Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI, 4 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 46.2% 44.2–48.3% 43.6–48.9% 43.1–49.4% 42.1–50.4%
Conservative Party 43.6% 24.7% 23.0–26.6% 22.5–27.1% 22.1–27.6% 21.2–28.5%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 8.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.2–10.2% 7.0–10.6% 6.5–11.2%
Green Party 2.8% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.1% 6.0–9.4% 5.6–10.0%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.8–7.6%
Brexit Party 2.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.1% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 387 364–416 359–427 354–433 342–448
Conservative Party 365 156 124–182 111–188 104–194 89–207
Liberal Democrats 11 19 14–27 10–31 7–33 7–37
Green Party 1 3 3 2–3 2–4 1–5
Scottish National Party 48 58 55–58 54–58 52–58 46–58
Brexit Party 0 3 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Plaid Cymru 4 5 5–6 4–6 4–7 3–7

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0% 99.5%  
343 0.1% 99.5%  
344 0.1% 99.4%  
345 0.1% 99.3%  
346 0.2% 99.2%  
347 0.3% 99.0%  
348 0.1% 98.7%  
349 0.1% 98.6%  
350 0.1% 98.5%  
351 0.2% 98%  
352 0.1% 98%  
353 0.2% 98%  
354 0.4% 98%  
355 0.4% 97%  
356 0.6% 97%  
357 0.5% 96%  
358 0.5% 96%  
359 0.6% 95%  
360 2% 95%  
361 0.6% 93%  
362 0.7% 92%  
363 1.2% 92%  
364 1.0% 91%  
365 1.4% 90%  
366 2% 88%  
367 0.7% 86%  
368 1.4% 86%  
369 1.1% 84%  
370 0.8% 83%  
371 0.9% 82%  
372 0.7% 81%  
373 0.6% 81%  
374 1.0% 80%  
375 2% 79%  
376 3% 77%  
377 2% 75%  
378 2% 73%  
379 3% 71%  
380 2% 68%  
381 2% 66%  
382 1.5% 64%  
383 2% 63%  
384 2% 61%  
385 3% 59%  
386 2% 56%  
387 6% 53% Median
388 3% 48%  
389 2% 45%  
390 2% 43%  
391 2% 41%  
392 3% 39%  
393 1.0% 37%  
394 4% 36%  
395 2% 32%  
396 2% 30%  
397 2% 28%  
398 2% 26%  
399 1.3% 24%  
400 1.5% 23%  
401 0.5% 22%  
402 1.2% 21%  
403 1.0% 20%  
404 0.7% 19%  
405 0.9% 18%  
406 1.1% 17%  
407 1.1% 16%  
408 1.1% 15%  
409 0.4% 14%  
410 1.4% 13%  
411 0.4% 12%  
412 0.5% 12%  
413 0.2% 11%  
414 0.2% 11%  
415 0.5% 11%  
416 0.3% 10%  
417 0.5% 10%  
418 0.8% 9%  
419 0.4% 8%  
420 0.5% 8%  
421 0.5% 8%  
422 0.4% 7%  
423 0.2% 7%  
424 0.6% 6%  
425 0.3% 6%  
426 0.3% 6%  
427 0.4% 5%  
428 0.8% 5%  
429 0.7% 4%  
430 0.5% 3%  
431 0.1% 3%  
432 0.3% 3%  
433 0.3% 3%  
434 0.1% 2%  
435 0.2% 2%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.1% 2%  
439 0.2% 1.4%  
440 0.2% 1.2%  
441 0.1% 1.0%  
442 0.1% 0.9%  
443 0.1% 0.8%  
444 0% 0.7%  
445 0% 0.7%  
446 0% 0.6%  
447 0% 0.6%  
448 0.1% 0.5%  
449 0.1% 0.5%  
450 0.1% 0.4%  
451 0% 0.4%  
452 0.1% 0.3%  
453 0% 0.3%  
454 0% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 0% 99.8%  
80 0% 99.8%  
81 0% 99.8%  
82 0% 99.7%  
83 0% 99.7%  
84 0% 99.7%  
85 0% 99.7%  
86 0% 99.6%  
87 0% 99.6%  
88 0% 99.5%  
89 0.1% 99.5%  
90 0.1% 99.4%  
91 0.1% 99.3%  
92 0.1% 99.2%  
93 0.1% 99.1%  
94 0.1% 99.0%  
95 0.1% 98.9%  
96 0.1% 98.8%  
97 0.1% 98.7%  
98 0.1% 98.6%  
99 0.2% 98%  
100 0.1% 98%  
101 0.3% 98%  
102 0.1% 98%  
103 0.2% 98%  
104 0.2% 98%  
105 0.3% 97%  
106 0.5% 97%  
107 0.4% 97%  
108 0.2% 96%  
109 0.3% 96%  
110 0.3% 96%  
111 0.4% 95%  
112 0.4% 95%  
113 0.3% 94%  
114 0.2% 94%  
115 0.4% 94%  
116 0.3% 94%  
117 0.4% 93%  
118 0.4% 93%  
119 0.4% 93%  
120 0.5% 92%  
121 0.2% 92%  
122 0.9% 91%  
123 0.4% 91%  
124 0.5% 90%  
125 0.7% 90%  
126 0.7% 89%  
127 0.3% 88%  
128 0.3% 88%  
129 0.7% 88%  
130 0.6% 87%  
131 0.5% 86%  
132 0.9% 86%  
133 1.5% 85%  
134 0.6% 83%  
135 0.6% 83%  
136 1.1% 82%  
137 0.8% 81%  
138 0.4% 80%  
139 1.0% 80%  
140 1.4% 79%  
141 0.8% 77%  
142 1.0% 77%  
143 1.3% 76%  
144 2% 74%  
145 0.7% 73%  
146 3% 72%  
147 2% 69%  
148 2% 67%  
149 2% 65%  
150 2% 63%  
151 0.8% 61%  
152 1.3% 60%  
153 3% 59%  
154 2% 56%  
155 2% 54%  
156 3% 52% Median
157 3% 49%  
158 3% 46%  
159 1.3% 42%  
160 2% 41%  
161 2% 39%  
162 1.1% 38%  
163 3% 37%  
164 2% 34%  
165 3% 32%  
166 3% 29%  
167 1.3% 26%  
168 1.0% 25%  
169 2% 24%  
170 0.7% 22%  
171 0.8% 22%  
172 0.6% 21%  
173 1.3% 20%  
174 0.8% 19%  
175 1.2% 18%  
176 1.2% 17%  
177 0.9% 16%  
178 1.5% 15%  
179 1.5% 13%  
180 0.8% 12%  
181 0.7% 11%  
182 1.1% 10%  
183 0.7% 9%  
184 0.7% 8%  
185 0.7% 8%  
186 1.3% 7%  
187 0.6% 6%  
188 0.4% 5%  
189 0.7% 5%  
190 0.2% 4%  
191 0.7% 4%  
192 0.3% 3%  
193 0.2% 3%  
194 0.5% 3%  
195 0.1% 2%  
196 0.3% 2%  
197 0.2% 2%  
198 0.1% 2%  
199 0.2% 2%  
200 0.3% 1.3%  
201 0.1% 1.0%  
202 0.1% 1.0%  
203 0.1% 0.9%  
204 0.2% 0.8%  
205 0.1% 0.6%  
206 0.1% 0.6%  
207 0.1% 0.5%  
208 0.1% 0.4%  
209 0% 0.4%  
210 0% 0.3%  
211 0% 0.3%  
212 0.1% 0.3%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 3% 99.7%  
8 0.2% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 5% 97%  
11 0.2% 92% Last Result
12 0.4% 92%  
13 0% 91%  
14 5% 91%  
15 7% 86%  
16 2% 80%  
17 10% 78%  
18 14% 68%  
19 5% 54% Median
20 10% 48%  
21 12% 38%  
22 8% 27%  
23 1.1% 19%  
24 2% 18%  
25 3% 16%  
26 3% 13%  
27 2% 10%  
28 1.2% 9%  
29 0.7% 7%  
30 0.7% 7%  
31 1.2% 6%  
32 1.5% 5%  
33 0.9% 3%  
34 0.8% 2%  
35 0.6% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.9%  
37 0.2% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.5%  
39 0% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 5% 98%  
3 90% 93% Median
4 2% 3%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.8%  
45 0.2% 99.7%  
46 0.3% 99.5%  
47 0.2% 99.3%  
48 0.4% 99.0% Last Result
49 0.1% 98.6%  
50 0.4% 98.5%  
51 0.2% 98%  
52 0.6% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 95%  
55 4% 93%  
56 5% 89%  
57 18% 84%  
58 66% 66% Median
59 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 4% 80%  
2 22% 76%  
3 48% 54% Median
4 5% 6%  
5 0.2% 0.5%  
6 0.1% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 2% 99.9%  
4 8% 98% Last Result
5 78% 90% Median
6 10% 13%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0.3%  
9 0% 0.3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 266 472 100% 446–503 439–515 433–522 420–538
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 265 469 100% 443–500 437–512 430–520 418–535
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 464 100% 438–495 431–507 425–514 413–530
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 254 450 100% 427–476 422–488 417–494 405–510
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 445 100% 421–471 417–484 412–489 399–505
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 217 411 100% 386–443 379–455 373–463 360–479
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 406 100% 380–438 374–450 367–458 355–474
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 206 392 100% 369–421 365–432 360–438 347–453
Labour Party 202 387 100% 364–416 359–427 354–433 342–448
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 417 219 0% 186–244 173–251 165–257 149–270
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 214 0% 181–239 168–245 160–252 144–264
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 175 0% 148–197 136–203 130–207 113–220
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 369 161 0% 129–187 116–193 109–199 94–212
Conservative Party 365 156 0% 124–182 111–188 104–194 89–207

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100% Last Result
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.8%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0% 99.7%  
417 0% 99.7%  
418 0% 99.7%  
419 0.1% 99.6%  
420 0.1% 99.6%  
421 0% 99.5%  
422 0% 99.4%  
423 0.2% 99.4%  
424 0.1% 99.2%  
425 0.1% 99.1%  
426 0.1% 99.0%  
427 0.2% 99.0%  
428 0.2% 98.8%  
429 0.1% 98.5%  
430 0.2% 98%  
431 0.1% 98%  
432 0.2% 98%  
433 0.4% 98%  
434 0.3% 97%  
435 0.2% 97%  
436 0.6% 97%  
437 0.4% 96%  
438 0.5% 96%  
439 0.4% 95%  
440 0.5% 95%  
441 1.0% 94%  
442 1.1% 94%  
443 0.5% 92%  
444 0.8% 92%  
445 1.0% 91%  
446 0.4% 90%  
447 0.6% 90%  
448 2% 89%  
449 0.8% 87%  
450 2% 86%  
451 0.8% 85%  
452 2% 84%  
453 0.5% 82%  
454 1.1% 82%  
455 0.6% 81%  
456 0.5% 80%  
457 1.2% 80%  
458 2% 78%  
459 1.3% 77%  
460 1.3% 76%  
461 2% 74%  
462 3% 72%  
463 3% 70%  
464 2% 67%  
465 1.2% 65%  
466 1.3% 63%  
467 2% 62%  
468 2% 61%  
469 2% 59%  
470 2% 57%  
471 3% 54%  
472 3% 51% Median
473 2% 48%  
474 3% 45%  
475 2% 43%  
476 0.9% 41%  
477 2% 40%  
478 2% 39%  
479 1.5% 36%  
480 2% 35%  
481 1.3% 33%  
482 2% 31%  
483 3% 29%  
484 1.2% 26%  
485 0.6% 25%  
486 0.8% 24%  
487 2% 23%  
488 1.1% 21%  
489 0.7% 20%  
490 1.1% 20%  
491 0.5% 18%  
492 1.1% 18%  
493 0.7% 17%  
494 1.4% 16%  
495 0.8% 15%  
496 0.3% 14%  
497 0.5% 14%  
498 0.8% 13%  
499 0.5% 12%  
500 1.0% 12%  
501 0.2% 11%  
502 0.6% 11%  
503 0.3% 10%  
504 0.7% 10%  
505 0.9% 9%  
506 0.4% 8%  
507 0.3% 8%  
508 0.3% 8%  
509 0.5% 7%  
510 0.2% 7%  
511 0.3% 7%  
512 0.3% 6%  
513 0.4% 6%  
514 0.3% 6%  
515 0.7% 5%  
516 0.2% 4%  
517 0.2% 4%  
518 0.1% 4%  
519 0.5% 4%  
520 0.2% 4%  
521 0.7% 3%  
522 0.2% 3%  
523 0.1% 2%  
524 0.3% 2%  
525 0.2% 2%  
526 0.1% 2%  
527 0.2% 2%  
528 0.1% 2%  
529 0.1% 1.5%  
530 0.1% 1.4%  
531 0.1% 1.3%  
532 0.2% 1.2%  
533 0.1% 1.0%  
534 0.1% 0.9%  
535 0.1% 0.8%  
536 0.2% 0.8%  
537 0% 0.5%  
538 0% 0.5%  
539 0.1% 0.5%  
540 0% 0.4%  
541 0% 0.4%  
542 0% 0.3%  
543 0% 0.3%  
544 0% 0.3%  
545 0% 0.3%  
546 0% 0.2%  
547 0% 0.2%  
548 0% 0.2%  
549 0% 0.2%  
550 0% 0.2%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100% Last Result
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.8%  
412 0% 99.8%  
413 0% 99.8%  
414 0% 99.7%  
415 0% 99.7%  
416 0.1% 99.6%  
417 0.1% 99.6%  
418 0.1% 99.5%  
419 0% 99.5%  
420 0.2% 99.4%  
421 0.1% 99.2%  
422 0.1% 99.1%  
423 0.1% 99.0%  
424 0.2% 99.0%  
425 0.2% 98.8%  
426 0.1% 98.6%  
427 0.2% 98%  
428 0.2% 98%  
429 0.3% 98%  
430 0.4% 98%  
431 0.3% 97%  
432 0.2% 97%  
433 0.6% 97%  
434 0.4% 96%  
435 0.5% 96%  
436 0.4% 95%  
437 0.4% 95%  
438 1.0% 95%  
439 1.1% 94%  
440 0.7% 93%  
441 0.8% 92%  
442 1.0% 91%  
443 0.5% 90%  
444 0.6% 90%  
445 2% 89%  
446 0.8% 87%  
447 2% 87%  
448 0.8% 85%  
449 2% 84%  
450 0.6% 82%  
451 1.2% 82%  
452 0.5% 81%  
453 0.5% 80%  
454 1.2% 80%  
455 2% 79%  
456 1.4% 77%  
457 1.3% 76%  
458 2% 74%  
459 3% 73%  
460 3% 70%  
461 2% 67%  
462 1.4% 65%  
463 1.3% 64%  
464 2% 62%  
465 2% 61%  
466 2% 59%  
467 2% 57%  
468 4% 55%  
469 3% 51% Median
470 2% 48%  
471 3% 46%  
472 2% 43%  
473 1.2% 42%  
474 1.5% 40%  
475 3% 39%  
476 1.5% 36%  
477 2% 35%  
478 1.4% 33%  
479 2% 31%  
480 3% 29%  
481 1.4% 26%  
482 0.7% 25%  
483 0.7% 24%  
484 2% 23%  
485 1.2% 22%  
486 0.9% 21%  
487 1.1% 20%  
488 0.6% 19%  
489 1.2% 18%  
490 0.6% 17%  
491 1.4% 16%  
492 0.8% 15%  
493 0.3% 14%  
494 0.5% 14%  
495 0.8% 13%  
496 0.4% 12%  
497 1.0% 12%  
498 0.2% 11%  
499 0.6% 11%  
500 0.2% 10%  
501 0.7% 10%  
502 0.8% 9%  
503 0.5% 8%  
504 0.3% 8%  
505 0.2% 8%  
506 0.5% 7%  
507 0.2% 7%  
508 0.3% 7%  
509 0.4% 6%  
510 0.4% 6%  
511 0.3% 6%  
512 0.7% 5%  
513 0.2% 5%  
514 0.2% 4%  
515 0.1% 4%  
516 0.5% 4%  
517 0.2% 4%  
518 0.6% 3%  
519 0.2% 3%  
520 0.1% 3%  
521 0.3% 2%  
522 0.2% 2%  
523 0.1% 2%  
524 0.2% 2%  
525 0.1% 2%  
526 0.1% 1.5%  
527 0.1% 1.4%  
528 0.2% 1.3%  
529 0.2% 1.2%  
530 0.1% 1.0%  
531 0% 0.9%  
532 0.1% 0.8%  
533 0.2% 0.8%  
534 0% 0.5%  
535 0% 0.5%  
536 0% 0.5%  
537 0% 0.4%  
538 0% 0.4%  
539 0% 0.3%  
540 0% 0.3%  
541 0% 0.3%  
542 0% 0.3%  
543 0% 0.2%  
544 0% 0.2%  
545 0% 0.2%  
546 0% 0.2%  
547 0% 0.2%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.8%  
406 0% 99.8%  
407 0% 99.8%  
408 0% 99.7%  
409 0.1% 99.7%  
410 0% 99.7%  
411 0.1% 99.6%  
412 0.1% 99.6%  
413 0.1% 99.5%  
414 0% 99.4%  
415 0.2% 99.4%  
416 0.1% 99.2%  
417 0.1% 99.1%  
418 0.1% 99.0%  
419 0.3% 99.0%  
420 0.2% 98.7%  
421 0.1% 98.5%  
422 0.2% 98%  
423 0.2% 98%  
424 0.2% 98%  
425 0.5% 98%  
426 0.2% 97%  
427 0.3% 97%  
428 0.5% 97%  
429 0.5% 96%  
430 0.5% 96%  
431 0.5% 95%  
432 0.4% 95%  
433 0.9% 94%  
434 1.1% 94%  
435 0.7% 92%  
436 0.8% 92%  
437 0.9% 91%  
438 0.6% 90%  
439 0.7% 89%  
440 1.3% 89%  
441 1.1% 87%  
442 2% 86%  
443 1.0% 85%  
444 1.2% 84%  
445 0.6% 82%  
446 1.2% 82%  
447 0.5% 81%  
448 0.5% 80%  
449 1.2% 80%  
450 2% 78%  
451 1.1% 77%  
452 2% 76%  
453 2% 74%  
454 2% 72%  
455 3% 70%  
456 3% 67%  
457 1.2% 65%  
458 1.5% 63%  
459 1.2% 62%  
460 1.4% 61%  
461 2% 59%  
462 2% 57%  
463 4% 55%  
464 4% 51% Median
465 2% 48%  
466 2% 45%  
467 1.5% 43%  
468 1.2% 42%  
469 1.5% 40%  
470 3% 39%  
471 1.2% 36%  
472 2% 35%  
473 1.0% 33%  
474 3% 32%  
475 3% 29%  
476 1.5% 26%  
477 0.4% 25%  
478 0.9% 24%  
479 2% 23%  
480 1.1% 22%  
481 0.9% 21%  
482 1.2% 20%  
483 0.4% 18%  
484 1.1% 18%  
485 0.8% 17%  
486 1.5% 16%  
487 0.7% 15%  
488 0.5% 14%  
489 0.4% 14%  
490 0.9% 13%  
491 0.3% 12%  
492 1.0% 12%  
493 0.3% 11%  
494 0.5% 11%  
495 0.5% 10%  
496 0.6% 10%  
497 0.8% 9%  
498 0.5% 8%  
499 0.3% 8%  
500 0.3% 8%  
501 0.4% 7%  
502 0.1% 7%  
503 0.4% 7%  
504 0.4% 6%  
505 0.4% 6%  
506 0.4% 6%  
507 0.6% 5%  
508 0.2% 5%  
509 0.1% 4%  
510 0.2% 4%  
511 0.5% 4%  
512 0.2% 4%  
513 0.6% 3%  
514 0.2% 3%  
515 0.1% 2%  
516 0.3% 2%  
517 0.2% 2%  
518 0.2% 2%  
519 0.2% 2%  
520 0.1% 2%  
521 0.1% 1.5%  
522 0.1% 1.4%  
523 0.1% 1.3%  
524 0.1% 1.2%  
525 0.1% 1.0%  
526 0.1% 0.9%  
527 0% 0.8%  
528 0.2% 0.8%  
529 0% 0.5%  
530 0% 0.5%  
531 0% 0.5%  
532 0% 0.4%  
533 0% 0.4%  
534 0% 0.3%  
535 0% 0.3%  
536 0% 0.3%  
537 0% 0.3%  
538 0% 0.2%  
539 0% 0.2%  
540 0% 0.2%  
541 0% 0.2%  
542 0% 0.2%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100% Last Result
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.8%  
400 0% 99.8%  
401 0.1% 99.7%  
402 0% 99.7%  
403 0% 99.6%  
404 0.1% 99.6%  
405 0% 99.5%  
406 0.1% 99.5%  
407 0.1% 99.4%  
408 0.1% 99.3%  
409 0.2% 99.2%  
410 0.4% 99.0%  
411 0.1% 98.7%  
412 0.1% 98.6%  
413 0.1% 98%  
414 0.2% 98%  
415 0.2% 98%  
416 0.2% 98%  
417 0.4% 98%  
418 0.5% 97%  
419 0.7% 97%  
420 0.4% 96%  
421 0.8% 96%  
422 0.5% 95%  
423 2% 95%  
424 0.8% 93%  
425 0.9% 92%  
426 1.0% 91%  
427 1.0% 90%  
428 2% 89%  
429 2% 88%  
430 0.7% 86%  
431 1.4% 85%  
432 1.5% 84%  
433 0.5% 82%  
434 1.1% 82%  
435 0.7% 81%  
436 0.4% 80%  
437 1.1% 80%  
438 1.3% 79%  
439 4% 77%  
440 0.4% 73%  
441 3% 73%  
442 3% 69%  
443 0.9% 66%  
444 2% 65%  
445 2% 63%  
446 2% 61%  
447 2% 59%  
448 2% 57%  
449 4% 55%  
450 6% 50% Median
451 2% 45%  
452 2% 42%  
453 2% 40%  
454 1.4% 39%  
455 3% 37%  
456 2% 35%  
457 3% 33%  
458 2% 30%  
459 2% 29%  
460 2% 27%  
461 2% 25%  
462 2% 23%  
463 0.7% 21%  
464 1.1% 21%  
465 0.9% 19%  
466 0.6% 19%  
467 0.7% 18%  
468 0.9% 17%  
469 2% 16%  
470 0.7% 15%  
471 2% 14%  
472 0.4% 12%  
473 0.5% 12%  
474 0.2% 11%  
475 0.5% 11%  
476 0.3% 10%  
477 0.2% 10%  
478 0.2% 10%  
479 0.4% 10%  
480 0.3% 9%  
481 0.7% 9%  
482 0.4% 8%  
483 0.6% 8%  
484 0.4% 7%  
485 0.6% 7%  
486 0.5% 6%  
487 0.3% 6%  
488 0.4% 5%  
489 0.3% 5%  
490 0.5% 5%  
491 0.7% 4%  
492 0.6% 4%  
493 0.3% 3%  
494 0.2% 3%  
495 0.1% 2%  
496 0.3% 2%  
497 0.1% 2%  
498 0.2% 2%  
499 0.2% 2%  
500 0.2% 1.4%  
501 0.1% 1.2%  
502 0.2% 1.1%  
503 0.1% 0.9%  
504 0% 0.8%  
505 0.1% 0.7%  
506 0% 0.6%  
507 0% 0.6%  
508 0% 0.6%  
509 0% 0.5%  
510 0.1% 0.5%  
511 0% 0.4%  
512 0% 0.4%  
513 0% 0.3%  
514 0.1% 0.3%  
515 0% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.2%  
517 0% 0.2%  
518 0% 0.2%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.8%  
395 0% 99.8%  
396 0.1% 99.7%  
397 0% 99.7%  
398 0.1% 99.6%  
399 0.1% 99.6%  
400 0% 99.5%  
401 0.1% 99.4%  
402 0.1% 99.4%  
403 0.1% 99.2%  
404 0.2% 99.2%  
405 0.3% 99.0%  
406 0.1% 98.6%  
407 0.1% 98.6%  
408 0.1% 98%  
409 0.2% 98%  
410 0.2% 98%  
411 0.2% 98%  
412 0.4% 98%  
413 0.4% 97%  
414 0.8% 97%  
415 0.4% 96%  
416 0.7% 96%  
417 0.6% 95%  
418 2% 94%  
419 0.6% 93%  
420 1.0% 92%  
421 1.1% 91%  
422 0.9% 90%  
423 1.5% 89%  
424 2% 88%  
425 0.8% 86%  
426 1.4% 85%  
427 1.3% 84%  
428 0.5% 82%  
429 1.1% 82%  
430 0.6% 81%  
431 0.5% 80%  
432 1.0% 80%  
433 2% 79%  
434 3% 77%  
435 1.4% 74%  
436 3% 72%  
437 3% 69%  
438 1.4% 67%  
439 2% 65%  
440 2% 63%  
441 2% 61%  
442 3% 59%  
443 3% 57%  
444 4% 54%  
445 6% 50% Median
446 2% 44%  
447 2% 42%  
448 2% 41%  
449 1.4% 39%  
450 3% 37%  
451 1.3% 35%  
452 3% 33%  
453 1.4% 30%  
454 2% 29%  
455 2% 27%  
456 2% 25%  
457 2% 23%  
458 0.8% 21%  
459 1.1% 20%  
460 0.8% 19%  
461 0.7% 19%  
462 0.6% 18%  
463 1.0% 17%  
464 2% 16%  
465 0.9% 15%  
466 2% 14%  
467 0.5% 12%  
468 0.5% 12%  
469 0.2% 11%  
470 0.3% 11%  
471 0.5% 10%  
472 0.1% 10%  
473 0.3% 10%  
474 0.3% 10%  
475 0.3% 9%  
476 0.7% 9%  
477 0.4% 8%  
478 0.6% 8%  
479 0.4% 7%  
480 0.5% 7%  
481 0.4% 6%  
482 0.4% 6%  
483 0.4% 5%  
484 0.4% 5%  
485 0.4% 5%  
486 0.8% 4%  
487 0.7% 4%  
488 0.3% 3%  
489 0.3% 3%  
490 0.1% 2%  
491 0.3% 2%  
492 0.1% 2%  
493 0.2% 2%  
494 0.2% 2%  
495 0.2% 1.4%  
496 0.1% 1.2%  
497 0.1% 1.1%  
498 0.1% 1.0%  
499 0.1% 0.8%  
500 0.1% 0.7%  
501 0% 0.6%  
502 0% 0.6%  
503 0% 0.6%  
504 0% 0.5%  
505 0.1% 0.5%  
506 0% 0.4%  
507 0% 0.4%  
508 0% 0.3%  
509 0% 0.3%  
510 0% 0.2%  
511 0% 0.2%  
512 0% 0.2%  
513 0% 0.2%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100% Last Result
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0% 99.8%  
356 0% 99.7%  
357 0% 99.7%  
358 0.1% 99.6%  
359 0.1% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.5%  
361 0% 99.5%  
362 0.1% 99.4%  
363 0.1% 99.3%  
364 0.1% 99.2%  
365 0% 99.1%  
366 0.2% 99.0%  
367 0.2% 98.8%  
368 0.1% 98.6%  
369 0.2% 98%  
370 0.2% 98%  
371 0.2% 98%  
372 0.5% 98%  
373 0.2% 98%  
374 0.2% 97%  
375 0.7% 97%  
376 0.4% 96%  
377 0.4% 96%  
378 0.4% 96%  
379 0.4% 95%  
380 1.0% 95%  
381 0.9% 94%  
382 0.6% 93%  
383 0.7% 92%  
384 1.0% 92%  
385 0.5% 91%  
386 0.6% 90%  
387 1.4% 89%  
388 0.9% 88%  
389 2% 87%  
390 1.0% 86%  
391 2% 85%  
392 0.5% 83%  
393 1.0% 83%  
394 0.9% 82%  
395 0.5% 81%  
396 1.0% 80%  
397 1.3% 79%  
398 1.3% 78%  
399 1.5% 77%  
400 2% 75%  
401 2% 73%  
402 3% 71%  
403 3% 68%  
404 0.7% 66%  
405 2% 65%  
406 1.3% 63%  
407 2% 62%  
408 2% 60%  
409 2% 59%  
410 3% 56%  
411 3% 53% Median
412 2% 50%  
413 3% 48%  
414 2% 45%  
415 1.2% 43%  
416 1.1% 42%  
417 3% 41%  
418 1.3% 38%  
419 2% 37%  
420 2% 35%  
421 2% 33%  
422 2% 31%  
423 2% 28%  
424 0.8% 27%  
425 1.1% 26%  
426 2% 25%  
427 1.0% 23%  
428 0.9% 22%  
429 1.0% 21%  
430 0.8% 20%  
431 1.0% 19%  
432 0.7% 18%  
433 1.0% 17%  
434 0.3% 16%  
435 1.4% 16%  
436 0.6% 15%  
437 0.4% 14%  
438 0.4% 14%  
439 1.4% 13%  
440 0.5% 12%  
441 0.7% 11%  
442 0.2% 11%  
443 0.6% 10%  
444 0.8% 10%  
445 0.6% 9%  
446 0.4% 8%  
447 0.3% 8%  
448 0.5% 8%  
449 0.1% 7%  
450 0.3% 7%  
451 0.3% 7%  
452 0.4% 6%  
453 0.3% 6%  
454 0.5% 6%  
455 0.4% 5%  
456 0.3% 5%  
457 0.1% 5%  
458 0.4% 4%  
459 0.2% 4%  
460 0.4% 4%  
461 0.4% 3%  
462 0.3% 3%  
463 0.2% 3%  
464 0.2% 2%  
465 0.2% 2%  
466 0.2% 2%  
467 0.2% 2%  
468 0% 2%  
469 0.1% 2%  
470 0.1% 1.5%  
471 0.2% 1.4%  
472 0.1% 1.2%  
473 0% 1.1%  
474 0.1% 1.0%  
475 0.2% 0.9%  
476 0.1% 0.7%  
477 0.1% 0.6%  
478 0.1% 0.6%  
479 0% 0.5%  
480 0% 0.5%  
481 0% 0.4%  
482 0% 0.4%  
483 0% 0.4%  
484 0% 0.3%  
485 0% 0.3%  
486 0% 0.3%  
487 0% 0.3%  
488 0% 0.2%  
489 0% 0.2%  
490 0% 0.2%  
491 0% 0.2%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0% 99.7%  
352 0% 99.7%  
353 0% 99.6%  
354 0.1% 99.6%  
355 0.1% 99.5%  
356 0% 99.4%  
357 0.2% 99.4%  
358 0.1% 99.3%  
359 0.1% 99.2%  
360 0.1% 99.1%  
361 0.3% 99.0%  
362 0.1% 98.7%  
363 0.2% 98.6%  
364 0.1% 98%  
365 0.2% 98%  
366 0.2% 98%  
367 0.5% 98%  
368 0.2% 97%  
369 0.2% 97%  
370 0.6% 97%  
371 0.4% 96%  
372 0.4% 96%  
373 0.5% 96%  
374 0.4% 95%  
375 0.9% 95%  
376 1.0% 94%  
377 0.7% 93%  
378 0.7% 92%  
379 0.8% 91%  
380 0.7% 91%  
381 0.7% 90%  
382 1.0% 89%  
383 1.2% 88%  
384 2% 87%  
385 0.9% 85%  
386 1.2% 84%  
387 0.6% 83%  
388 0.8% 82%  
389 1.0% 82%  
390 0.4% 81%  
391 1.0% 80%  
392 1.5% 79%  
393 1.1% 78%  
394 1.3% 77%  
395 3% 75%  
396 2% 73%  
397 3% 71%  
398 3% 68%  
399 0.4% 65%  
400 2% 65%  
401 0.9% 63%  
402 2% 62%  
403 2% 60%  
404 3% 59%  
405 3% 56%  
406 3% 53% Median
407 3% 50%  
408 2% 47%  
409 2% 45%  
410 1.2% 43%  
411 1.1% 42%  
412 3% 41%  
413 1.3% 38%  
414 2% 36%  
415 1.3% 35%  
416 3% 33%  
417 2% 30%  
418 2% 28%  
419 0.5% 26%  
420 1.4% 26%  
421 2% 24%  
422 0.7% 22%  
423 1.0% 22%  
424 1.1% 21%  
425 0.7% 20%  
426 0.9% 19%  
427 0.6% 18%  
428 1.2% 17%  
429 0.4% 16%  
430 1.3% 16%  
431 0.5% 15%  
432 0.4% 14%  
433 0.5% 14%  
434 1.4% 13%  
435 0.5% 12%  
436 0.6% 11%  
437 0.4% 11%  
438 0.7% 10%  
439 0.7% 10%  
440 0.6% 9%  
441 0.4% 8%  
442 0.4% 8%  
443 0.4% 7%  
444 0.1% 7%  
445 0.2% 7%  
446 0.4% 7%  
447 0.4% 6%  
448 0.3% 6%  
449 0.5% 6%  
450 0.3% 5%  
451 0.3% 5%  
452 0.1% 5%  
453 0.4% 4%  
454 0.2% 4%  
455 0.4% 4%  
456 0.4% 3%  
457 0.3% 3%  
458 0.2% 3%  
459 0.2% 2%  
460 0.2% 2%  
461 0.2% 2%  
462 0.2% 2%  
463 0.1% 2%  
464 0.1% 2%  
465 0.1% 1.5%  
466 0.2% 1.4%  
467 0.1% 1.2%  
468 0.1% 1.1%  
469 0.1% 1.0%  
470 0.2% 1.0%  
471 0.1% 0.8%  
472 0.1% 0.6%  
473 0.1% 0.6%  
474 0% 0.5%  
475 0% 0.5%  
476 0% 0.4%  
477 0% 0.4%  
478 0% 0.4%  
479 0% 0.3%  
480 0% 0.3%  
481 0% 0.3%  
482 0% 0.3%  
483 0% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.2%  
485 0% 0.2%  
486 0% 0.2%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100% Last Result
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0% 99.7%  
345 0% 99.6%  
346 0.1% 99.6%  
347 0% 99.5%  
348 0.1% 99.5%  
349 0.1% 99.4%  
350 0.1% 99.3%  
351 0.2% 99.2%  
352 0.3% 99.1%  
353 0.1% 98.7%  
354 0.1% 98.6%  
355 0.1% 98.5%  
356 0.2% 98%  
357 0.1% 98%  
358 0.2% 98%  
359 0.3% 98%  
360 0.4% 98%  
361 0.6% 97%  
362 0.4% 97%  
363 0.5% 96%  
364 0.5% 96%  
365 2% 95%  
366 0.8% 93%  
367 0.6% 93%  
368 1.1% 92%  
369 1.1% 91%  
370 1.5% 90%  
371 2% 88%  
372 0.7% 86%  
373 1.4% 86%  
374 1.2% 84%  
375 0.7% 83%  
376 1.1% 83%  
377 0.8% 81%  
378 0.5% 81%  
379 1.2% 80%  
380 1.3% 79%  
381 4% 78%  
382 0.8% 74%  
383 2% 73%  
384 3% 71%  
385 2% 68%  
386 2% 66%  
387 1.3% 64%  
388 2% 63%  
389 2% 61%  
390 2% 58%  
391 2% 56%  
392 6% 54% Median
393 3% 48%  
394 2% 45%  
395 2% 43%  
396 2% 41%  
397 2% 39%  
398 2% 37%  
399 3% 35%  
400 2% 32%  
401 2% 30%  
402 2% 28%  
403 2% 27%  
404 1.1% 24%  
405 1.3% 23%  
406 0.8% 22%  
407 1.2% 21%  
408 0.9% 20%  
409 0.9% 19%  
410 0.9% 18%  
411 1.1% 17%  
412 1.2% 16%  
413 0.9% 15%  
414 0.7% 14%  
415 1.1% 13%  
416 0.3% 12%  
417 0.7% 12%  
418 0.2% 11%  
419 0.2% 11%  
420 0.5% 11%  
421 0.6% 10%  
422 0.3% 10%  
423 0.8% 9%  
424 0.4% 8%  
425 0.5% 8%  
426 0.4% 8%  
427 0.5% 7%  
428 0.3% 7%  
429 0.6% 6%  
430 0.3% 6%  
431 0.2% 6%  
432 0.4% 5%  
433 0.8% 5%  
434 0.7% 4%  
435 0.4% 3%  
436 0.1% 3%  
437 0.3% 3%  
438 0.3% 3%  
439 0.1% 2%  
440 0.2% 2%  
441 0.2% 2%  
442 0.3% 2%  
443 0.1% 2%  
444 0.2% 1.4%  
445 0.2% 1.2%  
446 0.1% 1.0%  
447 0.1% 0.9%  
448 0.2% 0.8%  
449 0% 0.7%  
450 0% 0.7%  
451 0% 0.6%  
452 0% 0.6%  
453 0.1% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.5%  
455 0.1% 0.4%  
456 0% 0.4%  
457 0.1% 0.3%  
458 0% 0.3%  
459 0% 0.3%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0% 99.5%  
343 0.1% 99.5%  
344 0.1% 99.4%  
345 0.1% 99.3%  
346 0.2% 99.2%  
347 0.3% 99.0%  
348 0.1% 98.7%  
349 0.1% 98.6%  
350 0.1% 98.5%  
351 0.2% 98%  
352 0.1% 98%  
353 0.2% 98%  
354 0.4% 98%  
355 0.4% 97%  
356 0.6% 97%  
357 0.5% 96%  
358 0.5% 96%  
359 0.6% 95%  
360 2% 95%  
361 0.6% 93%  
362 0.7% 92%  
363 1.2% 92%  
364 1.0% 91%  
365 1.4% 90%  
366 2% 88%  
367 0.7% 86%  
368 1.4% 86%  
369 1.1% 84%  
370 0.8% 83%  
371 0.9% 82%  
372 0.7% 81%  
373 0.6% 81%  
374 1.0% 80%  
375 2% 79%  
376 3% 77%  
377 2% 75%  
378 2% 73%  
379 3% 71%  
380 2% 68%  
381 2% 66%  
382 1.5% 64%  
383 2% 63%  
384 2% 61%  
385 3% 59%  
386 2% 56%  
387 6% 53% Median
388 3% 48%  
389 2% 45%  
390 2% 43%  
391 2% 41%  
392 3% 39%  
393 1.0% 37%  
394 4% 36%  
395 2% 32%  
396 2% 30%  
397 2% 28%  
398 2% 26%  
399 1.3% 24%  
400 1.5% 23%  
401 0.5% 22%  
402 1.2% 21%  
403 1.0% 20%  
404 0.7% 19%  
405 0.9% 18%  
406 1.1% 17%  
407 1.1% 16%  
408 1.1% 15%  
409 0.4% 14%  
410 1.4% 13%  
411 0.4% 12%  
412 0.5% 12%  
413 0.2% 11%  
414 0.2% 11%  
415 0.5% 11%  
416 0.3% 10%  
417 0.5% 10%  
418 0.8% 9%  
419 0.4% 8%  
420 0.5% 8%  
421 0.5% 8%  
422 0.4% 7%  
423 0.2% 7%  
424 0.6% 6%  
425 0.3% 6%  
426 0.3% 6%  
427 0.4% 5%  
428 0.8% 5%  
429 0.7% 4%  
430 0.5% 3%  
431 0.1% 3%  
432 0.3% 3%  
433 0.3% 3%  
434 0.1% 2%  
435 0.2% 2%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.1% 2%  
439 0.2% 1.4%  
440 0.2% 1.2%  
441 0.1% 1.0%  
442 0.1% 0.9%  
443 0.1% 0.8%  
444 0% 0.7%  
445 0% 0.7%  
446 0% 0.6%  
447 0% 0.6%  
448 0.1% 0.5%  
449 0.1% 0.5%  
450 0.1% 0.4%  
451 0% 0.4%  
452 0.1% 0.3%  
453 0% 0.3%  
454 0% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.8%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0% 99.8%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0% 99.7%  
144 0% 99.7%  
145 0% 99.7%  
146 0% 99.6%  
147 0.1% 99.6%  
148 0% 99.6%  
149 0% 99.5%  
150 0% 99.5%  
151 0.1% 99.4%  
152 0.1% 99.4%  
153 0.2% 99.3%  
154 0.1% 99.1%  
155 0.1% 99.0%  
156 0.1% 98.9%  
157 0.1% 98.8%  
158 0.1% 98.7%  
159 0.1% 98.6%  
160 0.1% 98%  
161 0.1% 98%  
162 0.1% 98%  
163 0.2% 98%  
164 0.3% 98%  
165 0.2% 98%  
166 0.3% 97%  
167 0.3% 97%  
168 0.3% 97%  
169 0.6% 97%  
170 0.2% 96%  
171 0.2% 96%  
172 0.2% 96%  
173 0.4% 95%  
174 0.4% 95%  
175 0.4% 94%  
176 0.4% 94%  
177 0.4% 94%  
178 0.2% 93%  
179 0.4% 93%  
180 0.2% 93%  
181 0.4% 93%  
182 0.4% 92%  
183 0.3% 92%  
184 0.3% 91%  
185 0.8% 91%  
186 0.5% 90%  
187 0.5% 90%  
188 0.9% 89%  
189 0.6% 88%  
190 0.7% 88%  
191 0.5% 87%  
192 1.0% 87%  
193 0.6% 86%  
194 2% 85%  
195 0.7% 84%  
196 0.3% 83%  
197 0.6% 83%  
198 0.7% 82%  
199 1.0% 81%  
200 0.9% 80%  
201 0.7% 79%  
202 0.8% 79%  
203 2% 78%  
204 1.1% 76%  
205 1.2% 75%  
206 2% 74%  
207 1.4% 72%  
208 0.5% 71%  
209 3% 70%  
210 2% 67%  
211 3% 66%  
212 1.2% 63%  
213 2% 62%  
214 0.7% 59%  
215 2% 59%  
216 2% 57%  
217 2% 54%  
218 2% 53%  
219 4% 50% Median
220 3% 46%  
221 2% 43%  
222 1.1% 41%  
223 1.5% 40%  
224 1.3% 38%  
225 1.2% 37%  
226 2% 36%  
227 3% 33%  
228 2% 30%  
229 3% 28%  
230 1.2% 26%  
231 2% 24%  
232 1.3% 23%  
233 0.4% 21%  
234 0.8% 21%  
235 1.2% 20%  
236 0.7% 19%  
237 0.9% 18%  
238 1.2% 18%  
239 1.0% 16%  
240 1.1% 15%  
241 2% 14%  
242 1.3% 13%  
243 0.8% 11%  
244 0.6% 10%  
245 1.1% 10%  
246 0.7% 9%  
247 0.6% 8%  
248 0.6% 8%  
249 1.2% 7%  
250 0.6% 6%  
251 0.4% 5%  
252 0.7% 5%  
253 0.2% 4%  
254 0.7% 4%  
255 0.3% 3%  
256 0.2% 3%  
257 0.3% 3%  
258 0.3% 2%  
259 0.2% 2%  
260 0.2% 2%  
261 0.1% 2%  
262 0.2% 2%  
263 0.3% 1.3%  
264 0.1% 1.1%  
265 0.1% 1.0%  
266 0.1% 0.9%  
267 0.1% 0.8%  
268 0% 0.6%  
269 0.1% 0.6%  
270 0.1% 0.5%  
271 0.1% 0.4%  
272 0% 0.4%  
273 0% 0.3%  
274 0% 0.3%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.8%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0% 99.8%  
137 0% 99.8%  
138 0% 99.7%  
139 0% 99.7%  
140 0% 99.7%  
141 0% 99.6%  
142 0% 99.6%  
143 0% 99.6%  
144 0% 99.5%  
145 0% 99.5%  
146 0.1% 99.4%  
147 0.1% 99.4%  
148 0.2% 99.3%  
149 0.1% 99.1%  
150 0.1% 99.0%  
151 0.1% 98.9%  
152 0.1% 98.8%  
153 0.1% 98.7%  
154 0.1% 98.6%  
155 0.1% 98%  
156 0.1% 98%  
157 0.1% 98%  
158 0.2% 98%  
159 0.2% 98%  
160 0.2% 98%  
161 0.3% 97%  
162 0.3% 97%  
163 0.3% 97%  
164 0.6% 97%  
165 0.1% 96%  
166 0.2% 96%  
167 0.2% 96%  
168 0.5% 95%  
169 0.3% 95%  
170 0.4% 94%  
171 0.3% 94%  
172 0.4% 94%  
173 0.3% 93%  
174 0.3% 93%  
175 0.3% 93%  
176 0.3% 92%  
177 0.5% 92%  
178 0.3% 92%  
179 0.5% 91%  
180 0.7% 91%  
181 0.5% 90%  
182 0.5% 90%  
183 1.0% 89%  
184 0.4% 88%  
185 0.6% 88%  
186 0.7% 87%  
187 0.8% 87%  
188 0.5% 86%  
189 2% 85%  
190 0.4% 84%  
191 0.7% 83%  
192 0.6% 83%  
193 0.6% 82%  
194 1.0% 81%  
195 0.8% 80%  
196 0.5% 79%  
197 1.0% 79%  
198 2% 78%  
199 1.2% 76%  
200 1.2% 75%  
201 1.5% 74%  
202 1.1% 72%  
203 0.6% 71%  
204 3% 71%  
205 2% 67%  
206 2% 65%  
207 2% 63%  
208 2% 61%  
209 0.8% 60%  
210 2% 59%  
211 3% 57%  
212 2% 54%  
213 2% 52%  
214 4% 50% Median
215 3% 46%  
216 2% 43%  
217 2% 41%  
218 2% 40%  
219 1.2% 38%  
220 1.3% 37%  
221 2% 35%  
222 3% 33%  
223 2% 30%  
224 3% 28%  
225 0.9% 25%  
226 2% 24%  
227 1.1% 23%  
228 0.6% 22%  
229 0.7% 21%  
230 1.2% 20%  
231 0.8% 19%  
232 0.9% 18%  
233 1.3% 17%  
234 1.0% 16%  
235 0.9% 15%  
236 2% 14%  
237 1.3% 13%  
238 0.8% 11%  
239 0.7% 10%  
240 1.2% 10%  
241 0.5% 9%  
242 0.7% 8%  
243 0.5% 7%  
244 1.3% 7%  
245 0.6% 6%  
246 0.4% 5%  
247 0.7% 5%  
248 0.2% 4%  
249 0.7% 4%  
250 0.2% 3%  
251 0.2% 3%  
252 0.4% 3%  
253 0.2% 2%  
254 0.2% 2%  
255 0.2% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0.3% 1.5%  
258 0.2% 1.2%  
259 0% 1.0%  
260 0.1% 1.0%  
261 0.1% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.7%  
263 0.1% 0.6%  
264 0% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.5%  
266 0.1% 0.4%  
267 0% 0.4%  
268 0% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.3%  
270 0.1% 0.3%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.8%  
107 0% 99.8%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0% 99.7%  
111 0% 99.7%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0% 99.5%  
114 0% 99.5%  
115 0% 99.5%  
116 0% 99.4%  
117 0% 99.4%  
118 0% 99.4%  
119 0% 99.4%  
120 0.1% 99.3%  
121 0.2% 99.2%  
122 0.1% 99.0%  
123 0.2% 98.9%  
124 0.3% 98.7%  
125 0.1% 98%  
126 0.3% 98%  
127 0.2% 98%  
128 0.1% 98%  
129 0% 98%  
130 0.6% 98%  
131 0.6% 97%  
132 0.7% 96%  
133 0.3% 96%  
134 0.2% 95%  
135 0.2% 95%  
136 0.4% 95%  
137 0.8% 95%  
138 0.3% 94%  
139 0.6% 94%  
140 0.4% 93%  
141 0.3% 93%  
142 0.3% 92%  
143 0.9% 92%  
144 0.6% 91%  
145 0.3% 90%  
146 0.1% 90%  
147 0% 90%  
148 0.2% 90%  
149 0.1% 90%  
150 0.2% 90%  
151 0.9% 89%  
152 1.3% 89%  
153 3% 87%  
154 0.7% 85%  
155 0.3% 84%  
156 0.2% 84%  
157 0.5% 83%  
158 1.0% 83%  
159 1.2% 82%  
160 1.0% 81%  
161 1.3% 80%  
162 1.3% 78%  
163 0.5% 77%  
164 0.5% 77%  
165 0.5% 76%  
166 2% 76%  
167 4% 73%  
168 3% 69%  
169 2% 66%  
170 1.4% 64%  
171 2% 62%  
172 0.3% 61%  
173 2% 60%  
174 7% 58%  
175 5% 52% Median
176 0.4% 47%  
177 2% 46%  
178 3% 44%  
179 3% 41%  
180 3% 38%  
181 1.1% 36%  
182 0.3% 35%  
183 7% 34%  
184 0.3% 27%  
185 4% 27%  
186 1.4% 23%  
187 0.5% 21%  
188 0.2% 21%  
189 0.6% 21%  
190 1.4% 20%  
191 0.7% 19%  
192 2% 18%  
193 0.4% 17%  
194 1.1% 16%  
195 0.3% 15%  
196 3% 15%  
197 2% 12%  
198 0.7% 10%  
199 1.1% 9%  
200 0.7% 8%  
201 2% 7%  
202 0.4% 6%  
203 0.5% 5%  
204 0.4% 5%  
205 0.4% 4%  
206 1.2% 4%  
207 0.4% 3%  
208 0.2% 2%  
209 0% 2%  
210 0.3% 2%  
211 0% 2%  
212 0% 2%  
213 0.1% 1.5%  
214 0.3% 1.4%  
215 0.1% 1.0%  
216 0.2% 0.9%  
217 0.1% 0.7%  
218 0.1% 0.6%  
219 0.1% 0.6%  
220 0% 0.5%  
221 0% 0.5%  
222 0.1% 0.4%  
223 0.1% 0.4%  
224 0.1% 0.3%  
225 0% 0.2%  
226 0.1% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.8%  
84 0% 99.8%  
85 0% 99.8%  
86 0% 99.8%  
87 0% 99.7%  
88 0% 99.7%  
89 0% 99.7%  
90 0% 99.7%  
91 0% 99.6%  
92 0% 99.6%  
93 0% 99.5%  
94 0.1% 99.5%  
95 0.1% 99.4%  
96 0.1% 99.3%  
97 0.1% 99.2%  
98 0.1% 99.1%  
99 0.1% 99.0%  
100 0.2% 98.9%  
101 0.1% 98.7%  
102 0.1% 98.7%  
103 0.1% 98.6%  
104 0.2% 98%  
105 0.2% 98%  
106 0.3% 98%  
107 0.1% 98%  
108 0.2% 98%  
109 0.3% 98%  
110 0.3% 97%  
111 0.5% 97%  
112 0.5% 97%  
113 0.1% 96%  
114 0.3% 96%  
115 0.3% 96%  
116 0.4% 95%  
117 0.5% 95%  
118 0.3% 94%  
119 0.3% 94%  
120 0.3% 94%  
121 0.2% 94%  
122 0.3% 93%  
123 0.4% 93%  
124 0.3% 93%  
125 0.5% 92%  
126 0.2% 92%  
127 0.8% 91%  
128 0.5% 91%  
129 0.4% 90%  
130 0.9% 90%  
131 0.4% 89%  
132 0.5% 88%  
133 0.2% 88%  
134 0.7% 88%  
135 0.7% 87%  
136 0.5% 86%  
137 0.9% 86%  
138 2% 85%  
139 0.4% 83%  
140 0.4% 83%  
141 1.1% 82%  
142 1.0% 81%  
143 0.3% 80%  
144 1.1% 80%  
145 1.4% 79%  
146 0.7% 78%  
147 0.9% 77%  
148 2% 76%  
149 2% 74%  
150 0.4% 72%  
151 3% 72%  
152 2% 69%  
153 2% 67%  
154 1.4% 65%  
155 3% 64%  
156 0.8% 61%  
157 1.4% 60%  
158 2% 59%  
159 2% 56%  
160 2% 54%  
161 3% 52% Median
162 3% 49%  
163 3% 45%  
164 2% 42%  
165 0.9% 41%  
166 2% 40%  
167 1.1% 38%  
168 3% 37%  
169 2% 34%  
170 3% 32%  
171 3% 29%  
172 1.4% 26%  
173 1.0% 25%  
174 2% 24%  
175 0.7% 22%  
176 0.7% 21%  
177 0.7% 21%  
178 1.1% 20%  
179 0.8% 19%  
180 1.0% 18%  
181 1.3% 17%  
182 1.0% 16%  
183 2% 15%  
184 2% 13%  
185 0.8% 12%  
186 0.5% 11%  
187 1.0% 11%  
188 1.0% 10%  
189 0.6% 9%  
190 0.8% 8%  
191 1.2% 7%  
192 0.6% 6%  
193 0.4% 5%  
194 0.8% 5%  
195 0.3% 4%  
196 0.7% 4%  
197 0.3% 3%  
198 0.3% 3%  
199 0.4% 3%  
200 0.2% 2%  
201 0.2% 2%  
202 0.2% 2%  
203 0.1% 2%  
204 0.2% 2%  
205 0.3% 1.4%  
206 0.1% 1.1%  
207 0.1% 1.0%  
208 0.1% 0.9%  
209 0.2% 0.8%  
210 0% 0.6%  
211 0.1% 0.6%  
212 0.1% 0.5%  
213 0.1% 0.5%  
214 0% 0.4%  
215 0% 0.4%  
216 0% 0.3%  
217 0.1% 0.3%  
218 0% 0.2%  
219 0% 0.2%  
220 0% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 0% 99.8%  
80 0% 99.8%  
81 0% 99.8%  
82 0% 99.7%  
83 0% 99.7%  
84 0% 99.7%  
85 0% 99.7%  
86 0% 99.6%  
87 0% 99.6%  
88 0% 99.5%  
89 0.1% 99.5%  
90 0.1% 99.4%  
91 0.1% 99.3%  
92 0.1% 99.2%  
93 0.1% 99.1%  
94 0.1% 99.0%  
95 0.1% 98.9%  
96 0.1% 98.8%  
97 0.1% 98.7%  
98 0.1% 98.6%  
99 0.2% 98%  
100 0.1% 98%  
101 0.3% 98%  
102 0.1% 98%  
103 0.2% 98%  
104 0.2% 98%  
105 0.3% 97%  
106 0.5% 97%  
107 0.4% 97%  
108 0.2% 96%  
109 0.3% 96%  
110 0.3% 96%  
111 0.4% 95%  
112 0.4% 95%  
113 0.3% 94%  
114 0.2% 94%  
115 0.4% 94%  
116 0.3% 94%  
117 0.4% 93%  
118 0.4% 93%  
119 0.4% 93%  
120 0.5% 92%  
121 0.2% 92%  
122 0.9% 91%  
123 0.4% 91%  
124 0.5% 90%  
125 0.7% 90%  
126 0.7% 89%  
127 0.3% 88%  
128 0.3% 88%  
129 0.7% 88%  
130 0.6% 87%  
131 0.5% 86%  
132 0.9% 86%  
133 1.5% 85%  
134 0.6% 83%  
135 0.6% 83%  
136 1.1% 82%  
137 0.8% 81%  
138 0.4% 80%  
139 1.0% 80%  
140 1.4% 79%  
141 0.8% 77%  
142 1.0% 77%  
143 1.3% 76%  
144 2% 74%  
145 0.7% 73%  
146 3% 72%  
147 2% 69%  
148 2% 67%  
149 2% 65%  
150 2% 63%  
151 0.8% 61%  
152 1.3% 60%  
153 3% 59%  
154 2% 56%  
155 2% 54%  
156 3% 52% Median
157 3% 49%  
158 3% 46%  
159 1.3% 42%  
160 2% 41%  
161 2% 39%  
162 1.1% 38%  
163 3% 37%  
164 2% 34%  
165 3% 32%  
166 3% 29%  
167 1.3% 26%  
168 1.0% 25%  
169 2% 24%  
170 0.7% 22%  
171 0.8% 22%  
172 0.6% 21%  
173 1.3% 20%  
174 0.8% 19%  
175 1.2% 18%  
176 1.2% 17%  
177 0.9% 16%  
178 1.5% 15%  
179 1.5% 13%  
180 0.8% 12%  
181 0.7% 11%  
182 1.1% 10%  
183 0.7% 9%  
184 0.7% 8%  
185 0.7% 8%  
186 1.3% 7%  
187 0.6% 6%  
188 0.4% 5%  
189 0.7% 5%  
190 0.2% 4%  
191 0.7% 4%  
192 0.3% 3%  
193 0.2% 3%  
194 0.5% 3%  
195 0.1% 2%  
196 0.3% 2%  
197 0.2% 2%  
198 0.1% 2%  
199 0.2% 2%  
200 0.3% 1.3%  
201 0.1% 1.0%  
202 0.1% 1.0%  
203 0.1% 0.9%  
204 0.2% 0.8%  
205 0.1% 0.6%  
206 0.1% 0.6%  
207 0.1% 0.5%  
208 0.1% 0.4%  
209 0% 0.4%  
210 0% 0.3%  
211 0% 0.3%  
212 0.1% 0.3%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations