Identity and Democracy

Members registered from 14 countries:

AT, BE, CZ, DE, DK, EE, FR, HR, IT, NL, PL, PT, RO, SK

Seats

Last result: 76 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)

Current median: 82 seats (+6 seats)

At least one member in 11 countries have a median of 1 seat or more:

AT, BE, CZ, DE, EE, FR, HR, IT, NL, PL, PT

Confidence Intervals

Party Area Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Identity and Democracy EU 76 82 77–86 76–87 75–88 74–90
Rassemblement national FR   29 27–31 26–32 26–33 24–33
Alternative für Deutschland DE   16 13–18 13–18 13–19 13–20
Partij voor de Vrijheid NL   9 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Lega Nord IT   7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs AT   6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Chega PT   4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Vlaams Belang BE-VLG   4 4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Ruch Narodowy PL   2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Svoboda a přímá demokracie–Trikolóra hnutí občanů CZ   2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore HR   1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond EE   1 1 1 1 1
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej PL   1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Dansk Folkeparti DK   0 0 0 0 0–1
Partidul S.O.S. România RO   0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Slovenská národná strana SK   0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Identity and Democracy.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.7%  
75 2% 99.1%  
76 3% 97% Last Result
77 5% 94%  
78 7% 89%  
79 9% 82%  
80 11% 73%  
81 12% 62%  
82 12% 51% Median
83 11% 39%  
84 9% 28%  
85 7% 19%  
86 5% 12%  
87 3% 7%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%