Opinion Poll by STEM for CNN Prima News, 3–7 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 33.9% 32.4–35.5% 32.0–36.0% 31.6–36.3% 30.9–37.1%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 9.4% 8.5–10.4% 8.2–10.7% 8.0–11.0% 7.6–11.5%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 8.1% 7.3–9.1% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.4–10.0%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 7.9% 7.1–8.9% 6.8–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.3–9.8%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.8% 6.0–7.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.6%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.6% 4.0–7.0%
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.3% 4.6–6.1% 4.4–6.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.0–6.9%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.5–6.0% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.8%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 2.9% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.2%
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–3.0%
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–3.0%
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 10 10–11 10–11 9–11 9–12
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 2 2 2 2 1–3
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Přísaha (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 4% 99.8%  
10 76% 96% Median
11 18% 19% Majority
12 1.3% 1.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 83% 100% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 97% 99.8% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 98.5% 99.4% Median
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 49% 99.9%  
2 51% 51% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 76% 83% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Stačilo! (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 79% 81% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 65% 67% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 62% 68% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana zelených (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana svobodných občanů (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) 0 11 70% 10–12 10–12 10–13 9–13
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 4 0% 3–4 2–5 2–5 2–5
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.1% 100%  
10 29% 98.9%  
11 53% 70% Median, Majority
12 14% 17%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 15% 90%  
4 66% 75% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Stačilo! (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 79% 81% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations