Seat Projection for the European Parliament (EU27/705)

Seats | Voting Intentions | Technical Information

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Group Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
European People’s Party 188 132 126–136 125–138 123–139 120–141
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats 136 97 92–102 91–104 89–105 87–108
Patriots for Europe 84 90 85–94 84–95 83–96 80–98
European United Left–Nordic Green Left 46 60 56–64 55–65 54–66 52–68
Renew Europe 77 55 52–59 51–60 50–61 49–63
European Conservatives and Reformists 78 48 45–50 44–51 43–52 42–54
Europe of Sovereign Nations 25 43 39–47 39–48 38–49 37–51
Greens–European Free Alliance 53 34 31–37 30–38 29–38 28–40
Non-Inscrits 32 21 19–23 18–24 18–25 17–26
Parties currently not represented in the EP 1 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8

European People’s Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European People’s Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.2% 99.9%  
120 0.3% 99.7%  
121 0.5% 99.4%  
122 0.8% 98.8%  
123 1.1% 98%  
124 2% 97%  
125 2% 95%  
126 3% 93%  
127 4% 90%  
128 6% 85%  
129 8% 79%  
130 10% 71%  
131 11% 62%  
132 11% 51% Median
133 10% 40%  
134 9% 30%  
135 7% 21%  
136 5% 14%  
137 4% 9%  
138 2% 5%  
139 1.4% 3%  
140 0.8% 2%  
141 0.4% 0.8%  
142 0.2% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0% Last Result

Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 0.7% 99.3%  
89 1.3% 98.6%  
90 2% 97%  
91 4% 95%  
92 5% 91%  
93 7% 86%  
94 9% 79%  
95 10% 70%  
96 10% 61%  
97 10% 51% Median
98 9% 41%  
99 8% 32%  
100 7% 24%  
101 5% 18%  
102 4% 12%  
103 3% 8%  
104 2% 6%  
105 1.3% 3%  
106 0.9% 2%  
107 0.6% 1.3%  
108 0.3% 0.7%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0% Last Result

Patriots for Europe

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Patriots for Europe page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 0.5% 99.5%  
82 1.1% 98.9%  
83 2% 98%  
84 3% 96% Last Result
85 4% 93%  
86 5% 89%  
87 7% 84%  
88 8% 77%  
89 10% 68%  
90 11% 58% Median
91 12% 47%  
92 11% 35%  
93 9% 24%  
94 7% 15%  
95 4% 9%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.1% 2%  
98 0.5% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

European Conservatives and Reformists

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European Conservatives and Reformists page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.7%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 5% 97%  
45 8% 92%  
46 13% 84%  
47 17% 71%  
48 18% 54% Median
49 16% 36%  
50 10% 20%  
51 6% 10%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0% Last Result

Renew Europe

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renew Europe page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.9% 99.6%  
50 2% 98.7%  
51 4% 97%  
52 7% 92%  
53 11% 85%  
54 14% 74%  
55 15% 60% Median
56 14% 46%  
57 11% 32%  
58 8% 21%  
59 5% 13%  
60 3% 7%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0% Last Result

Greens–European Free Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Greens–European Free Alliance page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.8% 99.7%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 5% 97%  
31 9% 92%  
32 13% 83%  
33 16% 70%  
34 17% 54% Median
35 15% 38%  
36 11% 23%  
37 7% 12%  
38 3% 6%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

European United Left–Nordic Green Left

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European United Left–Nordic Green Left page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.7%  
53 1.2% 99.2%  
54 2% 98%  
55 4% 96%  
56 6% 92%  
57 8% 86%  
58 10% 77%  
59 12% 67%  
60 12% 55% Median
61 12% 43%  
62 10% 31%  
63 8% 21%  
64 6% 13%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Europe of Sovereign Nations

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europe of Sovereign Nations page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.9% 99.7%  
38 3% 98.7%  
39 6% 96%  
40 11% 90%  
41 14% 79%  
42 15% 65%  
43 13% 50% Median
44 10% 37%  
45 8% 27%  
46 6% 19%  
47 5% 13%  
48 3% 8%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.6% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Non-Inscrits

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Non-Inscrits page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.7%  
18 5% 98%  
19 11% 94%  
20 18% 83%  
21 22% 65% Median
22 20% 43%  
23 13% 23%  
24 7% 10%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.6% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result

Parties currently not represented in the EP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parties currently not represented in the EP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.1% 100%  
5 22% 98.9%  
6 52% 77% Median
7 22% 25%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
European People’s Party 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Patriots for Europe 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
European Conservatives and Reformists 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Renew Europe 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Greens–European Free Alliance 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
European United Left–Nordic Green Left 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Europe of Sovereign Nations 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Non-Inscrits 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Parties currently not represented in the EP 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Technical Information

The seat and voting intentions projection for the European Parliament presented on this page was based on the averages of the most recent polls for the following countries:

Country No of Seats No of Constituencies Method Threshold
Austria ⁰ 19 1 D’Hondt 4%
Belgium: Flanders 12 1 D’Hondt No
Belgium: French Community ⁰ 8 1 D’Hondt No
Belgium: German-speaking constituency¹ 1 1 D’Hondt No
Bulgaria 17 1 Hare-Niemeyer 5%
Croatia ⁰ 12 1 D’Hondt 5%
Cyprus ⁰ 6 1 Hare-Niemeyer No
Czech Republic ⁰ 21 1 D’Hondt 5%
Denmark 14 1 D’Hondt No
Estonia 7 1 D’Hondt No
Finland 14 1 D’Hondt No
France ⁰ 79 1 D’Hondt 5%
Germany 96 1 Sainte-Laguë No
Greece 21 1 Droop 3%
Hungary 21 1 D’Hondt No
Ireland 13 3 Single transferable vote² N/A
Italy ⁰ 76 1 Hare-Niemeyer 4%
Latvia 8 1 Sainte-Laguë 5%
Lithuania ⁰ 11 1 Hare–Niemeyer 5%
Luxembourg 6 1 D’Hondt No
Malta ⁰ 6 1 Single transferable vote² N/A
Netherlands ⁰ 29 1 D’Hondt 1/26
Poland ⁰ 52 1 D’Hondt 5%
Portugal 21 1 D’Hondt No
Romania 33 1 D’Hondt 5%
Slovakia 14 1 Hagenbach-Bischoff 5%
Slovenia 8 1 D’Hondt 5%
Spain 59 1 D’Hondt No
Sweden 21 1 Modified Sainte-Laguë 4%
Total 705 31    

¹ No new opinion polls reported since the last European election; the results from the last European election are therefore used in the current projection for the European election.

² Implemented as D’Hondt.