Opinion Poll by NMS, 9–13 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 32.3% 30.5–34.3% 29.9–34.8% 29.5–35.3% 28.6–36.2%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 12.4% 11.1–13.8% 10.8–14.2% 10.5–14.6% 9.9–15.3%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–11
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Přísaha (PfE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.4% 100%  
9 35% 98.5%  
10 53% 64% Median
11 11% 11% Majority
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 38% 99.2%  
4 61% 61% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 14% 99.6%  
2 79% 85% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 21% 96%  
2 75% 75% Median
3 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 54% 97% Median
2 42% 42%  
3 0% 0%  

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 70% 84% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Stačilo! (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 49% 53% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 47% 51% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 44% 45%  
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana zelených (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana svobodných občanů (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) 0 11 62% 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–6 3–6 3–6 3–6
Stačilo! (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.2% 100%  
10 36% 98.8%  
11 42% 62% Median, Majority
12 20% 21%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 7% 99.8%  
4 41% 93%  
5 38% 53% Median
6 14% 14%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Stačilo! (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 49% 53% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations