Opinion Poll by Norstat, 10–12 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party	Last Result	Poll Result	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party	32.1%	45.0%	42.9–47.2%	42.3–47.8%	41.8–48.3%	40.8–49.3%
Conservative Party	43.6%	23.0%	21.3–24.9%	20.8–25.4%	20.4–25.9%	19.6–26.8%
Liberal Democrats	11.5%	12.1%	10.8–13.6%	10.5–14.0%	10.2–14.4%	9.6–15.2%
Brexit Party	2.0%	8.1%	7.1–9.4%	6.8–9.8%	6.5–10.1%	6.1–10.8%
Green Party	2.8%	5.2%	4.3–6.2%	4.1–6.6%	3.9–6.8%	3.6–7.4%
Scottish National Party	3.9%	3.3%	2.7–4.2%	2.5–4.5%	2.3–4.7%	2.0–5.2%
Plaid Cymru	0.5%	1.1%	0.8–1.7%	0.7–1.9%	0.6–2.0%	0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party	Last Result	Median	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party	202	394	363–432	355–440	348–446	336–460
Conservative Party	365	120	82–155	73–163	67–168	54–181
Liberal Democrats	11	50	38–61	35–65	32–68	26–72
Brexit Party	0	19	12–22	7–24	5–26	4–28
Green Party	1	1	1–3	1–3	1–3	1–3
Scottish National Party	48	40	29–51	24–54	21–55	17–57
Plaid Cymru	4	5	5–6	4–6	4–7	3–9

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
202	0%	100%	Last Result
203	0%	100%
204	0%	100%
205	0%	100%
206	0%	100%
207	0%	100%
208	0%	100%
209	0%	100%
210	0%	100%
211	0%	100%
212	0%	100%
213	0%	100%
214	0%	100%
215	0%	100%
216	0%	100%
217	0%	100%
218	0%	100%
219	0%	100%
220	0%	100%
221	0%	100%
222	0%	100%
223	0%	100%
224	0%	100%
225	0%	100%
226	0%	100%
227	0%	100%
228	0%	100%
229	0%	100%
230	0%	100%
231	0%	100%
232	0%	100%
233	0%	100%
234	0%	100%
235	0%	100%
236	0%	100%
237	0%	100%
238	0%	100%
239	0%	100%
240	0%	100%
241	0%	100%
242	0%	100%
243	0%	100%
244	0%	100%
245	0%	100%
246	0%	100%
247	0%	100%
248	0%	100%
249	0%	100%
250	0%	100%
251	0%	100%
252	0%	100%
253	0%	100%
254	0%	100%
255	0%	100%
256	0%	100%
257	0%	100%
258	0%	100%
259	0%	100%
260	0%	100%
261	0%	100%
262	0%	100%
263	0%	100%
264	0%	100%
265	0%	100%
266	0%	100%
267	0%	100%
268	0%	100%
269	0%	100%
270	0%	100%
271	0%	100%
272	0%	100%
273	0%	100%
274	0%	100%
275	0%	100%
276	0%	100%
277	0%	100%
278	0%	100%
279	0%	100%
280	0%	100%
281	0%	100%
282	0%	100%
283	0%	100%
284	0%	100%
285	0%	100%
286	0%	100%
287	0%	100%
288	0%	100%
289	0%	100%
290	0%	100%
291	0%	100%
292	0%	100%
293	0%	100%
294	0%	100%
295	0%	100%
296	0%	100%
297	0%	100%
298	0%	100%
299	0%	100%
300	0%	100%
301	0%	100%
302	0%	100%
303	0%	100%
304	0%	100%
305	0%	100%
306	0%	100%
307	0%	100%
308	0%	100%
309	0%	100%
310	0%	100%
311	0%	100%
312	0%	100%
313	0%	100%
314	0%	100%
315	0%	100%
316	0%	100%
317	0%	100%
318	0%	100%
319	0%	100%
320	0%	100%
321	0%	100%
322	0%	99.9%
323	0%	99.9%
324	0%	99.9%
325	0%	99.9%
326	0%	99.9%	Majority
327	0%	99.9%
328	0%	99.9%
329	0%	99.9%
330	0%	99.8%
331	0%	99.8%
332	0.1%	99.8%
333	0%	99.7%
334	0.1%	99.7%
335	0.1%	99.7%
336	0.1%	99.6%
337	0.1%	99.5%
338	0.1%	99.4%
339	0.1%	99.3%
340	0.1%	99.2%
341	0.1%	99.1%
342	0.1%	99.0%
343	0.1%	98.9%
344	0.3%	98.8%
345	0.2%	98.5%
346	0.1%	98%
347	0.4%	98%
348	0.4%	98%
349	0.3%	97%
350	0.4%	97%
351	0.2%	97%
352	0.3%	96%
353	0.5%	96%
354	0.3%	96%
355	0.5%	95%
356	0.7%	95%
357	0.3%	94%
358	0.5%	94%
359	0.7%	93%
360	0.5%	93%
361	1.2%	92%
362	0.4%	91%
363	0.5%	90%
364	0.5%	90%
365	0.8%	89%
366	0.8%	89%
367	1.2%	88%
368	0.3%	87%
369	1.0%	86%
370	0.8%	85%
371	1.3%	84%
372	1.2%	83%
373	2%	82%
374	1.0%	80%
375	2%	79%
376	1.0%	77%
377	2%	76%
378	2%	75%
379	1.2%	73%
380	1.2%	72%
381	1.1%	71%
382	3%	70%
383	1.0%	67%
384	2%	66%
385	1.2%	64%
386	3%	63%
387	2%	60%
388	2%	59%
389	1.4%	57%
390	2%	56%
391	0.8%	54%
392	2%	53%
393	0.9%	51%
394	1.2%	51%	Median
395	2%	49%
396	1.3%	48%
397	1.4%	46%
398	0.9%	45%
399	1.4%	44%
400	1.1%	43%
401	2%	42%
402	2%	40%
403	0.7%	38%
404	2%	37%
405	1.0%	36%
406	2%	35%
407	0.4%	33%
408	2%	33%
409	0.8%	31%
410	0.5%	30%
411	0.3%	30%
412	0.9%	29%
413	0.2%	28%
414	0.7%	28%
415	0.9%	27%
416	2%	27%
417	0.5%	25%
418	2%	24%
419	0.6%	22%
420	0.5%	21%
421	2%	21%
422	1.3%	19%
423	1.3%	18%
424	2%	17%
425	0.6%	15%
426	0.3%	14%
427	1.3%	14%
428	0.6%	12%
429	0.5%	12%
430	0.4%	11%
431	0.8%	11%
432	0.8%	10%
433	0.8%	9%
434	1.0%	8%
435	0.4%	7%
436	0.8%	7%
437	0.5%	6%
438	0.3%	6%
439	0.4%	5%
440	0.3%	5%
441	0.6%	5%
442	0.4%	4%
443	0.5%	4%
444	0.2%	3%
445	0.2%	3%
446	0.3%	3%
447	0.4%	2%
448	0.3%	2%
449	0.2%	2%
450	0.2%	2%
451	0.2%	1.5%
452	0.2%	1.3%
453	0.1%	1.1%
454	0.1%	1.0%
455	0.1%	0.9%
456	0.1%	0.9%
457	0.1%	0.8%
458	0.1%	0.7%
459	0.1%	0.7%
460	0.1%	0.5%
461	0.1%	0.5%
462	0.1%	0.4%
463	0%	0.3%
464	0%	0.3%
465	0%	0.2%
466	0%	0.2%
467	0%	0.2%
468	0%	0.2%
469	0%	0.1%
470	0%	0.1%
471	0%	0.1%
472	0%	0.1%
473	0%	0.1%
474	0%	0.1%
475	0%	0.1%
476	0%	0%

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
40	0%	100%
41	0%	99.9%
42	0%	99.9%
43	0%	99.9%
44	0%	99.9%
45	0%	99.9%
46	0%	99.9%
47	0%	99.9%
48	0%	99.8%
49	0%	99.8%
50	0%	99.7%
51	0.1%	99.7%
52	0%	99.6%
53	0.1%	99.6%
54	0.1%	99.5%
55	0%	99.4%
56	0.1%	99.4%
57	0.1%	99.3%
58	0.1%	99.2%
59	0.2%	99.0%
60	0.1%	98.9%
61	0.2%	98.7%
62	0.3%	98.6%
63	0.2%	98%
64	0.1%	98%
65	0.2%	98%
66	0.1%	98%
67	0.3%	98%
68	0.1%	97%
69	0.4%	97%
70	0.4%	97%
71	0.2%	97%
72	1.1%	96%
73	0.8%	95%
74	0.3%	95%
75	0.6%	94%
76	0.7%	94%
77	0.2%	93%
78	0.3%	93%
79	0.7%	92%
80	0.6%	92%
81	0.2%	91%
82	1.3%	91%
83	0.6%	90%
84	1.1%	89%
85	0.9%	88%
86	1.1%	87%
87	1.4%	86%
88	1.1%	85%
89	0.8%	83%
90	0.8%	83%
91	0.6%	82%
92	0.6%	81%
93	0.4%	81%
94	2%	80%
95	0.8%	78%
96	0.8%	77%
97	0.7%	77%
98	2%	76%
99	0.5%	74%
100	0.9%	73%
101	1.5%	72%
102	1.0%	71%
103	0.8%	70%
104	1.4%	69%
105	1.1%	68%
106	0.6%	66%
107	0.8%	66%
108	2%	65%
109	0.7%	63%
110	0.9%	62%
111	1.3%	61%
112	0.5%	60%
113	0.9%	60%
114	1.1%	59%
115	0.7%	58%
116	2%	57%
117	2%	55%
118	0.7%	53%
119	2%	53%
120	2%	51%	Median
121	1.2%	49%
122	0.7%	48%
123	1.2%	47%
124	0.9%	46%
125	0.7%	45%
126	0.9%	44%
127	1.1%	44%
128	0.8%	42%
129	1.1%	42%
130	2%	41%
131	2%	39%
132	3%	37%
133	2%	34%
134	0.9%	32%
135	0.9%	31%
136	1.1%	30%
137	0.8%	29%
138	0.9%	28%
139	1.2%	27%
140	1.4%	26%
141	1.1%	24%
142	1.1%	23%
143	1.3%	22%
144	0.7%	21%
145	1.5%	20%
146	1.1%	19%
147	0.9%	18%
148	0.6%	17%
149	0.7%	16%
150	0.6%	15%
151	0.9%	15%
152	2%	14%
153	0.7%	12%
154	1.2%	11%
155	2%	10%
156	0.3%	9%
157	0.9%	8%
158	0.5%	8%
159	0.8%	7%
160	0.5%	6%
161	0.4%	6%
162	0.3%	5%
163	0.3%	5%
164	0.5%	5%
165	0.5%	4%
166	0.5%	4%
167	0.3%	3%
168	0.4%	3%
169	0.3%	2%
170	0.2%	2%
171	0.2%	2%
172	0.2%	2%
173	0.1%	2%
174	0.2%	1.4%
175	0.1%	1.3%
176	0.1%	1.1%
177	0.3%	1.0%
178	0.1%	0.7%
179	0.1%	0.7%
180	0.1%	0.6%
181	0.1%	0.5%
182	0%	0.5%
183	0%	0.4%
184	0%	0.4%
185	0%	0.3%
186	0%	0.3%
187	0%	0.3%
188	0%	0.3%
189	0%	0.2%
190	0%	0.2%
191	0%	0.2%
192	0%	0.2%
193	0%	0.2%
194	0%	0.1%
195	0%	0.1%
196	0%	0.1%
197	0%	0.1%
198	0%	0.1%
199	0%	0.1%
200	0%	0%
201	0%	0%
202	0%	0%
203	0%	0%
204	0%	0%
205	0%	0%
206	0%	0%
207	0%	0%
208	0%	0%
209	0%	0%
210	0%	0%
211	0%	0%
212	0%	0%
213	0%	0%
214	0%	0%
215	0%	0%
216	0%	0%
217	0%	0%
218	0%	0%
219	0%	0%
220	0%	0%
221	0%	0%
222	0%	0%
223	0%	0%
224	0%	0%
225	0%	0%
226	0%	0%
227	0%	0%
228	0%	0%
229	0%	0%
230	0%	0%
231	0%	0%
232	0%	0%
233	0%	0%
234	0%	0%
235	0%	0%
236	0%	0%
237	0%	0%
238	0%	0%
239	0%	0%
240	0%	0%
241	0%	0%
242	0%	0%
243	0%	0%
244	0%	0%
245	0%	0%
246	0%	0%
247	0%	0%
248	0%	0%
249	0%	0%
250	0%	0%
251	0%	0%
252	0%	0%
253	0%	0%
254	0%	0%
255	0%	0%
256	0%	0%
257	0%	0%
258	0%	0%
259	0%	0%
260	0%	0%
261	0%	0%
262	0%	0%
263	0%	0%
264	0%	0%
265	0%	0%
266	0%	0%
267	0%	0%
268	0%	0%
269	0%	0%
270	0%	0%
271	0%	0%
272	0%	0%
273	0%	0%
274	0%	0%
275	0%	0%
276	0%	0%
277	0%	0%
278	0%	0%
279	0%	0%
280	0%	0%
281	0%	0%
282	0%	0%
283	0%	0%
284	0%	0%
285	0%	0%
286	0%	0%
287	0%	0%
288	0%	0%
289	0%	0%
290	0%	0%
291	0%	0%
292	0%	0%
293	0%	0%
294	0%	0%
295	0%	0%
296	0%	0%
297	0%	0%
298	0%	0%
299	0%	0%
300	0%	0%
301	0%	0%
302	0%	0%
303	0%	0%
304	0%	0%
305	0%	0%
306	0%	0%
307	0%	0%
308	0%	0%
309	0%	0%
310	0%	0%
311	0%	0%
312	0%	0%
313	0%	0%
314	0%	0%
315	0%	0%
316	0%	0%
317	0%	0%
318	0%	0%
319	0%	0%
320	0%	0%
321	0%	0%
322	0%	0%
323	0%	0%
324	0%	0%
325	0%	0%
326	0%	0%	Majority
327	0%	0%
328	0%	0%
329	0%	0%
330	0%	0%
331	0%	0%
332	0%	0%
333	0%	0%
334	0%	0%
335	0%	0%
336	0%	0%
337	0%	0%
338	0%	0%
339	0%	0%
340	0%	0%
341	0%	0%
342	0%	0%
343	0%	0%
344	0%	0%
345	0%	0%
346	0%	0%
347	0%	0%
348	0%	0%
349	0%	0%
350	0%	0%
351	0%	0%
352	0%	0%
353	0%	0%
354	0%	0%
355	0%	0%
356	0%	0%
357	0%	0%
358	0%	0%
359	0%	0%
360	0%	0%
361	0%	0%
362	0%	0%
363	0%	0%
364	0%	0%
365	0%	0%	Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
11	0%	100%	Last Result
12	0%	100%
13	0%	100%
14	0%	100%
15	0%	100%
16	0%	100%
17	0%	100%
18	0%	100%
19	0%	100%
20	0%	100%
21	0%	100%
22	0.1%	99.9%
23	0.1%	99.9%
24	0.1%	99.8%
25	0.1%	99.7%
26	0.2%	99.6%
27	0.3%	99.4%
28	0.3%	99.2%
29	0.2%	98.9%
30	0.3%	98.6%
31	0.4%	98%
32	0.5%	98%
33	0.6%	97%
34	1.0%	97%
35	1.0%	96%
36	1.2%	95%
37	2%	94%
38	3%	91%
39	3%	88%
40	5%	85%
41	3%	80%
42	2%	77%
43	4%	74%
44	3%	70%
45	1.4%	68%
46	2%	67%
47	4%	65%
48	3%	61%
49	3%	58%
50	7%	56%	Median
51	11%	49%
52	10%	38%
53	2%	29%
54	3%	26%
55	3%	23%
56	1.5%	20%
57	2%	19%
58	1.2%	17%
59	3%	16%
60	2%	13%
61	2%	11%
62	2%	9%
63	2%	7%
64	0.3%	5%
65	1.2%	5%
66	0.8%	4%
67	0.2%	3%
68	0.7%	3%
69	0.2%	2%
70	0.7%	2%
71	0.3%	1.2%
72	0.4%	0.9%
73	0.2%	0.5%
74	0.1%	0.3%
75	0.1%	0.2%
76	0.1%	0.1%
77	0%	0%

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	0%	100%	Last Result
1	0%	100%
2	0%	100%
3	0.1%	100%
4	2%	99.9%
5	1.4%	98%
6	1.4%	97%
7	1.3%	96%
8	0.2%	94%
9	0.1%	94%
10	1.1%	94%
11	1.3%	93%
12	4%	92%
13	4%	88%
14	5%	84%
15	0.8%	80%
16	5%	79%
17	3%	74%
18	7%	71%
19	17%	64%	Median
20	25%	48%
21	13%	23%
22	2%	10%
23	3%	8%
24	1.1%	6%
25	1.2%	5%
26	2%	3%
27	0.1%	1.3%
28	0.7%	1.2%
29	0%	0.5%
30	0.1%	0.5%
31	0.3%	0.4%
32	0%	0.1%
33	0%	0.1%
34	0%	0.1%
35	0%	0%

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
1	61%	100%	Last Result, Median
2	23%	39%
3	16%	16%
4	0%	0%

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
12	0%	100%
13	0%	99.9%
14	0.1%	99.9%
15	0.2%	99.9%
16	0.1%	99.7%
17	0.3%	99.6%
18	0.3%	99.3%
19	0.3%	98.9%
20	0.3%	98.6%
21	0.9%	98%
22	1.3%	97%
23	0.4%	96%
24	0.8%	96%
25	1.1%	95%
26	1.4%	94%
27	1.2%	93%
28	0.4%	91%
29	2%	91%
30	0.8%	89%
31	0.3%	88%
32	2%	88%
33	0.4%	86%
34	11%	85%
35	0.1%	75%
36	9%	74%
37	0.9%	65%
38	9%	64%
39	3%	55%
40	4%	52%	Median
41	13%	48%
42	1.4%	35%
43	7%	34%
44	0.9%	28%
45	3%	27%
46	1.2%	23%
47	1.3%	22%
48	3%	21%	Last Result
49	3%	18%
50	3%	15%
51	3%	12%
52	2%	9%
53	1.5%	7%
54	2%	6%
55	2%	4%
56	0.9%	2%
57	0.6%	0.9%
58	0.4%	0.4%
59	0%	0%

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
2	0.1%	100%
3	1.1%	99.9%
4	6%	98.9%	Last Result
5	75%	93%	Median
6	14%	18%
7	4%	5%
8	0%	0.6%
9	0.1%	0.5%
10	0.3%	0.5%
11	0%	0.1%
12	0.1%	0.1%
13	0%	0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition	Last Result	Median	Majority?	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru	266	490	100%	455–529	448–538	441–546	429–560
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru	265	488	100%	454–527	446–537	440–544	427–559
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party	261	483	100%	449–522	441–531	434–539	422–554
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru	217	448	100%	412–491	403–501	395–509	380–523
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats	213	443	100%	407–486	398–495	390–504	375–518
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru	254	441	100%	410–472	405–478	401–484	387–501
Labour Party – Scottish National Party	250	436	100%	405–467	400–473	395–479	382–496
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru	206	399	100%	369–437	361–444	353–451	342–465
Labour Party	202	394	99.9%	363–432	355–440	348–446	336–460
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru	417	166	0%	124–201	115–211	107–219	93–234
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party	413	161	0%	119–196	110–205	102–213	88–228
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats	376	167	0%	139–198	133–203	129–207	110–221
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru	369	125	0%	87–160	78–168	72–174	59–186
Conservative Party	365	120	0%	82–155	73–163	67–168	54–181

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
266	0%	100%	Last Result
267	0%	100%
268	0%	100%
269	0%	100%
270	0%	100%
271	0%	100%
272	0%	100%
273	0%	100%
274	0%	100%
275	0%	100%
276	0%	100%
277	0%	100%
278	0%	100%
279	0%	100%
280	0%	100%
281	0%	100%
282	0%	100%
283	0%	100%
284	0%	100%
285	0%	100%
286	0%	100%
287	0%	100%
288	0%	100%
289	0%	100%
290	0%	100%
291	0%	100%
292	0%	100%
293	0%	100%
294	0%	100%
295	0%	100%
296	0%	100%
297	0%	100%
298	0%	100%
299	0%	100%
300	0%	100%
301	0%	100%
302	0%	100%
303	0%	100%
304	0%	100%
305	0%	100%
306	0%	100%
307	0%	100%
308	0%	100%
309	0%	100%
310	0%	100%
311	0%	100%
312	0%	100%
313	0%	100%
314	0%	100%
315	0%	100%
316	0%	100%
317	0%	100%
318	0%	100%
319	0%	100%
320	0%	100%
321	0%	100%
322	0%	100%
323	0%	100%
324	0%	100%
325	0%	100%
326	0%	100%	Majority
327	0%	100%
328	0%	100%
329	0%	100%
330	0%	100%
331	0%	100%
332	0%	100%
333	0%	100%
334	0%	100%
335	0%	100%
336	0%	100%
337	0%	100%
338	0%	100%
339	0%	100%
340	0%	100%
341	0%	100%
342	0%	100%
343	0%	100%
344	0%	100%
345	0%	100%
346	0%	100%
347	0%	100%
348	0%	100%
349	0%	100%
350	0%	100%
351	0%	100%
352	0%	100%
353	0%	100%
354	0%	100%
355	0%	100%
356	0%	100%
357	0%	100%
358	0%	100%
359	0%	100%
360	0%	100%
361	0%	100%
362	0%	100%
363	0%	100%
364	0%	100%
365	0%	100%
366	0%	100%
367	0%	100%
368	0%	100%
369	0%	100%
370	0%	100%
371	0%	100%
372	0%	100%
373	0%	100%
374	0%	100%
375	0%	100%
376	0%	100%
377	0%	100%
378	0%	100%
379	0%	100%
380	0%	100%
381	0%	100%
382	0%	100%
383	0%	100%
384	0%	100%
385	0%	100%
386	0%	100%
387	0%	100%
388	0%	100%
389	0%	100%
390	0%	100%
391	0%	100%
392	0%	100%
393	0%	100%
394	0%	100%
395	0%	100%
396	0%	100%
397	0%	100%
398	0%	100%
399	0%	100%
400	0%	100%
401	0%	100%
402	0%	100%
403	0%	100%
404	0%	100%
405	0%	100%
406	0%	100%
407	0%	100%
408	0%	100%
409	0%	99.9%
410	0%	99.9%
411	0%	99.9%
412	0%	99.9%
413	0%	99.9%
414	0%	99.9%
415	0%	99.9%
416	0%	99.9%
417	0%	99.8%
418	0%	99.8%
419	0%	99.8%
420	0%	99.8%
421	0%	99.8%
422	0%	99.7%
423	0%	99.7%
424	0%	99.7%
425	0%	99.7%
426	0%	99.6%
427	0%	99.6%
428	0%	99.6%
429	0.1%	99.5%
430	0.1%	99.4%
431	0.1%	99.3%
432	0.1%	99.2%
433	0.1%	99.1%
434	0.1%	99.0%
435	0.2%	98.9%
436	0.2%	98.7%
437	0.2%	98%
438	0.2%	98%
439	0.2%	98%
440	0.2%	98%
441	0.4%	98%
442	0.4%	97%
443	0.1%	97%
444	0.8%	97%
445	0.4%	96%
446	0.3%	96%
447	0.4%	95%
448	0.3%	95%
449	0.3%	95%
450	0.4%	94%
451	0.9%	94%
452	0.3%	93%
453	0.6%	93%
454	2%	92%
455	1.2%	91%
456	0.3%	89%
457	1.0%	89%
458	1.2%	88%
459	0.4%	87%
460	0.9%	87%
461	0.6%	86%
462	1.3%	85%
463	0.9%	84%
464	1.0%	83%
465	0.9%	82%
466	1.3%	81%
467	1.1%	80%
468	1.1%	78%
469	0.7%	77%
470	2%	77%
471	0.8%	75%
472	0.4%	74%
473	1.4%	74%
474	0.7%	72%
475	1.5%	71%
476	1.2%	70%
477	1.3%	69%
478	3%	67%
479	3%	64%
480	2%	62%
481	0.9%	60%
482	2%	59%
483	0.7%	58%
484	0.7%	57%
485	0.9%	56%
486	0.8%	55%
487	1.1%	54%
488	1.1%	53%
489	2%	52%
490	1.0%	50%	Median
491	1.3%	49%
492	1.3%	48%
493	0.5%	47%
494	2%	46%
495	1.1%	44%
496	1.3%	43%
497	0.6%	42%
498	1.4%	41%
499	1.0%	40%
500	1.3%	39%
501	0.5%	38%
502	0.9%	37%
503	1.0%	36%
504	1.2%	35%
505	2%	34%
506	1.3%	33%
507	0.6%	31%
508	0.6%	31%
509	1.1%	30%
510	2%	29%
511	1.0%	27%
512	0.4%	26%
513	1.1%	26%
514	2%	25%
515	2%	23%
516	0.8%	21%
517	0.5%	21%
518	0.5%	20%
519	0.8%	19%
520	0.9%	19%
521	0.6%	18%
522	1.1%	17%
523	0.7%	16%
524	1.2%	15%
525	1.3%	14%
526	1.2%	13%
527	0.5%	12%
528	1.2%	11%
529	0.7%	10%
530	0.3%	9%
531	0.5%	9%
532	0.3%	9%
533	0.3%	8%
534	0.2%	8%
535	0.6%	8%
536	1.0%	7%
537	0.6%	6%
538	0.8%	6%
539	0.5%	5%
540	0.2%	4%
541	0.4%	4%
542	0.4%	4%
543	0.3%	3%
544	0.2%	3%
545	0.1%	3%
546	0.3%	3%
547	0.2%	2%
548	0.1%	2%
549	0.3%	2%
550	0.2%	2%
551	0.2%	1.5%
552	0.2%	1.3%
553	0.1%	1.1%
554	0.1%	1.1%
555	0.1%	1.0%
556	0.1%	0.9%
557	0.1%	0.8%
558	0.1%	0.7%
559	0.1%	0.7%
560	0.1%	0.6%
561	0.1%	0.5%
562	0.1%	0.4%
563	0%	0.3%
564	0%	0.3%
565	0%	0.3%
566	0%	0.2%
567	0%	0.2%
568	0%	0.2%
569	0%	0.1%
570	0%	0.1%
571	0%	0.1%
572	0%	0.1%
573	0%	0.1%
574	0%	0.1%
575	0%	0.1%
576	0%	0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
265	0%	100%	Last Result
266	0%	100%
267	0%	100%
268	0%	100%
269	0%	100%
270	0%	100%
271	0%	100%
272	0%	100%
273	0%	100%
274	0%	100%
275	0%	100%
276	0%	100%
277	0%	100%
278	0%	100%
279	0%	100%
280	0%	100%
281	0%	100%
282	0%	100%
283	0%	100%
284	0%	100%
285	0%	100%
286	0%	100%
287	0%	100%
288	0%	100%
289	0%	100%
290	0%	100%
291	0%	100%
292	0%	100%
293	0%	100%
294	0%	100%
295	0%	100%
296	0%	100%
297	0%	100%
298	0%	100%
299	0%	100%
300	0%	100%
301	0%	100%
302	0%	100%
303	0%	100%
304	0%	100%
305	0%	100%
306	0%	100%
307	0%	100%
308	0%	100%
309	0%	100%
310	0%	100%
311	0%	100%
312	0%	100%
313	0%	100%
314	0%	100%
315	0%	100%
316	0%	100%
317	0%	100%
318	0%	100%
319	0%	100%
320	0%	100%
321	0%	100%
322	0%	100%
323	0%	100%
324	0%	100%
325	0%	100%
326	0%	100%	Majority
327	0%	100%
328	0%	100%
329	0%	100%
330	0%	100%
331	0%	100%
332	0%	100%
333	0%	100%
334	0%	100%
335	0%	100%
336	0%	100%
337	0%	100%
338	0%	100%
339	0%	100%
340	0%	100%
341	0%	100%
342	0%	100%
343	0%	100%
344	0%	100%
345	0%	100%
346	0%	100%
347	0%	100%
348	0%	100%
349	0%	100%
350	0%	100%
351	0%	100%
352	0%	100%
353	0%	100%
354	0%	100%
355	0%	100%
356	0%	100%
357	0%	100%
358	0%	100%
359	0%	100%
360	0%	100%
361	0%	100%
362	0%	100%
363	0%	100%
364	0%	100%
365	0%	100%
366	0%	100%
367	0%	100%
368	0%	100%
369	0%	100%
370	0%	100%
371	0%	100%
372	0%	100%
373	0%	100%
374	0%	100%
375	0%	100%
376	0%	100%
377	0%	100%
378	0%	100%
379	0%	100%
380	0%	100%
381	0%	100%
382	0%	100%
383	0%	100%
384	0%	100%
385	0%	100%
386	0%	100%
387	0%	100%
388	0%	100%
389	0%	100%
390	0%	100%
391	0%	100%
392	0%	100%
393	0%	100%
394	0%	100%
395	0%	100%
396	0%	100%
397	0%	100%
398	0%	100%
399	0%	100%
400	0%	100%
401	0%	100%
402	0%	100%
403	0%	100%
404	0%	100%
405	0%	100%
406	0%	100%
407	0%	100%
408	0%	99.9%
409	0%	99.9%
410	0%	99.9%
411	0%	99.9%
412	0%	99.9%
413	0%	99.9%
414	0%	99.9%
415	0%	99.9%
416	0%	99.8%
417	0%	99.8%
418	0%	99.8%
419	0%	99.8%
420	0%	99.8%
421	0%	99.7%
422	0%	99.7%
423	0%	99.7%
424	0%	99.7%
425	0%	99.6%
426	0%	99.6%
427	0.1%	99.5%
428	0.1%	99.5%
429	0.1%	99.4%
430	0.1%	99.3%
431	0.1%	99.2%
432	0.2%	99.1%
433	0.2%	98.9%
434	0.2%	98.8%
435	0.2%	98.6%
436	0.2%	98%
437	0.2%	98%
438	0.2%	98%
439	0.3%	98%
440	0.3%	98%
441	0.5%	97%
442	0.1%	97%
443	0.7%	97%
444	0.5%	96%
445	0.3%	96%
446	0.3%	95%
447	0.3%	95%
448	0.3%	95%
449	0.4%	94%
450	0.9%	94%
451	0.4%	93%
452	0.9%	93%
453	1.2%	92%
454	1.3%	91%
455	0.6%	89%
456	1.2%	89%
457	0.9%	87%
458	0.3%	87%
459	0.8%	86%
460	0.7%	85%
461	1.4%	85%
462	0.7%	83%
463	1.2%	83%
464	1.0%	82%
465	1.2%	80%
466	1.2%	79%
467	1.2%	78%
468	0.8%	77%
469	2%	76%
470	0.7%	74%
471	0.4%	74%
472	2%	73%
473	0.8%	72%
474	1.5%	71%
475	2%	69%
476	2%	68%
477	2%	66%
478	2%	64%
479	2%	61%
480	1.1%	59%
481	1.3%	58%
482	0.8%	57%
483	0.7%	56%
484	1.0%	56%
485	1.0%	55%
486	0.9%	54%
487	1.0%	53%
488	2%	52%
489	1.1%	49%	Median
490	2%	48%
491	0.6%	47%
492	1.4%	46%
493	1.2%	45%
494	0.8%	44%
495	1.1%	43%
496	0.8%	42%
497	1.1%	41%
498	1.0%	40%
499	1.5%	39%
500	0.5%	37%
501	1.1%	37%
502	2%	36%
503	1.0%	33%
504	0.6%	33%
505	0.9%	32%
506	0.4%	31%
507	0.7%	31%
508	1.2%	30%
509	2%	29%
510	0.7%	27%
511	0.4%	26%
512	3%	26%
513	0.4%	23%
514	2%	22%
515	0.5%	21%
516	0.4%	20%
517	0.6%	20%
518	1.3%	19%
519	0.5%	18%
520	0.6%	17%
521	1.2%	17%
522	1.0%	16%
523	1.4%	15%
524	0.7%	13%
525	0.9%	12%
526	0.5%	12%
527	1.4%	11%
528	0.6%	10%
529	0.3%	9%
530	0.2%	9%
531	0.3%	8%
532	0.2%	8%
533	0.3%	8%
534	1.3%	8%
535	0.6%	6%
536	0.6%	6%
537	0.5%	5%
538	0.5%	4%
539	0.4%	4%
540	0.3%	4%
541	0.2%	3%
542	0.3%	3%
543	0.2%	3%
544	0.2%	3%
545	0.2%	2%
546	0.2%	2%
547	0.1%	2%
548	0.3%	2%
549	0.2%	2%
550	0.2%	1.4%
551	0.1%	1.2%
552	0.1%	1.1%
553	0.1%	1.0%
554	0.1%	0.9%
555	0.1%	0.8%
556	0.1%	0.8%
557	0.1%	0.7%
558	0.1%	0.6%
559	0.1%	0.5%
560	0.1%	0.4%
561	0%	0.3%
562	0%	0.3%
563	0%	0.3%
564	0%	0.2%
565	0%	0.2%
566	0%	0.2%
567	0%	0.2%
568	0%	0.1%
569	0%	0.1%
570	0%	0.1%
571	0%	0.1%
572	0%	0.1%
573	0%	0.1%
574	0%	0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
261	0%	100%	Last Result
262	0%	100%
263	0%	100%
264	0%	100%
265	0%	100%
266	0%	100%
267	0%	100%
268	0%	100%
269	0%	100%
270	0%	100%
271	0%	100%
272	0%	100%
273	0%	100%
274	0%	100%
275	0%	100%
276	0%	100%
277	0%	100%
278	0%	100%
279	0%	100%
280	0%	100%
281	0%	100%
282	0%	100%
283	0%	100%
284	0%	100%
285	0%	100%
286	0%	100%
287	0%	100%
288	0%	100%
289	0%	100%
290	0%	100%
291	0%	100%
292	0%	100%
293	0%	100%
294	0%	100%
295	0%	100%
296	0%	100%
297	0%	100%
298	0%	100%
299	0%	100%
300	0%	100%
301	0%	100%
302	0%	100%
303	0%	100%
304	0%	100%
305	0%	100%
306	0%	100%
307	0%	100%
308	0%	100%
309	0%	100%
310	0%	100%
311	0%	100%
312	0%	100%
313	0%	100%
314	0%	100%
315	0%	100%
316	0%	100%
317	0%	100%
318	0%	100%
319	0%	100%
320	0%	100%
321	0%	100%
322	0%	100%
323	0%	100%
324	0%	100%
325	0%	100%
326	0%	100%	Majority
327	0%	100%
328	0%	100%
329	0%	100%
330	0%	100%
331	0%	100%
332	0%	100%
333	0%	100%
334	0%	100%
335	0%	100%
336	0%	100%
337	0%	100%
338	0%	100%
339	0%	100%
340	0%	100%
341	0%	100%
342	0%	100%
343	0%	100%
344	0%	100%
345	0%	100%
346	0%	100%
347	0%	100%
348	0%	100%
349	0%	100%
350	0%	100%
351	0%	100%
352	0%	100%
353	0%	100%
354	0%	100%
355	0%	100%
356	0%	100%
357	0%	100%
358	0%	100%
359	0%	100%
360	0%	100%
361	0%	100%
362	0%	100%
363	0%	100%
364	0%	100%
365	0%	100%
366	0%	100%
367	0%	100%
368	0%	100%
369	0%	100%
370	0%	100%
371	0%	100%
372	0%	100%
373	0%	100%
374	0%	100%
375	0%	100%
376	0%	100%
377	0%	100%
378	0%	100%
379	0%	100%
380	0%	100%
381	0%	100%
382	0%	100%
383	0%	100%
384	0%	100%
385	0%	100%
386	0%	100%
387	0%	100%
388	0%	100%
389	0%	100%
390	0%	100%
391	0%	100%
392	0%	100%
393	0%	100%
394	0%	100%
395	0%	100%
396	0%	100%
397	0%	100%
398	0%	100%
399	0%	100%
400	0%	100%
401	0%	100%
402	0%	100%
403	0%	99.9%
404	0%	99.9%
405	0%	99.9%
406	0%	99.9%
407	0%	99.9%
408	0%	99.9%
409	0%	99.9%
410	0%	99.8%
411	0%	99.8%
412	0%	99.8%
413	0%	99.8%
414	0%	99.8%
415	0%	99.7%
416	0%	99.7%
417	0%	99.7%
418	0%	99.7%
419	0%	99.6%
420	0%	99.6%
421	0%	99.6%
422	0.1%	99.5%
423	0.1%	99.5%
424	0.1%	99.4%
425	0.1%	99.3%
426	0.1%	99.2%
427	0.2%	99.0%
428	0.2%	98.9%
429	0.2%	98.7%
430	0.2%	98.5%
431	0.2%	98%
432	0.1%	98%
433	0.3%	98%
434	0.2%	98%
435	0.3%	97%
436	0.5%	97%
437	0.3%	97%
438	0.6%	96%
439	0.4%	96%
440	0.4%	95%
441	0.3%	95%
442	0.3%	95%
443	0.3%	94%
444	0.3%	94%
445	1.0%	94%
446	0.5%	93%
447	0.9%	92%
448	1.1%	92%
449	1.3%	90%
450	1.0%	89%
451	0.7%	88%
452	0.8%	87%
453	0.4%	87%
454	0.8%	86%
455	0.9%	85%
456	1.1%	84%
457	0.8%	83%
458	1.4%	83%
459	1.1%	81%
460	0.9%	80%
461	1.3%	79%
462	1.2%	78%
463	0.8%	77%
464	2%	76%
465	0.7%	74%
466	0.5%	74%
467	2%	73%
468	0.8%	72%
469	2%	71%
470	2%	69%
471	1.5%	68%
472	3%	66%
473	3%	63%
474	2%	61%
475	1.0%	59%
476	1.2%	58%
477	0.9%	57%
478	0.7%	56%
479	0.9%	55%
480	1.3%	54%
481	0.8%	53%
482	0.8%	52%
483	2%	52%
484	1.1%	49%	Median
485	1.5%	48%
486	0.7%	47%
487	2%	46%
488	1.2%	44%
489	0.7%	43%
490	1.1%	43%
491	0.8%	41%
492	1.2%	41%
493	0.8%	39%
494	2%	39%
495	0.8%	37%
496	1.0%	36%
497	2%	35%
498	1.0%	33%
499	0.5%	32%
500	1.0%	32%
501	0.4%	31%
502	0.6%	30%
503	1.2%	30%
504	2%	29%
505	0.6%	27%
506	0.7%	26%
507	2%	25%
508	0.9%	23%
509	1.5%	22%
510	0.6%	21%
511	0.3%	20%
512	0.5%	20%
513	1.4%	19%
514	0.4%	18%
515	0.7%	17%
516	1.2%	17%
517	1.0%	15%
518	0.9%	14%
519	1.0%	13%
520	0.9%	12%
521	0.5%	11%
522	1.3%	11%
523	0.5%	10%
524	0.5%	9%
525	0.2%	9%
526	0.3%	8%
527	0.2%	8%
528	0.3%	8%
529	1.3%	8%
530	0.6%	6%
531	0.7%	6%
532	0.5%	5%
533	0.5%	4%
534	0.3%	4%
535	0.3%	4%
536	0.2%	3%
537	0.3%	3%
538	0.1%	3%
539	0.2%	3%
540	0.2%	2%
541	0.2%	2%
542	0.2%	2%
543	0.2%	2%
544	0.2%	2%
545	0.2%	1.4%
546	0.1%	1.2%
547	0.1%	1.1%
548	0.2%	1.0%
549	0%	0.9%
550	0.1%	0.8%
551	0.1%	0.8%
552	0.1%	0.7%
553	0.1%	0.6%
554	0.1%	0.5%
555	0.1%	0.4%
556	0.1%	0.4%
557	0%	0.3%
558	0%	0.3%
559	0%	0.2%
560	0%	0.2%
561	0%	0.2%
562	0%	0.2%
563	0%	0.1%
564	0%	0.1%
565	0%	0.1%
566	0%	0.1%
567	0%	0.1%
568	0%	0.1%
569	0%	0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
217	0%	100%	Last Result
218	0%	100%
219	0%	100%
220	0%	100%
221	0%	100%
222	0%	100%
223	0%	100%
224	0%	100%
225	0%	100%
226	0%	100%
227	0%	100%
228	0%	100%
229	0%	100%
230	0%	100%
231	0%	100%
232	0%	100%
233	0%	100%
234	0%	100%
235	0%	100%
236	0%	100%
237	0%	100%
238	0%	100%
239	0%	100%
240	0%	100%
241	0%	100%
242	0%	100%
243	0%	100%
244	0%	100%
245	0%	100%
246	0%	100%
247	0%	100%
248	0%	100%
249	0%	100%
250	0%	100%
251	0%	100%
252	0%	100%
253	0%	100%
254	0%	100%
255	0%	100%
256	0%	100%
257	0%	100%
258	0%	100%
259	0%	100%
260	0%	100%
261	0%	100%
262	0%	100%
263	0%	100%
264	0%	100%
265	0%	100%
266	0%	100%
267	0%	100%
268	0%	100%
269	0%	100%
270	0%	100%
271	0%	100%
272	0%	100%
273	0%	100%
274	0%	100%
275	0%	100%
276	0%	100%
277	0%	100%
278	0%	100%
279	0%	100%
280	0%	100%
281	0%	100%
282	0%	100%
283	0%	100%
284	0%	100%
285	0%	100%
286	0%	100%
287	0%	100%
288	0%	100%
289	0%	100%
290	0%	100%
291	0%	100%
292	0%	100%
293	0%	100%
294	0%	100%
295	0%	100%
296	0%	100%
297	0%	100%
298	0%	100%
299	0%	100%
300	0%	100%
301	0%	100%
302	0%	100%
303	0%	100%
304	0%	100%
305	0%	100%
306	0%	100%
307	0%	100%
308	0%	100%
309	0%	100%
310	0%	100%
311	0%	100%
312	0%	100%
313	0%	100%
314	0%	100%
315	0%	100%
316	0%	100%
317	0%	100%
318	0%	100%
319	0%	100%
320	0%	100%
321	0%	100%
322	0%	100%
323	0%	100%
324	0%	100%
325	0%	100%
326	0%	100%	Majority
327	0%	100%
328	0%	100%
329	0%	100%
330	0%	100%
331	0%	100%
332	0%	100%
333	0%	100%
334	0%	100%
335	0%	100%
336	0%	100%
337	0%	100%
338	0%	100%
339	0%	100%
340	0%	100%
341	0%	100%
342	0%	100%
343	0%	100%
344	0%	100%
345	0%	100%
346	0%	100%
347	0%	100%
348	0%	100%
349	0%	100%
350	0%	100%
351	0%	100%
352	0%	100%
353	0%	100%
354	0%	100%
355	0%	100%
356	0%	100%
357	0%	100%
358	0%	100%
359	0%	100%
360	0%	100%
361	0%	100%
362	0%	100%
363	0%	100%
364	0%	99.9%
365	0%	99.9%
366	0%	99.9%
367	0%	99.9%
368	0%	99.9%
369	0%	99.9%
370	0%	99.9%
371	0%	99.9%
372	0%	99.8%
373	0%	99.8%
374	0%	99.8%
375	0%	99.8%
376	0.1%	99.7%
377	0%	99.7%
378	0.1%	99.6%
379	0%	99.6%
380	0.1%	99.5%
381	0.1%	99.5%
382	0.1%	99.4%
383	0.1%	99.3%
384	0.1%	99.2%
385	0.1%	99.1%
386	0.1%	98.9%
387	0%	98.8%
388	0.1%	98.8%
389	0.1%	98.7%
390	0.1%	98.6%
391	0.2%	98.5%
392	0.2%	98%
393	0.1%	98%
394	0.2%	98%
395	0.3%	98%
396	0.4%	97%
397	0.3%	97%
398	0.3%	97%
399	0.1%	97%
400	0.5%	96%
401	0.3%	96%
402	0.4%	96%
403	0.3%	95%
404	0.4%	95%
405	0.8%	94%
406	0.4%	94%
407	0.4%	93%
408	0.7%	93%
409	0.5%	92%
410	0.3%	92%
411	1.1%	91%
412	0.8%	90%
413	0.7%	90%
414	1.0%	89%
415	0.3%	88%
416	0.6%	88%
417	0.8%	87%
418	0.4%	86%
419	0.7%	86%
420	1.2%	85%
421	0.9%	84%
422	0.7%	83%
423	1.1%	82%
424	1.2%	81%
425	1.5%	80%
426	1.3%	78%
427	0.8%	77%
428	0.9%	76%
429	1.4%	75%
430	1.2%	74%
431	1.2%	73%
432	1.3%	72%
433	2%	70%
434	1.2%	69%
435	1.1%	68%
436	1.1%	67%
437	0.7%	66%
438	1.1%	65%
439	2%	64%
440	1.2%	62%
441	1.5%	61%
442	2%	59%
443	2%	57%
444	2%	55%
445	1.3%	53%
446	0.8%	52%
447	0.6%	51%
448	0.8%	51%
449	1.3%	50%	Median
450	1.5%	49%
451	1.0%	47%
452	1.2%	46%
453	1.3%	45%
454	2%	44%
455	2%	42%
456	1.0%	40%
457	1.3%	39%
458	0.6%	38%
459	1.2%	37%
460	0.6%	36%
461	1.1%	36%
462	1.4%	34%
463	0.5%	33%
464	0.5%	32%
465	0.5%	32%
466	0.7%	32%
467	0.8%	31%
468	0.8%	30%
469	0.5%	29%
470	0.9%	29%
471	1.5%	28%
472	0.9%	26%
473	1.1%	26%
474	1.1%	24%
475	0.3%	23%
476	2%	23%
477	0.6%	21%
478	1.3%	21%
479	0.4%	19%
480	1.5%	19%
481	0.6%	17%
482	0.9%	17%
483	0.7%	16%
484	0.4%	15%
485	0.8%	15%
486	0.8%	14%
487	0.7%	13%
488	1.0%	13%
489	0.5%	12%
490	0.5%	11%
491	0.8%	11%
492	0.3%	10%
493	0.7%	9%
494	0.7%	9%
495	0.4%	8%
496	0.5%	8%
497	0.8%	7%
498	0.7%	6%
499	0.2%	6%
500	0.3%	5%
501	0.3%	5%
502	0.2%	5%
503	0.2%	5%
504	0.5%	4%
505	0.2%	4%
506	0.4%	4%
507	0.2%	3%
508	0.2%	3%
509	0.3%	3%
510	0.5%	2%
511	0.2%	2%
512	0.1%	2%
513	0.1%	2%
514	0.2%	2%
515	0.2%	1.3%
516	0.1%	1.2%
517	0.1%	1.1%
518	0.1%	1.0%
519	0.1%	0.9%
520	0.1%	0.9%
521	0.1%	0.8%
522	0.1%	0.7%
523	0.1%	0.6%
524	0.1%	0.5%
525	0%	0.4%
526	0%	0.4%
527	0%	0.3%
528	0%	0.3%
529	0%	0.3%
530	0%	0.2%
531	0%	0.2%
532	0%	0.2%
533	0%	0.2%
534	0%	0.1%
535	0%	0.1%
536	0%	0.1%
537	0%	0.1%
538	0%	0.1%
539	0%	0.1%
540	0%	0.1%
541	0%	0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
213	0%	100%	Last Result
214	0%	100%
215	0%	100%
216	0%	100%
217	0%	100%
218	0%	100%
219	0%	100%
220	0%	100%
221	0%	100%
222	0%	100%
223	0%	100%
224	0%	100%
225	0%	100%
226	0%	100%
227	0%	100%
228	0%	100%
229	0%	100%
230	0%	100%
231	0%	100%
232	0%	100%
233	0%	100%
234	0%	100%
235	0%	100%
236	0%	100%
237	0%	100%
238	0%	100%
239	0%	100%
240	0%	100%
241	0%	100%
242	0%	100%
243	0%	100%
244	0%	100%
245	0%	100%
246	0%	100%
247	0%	100%
248	0%	100%
249	0%	100%
250	0%	100%
251	0%	100%
252	0%	100%
253	0%	100%
254	0%	100%
255	0%	100%
256	0%	100%
257	0%	100%
258	0%	100%
259	0%	100%
260	0%	100%
261	0%	100%
262	0%	100%
263	0%	100%
264	0%	100%
265	0%	100%
266	0%	100%
267	0%	100%
268	0%	100%
269	0%	100%
270	0%	100%
271	0%	100%
272	0%	100%
273	0%	100%
274	0%	100%
275	0%	100%
276	0%	100%
277	0%	100%
278	0%	100%
279	0%	100%
280	0%	100%
281	0%	100%
282	0%	100%
283	0%	100%
284	0%	100%
285	0%	100%
286	0%	100%
287	0%	100%
288	0%	100%
289	0%	100%
290	0%	100%
291	0%	100%
292	0%	100%
293	0%	100%
294	0%	100%
295	0%	100%
296	0%	100%
297	0%	100%
298	0%	100%
299	0%	100%
300	0%	100%
301	0%	100%
302	0%	100%
303	0%	100%
304	0%	100%
305	0%	100%
306	0%	100%
307	0%	100%
308	0%	100%
309	0%	100%
310	0%	100%
311	0%	100%
312	0%	100%
313	0%	100%
314	0%	100%
315	0%	100%
316	0%	100%
317	0%	100%
318	0%	100%
319	0%	100%
320	0%	100%
321	0%	100%
322	0%	100%
323	0%	100%
324	0%	100%
325	0%	100%
326	0%	100%	Majority
327	0%	100%
328	0%	100%
329	0%	100%
330	0%	100%
331	0%	100%
332	0%	100%
333	0%	100%
334	0%	100%
335	0%	100%
336	0%	100%
337	0%	100%
338	0%	100%
339	0%	100%
340	0%	100%
341	0%	100%
342	0%	100%
343	0%	100%
344	0%	100%
345	0%	100%
346	0%	100%
347	0%	100%
348	0%	100%
349	0%	100%
350	0%	100%
351	0%	100%
352	0%	100%
353	0%	100%
354	0%	100%
355	0%	100%
356	0%	100%
357	0%	100%
358	0%	99.9%
359	0%	99.9%
360	0%	99.9%
361	0%	99.9%
362	0%	99.9%
363	0%	99.9%
364	0%	99.9%
365	0%	99.9%
366	0%	99.9%
367	0%	99.8%
368	0%	99.8%
369	0%	99.8%
370	0%	99.7%
371	0%	99.7%
372	0%	99.7%
373	0.1%	99.6%
374	0%	99.5%
375	0.1%	99.5%
376	0.1%	99.4%
377	0.1%	99.3%
378	0.1%	99.3%
379	0.1%	99.2%
380	0.1%	99.0%
381	0.1%	98.9%
382	0%	98.8%
383	0.1%	98.8%
384	0.1%	98.7%
385	0.1%	98.6%
386	0.2%	98%
387	0.2%	98%
388	0.1%	98%
389	0.3%	98%
390	0.3%	98%
391	0.4%	97%
392	0.3%	97%
393	0.2%	97%
394	0.2%	96%
395	0.4%	96%
396	0.3%	96%
397	0.4%	95%
398	0.3%	95%
399	0.5%	95%
400	0.6%	94%
401	0.6%	94%
402	0.2%	93%
403	0.7%	93%
404	0.4%	92%
405	0.4%	92%
406	1.2%	91%
407	0.7%	90%
408	0.6%	89%
409	1.1%	89%
410	0.4%	88%
411	0.6%	87%
412	0.7%	87%
413	0.5%	86%
414	1.3%	86%
415	0.6%	84%
416	0.9%	84%
417	0.7%	83%
418	1.2%	82%
419	1.3%	81%
420	1.3%	80%
421	1.3%	78%
422	0.6%	77%
423	1.0%	76%
424	2%	75%
425	1.1%	74%
426	2%	73%
427	0.8%	71%
428	1.5%	70%
429	2%	69%
430	0.8%	67%
431	1.0%	66%
432	1.2%	65%
433	0.9%	64%
434	2%	63%
435	1.3%	62%
436	2%	60%
437	2%	59%
438	2%	57%
439	2%	55%
440	1.0%	53%
441	0.9%	52%
442	0.6%	51%
443	0.8%	50%
444	1.3%	50%	Median
445	2%	48%
446	0.7%	47%
447	1.4%	46%
448	1.4%	44%
449	2%	43%
450	1.3%	41%
451	0.9%	40%
452	1.3%	39%
453	0.5%	38%
454	1.3%	37%
455	0.6%	36%
456	1.3%	35%
457	1.2%	34%
458	0.6%	33%
459	0.5%	32%
460	0.5%	32%
461	0.6%	31%
462	0.6%	31%
463	0.9%	30%
464	0.5%	29%
465	0.8%	29%
466	1.3%	28%
467	1.1%	27%
468	1.5%	25%
469	0.7%	24%
470	0.3%	23%
471	2%	23%
472	1.0%	21%
473	1.2%	20%
474	0.3%	19%
475	2%	19%
476	0.5%	17%
477	0.5%	17%
478	1.0%	16%
479	0.5%	15%
480	0.5%	15%
481	1.0%	14%
482	0.8%	13%
483	0.8%	12%
484	0.6%	12%
485	0.5%	11%
486	0.9%	10%
487	0.2%	10%
488	0.6%	9%
489	0.7%	9%
490	0.5%	8%
491	0.5%	8%
492	0.7%	7%
493	0.7%	6%
494	0.4%	6%
495	0.3%	5%
496	0.2%	5%
497	0.2%	5%
498	0.3%	5%
499	0.6%	4%
500	0.1%	4%
501	0.5%	4%
502	0.2%	3%
503	0.2%	3%
504	0.3%	3%
505	0.5%	2%
506	0.1%	2%
507	0.1%	2%
508	0.1%	2%
509	0.2%	2%
510	0.2%	1.4%
511	0.1%	1.2%
512	0.1%	1.1%
513	0.1%	1.0%
514	0.1%	0.9%
515	0.1%	0.8%
516	0.1%	0.8%
517	0.1%	0.7%
518	0.1%	0.6%
519	0.1%	0.5%
520	0.1%	0.4%
521	0%	0.3%
522	0%	0.3%
523	0%	0.3%
524	0%	0.3%
525	0%	0.2%
526	0%	0.2%
527	0%	0.2%
528	0%	0.2%
529	0%	0.1%
530	0%	0.1%
531	0%	0.1%
532	0%	0.1%
533	0%	0.1%
534	0%	0.1%
535	0%	0.1%
536	0%	0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
254	0%	100%	Last Result
255	0%	100%
256	0%	100%
257	0%	100%
258	0%	100%
259	0%	100%
260	0%	100%
261	0%	100%
262	0%	100%
263	0%	100%
264	0%	100%
265	0%	100%
266	0%	100%
267	0%	100%
268	0%	100%
269	0%	100%
270	0%	100%
271	0%	100%
272	0%	100%
273	0%	100%
274	0%	100%
275	0%	100%
276	0%	100%
277	0%	100%
278	0%	100%
279	0%	100%
280	0%	100%
281	0%	100%
282	0%	100%
283	0%	100%
284	0%	100%
285	0%	100%
286	0%	100%
287	0%	100%
288	0%	100%
289	0%	100%
290	0%	100%
291	0%	100%
292	0%	100%
293	0%	100%
294	0%	100%
295	0%	100%
296	0%	100%
297	0%	100%
298	0%	100%
299	0%	100%
300	0%	100%
301	0%	100%
302	0%	100%
303	0%	100%
304	0%	100%
305	0%	100%
306	0%	100%
307	0%	100%
308	0%	100%
309	0%	100%
310	0%	100%
311	0%	100%
312	0%	100%
313	0%	100%
314	0%	100%
315	0%	100%
316	0%	100%
317	0%	100%
318	0%	100%
319	0%	100%
320	0%	100%
321	0%	100%
322	0%	100%
323	0%	100%
324	0%	100%
325	0%	100%
326	0%	100%	Majority
327	0%	100%
328	0%	100%
329	0%	100%
330	0%	100%
331	0%	100%
332	0%	100%
333	0%	100%
334	0%	100%
335	0%	100%
336	0%	100%
337	0%	100%
338	0%	100%
339	0%	100%
340	0%	100%
341	0%	100%
342	0%	100%
343	0%	100%
344	0%	100%
345	0%	100%
346	0%	100%
347	0%	100%
348	0%	100%
349	0%	100%
350	0%	100%
351	0%	100%
352	0%	100%
353	0%	100%
354	0%	100%
355	0%	100%
356	0%	100%
357	0%	100%
358	0%	100%
359	0%	100%
360	0%	100%
361	0%	100%
362	0%	100%
363	0%	100%
364	0%	100%
365	0%	100%
366	0%	100%
367	0%	100%
368	0%	100%
369	0%	100%
370	0%	100%
371	0%	99.9%
372	0%	99.9%
373	0%	99.9%
374	0%	99.9%
375	0%	99.9%
376	0%	99.9%
377	0%	99.8%
378	0%	99.8%
379	0%	99.8%
380	0%	99.8%
381	0%	99.7%
382	0%	99.7%
383	0%	99.7%
384	0%	99.6%
385	0%	99.6%
386	0%	99.6%
387	0.1%	99.5%
388	0.1%	99.5%
389	0.1%	99.4%
390	0%	99.4%
391	0.1%	99.3%
392	0.1%	99.3%
393	0.1%	99.2%
394	0.1%	99.0%
395	0.1%	99.0%
396	0.2%	98.9%
397	0.2%	98.7%
398	0.3%	98.5%
399	0.3%	98%
400	0.4%	98%
401	0.5%	98%
402	0.5%	97%
403	0.6%	97%
404	0.6%	96%
405	0.7%	95%
406	0.9%	95%
407	1.1%	94%
408	0.5%	93%
409	1.4%	92%
410	1.0%	91%
411	0.7%	90%
412	0.4%	89%
413	1.4%	89%
414	1.4%	87%
415	0.7%	86%
416	2%	85%
417	2%	83%
418	2%	82%
419	1.2%	80%
420	2%	79%
421	2%	77%
422	2%	75%
423	2%	74%
424	1.0%	71%
425	2%	70%
426	2%	69%
427	3%	67%
428	0.6%	64%
429	0.9%	64%
430	1.2%	63%
431	0.9%	61%
432	0.7%	61%
433	0.8%	60%
434	1.4%	59%
435	0.9%	58%
436	2%	57%
437	1.2%	55%
438	1.2%	54%
439	1.0%	53%	Median
440	0.7%	52%
441	1.1%	51%
442	2%	50%
443	2%	48%
444	1.0%	46%
445	2%	45%
446	1.5%	43%
447	2%	42%
448	0.7%	40%
449	1.1%	39%
450	2%	38%
451	2%	36%
452	0.8%	34%
453	0.6%	34%
454	0.9%	33%
455	0.7%	32%
456	1.2%	32%
457	0.8%	30%
458	1.3%	30%
459	2%	28%
460	1.1%	27%
461	2%	26%
462	2%	24%
463	1.2%	22%
464	3%	21%
465	1.0%	18%
466	0.9%	17%
467	2%	16%
468	1.5%	14%
469	1.0%	13%
470	0.6%	12%
471	1.1%	11%
472	0.7%	10%
473	1.4%	9%
474	0.8%	8%
475	0.8%	7%
476	0.9%	6%
477	0.4%	6%
478	0.2%	5%
479	0.5%	5%
480	0.5%	4%
481	0.5%	4%
482	0.5%	3%
483	0.3%	3%
484	0.1%	3%
485	0.3%	2%
486	0.1%	2%
487	0.1%	2%
488	0.2%	2%
489	0.1%	2%
490	0.1%	2%
491	0.1%	2%
492	0.1%	1.4%
493	0.1%	1.3%
494	0.1%	1.2%
495	0.1%	1.1%
496	0.1%	1.0%
497	0.1%	1.0%
498	0.1%	0.8%
499	0.1%	0.7%
500	0.1%	0.6%
501	0.1%	0.6%
502	0.1%	0.5%
503	0%	0.4%
504	0.1%	0.4%
505	0.1%	0.3%
506	0%	0.3%
507	0%	0.2%
508	0%	0.2%
509	0%	0.2%
510	0%	0.1%
511	0%	0.1%
512	0%	0.1%
513	0%	0.1%
514	0%	0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
250	0%	100%	Last Result
251	0%	100%
252	0%	100%
253	0%	100%
254	0%	100%
255	0%	100%
256	0%	100%
257	0%	100%
258	0%	100%
259	0%	100%
260	0%	100%
261	0%	100%
262	0%	100%
263	0%	100%
264	0%	100%
265	0%	100%
266	0%	100%
267	0%	100%
268	0%	100%
269	0%	100%
270	0%	100%
271	0%	100%
272	0%	100%
273	0%	100%
274	0%	100%
275	0%	100%
276	0%	100%
277	0%	100%
278	0%	100%
279	0%	100%
280	0%	100%
281	0%	100%
282	0%	100%
283	0%	100%
284	0%	100%
285	0%	100%
286	0%	100%
287	0%	100%
288	0%	100%
289	0%	100%
290	0%	100%
291	0%	100%
292	0%	100%
293	0%	100%
294	0%	100%
295	0%	100%
296	0%	100%
297	0%	100%
298	0%	100%
299	0%	100%
300	0%	100%
301	0%	100%
302	0%	100%
303	0%	100%
304	0%	100%
305	0%	100%
306	0%	100%
307	0%	100%
308	0%	100%
309	0%	100%
310	0%	100%
311	0%	100%
312	0%	100%
313	0%	100%
314	0%	100%
315	0%	100%
316	0%	100%
317	0%	100%
318	0%	100%
319	0%	100%
320	0%	100%
321	0%	100%
322	0%	100%
323	0%	100%
324	0%	100%
325	0%	100%
326	0%	100%	Majority
327	0%	100%
328	0%	100%
329	0%	100%
330	0%	100%
331	0%	100%
332	0%	100%
333	0%	100%
334	0%	100%
335	0%	100%
336	0%	100%
337	0%	100%
338	0%	100%
339	0%	100%
340	0%	100%
341	0%	100%
342	0%	100%
343	0%	100%
344	0%	100%
345	0%	100%
346	0%	100%
347	0%	100%
348	0%	100%
349	0%	100%
350	0%	100%
351	0%	100%
352	0%	100%
353	0%	100%
354	0%	100%
355	0%	100%
356	0%	100%
357	0%	100%
358	0%	100%
359	0%	100%
360	0%	100%
361	0%	100%
362	0%	100%
363	0%	100%
364	0%	100%
365	0%	99.9%
366	0%	99.9%
367	0%	99.9%
368	0%	99.9%
369	0%	99.9%
370	0%	99.9%
371	0%	99.8%
372	0%	99.8%
373	0%	99.8%
374	0%	99.8%
375	0%	99.8%
376	0%	99.7%
377	0%	99.7%
378	0%	99.7%
379	0%	99.6%
380	0%	99.6%
381	0%	99.6%
382	0.1%	99.5%
383	0.1%	99.5%
384	0.1%	99.4%
385	0.1%	99.4%
386	0.1%	99.3%
387	0.1%	99.2%
388	0.1%	99.1%
389	0.1%	99.0%
390	0.1%	98.9%
391	0.2%	98.8%
392	0.3%	98.5%
393	0.3%	98%
394	0.3%	98%
395	0.4%	98%
396	0.5%	97%
397	0.5%	97%
398	0.7%	96%
399	0.6%	96%
400	0.5%	95%
401	0.9%	94%
402	1.1%	94%
403	0.8%	92%
404	1.3%	92%
405	0.9%	90%
406	0.4%	89%
407	0.8%	89%
408	1.0%	88%
409	1.3%	87%
410	0.8%	86%
411	2%	85%
412	2%	83%
413	2%	81%
414	2%	80%
415	1.3%	78%
416	2%	77%
417	1.5%	75%
418	2%	73%
419	0.9%	71%
420	2%	70%
421	2%	69%
422	2%	66%
423	0.7%	64%
424	1.0%	63%
425	1.2%	62%
426	1.0%	61%
427	0.6%	60%
428	0.9%	60%
429	1.4%	59%
430	1.3%	57%
431	1.1%	56%
432	1.3%	55%
433	1.2%	54%
434	0.7%	52%	Median
435	0.7%	52%
436	1.5%	51%
437	2%	49%
438	1.5%	47%
439	1.0%	46%
440	2%	45%
441	1.2%	43%
442	2%	42%
443	0.5%	40%
444	1.3%	40%
445	2%	38%
446	2%	36%
447	0.7%	34%
448	0.4%	34%
449	1.0%	33%
450	1.0%	32%
451	0.7%	31%
452	1.2%	30%
453	1.2%	29%
454	1.5%	28%
455	0.7%	26%
456	2%	26%
457	2%	24%
458	1.2%	22%
459	3%	21%
460	1.0%	18%
461	0.9%	17%
462	1.4%	16%
463	2%	15%
464	0.7%	13%
465	1.1%	12%
466	0.9%	11%
467	0.6%	10%
468	1.4%	10%
469	1.0%	8%
470	0.7%	7%
471	0.9%	6%
472	0.5%	6%
473	0.2%	5%
474	0.5%	5%
475	0.5%	4%
476	0.5%	4%
477	0.5%	3%
478	0.3%	3%
479	0.1%	3%
480	0.3%	2%
481	0.1%	2%
482	0.1%	2%
483	0.1%	2%
484	0.1%	2%
485	0.1%	2%
486	0.2%	2%
487	0.1%	1.4%
488	0.1%	1.3%
489	0.1%	1.2%
490	0.1%	1.1%
491	0.1%	1.0%
492	0.1%	0.9%
493	0.1%	0.8%
494	0%	0.7%
495	0.1%	0.6%
496	0.1%	0.5%
497	0.1%	0.5%
498	0%	0.4%
499	0.1%	0.4%
500	0.1%	0.3%
501	0%	0.3%
502	0%	0.2%
503	0%	0.2%
504	0%	0.2%
505	0%	0.1%
506	0%	0.1%
507	0%	0.1%
508	0%	0.1%
509	0%	0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
206	0%	100%	Last Result
207	0%	100%
208	0%	100%
209	0%	100%
210	0%	100%
211	0%	100%
212	0%	100%
213	0%	100%
214	0%	100%
215	0%	100%
216	0%	100%
217	0%	100%
218	0%	100%
219	0%	100%
220	0%	100%
221	0%	100%
222	0%	100%
223	0%	100%
224	0%	100%
225	0%	100%
226	0%	100%
227	0%	100%
228	0%	100%
229	0%	100%
230	0%	100%
231	0%	100%
232	0%	100%
233	0%	100%
234	0%	100%
235	0%	100%
236	0%	100%
237	0%	100%
238	0%	100%
239	0%	100%
240	0%	100%
241	0%	100%
242	0%	100%
243	0%	100%
244	0%	100%
245	0%	100%
246	0%	100%
247	0%	100%
248	0%	100%
249	0%	100%
250	0%	100%
251	0%	100%
252	0%	100%
253	0%	100%
254	0%	100%
255	0%	100%
256	0%	100%
257	0%	100%
258	0%	100%
259	0%	100%
260	0%	100%
261	0%	100%
262	0%	100%
263	0%	100%
264	0%	100%
265	0%	100%
266	0%	100%
267	0%	100%
268	0%	100%
269	0%	100%
270	0%	100%
271	0%	100%
272	0%	100%
273	0%	100%
274	0%	100%
275	0%	100%
276	0%	100%
277	0%	100%
278	0%	100%
279	0%	100%
280	0%	100%
281	0%	100%
282	0%	100%
283	0%	100%
284	0%	100%
285	0%	100%
286	0%	100%
287	0%	100%
288	0%	100%
289	0%	100%
290	0%	100%
291	0%	100%
292	0%	100%
293	0%	100%
294	0%	100%
295	0%	100%
296	0%	100%
297	0%	100%
298	0%	100%
299	0%	100%
300	0%	100%
301	0%	100%
302	0%	100%
303	0%	100%
304	0%	100%
305	0%	100%
306	0%	100%
307	0%	100%
308	0%	100%
309	0%	100%
310	0%	100%
311	0%	100%
312	0%	100%
313	0%	100%
314	0%	100%
315	0%	100%
316	0%	100%
317	0%	100%
318	0%	100%
319	0%	100%
320	0%	100%
321	0%	100%
322	0%	100%
323	0%	100%
324	0%	100%
325	0%	100%
326	0%	100%	Majority
327	0%	99.9%
328	0%	99.9%
329	0%	99.9%
330	0%	99.9%
331	0%	99.9%
332	0%	99.9%
333	0%	99.9%
334	0%	99.9%
335	0%	99.9%
336	0%	99.8%
337	0%	99.8%
338	0%	99.8%
339	0%	99.7%
340	0.1%	99.7%
341	0.1%	99.6%
342	0.1%	99.5%
343	0.1%	99.5%
344	0.1%	99.4%
345	0.1%	99.2%
346	0.1%	99.2%
347	0.1%	99.0%
348	0.1%	98.9%
349	0.2%	98.8%
350	0.3%	98.6%
351	0.1%	98%
352	0.4%	98%
353	0.3%	98%
354	0.4%	97%
355	0.3%	97%
356	0.3%	97%
357	0.3%	97%
358	0.6%	96%
359	0.3%	96%
360	0.3%	95%
361	1.0%	95%
362	0.4%	94%
363	0.5%	94%
364	0.6%	93%
365	0.5%	93%
366	1.1%	92%
367	0.3%	91%
368	0.6%	91%
369	0.6%	90%
370	0.6%	90%
371	0.8%	89%
372	1.1%	88%
373	0.5%	87%
374	1.0%	87%
375	1.1%	85%
376	0.7%	84%
377	2%	84%
378	2%	82%
379	0.8%	80%
380	2%	80%
381	1.1%	78%
382	1.4%	77%
383	2%	75%
384	1.4%	73%
385	1.1%	72%
386	1.4%	71%
387	3%	70%
388	1.1%	67%
389	2%	66%
390	1.3%	65%
391	2%	63%
392	2%	61%
393	2%	59%
394	1.3%	57%
395	1.1%	56%
396	2%	55%
397	1.1%	53%
398	1.1%	52%
399	1.2%	51%	Median
400	2%	50%
401	1.1%	48%
402	2%	47%
403	1.0%	45%
404	1.2%	44%
405	1.2%	43%
406	1.3%	42%
407	2%	40%
408	1.0%	38%
409	1.4%	37%
410	1.1%	36%
411	2%	35%
412	0.7%	33%
413	2%	33%
414	0.7%	31%
415	0.7%	30%
416	0.4%	30%
417	0.7%	29%
418	0.5%	29%
419	0.8%	28%
420	0.5%	27%
421	2%	27%
422	0.6%	25%
423	2%	24%
424	0.9%	22%
425	0.3%	21%
426	2%	21%
427	0.8%	19%
428	2%	18%
429	2%	17%
430	0.6%	15%
431	0.3%	14%
432	1.2%	14%
433	0.7%	13%
434	0.6%	12%
435	0.4%	11%
436	0.8%	11%
437	0.8%	10%
438	0.7%	9%
439	1.1%	8%
440	0.3%	7%
441	0.8%	7%
442	0.4%	6%
443	0.4%	6%
444	0.4%	5%
445	0.2%	5%
446	0.6%	5%
447	0.4%	4%
448	0.5%	4%
449	0.2%	3%
450	0.2%	3%
451	0.3%	3%
452	0.3%	2%
453	0.2%	2%
454	0.3%	2%
455	0.2%	2%
456	0.2%	2%
457	0.2%	1.3%
458	0.1%	1.1%
459	0.1%	1.0%
460	0.1%	0.9%
461	0.1%	0.9%
462	0.1%	0.8%
463	0.1%	0.7%
464	0.1%	0.6%
465	0.1%	0.5%
466	0.1%	0.5%
467	0%	0.4%
468	0%	0.3%
469	0%	0.3%
470	0%	0.3%
471	0%	0.2%
472	0%	0.2%
473	0%	0.2%
474	0%	0.1%
475	0%	0.1%
476	0%	0.1%
477	0%	0.1%
478	0%	0.1%
479	0%	0.1%
480	0%	0.1%
481	0%	0%

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
202	0%	100%	Last Result
203	0%	100%
204	0%	100%
205	0%	100%
206	0%	100%
207	0%	100%
208	0%	100%
209	0%	100%
210	0%	100%
211	0%	100%
212	0%	100%
213	0%	100%
214	0%	100%
215	0%	100%
216	0%	100%
217	0%	100%
218	0%	100%
219	0%	100%
220	0%	100%
221	0%	100%
222	0%	100%
223	0%	100%
224	0%	100%
225	0%	100%
226	0%	100%
227	0%	100%
228	0%	100%
229	0%	100%
230	0%	100%
231	0%	100%
232	0%	100%
233	0%	100%
234	0%	100%
235	0%	100%
236	0%	100%
237	0%	100%
238	0%	100%
239	0%	100%
240	0%	100%
241	0%	100%
242	0%	100%
243	0%	100%
244	0%	100%
245	0%	100%
246	0%	100%
247	0%	100%
248	0%	100%
249	0%	100%
250	0%	100%
251	0%	100%
252	0%	100%
253	0%	100%
254	0%	100%
255	0%	100%
256	0%	100%
257	0%	100%
258	0%	100%
259	0%	100%
260	0%	100%
261	0%	100%
262	0%	100%
263	0%	100%
264	0%	100%
265	0%	100%
266	0%	100%
267	0%	100%
268	0%	100%
269	0%	100%
270	0%	100%
271	0%	100%
272	0%	100%
273	0%	100%
274	0%	100%
275	0%	100%
276	0%	100%
277	0%	100%
278	0%	100%
279	0%	100%
280	0%	100%
281	0%	100%
282	0%	100%
283	0%	100%
284	0%	100%
285	0%	100%
286	0%	100%
287	0%	100%
288	0%	100%
289	0%	100%
290	0%	100%
291	0%	100%
292	0%	100%
293	0%	100%
294	0%	100%
295	0%	100%
296	0%	100%
297	0%	100%
298	0%	100%
299	0%	100%
300	0%	100%
301	0%	100%
302	0%	100%
303	0%	100%
304	0%	100%
305	0%	100%
306	0%	100%
307	0%	100%
308	0%	100%
309	0%	100%
310	0%	100%
311	0%	100%
312	0%	100%
313	0%	100%
314	0%	100%
315	0%	100%
316	0%	100%
317	0%	100%
318	0%	100%
319	0%	100%
320	0%	100%
321	0%	100%
322	0%	99.9%
323	0%	99.9%
324	0%	99.9%
325	0%	99.9%
326	0%	99.9%	Majority
327	0%	99.9%
328	0%	99.9%
329	0%	99.9%
330	0%	99.8%
331	0%	99.8%
332	0.1%	99.8%
333	0%	99.7%
334	0.1%	99.7%
335	0.1%	99.7%
336	0.1%	99.6%
337	0.1%	99.5%
338	0.1%	99.4%
339	0.1%	99.3%
340	0.1%	99.2%
341	0.1%	99.1%
342	0.1%	99.0%
343	0.1%	98.9%
344	0.3%	98.8%
345	0.2%	98.5%
346	0.1%	98%
347	0.4%	98%
348	0.4%	98%
349	0.3%	97%
350	0.4%	97%
351	0.2%	97%
352	0.3%	96%
353	0.5%	96%
354	0.3%	96%
355	0.5%	95%
356	0.7%	95%
357	0.3%	94%
358	0.5%	94%
359	0.7%	93%
360	0.5%	93%
361	1.2%	92%
362	0.4%	91%
363	0.5%	90%
364	0.5%	90%
365	0.8%	89%
366	0.8%	89%
367	1.2%	88%
368	0.3%	87%
369	1.0%	86%
370	0.8%	85%
371	1.3%	84%
372	1.2%	83%
373	2%	82%
374	1.0%	80%
375	2%	79%
376	1.0%	77%
377	2%	76%
378	2%	75%
379	1.2%	73%
380	1.2%	72%
381	1.1%	71%
382	3%	70%
383	1.0%	67%
384	2%	66%
385	1.2%	64%
386	3%	63%
387	2%	60%
388	2%	59%
389	1.4%	57%
390	2%	56%
391	0.8%	54%
392	2%	53%
393	0.9%	51%
394	1.2%	51%	Median
395	2%	49%
396	1.3%	48%
397	1.4%	46%
398	0.9%	45%
399	1.4%	44%
400	1.1%	43%
401	2%	42%
402	2%	40%
403	0.7%	38%
404	2%	37%
405	1.0%	36%
406	2%	35%
407	0.4%	33%
408	2%	33%
409	0.8%	31%
410	0.5%	30%
411	0.3%	30%
412	0.9%	29%
413	0.2%	28%
414	0.7%	28%
415	0.9%	27%
416	2%	27%
417	0.5%	25%
418	2%	24%
419	0.6%	22%
420	0.5%	21%
421	2%	21%
422	1.3%	19%
423	1.3%	18%
424	2%	17%
425	0.6%	15%
426	0.3%	14%
427	1.3%	14%
428	0.6%	12%
429	0.5%	12%
430	0.4%	11%
431	0.8%	11%
432	0.8%	10%
433	0.8%	9%
434	1.0%	8%
435	0.4%	7%
436	0.8%	7%
437	0.5%	6%
438	0.3%	6%
439	0.4%	5%
440	0.3%	5%
441	0.6%	5%
442	0.4%	4%
443	0.5%	4%
444	0.2%	3%
445	0.2%	3%
446	0.3%	3%
447	0.4%	2%
448	0.3%	2%
449	0.2%	2%
450	0.2%	2%
451	0.2%	1.5%
452	0.2%	1.3%
453	0.1%	1.1%
454	0.1%	1.0%
455	0.1%	0.9%
456	0.1%	0.9%
457	0.1%	0.8%
458	0.1%	0.7%
459	0.1%	0.7%
460	0.1%	0.5%
461	0.1%	0.5%
462	0.1%	0.4%
463	0%	0.3%
464	0%	0.3%
465	0%	0.2%
466	0%	0.2%
467	0%	0.2%
468	0%	0.2%
469	0%	0.1%
470	0%	0.1%
471	0%	0.1%
472	0%	0.1%
473	0%	0.1%
474	0%	0.1%
475	0%	0.1%
476	0%	0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
79	0%	100%
80	0%	99.9%
81	0%	99.9%
82	0%	99.9%
83	0%	99.9%
84	0%	99.9%
85	0%	99.9%
86	0%	99.8%
87	0%	99.8%
88	0%	99.8%
89	0.1%	99.8%
90	0%	99.7%
91	0.1%	99.7%
92	0.1%	99.6%
93	0%	99.5%
94	0%	99.5%
95	0.1%	99.5%
96	0.1%	99.4%
97	0.1%	99.3%
98	0.1%	99.2%
99	0.2%	99.1%
100	0.1%	98.9%
101	0.2%	98.8%
102	0.2%	98.7%
103	0.2%	98%
104	0.3%	98%
105	0.1%	98%
106	0.2%	98%
107	0.3%	98%
108	0.1%	97%
109	0.5%	97%
110	0.4%	97%
111	0.2%	96%
112	0.3%	96%
113	0.4%	96%
114	0.4%	95%
115	0.7%	95%
116	0.4%	94%
117	0.3%	94%
118	0.9%	94%
119	0.7%	93%
120	0.4%	92%
121	0.5%	92%
122	0.4%	91%
123	0.6%	91%
124	0.8%	90%
125	1.3%	89%
126	0.3%	88%
127	0.7%	88%
128	0.8%	87%
129	0.6%	87%
130	1.4%	86%
131	0.3%	84%
132	0.8%	84%
133	0.8%	83%
134	0.7%	83%
135	2%	82%
136	0.3%	80%
137	2%	80%
138	0.7%	78%
139	0.6%	77%
140	0.7%	77%
141	2%	76%
142	2%	75%
143	0.4%	73%
144	0.6%	73%
145	0.6%	72%
146	0.9%	71%
147	0.5%	71%
148	0.9%	70%
149	1.3%	69%
150	2%	68%
151	0.5%	66%
152	0.6%	66%
153	0.3%	65%
154	0.8%	65%
155	0.7%	64%
156	1.3%	63%
157	1.4%	62%
158	0.8%	61%
159	2%	60%
160	0.8%	58%
161	1.2%	58%
162	1.5%	56%
163	1.0%	55%
164	1.4%	54%
165	1.0%	53%	Median
166	2%	52%
167	1.0%	50%
168	1.1%	49%
169	1.4%	47%
170	2%	46%
171	0.9%	44%
172	1.2%	43%
173	2%	42%
174	0.9%	40%
175	1.5%	39%
176	1.1%	37%
177	1.2%	36%
178	0.8%	35%
179	2%	34%
180	2%	32%
181	0.8%	31%
182	1.2%	30%
183	1.1%	28%
184	0.7%	27%
185	1.0%	27%
186	2%	26%
187	2%	24%
188	1.3%	22%
189	0.9%	21%
190	0.4%	20%
191	1.4%	20%
192	1.1%	19%
193	1.3%	17%
194	0.8%	16%
195	1.1%	15%
196	0.7%	14%
197	0.7%	14%
198	0.3%	13%
199	0.4%	12%
200	1.2%	12%
201	1.0%	11%
202	0.3%	10%
203	1.1%	10%
204	0.2%	8%
205	0.3%	8%
206	0.3%	8%
207	0.6%	8%
208	0.6%	7%
209	1.2%	6%
210	0.1%	5%
211	0.2%	5%
212	0.3%	5%
213	0.5%	5%
214	0.5%	4%
215	0.2%	4%
216	0.2%	3%
217	0.3%	3%
218	0.2%	3%
219	0.3%	3%
220	0.1%	2%
221	0.1%	2%
222	0.3%	2%
223	0.2%	2%
224	0.1%	1.5%
225	0.1%	1.4%
226	0.1%	1.3%
227	0.1%	1.2%
228	0.2%	1.0%
229	0.1%	0.9%
230	0.1%	0.8%
231	0.1%	0.7%
232	0.1%	0.7%
233	0.1%	0.6%
234	0.1%	0.5%
235	0%	0.4%
236	0%	0.4%
237	0.1%	0.4%
238	0%	0.3%
239	0%	0.2%
240	0%	0.2%
241	0%	0.2%
242	0%	0.2%
243	0%	0.1%
244	0%	0.1%
245	0%	0.1%
246	0%	0.1%
247	0%	0.1%
248	0%	0.1%
249	0%	0.1%
250	0%	0%
251	0%	0%
252	0%	0%
253	0%	0%
254	0%	0%
255	0%	0%
256	0%	0%
257	0%	0%
258	0%	0%
259	0%	0%
260	0%	0%
261	0%	0%
262	0%	0%
263	0%	0%
264	0%	0%
265	0%	0%
266	0%	0%
267	0%	0%
268	0%	0%
269	0%	0%
270	0%	0%
271	0%	0%
272	0%	0%
273	0%	0%
274	0%	0%
275	0%	0%
276	0%	0%
277	0%	0%
278	0%	0%
279	0%	0%
280	0%	0%
281	0%	0%
282	0%	0%
283	0%	0%
284	0%	0%
285	0%	0%
286	0%	0%
287	0%	0%
288	0%	0%
289	0%	0%
290	0%	0%
291	0%	0%
292	0%	0%
293	0%	0%
294	0%	0%
295	0%	0%
296	0%	0%
297	0%	0%
298	0%	0%
299	0%	0%
300	0%	0%
301	0%	0%
302	0%	0%
303	0%	0%
304	0%	0%
305	0%	0%
306	0%	0%
307	0%	0%
308	0%	0%
309	0%	0%
310	0%	0%
311	0%	0%
312	0%	0%
313	0%	0%
314	0%	0%
315	0%	0%
316	0%	0%
317	0%	0%
318	0%	0%
319	0%	0%
320	0%	0%
321	0%	0%
322	0%	0%
323	0%	0%
324	0%	0%
325	0%	0%
326	0%	0%	Majority
327	0%	0%
328	0%	0%
329	0%	0%
330	0%	0%
331	0%	0%
332	0%	0%
333	0%	0%
334	0%	0%
335	0%	0%
336	0%	0%
337	0%	0%
338	0%	0%
339	0%	0%
340	0%	0%
341	0%	0%
342	0%	0%
343	0%	0%
344	0%	0%
345	0%	0%
346	0%	0%
347	0%	0%
348	0%	0%
349	0%	0%
350	0%	0%
351	0%	0%
352	0%	0%
353	0%	0%
354	0%	0%
355	0%	0%
356	0%	0%
357	0%	0%
358	0%	0%
359	0%	0%
360	0%	0%
361	0%	0%
362	0%	0%
363	0%	0%
364	0%	0%
365	0%	0%
366	0%	0%
367	0%	0%
368	0%	0%
369	0%	0%
370	0%	0%
371	0%	0%
372	0%	0%
373	0%	0%
374	0%	0%
375	0%	0%
376	0%	0%
377	0%	0%
378	0%	0%
379	0%	0%
380	0%	0%
381	0%	0%
382	0%	0%
383	0%	0%
384	0%	0%
385	0%	0%
386	0%	0%
387	0%	0%
388	0%	0%
389	0%	0%
390	0%	0%
391	0%	0%
392	0%	0%
393	0%	0%
394	0%	0%
395	0%	0%
396	0%	0%
397	0%	0%
398	0%	0%
399	0%	0%
400	0%	0%
401	0%	0%
402	0%	0%
403	0%	0%
404	0%	0%
405	0%	0%
406	0%	0%
407	0%	0%
408	0%	0%
409	0%	0%
410	0%	0%
411	0%	0%
412	0%	0%
413	0%	0%
414	0%	0%
415	0%	0%
416	0%	0%
417	0%	0%	Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
74	0%	100%
75	0%	99.9%
76	0%	99.9%
77	0%	99.9%
78	0%	99.9%
79	0%	99.9%
80	0%	99.9%
81	0%	99.8%
82	0%	99.8%
83	0%	99.8%
84	0.1%	99.8%
85	0%	99.7%
86	0.1%	99.7%
87	0.1%	99.6%
88	0%	99.5%
89	0%	99.5%
90	0.1%	99.5%
91	0.1%	99.3%
92	0.2%	99.3%
93	0.1%	99.1%
94	0.2%	99.1%
95	0.1%	98.9%
96	0.1%	98.8%
97	0.2%	98.7%
98	0.2%	98%
99	0.2%	98%
100	0.2%	98%
101	0.2%	98%
102	0.3%	98%
103	0.2%	97%
104	0.4%	97%
105	0.4%	97%
106	0.3%	96%
107	0.2%	96%
108	0.4%	96%
109	0.3%	96%
110	0.9%	95%
111	0.3%	94%
112	0.3%	94%
113	0.9%	94%
114	0.8%	93%
115	0.2%	92%
116	0.5%	92%
117	0.4%	91%
118	0.6%	91%
119	1.0%	90%
120	1.1%	89%
121	0.3%	88%
122	0.7%	88%
123	0.5%	87%
124	0.9%	87%
125	1.2%	86%
126	0.4%	85%
127	1.1%	84%
128	0.8%	83%
129	0.5%	82%
130	2%	82%
131	0.5%	80%
132	1.3%	80%
133	1.3%	78%
134	0.3%	77%
135	0.7%	77%
136	2%	76%
137	2%	74%
138	0.5%	73%
139	0.6%	72%
140	0.4%	72%
141	1.1%	71%
142	0.2%	70%
143	1.0%	70%
144	1.3%	69%
145	2%	68%
146	0.4%	66%
147	0.5%	66%
148	0.4%	65%
149	1.0%	65%
150	0.7%	64%
151	2%	63%
152	0.9%	62%
153	0.9%	61%
154	1.4%	60%
155	1.3%	58%
156	1.1%	57%
157	1.2%	56%
158	1.1%	55%
159	1.5%	54%
160	1.1%	52%	Median
161	2%	51%
162	1.1%	49%
163	1.0%	48%
164	2%	47%
165	2%	46%
166	0.7%	44%
167	1.2%	43%
168	2%	42%
169	1.0%	40%
170	2%	39%
171	1.4%	37%
172	0.8%	36%
173	1.0%	35%
174	2%	34%
175	1.2%	32%
176	1.0%	30%
177	1.0%	29%
178	1.1%	28%
179	0.7%	27%
180	1.0%	26%
181	2%	26%
182	2%	24%
183	2%	22%
184	0.8%	21%
185	0.3%	20%
186	1.3%	20%
187	1.2%	18%
188	1.3%	17%
189	1.2%	16%
190	0.8%	15%
191	0.7%	14%
192	0.7%	13%
193	0.3%	13%
194	0.5%	12%
195	1.3%	12%
196	1.0%	11%
197	0.4%	10%
198	0.9%	9%
199	0.3%	8%
200	0.4%	8%
201	0.2%	8%
202	0.6%	8%
203	0.8%	7%
204	1.1%	6%
205	0.1%	5%
206	0.2%	5%
207	0.3%	5%
208	0.4%	4%
209	0.5%	4%
210	0.2%	3%
211	0.2%	3%
212	0.3%	3%
213	0.2%	3%
214	0.3%	2%
215	0.1%	2%
216	0.1%	2%
217	0.3%	2%
218	0.2%	2%
219	0.1%	1.4%
220	0.1%	1.3%
221	0.1%	1.2%
222	0.1%	1.1%
223	0.2%	1.0%
224	0.1%	0.9%
225	0.1%	0.8%
226	0%	0.7%
227	0.1%	0.6%
228	0%	0.5%
229	0.1%	0.5%
230	0%	0.4%
231	0%	0.4%
232	0.1%	0.3%
233	0%	0.3%
234	0%	0.2%
235	0%	0.2%
236	0%	0.2%
237	0%	0.2%
238	0%	0.1%
239	0%	0.1%
240	0%	0.1%
241	0%	0.1%
242	0%	0.1%
243	0%	0.1%
244	0%	0.1%
245	0%	0%
246	0%	0%
247	0%	0%
248	0%	0%
249	0%	0%
250	0%	0%
251	0%	0%
252	0%	0%
253	0%	0%
254	0%	0%
255	0%	0%
256	0%	0%
257	0%	0%
258	0%	0%
259	0%	0%
260	0%	0%
261	0%	0%
262	0%	0%
263	0%	0%
264	0%	0%
265	0%	0%
266	0%	0%
267	0%	0%
268	0%	0%
269	0%	0%
270	0%	0%
271	0%	0%
272	0%	0%
273	0%	0%
274	0%	0%
275	0%	0%
276	0%	0%
277	0%	0%
278	0%	0%
279	0%	0%
280	0%	0%
281	0%	0%
282	0%	0%
283	0%	0%
284	0%	0%
285	0%	0%
286	0%	0%
287	0%	0%
288	0%	0%
289	0%	0%
290	0%	0%
291	0%	0%
292	0%	0%
293	0%	0%
294	0%	0%
295	0%	0%
296	0%	0%
297	0%	0%
298	0%	0%
299	0%	0%
300	0%	0%
301	0%	0%
302	0%	0%
303	0%	0%
304	0%	0%
305	0%	0%
306	0%	0%
307	0%	0%
308	0%	0%
309	0%	0%
310	0%	0%
311	0%	0%
312	0%	0%
313	0%	0%
314	0%	0%
315	0%	0%
316	0%	0%
317	0%	0%
318	0%	0%
319	0%	0%
320	0%	0%
321	0%	0%
322	0%	0%
323	0%	0%
324	0%	0%
325	0%	0%
326	0%	0%	Majority
327	0%	0%
328	0%	0%
329	0%	0%
330	0%	0%
331	0%	0%
332	0%	0%
333	0%	0%
334	0%	0%
335	0%	0%
336	0%	0%
337	0%	0%
338	0%	0%
339	0%	0%
340	0%	0%
341	0%	0%
342	0%	0%
343	0%	0%
344	0%	0%
345	0%	0%
346	0%	0%
347	0%	0%
348	0%	0%
349	0%	0%
350	0%	0%
351	0%	0%
352	0%	0%
353	0%	0%
354	0%	0%
355	0%	0%
356	0%	0%
357	0%	0%
358	0%	0%
359	0%	0%
360	0%	0%
361	0%	0%
362	0%	0%
363	0%	0%
364	0%	0%
365	0%	0%
366	0%	0%
367	0%	0%
368	0%	0%
369	0%	0%
370	0%	0%
371	0%	0%
372	0%	0%
373	0%	0%
374	0%	0%
375	0%	0%
376	0%	0%
377	0%	0%
378	0%	0%
379	0%	0%
380	0%	0%
381	0%	0%
382	0%	0%
383	0%	0%
384	0%	0%
385	0%	0%
386	0%	0%
387	0%	0%
388	0%	0%
389	0%	0%
390	0%	0%
391	0%	0%
392	0%	0%
393	0%	0%
394	0%	0%
395	0%	0%
396	0%	0%
397	0%	0%
398	0%	0%
399	0%	0%
400	0%	0%
401	0%	0%
402	0%	0%
403	0%	0%
404	0%	0%
405	0%	0%
406	0%	0%
407	0%	0%
408	0%	0%
409	0%	0%
410	0%	0%
411	0%	0%
412	0%	0%
413	0%	0%	Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
104	0%	100%
105	0%	99.9%
106	0%	99.9%
107	0.1%	99.9%
108	0.1%	99.8%
109	0.1%	99.7%
110	0.2%	99.6%
111	0.1%	99.5%
112	0.1%	99.4%
113	0.1%	99.2%
114	0.1%	99.1%
115	0.1%	99.0%
116	0.1%	98.9%
117	0.1%	98.8%
118	0.1%	98.7%
119	0.1%	98.7%
120	0.1%	98.6%
121	0.1%	98.5%
122	0.1%	98%
123	0.1%	98%
124	0.2%	98%
125	0.1%	98%
126	0.2%	98%
127	0.1%	98%
128	0.2%	98%
129	0.1%	98%
130	0.2%	97%
131	0.6%	97%
132	0.6%	97%
133	1.2%	96%
134	0.5%	95%
135	1.3%	94%
136	0.1%	93%
137	0.3%	93%
138	2%	92%
139	3%	91%
140	0.9%	88%
141	2%	87%
142	0.8%	85%
143	1.4%	84%
144	3%	83%
145	1.1%	80%
146	1.5%	79%
147	2%	78%
148	2%	75%
149	1.0%	73%
150	0.5%	72%
151	0.7%	72%
152	2%	71%
153	0.1%	70%
154	0.7%	69%
155	0.3%	69%
156	1.3%	69%
157	0.8%	67%
158	2%	66%
159	2%	65%
160	3%	63%
161	1.2%	60%
162	1.4%	59%
163	3%	58%
164	3%	55%
165	0.8%	53%
166	0.9%	52%
167	2%	51%
168	0.9%	49%
169	1.1%	48%
170	2%	47%	Median
171	1.1%	46%
172	1.0%	44%
173	0.9%	43%
174	0.6%	43%
175	0.7%	42%
176	0.7%	41%
177	1.0%	41%
178	0.5%	40%
179	0.5%	39%
180	0.6%	39%
181	0.8%	38%
182	2%	37%
183	3%	35%
184	2%	33%
185	1.3%	31%
186	2%	29%
187	2%	28%
188	2%	26%
189	1.0%	24%
190	2%	23%
191	3%	20%
192	2%	18%
193	2%	16%
194	0.8%	14%
195	1.1%	13%
196	0.8%	12%
197	1.1%	11%
198	0.8%	10%
199	0.6%	10%
200	1.1%	9%
201	0.6%	8%
202	0.9%	7%
203	1.4%	6%
204	1.1%	5%
205	0.7%	4%
206	0.5%	3%
207	0.6%	3%
208	0.4%	2%
209	0.3%	2%
210	0.3%	1.4%
211	0.1%	1.2%
212	0.1%	1.0%
213	0.1%	0.9%
214	0%	0.8%
215	0%	0.8%
216	0%	0.7%
217	0%	0.7%
218	0%	0.6%
219	0.1%	0.6%
220	0%	0.5%
221	0%	0.5%
222	0.1%	0.5%
223	0%	0.4%
224	0%	0.4%
225	0%	0.4%
226	0%	0.3%
227	0%	0.3%
228	0%	0.3%
229	0%	0.2%
230	0%	0.2%
231	0%	0.2%
232	0%	0.2%
233	0%	0.1%
234	0%	0.1%
235	0%	0.1%
236	0%	0.1%
237	0%	0%
238	0%	0%
239	0%	0%
240	0%	0%
241	0%	0%
242	0%	0%
243	0%	0%
244	0%	0%
245	0%	0%
246	0%	0%
247	0%	0%
248	0%	0%
249	0%	0%
250	0%	0%
251	0%	0%
252	0%	0%
253	0%	0%
254	0%	0%
255	0%	0%
256	0%	0%
257	0%	0%
258	0%	0%
259	0%	0%
260	0%	0%
261	0%	0%
262	0%	0%
263	0%	0%
264	0%	0%
265	0%	0%
266	0%	0%
267	0%	0%
268	0%	0%
269	0%	0%
270	0%	0%
271	0%	0%
272	0%	0%
273	0%	0%
274	0%	0%
275	0%	0%
276	0%	0%
277	0%	0%
278	0%	0%
279	0%	0%
280	0%	0%
281	0%	0%
282	0%	0%
283	0%	0%
284	0%	0%
285	0%	0%
286	0%	0%
287	0%	0%
288	0%	0%
289	0%	0%
290	0%	0%
291	0%	0%
292	0%	0%
293	0%	0%
294	0%	0%
295	0%	0%
296	0%	0%
297	0%	0%
298	0%	0%
299	0%	0%
300	0%	0%
301	0%	0%
302	0%	0%
303	0%	0%
304	0%	0%
305	0%	0%
306	0%	0%
307	0%	0%
308	0%	0%
309	0%	0%
310	0%	0%
311	0%	0%
312	0%	0%
313	0%	0%
314	0%	0%
315	0%	0%
316	0%	0%
317	0%	0%
318	0%	0%
319	0%	0%
320	0%	0%
321	0%	0%
322	0%	0%
323	0%	0%
324	0%	0%
325	0%	0%
326	0%	0%	Majority
327	0%	0%
328	0%	0%
329	0%	0%
330	0%	0%
331	0%	0%
332	0%	0%
333	0%	0%
334	0%	0%
335	0%	0%
336	0%	0%
337	0%	0%
338	0%	0%
339	0%	0%
340	0%	0%
341	0%	0%
342	0%	0%
343	0%	0%
344	0%	0%
345	0%	0%
346	0%	0%
347	0%	0%
348	0%	0%
349	0%	0%
350	0%	0%
351	0%	0%
352	0%	0%
353	0%	0%
354	0%	0%
355	0%	0%
356	0%	0%
357	0%	0%
358	0%	0%
359	0%	0%
360	0%	0%
361	0%	0%
362	0%	0%
363	0%	0%
364	0%	0%
365	0%	0%
366	0%	0%
367	0%	0%
368	0%	0%
369	0%	0%
370	0%	0%
371	0%	0%
372	0%	0%
373	0%	0%
374	0%	0%
375	0%	0%
376	0%	0%	Last Result

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
45	0%	100%
46	0%	99.9%
47	0%	99.9%
48	0%	99.9%
49	0%	99.9%
50	0%	99.9%
51	0%	99.9%
52	0%	99.9%
53	0%	99.8%
54	0%	99.8%
55	0%	99.7%
56	0.1%	99.7%
57	0.1%	99.7%
58	0.1%	99.6%
59	0.1%	99.5%
60	0%	99.4%
61	0.1%	99.4%
62	0.1%	99.3%
63	0.1%	99.2%
64	0.2%	99.1%
65	0.2%	98.9%
66	0.2%	98.7%
67	0.2%	98.5%
68	0.2%	98%
69	0.1%	98%
70	0.2%	98%
71	0.1%	98%
72	0.2%	98%
73	0.2%	97%
74	0.4%	97%
75	0.4%	97%
76	0.2%	97%
77	1.0%	96%
78	0.9%	95%
79	0.2%	94%
80	0.6%	94%
81	0.7%	94%
82	0.2%	93%
83	0.3%	93%
84	0.6%	92%
85	0.6%	92%
86	0.3%	91%
87	1.3%	91%
88	0.4%	90%
89	1.4%	89%
90	0.4%	88%
91	1.4%	87%
92	1.3%	86%
93	1.1%	85%
94	0.9%	84%
95	0.8%	83%
96	0.4%	82%
97	0.7%	81%
98	0.5%	81%
99	2%	80%
100	0.5%	78%
101	1.0%	78%
102	0.6%	77%
103	2%	76%
104	0.8%	74%
105	0.5%	73%
106	2%	72%
107	0.6%	71%
108	0.8%	70%
109	2%	69%
110	0.4%	68%
111	1.3%	67%
112	0.7%	66%
113	2%	65%
114	0.8%	63%
115	1.0%	62%
116	1.4%	62%
117	0.5%	60%
118	0.8%	60%
119	1.0%	59%
120	0.8%	58%
121	2%	57%
122	1.2%	55%
123	1.2%	54%
124	2%	53%
125	2%	51%	Median
126	1.0%	49%
127	0.9%	48%
128	1.2%	47%
129	0.9%	46%
130	0.7%	45%
131	1.0%	45%
132	0.9%	44%
133	0.9%	43%
134	1.0%	42%
135	1.3%	41%
136	2%	40%
137	3%	37%
138	2%	34%
139	1.4%	32%
140	0.9%	31%
141	0.9%	30%
142	1.1%	29%
143	0.9%	28%
144	1.0%	27%
145	1.4%	26%
146	1.0%	25%
147	1.2%	24%
148	1.3%	22%
149	0.8%	21%
150	1.1%	20%
151	1.3%	19%
152	1.0%	18%
153	0.7%	17%
154	0.7%	16%
155	0.7%	15%
156	0.9%	15%
157	2%	14%
158	0.4%	12%
159	2%	12%
160	1.4%	10%
161	0.5%	9%
162	0.8%	8%
163	0.5%	8%
164	0.9%	7%
165	0.5%	6%
166	0.4%	6%
167	0.3%	5%
168	0.4%	5%
169	0.5%	5%
170	0.6%	4%
171	0.4%	4%
172	0.3%	3%
173	0.5%	3%
174	0.3%	3%
175	0.2%	2%
176	0.2%	2%
177	0.2%	2%
178	0.1%	2%
179	0.2%	2%
180	0.1%	1.3%
181	0.2%	1.2%
182	0.2%	1.0%
183	0.1%	0.8%
184	0.1%	0.7%
185	0.1%	0.6%
186	0.1%	0.5%
187	0%	0.5%
188	0%	0.4%
189	0%	0.4%
190	0%	0.4%
191	0%	0.3%
192	0%	0.3%
193	0%	0.3%
194	0%	0.2%
195	0%	0.2%
196	0%	0.2%
197	0%	0.2%
198	0%	0.2%
199	0%	0.1%
200	0%	0.1%
201	0%	0.1%
202	0%	0.1%
203	0%	0.1%
204	0%	0.1%
205	0%	0%
206	0%	0%
207	0%	0%
208	0%	0%
209	0%	0%
210	0%	0%
211	0%	0%
212	0%	0%
213	0%	0%
214	0%	0%
215	0%	0%
216	0%	0%
217	0%	0%
218	0%	0%
219	0%	0%
220	0%	0%
221	0%	0%
222	0%	0%
223	0%	0%
224	0%	0%
225	0%	0%
226	0%	0%
227	0%	0%
228	0%	0%
229	0%	0%
230	0%	0%
231	0%	0%
232	0%	0%
233	0%	0%
234	0%	0%
235	0%	0%
236	0%	0%
237	0%	0%
238	0%	0%
239	0%	0%
240	0%	0%
241	0%	0%
242	0%	0%
243	0%	0%
244	0%	0%
245	0%	0%
246	0%	0%
247	0%	0%
248	0%	0%
249	0%	0%
250	0%	0%
251	0%	0%
252	0%	0%
253	0%	0%
254	0%	0%
255	0%	0%
256	0%	0%
257	0%	0%
258	0%	0%
259	0%	0%
260	0%	0%
261	0%	0%
262	0%	0%
263	0%	0%
264	0%	0%
265	0%	0%
266	0%	0%
267	0%	0%
268	0%	0%
269	0%	0%
270	0%	0%
271	0%	0%
272	0%	0%
273	0%	0%
274	0%	0%
275	0%	0%
276	0%	0%
277	0%	0%
278	0%	0%
279	0%	0%
280	0%	0%
281	0%	0%
282	0%	0%
283	0%	0%
284	0%	0%
285	0%	0%
286	0%	0%
287	0%	0%
288	0%	0%
289	0%	0%
290	0%	0%
291	0%	0%
292	0%	0%
293	0%	0%
294	0%	0%
295	0%	0%
296	0%	0%
297	0%	0%
298	0%	0%
299	0%	0%
300	0%	0%
301	0%	0%
302	0%	0%
303	0%	0%
304	0%	0%
305	0%	0%
306	0%	0%
307	0%	0%
308	0%	0%
309	0%	0%
310	0%	0%
311	0%	0%
312	0%	0%
313	0%	0%
314	0%	0%
315	0%	0%
316	0%	0%
317	0%	0%
318	0%	0%
319	0%	0%
320	0%	0%
321	0%	0%
322	0%	0%
323	0%	0%
324	0%	0%
325	0%	0%
326	0%	0%	Majority
327	0%	0%
328	0%	0%
329	0%	0%
330	0%	0%
331	0%	0%
332	0%	0%
333	0%	0%
334	0%	0%
335	0%	0%
336	0%	0%
337	0%	0%
338	0%	0%
339	0%	0%
340	0%	0%
341	0%	0%
342	0%	0%
343	0%	0%
344	0%	0%
345	0%	0%
346	0%	0%
347	0%	0%
348	0%	0%
349	0%	0%
350	0%	0%
351	0%	0%
352	0%	0%
353	0%	0%
354	0%	0%
355	0%	0%
356	0%	0%
357	0%	0%
358	0%	0%
359	0%	0%
360	0%	0%
361	0%	0%
362	0%	0%
363	0%	0%
364	0%	0%
365	0%	0%
366	0%	0%
367	0%	0%
368	0%	0%
369	0%	0%	Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
40	0%	100%
41	0%	99.9%
42	0%	99.9%
43	0%	99.9%
44	0%	99.9%
45	0%	99.9%
46	0%	99.9%
47	0%	99.9%
48	0%	99.8%
49	0%	99.8%
50	0%	99.7%
51	0.1%	99.7%
52	0%	99.6%
53	0.1%	99.6%
54	0.1%	99.5%
55	0%	99.4%
56	0.1%	99.4%
57	0.1%	99.3%
58	0.1%	99.2%
59	0.2%	99.0%
60	0.1%	98.9%
61	0.2%	98.7%
62	0.3%	98.6%
63	0.2%	98%
64	0.1%	98%
65	0.2%	98%
66	0.1%	98%
67	0.3%	98%
68	0.1%	97%
69	0.4%	97%
70	0.4%	97%
71	0.2%	97%
72	1.1%	96%
73	0.8%	95%
74	0.3%	95%
75	0.6%	94%
76	0.7%	94%
77	0.2%	93%
78	0.3%	93%
79	0.7%	92%
80	0.6%	92%
81	0.2%	91%
82	1.3%	91%
83	0.6%	90%
84	1.1%	89%
85	0.9%	88%
86	1.1%	87%
87	1.4%	86%
88	1.1%	85%
89	0.8%	83%
90	0.8%	83%
91	0.6%	82%
92	0.6%	81%
93	0.4%	81%
94	2%	80%
95	0.8%	78%
96	0.8%	77%
97	0.7%	77%
98	2%	76%
99	0.5%	74%
100	0.9%	73%
101	1.5%	72%
102	1.0%	71%
103	0.8%	70%
104	1.4%	69%
105	1.1%	68%
106	0.6%	66%
107	0.8%	66%
108	2%	65%
109	0.7%	63%
110	0.9%	62%
111	1.3%	61%
112	0.5%	60%
113	0.9%	60%
114	1.1%	59%
115	0.7%	58%
116	2%	57%
117	2%	55%
118	0.7%	53%
119	2%	53%
120	2%	51%	Median
121	1.2%	49%
122	0.7%	48%
123	1.2%	47%
124	0.9%	46%
125	0.7%	45%
126	0.9%	44%
127	1.1%	44%
128	0.8%	42%
129	1.1%	42%
130	2%	41%
131	2%	39%
132	3%	37%
133	2%	34%
134	0.9%	32%
135	0.9%	31%
136	1.1%	30%
137	0.8%	29%
138	0.9%	28%
139	1.2%	27%
140	1.4%	26%
141	1.1%	24%
142	1.1%	23%
143	1.3%	22%
144	0.7%	21%
145	1.5%	20%
146	1.1%	19%
147	0.9%	18%
148	0.6%	17%
149	0.7%	16%
150	0.6%	15%
151	0.9%	15%
152	2%	14%
153	0.7%	12%
154	1.2%	11%
155	2%	10%
156	0.3%	9%
157	0.9%	8%
158	0.5%	8%
159	0.8%	7%
160	0.5%	6%
161	0.4%	6%
162	0.3%	5%
163	0.3%	5%
164	0.5%	5%
165	0.5%	4%
166	0.5%	4%
167	0.3%	3%
168	0.4%	3%
169	0.3%	2%
170	0.2%	2%
171	0.2%	2%
172	0.2%	2%
173	0.1%	2%
174	0.2%	1.4%
175	0.1%	1.3%
176	0.1%	1.1%
177	0.3%	1.0%
178	0.1%	0.7%
179	0.1%	0.7%
180	0.1%	0.6%
181	0.1%	0.5%
182	0%	0.5%
183	0%	0.4%
184	0%	0.4%
185	0%	0.3%
186	0%	0.3%
187	0%	0.3%
188	0%	0.3%
189	0%	0.2%
190	0%	0.2%
191	0%	0.2%
192	0%	0.2%
193	0%	0.2%
194	0%	0.1%
195	0%	0.1%
196	0%	0.1%
197	0%	0.1%
198	0%	0.1%
199	0%	0.1%
200	0%	0%
201	0%	0%
202	0%	0%
203	0%	0%
204	0%	0%
205	0%	0%
206	0%	0%
207	0%	0%
208	0%	0%
209	0%	0%
210	0%	0%
211	0%	0%
212	0%	0%
213	0%	0%
214	0%	0%
215	0%	0%
216	0%	0%
217	0%	0%
218	0%	0%
219	0%	0%
220	0%	0%
221	0%	0%
222	0%	0%
223	0%	0%
224	0%	0%
225	0%	0%
226	0%	0%
227	0%	0%
228	0%	0%
229	0%	0%
230	0%	0%
231	0%	0%
232	0%	0%
233	0%	0%
234	0%	0%
235	0%	0%
236	0%	0%
237	0%	0%
238	0%	0%
239	0%	0%
240	0%	0%
241	0%	0%
242	0%	0%
243	0%	0%
244	0%	0%
245	0%	0%
246	0%	0%
247	0%	0%
248	0%	0%
249	0%	0%
250	0%	0%
251	0%	0%
252	0%	0%
253	0%	0%
254	0%	0%
255	0%	0%
256	0%	0%
257	0%	0%
258	0%	0%
259	0%	0%
260	0%	0%
261	0%	0%
262	0%	0%
263	0%	0%
264	0%	0%
265	0%	0%
266	0%	0%
267	0%	0%
268	0%	0%
269	0%	0%
270	0%	0%
271	0%	0%
272	0%	0%
273	0%	0%
274	0%	0%
275	0%	0%
276	0%	0%
277	0%	0%
278	0%	0%
279	0%	0%
280	0%	0%
281	0%	0%
282	0%	0%
283	0%	0%
284	0%	0%
285	0%	0%
286	0%	0%
287	0%	0%
288	0%	0%
289	0%	0%
290	0%	0%
291	0%	0%
292	0%	0%
293	0%	0%
294	0%	0%
295	0%	0%
296	0%	0%
297	0%	0%
298	0%	0%
299	0%	0%
300	0%	0%
301	0%	0%
302	0%	0%
303	0%	0%
304	0%	0%
305	0%	0%
306	0%	0%
307	0%	0%
308	0%	0%
309	0%	0%
310	0%	0%
311	0%	0%
312	0%	0%
313	0%	0%
314	0%	0%
315	0%	0%
316	0%	0%
317	0%	0%
318	0%	0%
319	0%	0%
320	0%	0%
321	0%	0%
322	0%	0%
323	0%	0%
324	0%	0%
325	0%	0%
326	0%	0%	Majority
327	0%	0%
328	0%	0%
329	0%	0%
330	0%	0%
331	0%	0%
332	0%	0%
333	0%	0%
334	0%	0%
335	0%	0%
336	0%	0%
337	0%	0%
338	0%	0%
339	0%	0%
340	0%	0%
341	0%	0%
342	0%	0%
343	0%	0%
344	0%	0%
345	0%	0%
346	0%	0%
347	0%	0%
348	0%	0%
349	0%	0%
350	0%	0%
351	0%	0%
352	0%	0%
353	0%	0%
354	0%	0%
355	0%	0%
356	0%	0%
357	0%	0%
358	0%	0%
359	0%	0%
360	0%	0%
361	0%	0%
362	0%	0%
363	0%	0%
364	0%	0%
365	0%	0%	Last Result

British Polls

Opinion Polls for the Next United Kingdom General Election

Opinion Poll by Norstat, 10–12 June 2024

Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals

Seats

Confidence Intervals

Labour Party

Conservative Party

Liberal Democrats

Brexit Party

Green Party

Scottish National Party

Plaid Cymru

Coalitions

Confidence Intervals

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Labour Party

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Conservative Party

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations