Opinion Poll by Savanta for The Sun, 25–27 March 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 48.1% 46.9–49.2% 46.6–49.6% 46.3–49.9% 45.7–50.4%
Conservative Party 43.6% 25.7% 24.7–26.7% 24.4–27.0% 24.1–27.2% 23.7–27.7%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.7% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Brexit Party 2.0% 5.6% 5.1–6.2% 4.9–6.3% 4.8–6.5% 4.6–6.8%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 3.2% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.8% 2.6–3.9% 2.5–4.1%
Green Party 2.8% 2.5% 2.2–2.9% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 406 393–419 388–424 384–429 377–441
Conservative Party 365 148 134–163 128–168 124–173 110–180
Liberal Democrats 11 33 26–39 25–40 24–41 22–43
Brexit Party 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Scottish National Party 48 36 29–42 26–44 23–45 21–50
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.7%  
376 0.1% 99.6%  
377 0.2% 99.5%  
378 0.2% 99.4%  
379 0.3% 99.2%  
380 0.2% 98.9%  
381 0.3% 98.7%  
382 0.4% 98%  
383 0.4% 98%  
384 0.5% 98%  
385 0.6% 97%  
386 0.4% 96%  
387 0.8% 96%  
388 0.7% 95%  
389 0.9% 95%  
390 0.8% 94%  
391 1.0% 93%  
392 1.3% 92%  
393 2% 91%  
394 2% 89%  
395 2% 87%  
396 2% 85%  
397 2% 83%  
398 3% 81%  
399 3% 78%  
400 3% 75%  
401 3% 71%  
402 4% 68%  
403 5% 65%  
404 5% 60%  
405 4% 55%  
406 5% 51% Median
407 4% 46%  
408 5% 42%  
409 4% 37%  
410 3% 33%  
411 2% 30%  
412 3% 28%  
413 3% 25%  
414 3% 22%  
415 2% 19%  
416 2% 16%  
417 2% 15%  
418 1.5% 13%  
419 2% 11%  
420 1.1% 10%  
421 1.1% 9%  
422 1.1% 8%  
423 1.0% 6%  
424 0.8% 5%  
425 0.4% 5%  
426 0.6% 4%  
427 0.6% 4%  
428 0.4% 3%  
429 0.3% 3%  
430 0.3% 2%  
431 0.3% 2%  
432 0.3% 2%  
433 0.2% 2%  
434 0.1% 1.3%  
435 0.1% 1.2%  
436 0.2% 1.1%  
437 0.1% 0.9%  
438 0.1% 0.8%  
439 0.1% 0.7%  
440 0.1% 0.7%  
441 0.1% 0.6%  
442 0.1% 0.5%  
443 0.1% 0.4%  
444 0% 0.3%  
445 0% 0.3%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0% 99.8%  
106 0% 99.8%  
107 0.1% 99.7%  
108 0.1% 99.7%  
109 0.1% 99.6%  
110 0.1% 99.5%  
111 0.1% 99.4%  
112 0.1% 99.4%  
113 0.1% 99.3%  
114 0.1% 99.2%  
115 0.1% 99.1%  
116 0.1% 99.0%  
117 0.1% 98.9%  
118 0.1% 98.8%  
119 0.2% 98.7%  
120 0.2% 98.6%  
121 0.2% 98%  
122 0.3% 98%  
123 0.3% 98%  
124 0.5% 98%  
125 0.5% 97%  
126 0.5% 97%  
127 0.6% 96%  
128 0.7% 96%  
129 1.0% 95%  
130 0.6% 94%  
131 1.2% 93%  
132 0.8% 92%  
133 1.2% 91%  
134 1.2% 90%  
135 2% 89%  
136 2% 87%  
137 2% 85%  
138 2% 84%  
139 3% 82%  
140 2% 79%  
141 2% 76%  
142 3% 74%  
143 3% 71%  
144 4% 68%  
145 4% 64%  
146 4% 60%  
147 3% 56%  
148 4% 54% Median
149 4% 50%  
150 4% 46%  
151 3% 41%  
152 3% 38%  
153 4% 35%  
154 4% 32%  
155 3% 28%  
156 3% 25%  
157 2% 22%  
158 2% 20%  
159 3% 18%  
160 2% 15%  
161 1.1% 13%  
162 2% 12%  
163 1.4% 10%  
164 1.0% 9%  
165 1.1% 8%  
166 0.8% 7%  
167 0.6% 6%  
168 0.6% 6%  
169 0.8% 5%  
170 0.5% 4%  
171 0.5% 4%  
172 0.4% 3%  
173 0.4% 3%  
174 0.4% 2%  
175 0.3% 2%  
176 0.3% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.2%  
178 0.2% 1.0%  
179 0.1% 0.7%  
180 0.1% 0.6%  
181 0.1% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.8%  
22 0.5% 99.7%  
23 1.2% 99.2%  
24 2% 98%  
25 3% 96%  
26 4% 93%  
27 8% 89%  
28 3% 82%  
29 4% 79%  
30 7% 75%  
31 10% 67%  
32 7% 57%  
33 5% 51% Median
34 3% 46%  
35 6% 43%  
36 8% 37%  
37 9% 29%  
38 9% 21%  
39 4% 12%  
40 4% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 60% 99.8% Median
4 39% 40%  
5 1.1% 2%  
6 0.3% 0.5%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.1% 99.8%  
21 0.4% 99.6%  
22 1.3% 99.2%  
23 0.6% 98%  
24 1.3% 97%  
25 0.7% 96%  
26 2% 95%  
27 2% 94%  
28 0.8% 92%  
29 2% 91%  
30 3% 89%  
31 0.7% 86%  
32 6% 85%  
33 0.8% 80%  
34 25% 79%  
35 1.0% 54%  
36 14% 53% Median
37 2% 38%  
38 13% 37%  
39 3% 23%  
40 5% 21%  
41 4% 15%  
42 3% 11%  
43 3% 9%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.6% 3%  
46 1.0% 2%  
47 0.2% 1.2%  
48 0.3% 1.0% Last Result
49 0.2% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.5%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 474 100% 460–489 454–494 450–499 442–513
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 439 100% 423–456 417–461 412–466 404–479
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 441 100% 430–453 425–458 421–462 414–475
Labour Party 202 406 100% 393–419 388–424 384–429 377–441
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 184 0% 167–200 162–205 157–210 143–219
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 181 0% 169–192 165–197 161–202 148–208
Conservative Party 365 148 0% 134–163 128–168 124–173 110–180

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.8%  
440 0.1% 99.8%  
441 0.1% 99.7%  
442 0.1% 99.6%  
443 0.1% 99.4%  
444 0.2% 99.3%  
445 0.2% 99.1%  
446 0.3% 98.9%  
447 0.3% 98.6%  
448 0.3% 98%  
449 0.4% 98%  
450 0.4% 98%  
451 0.4% 97%  
452 0.6% 97%  
453 0.7% 96%  
454 0.8% 95%  
455 0.6% 95%  
456 0.7% 94%  
457 0.8% 93%  
458 1.1% 93%  
459 1.3% 91%  
460 2% 90%  
461 1.5% 89%  
462 1.2% 87%  
463 3% 86%  
464 2% 83%  
465 2% 81%  
466 3% 79%  
467 3% 77%  
468 3% 74%  
469 4% 71%  
470 4% 67%  
471 3% 63%  
472 4% 60%  
473 4% 57%  
474 4% 53%  
475 4% 49% Median
476 3% 45%  
477 4% 42%  
478 4% 38%  
479 4% 34%  
480 3% 30%  
481 3% 28%  
482 2% 25%  
483 2% 23%  
484 3% 20%  
485 2% 17%  
486 2% 16%  
487 2% 14%  
488 2% 12%  
489 1.1% 11%  
490 1.2% 10%  
491 0.8% 8%  
492 1.0% 8%  
493 0.7% 7%  
494 0.9% 6%  
495 0.7% 5%  
496 0.6% 4%  
497 0.4% 4%  
498 0.5% 3%  
499 0.5% 3%  
500 0.3% 2%  
501 0.2% 2%  
502 0.2% 2%  
503 0.2% 2%  
504 0.1% 1.4%  
505 0.1% 1.3%  
506 0.1% 1.2%  
507 0.1% 1.1%  
508 0.1% 1.0%  
509 0.1% 0.9%  
510 0.1% 0.8%  
511 0.1% 0.7%  
512 0.1% 0.6%  
513 0.1% 0.5%  
514 0.1% 0.4%  
515 0.1% 0.4%  
516 0% 0.3%  
517 0% 0.2%  
518 0% 0.2%  
519 0% 0.2%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.8%  
401 0.1% 99.8%  
402 0.1% 99.7%  
403 0.1% 99.6%  
404 0.1% 99.5%  
405 0.2% 99.4%  
406 0.2% 99.3%  
407 0.2% 99.1%  
408 0.2% 98.9%  
409 0.3% 98.7%  
410 0.3% 98%  
411 0.4% 98%  
412 0.4% 98%  
413 0.3% 97%  
414 0.5% 97%  
415 0.5% 96%  
416 0.7% 96%  
417 0.6% 95%  
418 1.0% 95%  
419 0.8% 94%  
420 1.0% 93%  
421 0.9% 92%  
422 1.0% 91%  
423 1.1% 90%  
424 2% 89%  
425 2% 87%  
426 2% 85%  
427 2% 84%  
428 2% 82%  
429 2% 80%  
430 2% 77%  
431 2% 75%  
432 3% 73%  
433 3% 70%  
434 3% 67%  
435 3% 64%  
436 3% 61%  
437 3% 57%  
438 4% 54%  
439 3% 50% Median
440 3% 47%  
441 4% 44%  
442 3% 41%  
443 3% 38%  
444 3% 34%  
445 3% 31%  
446 2% 28%  
447 2% 26%  
448 2% 24%  
449 2% 22%  
450 2% 19%  
451 2% 17%  
452 2% 15%  
453 1.5% 14%  
454 1.3% 12%  
455 0.8% 11%  
456 1.3% 10%  
457 1.3% 9%  
458 0.9% 7%  
459 0.7% 7%  
460 0.8% 6%  
461 0.5% 5%  
462 0.6% 5%  
463 0.4% 4%  
464 0.4% 4%  
465 0.4% 3%  
466 0.3% 3%  
467 0.3% 2%  
468 0.2% 2%  
469 0.2% 2%  
470 0.2% 2%  
471 0.2% 1.4%  
472 0.1% 1.3%  
473 0.1% 1.1%  
474 0.1% 1.0%  
475 0.1% 0.9%  
476 0.1% 0.8%  
477 0.1% 0.7%  
478 0.1% 0.6%  
479 0.1% 0.6%  
480 0.1% 0.5%  
481 0% 0.4%  
482 0.1% 0.4%  
483 0.1% 0.3%  
484 0% 0.3%  
485 0% 0.2%  
486 0% 0.2%  
487 0% 0.2%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0.1% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.7%  
414 0.1% 99.6%  
415 0.2% 99.5%  
416 0.2% 99.3%  
417 0.3% 99.1%  
418 0.3% 98.8%  
419 0.4% 98%  
420 0.5% 98%  
421 0.5% 98%  
422 0.5% 97%  
423 0.7% 97%  
424 0.5% 96%  
425 0.8% 95%  
426 1.0% 95%  
427 1.0% 94%  
428 0.9% 93%  
429 0.8% 92%  
430 1.2% 91%  
431 2% 90%  
432 3% 88%  
433 3% 85%  
434 2% 82%  
435 2% 80%  
436 4% 78%  
437 4% 73%  
438 4% 69%  
439 5% 65%  
440 4% 60%  
441 6% 56%  
442 8% 50% Median
443 4% 41%  
444 3% 37%  
445 4% 34%  
446 4% 30%  
447 3% 26%  
448 4% 23%  
449 2% 19%  
450 3% 17%  
451 2% 15%  
452 1.4% 12%  
453 1.2% 11%  
454 0.8% 10%  
455 1.3% 9%  
456 1.0% 8%  
457 1.2% 7%  
458 1.1% 5%  
459 0.6% 4%  
460 0.4% 4%  
461 0.6% 3%  
462 0.7% 3%  
463 0.3% 2%  
464 0.2% 2%  
465 0.2% 2%  
466 0.1% 1.5%  
467 0.1% 1.3%  
468 0.1% 1.3%  
469 0.1% 1.2%  
470 0.1% 1.1%  
471 0.1% 1.0%  
472 0.1% 0.9%  
473 0.1% 0.8%  
474 0.1% 0.7%  
475 0.1% 0.5%  
476 0.1% 0.4%  
477 0.1% 0.3%  
478 0.1% 0.3%  
479 0% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.2%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.7%  
376 0.1% 99.6%  
377 0.2% 99.5%  
378 0.2% 99.4%  
379 0.3% 99.2%  
380 0.2% 98.9%  
381 0.3% 98.7%  
382 0.4% 98%  
383 0.4% 98%  
384 0.5% 98%  
385 0.6% 97%  
386 0.4% 96%  
387 0.8% 96%  
388 0.7% 95%  
389 0.9% 95%  
390 0.8% 94%  
391 1.0% 93%  
392 1.3% 92%  
393 2% 91%  
394 2% 89%  
395 2% 87%  
396 2% 85%  
397 2% 83%  
398 3% 81%  
399 3% 78%  
400 3% 75%  
401 3% 71%  
402 4% 68%  
403 5% 65%  
404 5% 60%  
405 4% 55%  
406 5% 51% Median
407 4% 46%  
408 5% 42%  
409 4% 37%  
410 3% 33%  
411 2% 30%  
412 3% 28%  
413 3% 25%  
414 3% 22%  
415 2% 19%  
416 2% 16%  
417 2% 15%  
418 1.5% 13%  
419 2% 11%  
420 1.1% 10%  
421 1.1% 9%  
422 1.1% 8%  
423 1.0% 6%  
424 0.8% 5%  
425 0.4% 5%  
426 0.6% 4%  
427 0.6% 4%  
428 0.4% 3%  
429 0.3% 3%  
430 0.3% 2%  
431 0.3% 2%  
432 0.3% 2%  
433 0.2% 2%  
434 0.1% 1.3%  
435 0.1% 1.2%  
436 0.2% 1.1%  
437 0.1% 0.9%  
438 0.1% 0.8%  
439 0.1% 0.7%  
440 0.1% 0.7%  
441 0.1% 0.6%  
442 0.1% 0.5%  
443 0.1% 0.4%  
444 0% 0.3%  
445 0% 0.3%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.8%  
138 0% 99.8%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.7%  
141 0.1% 99.7%  
142 0% 99.6%  
143 0.1% 99.6%  
144 0.1% 99.5%  
145 0.1% 99.4%  
146 0.1% 99.3%  
147 0.1% 99.3%  
148 0.1% 99.2%  
149 0.1% 99.1%  
150 0.1% 98.9%  
151 0.1% 98.8%  
152 0.2% 98.7%  
153 0.2% 98.5%  
154 0.2% 98%  
155 0.3% 98%  
156 0.3% 98%  
157 0.3% 98%  
158 0.4% 97%  
159 0.4% 97%  
160 0.5% 96%  
161 0.6% 96%  
162 0.5% 95%  
163 0.8% 95%  
164 0.7% 94%  
165 1.0% 93%  
166 1.2% 92%  
167 1.3% 91%  
168 0.9% 90%  
169 1.4% 89%  
170 1.4% 87%  
171 2% 86%  
172 2% 84%  
173 2% 82%  
174 2% 80%  
175 2% 78%  
176 3% 76%  
177 2% 73%  
178 3% 71%  
179 4% 68%  
180 3% 64%  
181 3% 61%  
182 3% 58%  
183 3% 54%  
184 4% 52% Median
185 4% 48%  
186 3% 44%  
187 3% 41%  
188 4% 38%  
189 3% 34%  
190 3% 31%  
191 3% 29%  
192 2% 26%  
193 2% 24%  
194 3% 22%  
195 2% 19%  
196 2% 17%  
197 2% 16%  
198 2% 14%  
199 2% 12%  
200 0.9% 10%  
201 0.9% 9%  
202 0.9% 8%  
203 0.9% 8%  
204 0.9% 7%  
205 0.7% 6%  
206 0.6% 5%  
207 0.7% 4%  
208 0.5% 4%  
209 0.4% 3%  
210 0.3% 3%  
211 0.5% 2%  
212 0.3% 2%  
213 0.3% 2%  
214 0.3% 1.4%  
215 0.2% 1.2%  
216 0.2% 1.0%  
217 0.2% 0.8%  
218 0.1% 0.6%  
219 0.1% 0.5%  
220 0.1% 0.4%  
221 0.1% 0.3%  
222 0.1% 0.3%  
223 0.1% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.7%  
147 0.1% 99.6%  
148 0.1% 99.5%  
149 0.1% 99.4%  
150 0.1% 99.3%  
151 0.1% 99.2%  
152 0.1% 99.1%  
153 0.1% 99.0%  
154 0.1% 98.8%  
155 0% 98.8%  
156 0.1% 98.7%  
157 0.1% 98.7%  
158 0.2% 98.5%  
159 0.2% 98%  
160 0.3% 98%  
161 0.8% 98%  
162 0.6% 97%  
163 0.4% 96%  
164 0.6% 96%  
165 1.1% 95%  
166 2% 94%  
167 0.6% 93%  
168 1.4% 92%  
169 0.8% 91%  
170 1.2% 90%  
171 2% 89%  
172 3% 87%  
173 2% 84%  
174 2% 82%  
175 4% 80%  
176 3% 76%  
177 4% 73%  
178 3% 68%  
179 4% 65%  
180 5% 62%  
181 9% 56% Median
182 5% 47%  
183 4% 42%  
184 5% 38%  
185 4% 33%  
186 4% 29%  
187 4% 25%  
188 2% 21%  
189 3% 19%  
190 3% 16%  
191 1.5% 13%  
192 2% 12%  
193 0.9% 10%  
194 0.9% 9%  
195 0.8% 8%  
196 1.2% 7%  
197 0.9% 6%  
198 0.5% 5%  
199 0.7% 4%  
200 0.6% 4%  
201 0.5% 3%  
202 0.4% 3%  
203 0.6% 2%  
204 0.3% 2%  
205 0.4% 1.3%  
206 0.2% 1.0%  
207 0.2% 0.8%  
208 0.1% 0.6%  
209 0.1% 0.4%  
210 0.1% 0.3%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0% 99.8%  
106 0% 99.8%  
107 0.1% 99.7%  
108 0.1% 99.7%  
109 0.1% 99.6%  
110 0.1% 99.5%  
111 0.1% 99.4%  
112 0.1% 99.4%  
113 0.1% 99.3%  
114 0.1% 99.2%  
115 0.1% 99.1%  
116 0.1% 99.0%  
117 0.1% 98.9%  
118 0.1% 98.8%  
119 0.2% 98.7%  
120 0.2% 98.6%  
121 0.2% 98%  
122 0.3% 98%  
123 0.3% 98%  
124 0.5% 98%  
125 0.5% 97%  
126 0.5% 97%  
127 0.6% 96%  
128 0.7% 96%  
129 1.0% 95%  
130 0.6% 94%  
131 1.2% 93%  
132 0.8% 92%  
133 1.2% 91%  
134 1.2% 90%  
135 2% 89%  
136 2% 87%  
137 2% 85%  
138 2% 84%  
139 3% 82%  
140 2% 79%  
141 2% 76%  
142 3% 74%  
143 3% 71%  
144 4% 68%  
145 4% 64%  
146 4% 60%  
147 3% 56%  
148 4% 54% Median
149 4% 50%  
150 4% 46%  
151 3% 41%  
152 3% 38%  
153 4% 35%  
154 4% 32%  
155 3% 28%  
156 3% 25%  
157 2% 22%  
158 2% 20%  
159 3% 18%  
160 2% 15%  
161 1.1% 13%  
162 2% 12%  
163 1.4% 10%  
164 1.0% 9%  
165 1.1% 8%  
166 0.8% 7%  
167 0.6% 6%  
168 0.6% 6%  
169 0.8% 5%  
170 0.5% 4%  
171 0.5% 4%  
172 0.4% 3%  
173 0.4% 3%  
174 0.4% 2%  
175 0.3% 2%  
176 0.3% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.2%  
178 0.2% 1.0%  
179 0.1% 0.7%  
180 0.1% 0.6%  
181 0.1% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations