Opinion Poll by Median, 1–30 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 33.0% 31.2–35.0% 30.7–35.5% 30.2–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 11.5% 10.3–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.7%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.1% 7.0–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.3%
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–11
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 3 3 3 2–4 2–4
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Přísaha (PfE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 19% 99.5%  
10 42% 81% Median
11 39% 39% Majority
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 83% 98% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 92% 96% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 91% 99.7% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 12% 99.8%  
2 87% 88% Median
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 36%  
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana zelených (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 11 50% 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 13% 99.9%  
10 37% 87% Median
11 49% 50% Majority
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 85% 97% Median
4 12% 13%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations