Opinion Poll by Phoenix Research, 1–8 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 26.5% 24.7–28.3% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 14.8% 13.5–16.4% 13.1–16.8% 12.8–17.2% 12.1–17.9%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.3% 7.2–9.5% 7.0–9.8% 6.7–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.6%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Přísaha (PfE) 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 9% 100%  
8 42% 90% Median
9 47% 49%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.9% 100%  
4 70% 99.1% Median
5 29% 30%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 59% 99.8% Median
3 41% 41%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 10% 99.6%  
2 87% 89% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 36% 96%  
2 60% 60% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 69% 89% Median
2 21% 21%  
3 0% 0%  

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 57% 66% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 28% 37%  
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 11%  
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 1–4 1–5
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 3% 99.6%  
2 38% 97%  
3 37% 59% Median
4 20% 22%  
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations