Opinion Poll by NMS, 3–9 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 33.6% 31.7–35.5% 31.2–36.1% 30.7–36.6% 29.8–37.5%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 2 2 2 2 1–3
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Přísaha (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 30% 98%  
10 57% 68% Median
11 11% 12% Majority
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 29% 100%  
3 52% 71% Median
4 19% 19%  
5 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 3% 99.8%  
2 85% 97% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 96% 98% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 44% 83% Median
2 39% 39%  
3 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 68% 70% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 80% 83% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Stačilo! (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 61% 63% Median
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100% Last Result
1 67% 73% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana zelených (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana svobodných občanů (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) 0 11 62% 10–11 10–11 9–12 9–12
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–7
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 3% 100%  
10 35% 97%  
11 58% 62% Median, Majority
12 4% 4%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 2% 99.9%  
4 64% 98%  
5 27% 35% Median
6 7% 8%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Stačilo! (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 61% 63% Median
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations