Opinion Poll by Forsa, 23–27 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.2–23.8% 19.6–24.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 176 168–186 167–190 165–193 160–195
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 170 160–177 156–181 155–182 150–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 100 93–107 92–111 90–112 86–117
Alternative für Deutschland 94 100 93–109 90–110 90–112 87–116
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 69 64–77 61–79 60–80 57–82
Die Linke 69 54 49–59 47–61 46–63 43–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 34–43 32–45 32–47 29–49

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.2% 99.7%  
161 0.2% 99.4%  
162 0.1% 99.3%  
163 0.4% 99.2%  
164 0.4% 98.7%  
165 0.8% 98%  
166 1.3% 97%  
167 5% 96%  
168 5% 91%  
169 4% 86%  
170 6% 82%  
171 3% 75%  
172 4% 73%  
173 2% 68%  
174 4% 66%  
175 9% 62%  
176 14% 54% Median
177 7% 40%  
178 4% 32%  
179 3% 28%  
180 4% 25%  
181 3% 21%  
182 2% 18%  
183 2% 15%  
184 1.2% 13%  
185 1.0% 12%  
186 1.2% 11%  
187 0.5% 10%  
188 0.6% 9%  
189 1.3% 9%  
190 2% 7%  
191 2% 5%  
192 0.7% 3%  
193 1.1% 3%  
194 1.0% 2%  
195 0.2% 0.6%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0.1% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0.1% 100%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0.3% 99.8%  
151 0.4% 99.4%  
152 0.6% 99.0%  
153 0% 98%  
154 0% 98%  
155 2% 98%  
156 2% 96%  
157 2% 95%  
158 0.2% 92%  
159 0.1% 92%  
160 3% 92%  
161 5% 89%  
162 4% 83%  
163 0.4% 80%  
164 0% 79%  
165 4% 79%  
166 15% 75%  
167 5% 60%  
168 0.3% 55%  
169 0% 55%  
170 8% 55% Median
171 18% 47%  
172 4% 29%  
173 0.4% 25%  
174 0% 25%  
175 2% 25%  
176 9% 23%  
177 7% 14%  
178 0% 7%  
179 0% 7%  
180 0.2% 7%  
181 3% 7%  
182 2% 3%  
183 0.1% 1.2%  
184 0% 1.2%  
185 0% 1.2%  
186 0.4% 1.1%  
187 0.6% 0.7%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.5% 99.8%  
87 0.1% 99.4%  
88 1.0% 99.2%  
89 0.4% 98%  
90 0.5% 98%  
91 2% 97%  
92 2% 96%  
93 8% 93%  
94 1.1% 86%  
95 6% 85%  
96 1.1% 79%  
97 5% 78%  
98 5% 73%  
99 6% 68%  
100 18% 62% Median
101 2% 45%  
102 6% 43%  
103 1.4% 37%  
104 11% 35%  
105 4% 24%  
106 8% 20%  
107 4% 12%  
108 0.8% 9%  
109 2% 8%  
110 0.6% 6%  
111 2% 6%  
112 2% 4%  
113 1.0% 2%  
114 0.2% 1.1%  
115 0.1% 0.9%  
116 0.4% 0.9%  
117 0.2% 0.5%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8%  
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.1% 99.6%  
88 0.8% 99.4%  
89 0.7% 98.7%  
90 5% 98%  
91 0.4% 93%  
92 1.3% 92%  
93 3% 91%  
94 1.2% 88% Last Result
95 5% 87%  
96 2% 82%  
97 4% 80%  
98 16% 77%  
99 8% 61%  
100 7% 53% Median
101 7% 46%  
102 3% 39%  
103 2% 36%  
104 6% 34%  
105 6% 28%  
106 3% 22%  
107 3% 19%  
108 1.2% 16%  
109 6% 15%  
110 5% 9%  
111 1.5% 4%  
112 1.4% 3%  
113 0.1% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.5%  
115 0.2% 1.1%  
116 0.6% 1.0%  
117 0.1% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 0.4% 99.3%  
59 0.6% 98.9%  
60 3% 98%  
61 1.3% 95%  
62 1.3% 94%  
63 2% 93%  
64 5% 91%  
65 3% 86%  
66 6% 83%  
67 7% 77%  
68 6% 70%  
69 18% 64% Median
70 11% 46%  
71 8% 35%  
72 4% 27%  
73 7% 23%  
74 2% 16%  
75 0.9% 13%  
76 3% 13%  
77 4% 10%  
78 1.0% 6%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.3% 3% Last Result
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.6%  
44 0.5% 99.4%  
45 0.3% 98.9%  
46 1.5% 98.6%  
47 5% 97%  
48 0.3% 92%  
49 5% 92%  
50 13% 87%  
51 3% 75%  
52 4% 71%  
53 9% 68%  
54 9% 59% Median
55 7% 49%  
56 0.8% 42%  
57 10% 41%  
58 19% 31%  
59 2% 12%  
60 2% 10%  
61 4% 8%  
62 0.8% 3%  
63 0.6% 3%  
64 0.4% 2%  
65 0.8% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.8%  
67 0% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
70 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.5%  
31 0.8% 99.0%  
32 4% 98%  
33 4% 94%  
34 2% 91%  
35 4% 89%  
36 15% 85%  
37 17% 70%  
38 3% 53% Median
39 11% 50%  
40 9% 39%  
41 7% 30%  
42 4% 23%  
43 10% 19%  
44 4% 9%  
45 0.8% 5%  
46 0.7% 4% Last Result
47 2% 3%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 484 100% 475–494 470–497 469–502 464–503
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 453 100% 443–464 440–466 437–469 433–473
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 384 100% 374–393 369–398 367–400 362–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 377 99.7% 368–388 363–391 361–393 357–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 377 99.7% 364–388 361–389 358–389 356–397
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 345 16% 335–357 333–360 330–363 325–368
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 332 0.3% 321–341 318–346 316–348 311–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 308 0% 298–318 293–321 291–325 286–327
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 307 0% 297–319 294–323 293–324 287–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 276 0% 267–287 264–290 262–293 257–298
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 277 0% 265–286 263–291 260–292 256–297
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 169 0% 161–179 158–182 157–184 152–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 155 0% 146–164 144–166 142–168 138–172

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
459 0% 100%  
460 0.1% 99.9%  
461 0.1% 99.9%  
462 0.1% 99.8%  
463 0.2% 99.8%  
464 0.1% 99.6%  
465 0.2% 99.4%  
466 0.1% 99.3% Last Result
467 0.3% 99.1%  
468 0.1% 98.9%  
469 2% 98.7%  
470 2% 97%  
471 0.6% 95%  
472 0.9% 94%  
473 2% 93%  
474 1.3% 92%  
475 2% 90%  
476 1.2% 88%  
477 4% 87%  
478 1.4% 83%  
479 2% 81%  
480 6% 79%  
481 5% 73%  
482 1.3% 69%  
483 11% 67%  
484 16% 56% Median
485 2% 41%  
486 3% 39%  
487 7% 36%  
488 5% 28%  
489 2% 24%  
490 0.3% 22%  
491 4% 22%  
492 5% 17%  
493 0.9% 12%  
494 4% 11%  
495 1.2% 8%  
496 1.0% 7%  
497 0.9% 6%  
498 0.3% 5%  
499 0.5% 4%  
500 0.3% 4%  
501 0.2% 4%  
502 2% 3%  
503 0.8% 1.2%  
504 0.1% 0.4%  
505 0.1% 0.3%  
506 0.1% 0.2%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0.1% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.8%  
431 0.1% 99.8%  
432 0% 99.7%  
433 0.1% 99.6%  
434 0.5% 99.5%  
435 0.4% 99.0%  
436 0.3% 98.6%  
437 1.0% 98%  
438 1.0% 97%  
439 1.0% 96%  
440 0.5% 95%  
441 0.5% 95%  
442 1.1% 94%  
443 4% 93%  
444 3% 89%  
445 1.4% 86%  
446 11% 85%  
447 1.3% 74%  
448 2% 73%  
449 1.4% 70%  
450 4% 69%  
451 2% 65%  
452 4% 62%  
453 13% 58% Median
454 9% 46%  
455 2% 36%  
456 3% 34%  
457 3% 31%  
458 3% 28%  
459 2% 24%  
460 0.6% 23%  
461 5% 22%  
462 3% 17%  
463 4% 14%  
464 2% 10%  
465 1.1% 8%  
466 3% 7%  
467 0.3% 4%  
468 0.4% 3%  
469 0.4% 3%  
470 0.2% 2%  
471 0.7% 2%  
472 0.4% 2%  
473 0.7% 1.2%  
474 0.2% 0.5%  
475 0.1% 0.3%  
476 0% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.2% 99.8%  
362 0.3% 99.6%  
363 0.3% 99.3%  
364 0.1% 99.0%  
365 0.2% 98.9%  
366 0.3% 98.7%  
367 1.4% 98%  
368 1.2% 97%  
369 2% 96%  
370 1.4% 94%  
371 0.5% 93%  
372 0.4% 92%  
373 0.8% 92%  
374 2% 91%  
375 3% 89%  
376 5% 86%  
377 9% 82%  
378 0.6% 72%  
379 1.0% 72%  
380 1.1% 71%  
381 2% 70%  
382 8% 68%  
383 9% 60%  
384 12% 51% Median
385 3% 39%  
386 2% 36%  
387 0.9% 33%  
388 3% 32%  
389 4% 30%  
390 2% 25%  
391 7% 23%  
392 2% 16%  
393 4% 14%  
394 2% 10%  
395 0.4% 8%  
396 1.3% 7%  
397 1.0% 6%  
398 0.9% 5%  
399 0.9% 4%  
400 2% 3%  
401 0.4% 2%  
402 0.2% 1.4%  
403 0% 1.1%  
404 0.3% 1.1%  
405 0.2% 0.7%  
406 0.1% 0.6%  
407 0.2% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0% 99.6%  
357 0.2% 99.5%  
358 0.3% 99.3%  
359 0.1% 99.1%  
360 1.2% 98.9%  
361 0.4% 98%  
362 1.4% 97%  
363 1.2% 96%  
364 0.9% 95%  
365 1.0% 94%  
366 0.7% 93%  
367 0.9% 92%  
368 2% 91%  
369 5% 89%  
370 5% 84%  
371 2% 79%  
372 2% 77%  
373 3% 75%  
374 2% 72%  
375 12% 70%  
376 6% 58%  
377 3% 52% Median
378 3% 49%  
379 2% 46%  
380 5% 44%  
381 4% 39%  
382 6% 35%  
383 2% 29%  
384 3% 27%  
385 8% 24%  
386 1.3% 16%  
387 3% 15%  
388 2% 12%  
389 0.4% 10%  
390 0.6% 9%  
391 5% 9%  
392 1.2% 4%  
393 0.7% 3%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.3% 2%  
396 0.2% 2%  
397 0.4% 1.3%  
398 0.5% 1.0%  
399 0.1% 0.5%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0.1% 100%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0.3% 99.5%  
358 2% 99.2%  
359 0.5% 97%  
360 1.0% 97%  
361 1.2% 96%  
362 0.6% 94%  
363 0.7% 94%  
364 5% 93%  
365 1.3% 88%  
366 0.9% 86%  
367 2% 86%  
368 0.6% 84%  
369 2% 83%  
370 1.4% 81%  
371 0.2% 80%  
372 0.6% 80%  
373 1.3% 79%  
374 1.2% 78%  
375 0.3% 77%  
376 5% 76%  
377 23% 71% Median
378 5% 48%  
379 1.1% 42%  
380 8% 41%  
381 3% 34%  
382 0.3% 31%  
383 0.1% 30%  
384 3% 30%  
385 6% 28%  
386 3% 21%  
387 0.4% 18%  
388 10% 18%  
389 6% 8%  
390 0.8% 2%  
391 0.2% 1.2%  
392 0.1% 1.1%  
393 0.1% 0.9%  
394 0% 0.9%  
395 0.1% 0.8%  
396 0.3% 0.8%  
397 0.2% 0.5%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.2% 99.6%  
326 0.1% 99.4%  
327 0.6% 99.3%  
328 0.2% 98.8%  
329 0.4% 98.6%  
330 1.3% 98%  
331 0.6% 97%  
332 1.3% 96%  
333 0.2% 95%  
334 2% 95%  
335 3% 92%  
336 1.2% 90%  
337 1.5% 89%  
338 4% 87%  
339 2% 83%  
340 6% 81%  
341 4% 75%  
342 2% 71%  
343 2% 69%  
344 4% 67%  
345 14% 63% Median
346 4% 48%  
347 3% 44%  
348 2% 41%  
349 4% 39%  
350 6% 35%  
351 4% 28%  
352 4% 25%  
353 2% 20%  
354 2% 18%  
355 3% 16% Majority
356 2% 13%  
357 2% 11%  
358 2% 9%  
359 1.4% 7%  
360 1.2% 5%  
361 0.6% 4%  
362 0.5% 4%  
363 1.2% 3%  
364 0.7% 2%  
365 0.2% 1.3%  
366 0.2% 1.1%  
367 0.2% 0.9%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.5% 99.5%  
312 0.4% 99.0%  
313 0.2% 98.7%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.3% 98%  
316 0.7% 98%  
317 1.2% 97%  
318 5% 96%  
319 0.6% 91%  
320 0.4% 91%  
321 2% 90%  
322 3% 88%  
323 1.3% 85%  
324 8% 84%  
325 3% 76%  
326 2% 73%  
327 6% 71%  
328 4% 65%  
329 5% 61%  
330 2% 56% Median
331 3% 54%  
332 3% 51%  
333 6% 48%  
334 12% 42%  
335 2% 30%  
336 3% 28%  
337 2% 25%  
338 2% 23%  
339 5% 21%  
340 5% 16%  
341 2% 11%  
342 0.9% 9%  
343 0.7% 8%  
344 1.0% 7%  
345 0.9% 6%  
346 1.2% 5%  
347 1.4% 4%  
348 0.4% 3%  
349 1.2% 2%  
350 0.1% 1.1%  
351 0.3% 0.9%  
352 0.2% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0.2% 99.8%  
286 0.4% 99.6%  
287 0.2% 99.2%  
288 0.3% 99.0%  
289 0.2% 98.7%  
290 0.5% 98%  
291 0.7% 98%  
292 2% 97%  
293 1.1% 96%  
294 1.1% 95%  
295 0.8% 94%  
296 0.9% 93%  
297 2% 92%  
298 2% 90%  
299 5% 88%  
300 3% 83%  
301 4% 81%  
302 1.3% 77%  
303 2% 76%  
304 2% 74%  
305 1.1% 72%  
306 2% 71%  
307 8% 69%  
308 16% 60% Median
309 4% 45%  
310 1.4% 40%  
311 0.9% 39%  
312 10% 38%  
313 3% 28%  
314 3% 25%  
315 1.3% 23%  
316 5% 21%  
317 5% 16%  
318 3% 12%  
319 2% 8%  
320 1.4% 7%  
321 0.6% 5%  
322 0.4% 5%  
323 0.5% 4%  
324 1.3% 4%  
325 0.7% 3%  
326 1.2% 2%  
327 0.2% 0.6%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.2% 99.6%  
288 0.2% 99.4%  
289 0.4% 99.2%  
290 0.2% 98.8%  
291 0.6% 98.6%  
292 0.4% 98%  
293 1.1% 98%  
294 1.5% 96%  
295 1.4% 95%  
296 2% 94%  
297 1.5% 91%  
298 2% 90%  
299 2% 88%  
300 2% 87%  
301 6% 84%  
302 3% 78%  
303 4% 75%  
304 1.3% 72%  
305 4% 71%  
306 14% 66%  
307 3% 53%  
308 4% 50% Median
309 1.4% 46%  
310 2% 45%  
311 5% 42%  
312 7% 37%  
313 3% 31%  
314 7% 28%  
315 2% 21%  
316 1.2% 19%  
317 3% 18%  
318 3% 15%  
319 3% 12%  
320 3% 9%  
321 0.9% 7%  
322 0.4% 6%  
323 2% 5%  
324 1.0% 3%  
325 0.9% 2%  
326 0.3% 1.5%  
327 0.2% 1.2%  
328 0.2% 1.0%  
329 0.1% 0.8%  
330 0.4% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.2% 99.7%  
258 0.3% 99.5%  
259 0.5% 99.2%  
260 0.5% 98.7%  
261 0.3% 98%  
262 1.1% 98%  
263 0.7% 97%  
264 3% 96%  
265 0.4% 93%  
266 3% 93%  
267 0.5% 90%  
268 3% 90%  
269 4% 87%  
270 6% 83%  
271 4% 78%  
272 3% 73%  
273 2% 70%  
274 8% 68%  
275 2% 60%  
276 14% 59% Median
277 2% 45%  
278 2% 42%  
279 4% 40%  
280 5% 36%  
281 8% 31%  
282 3% 23%  
283 2% 20%  
284 0.7% 19%  
285 3% 18%  
286 3% 14%  
287 2% 11%  
288 1.2% 9%  
289 1.1% 7%  
290 2% 6%  
291 0.5% 5%  
292 1.2% 4%  
293 0.9% 3%  
294 0.1% 2%  
295 0.7% 2%  
296 0.5% 1.3%  
297 0.2% 0.9%  
298 0.2% 0.6%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0.1% 0.4%  
301 0% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0.1% 100%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.7%  
256 0.7% 99.7%  
257 0.2% 99.0%  
258 0.8% 98.8%  
259 0.5% 98%  
260 2% 98%  
261 0.3% 96%  
262 0.4% 96%  
263 2% 95%  
264 2% 94%  
265 3% 92%  
266 2% 89%  
267 0.4% 87%  
268 0.3% 86%  
269 2% 86%  
270 3% 84%  
271 8% 81%  
272 4% 73%  
273 2% 69%  
274 0.4% 67%  
275 2% 67%  
276 5% 65%  
277 16% 60% Median
278 3% 44%  
279 5% 41%  
280 0.8% 35%  
281 0.2% 35%  
282 2% 34%  
283 5% 32%  
284 11% 28%  
285 5% 17%  
286 4% 12%  
287 0.3% 9%  
288 0.1% 9%  
289 0.8% 8%  
290 1.0% 8%  
291 4% 7%  
292 0.9% 3%  
293 1.0% 2%  
294 0% 1.0%  
295 0% 1.0%  
296 0.1% 0.9%  
297 0.5% 0.8%  
298 0.1% 0.4%  
299 0.1% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.2% 99.4%  
154 0.2% 99.3%  
155 0.6% 99.1%  
156 0.6% 98%  
157 2% 98%  
158 1.3% 96%  
159 1.5% 95%  
160 0.8% 93%  
161 3% 92%  
162 2% 89%  
163 7% 87%  
164 2% 80%  
165 4% 78%  
166 5% 74%  
167 5% 69%  
168 1.1% 65%  
169 14% 63% Median
170 3% 50%  
171 6% 47%  
172 5% 40%  
173 3% 35%  
174 1.1% 32%  
175 10% 31%  
176 3% 21%  
177 3% 18%  
178 2% 15%  
179 3% 13%  
180 1.5% 10%  
181 1.4% 8%  
182 3% 7%  
183 1.1% 4%  
184 0.4% 3%  
185 0.8% 2%  
186 0.6% 2%  
187 0.1% 1.0%  
188 0.4% 0.9%  
189 0.2% 0.4%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.2% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.7%  
138 0.2% 99.6%  
139 0.3% 99.4%  
140 0.8% 99.1%  
141 0.7% 98%  
142 0.2% 98%  
143 2% 97%  
144 0.6% 95%  
145 3% 94%  
146 3% 92%  
147 4% 89%  
148 2% 85%  
149 2% 83%  
150 9% 82%  
151 3% 72%  
152 3% 69%  
153 6% 66%  
154 9% 60% Median
155 2% 51%  
156 3% 49%  
157 8% 46%  
158 11% 39%  
159 4% 28%  
160 3% 24%  
161 4% 21%  
162 2% 17%  
163 1.4% 15%  
164 5% 13%  
165 2% 8%  
166 1.4% 5%  
167 0.5% 4%  
168 1.4% 3%  
169 0.1% 2%  
170 0.6% 2%  
171 0.2% 1.3%  
172 0.6% 1.1%  
173 0.1% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.3%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations