Opinion Poll by Forsa, 16–20 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.9–23.3% 20.5–23.6% 20.2–23.9% 19.7–24.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.8–23.2% 20.4–23.5% 20.1–23.8% 19.6–24.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.3–6.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 173 160–179 157–181 156–182 151–187
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 168 161–175 159–177 155–180 151–186
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 116 109–124 107–127 105–129 100–131
Alternative für Deutschland 94 100 94–108 91–111 90–114 87–117
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 61 55–67 54–69 53–70 50–73
Die Linke 69 55 49–60 48–61 47–63 44–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 33–43 33–47 33–48 31–50

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.3% 99.5%  
153 0.3% 99.2%  
154 0.7% 98.9%  
155 0.6% 98%  
156 2% 98%  
157 1.3% 96%  
158 1.3% 95%  
159 2% 93%  
160 2% 91%  
161 3% 90%  
162 6% 86%  
163 5% 81%  
164 2% 76%  
165 1.5% 74%  
166 0.8% 73%  
167 1.2% 72%  
168 0.6% 71%  
169 2% 70%  
170 4% 68%  
171 3% 65%  
172 9% 62%  
173 6% 52% Median
174 11% 47%  
175 8% 36%  
176 4% 27%  
177 6% 24%  
178 3% 17%  
179 6% 14%  
180 3% 8%  
181 2% 5%  
182 0.7% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.2% 1.2%  
186 0.5% 1.0%  
187 0.2% 0.5%  
188 0.2% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0.1% 100%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0% 99.7%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.3% 99.6%  
152 0.1% 99.3%  
153 0.4% 99.2%  
154 0.9% 98.8%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 0.6% 97%  
157 0.8% 96%  
158 0.6% 96%  
159 1.0% 95%  
160 2% 94%  
161 3% 92%  
162 9% 89%  
163 11% 81%  
164 3% 70%  
165 2% 67%  
166 5% 65%  
167 3% 60%  
168 10% 57% Median
169 17% 47%  
170 4% 30%  
171 5% 26%  
172 0.9% 21%  
173 3% 20%  
174 3% 17%  
175 5% 15%  
176 2% 10%  
177 3% 8%  
178 1.5% 5%  
179 0.5% 3%  
180 0.5% 3%  
181 0.3% 2%  
182 0.4% 2%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.3%  
185 0.2% 0.9%  
186 0.2% 0.7%  
187 0.1% 0.5%  
188 0% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.3% 99.4%  
102 0.3% 99.2%  
103 0.5% 98.8%  
104 0.8% 98%  
105 1.0% 98%  
106 1.0% 97%  
107 2% 96%  
108 2% 94%  
109 3% 92%  
110 5% 89%  
111 3% 84%  
112 6% 81%  
113 8% 74%  
114 4% 67%  
115 12% 63%  
116 4% 51% Median
117 7% 47%  
118 12% 40%  
119 2% 28%  
120 4% 26%  
121 4% 22%  
122 3% 18%  
123 3% 15%  
124 3% 12%  
125 0.8% 9%  
126 3% 8%  
127 1.5% 6%  
128 2% 4%  
129 0.7% 3%  
130 0.6% 2%  
131 0.9% 1.3%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8%  
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.2% 99.6%  
88 1.1% 99.4%  
89 0.4% 98%  
90 1.1% 98%  
91 2% 97%  
92 0.5% 95%  
93 4% 94%  
94 7% 90% Last Result
95 4% 83%  
96 5% 79%  
97 8% 74%  
98 5% 66%  
99 11% 61%  
100 11% 51% Median
101 3% 39%  
102 4% 36%  
103 7% 33%  
104 4% 26%  
105 3% 22%  
106 2% 18%  
107 4% 16%  
108 3% 13%  
109 3% 10%  
110 0.8% 7%  
111 2% 6%  
112 1.0% 4%  
113 0.6% 3%  
114 1.4% 3%  
115 0.5% 1.1%  
116 0.1% 0.6%  
117 0.2% 0.5%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 1.0% 99.4%  
52 0.9% 98%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 3% 93%  
56 4% 90%  
57 5% 86%  
58 13% 80%  
59 4% 68%  
60 7% 63%  
61 7% 56% Median
62 8% 49%  
63 13% 41%  
64 5% 28%  
65 5% 23%  
66 3% 18%  
67 7% 14%  
68 2% 8%  
69 3% 6%  
70 0.6% 3%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.4%  
73 0.4% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.5% 99.7%  
45 0.6% 99.2%  
46 0.8% 98.6%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 96%  
49 4% 92%  
50 6% 89%  
51 6% 83%  
52 7% 77%  
53 6% 70%  
54 9% 64%  
55 10% 55% Median
56 4% 45%  
57 13% 41%  
58 10% 27%  
59 4% 17%  
60 5% 14%  
61 4% 8%  
62 1.0% 4%  
63 1.3% 3%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.3% 1.1%  
66 0.3% 0.8%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.8%  
31 1.5% 99.7%  
32 0.6% 98%  
33 11% 98%  
34 6% 87%  
35 12% 81%  
36 23% 70% Median
37 3% 47%  
38 11% 44%  
39 3% 34%  
40 7% 30%  
41 4% 23%  
42 5% 19%  
43 5% 15%  
44 1.0% 10%  
45 2% 9%  
46 1.1% 7% Last Result
47 2% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.4% 2%  
50 0.9% 1.1%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 493 100% 482–503 480–505 478–508 472–512
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 437 100% 429–447 427–450 424–454 420–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 381 100% 375–394 372–396 369–399 363–408
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 377 99.8% 366–386 363–390 361–392 356–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 365 96% 357–381 356–384 353–386 350–390
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 349 24% 336–359 333–362 329–364 326–368
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 344 4% 328–352 325–353 323–356 319–359
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 320 0% 311–333 310–336 307–338 302–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 305 0% 295–319 293–323 290–324 286–329
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 289 0% 274–298 272–300 270–301 265–305
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 265 0% 262–280 260–283 254–285 252–294
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 179 0% 168–187 165–190 164–191 160–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 172 0% 162–179 159–182 157–183 152–187

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 99.9%  
468 0.1% 99.9%  
469 0.1% 99.9%  
470 0.1% 99.8%  
471 0.1% 99.7%  
472 0.3% 99.6%  
473 0.1% 99.3%  
474 0.3% 99.2%  
475 0.4% 98.9%  
476 0.1% 98%  
477 0.6% 98%  
478 2% 98%  
479 0.5% 96%  
480 0.9% 95%  
481 0.8% 94%  
482 4% 93%  
483 2% 89%  
484 4% 87%  
485 0.8% 84%  
486 3% 83%  
487 1.5% 80%  
488 4% 79%  
489 7% 74%  
490 6% 67%  
491 3% 61%  
492 3% 57%  
493 6% 54% Median
494 12% 48%  
495 1.5% 36%  
496 4% 34%  
497 4% 30%  
498 6% 26%  
499 2% 20%  
500 4% 19%  
501 2% 15%  
502 3% 13%  
503 0.5% 10%  
504 4% 10%  
505 0.7% 5%  
506 1.0% 5%  
507 0.5% 4%  
508 2% 3%  
509 0.2% 1.2%  
510 0.2% 1.1%  
511 0.3% 0.8%  
512 0.1% 0.5%  
513 0.2% 0.4%  
514 0% 0.2%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.4% 99.7%  
421 0.2% 99.3%  
422 0.1% 99.2%  
423 1.0% 99.0%  
424 1.2% 98%  
425 0.2% 97%  
426 0.7% 97%  
427 4% 96%  
428 2% 92%  
429 0.4% 90%  
430 3% 90%  
431 5% 86%  
432 3% 81%  
433 3% 78%  
434 11% 75%  
435 3% 64%  
436 4% 61%  
437 13% 57%  
438 5% 44% Median
439 0.6% 39%  
440 8% 39%  
441 5% 31%  
442 3% 26%  
443 2% 23%  
444 5% 21%  
445 4% 17%  
446 2% 12%  
447 1.2% 11%  
448 2% 9%  
449 2% 8%  
450 2% 6%  
451 0.3% 4%  
452 0.4% 4%  
453 0.5% 4%  
454 1.1% 3%  
455 0.2% 2%  
456 0.1% 2%  
457 0.4% 2%  
458 0.2% 1.4%  
459 0.2% 1.2%  
460 0.4% 0.9%  
461 0.2% 0.6%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.3% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.5%  
365 0.5% 99.3%  
366 0.3% 98.9%  
367 0.6% 98.6%  
368 0.4% 98%  
369 0.7% 98%  
370 1.0% 97%  
371 0.7% 96%  
372 1.2% 95%  
373 1.4% 94%  
374 1.3% 93%  
375 4% 91%  
376 1.4% 87%  
377 9% 86%  
378 10% 77%  
379 4% 66%  
380 7% 62%  
381 6% 55% Median
382 5% 49%  
383 3% 45%  
384 4% 42%  
385 3% 37%  
386 4% 34%  
387 4% 30%  
388 2% 26%  
389 3% 24%  
390 3% 21%  
391 3% 18%  
392 3% 15%  
393 0.6% 12%  
394 2% 12%  
395 3% 9%  
396 2% 7%  
397 0.8% 5%  
398 1.1% 4%  
399 0.3% 3%  
400 0.3% 2%  
401 0.6% 2%  
402 0.2% 2%  
403 0.3% 1.4%  
404 0.1% 1.1%  
405 0.2% 1.0%  
406 0.1% 0.8%  
407 0.2% 0.7%  
408 0.2% 0.5%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0.1% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.2% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0.3% 99.5%  
358 0.4% 99.2%  
359 0.2% 98.8%  
360 0.4% 98.6%  
361 0.9% 98%  
362 0.7% 97%  
363 2% 97%  
364 3% 95%  
365 2% 92%  
366 2% 91%  
367 3% 89%  
368 2% 86%  
369 3% 84%  
370 2% 81%  
371 9% 78%  
372 2% 70%  
373 3% 68%  
374 5% 65%  
375 4% 61%  
376 4% 57%  
377 6% 53% Median
378 6% 47%  
379 9% 41%  
380 4% 33%  
381 2% 29%  
382 4% 27%  
383 5% 23%  
384 3% 18%  
385 3% 14%  
386 2% 12%  
387 2% 10%  
388 0.9% 8%  
389 2% 7%  
390 0.4% 5%  
391 2% 5%  
392 0.8% 3%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.8% 2%  
395 0.1% 1.0%  
396 0.1% 0.9%  
397 0.2% 0.8%  
398 0.1% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.5%  
400 0% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.2% 99.8%  
350 0.2% 99.5%  
351 0.3% 99.4%  
352 1.2% 99.1%  
353 0.9% 98%  
354 1.0% 97%  
355 0.9% 96% Majority
356 4% 95%  
357 4% 91%  
358 2% 87%  
359 3% 85%  
360 7% 82%  
361 8% 75%  
362 3% 67%  
363 13% 64%  
364 1.0% 51%  
365 5% 50% Median
366 3% 45%  
367 3% 42%  
368 4% 39%  
369 1.4% 35%  
370 1.3% 33%  
371 2% 32%  
372 1.1% 30%  
373 1.3% 28%  
374 5% 27%  
375 0.9% 23%  
376 4% 22%  
377 2% 18%  
378 3% 16%  
379 2% 14%  
380 2% 12%  
381 0.7% 10%  
382 2% 9%  
383 2% 7%  
384 1.0% 5%  
385 1.5% 4%  
386 0.5% 3%  
387 1.1% 2%  
388 0.2% 1.1%  
389 0.2% 0.9%  
390 0.3% 0.7%  
391 0.2% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.2% 99.5%  
327 0.2% 99.3%  
328 0.7% 99.1%  
329 1.2% 98%  
330 0.2% 97%  
331 0.5% 97%  
332 1.3% 96%  
333 1.1% 95%  
334 1.1% 94%  
335 0.7% 93%  
336 2% 92%  
337 2% 90%  
338 3% 88%  
339 3% 84%  
340 2% 82%  
341 1.4% 79%  
342 1.5% 78%  
343 4% 77%  
344 2% 73%  
345 3% 71%  
346 2% 68%  
347 13% 66%  
348 1.4% 53%  
349 5% 52%  
350 4% 47% Median
351 4% 42%  
352 2% 39%  
353 8% 36%  
354 4% 28%  
355 3% 24% Majority
356 2% 21%  
357 4% 19%  
358 3% 14%  
359 2% 11%  
360 1.5% 9%  
361 2% 8%  
362 2% 6%  
363 0.8% 4%  
364 1.0% 3%  
365 0.6% 2%  
366 0.7% 2%  
367 0.3% 0.9%  
368 0.3% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.2% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0.1% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.2% 99.7%  
319 0.3% 99.5%  
320 0.2% 99.3%  
321 0.2% 99.1%  
322 1.1% 98.9%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 1.5% 97%  
325 1.0% 96%  
326 2% 95%  
327 2% 93%  
328 0.7% 91%  
329 2% 90%  
330 2% 88%  
331 3% 86%  
332 2% 84%  
333 4% 82%  
334 0.9% 78%  
335 5% 77%  
336 1.3% 73%  
337 1.1% 72%  
338 2% 70%  
339 1.3% 68%  
340 1.4% 67%  
341 4% 65%  
342 3% 61%  
343 3% 58%  
344 5% 55% Median
345 1.0% 50%  
346 13% 49%  
347 3% 36%  
348 8% 33%  
349 7% 25%  
350 3% 18%  
351 2% 15%  
352 4% 13%  
353 4% 9%  
354 0.9% 5%  
355 1.0% 4% Majority
356 0.9% 3%  
357 1.2% 2%  
358 0.3% 0.9%  
359 0.2% 0.6%  
360 0.2% 0.5%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0.1% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.2% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.3% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.3%  
304 0.5% 99.1%  
305 0.3% 98.6%  
306 0.7% 98%  
307 0.4% 98%  
308 0.9% 97%  
309 0.6% 96%  
310 1.2% 96%  
311 5% 94%  
312 1.2% 90%  
313 1.2% 89%  
314 4% 87%  
315 5% 83%  
316 3% 78%  
317 8% 76%  
318 2% 67%  
319 5% 66%  
320 12% 60% Median
321 3% 48%  
322 2% 45%  
323 3% 43%  
324 6% 40%  
325 4% 34%  
326 2% 30%  
327 3% 28%  
328 6% 25%  
329 2% 19%  
330 1.1% 17%  
331 3% 16%  
332 3% 13%  
333 3% 10%  
334 0.7% 7%  
335 0.8% 6%  
336 2% 6%  
337 1.2% 4%  
338 0.7% 3%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.3% 1.2%  
342 0.1% 0.9%  
343 0.3% 0.8%  
344 0.2% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.2% 99.8%  
286 0.3% 99.6%  
287 0.2% 99.3%  
288 0.5% 99.2%  
289 0.7% 98.7%  
290 0.7% 98%  
291 0.9% 97%  
292 0.7% 96%  
293 1.3% 96%  
294 4% 94%  
295 2% 90%  
296 1.2% 88%  
297 3% 87%  
298 8% 83%  
299 4% 75%  
300 2% 72%  
301 3% 70%  
302 6% 66%  
303 3% 60%  
304 4% 57% Median
305 9% 53%  
306 4% 44%  
307 2% 40%  
308 3% 37%  
309 3% 34%  
310 2% 31%  
311 3% 29%  
312 1.1% 26%  
313 2% 25%  
314 5% 23%  
315 1.3% 18%  
316 4% 17%  
317 1.1% 12%  
318 1.1% 11%  
319 2% 10%  
320 1.1% 9%  
321 1.1% 7%  
322 0.8% 6%  
323 3% 5%  
324 0.3% 3%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.2% 2%  
327 0.6% 2%  
328 0.4% 1.1%  
329 0.3% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.2% 99.6%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.3% 99.2%  
268 0.5% 98.9%  
269 0.7% 98%  
270 0.7% 98%  
271 1.2% 97%  
272 2% 96%  
273 2% 94%  
274 3% 92%  
275 1.1% 90%  
276 3% 88%  
277 2% 86%  
278 2% 84%  
279 3% 82%  
280 5% 79%  
281 1.0% 74%  
282 2% 73%  
283 2% 71%  
284 2% 69%  
285 1.2% 67%  
286 2% 66%  
287 5% 64%  
288 3% 58%  
289 11% 55% Median
290 9% 44%  
291 3% 35%  
292 6% 32%  
293 5% 26%  
294 2% 21%  
295 5% 19%  
296 2% 15%  
297 1.3% 12%  
298 3% 11%  
299 2% 8%  
300 3% 6%  
301 0.9% 3%  
302 1.1% 2%  
303 0.2% 1.2%  
304 0.4% 1.0%  
305 0.2% 0.6%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0.1% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0.1% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0.7% 99.7%  
253 0.4% 99.0%  
254 1.2% 98.6%  
255 0.8% 97%  
256 0.3% 97%  
257 0.3% 96%  
258 0.2% 96%  
259 0.1% 96%  
260 2% 96%  
261 2% 94%  
262 11% 91%  
263 17% 81%  
264 9% 64%  
265 12% 55% Median
266 11% 44%  
267 5% 33%  
268 4% 28%  
269 7% 23%  
270 1.2% 16%  
271 1.4% 15%  
272 0.2% 14%  
273 0.2% 13%  
274 0.2% 13%  
275 0.2% 13%  
276 0.5% 13%  
277 0.4% 12%  
278 1.3% 12%  
279 0.6% 11%  
280 0.9% 10%  
281 1.4% 9%  
282 1.2% 8%  
283 2% 7%  
284 0.7% 4%  
285 2% 4%  
286 0.3% 2%  
287 0.5% 2%  
288 0% 1.1%  
289 0.1% 1.1%  
290 0% 1.0%  
291 0.1% 1.0%  
292 0% 0.9%  
293 0.3% 0.9%  
294 0.1% 0.6%  
295 0.3% 0.5%  
296 0.1% 0.2%  
297 0.1% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.7%  
159 0.1% 99.6%  
160 0.1% 99.5%  
161 0.2% 99.4%  
162 0.6% 99.2%  
163 1.0% 98.7%  
164 2% 98%  
165 2% 96%  
166 2% 94%  
167 1.3% 92%  
168 2% 91%  
169 1.0% 89%  
170 4% 88%  
171 5% 85%  
172 4% 79%  
173 9% 76%  
174 6% 66%  
175 4% 61%  
176 2% 56%  
177 3% 55% Median
178 2% 52%  
179 7% 50%  
180 7% 44%  
181 10% 37%  
182 6% 27%  
183 2% 21%  
184 3% 18%  
185 3% 15%  
186 1.4% 13%  
187 1.2% 11%  
188 3% 10%  
189 2% 7%  
190 2% 5%  
191 2% 4%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.3%  
194 0.1% 1.0%  
195 0.1% 0.9%  
196 0.2% 0.7%  
197 0.3% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0.2% 99.5%  
153 0.2% 99.3%  
154 0.3% 99.1%  
155 0.4% 98.9%  
156 0.3% 98%  
157 1.4% 98%  
158 1.0% 97%  
159 0.8% 96%  
160 1.5% 95%  
161 1.5% 94%  
162 2% 92%  
163 2% 90%  
164 4% 88%  
165 2% 84%  
166 6% 82%  
167 6% 76%  
168 3% 70%  
169 4% 67%  
170 5% 62%  
171 4% 57% Median
172 13% 53%  
173 5% 40%  
174 5% 35%  
175 4% 31%  
176 7% 26%  
177 3% 19%  
178 5% 16%  
179 1.3% 11%  
180 2% 9%  
181 2% 8%  
182 0.9% 5%  
183 2% 5%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.4% 1.5%  
186 0.5% 1.1%  
187 0.3% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations