Opinion Poll by Kantar for Bild am Sonntag, 12–18 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.6% 22.2–24.9% 21.9–25.3% 21.6–25.7% 20.9–26.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.7–22.3% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.0% 18.5–23.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.4–16.8% 12.8–17.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 12.9–15.1% 12.6–15.5% 12.4–15.7% 11.9–16.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.4% 4.8–6.2% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.6% 4.1–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 173 168–185 166–186 159–189 156–197
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 147–165 145–169 142–172 138–177
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 111 103–120 101–124 100–125 95–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 105 96–113 94–116 93–117 89–121
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 54–66 52–68 51–69 48–73
Die Linke 69 60 54–66 52–69 50–69 48–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 36–46 35–48 33–50 31–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0.1% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.2% 99.7%  
156 0.3% 99.5%  
157 0.6% 99.2%  
158 0.9% 98.6%  
159 0.3% 98%  
160 0.5% 97%  
161 0.3% 97%  
162 0.1% 97%  
163 0.1% 97%  
164 0.6% 96%  
165 0.6% 96%  
166 1.0% 95%  
167 3% 94%  
168 3% 91%  
169 7% 88%  
170 12% 81%  
171 12% 69%  
172 5% 57%  
173 9% 52% Median
174 3% 42%  
175 0.6% 39%  
176 0.4% 38%  
177 0.5% 38%  
178 0.4% 37%  
179 0.3% 37%  
180 4% 37%  
181 2% 33%  
182 4% 31%  
183 7% 27%  
184 7% 20%  
185 5% 13%  
186 3% 8%  
187 2% 5%  
188 0.2% 3%  
189 1.0% 3%  
190 0.2% 2%  
191 0% 2%  
192 0% 1.5%  
193 0.1% 1.5%  
194 0.1% 1.4%  
195 0.1% 1.2%  
196 0.5% 1.2%  
197 0.3% 0.6%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
201 0.1% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.2% 99.7%  
138 0.1% 99.5%  
139 0.2% 99.4%  
140 0.3% 99.2%  
141 0.7% 98.9%  
142 1.0% 98%  
143 0.7% 97%  
144 0.8% 96%  
145 3% 96%  
146 1.3% 92%  
147 4% 91%  
148 2% 87%  
149 2% 85%  
150 5% 83%  
151 3% 77%  
152 3% 74%  
153 5% 71%  
154 4% 66%  
155 7% 62%  
156 2% 55%  
157 2% 53%  
158 10% 50% Median
159 2% 41%  
160 5% 38%  
161 2% 33%  
162 10% 31%  
163 2% 21%  
164 4% 19%  
165 5% 15%  
166 0.7% 10%  
167 0.6% 9%  
168 3% 9%  
169 0.9% 6%  
170 1.2% 5%  
171 0.4% 4%  
172 0.9% 3%  
173 1.1% 2%  
174 0.3% 1.2%  
175 0.2% 1.0%  
176 0.2% 0.8%  
177 0.2% 0.5%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.3% 99.8%  
96 0.5% 99.5%  
97 0.2% 99.0%  
98 0.1% 98.7%  
99 0.6% 98.7%  
100 1.3% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 1.3% 95%  
103 8% 94%  
104 1.1% 86%  
105 2% 85%  
106 2% 83%  
107 3% 80%  
108 7% 77%  
109 3% 70%  
110 12% 67%  
111 8% 55% Median
112 2% 46%  
113 3% 44%  
114 4% 41%  
115 4% 37%  
116 2% 33%  
117 16% 30%  
118 2% 14%  
119 2% 12%  
120 1.2% 10%  
121 2% 9%  
122 1.2% 7%  
123 0.5% 6%  
124 0.7% 5%  
125 2% 4%  
126 0.2% 2%  
127 0.9% 2%  
128 0.2% 0.8%  
129 0.1% 0.5%  
130 0% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.5% 99.5%  
90 0.3% 99.1%  
91 0.6% 98.8%  
92 0.7% 98%  
93 0.8% 98%  
94 2% 97% Last Result
95 3% 94%  
96 2% 91%  
97 5% 89%  
98 4% 85%  
99 6% 81%  
100 5% 75%  
101 4% 70%  
102 6% 66%  
103 3% 60%  
104 7% 57%  
105 4% 50% Median
106 8% 47%  
107 7% 38%  
108 6% 31%  
109 6% 25%  
110 4% 19%  
111 3% 15%  
112 1.4% 12%  
113 2% 10%  
114 2% 8%  
115 1.0% 7%  
116 2% 6%  
117 3% 4%  
118 0.4% 2%  
119 0.3% 1.2%  
120 0.1% 0.9%  
121 0.3% 0.7%  
122 0.1% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.6%  
49 0.8% 99.2%  
50 0.9% 98%  
51 0.6% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 4% 95%  
54 5% 91%  
55 4% 87%  
56 6% 83%  
57 10% 77%  
58 6% 67%  
59 8% 61%  
60 13% 53% Median
61 6% 40%  
62 6% 34%  
63 6% 28%  
64 3% 22%  
65 7% 20%  
66 4% 12%  
67 2% 9%  
68 3% 7%  
69 1.4% 4%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.5% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.3%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.6% 99.6%  
49 0.4% 99.0%  
50 2% 98.6%  
51 2% 97%  
52 0.6% 95%  
53 4% 95%  
54 5% 90%  
55 2% 86%  
56 7% 84%  
57 15% 77%  
58 5% 63%  
59 5% 58%  
60 10% 53% Median
61 5% 43%  
62 5% 38%  
63 5% 33%  
64 5% 27%  
65 8% 22%  
66 6% 14%  
67 2% 9%  
68 2% 7%  
69 3% 6% Last Result
70 0.5% 2%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.4%  
73 0.6% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.8%  
31 0.5% 99.7%  
32 0.5% 99.2%  
33 1.4% 98.7%  
34 2% 97%  
35 2% 96%  
36 8% 93%  
37 3% 85%  
38 5% 82%  
39 15% 77%  
40 13% 62% Median
41 10% 49%  
42 6% 39%  
43 11% 33%  
44 7% 22%  
45 3% 15%  
46 4% 11% Last Result
47 2% 8%  
48 1.4% 6%  
49 1.3% 4%  
50 0.9% 3%  
51 1.4% 2%  
52 0.3% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 488 100% 473–493 471–498 471–502 461–507
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 432 100% 422–444 420–447 416–451 410–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 387 100% 377–399 374–401 371–405 364–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 380 99.9% 369–392 366–395 363–399 358–404
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 372 98.5% 362–385 358–387 356–391 350–396
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 327 0.2% 316–339 315–342 311–347 305–350
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 329 0.1% 317–340 314–343 310–346 305–351
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 328 0.2% 317–340 313–342 311–345 306–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 321 0% 310–332 306–336 303–338 298–343
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 276 0% 266–288 263–289 260–293 254–299
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 268 0% 258–279 254–282 251–285 246–292
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 162–181 159–185 156–187 152–192
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 171 0% 162–182 159–184 158–186 153–193

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
457 0.1% 100%  
458 0.1% 99.9%  
459 0.1% 99.8%  
460 0% 99.7%  
461 0.2% 99.7%  
462 0% 99.5%  
463 0.1% 99.5%  
464 0% 99.4%  
465 0.1% 99.4%  
466 0.1% 99.3% Last Result
467 0.3% 99.2%  
468 0.2% 99.0%  
469 0.1% 98.8%  
470 0.2% 98.6%  
471 4% 98%  
472 2% 95%  
473 3% 93%  
474 3% 90%  
475 5% 87%  
476 9% 82%  
477 0.3% 72%  
478 0.4% 72%  
479 4% 71%  
480 2% 68%  
481 0.4% 66%  
482 0.4% 65% Median
483 0.9% 65%  
484 2% 64%  
485 7% 62%  
486 3% 55%  
487 0.4% 53%  
488 8% 52%  
489 20% 44%  
490 4% 24%  
491 1.2% 20%  
492 8% 19%  
493 2% 11%  
494 2% 9%  
495 0.2% 6%  
496 0.8% 6%  
497 0.3% 5%  
498 0.6% 5%  
499 0.1% 4%  
500 0.1% 4%  
501 0.3% 4%  
502 2% 4%  
503 1.0% 2%  
504 0.1% 1.4%  
505 0.3% 1.3%  
506 0.4% 1.0%  
507 0.5% 0.6%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0.1% 0.1%  
511 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.9%  
408 0.1% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.8%  
410 0.2% 99.6%  
411 0.3% 99.4%  
412 0.3% 99.1%  
413 0.2% 98.8%  
414 0.9% 98.6%  
415 0.2% 98%  
416 0.4% 98%  
417 0.8% 97%  
418 0.3% 96%  
419 0.6% 96%  
420 0.6% 95%  
421 3% 95%  
422 2% 92%  
423 2% 89%  
424 5% 88%  
425 3% 83%  
426 7% 80%  
427 0.9% 73%  
428 4% 73%  
429 9% 68%  
430 4% 59%  
431 3% 55% Median
432 3% 53%  
433 4% 49%  
434 2% 45%  
435 3% 44%  
436 7% 41%  
437 2% 34%  
438 7% 31%  
439 2% 24%  
440 2% 22%  
441 3% 21%  
442 4% 18%  
443 3% 14%  
444 3% 11%  
445 0.9% 8%  
446 2% 7%  
447 0.6% 6%  
448 1.5% 5%  
449 0.3% 3%  
450 0.2% 3%  
451 1.3% 3%  
452 0.3% 2%  
453 0.6% 1.3%  
454 0.3% 0.7%  
455 0.1% 0.5%  
456 0.1% 0.4%  
457 0.1% 0.3%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0.1% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.2% 99.8%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.1% 99.4%  
366 0.1% 99.3%  
367 0.4% 99.2%  
368 0.1% 98.7%  
369 0.3% 98.6%  
370 0.4% 98%  
371 0.6% 98%  
372 1.0% 97%  
373 1.2% 96%  
374 0.3% 95%  
375 0.6% 95%  
376 4% 94%  
377 1.3% 90%  
378 3% 89%  
379 1.0% 86%  
380 2% 85%  
381 8% 83%  
382 5% 75%  
383 5% 70%  
384 12% 66% Median
385 1.2% 54%  
386 2% 53%  
387 4% 50%  
388 1.4% 47%  
389 2% 45%  
390 2% 43%  
391 4% 42%  
392 3% 38%  
393 6% 35%  
394 1.5% 29%  
395 7% 28%  
396 3% 21%  
397 2% 17%  
398 3% 15%  
399 5% 12%  
400 0.2% 7%  
401 3% 7%  
402 1.1% 5%  
403 0.8% 4%  
404 0.2% 3%  
405 0.2% 3%  
406 0.3% 2%  
407 0.3% 2%  
408 0.2% 2%  
409 0.2% 2%  
410 0.5% 1.4%  
411 0.4% 0.9%  
412 0.2% 0.5%  
413 0% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0.1% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0.1% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.2% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.7%  
357 0% 99.7%  
358 0.5% 99.7%  
359 0.5% 99.2%  
360 0% 98.7%  
361 0.2% 98.7%  
362 0.8% 98.5%  
363 0.4% 98%  
364 0% 97%  
365 1.2% 97%  
366 4% 96%  
367 0.9% 92%  
368 0.1% 91%  
369 1.3% 91%  
370 4% 90%  
371 0.1% 86%  
372 0.3% 86%  
373 14% 85%  
374 1.0% 71%  
375 0.1% 70%  
376 4% 70%  
377 9% 66%  
378 3% 57% Median
379 0.1% 54%  
380 5% 53%  
381 9% 48%  
382 0.6% 39%  
383 0.3% 39%  
384 6% 38%  
385 5% 32%  
386 0.4% 27%  
387 2% 27%  
388 6% 25%  
389 3% 19%  
390 0.3% 16%  
391 2% 16%  
392 5% 14%  
393 2% 9%  
394 0.1% 7%  
395 2% 7%  
396 1.3% 5%  
397 0.1% 4%  
398 0.3% 3%  
399 2% 3%  
400 0.3% 1.2%  
401 0.1% 0.9%  
402 0.1% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.7%  
404 0.1% 0.6%  
405 0.1% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0.2% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.3% 99.7%  
351 0.4% 99.4%  
352 0.1% 99.0%  
353 0.2% 98.9%  
354 0.1% 98.6%  
355 0.5% 98.5% Majority
356 0.5% 98%  
357 0.5% 97%  
358 3% 97%  
359 1.1% 94%  
360 0.9% 93%  
361 2% 92%  
362 1.5% 90%  
363 5% 89%  
364 2% 84%  
365 2% 81%  
366 5% 80%  
367 3% 75%  
368 5% 72%  
369 2% 66%  
370 0.8% 64%  
371 8% 63% Median
372 10% 55%  
373 2% 46%  
374 1.5% 44%  
375 4% 42%  
376 1.2% 38%  
377 5% 37%  
378 5% 32%  
379 2% 27%  
380 2% 24%  
381 5% 22%  
382 2% 17%  
383 4% 16%  
384 1.2% 12%  
385 1.3% 11%  
386 3% 9%  
387 1.1% 6%  
388 0.7% 5%  
389 1.4% 4%  
390 0.2% 3%  
391 0.8% 3%  
392 0.2% 2%  
393 0.8% 2%  
394 0.1% 0.8%  
395 0.2% 0.7%  
396 0.1% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.5%  
398 0.2% 0.4%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.2% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.1% 99.4%  
307 0.5% 99.3%  
308 0.4% 98.8%  
309 0.5% 98%  
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 2% 97%  
313 0.2% 95%  
314 0.1% 95%  
315 1.1% 95%  
316 5% 94%  
317 1.3% 89%  
318 0.7% 88%  
319 3% 87%  
320 5% 84%  
321 6% 79%  
322 2% 73%  
323 2% 71%  
324 4% 68% Median
325 0.7% 64%  
326 2% 63%  
327 12% 61%  
328 4% 49%  
329 2% 45%  
330 8% 42%  
331 3% 34%  
332 4% 31%  
333 0.3% 27%  
334 3% 27%  
335 3% 24%  
336 2% 21%  
337 1.0% 19%  
338 3% 18%  
339 7% 15%  
340 0.6% 8%  
341 0.3% 8%  
342 3% 7%  
343 0.6% 5%  
344 0.2% 4%  
345 0.7% 4%  
346 0.7% 3%  
347 1.4% 3%  
348 0.3% 1.3%  
349 0.3% 1.1%  
350 0.3% 0.8%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.2% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.6%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.1% 99.4%  
307 0.1% 99.3%  
308 0.1% 99.2%  
309 0.3% 99.1%  
310 2% 98.8%  
311 0.3% 97%  
312 0.1% 97%  
313 1.3% 96%  
314 2% 95%  
315 0.1% 93%  
316 2% 93%  
317 5% 91%  
318 2% 86%  
319 0.3% 84%  
320 3% 84%  
321 6% 81%  
322 2% 75%  
323 0.4% 73%  
324 5% 73%  
325 6% 68%  
326 0.3% 62%  
327 0.6% 61%  
328 9% 61%  
329 5% 52% Median
330 0.1% 47%  
331 3% 46%  
332 9% 43%  
333 4% 34%  
334 0.1% 30%  
335 1.0% 30%  
336 14% 29%  
337 0.3% 15%  
338 0.1% 14%  
339 4% 14%  
340 1.3% 10%  
341 0.1% 9%  
342 0.9% 9%  
343 4% 8%  
344 1.2% 4%  
345 0% 3%  
346 0.4% 3%  
347 0.8% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.5%  
349 0% 1.3%  
350 0.5% 1.3%  
351 0.5% 0.8%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0.2% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0.1% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9% Last Result
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.2% 99.5%  
308 0.4% 99.2%  
309 0.5% 98.9%  
310 0.7% 98%  
311 0.9% 98%  
312 0.9% 97%  
313 1.1% 96%  
314 2% 95%  
315 2% 93%  
316 0.5% 91%  
317 2% 91%  
318 0.8% 89%  
319 2% 89%  
320 3% 87%  
321 6% 83%  
322 0.9% 77%  
323 5% 76%  
324 6% 71%  
325 7% 66%  
326 6% 59%  
327 2% 53%  
328 5% 51%  
329 0.9% 47% Median
330 4% 46%  
331 3% 41%  
332 1.4% 38%  
333 3% 37%  
334 2% 34%  
335 4% 31%  
336 8% 28%  
337 1.4% 20%  
338 6% 19%  
339 0.7% 13%  
340 5% 12%  
341 2% 7%  
342 0.9% 5%  
343 0.6% 4%  
344 0.5% 4%  
345 1.1% 3%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.4% 1.4%  
350 0.3% 1.0%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0.2% 0.6%  
353 0.2% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.5% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.1%  
300 0% 99.1%  
301 0.4% 99.0%  
302 1.0% 98.6%  
303 1.3% 98%  
304 0.2% 96%  
305 0.1% 96%  
306 1.0% 96%  
307 2% 95%  
308 0.9% 93%  
309 0.5% 93%  
310 5% 92%  
311 4% 88%  
312 6% 84%  
313 4% 78%  
314 1.0% 74%  
315 1.0% 73%  
316 10% 72%  
317 6% 63%  
318 4% 57% Median
319 0.7% 53%  
320 1.1% 52%  
321 6% 51%  
322 7% 45%  
323 4% 38%  
324 1.1% 34%  
325 4% 33%  
326 1.3% 29%  
327 5% 28%  
328 3% 23%  
329 2% 20%  
330 2% 18%  
331 2% 16%  
332 5% 14%  
333 1.0% 9%  
334 1.3% 8%  
335 0.6% 7%  
336 3% 6%  
337 0.5% 3%  
338 0.6% 3%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0.2% 2% Last Result
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.5% 1.5%  
343 0.7% 1.0%  
344 0% 0.4%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.2% 99.7%  
254 0.3% 99.6%  
255 0.1% 99.2%  
256 0.4% 99.1%  
257 0.4% 98.7%  
258 0.6% 98%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.4% 98%  
261 1.1% 97%  
262 0.9% 96%  
263 0.8% 95%  
264 0.7% 94%  
265 2% 94%  
266 3% 91%  
267 9% 88%  
268 2% 79%  
269 4% 78%  
270 1.1% 74%  
271 6% 73%  
272 2% 67%  
273 7% 65% Median
274 2% 58%  
275 4% 55%  
276 4% 51%  
277 5% 47%  
278 7% 42%  
279 5% 35%  
280 2% 31%  
281 2% 29%  
282 4% 26%  
283 0.7% 23%  
284 3% 22%  
285 2% 19%  
286 1.3% 16%  
287 0.6% 15%  
288 6% 14%  
289 3% 8%  
290 0.8% 5%  
291 0.4% 4%  
292 0.7% 4%  
293 0.9% 3%  
294 0.6% 2%  
295 0.3% 2%  
296 0.2% 1.3%  
297 0.4% 1.2%  
298 0.1% 0.7%  
299 0.4% 0.7%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.2% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.6%  
246 0.2% 99.5%  
247 0% 99.3%  
248 0.4% 99.2%  
249 0.3% 98.9%  
250 0.1% 98.6%  
251 2% 98.6%  
252 1.1% 97%  
253 0.4% 96%  
254 1.0% 95%  
255 2% 94%  
256 1.2% 92%  
257 1.0% 91%  
258 0.9% 90%  
259 3% 89%  
260 0.4% 86%  
261 6% 85%  
262 6% 79%  
263 8% 74%  
264 1.2% 65%  
265 5% 64%  
266 3% 59%  
267 0.8% 56%  
268 7% 56%  
269 2% 49% Median
270 5% 47%  
271 1.1% 43%  
272 7% 41%  
273 1.3% 35%  
274 1.0% 33%  
275 8% 32%  
276 3% 24%  
277 0.5% 21%  
278 1.5% 21%  
279 13% 19%  
280 0.6% 6%  
281 0.4% 6%  
282 0.9% 5%  
283 1.4% 5%  
284 0.2% 3%  
285 0.6% 3%  
286 0.9% 2%  
287 0% 1.5%  
288 0.2% 1.4%  
289 0.2% 1.2%  
290 0.1% 0.9%  
291 0.3% 0.9%  
292 0.2% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0.1% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.3% 99.7%  
153 0.1% 99.4%  
154 0.1% 99.3%  
155 0.3% 99.3%  
156 2% 99.0%  
157 0.4% 97%  
158 1.0% 96%  
159 0.8% 95%  
160 2% 95%  
161 0.9% 93%  
162 2% 92%  
163 6% 90%  
164 3% 84%  
165 0.9% 81%  
166 2% 80%  
167 7% 78%  
168 8% 71%  
169 2% 63%  
170 2% 61%  
171 2% 58% Median
172 3% 57%  
173 6% 54%  
174 15% 48%  
175 4% 32%  
176 5% 29%  
177 0.3% 24%  
178 2% 23%  
179 8% 21%  
180 1.5% 13%  
181 2% 12%  
182 0.9% 9%  
183 0.2% 8%  
184 0.3% 8%  
185 3% 8%  
186 2% 4%  
187 1.4% 3%  
188 0.1% 1.4%  
189 0.1% 1.3%  
190 0.4% 1.3%  
191 0.2% 0.9%  
192 0.4% 0.7%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.2%  
197 0.1% 0.1%  
198 0.1% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0.1% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.1% 99.6%  
154 0.2% 99.5%  
155 0.1% 99.2%  
156 0.9% 99.1%  
157 0.6% 98%  
158 1.3% 98%  
159 2% 96%  
160 0.7% 95%  
161 4% 94%  
162 3% 90%  
163 2% 87%  
164 2% 85%  
165 2% 83%  
166 3% 81%  
167 3% 77%  
168 8% 75%  
169 2% 66%  
170 6% 64%  
171 11% 57% Median
172 2% 46%  
173 5% 44%  
174 8% 39%  
175 2% 31%  
176 3% 29%  
177 3% 26%  
178 3% 23%  
179 3% 20%  
180 3% 17%  
181 1.1% 14%  
182 5% 13%  
183 1.1% 8%  
184 2% 7%  
185 0.6% 5%  
186 2% 4%  
187 0.3% 2%  
188 0.6% 2%  
189 0.2% 1.4%  
190 0.2% 1.2%  
191 0.4% 1.0%  
192 0.1% 0.6%  
193 0.1% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations