Opinion Poll by Phoenix Research, 1–31 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 26.8% 24.6–29.3% 23.9–30.0% 23.4–30.6% 22.4–31.8%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 14.5% 12.8–16.6% 12.3–17.1% 11.9–17.6% 11.1–18.6%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.7% 6.4–9.3% 6.1–9.7% 5.8–10.2% 5.2–11.0%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 7.2% 6.0–8.7% 5.6–9.2% 5.3–9.6% 4.8–10.4%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 5.8% 4.7–7.3% 4.4–7.7% 4.2–8.0% 3.7–8.8%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.4–6.9% 4.1–7.3% 3.9–7.6% 3.5–8.4%
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0.0% 4.1% 3.2–5.4% 3.0–5.7% 2.8–6.0% 2.4–6.7%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 3.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.3% 2.5–5.6% 2.1–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 7–11
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 0–3
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 23% 98%  
9 48% 75% Median
10 23% 28%  
11 4% 4% Majority
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.3% 100%  
4 41% 98.7%  
5 50% 58% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 2% 99.7%  
2 70% 98% Median
3 28% 28%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 99.0%  
2 79% 94% Median
3 15% 15%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 21% 82%  
2 60% 61% Median
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 26% 72% Median
2 45% 46%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana svobodných občanů (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 19%  
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 9%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–5 2–5 1–6

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 99.7%  
2 20% 99.0%  
3 29% 79% Median
4 41% 50%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations