Opinion Poll by Kantar for ČT24, 30 September–11 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 35.5% 33.6–37.5% 33.1–38.0% 32.6–38.5% 31.7–39.5%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 14.5% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.5% 12.5–16.8% 11.9–17.6%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.2% 10.4–15.9%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.3%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.4–4.0%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.4–4.0%
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–12
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Přísaha (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 100%  
10 27% 99.3%  
11 39% 73% Median, Majority
12 34% 34%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 79% 95% Median
5 16% 16%  
6 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 57% 100% Median
4 43% 43%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100% Last Result
1 55% 98.5% Median
2 43% 43%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 66% 68% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 25%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana svobodných občanů (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 11 73% 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–12
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) – Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 100%  
10 26% 99.3%  
11 39% 73% Median, Majority
12 34% 34%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 42% 100% Median
4 46% 58%  
5 12% 13%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy (NI) – Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations