European People’s Party
Members registered from 27 countries:
AT, BE, BG, CY, CZ, DE, DK, EE, ES, FI, FR, GR, HR, HU, IE, IT, LT, LU, LV, MT, NL, PL, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK
Seats
Last result: 188 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Current median: 174 seats (-14 seats)
At least one member in 27 countries have a median of 1 seat or more:
AT, BE, BG, CY, CZ, DE, DK, EE, ES, FI, FR, GR, HR, HU, IE, IT, LT, LU, LV, MT, NL, PL, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Area | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European People’s Party | EU | 188 | 174 | 168–181 | 166–182 | 164–184 | 161–187 |
| Partido Popular | ES | 24 | 19–25 | 19–26 | 19–27 | 18–27 | |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands | DE | 19 | 18–21 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–23 | |
| Platforma Obywatelska | PL | 18 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 15–20 | |
| Tisztelet és Szabadság | HU | 10 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | |
| Aliança Democrática | PT | 8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | |
| Forza Italia | IT | 7 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 | |
| Les Républicains | FR | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 0–8 | 0–9 | |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | GR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | NL | 5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | DE | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | |
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica | HR | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | |
| Partidul Național Liberal | RO | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България | BG | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus | FI | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | SE | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | SI | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | AT | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 | |
| Fine Gael | IE | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | |
| Partit Nazzjonalista | MT | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | |
| Starostové a nezávislí | CZ | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | |
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | LU | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | |
| Erakond Isamaa | EE | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | |
| Liberal Alliance | DK | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | PL | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai | LT | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | |
| Δημοκρατικός Συναγερμός | CY | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | BE-VLG | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | |
| Christlich-Soziale Partei | BE-DEG | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Det Konservative Folkeparti | DK | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA | LV | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | SK | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | |
| Křesťanská a demokratická unie–Československá strana lidová | CZ | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība | LV | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | |
| Slovensko | SK | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | |
| TOP 09 | CZ | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | |
| Да, България! | BG | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | NL | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | |
| ChristenUnie | NL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | |
| Demokrati | SI | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | |
| Demokrati | SK | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | |
| Eesti 200 | EE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Erakond Parempoolsed | EE | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | |
| Forța Dreptei | RO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inicjatywa Polska | PL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | LV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kristdemokraterna | SE | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | |
| Kristendemokraterne | DK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kristillisdemokraatit | FI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | |
| Magyar Szövetség | SK | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | |
| Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom | HU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | NL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Noi Moderati | IT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | SI | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | SI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România | RO | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | |
| Za ľudí | SK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Демократична България | BG | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for European People’s Party.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 164 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 165 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 166 | 2% | 96% | |
| 167 | 3% | 94% | |
| 168 | 3% | 91% | |
| 169 | 4% | 88% | |
| 170 | 5% | 84% | |
| 171 | 6% | 78% | |
| 172 | 7% | 72% | |
| 173 | 8% | 65% | |
| 174 | 8% | 58% | Median |
| 175 | 8% | 50% | |
| 176 | 8% | 42% | |
| 177 | 7% | 34% | |
| 178 | 6% | 27% | |
| 179 | 5% | 21% | |
| 180 | 4% | 15% | |
| 181 | 3% | 11% | |
| 182 | 3% | 7% | |
| 183 | 2% | 5% | |
| 184 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |