Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI, 4 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Labour Party |
32.1% |
46.2% |
44.2–48.3% |
43.6–48.9% |
43.1–49.4% |
42.1–50.4% |
Conservative Party |
43.6% |
24.7% |
23.0–26.6% |
22.5–27.1% |
22.1–27.6% |
21.2–28.5% |
Liberal Democrats |
11.5% |
8.6% |
7.5–9.9% |
7.2–10.2% |
7.0–10.6% |
6.5–11.2% |
Green Party |
2.8% |
7.5% |
6.5–8.7% |
6.2–9.1% |
6.0–9.4% |
5.6–10.0% |
Scottish National Party |
3.9% |
5.4% |
4.6–6.5% |
4.3–6.8% |
4.1–7.1% |
3.8–7.6% |
Brexit Party |
2.0% |
4.2% |
3.5–5.2% |
3.3–5.5% |
3.1–5.7% |
2.8–6.2% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
1.1% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.6–2.0% |
0.5–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
202 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
203 |
0% |
100% |
|
204 |
0% |
100% |
|
205 |
0% |
100% |
|
206 |
0% |
100% |
|
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
331 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
336 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
339 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
342 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
345 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
346 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
347 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
351 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
352 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
353 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
354 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
355 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
356 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
357 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
358 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
359 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
360 |
2% |
95% |
|
361 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
362 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
363 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
364 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
365 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
366 |
2% |
88% |
|
367 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
368 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
369 |
1.1% |
84% |
|
370 |
0.8% |
83% |
|
371 |
0.9% |
82% |
|
372 |
0.7% |
81% |
|
373 |
0.6% |
81% |
|
374 |
1.0% |
80% |
|
375 |
2% |
79% |
|
376 |
3% |
77% |
|
377 |
2% |
75% |
|
378 |
2% |
73% |
|
379 |
3% |
71% |
|
380 |
2% |
68% |
|
381 |
2% |
66% |
|
382 |
1.5% |
64% |
|
383 |
2% |
63% |
|
384 |
2% |
61% |
|
385 |
3% |
59% |
|
386 |
2% |
56% |
|
387 |
6% |
53% |
Median |
388 |
3% |
48% |
|
389 |
2% |
45% |
|
390 |
2% |
43% |
|
391 |
2% |
41% |
|
392 |
3% |
39% |
|
393 |
1.0% |
37% |
|
394 |
4% |
36% |
|
395 |
2% |
32% |
|
396 |
2% |
30% |
|
397 |
2% |
28% |
|
398 |
2% |
26% |
|
399 |
1.3% |
24% |
|
400 |
1.5% |
23% |
|
401 |
0.5% |
22% |
|
402 |
1.2% |
21% |
|
403 |
1.0% |
20% |
|
404 |
0.7% |
19% |
|
405 |
0.9% |
18% |
|
406 |
1.1% |
17% |
|
407 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
408 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
409 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
410 |
1.4% |
13% |
|
411 |
0.4% |
12% |
|
412 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
413 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
414 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
415 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
416 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
417 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
418 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
419 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
420 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
421 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
422 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
423 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
424 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
425 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
426 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
427 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
428 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
429 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
430 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
431 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
432 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
433 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
434 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
435 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
436 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
437 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
438 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
439 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
440 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
441 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
442 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
443 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
444 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
445 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
446 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
447 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
448 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
449 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
450 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
451 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
452 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
453 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
454 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
455 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
456 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
457 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
458 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
459 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
460 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
461 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
462 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
463 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
74 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
75 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
76 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
77 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
78 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
79 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
80 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
81 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
82 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
83 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
84 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
85 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
86 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
87 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
88 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
93 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
94 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
97 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
98 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
99 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
101 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
103 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
104 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
105 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
106 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
107 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
109 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
110 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
111 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
112 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
113 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
114 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
115 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
116 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
117 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
119 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
120 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
121 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
122 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
123 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
124 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
125 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
126 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
127 |
0.3% |
88% |
|
128 |
0.3% |
88% |
|
129 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
130 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
131 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
132 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
133 |
1.5% |
85% |
|
134 |
0.6% |
83% |
|
135 |
0.6% |
83% |
|
136 |
1.1% |
82% |
|
137 |
0.8% |
81% |
|
138 |
0.4% |
80% |
|
139 |
1.0% |
80% |
|
140 |
1.4% |
79% |
|
141 |
0.8% |
77% |
|
142 |
1.0% |
77% |
|
143 |
1.3% |
76% |
|
144 |
2% |
74% |
|
145 |
0.7% |
73% |
|
146 |
3% |
72% |
|
147 |
2% |
69% |
|
148 |
2% |
67% |
|
149 |
2% |
65% |
|
150 |
2% |
63% |
|
151 |
0.8% |
61% |
|
152 |
1.3% |
60% |
|
153 |
3% |
59% |
|
154 |
2% |
56% |
|
155 |
2% |
54% |
|
156 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
157 |
3% |
49% |
|
158 |
3% |
46% |
|
159 |
1.3% |
42% |
|
160 |
2% |
41% |
|
161 |
2% |
39% |
|
162 |
1.1% |
38% |
|
163 |
3% |
37% |
|
164 |
2% |
34% |
|
165 |
3% |
32% |
|
166 |
3% |
29% |
|
167 |
1.3% |
26% |
|
168 |
1.0% |
25% |
|
169 |
2% |
24% |
|
170 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
171 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
172 |
0.6% |
21% |
|
173 |
1.3% |
20% |
|
174 |
0.8% |
19% |
|
175 |
1.2% |
18% |
|
176 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
177 |
0.9% |
16% |
|
178 |
1.5% |
15% |
|
179 |
1.5% |
13% |
|
180 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
181 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
182 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
183 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
184 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
185 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
186 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
187 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
188 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
189 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
190 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
191 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
192 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
193 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
194 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
195 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
196 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
197 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
199 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
200 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
204 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
208 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
209 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
210 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
211 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
212 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
213 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
214 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
215 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
216 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
217 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
218 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
219 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
220 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
221 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
222 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
9 |
0% |
97% |
|
10 |
5% |
97% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
92% |
Last Result |
12 |
0.4% |
92% |
|
13 |
0% |
91% |
|
14 |
5% |
91% |
|
15 |
7% |
86% |
|
16 |
2% |
80% |
|
17 |
10% |
78% |
|
18 |
14% |
68% |
|
19 |
5% |
54% |
Median |
20 |
10% |
48% |
|
21 |
12% |
38% |
|
22 |
8% |
27% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
19% |
|
24 |
2% |
18% |
|
25 |
3% |
16% |
|
26 |
3% |
13% |
|
27 |
2% |
10% |
|
28 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
29 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
31 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
32 |
1.5% |
5% |
|
33 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
34 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
39 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
41 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
43 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
5% |
98% |
|
3 |
90% |
93% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
3% |
|
5 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
43 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
49 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
98.5% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
52 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
53 |
2% |
97% |
|
54 |
2% |
95% |
|
55 |
4% |
93% |
|
56 |
5% |
89% |
|
57 |
18% |
84% |
|
58 |
66% |
66% |
Median |
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
20% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
4% |
80% |
|
2 |
22% |
76% |
|
3 |
48% |
54% |
Median |
4 |
5% |
6% |
|
5 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
8% |
98% |
Last Result |
5 |
78% |
90% |
Median |
6 |
10% |
13% |
|
7 |
3% |
3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
472 |
100% |
446–503 |
439–515 |
433–522 |
420–538 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
265 |
469 |
100% |
443–500 |
437–512 |
430–520 |
418–535 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
261 |
464 |
100% |
438–495 |
431–507 |
425–514 |
413–530 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
254 |
450 |
100% |
427–476 |
422–488 |
417–494 |
405–510 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
250 |
445 |
100% |
421–471 |
417–484 |
412–489 |
399–505 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
217 |
411 |
100% |
386–443 |
379–455 |
373–463 |
360–479 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
213 |
406 |
100% |
380–438 |
374–450 |
367–458 |
355–474 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
206 |
392 |
100% |
369–421 |
365–432 |
360–438 |
347–453 |
Labour Party |
202 |
387 |
100% |
364–416 |
359–427 |
354–433 |
342–448 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
417 |
219 |
0% |
186–244 |
173–251 |
165–257 |
149–270 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
413 |
214 |
0% |
181–239 |
168–245 |
160–252 |
144–264 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
376 |
175 |
0% |
148–197 |
136–203 |
130–207 |
113–220 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
369 |
161 |
0% |
129–187 |
116–193 |
109–199 |
94–212 |
Conservative Party |
365 |
156 |
0% |
124–182 |
111–188 |
104–194 |
89–207 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
266 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
100% |
|
385 |
0% |
100% |
|
386 |
0% |
100% |
|
387 |
0% |
100% |
|
388 |
0% |
100% |
|
389 |
0% |
100% |
|
390 |
0% |
100% |
|
391 |
0% |
100% |
|
392 |
0% |
100% |
|
393 |
0% |
100% |
|
394 |
0% |
100% |
|
395 |
0% |
100% |
|
396 |
0% |
100% |
|
397 |
0% |
100% |
|
398 |
0% |
100% |
|
399 |
0% |
100% |
|
400 |
0% |
100% |
|
401 |
0% |
100% |
|
402 |
0% |
100% |
|
403 |
0% |
100% |
|
404 |
0% |
100% |
|
405 |
0% |
100% |
|
406 |
0% |
100% |
|
407 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
408 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
409 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
410 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
411 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
412 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
413 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
414 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
415 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
416 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
417 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
418 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
419 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
420 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
421 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
422 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
423 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
424 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
425 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
426 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
427 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
428 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
429 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
430 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
431 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
432 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
433 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
434 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
435 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
436 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
437 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
438 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
439 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
440 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
441 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
442 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
443 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
444 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
445 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
446 |
0.4% |
90% |
|
447 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
448 |
2% |
89% |
|
449 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
450 |
2% |
86% |
|
451 |
0.8% |
85% |
|
452 |
2% |
84% |
|
453 |
0.5% |
82% |
|
454 |
1.1% |
82% |
|
455 |
0.6% |
81% |
|
456 |
0.5% |
80% |
|
457 |
1.2% |
80% |
|
458 |
2% |
78% |
|
459 |
1.3% |
77% |
|
460 |
1.3% |
76% |
|
461 |
2% |
74% |
|
462 |
3% |
72% |
|
463 |
3% |
70% |
|
464 |
2% |
67% |
|
465 |
1.2% |
65% |
|
466 |
1.3% |
63% |
|
467 |
2% |
62% |
|
468 |
2% |
61% |
|
469 |
2% |
59% |
|
470 |
2% |
57% |
|
471 |
3% |
54% |
|
472 |
3% |
51% |
Median |
473 |
2% |
48% |
|
474 |
3% |
45% |
|
475 |
2% |
43% |
|
476 |
0.9% |
41% |
|
477 |
2% |
40% |
|
478 |
2% |
39% |
|
479 |
1.5% |
36% |
|
480 |
2% |
35% |
|
481 |
1.3% |
33% |
|
482 |
2% |
31% |
|
483 |
3% |
29% |
|
484 |
1.2% |
26% |
|
485 |
0.6% |
25% |
|
486 |
0.8% |
24% |
|
487 |
2% |
23% |
|
488 |
1.1% |
21% |
|
489 |
0.7% |
20% |
|
490 |
1.1% |
20% |
|
491 |
0.5% |
18% |
|
492 |
1.1% |
18% |
|
493 |
0.7% |
17% |
|
494 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
495 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
496 |
0.3% |
14% |
|
497 |
0.5% |
14% |
|
498 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
499 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
500 |
1.0% |
12% |
|
501 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
502 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
503 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
504 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
505 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
506 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
507 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
508 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
509 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
510 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
511 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
512 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
513 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
514 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
515 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
516 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
517 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
518 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
519 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
520 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
521 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
522 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
523 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
524 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
525 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
526 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
527 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
528 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
529 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
530 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
531 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
532 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
533 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
534 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
535 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
536 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
537 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
538 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
539 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
540 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
541 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
542 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
543 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
544 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
545 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
546 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
547 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
548 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
549 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
550 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
551 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
552 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
553 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
554 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
555 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
556 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
265 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
100% |
|
385 |
0% |
100% |
|
386 |
0% |
100% |
|
387 |
0% |
100% |
|
388 |
0% |
100% |
|
389 |
0% |
100% |
|
390 |
0% |
100% |
|
391 |
0% |
100% |
|
392 |
0% |
100% |
|
393 |
0% |
100% |
|
394 |
0% |
100% |
|
395 |
0% |
100% |
|
396 |
0% |
100% |
|
397 |
0% |
100% |
|
398 |
0% |
100% |
|
399 |
0% |
100% |
|
400 |
0% |
100% |
|
401 |
0% |
100% |
|
402 |
0% |
100% |
|
403 |
0% |
100% |
|
404 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
405 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
406 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
407 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
408 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
409 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
410 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
411 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
412 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
413 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
414 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
415 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
416 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
417 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
418 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
419 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
420 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
421 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
422 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
423 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
424 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
425 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
426 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
427 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
428 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
429 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
430 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
431 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
432 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
433 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
434 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
435 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
436 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
437 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
438 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
439 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
440 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
441 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
442 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
443 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
444 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
445 |
2% |
89% |
|
446 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
447 |
2% |
87% |
|
448 |
0.8% |
85% |
|
449 |
2% |
84% |
|
450 |
0.6% |
82% |
|
451 |
1.2% |
82% |
|
452 |
0.5% |
81% |
|
453 |
0.5% |
80% |
|
454 |
1.2% |
80% |
|
455 |
2% |
79% |
|
456 |
1.4% |
77% |
|
457 |
1.3% |
76% |
|
458 |
2% |
74% |
|
459 |
3% |
73% |
|
460 |
3% |
70% |
|
461 |
2% |
67% |
|
462 |
1.4% |
65% |
|
463 |
1.3% |
64% |
|
464 |
2% |
62% |
|
465 |
2% |
61% |
|
466 |
2% |
59% |
|
467 |
2% |
57% |
|
468 |
4% |
55% |
|
469 |
3% |
51% |
Median |
470 |
2% |
48% |
|
471 |
3% |
46% |
|
472 |
2% |
43% |
|
473 |
1.2% |
42% |
|
474 |
1.5% |
40% |
|
475 |
3% |
39% |
|
476 |
1.5% |
36% |
|
477 |
2% |
35% |
|
478 |
1.4% |
33% |
|
479 |
2% |
31% |
|
480 |
3% |
29% |
|
481 |
1.4% |
26% |
|
482 |
0.7% |
25% |
|
483 |
0.7% |
24% |
|
484 |
2% |
23% |
|
485 |
1.2% |
22% |
|
486 |
0.9% |
21% |
|
487 |
1.1% |
20% |
|
488 |
0.6% |
19% |
|
489 |
1.2% |
18% |
|
490 |
0.6% |
17% |
|
491 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
492 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
493 |
0.3% |
14% |
|
494 |
0.5% |
14% |
|
495 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
496 |
0.4% |
12% |
|
497 |
1.0% |
12% |
|
498 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
499 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
500 |
0.2% |
10% |
|
501 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
502 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
503 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
504 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
505 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
506 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
507 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
508 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
509 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
510 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
511 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
512 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
513 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
514 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
515 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
516 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
517 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
518 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
519 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
520 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
521 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
522 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
523 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
524 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
525 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
526 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
527 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
528 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
529 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
530 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
531 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
532 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
533 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
534 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
535 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
536 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
537 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
538 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
539 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
540 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
541 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
542 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
543 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
544 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
545 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
546 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
547 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
548 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
549 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
550 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
551 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
552 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
553 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
261 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
100% |
|
385 |
0% |
100% |
|
386 |
0% |
100% |
|
387 |
0% |
100% |
|
388 |
0% |
100% |
|
389 |
0% |
100% |
|
390 |
0% |
100% |
|
391 |
0% |
100% |
|
392 |
0% |
100% |
|
393 |
0% |
100% |
|
394 |
0% |
100% |
|
395 |
0% |
100% |
|
396 |
0% |
100% |
|
397 |
0% |
100% |
|
398 |
0% |
100% |
|
399 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
400 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
401 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
402 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
403 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
404 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
405 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
406 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
407 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
408 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
409 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
410 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
411 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
412 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
413 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
414 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
415 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
416 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
417 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
418 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
419 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
420 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
421 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
422 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
423 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
424 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
425 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
426 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
427 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
428 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
429 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
430 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
431 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
432 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
433 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
434 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
435 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
436 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
437 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
438 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
439 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
440 |
1.3% |
89% |
|
441 |
1.1% |
87% |
|
442 |
2% |
86% |
|
443 |
1.0% |
85% |
|
444 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
445 |
0.6% |
82% |
|
446 |
1.2% |
82% |
|
447 |
0.5% |
81% |
|
448 |
0.5% |
80% |
|
449 |
1.2% |
80% |
|
450 |
2% |
78% |
|
451 |
1.1% |
77% |
|
452 |
2% |
76% |
|
453 |
2% |
74% |
|
454 |
2% |
72% |
|
455 |
3% |
70% |
|
456 |
3% |
67% |
|
457 |
1.2% |
65% |
|
458 |
1.5% |
63% |
|
459 |
1.2% |
62% |
|
460 |
1.4% |
61% |
|
461 |
2% |
59% |
|
462 |
2% |
57% |
|
463 |
4% |
55% |
|
464 |
4% |
51% |
Median |
465 |
2% |
48% |
|
466 |
2% |
45% |
|
467 |
1.5% |
43% |
|
468 |
1.2% |
42% |
|
469 |
1.5% |
40% |
|
470 |
3% |
39% |
|
471 |
1.2% |
36% |
|
472 |
2% |
35% |
|
473 |
1.0% |
33% |
|
474 |
3% |
32% |
|
475 |
3% |
29% |
|
476 |
1.5% |
26% |
|
477 |
0.4% |
25% |
|
478 |
0.9% |
24% |
|
479 |
2% |
23% |
|
480 |
1.1% |
22% |
|
481 |
0.9% |
21% |
|
482 |
1.2% |
20% |
|
483 |
0.4% |
18% |
|
484 |
1.1% |
18% |
|
485 |
0.8% |
17% |
|
486 |
1.5% |
16% |
|
487 |
0.7% |
15% |
|
488 |
0.5% |
14% |
|
489 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
490 |
0.9% |
13% |
|
491 |
0.3% |
12% |
|
492 |
1.0% |
12% |
|
493 |
0.3% |
11% |
|
494 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
495 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
496 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
497 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
498 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
499 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
500 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
501 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
502 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
503 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
504 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
505 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
506 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
507 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
508 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
509 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
510 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
511 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
512 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
513 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
514 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
515 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
516 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
517 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
518 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
519 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
520 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
521 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
522 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
523 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
524 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
525 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
526 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
527 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
528 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
529 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
530 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
531 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
532 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
533 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
534 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
535 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
536 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
537 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
538 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
539 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
540 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
541 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
542 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
543 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
544 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
545 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
546 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
547 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
548 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
254 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
100% |
|
385 |
0% |
100% |
|
386 |
0% |
100% |
|
387 |
0% |
100% |
|
388 |
0% |
100% |
|
389 |
0% |
100% |
|
390 |
0% |
100% |
|
391 |
0% |
100% |
|
392 |
0% |
100% |
|
393 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
394 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
395 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
396 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
397 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
398 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
399 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
400 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
401 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
402 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
403 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
404 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
405 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
406 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
407 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
408 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
409 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
410 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
411 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
412 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
413 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
414 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
415 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
416 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
417 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
418 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
419 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
420 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
421 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
422 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
423 |
2% |
95% |
|
424 |
0.8% |
93% |
|
425 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
426 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
427 |
1.0% |
90% |
|
428 |
2% |
89% |
|
429 |
2% |
88% |
|
430 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
431 |
1.4% |
85% |
|
432 |
1.5% |
84% |
|
433 |
0.5% |
82% |
|
434 |
1.1% |
82% |
|
435 |
0.7% |
81% |
|
436 |
0.4% |
80% |
|
437 |
1.1% |
80% |
|
438 |
1.3% |
79% |
|
439 |
4% |
77% |
|
440 |
0.4% |
73% |
|
441 |
3% |
73% |
|
442 |
3% |
69% |
|
443 |
0.9% |
66% |
|
444 |
2% |
65% |
|
445 |
2% |
63% |
|
446 |
2% |
61% |
|
447 |
2% |
59% |
|
448 |
2% |
57% |
|
449 |
4% |
55% |
|
450 |
6% |
50% |
Median |
451 |
2% |
45% |
|
452 |
2% |
42% |
|
453 |
2% |
40% |
|
454 |
1.4% |
39% |
|
455 |
3% |
37% |
|
456 |
2% |
35% |
|
457 |
3% |
33% |
|
458 |
2% |
30% |
|
459 |
2% |
29% |
|
460 |
2% |
27% |
|
461 |
2% |
25% |
|
462 |
2% |
23% |
|
463 |
0.7% |
21% |
|
464 |
1.1% |
21% |
|
465 |
0.9% |
19% |
|
466 |
0.6% |
19% |
|
467 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
468 |
0.9% |
17% |
|
469 |
2% |
16% |
|
470 |
0.7% |
15% |
|
471 |
2% |
14% |
|
472 |
0.4% |
12% |
|
473 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
474 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
475 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
476 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
477 |
0.2% |
10% |
|
478 |
0.2% |
10% |
|
479 |
0.4% |
10% |
|
480 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
481 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
482 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
483 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
484 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
485 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
486 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
487 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
488 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
489 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
490 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
491 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
492 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
493 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
494 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
495 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
496 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
497 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
498 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
499 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
500 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
501 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
502 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
503 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
504 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
505 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
506 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
507 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
508 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
509 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
510 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
511 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
512 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
513 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
514 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
515 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
516 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
517 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
518 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
519 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
520 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
521 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
522 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
523 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
250 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
100% |
|
385 |
0% |
100% |
|
386 |
0% |
100% |
|
387 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
388 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
389 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
390 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
391 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
392 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
393 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
394 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
395 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
396 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
397 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
398 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
399 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
400 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
401 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
402 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
403 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
404 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
405 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
406 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
407 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
408 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
409 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
410 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
411 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
412 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
413 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
414 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
415 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
416 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
417 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
418 |
2% |
94% |
|
419 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
420 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
421 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
422 |
0.9% |
90% |
|
423 |
1.5% |
89% |
|
424 |
2% |
88% |
|
425 |
0.8% |
86% |
|
426 |
1.4% |
85% |
|
427 |
1.3% |
84% |
|
428 |
0.5% |
82% |
|
429 |
1.1% |
82% |
|
430 |
0.6% |
81% |
|
431 |
0.5% |
80% |
|
432 |
1.0% |
80% |
|
433 |
2% |
79% |
|
434 |
3% |
77% |
|
435 |
1.4% |
74% |
|
436 |
3% |
72% |
|
437 |
3% |
69% |
|
438 |
1.4% |
67% |
|
439 |
2% |
65% |
|
440 |
2% |
63% |
|
441 |
2% |
61% |
|
442 |
3% |
59% |
|
443 |
3% |
57% |
|
444 |
4% |
54% |
|
445 |
6% |
50% |
Median |
446 |
2% |
44% |
|
447 |
2% |
42% |
|
448 |
2% |
41% |
|
449 |
1.4% |
39% |
|
450 |
3% |
37% |
|
451 |
1.3% |
35% |
|
452 |
3% |
33% |
|
453 |
1.4% |
30% |
|
454 |
2% |
29% |
|
455 |
2% |
27% |
|
456 |
2% |
25% |
|
457 |
2% |
23% |
|
458 |
0.8% |
21% |
|
459 |
1.1% |
20% |
|
460 |
0.8% |
19% |
|
461 |
0.7% |
19% |
|
462 |
0.6% |
18% |
|
463 |
1.0% |
17% |
|
464 |
2% |
16% |
|
465 |
0.9% |
15% |
|
466 |
2% |
14% |
|
467 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
468 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
469 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
470 |
0.3% |
11% |
|
471 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
472 |
0.1% |
10% |
|
473 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
474 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
475 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
476 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
477 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
478 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
479 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
480 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
481 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
482 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
483 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
484 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
485 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
486 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
487 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
488 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
489 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
490 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
491 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
492 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
493 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
494 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
495 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
496 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
497 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
498 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
499 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
500 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
501 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
502 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
503 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
504 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
505 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
506 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
507 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
508 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
509 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
510 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
511 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
512 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
513 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
514 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
515 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
516 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
517 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
518 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
217 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
347 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
348 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
349 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
350 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
351 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
352 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
353 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
354 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
355 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
356 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
357 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
358 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
361 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
364 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
365 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
366 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
367 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
369 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
370 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
371 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
372 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
373 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
374 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
375 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
376 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
377 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
378 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
379 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
380 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
381 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
382 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
383 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
384 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
385 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
386 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
387 |
1.4% |
89% |
|
388 |
0.9% |
88% |
|
389 |
2% |
87% |
|
390 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
391 |
2% |
85% |
|
392 |
0.5% |
83% |
|
393 |
1.0% |
83% |
|
394 |
0.9% |
82% |
|
395 |
0.5% |
81% |
|
396 |
1.0% |
80% |
|
397 |
1.3% |
79% |
|
398 |
1.3% |
78% |
|
399 |
1.5% |
77% |
|
400 |
2% |
75% |
|
401 |
2% |
73% |
|
402 |
3% |
71% |
|
403 |
3% |
68% |
|
404 |
0.7% |
66% |
|
405 |
2% |
65% |
|
406 |
1.3% |
63% |
|
407 |
2% |
62% |
|
408 |
2% |
60% |
|
409 |
2% |
59% |
|
410 |
3% |
56% |
|
411 |
3% |
53% |
Median |
412 |
2% |
50% |
|
413 |
3% |
48% |
|
414 |
2% |
45% |
|
415 |
1.2% |
43% |
|
416 |
1.1% |
42% |
|
417 |
3% |
41% |
|
418 |
1.3% |
38% |
|
419 |
2% |
37% |
|
420 |
2% |
35% |
|
421 |
2% |
33% |
|
422 |
2% |
31% |
|
423 |
2% |
28% |
|
424 |
0.8% |
27% |
|
425 |
1.1% |
26% |
|
426 |
2% |
25% |
|
427 |
1.0% |
23% |
|
428 |
0.9% |
22% |
|
429 |
1.0% |
21% |
|
430 |
0.8% |
20% |
|
431 |
1.0% |
19% |
|
432 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
433 |
1.0% |
17% |
|
434 |
0.3% |
16% |
|
435 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
436 |
0.6% |
15% |
|
437 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
438 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
439 |
1.4% |
13% |
|
440 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
441 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
442 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
443 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
444 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
445 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
446 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
447 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
448 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
449 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
450 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
451 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
452 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
453 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
454 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
455 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
456 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
457 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
458 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
459 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
460 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
461 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
462 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
463 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
464 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
465 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
466 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
467 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
468 |
0% |
2% |
|
469 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
470 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
471 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
472 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
473 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
474 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
475 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
476 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
477 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
478 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
479 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
480 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
481 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
482 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
483 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
484 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
485 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
486 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
487 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
488 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
489 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
490 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
491 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
492 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
493 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
494 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
495 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
496 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
497 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
213 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
342 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
343 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
344 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
345 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
346 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
347 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
348 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
349 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
350 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
351 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
352 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
353 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
356 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
357 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
358 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
361 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
363 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
364 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
365 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
366 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
367 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
368 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
369 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
370 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
371 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
372 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
373 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
374 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
375 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
376 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
377 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
378 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
379 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
380 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
381 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
382 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
383 |
1.2% |
88% |
|
384 |
2% |
87% |
|
385 |
0.9% |
85% |
|
386 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
387 |
0.6% |
83% |
|
388 |
0.8% |
82% |
|
389 |
1.0% |
82% |
|
390 |
0.4% |
81% |
|
391 |
1.0% |
80% |
|
392 |
1.5% |
79% |
|
393 |
1.1% |
78% |
|
394 |
1.3% |
77% |
|
395 |
3% |
75% |
|
396 |
2% |
73% |
|
397 |
3% |
71% |
|
398 |
3% |
68% |
|
399 |
0.4% |
65% |
|
400 |
2% |
65% |
|
401 |
0.9% |
63% |
|
402 |
2% |
62% |
|
403 |
2% |
60% |
|
404 |
3% |
59% |
|
405 |
3% |
56% |
|
406 |
3% |
53% |
Median |
407 |
3% |
50% |
|
408 |
2% |
47% |
|
409 |
2% |
45% |
|
410 |
1.2% |
43% |
|
411 |
1.1% |
42% |
|
412 |
3% |
41% |
|
413 |
1.3% |
38% |
|
414 |
2% |
36% |
|
415 |
1.3% |
35% |
|
416 |
3% |
33% |
|
417 |
2% |
30% |
|
418 |
2% |
28% |
|
419 |
0.5% |
26% |
|
420 |
1.4% |
26% |
|
421 |
2% |
24% |
|
422 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
423 |
1.0% |
22% |
|
424 |
1.1% |
21% |
|
425 |
0.7% |
20% |
|
426 |
0.9% |
19% |
|
427 |
0.6% |
18% |
|
428 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
429 |
0.4% |
16% |
|
430 |
1.3% |
16% |
|
431 |
0.5% |
15% |
|
432 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
433 |
0.5% |
14% |
|
434 |
1.4% |
13% |
|
435 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
436 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
437 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
438 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
439 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
440 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
441 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
442 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
443 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
444 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
445 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
446 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
447 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
448 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
449 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
450 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
451 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
452 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
453 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
454 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
455 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
456 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
457 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
458 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
459 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
460 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
461 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
462 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
463 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
464 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
465 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
466 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
467 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
468 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
469 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
470 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
471 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
472 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
473 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
474 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
475 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
476 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
477 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
478 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
479 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
480 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
481 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
482 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
483 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
484 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
485 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
486 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
487 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
488 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
489 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
490 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
491 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
492 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
493 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
206 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
336 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
338 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
339 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
340 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
341 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
342 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
344 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
345 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
347 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
351 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
352 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
353 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
356 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
358 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
359 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
360 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
361 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
362 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
363 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
364 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
365 |
2% |
95% |
|
366 |
0.8% |
93% |
|
367 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
368 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
369 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
370 |
1.5% |
90% |
|
371 |
2% |
88% |
|
372 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
373 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
374 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
375 |
0.7% |
83% |
|
376 |
1.1% |
83% |
|
377 |
0.8% |
81% |
|
378 |
0.5% |
81% |
|
379 |
1.2% |
80% |
|
380 |
1.3% |
79% |
|
381 |
4% |
78% |
|
382 |
0.8% |
74% |
|
383 |
2% |
73% |
|
384 |
3% |
71% |
|
385 |
2% |
68% |
|
386 |
2% |
66% |
|
387 |
1.3% |
64% |
|
388 |
2% |
63% |
|
389 |
2% |
61% |
|
390 |
2% |
58% |
|
391 |
2% |
56% |
|
392 |
6% |
54% |
Median |
393 |
3% |
48% |
|
394 |
2% |
45% |
|
395 |
2% |
43% |
|
396 |
2% |
41% |
|
397 |
2% |
39% |
|
398 |
2% |
37% |
|
399 |
3% |
35% |
|
400 |
2% |
32% |
|
401 |
2% |
30% |
|
402 |
2% |
28% |
|
403 |
2% |
27% |
|
404 |
1.1% |
24% |
|
405 |
1.3% |
23% |
|
406 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
407 |
1.2% |
21% |
|
408 |
0.9% |
20% |
|
409 |
0.9% |
19% |
|
410 |
0.9% |
18% |
|
411 |
1.1% |
17% |
|
412 |
1.2% |
16% |
|
413 |
0.9% |
15% |
|
414 |
0.7% |
14% |
|
415 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
416 |
0.3% |
12% |
|
417 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
418 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
419 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
420 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
421 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
422 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
423 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
424 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
425 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
426 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
427 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
428 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
429 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
430 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
431 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
432 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
433 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
434 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
435 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
436 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
437 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
438 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
439 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
440 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
441 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
442 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
443 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
444 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
445 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
446 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
447 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
448 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
449 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
450 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
451 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
452 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
453 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
454 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
455 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
456 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
457 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
458 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
459 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
460 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
461 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
462 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
463 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
464 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
465 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
466 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
467 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
202 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
203 |
0% |
100% |
|
204 |
0% |
100% |
|
205 |
0% |
100% |
|
206 |
0% |
100% |
|
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
331 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
336 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
339 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
342 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
345 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
346 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
347 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
351 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
352 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
353 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
354 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
355 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
356 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
357 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
358 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
359 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
360 |
2% |
95% |
|
361 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
362 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
363 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
364 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
365 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
366 |
2% |
88% |
|
367 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
368 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
369 |
1.1% |
84% |
|
370 |
0.8% |
83% |
|
371 |
0.9% |
82% |
|
372 |
0.7% |
81% |
|
373 |
0.6% |
81% |
|
374 |
1.0% |
80% |
|
375 |
2% |
79% |
|
376 |
3% |
77% |
|
377 |
2% |
75% |
|
378 |
2% |
73% |
|
379 |
3% |
71% |
|
380 |
2% |
68% |
|
381 |
2% |
66% |
|
382 |
1.5% |
64% |
|
383 |
2% |
63% |
|
384 |
2% |
61% |
|
385 |
3% |
59% |
|
386 |
2% |
56% |
|
387 |
6% |
53% |
Median |
388 |
3% |
48% |
|
389 |
2% |
45% |
|
390 |
2% |
43% |
|
391 |
2% |
41% |
|
392 |
3% |
39% |
|
393 |
1.0% |
37% |
|
394 |
4% |
36% |
|
395 |
2% |
32% |
|
396 |
2% |
30% |
|
397 |
2% |
28% |
|
398 |
2% |
26% |
|
399 |
1.3% |
24% |
|
400 |
1.5% |
23% |
|
401 |
0.5% |
22% |
|
402 |
1.2% |
21% |
|
403 |
1.0% |
20% |
|
404 |
0.7% |
19% |
|
405 |
0.9% |
18% |
|
406 |
1.1% |
17% |
|
407 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
408 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
409 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
410 |
1.4% |
13% |
|
411 |
0.4% |
12% |
|
412 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
413 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
414 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
415 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
416 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
417 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
418 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
419 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
420 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
421 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
422 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
423 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
424 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
425 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
426 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
427 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
428 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
429 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
430 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
431 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
432 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
433 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
434 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
435 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
436 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
437 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
438 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
439 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
440 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
441 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
442 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
443 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
444 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
445 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
446 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
447 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
448 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
449 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
450 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
451 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
452 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
453 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
454 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
455 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
456 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
457 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
458 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
459 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
460 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
461 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
462 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
463 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
133 |
0% |
100% |
|
134 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
135 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
136 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
137 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
138 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
139 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
140 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
141 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
142 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
143 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
144 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
145 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
146 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
148 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
149 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
150 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
153 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
160 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
161 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
162 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
163 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
164 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
165 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
166 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
167 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
168 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
169 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
170 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
171 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
172 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
173 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
174 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
175 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
176 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
177 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
178 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
179 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
180 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
181 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
182 |
0.4% |
92% |
|
183 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
184 |
0.3% |
91% |
|
185 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
186 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
187 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
188 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
189 |
0.6% |
88% |
|
190 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
191 |
0.5% |
87% |
|
192 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
193 |
0.6% |
86% |
|
194 |
2% |
85% |
|
195 |
0.7% |
84% |
|
196 |
0.3% |
83% |
|
197 |
0.6% |
83% |
|
198 |
0.7% |
82% |
|
199 |
1.0% |
81% |
|
200 |
0.9% |
80% |
|
201 |
0.7% |
79% |
|
202 |
0.8% |
79% |
|
203 |
2% |
78% |
|
204 |
1.1% |
76% |
|
205 |
1.2% |
75% |
|
206 |
2% |
74% |
|
207 |
1.4% |
72% |
|
208 |
0.5% |
71% |
|
209 |
3% |
70% |
|
210 |
2% |
67% |
|
211 |
3% |
66% |
|
212 |
1.2% |
63% |
|
213 |
2% |
62% |
|
214 |
0.7% |
59% |
|
215 |
2% |
59% |
|
216 |
2% |
57% |
|
217 |
2% |
54% |
|
218 |
2% |
53% |
|
219 |
4% |
50% |
Median |
220 |
3% |
46% |
|
221 |
2% |
43% |
|
222 |
1.1% |
41% |
|
223 |
1.5% |
40% |
|
224 |
1.3% |
38% |
|
225 |
1.2% |
37% |
|
226 |
2% |
36% |
|
227 |
3% |
33% |
|
228 |
2% |
30% |
|
229 |
3% |
28% |
|
230 |
1.2% |
26% |
|
231 |
2% |
24% |
|
232 |
1.3% |
23% |
|
233 |
0.4% |
21% |
|
234 |
0.8% |
21% |
|
235 |
1.2% |
20% |
|
236 |
0.7% |
19% |
|
237 |
0.9% |
18% |
|
238 |
1.2% |
18% |
|
239 |
1.0% |
16% |
|
240 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
241 |
2% |
14% |
|
242 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
243 |
0.8% |
11% |
|
244 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
245 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
246 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
247 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
248 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
249 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
250 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
251 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
252 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
254 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
255 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
256 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
257 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
258 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
260 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
262 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
263 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
267 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
272 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
277 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
284 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
285 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
|
377 |
0% |
0% |
|
378 |
0% |
0% |
|
379 |
0% |
0% |
|
380 |
0% |
0% |
|
381 |
0% |
0% |
|
382 |
0% |
0% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
384 |
0% |
0% |
|
385 |
0% |
0% |
|
386 |
0% |
0% |
|
387 |
0% |
0% |
|
388 |
0% |
0% |
|
389 |
0% |
0% |
|
390 |
0% |
0% |
|
391 |
0% |
0% |
|
392 |
0% |
0% |
|
393 |
0% |
0% |
|
394 |
0% |
0% |
|
395 |
0% |
0% |
|
396 |
0% |
0% |
|
397 |
0% |
0% |
|
398 |
0% |
0% |
|
399 |
0% |
0% |
|
400 |
0% |
0% |
|
401 |
0% |
0% |
|
402 |
0% |
0% |
|
403 |
0% |
0% |
|
404 |
0% |
0% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
406 |
0% |
0% |
|
407 |
0% |
0% |
|
408 |
0% |
0% |
|
409 |
0% |
0% |
|
410 |
0% |
0% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
413 |
0% |
0% |
|
414 |
0% |
0% |
|
415 |
0% |
0% |
|
416 |
0% |
0% |
|
417 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
128 |
0% |
100% |
|
129 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
130 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
131 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
132 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
133 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
134 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
135 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
136 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
137 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
138 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
139 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
140 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
141 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
142 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
143 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
144 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
145 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
148 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
158 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
159 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
161 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
162 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
163 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
164 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
165 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
166 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
167 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
168 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
169 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
170 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
171 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
172 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
173 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
174 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
175 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
176 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
177 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
178 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
179 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
180 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
181 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
182 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
183 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
184 |
0.4% |
88% |
|
185 |
0.6% |
88% |
|
186 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
187 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
188 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
189 |
2% |
85% |
|
190 |
0.4% |
84% |
|
191 |
0.7% |
83% |
|
192 |
0.6% |
83% |
|
193 |
0.6% |
82% |
|
194 |
1.0% |
81% |
|
195 |
0.8% |
80% |
|
196 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
197 |
1.0% |
79% |
|
198 |
2% |
78% |
|
199 |
1.2% |
76% |
|
200 |
1.2% |
75% |
|
201 |
1.5% |
74% |
|
202 |
1.1% |
72% |
|
203 |
0.6% |
71% |
|
204 |
3% |
71% |
|
205 |
2% |
67% |
|
206 |
2% |
65% |
|
207 |
2% |
63% |
|
208 |
2% |
61% |
|
209 |
0.8% |
60% |
|
210 |
2% |
59% |
|
211 |
3% |
57% |
|
212 |
2% |
54% |
|
213 |
2% |
52% |
|
214 |
4% |
50% |
Median |
215 |
3% |
46% |
|
216 |
2% |
43% |
|
217 |
2% |
41% |
|
218 |
2% |
40% |
|
219 |
1.2% |
38% |
|
220 |
1.3% |
37% |
|
221 |
2% |
35% |
|
222 |
3% |
33% |
|
223 |
2% |
30% |
|
224 |
3% |
28% |
|
225 |
0.9% |
25% |
|
226 |
2% |
24% |
|
227 |
1.1% |
23% |
|
228 |
0.6% |
22% |
|
229 |
0.7% |
21% |
|
230 |
1.2% |
20% |
|
231 |
0.8% |
19% |
|
232 |
0.9% |
18% |
|
233 |
1.3% |
17% |
|
234 |
1.0% |
16% |
|
235 |
0.9% |
15% |
|
236 |
2% |
14% |
|
237 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
238 |
0.8% |
11% |
|
239 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
240 |
1.2% |
10% |
|
241 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
242 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
243 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
244 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
245 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
246 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
247 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
248 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
249 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
251 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
252 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
254 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
257 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
259 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
264 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
269 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
271 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
272 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
277 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
|
377 |
0% |
0% |
|
378 |
0% |
0% |
|
379 |
0% |
0% |
|
380 |
0% |
0% |
|
381 |
0% |
0% |
|
382 |
0% |
0% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
384 |
0% |
0% |
|
385 |
0% |
0% |
|
386 |
0% |
0% |
|
387 |
0% |
0% |
|
388 |
0% |
0% |
|
389 |
0% |
0% |
|
390 |
0% |
0% |
|
391 |
0% |
0% |
|
392 |
0% |
0% |
|
393 |
0% |
0% |
|
394 |
0% |
0% |
|
395 |
0% |
0% |
|
396 |
0% |
0% |
|
397 |
0% |
0% |
|
398 |
0% |
0% |
|
399 |
0% |
0% |
|
400 |
0% |
0% |
|
401 |
0% |
0% |
|
402 |
0% |
0% |
|
403 |
0% |
0% |
|
404 |
0% |
0% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
406 |
0% |
0% |
|
407 |
0% |
0% |
|
408 |
0% |
0% |
|
409 |
0% |
0% |
|
410 |
0% |
0% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
413 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
103 |
0% |
100% |
|
104 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
105 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
106 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
107 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
109 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
110 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
111 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
112 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
113 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
114 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
115 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
116 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
117 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
118 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
119 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
120 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
121 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
122 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
123 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
124 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
125 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
126 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
127 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
128 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
129 |
0% |
98% |
|
130 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
131 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
132 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
133 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
134 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
135 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
136 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
137 |
0.8% |
95% |
|
138 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
139 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
140 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
141 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
142 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
143 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
144 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
145 |
0.3% |
90% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
90% |
|
147 |
0% |
90% |
|
148 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
90% |
|
150 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
151 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
152 |
1.3% |
89% |
|
153 |
3% |
87% |
|
154 |
0.7% |
85% |
|
155 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
156 |
0.2% |
84% |
|
157 |
0.5% |
83% |
|
158 |
1.0% |
83% |
|
159 |
1.2% |
82% |
|
160 |
1.0% |
81% |
|
161 |
1.3% |
80% |
|
162 |
1.3% |
78% |
|
163 |
0.5% |
77% |
|
164 |
0.5% |
77% |
|
165 |
0.5% |
76% |
|
166 |
2% |
76% |
|
167 |
4% |
73% |
|
168 |
3% |
69% |
|
169 |
2% |
66% |
|
170 |
1.4% |
64% |
|
171 |
2% |
62% |
|
172 |
0.3% |
61% |
|
173 |
2% |
60% |
|
174 |
7% |
58% |
|
175 |
5% |
52% |
Median |
176 |
0.4% |
47% |
|
177 |
2% |
46% |
|
178 |
3% |
44% |
|
179 |
3% |
41% |
|
180 |
3% |
38% |
|
181 |
1.1% |
36% |
|
182 |
0.3% |
35% |
|
183 |
7% |
34% |
|
184 |
0.3% |
27% |
|
185 |
4% |
27% |
|
186 |
1.4% |
23% |
|
187 |
0.5% |
21% |
|
188 |
0.2% |
21% |
|
189 |
0.6% |
21% |
|
190 |
1.4% |
20% |
|
191 |
0.7% |
19% |
|
192 |
2% |
18% |
|
193 |
0.4% |
17% |
|
194 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
195 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
196 |
3% |
15% |
|
197 |
2% |
12% |
|
198 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
199 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
200 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
201 |
2% |
7% |
|
202 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
203 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
204 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
205 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
206 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
207 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
208 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
209 |
0% |
2% |
|
210 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
211 |
0% |
2% |
|
212 |
0% |
2% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
214 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
215 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
216 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
217 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
218 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
219 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
220 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
221 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
222 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
224 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
225 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
226 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
227 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
228 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
229 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
230 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
231 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
232 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
233 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
79 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
80 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
81 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
82 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
83 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
84 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
85 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
86 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
87 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
88 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
89 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
90 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
91 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
92 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
93 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
94 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
97 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
98 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
99 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
100 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
101 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
103 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
104 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
106 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
109 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
110 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
111 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
112 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
114 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
115 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
116 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
118 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
119 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
120 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
121 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
122 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
123 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
124 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
125 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
126 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
127 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
128 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
129 |
0.4% |
90% |
|
130 |
0.9% |
90% |
|
131 |
0.4% |
89% |
|
132 |
0.5% |
88% |
|
133 |
0.2% |
88% |
|
134 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
135 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
136 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
137 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
138 |
2% |
85% |
|
139 |
0.4% |
83% |
|
140 |
0.4% |
83% |
|
141 |
1.1% |
82% |
|
142 |
1.0% |
81% |
|
143 |
0.3% |
80% |
|
144 |
1.1% |
80% |
|
145 |
1.4% |
79% |
|
146 |
0.7% |
78% |
|
147 |
0.9% |
77% |
|
148 |
2% |
76% |
|
149 |
2% |
74% |
|
150 |
0.4% |
72% |
|
151 |
3% |
72% |
|
152 |
2% |
69% |
|
153 |
2% |
67% |
|
154 |
1.4% |
65% |
|
155 |
3% |
64% |
|
156 |
0.8% |
61% |
|
157 |
1.4% |
60% |
|
158 |
2% |
59% |
|
159 |
2% |
56% |
|
160 |
2% |
54% |
|
161 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
162 |
3% |
49% |
|
163 |
3% |
45% |
|
164 |
2% |
42% |
|
165 |
0.9% |
41% |
|
166 |
2% |
40% |
|
167 |
1.1% |
38% |
|
168 |
3% |
37% |
|
169 |
2% |
34% |
|
170 |
3% |
32% |
|
171 |
3% |
29% |
|
172 |
1.4% |
26% |
|
173 |
1.0% |
25% |
|
174 |
2% |
24% |
|
175 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
176 |
0.7% |
21% |
|
177 |
0.7% |
21% |
|
178 |
1.1% |
20% |
|
179 |
0.8% |
19% |
|
180 |
1.0% |
18% |
|
181 |
1.3% |
17% |
|
182 |
1.0% |
16% |
|
183 |
2% |
15% |
|
184 |
2% |
13% |
|
185 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
186 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
187 |
1.0% |
11% |
|
188 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
189 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
190 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
191 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
192 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
193 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
194 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
195 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
196 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
197 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
198 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
199 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
200 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
201 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
202 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
204 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
205 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
208 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
209 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
210 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
211 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
212 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
214 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
215 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
216 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
217 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
218 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
219 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
220 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
221 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
222 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
223 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
224 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
225 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
226 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
227 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
74 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
75 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
76 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
77 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
78 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
79 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
80 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
81 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
82 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
83 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
84 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
85 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
86 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
87 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
88 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
93 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
94 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
97 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
98 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
99 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
101 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
103 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
104 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
105 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
106 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
107 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
109 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
110 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
111 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
112 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
113 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
114 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
115 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
116 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
117 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
119 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
120 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
121 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
122 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
123 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
124 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
125 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
126 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
127 |
0.3% |
88% |
|
128 |
0.3% |
88% |
|
129 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
130 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
131 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
132 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
133 |
1.5% |
85% |
|
134 |
0.6% |
83% |
|
135 |
0.6% |
83% |
|
136 |
1.1% |
82% |
|
137 |
0.8% |
81% |
|
138 |
0.4% |
80% |
|
139 |
1.0% |
80% |
|
140 |
1.4% |
79% |
|
141 |
0.8% |
77% |
|
142 |
1.0% |
77% |
|
143 |
1.3% |
76% |
|
144 |
2% |
74% |
|
145 |
0.7% |
73% |
|
146 |
3% |
72% |
|
147 |
2% |
69% |
|
148 |
2% |
67% |
|
149 |
2% |
65% |
|
150 |
2% |
63% |
|
151 |
0.8% |
61% |
|
152 |
1.3% |
60% |
|
153 |
3% |
59% |
|
154 |
2% |
56% |
|
155 |
2% |
54% |
|
156 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
157 |
3% |
49% |
|
158 |
3% |
46% |
|
159 |
1.3% |
42% |
|
160 |
2% |
41% |
|
161 |
2% |
39% |
|
162 |
1.1% |
38% |
|
163 |
3% |
37% |
|
164 |
2% |
34% |
|
165 |
3% |
32% |
|
166 |
3% |
29% |
|
167 |
1.3% |
26% |
|
168 |
1.0% |
25% |
|
169 |
2% |
24% |
|
170 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
171 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
172 |
0.6% |
21% |
|
173 |
1.3% |
20% |
|
174 |
0.8% |
19% |
|
175 |
1.2% |
18% |
|
176 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
177 |
0.9% |
16% |
|
178 |
1.5% |
15% |
|
179 |
1.5% |
13% |
|
180 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
181 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
182 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
183 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
184 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
185 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
186 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
187 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
188 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
189 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
190 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
191 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
192 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
193 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
194 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
195 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
196 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
197 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
199 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
200 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
204 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
208 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
209 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
210 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
211 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
212 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
213 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
214 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
215 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
216 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
217 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
218 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
219 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
220 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
221 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
222 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos MORI
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 943
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.37%