Opinion Poll by Phoenix Research, 1–13 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 28.5% 26.8–30.4% 26.3–30.9% 25.9–31.3% 25.0–32.2%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 12.8% 11.6–14.3% 11.2–14.6% 10.9–15.0% 10.4–15.7%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 9.1% 8.1–10.4% 7.8–10.7% 7.5–11.0% 7.1–11.6%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 7.0–11.5%
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.0%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–5.9%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.7%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.5%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–11
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Přísaha (PfE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–2
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 20% 99.6%  
10 66% 79% Median
11 13% 13% Majority
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 85% 96% Median
5 10% 10%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 89% 91% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 90% 91% Median
4 1.2% 1.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Stačilo! (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 55% 77% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 8%  
2 1.4% 1.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 4%  
2 1.3% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 1.0%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 10 19% 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 17% 99.7%  
10 63% 82% Median
11 18% 19% Majority
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 87% 91% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Stačilo! (GUE/NGL)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 55% 77% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations