Identity and Democracy
Members registered from 14 countries:
AT, BE, CZ, DE, DK, EE, FR, HR, IT, NL, PL, PT, RO, SK
Seats
Last result: 76 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Current median: 82 seats (+6 seats)
At least one member in 11 countries have a median of 1 seat or more:
AT, BE, CZ, DE, EE, FR, HR, IT, NL, PL, PT
Confidence Intervals
Party | Area | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Identity and Democracy | EU | 76 | 82 | 77–86 | 76–87 | 75–88 | 74–90 |
Rassemblement national | FR | 29 | 27–31 | 26–32 | 26–33 | 24–33 | |
Alternative für Deutschland | DE | 16 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 13–20 | |
Partij voor de Vrijheid | NL | 9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–9 | |
Lega Nord | IT | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | AT | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | |
Chega | PT | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | |
Vlaams Belang | BE-VLG | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | |
Ruch Narodowy | PL | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | |
Svoboda a přímá demokracie–Trikolóra hnutí občanů | CZ | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | |
Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore | HR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | EE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej | PL | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | |
Dansk Folkeparti | DK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | |
Partidul S.O.S. România | RO | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | |
Slovenská národná strana | SK | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Identity and Democracy.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
73 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
74 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
75 | 2% | 99.1% | |
76 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
77 | 5% | 94% | |
78 | 7% | 89% | |
79 | 9% | 82% | |
80 | 11% | 73% | |
81 | 12% | 62% | |
82 | 12% | 51% | Median |
83 | 11% | 39% | |
84 | 9% | 28% | |
85 | 7% | 19% | |
86 | 5% | 12% | |
87 | 3% | 7% | |
88 | 2% | 4% | |
89 | 1.0% | 2% | |
90 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
91 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
93 | 0% | 0% |