Opinion Poll by Survation for Good Morning Britain, 1–3 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 32.1% 42.8% 41.1–44.4% 40.7–44.9% 40.3–45.3% 39.5–46.1%
Conservative Party 43.6% 22.5% 21.2–24.0% 20.8–24.4% 20.5–24.7% 19.8–25.4%
Liberal Democrats 11.5% 13.5% 12.4–14.7% 12.1–15.0% 11.8–15.3% 11.3–15.9%
Brexit Party 2.0% 8.3% 7.5–9.3% 7.2–9.6% 7.0–9.8% 6.6–10.3%
Green Party 2.8% 6.2% 5.4–7.0% 5.2–7.3% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–8.0%
Scottish National Party 3.9% 3.4% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.7%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.1% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 202 379 357–407 351–417 345–423 336–434
Conservative Party 365 120 90–144 79–152 72–157 62–167
Liberal Democrats 11 60 51–70 50–72 46–73 41–76
Brexit Party 0 20 18–23 16–26 14–26 10–30
Green Party 1 3 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Scottish National Party 48 41 34–50 32–51 30–52 23–55
Plaid Cymru 4 5 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.8%  
331 0% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0.1% 99.6%  
336 0.2% 99.5%  
337 0% 99.3%  
338 0.1% 99.3%  
339 0.2% 99.2%  
340 0.2% 99.0%  
341 0.2% 98.8%  
342 0.3% 98.6%  
343 0.2% 98%  
344 0.4% 98%  
345 0.4% 98%  
346 0.4% 97%  
347 0.5% 97%  
348 0.4% 96%  
349 0.3% 96%  
350 0.4% 96%  
351 0.9% 95%  
352 0.3% 94%  
353 0.8% 94%  
354 1.0% 93%  
355 0.6% 92%  
356 0.7% 92%  
357 1.0% 91%  
358 1.2% 90%  
359 1.4% 89%  
360 0.6% 87%  
361 1.0% 87%  
362 1.0% 86%  
363 3% 85%  
364 1.2% 82%  
365 0.6% 81%  
366 1.2% 80%  
367 2% 79%  
368 2% 77%  
369 2% 75%  
370 1.3% 73%  
371 2% 72%  
372 3% 70%  
373 3% 67%  
374 3% 65%  
375 3% 62%  
376 2% 59%  
377 3% 57%  
378 2% 54%  
379 2% 52% Median
380 3% 50%  
381 1.2% 47%  
382 3% 46%  
383 3% 43%  
384 2% 40%  
385 3% 39%  
386 2% 35%  
387 0.7% 33%  
388 1.1% 33%  
389 2% 32%  
390 2% 30%  
391 4% 28%  
392 0.9% 24%  
393 1.4% 23%  
394 0.9% 22%  
395 1.3% 21%  
396 0.8% 19%  
397 1.4% 19%  
398 2% 17%  
399 0.4% 15%  
400 0.2% 15%  
401 0.4% 15%  
402 1.0% 14%  
403 0.8% 13%  
404 1.2% 12%  
405 0.8% 11%  
406 0.3% 10%  
407 0.2% 10%  
408 1.2% 10%  
409 0.7% 9%  
410 0.6% 8%  
411 0.3% 7%  
412 0.4% 7%  
413 0.4% 7%  
414 0.3% 6%  
415 0.3% 6%  
416 0.6% 6%  
417 0.2% 5%  
418 0.4% 5%  
419 0.7% 4%  
420 0.3% 4%  
421 0.1% 3%  
422 0.5% 3%  
423 0.3% 3%  
424 0.3% 2%  
425 0.3% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.1% 2%  
428 0.2% 1.5%  
429 0.1% 1.2%  
430 0.2% 1.1%  
431 0.1% 1.0%  
432 0.1% 0.8%  
433 0.1% 0.7%  
434 0.1% 0.6%  
435 0.1% 0.5%  
436 0% 0.4%  
437 0% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.3%  
440 0.1% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.8%  
58 0% 99.8%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0% 99.7%  
61 0.1% 99.6%  
62 0.1% 99.5%  
63 0.1% 99.4%  
64 0.1% 99.3%  
65 0.2% 99.2%  
66 0.1% 99.0%  
67 0.3% 98.9%  
68 0.2% 98.6%  
69 0.3% 98%  
70 0.1% 98%  
71 0.3% 98%  
72 0.3% 98%  
73 0.4% 97%  
74 0.4% 97%  
75 0.1% 97%  
76 0.5% 96%  
77 0.4% 96%  
78 0.3% 96%  
79 0.3% 95%  
80 0.5% 95%  
81 0.5% 95%  
82 0.3% 94%  
83 0.4% 94%  
84 0.3% 93%  
85 0.3% 93%  
86 0.3% 93%  
87 0.6% 92%  
88 0.4% 92%  
89 1.1% 91%  
90 0.8% 90%  
91 0.3% 90%  
92 0.4% 89%  
93 0.3% 89%  
94 0.9% 88%  
95 0.8% 88%  
96 0.9% 87%  
97 0.5% 86%  
98 1.4% 85%  
99 0.8% 84%  
100 2% 83%  
101 1.0% 82%  
102 1.0% 81%  
103 0.7% 80%  
104 1.1% 79%  
105 2% 78%  
106 2% 76%  
107 1.2% 74%  
108 2% 73%  
109 1.1% 71%  
110 1.5% 70%  
111 2% 69%  
112 2% 67%  
113 3% 65%  
114 2% 62%  
115 3% 61%  
116 1.3% 58%  
117 2% 57%  
118 2% 54%  
119 2% 52%  
120 5% 50% Median
121 3% 46%  
122 1.2% 43%  
123 2% 42%  
124 2% 40%  
125 2% 38%  
126 3% 36%  
127 2% 34%  
128 2% 32%  
129 2% 30%  
130 1.3% 28%  
131 2% 26%  
132 0.8% 24%  
133 2% 23%  
134 2% 22%  
135 1.4% 20%  
136 1.1% 18%  
137 0.8% 17%  
138 1.4% 17%  
139 2% 15%  
140 0.7% 14%  
141 0.9% 13%  
142 0.6% 12%  
143 1.2% 11%  
144 0.7% 10%  
145 0.9% 10%  
146 0.9% 9%  
147 0.4% 8%  
148 0.3% 7%  
149 0.9% 7%  
150 0.5% 6%  
151 0.6% 6%  
152 0.9% 5%  
153 0.5% 4%  
154 0.3% 4%  
155 0.2% 3%  
156 0.4% 3%  
157 0.5% 3%  
158 0.4% 2%  
159 0.2% 2%  
160 0.3% 2%  
161 0.1% 1.3%  
162 0.2% 1.2%  
163 0.2% 1.0%  
164 0.1% 0.9%  
165 0.2% 0.8%  
166 0.1% 0.6%  
167 0.1% 0.5%  
168 0.1% 0.4%  
169 0.1% 0.4%  
170 0% 0.3%  
171 0% 0.3%  
172 0% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.2% 99.6%  
42 0.4% 99.4%  
43 0.6% 99.0%  
44 0.3% 98%  
45 0.2% 98%  
46 0.6% 98%  
47 0.5% 97%  
48 0.6% 97%  
49 0.7% 96%  
50 2% 95%  
51 4% 94%  
52 11% 90%  
53 3% 79%  
54 3% 75%  
55 5% 72%  
56 2% 67%  
57 6% 65%  
58 0.9% 59%  
59 7% 58%  
60 6% 52% Median
61 6% 46%  
62 7% 40%  
63 5% 33%  
64 3% 29%  
65 6% 25%  
66 1.2% 19%  
67 3% 18%  
68 3% 16%  
69 0.6% 13%  
70 3% 12%  
71 0.8% 9%  
72 5% 8%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.3%  
76 0.3% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.8%  
8 0.1% 99.6%  
9 0% 99.6%  
10 0.1% 99.5%  
11 0.2% 99.5%  
12 0.7% 99.3%  
13 1.0% 98.5%  
14 2% 98%  
15 0.5% 96%  
16 2% 95%  
17 1.4% 93%  
18 4% 92%  
19 15% 88%  
20 31% 73% Median
21 23% 42%  
22 3% 18%  
23 6% 15%  
24 2% 9%  
25 2% 7%  
26 3% 5%  
27 0.2% 2%  
28 1.0% 2%  
29 0% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.5%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100% Last Result
2 15% 89%  
3 74% 74% Median
4 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.8%  
22 0.1% 99.7%  
23 0.1% 99.6%  
24 0.2% 99.5%  
25 0.3% 99.2%  
26 0.3% 99.0%  
27 0.3% 98.7%  
28 0.2% 98%  
29 0.5% 98%  
30 1.0% 98%  
31 0.2% 97%  
32 2% 97%  
33 0.4% 95%  
34 9% 94%  
35 0.1% 86%  
36 4% 86%  
37 0.7% 81%  
38 8% 80%  
39 2% 72%  
40 6% 71%  
41 21% 65% Median
42 0.4% 44%  
43 13% 44%  
44 0.2% 31%  
45 5% 31%  
46 2% 26%  
47 1.3% 25%  
48 7% 23% Last Result
49 4% 17%  
50 5% 13%  
51 3% 7%  
52 3% 5%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.5% 1.3%  
55 0.4% 0.8%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9% Last Result
5 77% 98% Median
6 17% 21%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 266 488 100% 465–518 457–529 452–536 441–548
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 265 486 100% 462–516 455–527 449–534 439–545
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 261 480 100% 457–510 450–522 444–529 433–540
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 217 444 100% 419–475 411–486 404–495 393–507
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 213 439 100% 413–470 406–481 399–490 387–502
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 254 426 100% 406–452 401–461 396–467 388–477
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 250 420 100% 401–446 395–456 391–462 382–472
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 206 385 100% 363–412 356–422 350–428 341–439
Labour Party 202 379 99.9% 357–407 351–417 345–423 336–434
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 376 179 0% 154–199 144–205 139–210 132–216
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 417 165 0% 135–193 125–200 117–207 105–218
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 413 160 0% 130–187 119–195 112–202 100–212
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 369 125 0% 95–149 85–157 77–162 67–172
Conservative Party 365 120 0% 90–144 79–152 72–157 62–167

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100% Last Result
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0% 99.9%  
434 0% 99.8%  
435 0% 99.8%  
436 0% 99.8%  
437 0% 99.8%  
438 0% 99.7%  
439 0.1% 99.7%  
440 0.1% 99.6%  
441 0.1% 99.5%  
442 0.1% 99.5%  
443 0.2% 99.4%  
444 0.1% 99.2%  
445 0.2% 99.1%  
446 0.2% 98.9%  
447 0.1% 98.7%  
448 0.2% 98.6%  
449 0.2% 98%  
450 0.3% 98%  
451 0.4% 98%  
452 0.4% 98%  
453 0.2% 97%  
454 0.5% 97%  
455 0.4% 96%  
456 0.3% 96%  
457 0.9% 96%  
458 0.6% 95%  
459 0.8% 94%  
460 0.3% 93%  
461 0.8% 93%  
462 0.5% 92%  
463 0.8% 92%  
464 0.6% 91%  
465 1.1% 90%  
466 0.7% 89%  
467 1.2% 89%  
468 0.7% 87%  
469 2% 87%  
470 0.4% 85%  
471 1.4% 85%  
472 0.8% 83%  
473 2% 83%  
474 2% 81%  
475 2% 79%  
476 1.0% 77%  
477 2% 76%  
478 0.9% 73%  
479 2% 72%  
480 3% 70%  
481 2% 68%  
482 2% 66%  
483 2% 63%  
484 2% 61%  
485 1.1% 59%  
486 1.4% 58%  
487 4% 57%  
488 3% 53% Median
489 3% 50%  
490 2% 47%  
491 2% 45%  
492 2% 43%  
493 1.5% 41%  
494 1.4% 39%  
495 2% 38%  
496 2% 35%  
497 2% 34%  
498 1.5% 32%  
499 2% 30%  
500 2% 29%  
501 1.4% 27%  
502 2% 25%  
503 1.1% 24%  
504 1.2% 22%  
505 0.4% 21%  
506 1.0% 21%  
507 1.1% 20%  
508 1.3% 19%  
509 0.8% 17%  
510 1.3% 17%  
511 0.9% 15%  
512 0.6% 14%  
513 1.1% 14%  
514 0.6% 13%  
515 0.5% 12%  
516 0.6% 12%  
517 0.5% 11%  
518 0.8% 10%  
519 0.5% 10%  
520 0.6% 9%  
521 0.4% 9%  
522 0.6% 8%  
523 0.2% 8%  
524 0.4% 7%  
525 0.3% 7%  
526 0.5% 7%  
527 0.4% 6%  
528 0.4% 6%  
529 0.3% 5%  
530 0.5% 5%  
531 0.2% 5%  
532 0.4% 4%  
533 0.2% 4%  
534 0.4% 4%  
535 0.4% 3%  
536 0.5% 3%  
537 0.2% 2%  
538 0.3% 2%  
539 0.1% 2%  
540 0.3% 2%  
541 0.1% 1.5%  
542 0.2% 1.4%  
543 0.2% 1.2%  
544 0.1% 1.0%  
545 0.1% 0.9%  
546 0.1% 0.8%  
547 0.2% 0.7%  
548 0.1% 0.5%  
549 0.1% 0.4%  
550 0.1% 0.4%  
551 0% 0.3%  
552 0.1% 0.3%  
553 0% 0.2%  
554 0% 0.2%  
555 0% 0.2%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0.1%  
560 0% 0.1%  
561 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100% Last Result
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.8%  
433 0% 99.8%  
434 0% 99.8%  
435 0% 99.8%  
436 0.1% 99.7%  
437 0.1% 99.7%  
438 0.1% 99.6%  
439 0.1% 99.5%  
440 0.1% 99.4%  
441 0.1% 99.3%  
442 0.2% 99.2%  
443 0.2% 99.0%  
444 0.1% 98.8%  
445 0.2% 98.7%  
446 0.2% 98.5%  
447 0.2% 98%  
448 0.2% 98%  
449 0.6% 98%  
450 0.3% 97%  
451 0.4% 97%  
452 0.4% 97%  
453 0.3% 96%  
454 0.4% 96%  
455 1.0% 95%  
456 0.9% 95%  
457 0.4% 94%  
458 0.7% 93%  
459 0.4% 93%  
460 1.0% 92%  
461 0.6% 91%  
462 0.7% 91%  
463 0.7% 90%  
464 1.4% 89%  
465 0.8% 88%  
466 2% 87%  
467 0.2% 85%  
468 0.8% 85%  
469 0.8% 84%  
470 2% 83%  
471 2% 82%  
472 2% 80%  
473 1.1% 77%  
474 3% 76%  
475 1.0% 73%  
476 1.4% 72%  
477 3% 71%  
478 2% 68%  
479 2% 66%  
480 2% 64%  
481 2% 62%  
482 1.1% 60%  
483 1.2% 59%  
484 3% 57%  
485 4% 54% Median
486 3% 50%  
487 2% 47%  
488 2% 46%  
489 3% 44%  
490 2% 41%  
491 2% 40%  
492 1.0% 38%  
493 3% 37%  
494 2% 34%  
495 2% 32%  
496 1.4% 31%  
497 2% 29%  
498 2% 28%  
499 0.9% 26%  
500 2% 25%  
501 1.2% 23%  
502 0.6% 22%  
503 0.7% 21%  
504 1.2% 20%  
505 2% 19%  
506 0.5% 18%  
507 2% 17%  
508 0.4% 15%  
509 0.9% 15%  
510 1.2% 14%  
511 0.6% 13%  
512 0.5% 12%  
513 0.6% 12%  
514 0.5% 11%  
515 0.6% 11%  
516 0.5% 10%  
517 0.9% 10%  
518 0.4% 9%  
519 0.3% 8%  
520 0.6% 8%  
521 0.3% 7%  
522 0.2% 7%  
523 0.6% 7%  
524 0.4% 6%  
525 0.4% 6%  
526 0.3% 5%  
527 0.5% 5%  
528 0.2% 5%  
529 0.5% 4%  
530 0.1% 4%  
531 0.2% 4%  
532 0.6% 4%  
533 0.5% 3%  
534 0.3% 3%  
535 0.2% 2%  
536 0.2% 2%  
537 0.2% 2%  
538 0.2% 2%  
539 0.2% 1.4%  
540 0.2% 1.2%  
541 0.1% 1.0%  
542 0.2% 1.0%  
543 0.1% 0.8%  
544 0.2% 0.7%  
545 0.1% 0.6%  
546 0% 0.5%  
547 0.1% 0.4%  
548 0% 0.3%  
549 0% 0.3%  
550 0% 0.2%  
551 0% 0.2%  
552 0% 0.2%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100% Last Result
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.8%  
428 0% 99.8%  
429 0.1% 99.8%  
430 0% 99.7%  
431 0.1% 99.7%  
432 0.1% 99.6%  
433 0.1% 99.6%  
434 0.1% 99.5%  
435 0.1% 99.4%  
436 0.2% 99.3%  
437 0.2% 99.1%  
438 0.1% 98.9%  
439 0.1% 98.8%  
440 0.2% 98.7%  
441 0.2% 98%  
442 0.2% 98%  
443 0.2% 98%  
444 0.7% 98%  
445 0.4% 97%  
446 0.2% 97%  
447 0.4% 96%  
448 0.3% 96%  
449 0.5% 96%  
450 0.9% 95%  
451 1.0% 94%  
452 0.3% 93%  
453 0.7% 93%  
454 0.6% 92%  
455 0.8% 92%  
456 0.6% 91%  
457 0.7% 90%  
458 0.7% 90%  
459 1.3% 89%  
460 1.5% 88%  
461 1.0% 86%  
462 0.3% 85%  
463 0.8% 85%  
464 0.9% 84%  
465 2% 83%  
466 3% 81%  
467 1.3% 79%  
468 2% 77%  
469 2% 76%  
470 1.3% 73%  
471 1.1% 72%  
472 3% 71%  
473 2% 68%  
474 2% 66%  
475 3% 64%  
476 1.4% 61%  
477 0.9% 59%  
478 2% 58%  
479 3% 57%  
480 4% 53% Median
481 2% 49%  
482 1.5% 47%  
483 2% 45%  
484 2% 43%  
485 2% 41%  
486 1.4% 39%  
487 1.1% 38%  
488 3% 37%  
489 2% 34%  
490 2% 32%  
491 1.3% 30%  
492 2% 29%  
493 0.9% 27%  
494 0.9% 26%  
495 2% 25%  
496 0.9% 23%  
497 0.7% 22%  
498 0.9% 21%  
499 1.0% 20%  
500 2% 19%  
501 1.0% 17%  
502 1.1% 16%  
503 0.6% 15%  
504 1.0% 15%  
505 0.9% 14%  
506 0.6% 13%  
507 0.4% 12%  
508 0.6% 12%  
509 0.5% 11%  
510 0.6% 11%  
511 0.5% 10%  
512 1.0% 10%  
513 0.3% 9%  
514 0.3% 8%  
515 0.6% 8%  
516 0.3% 7%  
517 0.2% 7%  
518 0.7% 7%  
519 0.5% 6%  
520 0.3% 6%  
521 0.3% 5%  
522 0.4% 5%  
523 0.2% 5%  
524 0.4% 4%  
525 0.1% 4%  
526 0.1% 4%  
527 0.6% 4%  
528 0.5% 3%  
529 0.3% 3%  
530 0.2% 2%  
531 0.2% 2%  
532 0.2% 2%  
533 0.2% 2%  
534 0.2% 1.4%  
535 0.2% 1.2%  
536 0.1% 1.0%  
537 0.1% 0.9%  
538 0.1% 0.8%  
539 0.1% 0.7%  
540 0.1% 0.6%  
541 0% 0.4%  
542 0.1% 0.4%  
543 0% 0.3%  
544 0% 0.3%  
545 0% 0.2%  
546 0% 0.2%  
547 0% 0.2%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100% Last Result
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.8%  
386 0% 99.8%  
387 0% 99.8%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0% 99.7%  
390 0% 99.7%  
391 0.1% 99.7%  
392 0.1% 99.6%  
393 0.1% 99.5%  
394 0.1% 99.4%  
395 0.1% 99.4%  
396 0.1% 99.2%  
397 0.1% 99.1%  
398 0.2% 98.9%  
399 0.1% 98.7%  
400 0.1% 98.6%  
401 0.2% 98%  
402 0.2% 98%  
403 0.3% 98%  
404 0.5% 98%  
405 0.4% 97%  
406 0.2% 97%  
407 0.2% 97%  
408 0.4% 97%  
409 0.3% 96%  
410 0.5% 96%  
411 0.5% 95%  
412 0.6% 95%  
413 0.6% 94%  
414 1.2% 94%  
415 0.7% 92%  
416 0.6% 92%  
417 0.7% 91%  
418 0.3% 90%  
419 0.6% 90%  
420 2% 89%  
421 0.6% 88%  
422 0.5% 87%  
423 2% 87%  
424 1.0% 84%  
425 1.1% 83%  
426 0.9% 82%  
427 0.5% 81%  
428 1.3% 81%  
429 2% 79%  
430 1.1% 78%  
431 1.5% 77%  
432 2% 75%  
433 2% 74%  
434 3% 71%  
435 1.2% 68%  
436 2% 67%  
437 2% 66%  
438 1.4% 63%  
439 2% 62%  
440 2% 60%  
441 2% 57%  
442 2% 56%  
443 2% 53%  
444 2% 51% Median
445 2% 50%  
446 3% 48%  
447 3% 45%  
448 1.5% 42%  
449 0.7% 41%  
450 3% 40%  
451 2% 37%  
452 1.3% 36%  
453 2% 34%  
454 1.2% 33%  
455 2% 31%  
456 1.1% 30%  
457 2% 28%  
458 1.2% 27%  
459 1.3% 25%  
460 2% 24%  
461 0.9% 23%  
462 1.0% 22%  
463 1.3% 21%  
464 1.3% 19%  
465 0.9% 18%  
466 0.9% 17%  
467 0.8% 16%  
468 1.1% 15%  
469 0.7% 14%  
470 0.4% 14%  
471 0.7% 13%  
472 0.4% 13%  
473 1.1% 12%  
474 0.5% 11%  
475 0.8% 11%  
476 0.6% 10%  
477 0.5% 9%  
478 0.4% 9%  
479 0.5% 8%  
480 0.5% 8%  
481 0.7% 7%  
482 0.4% 7%  
483 0.2% 6%  
484 0.4% 6%  
485 0.3% 6%  
486 0.4% 5%  
487 0.4% 5%  
488 0.3% 5%  
489 0.2% 4%  
490 0.2% 4%  
491 0.6% 4%  
492 0.3% 3%  
493 0.4% 3%  
494 0.2% 3%  
495 0.3% 3%  
496 0.2% 2%  
497 0.1% 2%  
498 0.2% 2%  
499 0.2% 2%  
500 0.2% 1.5%  
501 0.1% 1.3%  
502 0.1% 1.2%  
503 0.2% 1.1%  
504 0.1% 0.9%  
505 0.1% 0.8%  
506 0.1% 0.7%  
507 0.1% 0.5%  
508 0.1% 0.5%  
509 0.1% 0.4%  
510 0.1% 0.4%  
511 0% 0.3%  
512 0% 0.3%  
513 0.1% 0.3%  
514 0% 0.2%  
515 0% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100% Last Result
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.8%  
381 0% 99.8%  
382 0% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0% 99.7%  
385 0% 99.7%  
386 0.1% 99.7%  
387 0.1% 99.6%  
388 0.1% 99.5%  
389 0.1% 99.4%  
390 0.2% 99.3%  
391 0.1% 99.2%  
392 0.1% 99.0%  
393 0.2% 98.9%  
394 0.1% 98.7%  
395 0.3% 98.6%  
396 0.1% 98%  
397 0.2% 98%  
398 0.2% 98%  
399 0.6% 98%  
400 0.3% 97%  
401 0.3% 97%  
402 0.2% 97%  
403 0.5% 96%  
404 0.3% 96%  
405 0.4% 96%  
406 0.5% 95%  
407 0.6% 95%  
408 0.8% 94%  
409 0.9% 93%  
410 0.9% 92%  
411 0.4% 91%  
412 0.7% 91%  
413 0.5% 90%  
414 0.5% 90%  
415 2% 89%  
416 0.4% 88%  
417 0.7% 87%  
418 3% 86%  
419 0.9% 84%  
420 0.9% 83%  
421 0.9% 82%  
422 0.7% 81%  
423 1.3% 80%  
424 2% 79%  
425 2% 77%  
426 1.2% 76%  
427 1.5% 74%  
428 2% 73%  
429 3% 71%  
430 1.1% 68%  
431 1.4% 67%  
432 2% 66%  
433 1.4% 63%  
434 3% 62%  
435 2% 59%  
436 1.2% 57%  
437 3% 56%  
438 2% 53%  
439 2% 51% Median
440 1.5% 49%  
441 3% 48%  
442 3% 45%  
443 1.1% 42%  
444 0.8% 41%  
445 3% 40%  
446 2% 37%  
447 1.2% 35%  
448 2% 34%  
449 2% 32%  
450 1.1% 30%  
451 0.9% 29%  
452 2% 28%  
453 1.4% 27%  
454 1.4% 25%  
455 1.2% 24%  
456 1.0% 23%  
457 1.1% 22%  
458 2% 20%  
459 0.9% 19%  
460 1.0% 18%  
461 1.1% 17%  
462 0.6% 16%  
463 1.2% 15%  
464 0.6% 14%  
465 0.4% 14%  
466 0.9% 13%  
467 0.4% 12%  
468 1.0% 12%  
469 0.5% 11%  
470 0.8% 10%  
471 0.5% 10%  
472 0.6% 9%  
473 0.4% 9%  
474 0.5% 8%  
475 0.5% 8%  
476 0.6% 7%  
477 0.3% 7%  
478 0.3% 6%  
479 0.4% 6%  
480 0.3% 6%  
481 0.3% 5%  
482 0.4% 5%  
483 0.3% 5%  
484 0.2% 4%  
485 0.2% 4%  
486 0.6% 4%  
487 0.4% 3%  
488 0.3% 3%  
489 0.2% 3%  
490 0.3% 3%  
491 0.2% 2%  
492 0.1% 2%  
493 0.2% 2%  
494 0.2% 2%  
495 0.2% 1.4%  
496 0.1% 1.3%  
497 0.1% 1.2%  
498 0.2% 1.1%  
499 0.1% 0.9%  
500 0.1% 0.7%  
501 0.1% 0.6%  
502 0.1% 0.5%  
503 0.1% 0.5%  
504 0.1% 0.4%  
505 0.1% 0.3%  
506 0% 0.3%  
507 0% 0.3%  
508 0.1% 0.3%  
509 0% 0.2%  
510 0% 0.2%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100% Last Result
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.8%  
383 0% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0% 99.7%  
386 0.1% 99.7%  
387 0.1% 99.6%  
388 0.1% 99.5%  
389 0.1% 99.4%  
390 0.1% 99.3%  
391 0.2% 99.2%  
392 0.3% 99.0%  
393 0.3% 98.7%  
394 0.2% 98%  
395 0.4% 98%  
396 0.4% 98%  
397 0.7% 97%  
398 0.8% 97%  
399 0.3% 96%  
400 0.6% 96%  
401 0.8% 95%  
402 0.8% 94%  
403 0.9% 93%  
404 1.1% 93%  
405 0.7% 91%  
406 1.1% 91%  
407 0.5% 90%  
408 0.5% 89%  
409 1.0% 89%  
410 1.2% 88%  
411 1.0% 87%  
412 2% 85%  
413 2% 84%  
414 1.5% 82%  
415 2% 81%  
416 2% 79%  
417 2% 77%  
418 2% 75%  
419 2% 72%  
420 2% 70%  
421 3% 68%  
422 4% 65%  
423 3% 61%  
424 3% 58%  
425 4% 55% Median
426 4% 51%  
427 1.2% 47%  
428 3% 46%  
429 2% 43%  
430 3% 41%  
431 3% 39%  
432 2% 36%  
433 3% 34%  
434 2% 31%  
435 0.8% 29%  
436 2% 28%  
437 2% 27%  
438 1.0% 25%  
439 3% 24%  
440 1.0% 21%  
441 2% 20%  
442 0.8% 18%  
443 0.7% 17%  
444 1.4% 16%  
445 1.1% 15%  
446 1.1% 14%  
447 0.6% 13%  
448 0.4% 12%  
449 0.3% 11%  
450 0.8% 11%  
451 0.4% 10%  
452 0.3% 10%  
453 0.3% 10%  
454 0.2% 9%  
455 1.1% 9%  
456 0.5% 8%  
457 0.4% 8%  
458 0.7% 7%  
459 0.5% 7%  
460 0.7% 6%  
461 0.5% 5%  
462 0.5% 5%  
463 0.3% 4%  
464 0.2% 4%  
465 0.6% 4%  
466 0.6% 3%  
467 0.4% 3%  
468 0.3% 2%  
469 0.1% 2%  
470 0.3% 2%  
471 0.3% 2%  
472 0.3% 1.3%  
473 0.1% 1.0%  
474 0.2% 0.9%  
475 0.1% 0.7%  
476 0.1% 0.6%  
477 0.1% 0.5%  
478 0.1% 0.4%  
479 0.1% 0.4%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100% Last Result
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.8%  
378 0% 99.8%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0% 99.7%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.1% 99.5%  
383 0.1% 99.5%  
384 0.1% 99.4%  
385 0.1% 99.2%  
386 0.2% 99.1%  
387 0.4% 98.9%  
388 0.3% 98.5%  
389 0.3% 98%  
390 0.4% 98%  
391 0.3% 98%  
392 0.7% 97%  
393 0.9% 97%  
394 0.3% 96%  
395 0.6% 95%  
396 0.7% 95%  
397 1.0% 94%  
398 0.8% 93%  
399 1.1% 92%  
400 0.6% 91%  
401 1.2% 91%  
402 0.5% 90%  
403 0.9% 89%  
404 0.8% 88%  
405 1.1% 87%  
406 0.9% 86%  
407 2% 85%  
408 1.1% 83%  
409 1.3% 82%  
410 3% 81%  
411 2% 78%  
412 2% 76%  
413 3% 75%  
414 2% 72%  
415 3% 70%  
416 2% 67%  
417 4% 64%  
418 3% 60%  
419 3% 57%  
420 5% 55% Median
421 3% 50%  
422 1.2% 47%  
423 3% 46%  
424 1.3% 42%  
425 3% 41%  
426 2% 38%  
427 2% 36%  
428 3% 34%  
429 2% 31%  
430 1.0% 29%  
431 2% 28%  
432 2% 26%  
433 1.3% 25%  
434 3% 23%  
435 1.2% 21%  
436 2% 19%  
437 0.7% 18%  
438 1.0% 17%  
439 1.4% 16%  
440 1.0% 14%  
441 1.0% 13%  
442 0.8% 12%  
443 0.3% 12%  
444 0.2% 11%  
445 0.8% 11%  
446 0.4% 10%  
447 0.2% 10%  
448 0.3% 10%  
449 0.3% 9%  
450 1.0% 9%  
451 0.5% 8%  
452 0.4% 8%  
453 0.7% 7%  
454 0.4% 6%  
455 0.6% 6%  
456 0.6% 5%  
457 0.4% 5%  
458 0.3% 4%  
459 0.2% 4%  
460 0.7% 4%  
461 0.5% 3%  
462 0.4% 3%  
463 0.4% 2%  
464 0.2% 2%  
465 0.3% 2%  
466 0.2% 2%  
467 0.3% 1.3%  
468 0.1% 1.0%  
469 0.2% 0.9%  
470 0.1% 0.7%  
471 0.1% 0.6%  
472 0.1% 0.5%  
473 0.1% 0.4%  
474 0.1% 0.4%  
475 0.1% 0.3%  
476 0% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.2%  
478 0% 0.2%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100% Last Result
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0.1% 99.5%  
342 0.1% 99.4%  
343 0.1% 99.3%  
344 0.2% 99.3%  
345 0.1% 99.0%  
346 0.2% 98.9%  
347 0.1% 98.7%  
348 0.4% 98.6%  
349 0.3% 98%  
350 0.4% 98%  
351 0.3% 97%  
352 0.5% 97%  
353 0.3% 97%  
354 0.3% 96%  
355 0.4% 96%  
356 1.0% 96%  
357 0.3% 95%  
358 0.6% 94%  
359 0.9% 94%  
360 0.8% 93%  
361 0.7% 92%  
362 0.7% 91%  
363 1.4% 90%  
364 1.5% 89%  
365 0.6% 88%  
366 0.8% 87%  
367 0.8% 86%  
368 3% 85%  
369 1.4% 82%  
370 0.7% 81%  
371 0.8% 80%  
372 2% 80%  
373 1.3% 77%  
374 2% 76%  
375 2% 74%  
376 2% 72%  
377 3% 70%  
378 3% 68%  
379 3% 65%  
380 3% 63%  
381 3% 60%  
382 2% 57%  
383 2% 55%  
384 2% 52% Median
385 3% 50%  
386 1.4% 47%  
387 1.4% 46%  
388 4% 45%  
389 2% 41%  
390 4% 39%  
391 2% 35%  
392 0.8% 34%  
393 1.0% 33%  
394 2% 32%  
395 2% 30%  
396 4% 28%  
397 0.7% 24%  
398 1.4% 23%  
399 0.9% 22%  
400 1.2% 21%  
401 1.1% 20%  
402 1.5% 19%  
403 2% 17%  
404 0.6% 16%  
405 0.3% 15%  
406 0.3% 15%  
407 1.0% 14%  
408 1.0% 13%  
409 1.1% 13%  
410 0.9% 11%  
411 0.3% 10%  
412 0.2% 10%  
413 1.1% 10%  
414 0.7% 9%  
415 0.6% 8%  
416 0.4% 8%  
417 0.5% 7%  
418 0.4% 7%  
419 0.2% 6%  
420 0.3% 6%  
421 0.5% 6%  
422 0.4% 5%  
423 0.4% 5%  
424 0.6% 4%  
425 0.3% 4%  
426 0.2% 3%  
427 0.5% 3%  
428 0.2% 3%  
429 0.3% 2%  
430 0.3% 2%  
431 0.2% 2%  
432 0.2% 2%  
433 0.2% 1.5%  
434 0.1% 1.3%  
435 0.2% 1.1%  
436 0.1% 1.0%  
437 0.1% 0.8%  
438 0.1% 0.7%  
439 0.1% 0.6%  
440 0.1% 0.5%  
441 0% 0.4%  
442 0% 0.4%  
443 0% 0.3%  
444 0% 0.3%  
445 0.1% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100% Last Result
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.8%  
331 0% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0.1% 99.6%  
336 0.2% 99.5%  
337 0% 99.3%  
338 0.1% 99.3%  
339 0.2% 99.2%  
340 0.2% 99.0%  
341 0.2% 98.8%  
342 0.3% 98.6%  
343 0.2% 98%  
344 0.4% 98%  
345 0.4% 98%  
346 0.4% 97%  
347 0.5% 97%  
348 0.4% 96%  
349 0.3% 96%  
350 0.4% 96%  
351 0.9% 95%  
352 0.3% 94%  
353 0.8% 94%  
354 1.0% 93%  
355 0.6% 92%  
356 0.7% 92%  
357 1.0% 91%  
358 1.2% 90%  
359 1.4% 89%  
360 0.6% 87%  
361 1.0% 87%  
362 1.0% 86%  
363 3% 85%  
364 1.2% 82%  
365 0.6% 81%  
366 1.2% 80%  
367 2% 79%  
368 2% 77%  
369 2% 75%  
370 1.3% 73%  
371 2% 72%  
372 3% 70%  
373 3% 67%  
374 3% 65%  
375 3% 62%  
376 2% 59%  
377 3% 57%  
378 2% 54%  
379 2% 52% Median
380 3% 50%  
381 1.2% 47%  
382 3% 46%  
383 3% 43%  
384 2% 40%  
385 3% 39%  
386 2% 35%  
387 0.7% 33%  
388 1.1% 33%  
389 2% 32%  
390 2% 30%  
391 4% 28%  
392 0.9% 24%  
393 1.4% 23%  
394 0.9% 22%  
395 1.3% 21%  
396 0.8% 19%  
397 1.4% 19%  
398 2% 17%  
399 0.4% 15%  
400 0.2% 15%  
401 0.4% 15%  
402 1.0% 14%  
403 0.8% 13%  
404 1.2% 12%  
405 0.8% 11%  
406 0.3% 10%  
407 0.2% 10%  
408 1.2% 10%  
409 0.7% 9%  
410 0.6% 8%  
411 0.3% 7%  
412 0.4% 7%  
413 0.4% 7%  
414 0.3% 6%  
415 0.3% 6%  
416 0.6% 6%  
417 0.2% 5%  
418 0.4% 5%  
419 0.7% 4%  
420 0.3% 4%  
421 0.1% 3%  
422 0.5% 3%  
423 0.3% 3%  
424 0.3% 2%  
425 0.3% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.1% 2%  
428 0.2% 1.5%  
429 0.1% 1.2%  
430 0.2% 1.1%  
431 0.1% 1.0%  
432 0.1% 0.8%  
433 0.1% 0.7%  
434 0.1% 0.6%  
435 0.1% 0.5%  
436 0% 0.4%  
437 0% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.3%  
440 0.1% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.7%  
130 0.1% 99.7%  
131 0.1% 99.6%  
132 0.2% 99.5%  
133 0.2% 99.3%  
134 0.1% 99.1%  
135 0.5% 99.0%  
136 0.1% 98.5%  
137 0.2% 98%  
138 0.4% 98%  
139 0.9% 98%  
140 0.2% 97%  
141 0.4% 97%  
142 0.5% 96%  
143 0.2% 96%  
144 0.8% 96%  
145 0.2% 95%  
146 0.7% 95%  
147 0.4% 94%  
148 0.8% 93%  
149 0.5% 93%  
150 0.8% 92%  
151 0.2% 91%  
152 0.9% 91%  
153 0.2% 90%  
154 0.1% 90%  
155 0.6% 90%  
156 0.2% 89%  
157 0.3% 89%  
158 0.2% 89%  
159 0.8% 89%  
160 1.4% 88%  
161 2% 87%  
162 1.3% 85%  
163 0.8% 84%  
164 1.2% 83%  
165 2% 82%  
166 1.2% 80%  
167 4% 79%  
168 0.4% 75%  
169 1.5% 75%  
170 1.2% 73%  
171 2% 72%  
172 2% 70%  
173 4% 68%  
174 2% 65%  
175 2% 62%  
176 2% 60%  
177 2% 58%  
178 3% 56%  
179 3% 53%  
180 4% 49% Median
181 4% 45%  
182 4% 41%  
183 2% 37%  
184 2% 35%  
185 4% 33%  
186 2% 30%  
187 2% 28%  
188 2% 26%  
189 1.2% 24%  
190 3% 23%  
191 3% 20%  
192 1.3% 17%  
193 1.1% 16%  
194 1.0% 15%  
195 0.6% 14%  
196 1.0% 13%  
197 0.9% 12%  
198 0.6% 11%  
199 0.9% 11%  
200 0.6% 10%  
201 1.0% 9%  
202 0.8% 8%  
203 1.0% 8%  
204 1.1% 7%  
205 0.9% 5%  
206 0.6% 5%  
207 0.5% 4%  
208 0.4% 4%  
209 0.3% 3%  
210 0.9% 3%  
211 0.2% 2%  
212 0.3% 2%  
213 0.2% 1.4%  
214 0.3% 1.1%  
215 0.2% 0.9%  
216 0.1% 0.6%  
217 0.1% 0.5%  
218 0% 0.4%  
219 0.1% 0.3%  
220 0% 0.3%  
221 0% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.2%  
223 0% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.8%  
100 0% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0% 99.7%  
103 0% 99.7%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 0.1% 99.5%  
106 0.2% 99.5%  
107 0.1% 99.3%  
108 0.2% 99.2%  
109 0.1% 99.1%  
110 0.2% 99.0%  
111 0.1% 98.8%  
112 0.2% 98.6%  
113 0.2% 98%  
114 0.2% 98%  
115 0.3% 98%  
116 0.1% 98%  
117 0.2% 98%  
118 0.3% 97%  
119 0.4% 97%  
120 0.4% 97%  
121 0.3% 96%  
122 0.5% 96%  
123 0.1% 96%  
124 0.4% 95%  
125 0.4% 95%  
126 0.2% 95%  
127 0.2% 94%  
128 0.5% 94%  
129 0.4% 94%  
130 0.6% 93%  
131 0.3% 93%  
132 0.3% 92%  
133 0.7% 92%  
134 0.5% 91%  
135 1.0% 91%  
136 0.5% 90%  
137 1.1% 89%  
138 0.2% 88%  
139 0.5% 88%  
140 0.5% 88%  
141 0.6% 87%  
142 1.1% 87%  
143 0.7% 85%  
144 0.9% 85%  
145 1.0% 84%  
146 1.4% 83%  
147 1.1% 81%  
148 2% 80%  
149 0.9% 79%  
150 2% 78%  
151 1.3% 76%  
152 0.9% 75%  
153 0.9% 74%  
154 2% 73%  
155 1.0% 71%  
156 2% 70%  
157 2% 68%  
158 2% 67%  
159 1.4% 65%  
160 1.2% 64%  
161 3% 63%  
162 0.8% 60%  
163 3% 59%  
164 3% 56%  
165 3% 53%  
166 2% 50% Median
167 1.3% 48%  
168 0.7% 47%  
169 2% 46%  
170 3% 44%  
171 2% 41%  
172 1.4% 38%  
173 2% 37%  
174 2% 35%  
175 2% 34%  
176 2% 31%  
177 3% 30%  
178 0.8% 27%  
179 0.7% 26%  
180 1.0% 25%  
181 2% 24%  
182 2% 22%  
183 0.9% 21%  
184 1.5% 20%  
185 1.0% 18%  
186 1.1% 17%  
187 2% 16%  
188 0.4% 14%  
189 0.9% 14%  
190 0.5% 13%  
191 0.8% 12%  
192 2% 12%  
193 1.1% 10%  
194 0.4% 9%  
195 0.8% 9%  
196 0.3% 8%  
197 0.7% 7%  
198 0.8% 7%  
199 0.6% 6%  
200 0.7% 5%  
201 0.4% 5%  
202 0.3% 4%  
203 0.3% 4%  
204 0.4% 4%  
205 0.3% 3%  
206 0.4% 3%  
207 0.4% 3%  
208 0.4% 2%  
209 0.2% 2%  
210 0.1% 2%  
211 0.1% 2%  
212 0.2% 1.4%  
213 0.3% 1.2%  
214 0.1% 1.0%  
215 0.1% 0.8%  
216 0.2% 0.8%  
217 0.1% 0.6%  
218 0.1% 0.5%  
219 0% 0.4%  
220 0.1% 0.4%  
221 0% 0.3%  
222 0% 0.3%  
223 0% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.2%  
225 0% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.8%  
95 0% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0% 99.7%  
98 0% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.6%  
100 0.1% 99.5%  
101 0.2% 99.5%  
102 0.1% 99.3%  
103 0.2% 99.2%  
104 0.1% 99.0%  
105 0.2% 98.9%  
106 0.1% 98.8%  
107 0.2% 98.6%  
108 0.2% 98%  
109 0.2% 98%  
110 0.3% 98%  
111 0.2% 98%  
112 0.2% 98%  
113 0.3% 97%  
114 0.4% 97%  
115 0.4% 97%  
116 0.3% 96%  
117 0.4% 96%  
118 0.1% 96%  
119 0.4% 95%  
120 0.5% 95%  
121 0.2% 95%  
122 0.2% 94%  
123 0.6% 94%  
124 0.3% 94%  
125 0.6% 93%  
126 0.3% 93%  
127 0.2% 92%  
128 0.7% 92%  
129 0.5% 91%  
130 1.0% 91%  
131 0.5% 90%  
132 1.1% 89%  
133 0.3% 88%  
134 0.4% 88%  
135 0.5% 88%  
136 0.9% 87%  
137 1.0% 86%  
138 0.7% 85%  
139 0.7% 85%  
140 1.1% 84%  
141 1.5% 83%  
142 1.4% 81%  
143 1.1% 80%  
144 1.0% 79%  
145 1.4% 78%  
146 1.4% 76%  
147 1.0% 75%  
148 1.0% 74%  
149 2% 73%  
150 0.8% 70%  
151 2% 70%  
152 1.3% 68%  
153 2% 67%  
154 2% 65%  
155 1.2% 63%  
156 3% 62%  
157 1.2% 59%  
158 3% 58%  
159 3% 55%  
160 3% 52%  
161 1.5% 49% Median
162 1.2% 48%  
163 1.2% 47%  
164 2% 46%  
165 4% 44%  
166 2% 40%  
167 1.2% 38%  
168 2% 37%  
169 1.2% 34%  
170 2% 33%  
171 2% 31%  
172 3% 29%  
173 0.8% 27%  
174 1.0% 26%  
175 0.8% 25%  
176 3% 24%  
177 1.1% 21%  
178 0.9% 20%  
179 1.5% 19%  
180 0.9% 18%  
181 2% 17%  
182 1.1% 15%  
183 0.6% 14%  
184 0.8% 14%  
185 0.5% 13%  
186 1.0% 12%  
187 2% 11%  
188 1.0% 10%  
189 0.7% 9%  
190 0.5% 8%  
191 0.3% 8%  
192 0.7% 7%  
193 1.0% 7%  
194 0.3% 6%  
195 0.7% 5%  
196 0.3% 5%  
197 0.3% 4%  
198 0.4% 4%  
199 0.3% 3%  
200 0.2% 3%  
201 0.4% 3%  
202 0.4% 3%  
203 0.5% 2%  
204 0.1% 2%  
205 0.2% 2%  
206 0.1% 1.4%  
207 0.2% 1.3%  
208 0.2% 1.1%  
209 0.1% 1.0%  
210 0.1% 0.8%  
211 0.1% 0.7%  
212 0.1% 0.6%  
213 0.1% 0.5%  
214 0.1% 0.4%  
215 0% 0.3%  
216 0% 0.3%  
217 0% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.2%  
219 0% 0.2%  
220 0% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.8%  
63 0% 99.8%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 0.1% 99.7%  
66 0.1% 99.6%  
67 0.1% 99.5%  
68 0.1% 99.4%  
69 0.1% 99.3%  
70 0.1% 99.2%  
71 0.1% 99.1%  
72 0.3% 98.9%  
73 0.2% 98.7%  
74 0.3% 98%  
75 0.2% 98%  
76 0.3% 98%  
77 0.2% 98%  
78 0.4% 97%  
79 0.4% 97%  
80 0.1% 97%  
81 0.5% 96%  
82 0.4% 96%  
83 0.2% 96%  
84 0.2% 95%  
85 0.4% 95%  
86 0.6% 95%  
87 0.3% 94%  
88 0.3% 94%  
89 0.4% 93%  
90 0.2% 93%  
91 0.4% 93%  
92 0.5% 92%  
93 0.5% 92%  
94 1.0% 91%  
95 0.8% 90%  
96 0.4% 90%  
97 0.4% 89%  
98 0.3% 89%  
99 0.9% 89%  
100 0.7% 88%  
101 1.1% 87%  
102 0.3% 86%  
103 1.2% 86%  
104 0.7% 84%  
105 2% 84%  
106 0.8% 82%  
107 1.2% 81%  
108 0.7% 80%  
109 1.0% 79%  
110 2% 78%  
111 2% 76%  
112 2% 74%  
113 0.9% 73%  
114 1.3% 72%  
115 2% 70%  
116 2% 69%  
117 2% 67%  
118 3% 66%  
119 1.0% 63%  
120 3% 62%  
121 1.3% 58%  
122 2% 57%  
123 2% 55%  
124 1.5% 52%  
125 4% 51% Median
126 3% 47%  
127 1.2% 44%  
128 2% 42%  
129 2% 41%  
130 2% 39%  
131 3% 37%  
132 2% 34%  
133 2% 32%  
134 2% 30%  
135 1.2% 28%  
136 2% 27%  
137 1.2% 25%  
138 2% 23%  
139 1.5% 22%  
140 1.0% 20%  
141 2% 19%  
142 0.8% 18%  
143 1.5% 17%  
144 1.2% 15%  
145 0.7% 14%  
146 1.1% 13%  
147 0.7% 12%  
148 1.0% 12%  
149 0.8% 11%  
150 0.9% 10%  
151 0.8% 9%  
152 0.6% 8%  
153 0.2% 7%  
154 1.0% 7%  
155 0.4% 6%  
156 0.7% 6%  
157 0.8% 5%  
158 0.5% 4%  
159 0.4% 4%  
160 0.3% 3%  
161 0.3% 3%  
162 0.5% 3%  
163 0.4% 2%  
164 0.2% 2%  
165 0.3% 2%  
166 0.2% 1.5%  
167 0.2% 1.3%  
168 0.2% 1.1%  
169 0.1% 0.9%  
170 0.1% 0.8%  
171 0.2% 0.7%  
172 0.1% 0.5%  
173 0.1% 0.4%  
174 0.1% 0.4%  
175 0% 0.3%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.2%  
179 0% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.8%  
58 0% 99.8%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0% 99.7%  
61 0.1% 99.6%  
62 0.1% 99.5%  
63 0.1% 99.4%  
64 0.1% 99.3%  
65 0.2% 99.2%  
66 0.1% 99.0%  
67 0.3% 98.9%  
68 0.2% 98.6%  
69 0.3% 98%  
70 0.1% 98%  
71 0.3% 98%  
72 0.3% 98%  
73 0.4% 97%  
74 0.4% 97%  
75 0.1% 97%  
76 0.5% 96%  
77 0.4% 96%  
78 0.3% 96%  
79 0.3% 95%  
80 0.5% 95%  
81 0.5% 95%  
82 0.3% 94%  
83 0.4% 94%  
84 0.3% 93%  
85 0.3% 93%  
86 0.3% 93%  
87 0.6% 92%  
88 0.4% 92%  
89 1.1% 91%  
90 0.8% 90%  
91 0.3% 90%  
92 0.4% 89%  
93 0.3% 89%  
94 0.9% 88%  
95 0.8% 88%  
96 0.9% 87%  
97 0.5% 86%  
98 1.4% 85%  
99 0.8% 84%  
100 2% 83%  
101 1.0% 82%  
102 1.0% 81%  
103 0.7% 80%  
104 1.1% 79%  
105 2% 78%  
106 2% 76%  
107 1.2% 74%  
108 2% 73%  
109 1.1% 71%  
110 1.5% 70%  
111 2% 69%  
112 2% 67%  
113 3% 65%  
114 2% 62%  
115 3% 61%  
116 1.3% 58%  
117 2% 57%  
118 2% 54%  
119 2% 52%  
120 5% 50% Median
121 3% 46%  
122 1.2% 43%  
123 2% 42%  
124 2% 40%  
125 2% 38%  
126 3% 36%  
127 2% 34%  
128 2% 32%  
129 2% 30%  
130 1.3% 28%  
131 2% 26%  
132 0.8% 24%  
133 2% 23%  
134 2% 22%  
135 1.4% 20%  
136 1.1% 18%  
137 0.8% 17%  
138 1.4% 17%  
139 2% 15%  
140 0.7% 14%  
141 0.9% 13%  
142 0.6% 12%  
143 1.2% 11%  
144 0.7% 10%  
145 0.9% 10%  
146 0.9% 9%  
147 0.4% 8%  
148 0.3% 7%  
149 0.9% 7%  
150 0.5% 6%  
151 0.6% 6%  
152 0.9% 5%  
153 0.5% 4%  
154 0.3% 4%  
155 0.2% 3%  
156 0.4% 3%  
157 0.5% 3%  
158 0.4% 2%  
159 0.2% 2%  
160 0.3% 2%  
161 0.1% 1.3%  
162 0.2% 1.2%  
163 0.2% 1.0%  
164 0.1% 0.9%  
165 0.2% 0.8%  
166 0.1% 0.6%  
167 0.1% 0.5%  
168 0.1% 0.4%  
169 0.1% 0.4%  
170 0% 0.3%  
171 0% 0.3%  
172 0% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations