Seat Projection for the European Parliament (EU27/705)
Seats | Voting Intentions | Technical Information
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Group | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European People’s Party | 188 | 176 | 169–183 | 167–184 | 165–186 | 161–188 |
| Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats | 136 | 125 | 119–131 | 117–132 | 116–133 | 113–136 |
| Patriots for Europe | 84 | 99 | 94–105 | 93–107 | 92–108 | 90–110 |
| European Conservatives and Reformists | 78 | 83 | 79–87 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 76–91 |
| Renew Europe | 77 | 69 | 65–74 | 64–75 | 63–76 | 61–78 |
| European United Left–Nordic Green Left | 46 | 57 | 53–60 | 52–62 | 51–63 | 50–65 |
| Europe of Sovereign Nations | 25 | 41 | 36–45 | 36–46 | 35–47 | 33–48 |
| Greens–European Free Alliance | 53 | 37 | 34–41 | 34–43 | 33–44 | 32–46 |
| Non-Inscrits | 32 | 22 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–27 | 15–29 |
| Parties currently not represented in the EP | 1 | 3 | 2–4 | 1–5 | 1–7 | 1–9 |
European People’s Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European People’s Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 166 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 167 | 2% | 96% | |
| 168 | 2% | 94% | |
| 169 | 3% | 91% | |
| 170 | 4% | 88% | |
| 171 | 4% | 85% | |
| 172 | 5% | 80% | |
| 173 | 6% | 75% | |
| 174 | 7% | 69% | |
| 175 | 7% | 62% | |
| 176 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 177 | 8% | 48% | |
| 178 | 7% | 40% | |
| 179 | 7% | 33% | |
| 180 | 6% | 26% | |
| 181 | 5% | 20% | |
| 182 | 4% | 14% | |
| 183 | 3% | 10% | |
| 184 | 2% | 7% | |
| 185 | 2% | 4% | |
| 186 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 187 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 117 | 2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 3% | 95% | |
| 119 | 4% | 92% | |
| 120 | 5% | 88% | |
| 121 | 6% | 83% | |
| 122 | 7% | 76% | |
| 123 | 8% | 69% | |
| 124 | 8% | 61% | |
| 125 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 126 | 8% | 44% | |
| 127 | 8% | 36% | |
| 128 | 7% | 28% | |
| 129 | 6% | 21% | |
| 130 | 5% | 15% | |
| 131 | 4% | 10% | |
| 132 | 3% | 7% | |
| 133 | 2% | 4% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Patriots for Europe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Patriots for Europe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 92 | 2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 3% | 97% | |
| 94 | 4% | 94% | |
| 95 | 6% | 90% | |
| 96 | 7% | 84% | |
| 97 | 9% | 77% | |
| 98 | 9% | 68% | |
| 99 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 100 | 9% | 49% | |
| 101 | 9% | 40% | |
| 102 | 8% | 31% | |
| 103 | 6% | 23% | |
| 104 | 5% | 17% | |
| 105 | 4% | 12% | |
| 106 | 3% | 8% | |
| 107 | 2% | 5% | |
| 108 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
European Conservatives and Reformists
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European Conservatives and Reformists page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 78 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 79 | 5% | 94% | |
| 80 | 8% | 89% | |
| 81 | 11% | 81% | |
| 82 | 13% | 70% | |
| 83 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 84 | 13% | 43% | |
| 85 | 11% | 30% | |
| 86 | 8% | 19% | |
| 87 | 5% | 12% | |
| 88 | 3% | 7% | |
| 89 | 2% | 4% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Renew Europe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renew Europe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 63 | 3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 5% | 95% | |
| 65 | 7% | 91% | |
| 66 | 9% | 84% | |
| 67 | 10% | 76% | |
| 68 | 10% | 66% | |
| 69 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 70 | 10% | 45% | |
| 71 | 9% | 35% | |
| 72 | 8% | 26% | |
| 73 | 6% | 17% | |
| 74 | 5% | 11% | |
| 75 | 3% | 6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 2% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Greens–European Free Alliance
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Greens–European Free Alliance page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 34 | 6% | 96% | |
| 35 | 11% | 89% | |
| 36 | 15% | 78% | |
| 37 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 38 | 15% | 47% | |
| 39 | 11% | 32% | |
| 40 | 7% | 21% | |
| 41 | 5% | 14% | |
| 42 | 3% | 9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 6% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
European United Left–Nordic Green Left
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European United Left–Nordic Green Left page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 52 | 4% | 97% | |
| 53 | 6% | 93% | |
| 54 | 9% | 87% | |
| 55 | 12% | 77% | |
| 56 | 14% | 65% | |
| 57 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 58 | 12% | 38% | |
| 59 | 9% | 26% | |
| 60 | 7% | 17% | |
| 61 | 4% | 10% | |
| 62 | 3% | 5% | |
| 63 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Europe of Sovereign Nations
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europe of Sovereign Nations page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 5% | 95% | |
| 37 | 7% | 90% | |
| 38 | 9% | 82% | |
| 39 | 10% | 73% | |
| 40 | 9% | 63% | |
| 41 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 42 | 10% | 44% | |
| 43 | 10% | 34% | |
| 44 | 9% | 24% | |
| 45 | 7% | 15% | |
| 46 | 4% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Non-Inscrits
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Non-Inscrits page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 17 | 2% | 98% | |
| 18 | 4% | 96% | |
| 19 | 7% | 92% | |
| 20 | 11% | 86% | |
| 21 | 14% | 75% | |
| 22 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 23 | 15% | 45% | |
| 24 | 12% | 30% | |
| 25 | 8% | 17% | |
| 26 | 5% | 9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parties currently not represented in the EP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parties currently not represented in the EP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 9% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 2 | 33% | 90% | |
| 3 | 36% | 57% | Median |
| 4 | 15% | 21% | |
| 5 | 2% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European People’s Party | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Patriots for Europe | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| European Conservatives and Reformists | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Renew Europe | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Greens–European Free Alliance | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| European United Left–Nordic Green Left | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Europe of Sovereign Nations | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Non-Inscrits | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Parties currently not represented in the EP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Technical Information
The seat and voting intentions projection for the European Parliament presented on this page was based on the averages of the most recent polls for the following countries:
| Country | No of Seats | No of Constituencies | Method | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria ⁰ | 19 | 1 | D’Hondt | 4% |
| Belgium: Flanders | 12 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Belgium: French Community ⁰ | 8 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Belgium: German-speaking constituency¹ | 1 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Bulgaria | 17 | 1 | Hare-Niemeyer | 5% |
| Croatia ⁰ | 12 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Cyprus ⁰ | 6 | 1 | Hare-Niemeyer | No |
| Czech Republic ⁰ | 21 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Denmark | 14 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Estonia | 7 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Finland | 14 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| France ⁰ | 79 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Germany | 96 | 1 | Sainte-Laguë | No |
| Greece | 21 | 1 | Droop | 3% |
| Hungary | 21 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Ireland | 13 | 3 | Single transferable vote² | N/A |
| Italy ⁰ | 76 | 1 | Hare-Niemeyer | 4% |
| Latvia | 8 | 1 | Sainte-Laguë | 5% |
| Lithuania ⁰ | 11 | 1 | Hare–Niemeyer | 5% |
| Luxembourg | 6 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Malta ⁰ | 6 | 1 | Single transferable vote² | N/A |
| Netherlands ⁰ | 29 | 1 | D’Hondt | 1/26 |
| Poland ⁰ | 52 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Portugal | 21 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Romania | 33 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Slovakia | 14 | 1 | Hagenbach-Bischoff | 5% |
| Slovenia | 8 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Spain | 59 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Sweden | 21 | 1 | Modified Sainte-Laguë | 4% |
| Total | 705 | 31 |
¹ No new opinion polls reported since the last European election; the results from the last European election are therefore used in the current projection for the European election.
² Implemented as D’Hondt.