Opinion Poll by Lord Ashcroft Polls, 8–22 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 35.0% 33.2–36.8% 32.7–37.3% 32.3–37.8% 31.4–38.7%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 11.3% 10.1–12.5% 9.8–12.9% 9.6–13.2% 9.0–13.9%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.6–11.5% 8.4–11.8% 7.9–12.4%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 8.7% 7.8–9.9% 7.5–10.2% 7.2–10.5% 6.8–11.1%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.6–9.8% 6.2–10.3%
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) 0.0% 5.5% 4.8–6.5% 4.5–6.8% 4.4–7.0% 4.0–7.5%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.7% 4.3–6.9% 3.9–7.4%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.7% 3.8–7.2%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 3.7% 3.1–4.5% 2.9–4.8% 2.8–5.0% 2.5–5.4%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Česká strana národně sociální (*) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6%
Moravané (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 9 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Přísaha (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Česká strana národně sociální (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moravané (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 23% 100%  
9 73% 77% Median
10 5% 5%  
11 0.1% 0.1% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 25% 100%  
3 75% 75% Median
4 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 78% 100% Median
3 22% 22%  
4 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 82% 82% Median
3 0% 0%  

Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 82% 82% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 92% 92% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 71% 71% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Česká strana národně sociální (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká strana národně sociální (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Moravané (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moravané (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) 0 9 0.1% 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 22% 100%  
9 73% 78% Median
10 5% 5%  
11 0.1% 0.1% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 39% 98%  
4 58% 58% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations