Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 20–23 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.2–23.8% 19.7–24.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.2% 20.0–22.3% 19.7–22.7% 19.4–23.0% 18.9–23.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.3–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 166 157–173 155–176 153–178 148–184
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 158 152–168 149–171 147–172 143–177
Alternative für Deutschland 94 120 113–129 111–132 109–134 106–137
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 106 98–111 96–114 95–117 91–121
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 61 55–65 53–68 51–69 50–72
Die Linke 69 60 56–66 54–67 52–69 49–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 34–42 32–44 31–45 29–46

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 0.2% 99.5%  
150 0.5% 99.3%  
151 0.3% 98.9%  
152 0.4% 98.6%  
153 0.7% 98%  
154 2% 97%  
155 2% 96%  
156 2% 94%  
157 7% 92%  
158 2% 86%  
159 6% 84%  
160 1.3% 78%  
161 4% 77%  
162 5% 72%  
163 4% 67%  
164 10% 64%  
165 0.9% 54%  
166 18% 53% Median
167 2% 35%  
168 13% 33%  
169 0.5% 20%  
170 4% 20%  
171 3% 16%  
172 3% 13%  
173 1.4% 11%  
174 1.0% 9%  
175 1.0% 8%  
176 2% 7%  
177 0.7% 5%  
178 2% 4%  
179 0.2% 2%  
180 0.4% 2%  
181 0.6% 2%  
182 0.1% 0.9%  
183 0.3% 0.8%  
184 0% 0.5%  
185 0.2% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.3% 99.7%  
144 0.3% 99.4%  
145 0.4% 99.1%  
146 0.4% 98.8%  
147 1.2% 98%  
148 1.1% 97%  
149 1.1% 96%  
150 2% 95%  
151 2% 93%  
152 3% 91%  
153 2% 88%  
154 2% 86%  
155 9% 84%  
156 14% 75%  
157 4% 61%  
158 8% 57% Median
159 3% 50%  
160 2% 46%  
161 6% 44%  
162 8% 38%  
163 3% 30%  
164 7% 27%  
165 3% 20%  
166 3% 18%  
167 4% 15%  
168 3% 11%  
169 2% 8%  
170 1.2% 6%  
171 2% 5%  
172 1.2% 3%  
173 0.7% 2%  
174 0.2% 1.3%  
175 0.2% 1.1%  
176 0.2% 0.9%  
177 0.2% 0.7%  
178 0.2% 0.5%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.6%  
106 0.3% 99.5%  
107 0.5% 99.2%  
108 0.3% 98.8%  
109 1.3% 98%  
110 1.3% 97%  
111 1.5% 96%  
112 2% 94%  
113 2% 92%  
114 2% 90%  
115 4% 88%  
116 4% 84%  
117 4% 80%  
118 14% 76%  
119 4% 62%  
120 9% 58% Median
121 6% 49%  
122 5% 43%  
123 14% 38%  
124 5% 25%  
125 4% 19%  
126 1.3% 16%  
127 3% 15%  
128 2% 12%  
129 2% 10%  
130 2% 8%  
131 0.4% 6%  
132 3% 6%  
133 0.6% 3%  
134 0.5% 3%  
135 0.8% 2%  
136 0.7% 1.3%  
137 0.3% 0.7%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.2% 0.3%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.7%  
92 0.2% 99.3%  
93 0.9% 99.1%  
94 0.5% 98%  
95 1.3% 98%  
96 2% 96%  
97 3% 95%  
98 2% 92%  
99 1.4% 90%  
100 7% 88%  
101 3% 82%  
102 10% 79%  
103 3% 70%  
104 12% 66%  
105 3% 54%  
106 14% 51% Median
107 3% 37%  
108 2% 34%  
109 16% 32%  
110 2% 16%  
111 5% 15%  
112 0.6% 10%  
113 3% 9%  
114 0.9% 6%  
115 2% 5%  
116 0.4% 3%  
117 1.0% 3%  
118 0.5% 2%  
119 0.4% 1.3%  
120 0.2% 0.8%  
121 0.2% 0.6%  
122 0.3% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.6%  
50 0.8% 99.6%  
51 2% 98.8%  
52 1.3% 97%  
53 1.1% 95%  
54 4% 94%  
55 3% 90%  
56 2% 87%  
57 7% 85%  
58 7% 77%  
59 2% 70%  
60 4% 68%  
61 18% 64% Median
62 11% 46%  
63 2% 35%  
64 10% 33%  
65 14% 23%  
66 1.2% 9%  
67 3% 8%  
68 3% 5%  
69 1.0% 3%  
70 0.5% 2%  
71 0.6% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 0.5% 99.3%  
51 0.5% 98.8%  
52 1.1% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 1.0% 95%  
55 4% 94%  
56 3% 90%  
57 7% 88%  
58 14% 81%  
59 12% 67%  
60 6% 55% Median
61 6% 49%  
62 6% 43%  
63 12% 37%  
64 7% 24%  
65 5% 17%  
66 5% 12%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 0.6% 3% Last Result
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.3%  
72 0.3% 0.8%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.2% 99.7%  
29 0.4% 99.5%  
30 0.9% 99.1%  
31 1.2% 98%  
32 4% 97%  
33 3% 93%  
34 10% 90%  
35 12% 81%  
36 22% 69% Median
37 15% 47%  
38 5% 32%  
39 7% 27%  
40 6% 20%  
41 4% 15%  
42 3% 11%  
43 3% 8%  
44 2% 5%  
45 2% 3%  
46 1.0% 1.5% Last Result
47 0.3% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 466 100% 458–477 453–481 452–483 448–487
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 422 100% 412–432 410–434 408–437 402–442
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 377 99.9% 369–387 366–391 362–392 357–397
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 363 86% 352–372 349–374 346–377 342–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 360 80% 352–373 349–375 348–376 342–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 332 0.1% 322–340 318–343 317–347 312–352
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 333 0.3% 321–337 320–343 317–346 311–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 317 0% 310–327 305–331 303–332 296–338
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 301 0% 292–312 289–315 288–317 283–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 270 0% 260–280 259–283 257–286 251–290
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 257 0% 249–266 246–270 242–273 237–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 167 0% 158–174 156–176 154–179 150–183
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 168 0% 157–173 156–175 153–178 148–184

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
443 0% 100%  
444 0.1% 99.9%  
445 0.1% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.7%  
447 0.2% 99.7%  
448 0.1% 99.6%  
449 0.2% 99.4%  
450 0.4% 99.3%  
451 0.2% 98.8%  
452 3% 98.7%  
453 1.4% 96%  
454 0.7% 95%  
455 0.6% 94%  
456 2% 93%  
457 1.3% 92%  
458 2% 90%  
459 3% 89%  
460 3% 85%  
461 5% 82%  
462 4% 77%  
463 2% 73%  
464 1.4% 70%  
465 11% 69%  
466 11% 58% Last Result, Median
467 12% 47%  
468 2% 35%  
469 2% 34%  
470 5% 31%  
471 1.1% 26%  
472 2% 25%  
473 4% 23%  
474 5% 19%  
475 2% 14%  
476 1.0% 12%  
477 4% 11%  
478 0.9% 7%  
479 0.9% 7%  
480 0.4% 6%  
481 2% 5%  
482 0.6% 4%  
483 1.3% 3%  
484 0.4% 2%  
485 0.4% 1.2%  
486 0.1% 0.8%  
487 0.4% 0.7%  
488 0.1% 0.3%  
489 0.1% 0.2%  
490 0.1% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0.1% 100%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.9%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0.1% 99.7%  
402 0.1% 99.6%  
403 0.2% 99.5%  
404 0.2% 99.3%  
405 0.3% 99.1%  
406 0.5% 98.7%  
407 0.7% 98%  
408 0.9% 98%  
409 0.7% 97%  
410 2% 96%  
411 1.2% 94%  
412 2% 92%  
413 2% 90%  
414 2% 88%  
415 0.8% 85%  
416 4% 84%  
417 3% 80%  
418 3% 77%  
419 13% 74%  
420 3% 61%  
421 3% 58% Median
422 9% 55%  
423 3% 46%  
424 6% 43%  
425 3% 37%  
426 7% 33%  
427 1.0% 26%  
428 7% 25%  
429 2% 18%  
430 1.4% 16%  
431 2% 15%  
432 4% 12%  
433 0.8% 9%  
434 3% 8%  
435 0.4% 4%  
436 0.3% 4%  
437 1.4% 4%  
438 0.6% 2%  
439 0.4% 2%  
440 0.4% 1.4%  
441 0.4% 1.0%  
442 0.1% 0.6%  
443 0.1% 0.5%  
444 0.1% 0.4%  
445 0.1% 0.2%  
446 0.1% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.2% 99.9% Majority
356 0.2% 99.7%  
357 0.1% 99.6%  
358 0.1% 99.5%  
359 0.1% 99.4%  
360 0.4% 99.3%  
361 1.0% 98.9%  
362 1.0% 98%  
363 0.3% 97%  
364 0.3% 97%  
365 0.5% 96%  
366 2% 96%  
367 3% 94%  
368 0.3% 91%  
369 0.7% 91%  
370 2% 90%  
371 3% 88%  
372 11% 85%  
373 0.6% 74%  
374 1.0% 73%  
375 3% 72% Median
376 16% 69%  
377 6% 53%  
378 3% 47%  
379 1.0% 45%  
380 4% 44%  
381 7% 39%  
382 8% 32%  
383 2% 24%  
384 0.6% 21%  
385 2% 21%  
386 8% 19%  
387 2% 11%  
388 0.8% 9%  
389 0.3% 8%  
390 1.4% 7%  
391 2% 6%  
392 1.4% 4%  
393 0.3% 2%  
394 0.1% 2%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.7% 1.4%  
397 0.3% 0.8%  
398 0.1% 0.5%  
399 0% 0.3%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
337 0% 100%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.3% 99.5%  
344 0.8% 99.2%  
345 0.5% 98%  
346 0.6% 98%  
347 0.8% 97%  
348 1.2% 96%  
349 2% 95%  
350 2% 94%  
351 0.4% 92%  
352 3% 92%  
353 1.0% 89%  
354 2% 88%  
355 2% 86% Majority
356 3% 84%  
357 2% 80%  
358 2% 78%  
359 2% 76%  
360 9% 74%  
361 2% 65% Median
362 12% 63%  
363 3% 50%  
364 5% 47%  
365 3% 42%  
366 10% 39%  
367 2% 29%  
368 8% 27%  
369 4% 19%  
370 4% 15%  
371 0.7% 12%  
372 3% 11%  
373 2% 8%  
374 1.1% 6%  
375 0.9% 5%  
376 0.7% 4%  
377 1.0% 3%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.5% 1.4%  
381 0.2% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0.1% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.3% 99.5%  
343 0.5% 99.3%  
344 0.3% 98.8%  
345 0.4% 98.5%  
346 0.3% 98%  
347 0.4% 98%  
348 0.8% 98%  
349 2% 97%  
350 1.3% 95%  
351 3% 93%  
352 5% 90%  
353 1.3% 85%  
354 3% 84%  
355 3% 80% Majority
356 1.2% 77%  
357 0.9% 76%  
358 11% 75%  
359 3% 64%  
360 13% 61% Median
361 9% 48%  
362 2% 39%  
363 5% 37%  
364 2% 32%  
365 2% 30%  
366 1.1% 28%  
367 1.1% 27%  
368 3% 26%  
369 2% 23%  
370 6% 21%  
371 2% 15%  
372 2% 12%  
373 3% 10%  
374 2% 7%  
375 3% 5%  
376 0.7% 3%  
377 0.2% 2%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.2% 2%  
380 0.1% 1.4%  
381 0.2% 1.3%  
382 0.5% 1.1%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.2% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.7%  
311 0.1% 99.7%  
312 0.3% 99.5%  
313 0.7% 99.2%  
314 0.5% 98.6%  
315 0.1% 98%  
316 0.3% 98%  
317 1.4% 98%  
318 2% 96%  
319 1.4% 94%  
320 0.3% 93%  
321 0.8% 92%  
322 2% 91%  
323 8% 89%  
324 2% 81%  
325 0.6% 79%  
326 2% 79%  
327 8% 76%  
328 7% 68%  
329 4% 61%  
330 1.0% 56%  
331 3% 55%  
332 6% 53% Median
333 16% 47%  
334 3% 31%  
335 1.0% 28%  
336 0.6% 27%  
337 11% 26%  
338 3% 15%  
339 2% 12%  
340 0.7% 10%  
341 0.3% 9%  
342 3% 9%  
343 2% 6%  
344 0.5% 4%  
345 0.3% 4%  
346 0.3% 3%  
347 1.0% 3%  
348 1.0% 2%  
349 0.4% 1.1%  
350 0.1% 0.7%  
351 0.1% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.5%  
353 0.2% 0.4%  
354 0.2% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.7%  
311 0.3% 99.7%  
312 0.3% 99.3%  
313 0.1% 99.1%  
314 0.2% 99.0%  
315 0.6% 98.7%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0.9% 98%  
318 1.2% 97%  
319 0.3% 96%  
320 3% 96%  
321 3% 93%  
322 0.7% 89%  
323 5% 89%  
324 3% 84%  
325 4% 81%  
326 2% 77%  
327 5% 75%  
328 2% 69%  
329 1.2% 67%  
330 8% 66%  
331 2% 57%  
332 3% 56%  
333 14% 53% Median
334 2% 38%  
335 4% 37%  
336 20% 33%  
337 4% 13%  
338 1.2% 9%  
339 0.7% 8%  
340 2% 7%  
341 0.2% 6%  
342 0.4% 6%  
343 2% 5%  
344 0.1% 4%  
345 0.6% 4%  
346 0.8% 3%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.6% 1.3%  
350 0.1% 0.7%  
351 0.1% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.5%  
353 0% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0.1% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.5%  
298 0.3% 99.4%  
299 0.3% 99.1%  
300 0.2% 98.9%  
301 0.6% 98.6%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0.8% 98%  
304 0.7% 97%  
305 2% 96%  
306 1.0% 94%  
307 0.7% 93%  
308 0.8% 93%  
309 1.0% 92%  
310 9% 91%  
311 3% 82%  
312 5% 80%  
313 4% 74%  
314 2% 71% Median
315 13% 69%  
316 5% 56%  
317 10% 51%  
318 4% 41%  
319 5% 37%  
320 4% 32%  
321 0.8% 28%  
322 5% 27%  
323 4% 22%  
324 3% 18%  
325 3% 15%  
326 2% 12%  
327 1.1% 11%  
328 0.5% 9%  
329 3% 9%  
330 0.8% 6%  
331 2% 5%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.5% 1.2%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.2% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2% Last Result
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.3% 99.6%  
284 0.1% 99.4%  
285 0.5% 99.3%  
286 0.5% 98.8%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 3% 98%  
289 0.8% 95%  
290 2% 95%  
291 2% 92%  
292 0.8% 90%  
293 3% 90%  
294 1.4% 87%  
295 1.1% 85%  
296 3% 84%  
297 1.4% 82%  
298 7% 80%  
299 8% 73%  
300 0.9% 65% Median
301 24% 64%  
302 0.9% 40%  
303 2% 39%  
304 11% 37%  
305 1.1% 26%  
306 3% 25%  
307 3% 21%  
308 2% 19%  
309 2% 17%  
310 0.5% 15%  
311 2% 14%  
312 2% 12%  
313 2% 10%  
314 2% 7%  
315 2% 6%  
316 0.6% 4%  
317 1.4% 3%  
318 0.3% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.6% 1.2%  
321 0.1% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.2% 99.9%  
251 0.2% 99.7%  
252 0.4% 99.5%  
253 0.4% 99.1%  
254 0.2% 98.6%  
255 0.2% 98%  
256 0.5% 98%  
257 1.3% 98%  
258 0.6% 96%  
259 4% 96%  
260 2% 92%  
261 2% 89%  
262 2% 88%  
263 2% 86%  
264 1.3% 84%  
265 4% 83%  
266 7% 78%  
267 3% 71%  
268 14% 68%  
269 2% 54%  
270 3% 52%  
271 3% 48%  
272 5% 45% Median
273 1.5% 40%  
274 9% 39%  
275 12% 29%  
276 3% 17%  
277 2% 14%  
278 0.6% 12%  
279 0.9% 11%  
280 4% 10%  
281 1.0% 7%  
282 0.3% 6%  
283 2% 5%  
284 0.5% 4%  
285 0.3% 3%  
286 0.6% 3%  
287 0.3% 2%  
288 0.5% 2%  
289 0.5% 1.3%  
290 0.2% 0.7%  
291 0.1% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0.2% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.6%  
238 0.1% 99.5%  
239 0.3% 99.4%  
240 0.3% 99.1%  
241 0.9% 98.8%  
242 0.5% 98%  
243 0.3% 97%  
244 0.6% 97%  
245 0.6% 97%  
246 2% 96%  
247 0.7% 94%  
248 2% 93%  
249 3% 91%  
250 1.2% 87%  
251 4% 86%  
252 2% 83%  
253 13% 80%  
254 12% 68%  
255 2% 56% Median
256 3% 54%  
257 4% 52%  
258 3% 47%  
259 4% 45%  
260 5% 40%  
261 2% 36%  
262 13% 34%  
263 4% 21%  
264 2% 17%  
265 4% 15%  
266 2% 12%  
267 1.5% 10%  
268 3% 8%  
269 0.5% 6%  
270 1.2% 6%  
271 0.5% 4%  
272 1.0% 4%  
273 2% 3%  
274 0.2% 1.2%  
275 0.2% 0.9%  
276 0.2% 0.7%  
277 0.1% 0.6%  
278 0.1% 0.5%  
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0.1% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.2% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.6%  
150 0.4% 99.5%  
151 0.7% 99.2%  
152 0.2% 98%  
153 0.7% 98%  
154 1.0% 98%  
155 0.8% 97%  
156 1.0% 96%  
157 3% 95%  
158 3% 92%  
159 3% 88%  
160 5% 85%  
161 4% 80%  
162 3% 76%  
163 9% 73%  
164 3% 64%  
165 3% 61%  
166 8% 58% Median
167 13% 50%  
168 3% 38%  
169 10% 35%  
170 3% 24%  
171 5% 22%  
172 4% 17%  
173 2% 13%  
174 3% 11%  
175 2% 9%  
176 3% 7%  
177 0.5% 4%  
178 0.5% 3%  
179 0.8% 3%  
180 0.4% 2%  
181 0.4% 1.4%  
182 0.3% 1.1%  
183 0.3% 0.8%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.2% 0.3%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.6%  
149 0.1% 99.4%  
150 0.1% 99.3%  
151 0.6% 99.2%  
152 0.4% 98.5%  
153 0.8% 98%  
154 0.5% 97%  
155 1.5% 97%  
156 2% 95%  
157 5% 94%  
158 3% 89%  
159 6% 86%  
160 5% 80%  
161 3% 75%  
162 3% 72%  
163 3% 69%  
164 4% 67%  
165 1.4% 63%  
166 2% 61%  
167 4% 59% Median
168 10% 55%  
169 10% 46%  
170 14% 36%  
171 4% 22%  
172 4% 18%  
173 5% 14%  
174 4% 9%  
175 0.9% 5%  
176 0.7% 4%  
177 0.6% 4%  
178 0.7% 3%  
179 0.4% 2%  
180 0.2% 2%  
181 0.7% 2%  
182 0.1% 1.0%  
183 0.2% 0.8%  
184 0.2% 0.6%  
185 0.1% 0.4%  
186 0.2% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations