Opinion Poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 31 March 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 49.5% 48.0–51.0% 47.5–51.4% 47.2–51.7% 46.4–52.5%
Conservative Party 43.6% 23.6% 22.4–25.0% 22.0–25.3% 21.7–25.6% 21.1–26.3%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 10.7% 9.9–11.7% 9.6–12.0% 9.4–12.3% 9.0–12.7%
Brexit Party 2.0% 6.6% 5.9–7.4% 5.7–7.6% 5.5–7.8% 5.2–8.2%
Green Party 2.8% 4.2% 3.7–4.9% 3.5–5.1% 3.4–5.3% 3.1–5.6%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 3.2% 2.8–3.8% 2.6–4.0% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 435 408–458 403–465 398–470 389–479
Conservative Party 365 112 86–140 79–146 72–150 63–159
Liberal Democrats 11 38 30–47 27–50 25–51 22–53
Brexit Party 0 4 3–11 3–12 3–14 3–18
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Scottish National Party 48 34 27–44 25–45 22–48 20–53

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.8%  
385 0% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.7%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.1% 99.6%  
389 0.1% 99.5%  
390 0.1% 99.4%  
391 0.2% 99.3%  
392 0.2% 99.2%  
393 0.2% 99.0%  
394 0.2% 98.8%  
395 0.2% 98.6%  
396 0.3% 98%  
397 0.4% 98%  
398 0.4% 98%  
399 0.5% 97%  
400 0.6% 97%  
401 0.6% 96%  
402 0.6% 96%  
403 0.7% 95%  
404 0.9% 94%  
405 0.8% 93%  
406 1.0% 93%  
407 1.2% 92%  
408 1.3% 91%  
409 1.0% 89%  
410 1.1% 88%  
411 1.4% 87%  
412 1.4% 86%  
413 2% 84%  
414 1.2% 83%  
415 1.2% 82%  
416 2% 80%  
417 2% 79%  
418 1.2% 77%  
419 2% 76%  
420 2% 74%  
421 1.3% 72%  
422 2% 71%  
423 2% 69%  
424 2% 67%  
425 1.2% 66%  
426 1.4% 64%  
427 2% 63%  
428 1.5% 61%  
429 2% 60%  
430 1.3% 58%  
431 1.3% 56%  
432 2% 55%  
433 1.3% 54%  
434 2% 52%  
435 2% 50% Median
436 2% 49%  
437 2% 47%  
438 2% 46%  
439 2% 44%  
440 2% 42%  
441 2% 40%  
442 2% 38%  
443 2% 36%  
444 2% 34%  
445 2% 33%  
446 2% 30%  
447 2% 28%  
448 2% 26%  
449 2% 25%  
450 2% 23%  
451 1.5% 21%  
452 1.3% 19%  
453 2% 18%  
454 2% 17%  
455 1.2% 15%  
456 1.1% 14%  
457 2% 13%  
458 1.1% 11%  
459 1.0% 10%  
460 0.7% 9%  
461 0.6% 8%  
462 0.7% 7%  
463 0.8% 7%  
464 0.6% 6%  
465 0.6% 5%  
466 0.6% 5%  
467 0.5% 4%  
468 0.4% 3%  
469 0.4% 3%  
470 0.3% 3%  
471 0.3% 2%  
472 0.3% 2%  
473 0.2% 2%  
474 0.2% 2%  
475 0.3% 1.3%  
476 0.2% 1.1%  
477 0.1% 0.9%  
478 0.2% 0.8%  
479 0.1% 0.6%  
480 0.1% 0.5%  
481 0.1% 0.4%  
482 0% 0.3%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0.1% 0.2%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.2% 99.6%  
64 0.1% 99.4%  
65 0.1% 99.3%  
66 0.1% 99.2%  
67 0.2% 99.1%  
68 0.2% 98.9%  
69 0.2% 98.7%  
70 0.3% 98.5%  
71 0.4% 98%  
72 0.4% 98%  
73 0.3% 97%  
74 0.2% 97%  
75 0.4% 97%  
76 0.3% 97%  
77 0.3% 96%  
78 0.7% 96%  
79 0.8% 95%  
80 0.6% 94%  
81 0.6% 94%  
82 0.7% 93%  
83 0.9% 92%  
84 0.8% 92%  
85 0.4% 91%  
86 0.6% 90%  
87 1.2% 90%  
88 1.1% 89%  
89 1.2% 87%  
90 1.4% 86%  
91 2% 85%  
92 2% 83%  
93 2% 81%  
94 1.5% 80%  
95 1.5% 78%  
96 1.3% 77%  
97 2% 75%  
98 2% 74%  
99 2% 72%  
100 2% 70%  
101 2% 68%  
102 1.3% 67%  
103 1.5% 65%  
104 2% 64%  
105 2% 62%  
106 1.2% 60%  
107 2% 59%  
108 2% 57%  
109 2% 56%  
110 2% 54%  
111 1.3% 52%  
112 2% 51% Median
113 1.3% 49%  
114 1.3% 48%  
115 2% 46%  
116 1.2% 45%  
117 0.9% 44%  
118 0.9% 43%  
119 1.2% 42%  
120 1.1% 41%  
121 2% 39%  
122 2% 38%  
123 1.4% 36%  
124 1.4% 34%  
125 2% 33%  
126 2% 31%  
127 2% 30%  
128 2% 28%  
129 1.2% 26%  
130 2% 25%  
131 2% 23%  
132 1.0% 21%  
133 2% 20%  
134 2% 19%  
135 1.2% 17%  
136 1.4% 16%  
137 1.1% 14%  
138 1.3% 13%  
139 1.0% 12%  
140 1.1% 11%  
141 0.9% 10%  
142 1.1% 9%  
143 0.8% 8%  
144 1.0% 7%  
145 0.9% 6%  
146 0.6% 5%  
147 0.6% 5%  
148 0.5% 4%  
149 0.5% 3%  
150 0.5% 3%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.2% 2%  
153 0.4% 2%  
154 0.3% 1.4%  
155 0.2% 1.1%  
156 0.2% 0.9%  
157 0.1% 0.7%  
158 0.1% 0.6%  
159 0.1% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.8%  
23 0.5% 99.5%  
24 0.7% 99.0%  
25 0.7% 98%  
26 0.9% 97%  
27 2% 97%  
28 2% 94%  
29 2% 93%  
30 2% 91%  
31 3% 89%  
32 3% 86%  
33 3% 83%  
34 3% 80%  
35 6% 77%  
36 6% 70%  
37 10% 64%  
38 7% 54% Median
39 10% 47%  
40 8% 37%  
41 6% 28%  
42 4% 22%  
43 2% 18%  
44 1.3% 15%  
45 2% 14%  
46 2% 12%  
47 1.4% 10%  
48 1.0% 9%  
49 2% 8%  
50 3% 6%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.3% 0.9%  
53 0.2% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 12% 100%  
4 51% 88% Median
5 12% 36%  
6 7% 25%  
7 5% 18%  
8 1.1% 13%  
9 0.8% 12%  
10 1.0% 11%  
11 2% 10%  
12 4% 8%  
13 2% 5%  
14 1.3% 3%  
15 0.1% 1.4%  
16 0.6% 1.2%  
17 0.1% 0.7%  
18 0.3% 0.6%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.1% 99.8%  
20 0.3% 99.6%  
21 1.0% 99.3%  
22 1.4% 98%  
23 1.0% 97%  
24 0.6% 96%  
25 3% 95%  
26 1.1% 92%  
27 3% 91%  
28 0.7% 89%  
29 6% 88%  
30 3% 82%  
31 0.4% 79%  
32 7% 79%  
33 0.8% 71%  
34 22% 71% Median
35 1.2% 48%  
36 10% 47%  
37 1.5% 37%  
38 9% 36%  
39 2% 26%  
40 5% 25%  
41 4% 20%  
42 3% 16%  
43 3% 13%  
44 4% 10%  
45 0.9% 6%  
46 1.5% 5%  
47 0.5% 3%  
48 0.7% 3% Last Result
49 0.4% 2%  
50 0.4% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.4%  
52 0.4% 0.9%  
53 0.2% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 508 100% 479–533 474–541 469–547 460–557
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 472 100% 443–500 436–508 430–514 419–525
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 471 100% 445–491 440–498 436–503 428–510
Labour Party 202 435 100% 408–458 403–465 398–470 389–479
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 147 0% 119–177 112–184 105–189 95–199
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 149 0% 129–175 121–179 117–182 110–189
Conservative Party 365 112 0% 86–140 79–146 72–150 63–159

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 99.9%  
449 0% 99.9%  
450 0% 99.9%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.8%  
455 0% 99.8%  
456 0.1% 99.8%  
457 0.1% 99.7%  
458 0.1% 99.6%  
459 0.1% 99.6%  
460 0.1% 99.5%  
461 0.1% 99.4%  
462 0.1% 99.3%  
463 0.2% 99.1%  
464 0.2% 99.0%  
465 0.2% 98.7%  
466 0.3% 98.6%  
467 0.3% 98%  
468 0.4% 98%  
469 0.5% 98%  
470 0.4% 97%  
471 0.5% 97%  
472 0.6% 96%  
473 0.6% 96%  
474 0.9% 95%  
475 0.7% 94%  
476 0.7% 94%  
477 0.9% 93%  
478 1.0% 92%  
479 1.1% 91%  
480 1.0% 90%  
481 1.1% 89%  
482 1.0% 88%  
483 1.0% 87%  
484 1.4% 86%  
485 1.2% 84%  
486 1.4% 83%  
487 1.5% 82%  
488 1.4% 80%  
489 2% 79%  
490 1.3% 77%  
491 1.5% 76%  
492 1.4% 75%  
493 2% 73%  
494 2% 72%  
495 2% 70%  
496 1.4% 68%  
497 2% 67%  
498 1.2% 65%  
499 2% 64%  
500 2% 62%  
501 1.4% 60%  
502 1.2% 59%  
503 1.1% 58%  
504 1.0% 56%  
505 1.4% 55%  
506 1.3% 54%  
507 2% 53% Median
508 1.2% 51%  
509 2% 50%  
510 2% 48%  
511 2% 47%  
512 2% 45%  
513 2% 43%  
514 2% 41%  
515 2% 39%  
516 2% 38%  
517 2% 36%  
518 2% 34%  
519 2% 32%  
520 2% 31%  
521 2% 29%  
522 2% 27%  
523 2% 25%  
524 2% 24%  
525 1.2% 22%  
526 2% 21%  
527 2% 19%  
528 2% 18%  
529 2% 16%  
530 1.4% 14%  
531 1.2% 13%  
532 1.1% 12%  
533 0.7% 11%  
534 0.7% 10%  
535 0.6% 9%  
536 0.6% 9%  
537 0.7% 8%  
538 0.7% 7%  
539 0.6% 6%  
540 0.6% 6%  
541 0.8% 5%  
542 0.5% 4%  
543 0.4% 4%  
544 0.3% 4%  
545 0.4% 3%  
546 0.2% 3%  
547 0.2% 3%  
548 0.4% 2%  
549 0.3% 2%  
550 0.3% 2%  
551 0.2% 1.4%  
552 0.2% 1.2%  
553 0.1% 1.0%  
554 0.1% 0.9%  
555 0.1% 0.8%  
556 0.1% 0.7%  
557 0.1% 0.5%  
558 0.1% 0.4%  
559 0.1% 0.3%  
560 0% 0.2%  
561 0% 0.1%  
562 0% 0.1%  
563 0% 0.1%  
564 0% 0.1%  
565 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.8%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.7%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.1% 99.6%  
419 0.1% 99.6%  
420 0.1% 99.5%  
421 0.1% 99.4%  
422 0.1% 99.3%  
423 0.2% 99.2%  
424 0.2% 99.0%  
425 0.2% 98.9%  
426 0.2% 98.7%  
427 0.2% 98%  
428 0.3% 98%  
429 0.3% 98%  
430 0.3% 98%  
431 0.4% 97%  
432 0.4% 97%  
433 0.5% 97%  
434 0.5% 96%  
435 0.5% 96%  
436 0.5% 95%  
437 0.7% 95%  
438 0.9% 94%  
439 0.7% 93%  
440 0.9% 92%  
441 0.7% 92%  
442 0.7% 91%  
443 1.0% 90%  
444 1.2% 89%  
445 1.0% 88%  
446 1.2% 87%  
447 1.1% 86%  
448 1.1% 85%  
449 1.0% 84%  
450 1.3% 83%  
451 1.4% 81%  
452 2% 80%  
453 1.2% 78%  
454 2% 77%  
455 0.9% 75%  
456 1.2% 75%  
457 2% 73%  
458 1.1% 72%  
459 2% 71%  
460 1.4% 69%  
461 2% 67%  
462 0.9% 66%  
463 2% 65%  
464 2% 63%  
465 1.5% 61%  
466 1.0% 60%  
467 1.2% 59%  
468 2% 57%  
469 1.3% 56%  
470 1.1% 54%  
471 2% 53%  
472 1.5% 51%  
473 1.3% 50% Median
474 1.4% 49%  
475 1.4% 47%  
476 2% 46%  
477 2% 44%  
478 1.4% 42%  
479 2% 41%  
480 2% 39%  
481 1.1% 37%  
482 1.3% 36%  
483 2% 35%  
484 2% 33%  
485 2% 32%  
486 2% 29%  
487 1.3% 27%  
488 2% 26%  
489 2% 24%  
490 1.3% 23%  
491 1.3% 21%  
492 1.1% 20%  
493 0.9% 19%  
494 1.3% 18%  
495 2% 17%  
496 1.4% 15%  
497 1.3% 14%  
498 1.2% 13%  
499 0.9% 11%  
500 0.7% 11%  
501 0.7% 10%  
502 0.8% 9%  
503 0.8% 8%  
504 0.7% 7%  
505 0.5% 7%  
506 0.5% 6%  
507 0.6% 6%  
508 0.6% 5%  
509 0.4% 5%  
510 0.4% 4%  
511 0.4% 4%  
512 0.3% 3%  
513 0.3% 3%  
514 0.3% 3%  
515 0.3% 2%  
516 0.3% 2%  
517 0.2% 2%  
518 0.2% 2%  
519 0.2% 1.4%  
520 0.2% 1.3%  
521 0.2% 1.1%  
522 0.1% 0.9%  
523 0.1% 0.8%  
524 0.1% 0.6%  
525 0.1% 0.5%  
526 0.1% 0.4%  
527 0.1% 0.4%  
528 0% 0.3%  
529 0% 0.2%  
530 0% 0.2%  
531 0% 0.2%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.8%  
424 0% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.8%  
426 0.1% 99.7%  
427 0.1% 99.6%  
428 0.1% 99.6%  
429 0.1% 99.5%  
430 0.2% 99.4%  
431 0.1% 99.2%  
432 0.3% 99.0%  
433 0.3% 98.8%  
434 0.3% 98.5%  
435 0.3% 98%  
436 0.4% 98%  
437 0.5% 97%  
438 0.7% 97%  
439 0.6% 96%  
440 1.0% 96%  
441 0.9% 95%  
442 1.0% 94%  
443 1.1% 93%  
444 1.1% 92%  
445 1.2% 91%  
446 1.4% 89%  
447 2% 88%  
448 1.4% 86%  
449 1.4% 85%  
450 2% 84%  
451 2% 82%  
452 1.4% 80%  
453 1.3% 79%  
454 2% 78%  
455 2% 76%  
456 2% 74%  
457 2% 72%  
458 2% 70%  
459 1.5% 68%  
460 2% 67%  
461 2% 65%  
462 2% 62%  
463 1.3% 61%  
464 2% 59%  
465 1.3% 57%  
466 0.7% 56%  
467 0.6% 55%  
468 1.5% 55%  
469 1.0% 53% Median
470 2% 52%  
471 2% 51%  
472 2% 49%  
473 2% 47%  
474 2% 45%  
475 2% 43%  
476 2% 41%  
477 2% 39%  
478 2% 37%  
479 2% 35%  
480 3% 33%  
481 2% 30%  
482 2% 28%  
483 2% 25%  
484 2% 23%  
485 1.0% 21%  
486 1.0% 20%  
487 2% 19%  
488 3% 18%  
489 2% 15%  
490 1.3% 13%  
491 3% 12%  
492 1.4% 9%  
493 0.8% 8%  
494 0.7% 7%  
495 0.5% 7%  
496 0.3% 6%  
497 0.6% 6%  
498 0.4% 5%  
499 0.4% 5%  
500 0.6% 4%  
501 0.6% 4%  
502 0.4% 3%  
503 0.4% 3%  
504 0.4% 2%  
505 0.3% 2%  
506 0.2% 2%  
507 0.3% 2%  
508 0.3% 1.2%  
509 0.2% 0.9%  
510 0.2% 0.7%  
511 0.1% 0.4%  
512 0.1% 0.3%  
513 0.1% 0.2%  
514 0.1% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.8%  
385 0% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.7%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.1% 99.6%  
389 0.1% 99.5%  
390 0.1% 99.4%  
391 0.2% 99.3%  
392 0.2% 99.2%  
393 0.2% 99.0%  
394 0.2% 98.8%  
395 0.2% 98.6%  
396 0.3% 98%  
397 0.4% 98%  
398 0.4% 98%  
399 0.5% 97%  
400 0.6% 97%  
401 0.6% 96%  
402 0.6% 96%  
403 0.7% 95%  
404 0.9% 94%  
405 0.8% 93%  
406 1.0% 93%  
407 1.2% 92%  
408 1.3% 91%  
409 1.0% 89%  
410 1.1% 88%  
411 1.4% 87%  
412 1.4% 86%  
413 2% 84%  
414 1.2% 83%  
415 1.2% 82%  
416 2% 80%  
417 2% 79%  
418 1.2% 77%  
419 2% 76%  
420 2% 74%  
421 1.3% 72%  
422 2% 71%  
423 2% 69%  
424 2% 67%  
425 1.2% 66%  
426 1.4% 64%  
427 2% 63%  
428 1.5% 61%  
429 2% 60%  
430 1.3% 58%  
431 1.3% 56%  
432 2% 55%  
433 1.3% 54%  
434 2% 52%  
435 2% 50% Median
436 2% 49%  
437 2% 47%  
438 2% 46%  
439 2% 44%  
440 2% 42%  
441 2% 40%  
442 2% 38%  
443 2% 36%  
444 2% 34%  
445 2% 33%  
446 2% 30%  
447 2% 28%  
448 2% 26%  
449 2% 25%  
450 2% 23%  
451 1.5% 21%  
452 1.3% 19%  
453 2% 18%  
454 2% 17%  
455 1.2% 15%  
456 1.1% 14%  
457 2% 13%  
458 1.1% 11%  
459 1.0% 10%  
460 0.7% 9%  
461 0.6% 8%  
462 0.7% 7%  
463 0.8% 7%  
464 0.6% 6%  
465 0.6% 5%  
466 0.6% 5%  
467 0.5% 4%  
468 0.4% 3%  
469 0.4% 3%  
470 0.3% 3%  
471 0.3% 2%  
472 0.3% 2%  
473 0.2% 2%  
474 0.2% 2%  
475 0.3% 1.3%  
476 0.2% 1.1%  
477 0.1% 0.9%  
478 0.2% 0.8%  
479 0.1% 0.6%  
480 0.1% 0.5%  
481 0.1% 0.4%  
482 0% 0.3%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0.1% 0.2%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.8%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0% 99.7%  
93 0.1% 99.7%  
94 0.1% 99.6%  
95 0.1% 99.5%  
96 0.1% 99.5%  
97 0.1% 99.3%  
98 0.2% 99.2%  
99 0.2% 99.0%  
100 0.2% 98.9%  
101 0.2% 98.7%  
102 0.2% 98.5%  
103 0.2% 98%  
104 0.3% 98%  
105 0.4% 98%  
106 0.3% 97%  
107 0.3% 97%  
108 0.4% 97%  
109 0.4% 96%  
110 0.5% 96%  
111 0.3% 96%  
112 0.7% 95%  
113 0.7% 95%  
114 0.4% 94%  
115 0.6% 94%  
116 0.7% 93%  
117 0.8% 92%  
118 0.9% 91%  
119 0.7% 90%  
120 1.0% 90%  
121 1.1% 89%  
122 1.0% 88%  
123 1.2% 87%  
124 1.1% 85%  
125 2% 84%  
126 1.2% 83%  
127 1.1% 81%  
128 1.2% 80%  
129 1.4% 79%  
130 2% 78%  
131 1.0% 76%  
132 2% 75%  
133 2% 74%  
134 2% 72%  
135 2% 70%  
136 2% 68%  
137 2% 67%  
138 1.3% 65%  
139 1.4% 64%  
140 2% 62%  
141 2% 61%  
142 1.3% 59%  
143 2% 58%  
144 1.4% 56%  
145 2% 55%  
146 2% 53% Median
147 2% 51%  
148 1.3% 50%  
149 1.3% 49%  
150 1.5% 47%  
151 2% 46%  
152 1.1% 44%  
153 1.0% 43%  
154 2% 42%  
155 1.1% 40%  
156 2% 39%  
157 2% 38%  
158 1.4% 36%  
159 2% 35%  
160 1.3% 33%  
161 2% 32%  
162 2% 30%  
163 1.2% 28%  
164 1.4% 27%  
165 1.5% 26%  
166 1.1% 24%  
167 1.2% 23%  
168 2% 22%  
169 1.4% 20%  
170 1.3% 19%  
171 1.4% 18%  
172 1.1% 16%  
173 0.9% 15%  
174 1.2% 14%  
175 1.2% 13%  
176 1.0% 12%  
177 1.0% 11%  
178 0.9% 10%  
179 0.9% 9%  
180 0.8% 8%  
181 0.6% 7%  
182 0.7% 7%  
183 0.8% 6%  
184 0.5% 5%  
185 0.6% 5%  
186 0.4% 4%  
187 0.4% 4%  
188 0.3% 3%  
189 0.4% 3%  
190 0.4% 2%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.3% 2%  
193 0.2% 2%  
194 0.2% 1.3%  
195 0.2% 1.1%  
196 0.2% 0.9%  
197 0.1% 0.8%  
198 0.1% 0.7%  
199 0.1% 0.5%  
200 0.1% 0.5%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.3%  
203 0.1% 0.3%  
204 0% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.1% 99.7%  
110 0.2% 99.6%  
111 0.3% 99.3%  
112 0.3% 99.1%  
113 0.4% 98.7%  
114 0.3% 98%  
115 0.2% 98%  
116 0.3% 98%  
117 0.5% 98%  
118 0.4% 97%  
119 0.7% 97%  
120 0.7% 96%  
121 0.5% 95%  
122 0.2% 95%  
123 0.7% 95%  
124 0.3% 94%  
125 0.4% 94%  
126 0.8% 93%  
127 0.6% 92%  
128 1.4% 92%  
129 3% 90%  
130 2% 87%  
131 0.9% 86%  
132 4% 85%  
133 2% 81%  
134 0.6% 79%  
135 0.6% 79%  
136 2% 78%  
137 2% 76%  
138 2% 74%  
139 3% 72%  
140 2% 69%  
141 2% 67%  
142 2% 65%  
143 1.4% 63%  
144 2% 61%  
145 2% 59%  
146 2% 57%  
147 3% 56%  
148 2% 53%  
149 3% 51%  
150 1.0% 49% Median
151 1.5% 48%  
152 1.2% 46%  
153 1.4% 45%  
154 0.6% 44%  
155 0.4% 43%  
156 0.8% 43%  
157 0.8% 42%  
158 2% 41%  
159 1.4% 39%  
160 2% 37%  
161 3% 36%  
162 2% 33%  
163 2% 30%  
164 2% 29%  
165 2% 27%  
166 2% 25%  
167 2% 22%  
168 1.5% 21%  
169 1.2% 19%  
170 1.2% 18%  
171 1.4% 17%  
172 2% 15%  
173 2% 14%  
174 1.2% 12%  
175 2% 11%  
176 1.3% 9%  
177 1.3% 8%  
178 1.1% 7%  
179 0.7% 6%  
180 1.1% 5%  
181 0.9% 4%  
182 0.8% 3%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.4%  
186 0.2% 1.1%  
187 0.2% 0.9%  
188 0.1% 0.7%  
189 0.1% 0.6%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.2% 99.6%  
64 0.1% 99.4%  
65 0.1% 99.3%  
66 0.1% 99.2%  
67 0.2% 99.1%  
68 0.2% 98.9%  
69 0.2% 98.7%  
70 0.3% 98.5%  
71 0.4% 98%  
72 0.4% 98%  
73 0.3% 97%  
74 0.2% 97%  
75 0.4% 97%  
76 0.3% 97%  
77 0.3% 96%  
78 0.7% 96%  
79 0.8% 95%  
80 0.6% 94%  
81 0.6% 94%  
82 0.7% 93%  
83 0.9% 92%  
84 0.8% 92%  
85 0.4% 91%  
86 0.6% 90%  
87 1.2% 90%  
88 1.1% 89%  
89 1.2% 87%  
90 1.4% 86%  
91 2% 85%  
92 2% 83%  
93 2% 81%  
94 1.5% 80%  
95 1.5% 78%  
96 1.3% 77%  
97 2% 75%  
98 2% 74%  
99 2% 72%  
100 2% 70%  
101 2% 68%  
102 1.3% 67%  
103 1.5% 65%  
104 2% 64%  
105 2% 62%  
106 1.2% 60%  
107 2% 59%  
108 2% 57%  
109 2% 56%  
110 2% 54%  
111 1.3% 52%  
112 2% 51% Median
113 1.3% 49%  
114 1.3% 48%  
115 2% 46%  
116 1.2% 45%  
117 0.9% 44%  
118 0.9% 43%  
119 1.2% 42%  
120 1.1% 41%  
121 2% 39%  
122 2% 38%  
123 1.4% 36%  
124 1.4% 34%  
125 2% 33%  
126 2% 31%  
127 2% 30%  
128 2% 28%  
129 1.2% 26%  
130 2% 25%  
131 2% 23%  
132 1.0% 21%  
133 2% 20%  
134 2% 19%  
135 1.2% 17%  
136 1.4% 16%  
137 1.1% 14%  
138 1.3% 13%  
139 1.0% 12%  
140 1.1% 11%  
141 0.9% 10%  
142 1.1% 9%  
143 0.8% 8%  
144 1.0% 7%  
145 0.9% 6%  
146 0.6% 5%  
147 0.6% 5%  
148 0.5% 4%  
149 0.5% 3%  
150 0.5% 3%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.2% 2%  
153 0.4% 2%  
154 0.3% 1.4%  
155 0.2% 1.1%  
156 0.2% 0.9%  
157 0.1% 0.7%  
158 0.1% 0.6%  
159 0.1% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations