European Conservatives and Reformists
Members registered from 19 countries:
BE, BG, CY, CZ, DK, ES, FI, FR, GR, HR, IT, LT, LU, LV, NL, PL, RO, SE, SK
Seats
Last result: 61 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Current median: 82 seats (+21 seats)
At least one member in 16 countries have a median of 1 seat or more:
BE, BG, CY, CZ, DK, ES, FI, FR, GR, HR, IT, LV, PL, RO, SE, SK
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Area | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Conservatives and Reformists | EU | 61 | 82 | 76–87 | 75–89 | 73–90 | 70–92 |
| Fratelli d’Italia | IT | 23 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 | |
| Zjednoczona Prawica | PL | 18 | 15–21 | 15–21 | 15–21 | 14–21 | |
| Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor | RO | 8 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 5–11 | 4–11 | |
| Vox | ES | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | |
| Reconquête | FR | 6 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | |
| Sverigedemokraterna | SE | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie | BE-VLG | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | |
| Perussuomalaiset | FI | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | |
| Občanská demokratická strana | CZ | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | |
| Ελληνική Λύση | GR | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | |
| Danmarksdemokraterne | DK | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | |
| Most nezavisnih lista | HR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | LV | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | SK | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | |
| Εθνικό Λαϊκό Μέτωπο | CY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Има такъв народ | BG | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei | LU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Debout la France | FR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | NL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija | LT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | NL | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for European Conservatives and Reformists.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 2% | 97% | |
| 75 | 2% | 95% | |
| 76 | 3% | 93% | |
| 77 | 4% | 90% | |
| 78 | 6% | 85% | |
| 79 | 7% | 79% | |
| 80 | 8% | 72% | |
| 81 | 9% | 64% | |
| 82 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 83 | 9% | 45% | |
| 84 | 9% | 36% | |
| 85 | 8% | 27% | |
| 86 | 6% | 19% | |
| 87 | 5% | 13% | |
| 88 | 3% | 8% | |
| 89 | 2% | 5% | |
| 90 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |