Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Václav Moravec, 11–14 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANO 2011 (PfE) | 0.0% | 31.5% | 30.0–33.0% | 29.6–33.5% | 29.2–33.8% | 28.5–34.6% |
| Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) | 0.0% | 14.9% | 13.8–16.1% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.2–16.7% | 12.7–17.3% |
| Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) | 0.0% | 14.5% | 13.4–15.7% | 13.1–16.0% | 12.8–16.3% | 12.3–16.9% |
| Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.5–9.3% | 7.2–9.5% | 7.0–9.8% | 6.6–10.3% |
| Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.5–7.1% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.5% | 4.8–7.9% |
| Motoristé sobě (PfE) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.8–5.2% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.2–5.9% |
| TOP 09 (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.2% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.9% |
| Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.6–4.4% | 2.4–4.7% |
| Naše Česko (*) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.0–4.3% |
| Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.4% |
| Strana svobodných občanů (NI) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.4% |
| Přísaha (PfE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–2.0% |
| Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–2.0% |
| Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Sociální demokracie (S&D) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Česká strana národně sociální (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
| Moravané (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANO 2011 (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9–10 |
| Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 |
| Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Motoristé sobě (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOP 09 (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naše Česko (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Strana svobodných občanů (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Přísaha (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sociální demokracie (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Česká strana národně sociální (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moravané (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ANO 2011 (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 99.2% | 100% | Median |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 99.4% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98.6% | 98.6% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Motoristé sobě (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
TOP 09 (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Naše Česko (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naše Česko (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Strana svobodných občanů (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana svobodných občanů (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Přísaha (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sociální demokracie (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Česká strana národně sociální (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká strana národně sociální (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Moravané (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moravané (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9–10 |
| Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Naše Česko () – Právo Respekt Odbornost () – Česká strana národně sociální (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sociální demokracie (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 99.2% | 100% | Median |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
Naše Česko () – Právo Respekt Odbornost () – Česká strana národně sociální (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sociální demokracie (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Václav Moravec
- Fieldwork period: 11–14 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1566
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.78%