Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI for Evening Standard, 21–28 February 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Labour Party |
32.1% |
50.1% |
48.0–52.2% |
47.4–52.8% |
46.9–53.3% |
45.9–54.3% |
Conservative Party |
43.6% |
21.3% |
19.7–23.1% |
19.2–23.6% |
18.8–24.1% |
18.1–25.0% |
Liberal Democrats |
11.5% |
9.6% |
8.4–10.9% |
8.1–11.3% |
7.8–11.6% |
7.3–12.3% |
Green Party |
2.8% |
6.7% |
5.7–7.8% |
5.5–8.2% |
5.3–8.5% |
4.8–9.1% |
Scottish National Party |
3.9% |
4.2% |
3.5–5.2% |
3.3–5.5% |
3.1–5.7% |
2.8–6.2% |
Brexit Party |
2.0% |
3.7% |
3.0–4.6% |
2.8–4.9% |
2.7–5.1% |
2.4–5.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
202 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
203 |
0% |
100% |
|
204 |
0% |
100% |
|
205 |
0% |
100% |
|
206 |
0% |
100% |
|
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
100% |
|
385 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
386 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
387 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
388 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
389 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
390 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
391 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
392 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
393 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
394 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
395 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
396 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
397 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
398 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
399 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
400 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
401 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
402 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
403 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
404 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
405 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
406 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
407 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
408 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
409 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
410 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
411 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
412 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
413 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
414 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
415 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
416 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
417 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
418 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
419 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
420 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
421 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
422 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
423 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
424 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
425 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
426 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
427 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
428 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
429 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
430 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
431 |
0.6% |
89% |
|
432 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
433 |
0.9% |
88% |
|
434 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
435 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
436 |
1.0% |
85% |
|
437 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
438 |
1.1% |
83% |
|
439 |
1.1% |
82% |
|
440 |
1.5% |
80% |
|
441 |
1.2% |
79% |
|
442 |
2% |
78% |
|
443 |
1.5% |
76% |
|
444 |
1.4% |
75% |
|
445 |
1.2% |
73% |
|
446 |
1.2% |
72% |
|
447 |
1.4% |
71% |
|
448 |
1.4% |
69% |
|
449 |
1.4% |
68% |
|
450 |
1.1% |
67% |
|
451 |
2% |
65% |
|
452 |
2% |
64% |
|
453 |
2% |
62% |
|
454 |
2% |
60% |
|
455 |
2% |
58% |
|
456 |
2% |
57% |
|
457 |
1.3% |
55% |
|
458 |
2% |
54% |
|
459 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
460 |
2% |
50% |
|
461 |
2% |
48% |
|
462 |
2% |
46% |
|
463 |
2% |
44% |
|
464 |
2% |
41% |
|
465 |
2% |
40% |
|
466 |
2% |
37% |
|
467 |
2% |
35% |
|
468 |
3% |
33% |
|
469 |
2% |
31% |
|
470 |
2% |
29% |
|
471 |
2% |
27% |
|
472 |
2% |
24% |
|
473 |
2% |
22% |
|
474 |
2% |
20% |
|
475 |
2% |
19% |
|
476 |
2% |
17% |
|
477 |
1.4% |
15% |
|
478 |
1.3% |
14% |
|
479 |
2% |
13% |
|
480 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
481 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
482 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
483 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
484 |
0.9% |
7% |
|
485 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
486 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
487 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
488 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
489 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
490 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
491 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
492 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
493 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
494 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
495 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
496 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
497 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
498 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
499 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
500 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
501 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
502 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
503 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
504 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
505 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
506 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
507 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
508 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
509 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
510 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
511 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
512 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
513 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
514 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
44 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
47 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
50 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
51 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
52 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
53 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
54 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
55 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
56 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
57 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
58 |
1.2% |
90% |
|
59 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
60 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
61 |
2% |
87% |
|
62 |
1.5% |
85% |
|
63 |
2% |
84% |
|
64 |
2% |
82% |
|
65 |
1.4% |
80% |
|
66 |
2% |
79% |
|
67 |
2% |
77% |
|
68 |
2% |
75% |
|
69 |
2% |
73% |
|
70 |
1.3% |
71% |
|
71 |
3% |
70% |
|
72 |
4% |
67% |
|
73 |
2% |
63% |
|
74 |
2% |
62% |
|
75 |
0.8% |
59% |
|
76 |
2% |
59% |
|
77 |
2% |
57% |
|
78 |
2% |
55% |
|
79 |
1.3% |
52% |
|
80 |
2% |
51% |
Median |
81 |
1.4% |
49% |
|
82 |
1.1% |
47% |
|
83 |
2% |
46% |
|
84 |
2% |
45% |
|
85 |
2% |
42% |
|
86 |
0.6% |
41% |
|
87 |
1.3% |
40% |
|
88 |
1.1% |
39% |
|
89 |
1.4% |
38% |
|
90 |
2% |
36% |
|
91 |
1.2% |
35% |
|
92 |
1.3% |
33% |
|
93 |
2% |
32% |
|
94 |
2% |
30% |
|
95 |
2% |
29% |
|
96 |
1.0% |
27% |
|
97 |
2% |
26% |
|
98 |
1.2% |
25% |
|
99 |
0.9% |
23% |
|
100 |
1.0% |
23% |
|
101 |
1.3% |
21% |
|
102 |
1.2% |
20% |
|
103 |
0.9% |
19% |
|
104 |
1.5% |
18% |
|
105 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
106 |
0.5% |
15% |
|
107 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
108 |
0.5% |
14% |
|
109 |
0.7% |
14% |
|
110 |
1.2% |
13% |
|
111 |
0.6% |
12% |
|
112 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
113 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
114 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
115 |
0.4% |
9% |
|
116 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
119 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
120 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
121 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
122 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
123 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
124 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
125 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
126 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
127 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
128 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
129 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
130 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
131 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
132 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
133 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
134 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
135 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
136 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
137 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
138 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
139 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
140 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
141 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
142 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
144 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
145 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
155 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
157 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
161 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
162 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
163 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
164 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
|
183 |
0% |
0% |
|
184 |
0% |
0% |
|
185 |
0% |
0% |
|
186 |
0% |
0% |
|
187 |
0% |
0% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
189 |
0% |
0% |
|
190 |
0% |
0% |
|
191 |
0% |
0% |
|
192 |
0% |
0% |
|
193 |
0% |
0% |
|
194 |
0% |
0% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
196 |
0% |
0% |
|
197 |
0% |
0% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
200 |
0% |
0% |
|
201 |
0% |
0% |
|
202 |
0% |
0% |
|
203 |
0% |
0% |
|
204 |
0% |
0% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
207 |
0% |
0% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
209 |
0% |
0% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
18 |
1.4% |
99.1% |
|
19 |
2% |
98% |
|
20 |
3% |
96% |
|
21 |
3% |
93% |
|
22 |
3% |
90% |
|
23 |
2% |
86% |
|
24 |
2% |
85% |
|
25 |
5% |
83% |
|
26 |
3% |
79% |
|
27 |
3% |
75% |
|
28 |
3% |
72% |
|
29 |
4% |
69% |
|
30 |
4% |
65% |
|
31 |
4% |
61% |
|
32 |
5% |
57% |
|
33 |
5% |
52% |
Median |
34 |
6% |
47% |
|
35 |
6% |
41% |
|
36 |
5% |
35% |
|
37 |
3% |
30% |
|
38 |
2% |
28% |
|
39 |
3% |
25% |
|
40 |
3% |
23% |
|
41 |
3% |
20% |
|
42 |
2% |
17% |
|
43 |
2% |
15% |
|
44 |
2% |
13% |
|
45 |
2% |
11% |
|
46 |
2% |
9% |
|
47 |
2% |
7% |
|
48 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
49 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
50 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
51 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
54 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
8% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
40% |
92% |
|
3 |
50% |
52% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
32 |
0.6% |
98.6% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
34 |
2% |
98% |
|
35 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
36 |
2% |
96% |
|
37 |
2% |
94% |
|
38 |
2% |
93% |
|
39 |
1.5% |
91% |
|
40 |
2% |
89% |
|
41 |
4% |
87% |
|
42 |
2% |
84% |
|
43 |
4% |
81% |
|
44 |
6% |
78% |
|
45 |
5% |
72% |
|
46 |
6% |
67% |
|
47 |
3% |
61% |
|
48 |
4% |
58% |
Last Result |
49 |
2% |
54% |
|
50 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
51 |
3% |
49% |
|
52 |
4% |
46% |
|
53 |
8% |
42% |
|
54 |
8% |
35% |
|
55 |
8% |
27% |
|
56 |
5% |
19% |
|
57 |
10% |
14% |
|
58 |
5% |
5% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
66% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
4% |
34% |
|
2 |
17% |
30% |
|
3 |
13% |
13% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
261 |
542 |
100% |
508–564 |
495–571 |
486–578 |
472–589 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
250 |
509 |
100% |
481–526 |
467–532 |
460–538 |
448–546 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
213 |
493 |
100% |
457–519 |
444–526 |
434–533 |
419–546 |
Labour Party |
202 |
459 |
100% |
429–481 |
417–487 |
408–492 |
395–503 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
413 |
129 |
0% |
103–165 |
96–178 |
89–189 |
76–205 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
376 |
112 |
0% |
96–141 |
90–155 |
84–163 |
76–175 |
Conservative Party |
365 |
80 |
0% |
58–113 |
51–127 |
44–137 |
34–151 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
261 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
100% |
|
385 |
0% |
100% |
|
386 |
0% |
100% |
|
387 |
0% |
100% |
|
388 |
0% |
100% |
|
389 |
0% |
100% |
|
390 |
0% |
100% |
|
391 |
0% |
100% |
|
392 |
0% |
100% |
|
393 |
0% |
100% |
|
394 |
0% |
100% |
|
395 |
0% |
100% |
|
396 |
0% |
100% |
|
397 |
0% |
100% |
|
398 |
0% |
100% |
|
399 |
0% |
100% |
|
400 |
0% |
100% |
|
401 |
0% |
100% |
|
402 |
0% |
100% |
|
403 |
0% |
100% |
|
404 |
0% |
100% |
|
405 |
0% |
100% |
|
406 |
0% |
100% |
|
407 |
0% |
100% |
|
408 |
0% |
100% |
|
409 |
0% |
100% |
|
410 |
0% |
100% |
|
411 |
0% |
100% |
|
412 |
0% |
100% |
|
413 |
0% |
100% |
|
414 |
0% |
100% |
|
415 |
0% |
100% |
|
416 |
0% |
100% |
|
417 |
0% |
100% |
|
418 |
0% |
100% |
|
419 |
0% |
100% |
|
420 |
0% |
100% |
|
421 |
0% |
100% |
|
422 |
0% |
100% |
|
423 |
0% |
100% |
|
424 |
0% |
100% |
|
425 |
0% |
100% |
|
426 |
0% |
100% |
|
427 |
0% |
100% |
|
428 |
0% |
100% |
|
429 |
0% |
100% |
|
430 |
0% |
100% |
|
431 |
0% |
100% |
|
432 |
0% |
100% |
|
433 |
0% |
100% |
|
434 |
0% |
100% |
|
435 |
0% |
100% |
|
436 |
0% |
100% |
|
437 |
0% |
100% |
|
438 |
0% |
100% |
|
439 |
0% |
100% |
|
440 |
0% |
100% |
|
441 |
0% |
100% |
|
442 |
0% |
100% |
|
443 |
0% |
100% |
|
444 |
0% |
100% |
|
445 |
0% |
100% |
|
446 |
0% |
100% |
|
447 |
0% |
100% |
|
448 |
0% |
100% |
|
449 |
0% |
100% |
|
450 |
0% |
100% |
|
451 |
0% |
100% |
|
452 |
0% |
100% |
|
453 |
0% |
100% |
|
454 |
0% |
100% |
|
455 |
0% |
100% |
|
456 |
0% |
100% |
|
457 |
0% |
100% |
|
458 |
0% |
100% |
|
459 |
0% |
100% |
|
460 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
461 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
462 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
463 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
464 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
465 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
466 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
467 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
468 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
469 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
470 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
471 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
472 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
473 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
474 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
475 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
476 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
477 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
478 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
479 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
480 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
481 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
|
482 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
483 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
484 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
485 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
486 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
487 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
488 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
489 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
490 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
491 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
492 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
493 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
494 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
495 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
496 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
497 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
498 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
499 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
500 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
501 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
502 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
503 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
504 |
0.4% |
92% |
|
505 |
0.4% |
92% |
|
506 |
0.3% |
91% |
|
507 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
508 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
509 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
510 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
511 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
512 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
513 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
514 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
515 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
516 |
0.9% |
85% |
|
517 |
1.0% |
84% |
|
518 |
1.1% |
83% |
|
519 |
1.2% |
82% |
|
520 |
1.1% |
80% |
|
521 |
1.0% |
79% |
|
522 |
1.2% |
78% |
|
523 |
1.0% |
77% |
|
524 |
1.3% |
76% |
|
525 |
1.3% |
75% |
|
526 |
1.2% |
73% |
|
527 |
2% |
72% |
|
528 |
1.4% |
71% |
|
529 |
1.5% |
69% |
|
530 |
1.5% |
68% |
|
531 |
2% |
66% |
|
532 |
1.2% |
65% |
|
533 |
1.2% |
64% |
|
534 |
2% |
62% |
|
535 |
1.2% |
61% |
|
536 |
1.1% |
60% |
|
537 |
1.1% |
59% |
|
538 |
2% |
57% |
|
539 |
2% |
55% |
|
540 |
1.5% |
53% |
|
541 |
1.3% |
52% |
|
542 |
1.5% |
51% |
Median |
543 |
2% |
49% |
|
544 |
2% |
47% |
|
545 |
2% |
45% |
|
546 |
2% |
43% |
|
547 |
1.4% |
41% |
|
548 |
2% |
40% |
|
549 |
2% |
38% |
|
550 |
3% |
36% |
|
551 |
3% |
33% |
|
552 |
2% |
30% |
|
553 |
2% |
28% |
|
554 |
2% |
27% |
|
555 |
2% |
25% |
|
556 |
2% |
23% |
|
557 |
2% |
21% |
|
558 |
2% |
19% |
|
559 |
2% |
17% |
|
560 |
1.3% |
16% |
|
561 |
1.4% |
14% |
|
562 |
1.0% |
13% |
|
563 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
564 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
565 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
566 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
567 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
568 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
569 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
570 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
571 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
572 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
573 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
574 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
575 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
576 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
577 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
578 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
579 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
580 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
581 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
582 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
583 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
584 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
585 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
586 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
587 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
588 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
589 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
590 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
591 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
592 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
593 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
594 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
595 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
596 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
597 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
598 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
599 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
250 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
100% |
|
385 |
0% |
100% |
|
386 |
0% |
100% |
|
387 |
0% |
100% |
|
388 |
0% |
100% |
|
389 |
0% |
100% |
|
390 |
0% |
100% |
|
391 |
0% |
100% |
|
392 |
0% |
100% |
|
393 |
0% |
100% |
|
394 |
0% |
100% |
|
395 |
0% |
100% |
|
396 |
0% |
100% |
|
397 |
0% |
100% |
|
398 |
0% |
100% |
|
399 |
0% |
100% |
|
400 |
0% |
100% |
|
401 |
0% |
100% |
|
402 |
0% |
100% |
|
403 |
0% |
100% |
|
404 |
0% |
100% |
|
405 |
0% |
100% |
|
406 |
0% |
100% |
|
407 |
0% |
100% |
|
408 |
0% |
100% |
|
409 |
0% |
100% |
|
410 |
0% |
100% |
|
411 |
0% |
100% |
|
412 |
0% |
100% |
|
413 |
0% |
100% |
|
414 |
0% |
100% |
|
415 |
0% |
100% |
|
416 |
0% |
100% |
|
417 |
0% |
100% |
|
418 |
0% |
100% |
|
419 |
0% |
100% |
|
420 |
0% |
100% |
|
421 |
0% |
100% |
|
422 |
0% |
100% |
|
423 |
0% |
100% |
|
424 |
0% |
100% |
|
425 |
0% |
100% |
|
426 |
0% |
100% |
|
427 |
0% |
100% |
|
428 |
0% |
100% |
|
429 |
0% |
100% |
|
430 |
0% |
100% |
|
431 |
0% |
100% |
|
432 |
0% |
100% |
|
433 |
0% |
100% |
|
434 |
0% |
100% |
|
435 |
0% |
100% |
|
436 |
0% |
100% |
|
437 |
0% |
100% |
|
438 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
439 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
440 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
441 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
442 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
443 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
444 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
445 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
446 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
447 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
448 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
449 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
450 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
451 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
452 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
453 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
454 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
455 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
456 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
457 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
458 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
459 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
460 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
461 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
462 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
463 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
464 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
465 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
466 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
467 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
468 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
469 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
470 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
471 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
472 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
473 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
474 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
475 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
476 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
477 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
478 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
479 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
480 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
481 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
482 |
0.6% |
89% |
|
483 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
484 |
0.9% |
88% |
|
485 |
0.9% |
87% |
|
486 |
1.1% |
86% |
|
487 |
1.2% |
85% |
|
488 |
2% |
84% |
|
489 |
1.5% |
82% |
|
490 |
2% |
81% |
|
491 |
1.1% |
79% |
|
492 |
1.0% |
78% |
|
493 |
2% |
77% |
|
494 |
0.9% |
75% |
|
495 |
2% |
74% |
|
496 |
2% |
72% |
|
497 |
2% |
70% |
|
498 |
2% |
68% |
|
499 |
2% |
66% |
|
500 |
1.4% |
64% |
|
501 |
1.3% |
63% |
|
502 |
1.1% |
61% |
|
503 |
2% |
60% |
|
504 |
0.9% |
59% |
|
505 |
1.2% |
58% |
|
506 |
2% |
56% |
|
507 |
2% |
55% |
|
508 |
2% |
53% |
|
509 |
2% |
51% |
Median |
510 |
2% |
49% |
|
511 |
2% |
48% |
|
512 |
2% |
45% |
|
513 |
3% |
43% |
|
514 |
3% |
41% |
|
515 |
2% |
38% |
|
516 |
3% |
35% |
|
517 |
4% |
33% |
|
518 |
4% |
29% |
|
519 |
3% |
26% |
|
520 |
2% |
23% |
|
521 |
2% |
21% |
|
522 |
2% |
18% |
|
523 |
2% |
16% |
|
524 |
2% |
15% |
|
525 |
2% |
13% |
|
526 |
2% |
11% |
|
527 |
1.2% |
10% |
|
528 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
529 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
530 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
531 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
532 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
533 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
534 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
535 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
536 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
537 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
538 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
539 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
540 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
541 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
542 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
543 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
544 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
545 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
546 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
547 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
548 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
549 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
550 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
551 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
552 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
553 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
554 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
213 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
100% |
|
385 |
0% |
100% |
|
386 |
0% |
100% |
|
387 |
0% |
100% |
|
388 |
0% |
100% |
|
389 |
0% |
100% |
|
390 |
0% |
100% |
|
391 |
0% |
100% |
|
392 |
0% |
100% |
|
393 |
0% |
100% |
|
394 |
0% |
100% |
|
395 |
0% |
100% |
|
396 |
0% |
100% |
|
397 |
0% |
100% |
|
398 |
0% |
100% |
|
399 |
0% |
100% |
|
400 |
0% |
100% |
|
401 |
0% |
100% |
|
402 |
0% |
100% |
|
403 |
0% |
100% |
|
404 |
0% |
100% |
|
405 |
0% |
100% |
|
406 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
407 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
408 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
409 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
410 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
411 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
412 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
413 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
414 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
415 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
416 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
417 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
418 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
419 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
420 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
421 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
422 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
423 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
424 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
425 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
426 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
427 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
428 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
429 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
|
430 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
431 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
432 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
433 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
434 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
435 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
436 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
437 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
438 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
439 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
440 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
441 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
442 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
443 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
444 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
445 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
446 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
447 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
448 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
449 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
450 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
451 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
452 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
453 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
454 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
455 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
456 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
457 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
458 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
459 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
460 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
461 |
0.6% |
88% |
|
462 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
463 |
0.8% |
86% |
|
464 |
0.9% |
85% |
|
465 |
0.7% |
85% |
|
466 |
1.0% |
84% |
|
467 |
0.9% |
83% |
|
468 |
0.7% |
82% |
|
469 |
0.9% |
81% |
|
470 |
1.0% |
80% |
|
471 |
1.1% |
79% |
|
472 |
1.2% |
78% |
|
473 |
1.3% |
77% |
|
474 |
2% |
76% |
|
475 |
1.0% |
74% |
|
476 |
1.2% |
73% |
|
477 |
1.0% |
72% |
|
478 |
1.1% |
71% |
|
479 |
1.1% |
70% |
|
480 |
1.2% |
69% |
|
481 |
1.4% |
67% |
|
482 |
2% |
66% |
|
483 |
1.4% |
64% |
|
484 |
1.2% |
63% |
|
485 |
2% |
62% |
|
486 |
1.3% |
60% |
|
487 |
1.4% |
59% |
|
488 |
1.4% |
58% |
|
489 |
2% |
56% |
|
490 |
1.1% |
54% |
|
491 |
2% |
53% |
|
492 |
1.4% |
52% |
Median |
493 |
2% |
50% |
|
494 |
2% |
48% |
|
495 |
2% |
47% |
|
496 |
2% |
45% |
|
497 |
2% |
43% |
|
498 |
2% |
41% |
|
499 |
2% |
39% |
|
500 |
2% |
38% |
|
501 |
2% |
36% |
|
502 |
2% |
34% |
|
503 |
2% |
32% |
|
504 |
1.3% |
31% |
|
505 |
2% |
29% |
|
506 |
2% |
27% |
|
507 |
1.1% |
25% |
|
508 |
2% |
24% |
|
509 |
2% |
22% |
|
510 |
1.5% |
21% |
|
511 |
2% |
19% |
|
512 |
1.3% |
18% |
|
513 |
1.2% |
16% |
|
514 |
1.0% |
15% |
|
515 |
1.2% |
14% |
|
516 |
1.2% |
13% |
|
517 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
518 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
519 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
520 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
521 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
522 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
523 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
524 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
525 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
526 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
527 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
528 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
529 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
530 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
531 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
532 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
533 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
534 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
535 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
536 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
537 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
538 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
539 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
540 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
541 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
542 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
543 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
544 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
545 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
546 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
547 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
548 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
549 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
550 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
551 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
552 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
553 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
554 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
555 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
556 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
557 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
558 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
559 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
560 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
202 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
203 |
0% |
100% |
|
204 |
0% |
100% |
|
205 |
0% |
100% |
|
206 |
0% |
100% |
|
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
100% |
|
385 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
386 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
387 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
388 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
389 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
390 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
391 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
392 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
393 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
394 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
395 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
396 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
397 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
398 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
399 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
400 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
401 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
402 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
403 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
404 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
405 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
406 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
407 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
408 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
409 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
410 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
411 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
412 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
413 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
414 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
415 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
416 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
417 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
418 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
419 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
420 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
421 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
422 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
423 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
424 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
425 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
426 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
427 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
428 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
429 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
430 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
431 |
0.6% |
89% |
|
432 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
433 |
0.9% |
88% |
|
434 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
435 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
436 |
1.0% |
85% |
|
437 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
438 |
1.1% |
83% |
|
439 |
1.1% |
82% |
|
440 |
1.5% |
80% |
|
441 |
1.2% |
79% |
|
442 |
2% |
78% |
|
443 |
1.5% |
76% |
|
444 |
1.4% |
75% |
|
445 |
1.2% |
73% |
|
446 |
1.2% |
72% |
|
447 |
1.4% |
71% |
|
448 |
1.4% |
69% |
|
449 |
1.4% |
68% |
|
450 |
1.1% |
67% |
|
451 |
2% |
65% |
|
452 |
2% |
64% |
|
453 |
2% |
62% |
|
454 |
2% |
60% |
|
455 |
2% |
58% |
|
456 |
2% |
57% |
|
457 |
1.3% |
55% |
|
458 |
2% |
54% |
|
459 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
460 |
2% |
50% |
|
461 |
2% |
48% |
|
462 |
2% |
46% |
|
463 |
2% |
44% |
|
464 |
2% |
41% |
|
465 |
2% |
40% |
|
466 |
2% |
37% |
|
467 |
2% |
35% |
|
468 |
3% |
33% |
|
469 |
2% |
31% |
|
470 |
2% |
29% |
|
471 |
2% |
27% |
|
472 |
2% |
24% |
|
473 |
2% |
22% |
|
474 |
2% |
20% |
|
475 |
2% |
19% |
|
476 |
2% |
17% |
|
477 |
1.4% |
15% |
|
478 |
1.3% |
14% |
|
479 |
2% |
13% |
|
480 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
481 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
482 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
483 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
484 |
0.9% |
7% |
|
485 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
486 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
487 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
488 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
489 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
490 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
491 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
492 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
493 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
494 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
495 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
496 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
497 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
498 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
499 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
500 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
501 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
502 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
503 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
504 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
505 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
506 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
507 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
508 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
509 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
510 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
511 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
512 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
513 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
514 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
65 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
66 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
67 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
68 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
69 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
71 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
72 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
83 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
84 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
86 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
87 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
88 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
89 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
90 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
91 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
92 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
93 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
94 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
95 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
96 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
97 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
98 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
99 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
100 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
101 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
102 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
103 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
104 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
105 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
106 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
107 |
2% |
87% |
|
108 |
1.1% |
86% |
|
109 |
1.3% |
85% |
|
110 |
1.1% |
83% |
|
111 |
1.5% |
82% |
|
112 |
2% |
81% |
|
113 |
2% |
79% |
|
114 |
1.4% |
77% |
|
115 |
1.5% |
76% |
|
116 |
2% |
74% |
|
117 |
2% |
73% |
|
118 |
2% |
71% |
|
119 |
2% |
69% |
|
120 |
2% |
68% |
|
121 |
2% |
66% |
|
122 |
2% |
64% |
|
123 |
1.1% |
62% |
|
124 |
2% |
61% |
|
125 |
2% |
59% |
|
126 |
2% |
57% |
|
127 |
2% |
55% |
|
128 |
2% |
53% |
|
129 |
2% |
51% |
|
130 |
1.3% |
49% |
Median |
131 |
1.4% |
48% |
|
132 |
2% |
47% |
|
133 |
1.2% |
45% |
|
134 |
2% |
44% |
|
135 |
2% |
42% |
|
136 |
1.3% |
41% |
|
137 |
2% |
39% |
|
138 |
1.3% |
38% |
|
139 |
1.3% |
36% |
|
140 |
2% |
35% |
|
141 |
1.4% |
34% |
|
142 |
1.1% |
32% |
|
143 |
1.0% |
31% |
|
144 |
1.1% |
30% |
|
145 |
1.5% |
29% |
|
146 |
0.9% |
27% |
|
147 |
1.3% |
27% |
|
148 |
1.2% |
25% |
|
149 |
1.4% |
24% |
|
150 |
1.2% |
23% |
|
151 |
1.2% |
21% |
|
152 |
0.9% |
20% |
|
153 |
1.0% |
19% |
|
154 |
0.6% |
18% |
|
155 |
0.8% |
18% |
|
156 |
0.8% |
17% |
|
157 |
0.8% |
16% |
|
158 |
1.2% |
15% |
|
159 |
0.8% |
14% |
|
160 |
0.8% |
14% |
|
161 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
162 |
0.4% |
12% |
|
163 |
0.6% |
12% |
|
164 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
165 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
166 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
167 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
168 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
169 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
170 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
171 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
172 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
173 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
174 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
175 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
176 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
177 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
178 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
179 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
180 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
181 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
182 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
183 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
184 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
185 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
186 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
187 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
188 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
189 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
190 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
191 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
192 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
193 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
194 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
195 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
199 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
200 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
204 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
207 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
208 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
209 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
210 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
211 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
212 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
213 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
214 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
215 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
216 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
217 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
218 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
|
377 |
0% |
0% |
|
378 |
0% |
0% |
|
379 |
0% |
0% |
|
380 |
0% |
0% |
|
381 |
0% |
0% |
|
382 |
0% |
0% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
384 |
0% |
0% |
|
385 |
0% |
0% |
|
386 |
0% |
0% |
|
387 |
0% |
0% |
|
388 |
0% |
0% |
|
389 |
0% |
0% |
|
390 |
0% |
0% |
|
391 |
0% |
0% |
|
392 |
0% |
0% |
|
393 |
0% |
0% |
|
394 |
0% |
0% |
|
395 |
0% |
0% |
|
396 |
0% |
0% |
|
397 |
0% |
0% |
|
398 |
0% |
0% |
|
399 |
0% |
0% |
|
400 |
0% |
0% |
|
401 |
0% |
0% |
|
402 |
0% |
0% |
|
403 |
0% |
0% |
|
404 |
0% |
0% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
406 |
0% |
0% |
|
407 |
0% |
0% |
|
408 |
0% |
0% |
|
409 |
0% |
0% |
|
410 |
0% |
0% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
413 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
78 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
81 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
82 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
83 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
84 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
85 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
86 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
87 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
88 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
89 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
90 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
91 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
92 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
93 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
94 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
95 |
1.3% |
92% |
|
96 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
97 |
2% |
89% |
|
98 |
2% |
87% |
|
99 |
2% |
85% |
|
100 |
1.4% |
83% |
|
101 |
2% |
82% |
|
102 |
3% |
80% |
|
103 |
3% |
77% |
|
104 |
3% |
74% |
|
105 |
4% |
71% |
|
106 |
3% |
67% |
|
107 |
2% |
63% |
|
108 |
3% |
61% |
|
109 |
2% |
59% |
|
110 |
3% |
56% |
|
111 |
2% |
54% |
|
112 |
2% |
52% |
|
113 |
1.1% |
50% |
Median |
114 |
2% |
49% |
|
115 |
2% |
46% |
|
116 |
1.4% |
45% |
|
117 |
1.4% |
43% |
|
118 |
0.9% |
42% |
|
119 |
1.0% |
41% |
|
120 |
1.4% |
40% |
|
121 |
1.1% |
39% |
|
122 |
1.5% |
37% |
|
123 |
2% |
36% |
|
124 |
3% |
34% |
|
125 |
2% |
31% |
|
126 |
2% |
29% |
|
127 |
3% |
27% |
|
128 |
0.9% |
25% |
|
129 |
1.3% |
24% |
|
130 |
0.5% |
23% |
|
131 |
1.1% |
22% |
|
132 |
2% |
21% |
|
133 |
1.5% |
19% |
|
134 |
2% |
17% |
|
135 |
1.2% |
16% |
|
136 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
137 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
138 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
139 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
140 |
0.8% |
11% |
|
141 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
142 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
143 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
144 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
145 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
146 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
147 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
148 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
150 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
151 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
152 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
153 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
154 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
155 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
156 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
157 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
158 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
159 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
160 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
161 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
162 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
163 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
164 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
165 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
166 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
167 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
168 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
169 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
170 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
171 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
172 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
173 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
174 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
175 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
176 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
177 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
178 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
179 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
180 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
181 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
182 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
183 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
184 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
185 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
186 |
0% |
0% |
|
187 |
0% |
0% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
189 |
0% |
0% |
|
190 |
0% |
0% |
|
191 |
0% |
0% |
|
192 |
0% |
0% |
|
193 |
0% |
0% |
|
194 |
0% |
0% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
196 |
0% |
0% |
|
197 |
0% |
0% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
200 |
0% |
0% |
|
201 |
0% |
0% |
|
202 |
0% |
0% |
|
203 |
0% |
0% |
|
204 |
0% |
0% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
207 |
0% |
0% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
209 |
0% |
0% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
44 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
47 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
50 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
51 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
52 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
53 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
54 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
55 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
56 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
57 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
58 |
1.2% |
90% |
|
59 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
60 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
61 |
2% |
87% |
|
62 |
1.5% |
85% |
|
63 |
2% |
84% |
|
64 |
2% |
82% |
|
65 |
1.4% |
80% |
|
66 |
2% |
79% |
|
67 |
2% |
77% |
|
68 |
2% |
75% |
|
69 |
2% |
73% |
|
70 |
1.3% |
71% |
|
71 |
3% |
70% |
|
72 |
4% |
67% |
|
73 |
2% |
63% |
|
74 |
2% |
62% |
|
75 |
0.8% |
59% |
|
76 |
2% |
59% |
|
77 |
2% |
57% |
|
78 |
2% |
55% |
|
79 |
1.3% |
52% |
|
80 |
2% |
51% |
Median |
81 |
1.4% |
49% |
|
82 |
1.1% |
47% |
|
83 |
2% |
46% |
|
84 |
2% |
45% |
|
85 |
2% |
42% |
|
86 |
0.6% |
41% |
|
87 |
1.3% |
40% |
|
88 |
1.1% |
39% |
|
89 |
1.4% |
38% |
|
90 |
2% |
36% |
|
91 |
1.2% |
35% |
|
92 |
1.3% |
33% |
|
93 |
2% |
32% |
|
94 |
2% |
30% |
|
95 |
2% |
29% |
|
96 |
1.0% |
27% |
|
97 |
2% |
26% |
|
98 |
1.2% |
25% |
|
99 |
0.9% |
23% |
|
100 |
1.0% |
23% |
|
101 |
1.3% |
21% |
|
102 |
1.2% |
20% |
|
103 |
0.9% |
19% |
|
104 |
1.5% |
18% |
|
105 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
106 |
0.5% |
15% |
|
107 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
108 |
0.5% |
14% |
|
109 |
0.7% |
14% |
|
110 |
1.2% |
13% |
|
111 |
0.6% |
12% |
|
112 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
113 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
114 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
115 |
0.4% |
9% |
|
116 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
119 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
120 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
121 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
122 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
123 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
124 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
125 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
126 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
127 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
128 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
129 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
130 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
131 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
132 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
133 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
134 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
135 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
136 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
137 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
138 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
139 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
140 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
141 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
142 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
144 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
145 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
155 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
157 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
161 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
162 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
163 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
164 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
|
183 |
0% |
0% |
|
184 |
0% |
0% |
|
185 |
0% |
0% |
|
186 |
0% |
0% |
|
187 |
0% |
0% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
189 |
0% |
0% |
|
190 |
0% |
0% |
|
191 |
0% |
0% |
|
192 |
0% |
0% |
|
193 |
0% |
0% |
|
194 |
0% |
0% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
196 |
0% |
0% |
|
197 |
0% |
0% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
200 |
0% |
0% |
|
201 |
0% |
0% |
|
202 |
0% |
0% |
|
203 |
0% |
0% |
|
204 |
0% |
0% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
207 |
0% |
0% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
209 |
0% |
0% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos MORI
- Commissioner(s): Evening Standard
- Fieldwork period: 21–28 February 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 942
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.98%