Opinion Poll by NMS for Novinky, 24–28 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 29.5% 27.7–31.4% 27.2–32.0% 26.8–32.4% 25.9–33.4%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 13.1% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 11.8% 10.6–13.2% 10.2–13.6% 9.9–13.9% 9.4–14.6%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.2% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.2%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Česká strana národně sociální (*) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Moravané (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 3 3 3–4 2–4 2–4
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Česká strana národně sociální (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moravané (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 8% 100%  
7 50% 92% Median
8 40% 42%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 89% 95% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 26% 100%  
3 74% 74% Median
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 100%  
2 93% 99.3% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 22% 100%  
2 78% 78% Median
3 0% 0%  

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 44% 100%  
2 56% 56% Median
3 0% 0%  

Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 40% 99.9%  
2 60% 60% Median
3 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 42% 42%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 45% 46%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Česká strana národně sociální (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká strana národně sociální (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Moravané (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moravané (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 44% 98% Median
4 44% 54%  
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations