Opinion Poll by Median, 1–30 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANO 2011 (PfE) | 0.0% | 30.5% | 28.7–32.4% | 28.2–33.0% | 27.7–33.4% | 26.9–34.4% |
| Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.7–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.1% | 9.5–14.8% |
| Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.5% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.2% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.2–13.2% |
| Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.3–10.9% | 6.9–11.5% |
| Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.1% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% |
| Sociální demokracie (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| TOP 09 (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.4% |
| Strana svobodných občanů (NI) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.4% |
| Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANO 2011 (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Sociální demokracie (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| TOP 09 (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Strana svobodných občanů (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ANO 2011 (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 56% | 99.7% | Median |
| 9 | 41% | 44% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 94% | 99.7% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 88% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 86% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 14% | 14% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 94% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Sociální demokracie (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
TOP 09 (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 76% | 79% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Strana svobodných občanů (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana svobodných občanů (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 29% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 71% | 71% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Sociální demokracie (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 83% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sociální demokracie (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Median
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–30 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.65%