Seat Projection for the European Parliament (EU27/705)
Seats | Voting Intentions | Technical Information
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Group | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European People’s Party | 187 | 182 | 176–187 | 175–189 | 173–190 | 170–193 |
| Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats | 147 | 137 | 131–142 | 130–143 | 129–145 | 126–147 |
| Renew Europe | 98 | 83 | 78–88 | 76–89 | 75–90 | 73–93 |
| Identity and Democracy | 76 | 82 | 77–86 | 76–87 | 75–88 | 74–90 |
| European Conservatives and Reformists | 61 | 82 | 76–87 | 75–89 | 73–90 | 70–92 |
| Greens–European Free Alliance | 67 | 49 | 44–55 | 43–56 | 41–57 | 39–59 |
| Non-Inscrits | 29 | 48 | 45–51 | 44–52 | 44–53 | 42–55 |
| European United Left–Nordic Green Left | 39 | 42 | 38–45 | 36–46 | 35–47 | 32–48 |
| Parties currently not represented in the EP | 0 | 3 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 1–7 | 1–8 |
European People’s Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European People’s Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 173 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 174 | 2% | 97% | |
| 175 | 3% | 95% | |
| 176 | 4% | 92% | |
| 177 | 5% | 89% | |
| 178 | 6% | 83% | |
| 179 | 8% | 77% | |
| 180 | 9% | 69% | |
| 181 | 9% | 61% | |
| 182 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 183 | 9% | 42% | |
| 184 | 8% | 33% | |
| 185 | 7% | 25% | |
| 186 | 6% | 18% | |
| 187 | 4% | 12% | Last Result |
| 188 | 3% | 8% | |
| 189 | 2% | 5% | |
| 190 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 129 | 2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 3% | 96% | |
| 131 | 4% | 93% | |
| 132 | 5% | 90% | |
| 133 | 7% | 84% | |
| 134 | 8% | 78% | |
| 135 | 9% | 70% | |
| 136 | 10% | 61% | |
| 137 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 138 | 9% | 42% | |
| 139 | 8% | 32% | |
| 140 | 7% | 24% | |
| 141 | 6% | 17% | |
| 142 | 4% | 12% | |
| 143 | 3% | 7% | |
| 144 | 2% | 5% | |
| 145 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Renew Europe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renew Europe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 75 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 76 | 2% | 97% | |
| 77 | 3% | 94% | |
| 78 | 5% | 91% | |
| 79 | 6% | 86% | |
| 80 | 8% | 80% | |
| 81 | 9% | 72% | |
| 82 | 10% | 64% | |
| 83 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 84 | 10% | 44% | |
| 85 | 9% | 34% | |
| 86 | 7% | 25% | |
| 87 | 6% | 18% | |
| 88 | 4% | 12% | |
| 89 | 3% | 8% | |
| 90 | 2% | 4% | |
| 91 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Greens–European Free Alliance
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Greens–European Free Alliance page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 42 | 2% | 97% | |
| 43 | 4% | 95% | |
| 44 | 5% | 91% | |
| 45 | 7% | 86% | |
| 46 | 8% | 79% | |
| 47 | 8% | 71% | |
| 48 | 8% | 63% | |
| 49 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 50 | 8% | 47% | |
| 51 | 8% | 39% | |
| 52 | 8% | 31% | |
| 53 | 7% | 24% | |
| 54 | 6% | 17% | |
| 55 | 4% | 11% | |
| 56 | 3% | 6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Identity and Democracy
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Identity and Democracy page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 75 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 76 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 77 | 5% | 94% | |
| 78 | 7% | 89% | |
| 79 | 9% | 82% | |
| 80 | 11% | 73% | |
| 81 | 12% | 62% | |
| 82 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 83 | 11% | 39% | |
| 84 | 9% | 28% | |
| 85 | 7% | 19% | |
| 86 | 5% | 12% | |
| 87 | 3% | 7% | |
| 88 | 2% | 4% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
European Conservatives and Reformists
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European Conservatives and Reformists page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 2% | 97% | |
| 75 | 2% | 95% | |
| 76 | 3% | 93% | |
| 77 | 4% | 90% | |
| 78 | 6% | 85% | |
| 79 | 7% | 79% | |
| 80 | 8% | 72% | |
| 81 | 9% | 64% | |
| 82 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 83 | 9% | 45% | |
| 84 | 9% | 36% | |
| 85 | 8% | 27% | |
| 86 | 6% | 19% | |
| 87 | 5% | 13% | |
| 88 | 3% | 8% | |
| 89 | 2% | 5% | |
| 90 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
European United Left–Nordic Green Left
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European United Left–Nordic Green Left page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 2% | 96% | |
| 37 | 3% | 95% | |
| 38 | 5% | 92% | |
| 39 | 7% | 87% | Last Result |
| 40 | 11% | 80% | |
| 41 | 14% | 69% | |
| 42 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 43 | 14% | 40% | |
| 44 | 11% | 26% | |
| 45 | 8% | 15% | |
| 46 | 4% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Non-Inscrits
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Non-Inscrits page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 4% | 98% | |
| 45 | 7% | 94% | |
| 46 | 10% | 88% | |
| 47 | 14% | 77% | |
| 48 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 49 | 16% | 47% | |
| 50 | 13% | 32% | |
| 51 | 9% | 19% | |
| 52 | 5% | 10% | |
| 53 | 3% | 4% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Parties currently not represented in the EP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parties currently not represented in the EP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 28% | 96% | |
| 3 | 43% | 69% | Median |
| 4 | 11% | 26% | |
| 5 | 5% | 15% | |
| 6 | 6% | 9% | |
| 7 | 2% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European People’s Party | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Renew Europe | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Greens–European Free Alliance | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Identity and Democracy | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| European Conservatives and Reformists | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| European United Left–Nordic Green Left | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Non-Inscrits | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Parties currently not represented in the EP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Technical Information
The seat and voting intentions projection for the European Parliament presented on this page was based on the averages of the most recent polls for the following countries:
| Country | No of Seats | No of Constituencies | Method | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria ⁰ | 19 | 1 | D’Hondt | 4% |
| Belgium: Flanders | 12 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Belgium: French Community ⁰ | 8 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Belgium: German-speaking constituency¹ | 1 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Bulgaria | 17 | 1 | Hare-Niemeyer | 5% |
| Croatia ⁰ | 12 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Cyprus ⁰ | 6 | 1 | Hare-Niemeyer | No |
| Czech Republic ⁰ | 21 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Denmark | 14 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Estonia | 7 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Finland | 14 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| France ⁰ | 79 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Germany | 96 | 1 | Sainte-Laguë | No |
| Greece | 21 | 1 | Droop | 3% |
| Hungary | 21 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Ireland | 13 | 3 | Single transferable vote² | N/A |
| Italy ⁰ | 76 | 1 | Hare-Niemeyer | 4% |
| Latvia | 8 | 1 | Sainte-Laguë | 5% |
| Lithuania ⁰ | 11 | 1 | Hare–Niemeyer | 5% |
| Luxembourg | 6 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Malta ⁰ | 6 | 1 | Single transferable vote² | N/A |
| Netherlands ⁰ | 29 | 1 | D’Hondt | 1/26 |
| Poland ⁰ | 52 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Portugal | 21 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Romania | 33 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Slovakia | 14 | 1 | Hagenbach-Bischoff | 5% |
| Slovenia | 8 | 1 | D’Hondt | 5% |
| Spain | 59 | 1 | D’Hondt | No |
| Sweden | 21 | 1 | Modified Sainte-Laguë | 4% |
| Total | 705 | 31 |
¹ No new opinion polls reported since the last European election; the results from the last European election are therefore used in the current projection for the European election.
² Implemented as D’Hondt.