brexit Party 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–6
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Scottish National Party 48 36 29–41 27–43 24–45 21–50
Plaid Cymru 4 1 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.8%  
390 0% 99.8%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.7%  
393 0.1% 99.6%  
394 0.1% 99.5%  
395 0.1% 99.5%  
396 0.1% 99.4%  
397 0.2% 99.3%  
398 0.3% 99.1%  
399 0.3% 98.8%  
400 0.3% 98.5%  
401 0.5% 98%  
402 0.5% 98%  
403 0.5% 97%  
404 0.6% 97%  
405 1.2% 96%  
406 1.3% 95%  
407 2% 94%  
408 1.4% 92%  
409 3% 90%  
410 1.1% 88%  
411 1.4% 86%  
412 2% 85%  
413 2% 83%  
414 3% 82%  
415 3% 79%  
416 1.4% 76%  
417 1.5% 75%  
418 3% 73%  
419 3% 70%  
420 3% 67%  
421 2% 64%  
422 2% 62%  
423 5% 60%  
424 1.0% 55%  
425 3% 54%  
426 2% 52% Median
427 2% 49%  
428 2% 48%  
429 1.3% 46%  
430 0.8% 45%  
431 1.2% 44%  
432 2% 43%  
433 0.8% 41%  
434 4% 40%  
435 0.6% 37%  
436 1.4% 36%  
437 2% 35%  
438 1.3% 32%  
439 2% 31%  
440 0.9% 29%  
441 3% 28%  
442 1.2% 25%  
443 2% 24%  
444 2% 22%  
445 2% 21%  
446 1.1% 19%  
447 2% 18%  
448 2% 16%  
449 1.4% 14%  
450 1.0% 12%  
451 2% 11%  
452 0.9% 9%  
453 2% 9%  
454 1.0% 7%  
455 0.7% 6%  
456 0.5% 5%  
457 0.5% 5%  
458 0.6% 4%  
459 0.8% 4%  
460 0.3% 3%  
461 0.3% 2%  
462 0.3% 2%  
463 0.4% 2%  
464 0.2% 1.5%  
465 0.2% 1.3%  
466 0.1% 1.1%  
467 0.3% 1.0%  
468 0.1% 0.7%  
469 0.1% 0.6%  
470 0.1% 0.5%  
471 0% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.3%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.1% 99.7%  
64 0.1% 99.6%  
65 0.1% 99.5%  
66 0.1% 99.3%  
67 0.1% 99.2%  
68 0.1% 99.1%  
69 0.2% 99.0%  
70 0.3% 98.8%  
71 0.2% 98.5%  
72 0.2% 98%  
73 0.3% 98%  
74 0.3% 98%  
75 0.3% 97%  
76 0.4% 97%  
77 0.2% 97%  
78 0.6% 97%  
79 1.0% 96%  
80 0.7% 95%  
81 0.4% 94%  
82 1.1% 94%  
83 1.1% 93%  
84 0.5% 92%  
85 1.2% 91%  
86 0.3% 90%  
87 2% 89%  
88 2% 88%  
89 0.8% 86%  
90 0.9% 85%  
91 1.1% 84%  
92 0.6% 83%  
93 2% 83%  
94 1.1% 81%  
95 1.4% 79%  
96 2% 78%  
97 0.7% 76%  
98 2% 75%  
99 0.8% 73%  
100 2% 72%  
101 0.7% 70%  
102 2% 70%  
103 1.4% 68%  
104 1.5% 67%  
105 1.5% 65%  
106 0.8% 64%  
107 0.6% 63%  
108 0.9% 62%  
109 2% 61%  
110 0.5% 59%  
111 2% 59%  
112 2% 57%  
113 0.6% 55%  
114 1.4% 54%  
115 3% 53%  
116 1.5% 50% Median
117 1.4% 49%  
118 2% 47%  
119 2% 46%  
120 2% 44%  
121 1.4% 42%  
122 1.3% 40%  
123 2% 39%  
124 3% 37%  
125 3% 34%  
126 1.1% 31%  
127 2% 30%  
128 2% 28%  
129 1.0% 26%  
130 2% 25%  
131 2% 23%  
132 2% 21%  
133 1.4% 19%  
134 2% 17%  
135 1.2% 16%  
136 1.4% 14%  
137 1.1% 13%  
138 1.4% 12%  
139 1.3% 10%  
140 1.2% 9%  
141 1.5% 8%  
142 1.0% 6%  
143 0.8% 5%  
144 0.7% 5%  
145 0.5% 4%  
146 0.6% 3%  
147 0.5% 3%  
148 0.3% 2%  
149 0.3% 2%  
150 0.3% 2%  
151 0.2% 1.4%  
152 0.2% 1.1%  
153 0.1% 0.9%  
154 0.2% 0.8%  
155 0.1% 0.7%  
156 0.1% 0.6%  
157 0.1% 0.5%  
158 0.1% 0.4%  
159 0.1% 0.3%  
160 0% 0.3%  
161 0% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.1% 99.8%  
28 0.1% 99.7%  
29 0.2% 99.7%  
30 0.2% 99.4%  
31 0.4% 99.3%  
32 0.7% 98.8%  
33 0.6% 98%  
34 0.6% 98%  
35 0.9% 97%  
36 2% 96%  
37 4% 94%  
38 3% 90%  
39 4% 87%  
40 6% 83%  
41 9% 77%  
42 10% 69%  
43 6% 58%  
44 1.1% 53%  
45 3% 52% Median
46 5% 49%  
47 4% 43%  
48 2% 40%  
49 2% 38%  
50 13% 36%  
51 12% 23%  
52 4% 11%  
53 2% 7%  
54 2% 5%  
55 0.8% 4%  
56 0.3% 3%  
57 0.6% 3%  
58 0.3% 2%  
59 0.6% 2%  
60 0.4% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 59% 99.6% Median
4 38% 40%  
5 1.1% 2%  
6 0.3% 0.7%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 84% 100% Last Result, Median
2 15% 16%  
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.4% 99.7%  
22 1.2% 99.3%  
23 0.6% 98%  
24 0.5% 98%  
25 1.0% 97%  
26 0.7% 96%  
27 1.4% 95%  
28 0.9% 94%  
29 4% 93%  
30 2% 89%  
31 0.6% 87%  
32 6% 86%  
33 0% 80%  
34 24% 80%  
35 0.3% 56%  
36 15% 56% Median
37 2% 41%  
38 16% 39%  
39 2% 22%  
40 5% 20%  
41 8% 15%  
42 1.1% 7%  
43 2% 6%  
44 1.0% 4%  
45 0.6% 3%  
46 0.9% 2%  
47 0.2% 1.4%  
48 0.2% 1.2% Last Result
49 0.3% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 34% 84% Median
2 26% 49%  
3 21% 23%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 266 511 100% 488–540 484–545 480–550 470–560
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 265 510 100% 487–539 483–544 479–549 469–559
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 508 100% 485–536 481–542 477–546 468–558
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 217 474 100% 451–503 446–509 441–514 432–524
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 472 100% 450–501 445–507 440–512 431–522
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 254 464 100% 445–489 443–493 440–496 432–507
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 462 100% 444–487 441–491 438–495 431–505
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 206 428 100% 410–453 406–458 404–462 396–471
Labour Party 202 426 100% 409–451 405–456 402–460 394–469
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 161 0% 134–180 130–182 127–186 117–193
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 417 153 0% 122–176 116–180 111–185 101–194
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 151 0% 120–175 114–179 109–184 99–193
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 369 118 0% 87–140 81–145 76–149 66–158
Conservative Party 365 116 0% 85–139 79–143 74–147 64–157

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100% Last Result
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 100%  
455 0% 100%  
456 0% 100%  
457 0% 100%  
458 0% 99.9%  
459 0% 99.9%  
460 0% 99.9%  
461 0% 99.9%  
462 0% 99.9%  
463 0.1% 99.9%  
464 0% 99.8%  
465 0% 99.8%  
466 0% 99.8%  
467 0% 99.8%  
468 0.1% 99.7%  
469 0.1% 99.6%  
470 0.1% 99.5%  
471 0.1% 99.4%  
472 0.1% 99.4%  
473 0.1% 99.2%  
474 0.2% 99.1%  
475 0.2% 99.0%  
476 0.3% 98.8%  
477 0.3% 98%  
478 0.3% 98%  
479 0.3% 98%  
480 0.7% 98%  
481 0.7% 97%  
482 0.3% 96%  
483 0.7% 96%  
484 1.2% 95%  
485 0.8% 94%  
486 2% 93%  
487 0.7% 91%  
488 2% 90%  
489 1.2% 89%  
490 0.8% 88%  
491 2% 87%  
492 2% 85%  
493 1.3% 83%  
494 1.3% 82%  
495 2% 81%  
496 1.5% 78%  
497 2% 77%  
498 2% 75%  
499 2% 73%  
500 2% 71%  
501 2% 69%  
502 1.2% 67%  
503 3% 66%  
504 2% 63%  
505 2% 61%  
506 2% 59%  
507 2% 57%  
508 2% 55%  
509 3% 54% Median
510 0.5% 51%  
511 2% 51%  
512 2% 48%  
513 1.4% 47%  
514 2% 45%  
515 2% 44%  
516 1.3% 42%  
517 2% 41%  
518 1.2% 39%  
519 1.2% 38%  
520 1.3% 37%  
521 0.4% 35%  
522 1.4% 35%  
523 1.1% 33%  
524 2% 32%  
525 1.5% 30%  
526 2% 29%  
527 1.5% 27%  
528 1.4% 26%  
529 1.3% 24%  
530 3% 23%  
531 1.3% 20%  
532 2% 19%  
533 0.9% 17%  
534 0.5% 16%  
535 2% 16%  
536 1.0% 14%  
537 2% 13%  
538 0.8% 11%  
539 0.2% 10%  
540 1.3% 10%  
541 1.3% 9%  
542 0.8% 8%  
543 0.5% 7%  
544 0.9% 6%  
545 0.5% 5%  
546 0.9% 5%  
547 0.6% 4%  
548 0.2% 3%  
549 0.5% 3%  
550 0.2% 3%  
551 0.3% 2%  
552 0.4% 2%  
553 0.2% 2%  
554 0.2% 2%  
555 0.2% 1.4%  
556 0.2% 1.2%  
557 0.1% 1.0%  
558 0.1% 0.8%  
559 0.1% 0.7%  
560 0.1% 0.6%  
561 0.1% 0.5%  
562 0.1% 0.4%  
563 0.1% 0.3%  
564 0% 0.3%  
565 0.1% 0.2%  
566 0% 0.2%  
567 0% 0.1%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0.1%  
570 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100% Last Result
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 100%  
455 0% 100%  
456 0% 100%  
457 0% 99.9%  
458 0% 99.9%  
459 0% 99.9%  
460 0% 99.9%  
461 0% 99.9%  
462 0.1% 99.9%  
463 0% 99.8%  
464 0% 99.8%  
465 0% 99.8%  
466 0% 99.8%  
467 0.1% 99.7%  
468 0.1% 99.6%  
469 0.1% 99.5%  
470 0.1% 99.4%  
471 0.2% 99.4%  
472 0.1% 99.2%  
473 0.2% 99.1%  
474 0.2% 98.9%  
475 0.3% 98.8%  
476 0.3% 98%  
477 0.3% 98%  
478 0.3% 98%  
479 0.8% 98%  
480 0.7% 97%  
481 0.3% 96%  
482 0.8% 96%  
483 1.3% 95%  
484 0.7% 94%  
485 2% 93%  
486 0.8% 91%  
487 2% 90%  
488 1.1% 89%  
489 0.9% 87%  
490 2% 87%  
491 1.3% 85%  
492 1.1% 83%  
493 2% 82%  
494 2% 81%  
495 1.5% 78%  
496 2% 77%  
497 1.4% 74%  
498 2% 73%  
499 1.3% 71%  
500 2% 69%  
501 1.4% 67%  
502 3% 66%  
503 2% 62%  
504 2% 60%  
505 1.3% 58%  
506 2% 57%  
507 2% 55%  
508 2% 53% Median
509 0.6% 51%  
510 2% 51%  
511 2% 48%  
512 2% 46%  
513 1.0% 45%  
514 2% 44%  
515 2% 42%  
516 1.5% 40%  
517 2% 39%  
518 0.5% 37%  
519 1.4% 36%  
520 0.4% 35%  
521 2% 35%  
522 1.0% 33%  
523 3% 32%  
524 0.8% 29%  
525 2% 29%  
526 1.5% 27%  
527 2% 26%  
528 1.3% 24%  
529 3% 23%  
530 1.2% 20%  
531 2% 19%  
532 0.7% 17%  
533 0.5% 16%  
534 2% 16%  
535 1.3% 14%  
536 2% 13%  
537 0.6% 11%  
538 0.3% 10%  
539 2% 10%  
540 1.3% 8%  
541 0.5% 7%  
542 0.7% 7%  
543 0.8% 6%  
544 0.5% 5%  
545 0.8% 5%  
546 0.6% 4%  
547 0.3% 3%  
548 0.3% 3%  
549 0.2% 3%  
550 0.2% 2%  
551 0.4% 2%  
552 0.1% 2%  
553 0.2% 2%  
554 0.3% 1.4%  
555 0.1% 1.1%  
556 0.1% 0.9%  
557 0.1% 0.8%  
558 0.1% 0.7%  
559 0.2% 0.6%  
560 0.1% 0.5%  
561 0.1% 0.4%  
562 0.1% 0.3%  
563 0.1% 0.3%  
564 0% 0.2%  
565 0% 0.2%  
566 0% 0.1%  
567 0% 0.1%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 100%  
455 0% 100%  
456 0% 99.9%  
457 0% 99.9%  
458 0% 99.9%  
459 0% 99.9%  
460 0% 99.9%  
461 0% 99.8%  
462 0% 99.8%  
463 0% 99.8%  
464 0.1% 99.8%  
465 0.1% 99.7%  
466 0.1% 99.6%  
467 0.1% 99.6%  
468 0.1% 99.5%  
469 0.1% 99.4%  
470 0.1% 99.3%  
471 0.2% 99.2%  
472 0.2% 99.0%  
473 0.2% 98.8%  
474 0.3% 98.6%  
475 0.3% 98%  
476 0.5% 98%  
477 0.4% 98%  
478 0.6% 97%  
479 0.7% 97%  
480 0.6% 96%  
481 1.3% 95%  
482 0.7% 94%  
483 0.9% 93%  
484 1.1% 92%  
485 2% 91%  
486 2% 90%  
487 1.2% 88%  
488 2% 87%  
489 1.2% 85%  
490 1.5% 84%  
491 2% 83%  
492 1.1% 81%  
493 3% 80%  
494 2% 77%  
495 1.4% 75%  
496 1.4% 73%  
497 3% 72%  
498 0.6% 69%  
499 3% 69%  
500 2% 66%  
501 2% 64%  
502 3% 62%  
503 2% 59%  
504 2% 58%  
505 3% 56%  
506 0.9% 53%  
507 2% 52% Median
508 1.0% 50%  
509 2% 49%  
510 2% 48%  
511 2% 46%  
512 2% 44%  
513 2% 42%  
514 0.9% 40%  
515 0.9% 40%  
516 2% 39%  
517 0.3% 36%  
518 1.3% 36%  
519 0.7% 35%  
520 2% 34%  
521 3% 32%  
522 1.2% 30%  
523 1.3% 29%  
524 1.2% 27%  
525 2% 26%  
526 1.0% 24%  
527 1.0% 23%  
528 3% 22%  
529 0.5% 19%  
530 1.5% 18%  
531 1.5% 17%  
532 2% 15%  
533 0.7% 14%  
534 1.0% 13%  
535 1.3% 12%  
536 0.8% 11%  
537 1.1% 10%  
538 1.3% 9%  
539 0.9% 8%  
540 0.6% 7%  
541 0.6% 6%  
542 0.9% 5%  
543 0.7% 5%  
544 0.3% 4%  
545 0.4% 4%  
546 0.7% 3%  
547 0.2% 2%  
548 0.1% 2%  
549 0.2% 2%  
550 0.4% 2%  
551 0.2% 2%  
552 0.2% 1.4%  
553 0.2% 1.2%  
554 0.1% 1.0%  
555 0.1% 0.9%  
556 0.1% 0.7%  
557 0.1% 0.6%  
558 0.1% 0.5%  
559 0.1% 0.4%  
560 0.1% 0.3%  
561 0.1% 0.3%  
562 0% 0.2%  
563 0% 0.2%  
564 0% 0.1%  
565 0% 0.1%  
566 0% 0.1%  
567 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100% Last Result
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.8%  
428 0% 99.8%  
429 0.1% 99.7%  
430 0.1% 99.7%  
431 0.1% 99.6%  
432 0.1% 99.6%  
433 0.1% 99.5%  
434 0.1% 99.4%  
435 0.1% 99.3%  
436 0.3% 99.2%  
437 0.2% 98.9%  
438 0.1% 98.7%  
439 0.5% 98.6%  
440 0.3% 98%  
441 0.4% 98%  
442 0.2% 97%  
443 0.4% 97%  
444 0.6% 97%  
445 0.6% 96%  
446 0.9% 96%  
447 1.0% 95%  
448 0.5% 94%  
449 2% 93%  
450 1.0% 92%  
451 2% 91%  
452 2% 89%  
453 0.9% 88%  
454 1.3% 87%  
455 0.5% 85%  
456 3% 85%  
457 2% 82%  
458 0.8% 79%  
459 1.3% 79%  
460 2% 77%  
461 2% 76%  
462 2% 74%  
463 2% 72%  
464 3% 70%  
465 2% 67%  
466 4% 65%  
467 0.8% 62%  
468 1.1% 61%  
469 2% 60%  
470 2% 58%  
471 2% 56%  
472 3% 54% Median
473 1.1% 52%  
474 2% 50%  
475 1.3% 48%  
476 0.8% 47%  
477 1.1% 46%  
478 2% 45%  
479 2% 43%  
480 2% 40%  
481 1.3% 39%  
482 2% 38%  
483 1.1% 36%  
484 0.8% 35%  
485 1.0% 34%  
486 0.7% 33%  
487 2% 32%  
488 2% 31%  
489 3% 29%  
490 1.3% 27%  
491 0.9% 25%  
492 0.8% 24%  
493 3% 24%  
494 1.2% 20%  
495 1.1% 19%  
496 0.9% 18%  
497 1.2% 17%  
498 1.1% 16%  
499 0.5% 15%  
500 2% 14%  
501 2% 13%  
502 0.9% 11%  
503 0.8% 10%  
504 1.5% 10%  
505 1.1% 8%  
506 0.6% 7%  
507 0.5% 6%  
508 0.5% 6%  
509 0.5% 5%  
510 0.6% 5%  
511 0.6% 4%  
512 0.4% 4%  
513 0.5% 3%  
514 0.4% 3%  
515 0.3% 2%  
516 0.1% 2%  
517 0.2% 2%  
518 0.3% 2%  
519 0.2% 1.3%  
520 0.1% 1.1%  
521 0.1% 1.0%  
522 0.1% 0.9%  
523 0.2% 0.8%  
524 0.1% 0.6%  
525 0.1% 0.5%  
526 0% 0.4%  
527 0.1% 0.3%  
528 0% 0.2%  
529 0% 0.2%  
530 0% 0.2%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.8%  
426 0% 99.8%  
427 0% 99.8%  
428 0.1% 99.7%  
429 0.1% 99.7%  
430 0.1% 99.6%  
431 0.1% 99.5%  
432 0.1% 99.4%  
433 0.1% 99.3%  
434 0.1% 99.2%  
435 0.2% 99.1%  
436 0.3% 98.9%  
437 0.1% 98.6%  
438 0.5% 98.5%  
439 0.3% 98%  
440 0.3% 98%  
441 0.4% 97%  
442 0.5% 97%  
443 0.5% 97%  
444 0.7% 96%  
445 0.8% 95%  
446 0.8% 95%  
447 1.2% 94%  
448 1.2% 93%  
449 1.2% 91%  
450 2% 90%  
451 2% 89%  
452 0.8% 87%  
453 1.4% 86%  
454 1.1% 85%  
455 3% 84%  
456 2% 81%  
457 2% 79%  
458 2% 78%  
459 2% 76%  
460 2% 74%  
461 2% 73%  
462 1.1% 70%  
463 2% 69%  
464 2% 67%  
465 4% 65%  
466 0.9% 61%  
467 1.1% 60%  
468 2% 59%  
469 2% 57%  
470 2% 55%  
471 2% 53% Median
472 1.1% 50%  
473 2% 49%  
474 2% 47%  
475 1.2% 46%  
476 2% 45%  
477 1.2% 43%  
478 2% 42%  
479 2% 40%  
480 1.3% 38%  
481 1.3% 37%  
482 1.0% 35%  
483 2% 34%  
484 0.7% 33%  
485 1.3% 32%  
486 1.2% 31%  
487 2% 30%  
488 1.1% 27%  
489 2% 26%  
490 0.5% 24%  
491 1.4% 24%  
492 4% 23%  
493 0.8% 19%  
494 1.0% 18%  
495 0.6% 17%  
496 1.0% 17%  
497 2% 16%  
498 1.3% 14%  
499 2% 13%  
500 0.7% 11%  
501 0.8% 10%  
502 0.6% 10%  
503 2% 9%  
504 1.1% 7%  
505 0.5% 6%  
506 0.4% 6%  
507 0.4% 5%  
508 0.6% 5%  
509 0.9% 4%  
510 0.4% 4%  
511 0.2% 3%  
512 0.7% 3%  
513 0.3% 2%  
514 0.1% 2%  
515 0.1% 2%  
516 0.2% 2%  
517 0.4% 1.5%  
518 0.1% 1.1%  
519 0.1% 1.0%  
520 0.1% 0.9%  
521 0.1% 0.7%  
522 0.1% 0.6%  
523 0.1% 0.5%  
524 0.1% 0.4%  
525 0% 0.3%  
526 0.1% 0.3%  
527 0% 0.2%  
528 0.1% 0.2%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100% Last Result
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.8%  
428 0.1% 99.8%  
429 0% 99.7%  
430 0% 99.7%  
431 0.1% 99.6%  
432 0.1% 99.6%  
433 0.1% 99.5%  
434 0.2% 99.4%  
435 0.2% 99.2%  
436 0.3% 99.0%  
437 0.2% 98.7%  
438 0.4% 98%  
439 0.4% 98%  
440 0.6% 98%  
441 0.6% 97%  
442 0.8% 96%  
443 1.2% 96%  
444 3% 94%  
445 2% 92%  
446 1.4% 90%  
447 1.5% 88%  
448 1.3% 87%  
449 3% 86%  
450 1.3% 83%  
451 2% 82%  
452 2% 79%  
453 3% 77%  
454 3% 74%  
455 1.2% 71%  
456 0.5% 70%  
457 3% 69%  
458 3% 67%  
459 3% 63%  
460 4% 60%  
461 1.1% 56%  
462 1.4% 55%  
463 3% 54% Median
464 3% 50%  
465 2% 48%  
466 2% 45%  
467 1.4% 44%  
468 0.7% 42%  
469 0.4% 41%  
470 0.6% 41%  
471 1.1% 41%  
472 2% 39%  
473 1.2% 38%  
474 1.1% 36%  
475 2% 35%  
476 3% 34%  
477 3% 31%  
478 2% 28%  
479 0.8% 27%  
480 3% 26%  
481 0.8% 23%  
482 3% 22%  
483 1.4% 19%  
484 2% 18%  
485 2% 15%  
486 2% 14%  
487 0.9% 11%  
488 0.4% 11%  
489 1.1% 10%  
490 1.0% 9%  
491 2% 8%  
492 1.0% 6%  
493 0.8% 5%  
494 1.2% 5%  
495 0.9% 4%  
496 0.3% 3%  
497 0.1% 2%  
498 0.1% 2%  
499 0.1% 2%  
500 0.3% 2%  
501 0.2% 2%  
502 0.4% 1.5%  
503 0.1% 1.1%  
504 0.2% 0.9%  
505 0.2% 0.8%  
506 0.1% 0.6%  
507 0.1% 0.5%  
508 0.1% 0.4%  
509 0.1% 0.4%  
510 0.1% 0.3%  
511 0.1% 0.2%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.8%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0% 99.7%  
428 0.1% 99.7%  
429 0% 99.6%  
430 0.1% 99.6%  
431 0.1% 99.5%  
432 0.1% 99.4%  
433 0.1% 99.3%  
434 0.3% 99.1%  
435 0.3% 98.9%  
436 0.4% 98.6%  
437 0.4% 98%  
438 0.4% 98%  
439 0.9% 97%  
440 0.6% 96%  
441 1.2% 96%  
442 1.2% 95%  
443 2% 93%  
444 2% 91%  
445 1.4% 89%  
446 2% 88%  
447 2% 86%  
448 2% 84%  
449 2% 82%  
450 2% 81%  
451 3% 78%  
452 4% 75%  
453 1.4% 72%  
454 0.6% 70%  
455 2% 70%  
456 2% 68%  
457 6% 66%  
458 1.4% 60%  
459 3% 59%  
460 2% 56%  
461 3% 54%  
462 4% 51% Median
463 0.9% 47%  
464 2% 47%  
465 2% 45%  
466 0.4% 43%  
467 0.9% 42%  
468 0.4% 41%  
469 0.8% 41%  
470 3% 40%  
471 0.9% 37%  
472 1.3% 36%  
473 1.1% 35%  
474 1.1% 34%  
475 4% 33%  
476 2% 29%  
477 2% 27%  
478 1.5% 25%  
479 1.5% 24%  
480 1.3% 22%  
481 4% 21%  
482 2% 17%  
483 1.5% 16%  
484 1.0% 14%  
485 2% 13%  
486 0.9% 11%  
487 0.8% 10%  
488 0.9% 9%  
489 2% 8%  
490 0.9% 6%  
491 0.8% 6%  
492 0.9% 5%  
493 1.0% 4%  
494 0.3% 3%  
495 0.3% 3%  
496 0.1% 2%  
497 0.1% 2%  
498 0.1% 2%  
499 0.4% 2%  
500 0.3% 2%  
501 0.3% 1.2%  
502 0.1% 0.9%  
503 0.2% 0.8%  
504 0.1% 0.6%  
505 0.1% 0.5%  
506 0.1% 0.5%  
507 0.1% 0.3%  
508 0.1% 0.3%  
509 0.1% 0.2%  
510 0.1% 0.2%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100% Last Result
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0% 99.7%  
394 0.1% 99.7%  
395 0.1% 99.6%  
396 0.1% 99.5%  
397 0.1% 99.4%  
398 0.1% 99.3%  
399 0.3% 99.2%  
400 0.4% 98.9%  
401 0.3% 98.5%  
402 0.3% 98%  
403 0.4% 98%  
404 0.7% 98%  
405 0.6% 97%  
406 1.4% 96%  
407 0.8% 95%  
408 2% 94%  
409 1.0% 92%  
410 1.5% 91%  
411 2% 89%  
412 1.0% 87%  
413 2% 86%  
414 2% 84%  
415 3% 82%  
416 2% 79%  
417 2% 77%  
418 2% 75%  
419 3% 74%  
420 2% 71%  
421 3% 69%  
422 3% 66%  
423 2% 64%  
424 4% 62%  
425 2% 58%  
426 3% 55%  
427 2% 53% Median
428 1.2% 51%  
429 2% 50%  
430 2% 48%  
431 1.2% 46%  
432 2% 45%  
433 2% 43%  
434 0.9% 42%  
435 2% 41%  
436 2% 39%  
437 1.2% 37%  
438 1.1% 36%  
439 3% 34%  
440 2% 32%  
441 1.2% 30%  
442 2% 29%  
443 1.4% 27%  
444 2% 25%  
445 1.0% 23%  
446 3% 22%  
447 1.0% 19%  
448 1.0% 18%  
449 2% 17%  
450 2% 16%  
451 1.4% 13%  
452 2% 12%  
453 1.1% 10%  
454 2% 9%  
455 0.9% 8%  
456 1.0% 7%  
457 0.8% 6%  
458 0.4% 5%  
459 0.6% 5%  
460 0.5% 4%  
461 0.7% 4%  
462 0.5% 3%  
463 0.3% 2%  
464 0.4% 2%  
465 0.2% 2%  
466 0.2% 2%  
467 0.1% 1.3%  
468 0.3% 1.2%  
469 0.1% 0.9%  
470 0.2% 0.8%  
471 0.1% 0.6%  
472 0.1% 0.5%  
473 0.1% 0.4%  
474 0.1% 0.3%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0.1% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.8%  
390 0% 99.8%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.7%  
393 0.1% 99.6%  
394 0.1% 99.5%  
395 0.1% 99.5%  
396 0.1% 99.4%  
397 0.2% 99.3%  
398 0.3% 99.1%  
399 0.3% 98.8%  
400 0.3% 98.5%  
401 0.5% 98%  
402 0.5% 98%  
403 0.5% 97%  
404 0.6% 97%  
405 1.2% 96%  
406 1.3% 95%  
407 2% 94%  
408 1.4% 92%  
409 3% 90%  
410 1.1% 88%  
411 1.4% 86%  
412 2% 85%  
413 2% 83%  
414 3% 82%  
415 3% 79%  
416 1.4% 76%  
417 1.5% 75%  
418 3% 73%  
419 3% 70%  
420 3% 67%  
421 2% 64%  
422 2% 62%  
423 5% 60%  
424 1.0% 55%  
425 3% 54%  
426 2% 52% Median
427 2% 49%  
428 2% 48%  
429 1.3% 46%  
430 0.8% 45%  
431 1.2% 44%  
432 2% 43%  
433 0.8% 41%  
434 4% 40%  
435 0.6% 37%  
436 1.4% 36%  
437 2% 35%  
438 1.3% 32%  
439 2% 31%  
440 0.9% 29%  
441 3% 28%  
442 1.2% 25%  
443 2% 24%  
444 2% 22%  
445 2% 21%  
446 1.1% 19%  
447 2% 18%  
448 2% 16%  
449 1.4% 14%  
450 1.0% 12%  
451 2% 11%  
452 0.9% 9%  
453 2% 9%  
454 1.0% 7%  
455 0.7% 6%  
456 0.5% 5%  
457 0.5% 5%  
458 0.6% 4%  
459 0.8% 4%  
460 0.3% 3%  
461 0.3% 2%  
462 0.3% 2%  
463 0.4% 2%  
464 0.2% 1.5%  
465 0.2% 1.3%  
466 0.1% 1.1%  
467 0.3% 1.0%  
468 0.1% 0.7%  
469 0.1% 0.6%  
470 0.1% 0.5%  
471 0% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.3%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.7%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.1% 99.6%  
117 0.1% 99.5%  
118 0.2% 99.5%  
119 0.2% 99.3%  
120 0.1% 99.1%  
121 0.3% 99.0%  
122 0.3% 98.6%  
123 0.1% 98%  
124 0.4% 98%  
125 0.1% 98%  
126 0.1% 98%  
127 0.2% 98%  
128 0.2% 97%  
129 2% 97%  
130 1.1% 96%  
131 0.6% 95%  
132 1.0% 94%  
133 3% 93%  
134 0.7% 91%  
135 0.2% 90%  
136 0.5% 90%  
137 2% 89%  
138 2% 87%  
139 2% 86%  
140 2% 84%  
141 2% 82%  
142 1.1% 80%  
143 2% 79%  
144 2% 77%  
145 2% 75%  
146 0.9% 73%  
147 2% 72%  
148 2% 69%  
149 2% 68%  
150 0.9% 66%  
151 1.5% 65%  
152 1.1% 63%  
153 0.8% 62%  
154 2% 61%  
155 0.3% 59%  
156 0.8% 59%  
157 0.4% 58%  
158 1.1% 58%  
159 1.3% 57%  
160 2% 55%  
161 3% 53% Median
162 3% 50%  
163 1.3% 47%  
164 1.1% 45%  
165 3% 44%  
166 3% 41%  
167 4% 38%  
168 1.4% 34%  
169 3% 33%  
170 1.0% 30%  
171 2% 29%  
172 2% 27%  
173 4% 25%  
174 1.1% 21%  
175 3% 20%  
176 2% 17%  
177 2% 16%  
178 2% 14%  
179 0.7% 12%  
180 2% 11%  
181 2% 9%  
182 3% 7%  
183 0.5% 5%  
184 0.9% 4%  
185 0.6% 3%  
186 0.4% 3%  
187 0.4% 2%  
188 0.4% 2%  
189 0.2% 1.3%  
190 0.3% 1.1%  
191 0.1% 0.8%  
192 0.1% 0.7%  
193 0.1% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.8%  
97 0% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.1% 99.7%  
100 0.1% 99.6%  
101 0.1% 99.5%  
102 0.2% 99.5%  
103 0.1% 99.3%  
104 0.2% 99.2%  
105 0.1% 99.0%  
106 0.2% 98.9%  
107 0.4% 98.7%  
108 0.2% 98%  
109 0.1% 98%  
110 0.3% 98%  
111 0.4% 98%  
112 0.6% 97%  
113 0.2% 97%  
114 0.3% 97%  
115 1.1% 96%  
116 0.3% 95%  
117 0.6% 95%  
118 0.4% 94%  
119 0.6% 94%  
120 2% 93%  
121 0.9% 91%  
122 0.4% 90%  
123 0.7% 90%  
124 1.1% 89%  
125 1.2% 88%  
126 1.3% 87%  
127 1.3% 86%  
128 2% 84%  
129 0.6% 83%  
130 1.0% 82%  
131 0.7% 81%  
132 2% 81%  
133 3% 79%  
134 1.1% 76%  
135 1.1% 75%  
136 1.3% 74%  
137 1.3% 73%  
138 2% 72%  
139 2% 70%  
140 0.7% 68%  
141 0.8% 67%  
142 1.1% 67%  
143 2% 65%  
144 0.8% 64%  
145 1.4% 63%  
146 2% 61%  
147 1.1% 59%  
148 1.5% 58%  
149 0.3% 57%  
150 2% 56%  
151 0.8% 54%  
152 2% 53%  
153 1.2% 51% Median
154 1.2% 50%  
155 2% 48%  
156 2% 46%  
157 4% 45%  
158 1.0% 41%  
159 1.3% 40%  
160 3% 39%  
161 2% 36%  
162 3% 35%  
163 2% 32%  
164 1.3% 30%  
165 2% 29%  
166 2% 27%  
167 2% 25%  
168 2% 23%  
169 1.1% 21%  
170 2% 20%  
171 3% 18%  
172 1.0% 15%  
173 1.2% 14%  
174 1.0% 13%  
175 1.2% 12%  
176 2% 11%  
177 1.1% 9%  
178 2% 8%  
179 0.6% 6%  
180 0.9% 6%  
181 0.6% 5%  
182 0.6% 4%  
183 0.4% 4%  
184 0.5% 3%  
185 0.2% 3%  
186 0.4% 2%  
187 0.2% 2%  
188 0.5% 2%  
189 0.2% 1.4%  
190 0.2% 1.2%  
191 0.2% 1.0%  
192 0.1% 0.8%  
193 0.1% 0.7%  
194 0.1% 0.6%  
195 0% 0.5%  
196 0% 0.5%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.8%  
95 0% 99.8%  
96 0% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.1% 99.6%  
99 0.1% 99.5%  
100 0.1% 99.4%  
101 0.2% 99.3%  
102 0.1% 99.2%  
103 0.1% 99.0%  
104 0.1% 98.9%  
105 0.2% 98.8%  
106 0.4% 98.6%  
107 0.2% 98%  
108 0.2% 98%  
109 0.4% 98%  
110 0.5% 97%  
111 0.4% 97%  
112 0.5% 97%  
113 0.7% 96%  
114 0.7% 95%  
115 0.2% 95%  
116 0.5% 94%  
117 0.5% 94%  
118 1.0% 93%  
119 2% 92%  
120 0.8% 91%  
121 0.8% 90%  
122 0.7% 89%  
123 2% 88%  
124 1.2% 87%  
125 1.3% 86%  
126 0.4% 84%  
127 1.5% 84%  
128 1.0% 83%  
129 0.5% 82%  
130 2% 81%  
131 1.5% 79%  
132 2% 78%  
133 0.9% 76%  
134 0.9% 75%  
135 1.2% 74%  
136 3% 73%  
137 0.9% 69%  
138 1.0% 68%  
139 0.8% 67%  
140 0.7% 67%  
141 1.2% 66%  
142 2% 65%  
143 0.8% 63%  
144 1.1% 62%  
145 2% 61%  
146 1.1% 59%  
147 2% 58%  
148 2% 56%  
149 0.8% 54%  
150 0.7% 53%  
151 3% 53%  
152 1.0% 49% Median
153 0.7% 48%  
154 3% 48%  
155 2% 45%  
156 3% 43%  
157 1.3% 40%  
158 1.2% 39%  
159 3% 38%  
160 1.4% 35%  
161 3% 34%  
162 2% 31%  
163 2% 29%  
164 2% 27%  
165 2% 26%  
166 1.5% 23%  
167 0.7% 22%  
168 1.4% 21%  
169 3% 20%  
170 3% 17%  
171 0.5% 14%  
172 1.0% 14%  
173 1.2% 13%  
174 1.5% 12%  
175 1.5% 10%  
176 0.9% 9%  
177 1.2% 8%  
178 0.9% 7%  
179 0.8% 6%  
180 0.6% 5%  
181 0.5% 4%  
182 0.7% 4%  
183 0.3% 3%  
184 0.2% 3%  
185 0.4% 2%  
186 0.2% 2%  
187 0.4% 2%  
188 0.2% 1.3%  
189 0.2% 1.2%  
190 0.2% 1.0%  
191 0.1% 0.7%  
192 0.1% 0.7%  
193 0.1% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.5%  
195 0% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.8%  
62 0% 99.8%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0% 99.7%  
65 0.1% 99.7%  
66 0.2% 99.6%  
67 0.1% 99.4%  
68 0.1% 99.3%  
69 0.1% 99.2%  
70 0.1% 99.1%  
71 0.3% 99.0%  
72 0.1% 98.7%  
73 0.4% 98.5%  
74 0.3% 98%  
75 0.2% 98%  
76 0.2% 98%  
77 0.3% 97%  
78 0.5% 97%  
79 0.5% 97%  
80 0.2% 96%  
81 1.4% 96%  
82 0.4% 95%  
83 0.8% 94%  
84 0.7% 93%  
85 1.0% 93%  
86 1.1% 92%  
87 0.8% 91%  
88 2% 90%  
89 0.7% 88%  
90 1.0% 87%  
91 1.1% 86%  
92 2% 85%  
93 0.6% 84%  
94 2% 83%  
95 1.3% 81%  
96 1.0% 80%  
97 2% 79%  
98 0.9% 77%  
99 0.6% 76%  
100 2% 75%  
101 1.1% 73%  
102 1.2% 72%  
103 2% 71%  
104 1.4% 69%  
105 2% 68%  
106 2% 66%  
107 0.8% 64%  
108 0.5% 63%  
109 1.3% 63%  
110 1.1% 62%  
111 1.1% 60%  
112 2% 59%  
113 1.2% 58%  
114 2% 57%  
115 2% 55%  
116 3% 53%  
117 0.8% 51% Median
118 2% 50%  
119 2% 49%  
120 2% 47%  
121 3% 45%  
122 0.8% 42%  
123 2% 41%  
124 3% 40%  
125 2% 37%  
126 3% 35%  
127 0.9% 32%  
128 2% 31%  
129 2% 29%  
130 1.3% 27%  
131 1.2% 26%  
132 3% 24%  
133 3% 22%  
134 1.3% 19%  
135 2% 18%  
136 1.1% 16%  
137 1.1% 15%  
138 1.4% 14%  
139 2% 13%  
140 2% 11%  
141 1.1% 9%  
142 1.2% 8%  
143 1.0% 7%  
144 0.8% 6%  
145 0.9% 5%  
146 0.9% 4%  
147 0.4% 3%  
148 0.6% 3%  
149 0.3% 3%  
150 0.3% 2%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.2% 2%  
153 0.3% 1.3%  
154 0.1% 1.0%  
155 0.1% 0.9%  
156 0.1% 0.8%  
157 0.1% 0.6%  
158 0.1% 0.5%  
159 0.1% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.4%  
161 0% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.1% 99.7%  
64 0.1% 99.6%  
65 0.1% 99.5%  
66 0.1% 99.3%  
67 0.1% 99.2%  
68 0.1% 99.1%  
69 0.2% 99.0%  
70 0.3% 98.8%  
71 0.2% 98.5%  
72 0.2% 98%  
73 0.3% 98%  
74 0.3% 98%  
75 0.3% 97%  
76 0.4% 97%  
77 0.2% 97%  
78 0.6% 97%  
79 1.0% 96%  
80 0.7% 95%  
81 0.4% 94%  
82 1.1% 94%  
83 1.1% 93%  
84 0.5% 92%  
85 1.2% 91%  
86 0.3% 90%  
87 2% 89%  
88 2% 88%  
89 0.8% 86%  
90 0.9% 85%  
91 1.1% 84%  
92 0.6% 83%  
93 2% 83%  
94 1.1% 81%  
95 1.4% 79%  
96 2% 78%  
97 0.7% 76%  
98 2% 75%  
99 0.8% 73%  
100 2% 72%  
101 0.7% 70%  
102 2% 70%  
103 1.4% 68%  
104 1.5% 67%  
105 1.5% 65%  
106 0.8% 64%  
107 0.6% 63%  
108 0.9% 62%  
109 2% 61%  
110 0.5% 59%  
111 2% 59%  
112 2% 57%  
113 0.6% 55%  
114 1.4% 54%  
115 3% 53%  
116 1.5% 50% Median
117 1.4% 49%  
118 2% 47%  
119 2% 46%  
120 2% 44%  
121 1.4% 42%  
122 1.3% 40%  
123 2% 39%  
124 3% 37%  
125 3% 34%  
126 1.1% 31%  
127 2% 30%  
128 2% 28%  
129 1.0% 26%  
130 2% 25%  
131 2% 23%  
132 2% 21%  
133 1.4% 19%  
134 2% 17%  
135 1.2% 16%  
136 1.4% 14%  
137 1.1% 13%  
138 1.4% 12%  
139 1.3% 10%  
140 1.2% 9%  
141 1.5% 8%  
142 1.0% 6%  
143 0.8% 5%  
144 0.7% 5%  
145 0.5% 4%  
146 0.6% 3%  
147 0.5% 3%  
148 0.3% 2%  
149 0.3% 2%  
150 0.3% 2%  
151 0.2% 1.4%  
152 0.2% 1.1%  
153 0.1% 0.9%  
154 0.2% 0.8%  
155 0.1% 0.7%  
156 0.1% 0.6%  
157 0.1% 0.5%  
158 0.1% 0.4%  
159 0.1% 0.3%  
160 0% 0.3%  
161 0% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations