Opinion Poll by NMS, 3–10 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 32.1% 30.4–33.8% 30.0–34.2% 29.6–34.7% 28.8–35.5%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 11.3% 10.3–12.5% 10.0–12.9% 9.7–13.2% 9.2–13.8%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 9.2% 8.2–10.3% 7.9–10.6% 7.7–10.9% 7.3–11.4%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.8% 6.9–8.8% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.4% 6.1–9.9%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 7.7% 6.8–8.7% 6.6–9.0% 6.4–9.3% 6.0–9.8%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.6% 4.4–6.9% 4.0–7.3%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 5.2% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.3% 4.1–6.5% 3.8–7.0%
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.3% 3.6–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.2–6.2%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.3% 3.6–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.2–6.2%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.5–3.8%
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.6%
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.5%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.8% 1.1–3.1%
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 9 9 9 9–10 9–11
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–4
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Přísaha (PfE) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 95% 99.7% Median
10 3% 4%  
11 2% 2% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 93% 99.8% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 96% 100% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.3% 100%  
2 98.6% 98.7% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.7% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 11% 97%  
2 86% 86% Median
3 0% 0%  

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 95% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana svobodných občanů (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana zelených (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) 0 12 97% 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–12
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) – Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 9% 97% Majority
12 89% 89% Median
13 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 95% 100% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) – Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations