Opinion Poll by NMS, 4–12 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 29.1% 27.5–30.8% 27.1–31.3% 26.7–31.7% 26.0–32.5%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 11.7% 10.6–12.9% 10.3–13.3% 10.0–13.6% 9.5–14.2%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 10.4% 9.4–11.6% 9.1–11.9% 8.9–12.2% 8.4–12.8%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 9.4% 8.4–10.5% 8.1–10.9% 7.9–11.1% 7.5–11.7%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 7.4% 6.6–8.5% 6.3–8.7% 6.1–9.0% 5.7–9.5%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 7.1% 6.2–8.1% 6.0–8.4% 5.8–8.7% 5.4–9.2%
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0.0% 5.8% 5.0–6.7% 4.8–7.0% 4.6–7.2% 4.3–7.7%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.3% 4.4–6.5% 4.3–6.8% 3.9–7.2%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.2–4.8%
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.2–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 10% 100%  
8 77% 90% Median
9 13% 13%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 83% 86% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 45% 100%  
3 55% 55% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 79% 99.9% Median
3 21% 21%  
4 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 88% 89% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 49% 99.9%  
2 51% 51% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana svobodných občanů (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 50% 88% Median
2 38% 38%  
3 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 61% 63% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 15% 100%  
3 50% 85%  
4 34% 35% Median
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 88% 89% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations