Opinion Poll by NMS for Novinky.cz, 1–5 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0.0% 28.8% 27.1–30.7% 26.6–31.2% 26.1–31.7% 25.3–32.6%
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0.0% 18.8% 17.3–20.4% 16.9–20.9% 16.5–21.3% 15.8–22.1%
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0.0% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.6% 10.0–15.3%
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.5%
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–7.9% 4.6–8.5%
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.0% 4.5–7.3% 4.1–7.8%
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
TOP 09 (EPP) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Naše Česko (*) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.8%
Přísaha (PfE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.5%
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.7–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
Česká strana národně sociální (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.7%
Moravané (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–10 7–10
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Motoristé sobě (PfE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
TOP 09 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Naše Česko (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Přísaha (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana svobodných občanů (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Česká strana národně sociální (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moravané (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ANO 2011 (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 8% 100%  
8 72% 92% Median
9 17% 19%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 10% 100%  
5 72% 90% Median
6 17% 17%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Občanská demokratická strana (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Občanská demokratická strana (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 26% 99.6%  
4 74% 74% Median
5 0% 0%  

Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svoboda a přímá demokracie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 41% 100%  
2 54% 59% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká pirátská strana (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 26% 98.9%  
2 73% 73% Median
3 0% 0%  

Motoristé sobě (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Motoristé sobě (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 63% 66% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

TOP 09 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the TOP 09 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Naše Česko (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naše Česko (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Přísaha (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Přísaha (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana svobodných občanů (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana svobodných občanů (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Právo Respekt Odbornost (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Právo Respekt Odbornost (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy–Spojení demokraté - Sdružení nezávislých–Stačilo! (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana zelených (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana zelených (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Trikolóra hnutí občanů (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociální demokracie (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Česká strana národně sociální (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Česká strana národně sociální (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Moravané (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moravané (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE) 0 9 2% 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–11
Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Naše Česko () – Právo Respekt Odbornost () – Česká strana národně sociální (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Sociální demokracie (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

ANO 2011 (PfE) – Motoristé sobě (PfE) – Přísaha (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 25% 100%  
9 69% 75% Median
10 4% 6%  
11 2% 2% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) – Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová (EPP) – TOP 09 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 10% 100%  
5 72% 90% Median
6 17% 18%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Naše Česko () – Právo Respekt Odbornost () – Česká strana národně sociální (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sociální demokracie (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations