Opinion Poll by NMS, 5–10 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 31.4% 29.6–33.3% 29.1–33.8% 28.7–34.3% 27.8–35.2%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.4–15.9% 12.1–16.3% 11.5–17.0%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 13.5% 12.3–15.0% 11.9–15.4% 11.6–15.8% 11.0–16.5%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.8% 6.8–10.1% 6.3–10.7%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.6–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.9–10.2%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.7–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.1%
Naše Česko (*) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.1%
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.7–2.7%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.7–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 9 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–10
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 1–3
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Naše Česko (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Přísaha (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.0% 100%  
8 45% 99.0%  
9 52% 54% Median
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 44% 100%  
4 56% 56% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 65% 99.9% Median
4 34% 34%  
5 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 88% 88% Median
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 34% 99.9%  
2 66% 66% Median
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Naše Česko (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naše Česko (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana zelených (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) 0 10 26% 10–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4

ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 5% 100%  
10 69% 95%  
11 25% 26% Median, Majority
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 65% 99.9% Median
4 35% 35%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations