Opinion Poll by STEM, 29 August–8 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 33.3% 31.5–35.2% 31.0–35.7% 30.6–36.2% 29.8–37.1%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 14.9% 13.6–16.4% 13.2–16.8% 12.9–17.1% 12.3–17.8%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.8% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.2% 6.3–9.5% 5.9–10.1%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 7.4% 6.5–8.5% 6.2–8.8% 6.0–9.1% 5.6–9.7%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.8% 5.6–8.1% 5.4–8.4% 5.0–8.9%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.8% 4.4–7.1% 4.0–7.6%
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.5–6.0% 3.2–6.4%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.3–5.2%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.4–4.5% 2.1–4.9%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 2.8% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.4%
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.7% 2.2–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.3%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.1%
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Přísaha (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 42% 99.6%  
10 46% 58% Median
11 11% 12% Majority
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 71% 90% Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 90% 93% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 61% 89% Median
3 29% 29%  
4 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100% Last Result
1 26% 99.1%  
2 73% 73% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 77% 92% Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0% 0%  

Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 21%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana zelených (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana svobodných občanů (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 10 15% 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–4 1–4 1–4
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) – Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 41% 99.6%  
10 43% 58% Median
11 15% 15% Majority
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 4% 99.9%  
2 20% 96%  
3 69% 77% Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0% 0%  

Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) – Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 21%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations