Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 27–30 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.3–23.9% 19.7–24.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.5% 20.4–22.7% 20.1–23.1% 19.8–23.4% 19.3–23.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 168 157–176 155–177 153–180 150–184
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 163 153–173 152–176 149–177 145–181
Alternative für Deutschland 94 120 113–129 111–131 110–132 107–136
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 99 90–106 89–109 87–110 84–114
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 55–67 54–68 52–70 50–73
Die Linke 69 60 56–67 53–69 52–70 50–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 33–44 32–44 30–46 29–48

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 100%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.8% 99.4%  
152 0.2% 98.6%  
153 0.9% 98%  
154 0.7% 97%  
155 4% 97%  
156 2% 93%  
157 2% 91%  
158 1.0% 89%  
159 3% 88%  
160 4% 85%  
161 5% 81%  
162 7% 76%  
163 3% 69%  
164 5% 66%  
165 3% 61%  
166 3% 59%  
167 5% 55%  
168 7% 51% Median
169 7% 43%  
170 5% 36%  
171 8% 31%  
172 4% 23%  
173 2% 19%  
174 3% 17%  
175 3% 14%  
176 5% 10%  
177 1.0% 6%  
178 1.1% 5%  
179 0.5% 4%  
180 1.2% 3%  
181 0.7% 2%  
182 0.3% 1.4%  
183 0.4% 1.1%  
184 0.3% 0.7%  
185 0.1% 0.4%  
186 0% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.4% 99.7%  
146 0.4% 99.4%  
147 0.1% 99.0%  
148 0.8% 98.9%  
149 1.1% 98%  
150 0.3% 97%  
151 0.5% 97%  
152 5% 96%  
153 2% 92%  
154 0.2% 90%  
155 2% 90%  
156 5% 87%  
157 2% 82%  
158 1.3% 80%  
159 7% 78%  
160 7% 72%  
161 1.0% 65%  
162 6% 64%  
163 11% 58% Median
164 1.4% 47%  
165 2% 45%  
166 13% 43%  
167 6% 30%  
168 0.7% 24%  
169 2% 24%  
170 8% 21%  
171 1.2% 13%  
172 0.7% 12%  
173 3% 11%  
174 2% 8%  
175 0.2% 6%  
176 1.1% 6%  
177 3% 5%  
178 0.3% 2%  
179 0.1% 1.3%  
180 0.3% 1.2%  
181 0.5% 0.8%  
182 0% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0.2% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.7%  
107 0.2% 99.6%  
108 0.6% 99.3%  
109 1.1% 98.7%  
110 2% 98%  
111 2% 96%  
112 4% 94%  
113 6% 91%  
114 6% 85%  
115 3% 79%  
116 4% 76%  
117 10% 72%  
118 4% 62%  
119 2% 58%  
120 6% 56% Median
121 5% 50%  
122 2% 45%  
123 5% 43%  
124 4% 38%  
125 4% 34%  
126 7% 30%  
127 5% 24%  
128 8% 19%  
129 3% 11%  
130 1.2% 7%  
131 3% 6%  
132 2% 4%  
133 0.7% 2%  
134 0.4% 1.3%  
135 0.3% 0.9%  
136 0.2% 0.6%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.6%  
85 0.6% 99.5%  
86 1.0% 98.9%  
87 0.9% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 4% 95%  
90 2% 91%  
91 1.4% 89%  
92 7% 88%  
93 5% 80%  
94 2% 76%  
95 6% 74%  
96 10% 68%  
97 4% 58%  
98 2% 54%  
99 13% 52% Median
100 7% 39%  
101 3% 32%  
102 5% 29%  
103 6% 25%  
104 3% 18%  
105 2% 15%  
106 5% 13%  
107 2% 8%  
108 0.6% 6%  
109 0.7% 5%  
110 3% 5%  
111 0.2% 2%  
112 0.4% 2%  
113 0.6% 1.2%  
114 0.1% 0.6%  
115 0.1% 0.5%  
116 0.2% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.6%  
51 0.8% 99.0%  
52 0.9% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 95%  
55 4% 93%  
56 4% 89%  
57 8% 85%  
58 9% 77%  
59 7% 68%  
60 12% 62% Median
61 8% 50%  
62 12% 42%  
63 5% 30%  
64 5% 25%  
65 4% 20%  
66 5% 15%  
67 3% 11%  
68 3% 8%  
69 0.9% 5%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.1%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.8% 99.8%  
51 1.0% 99.0%  
52 2% 98%  
53 1.3% 96%  
54 3% 95%  
55 1.2% 91%  
56 4% 90%  
57 2% 87%  
58 15% 84%  
59 9% 69%  
60 14% 61% Median
61 15% 47%  
62 5% 32%  
63 4% 28%  
64 1.3% 23%  
65 5% 22%  
66 3% 17%  
67 7% 15%  
68 2% 8%  
69 3% 6% Last Result
70 1.5% 3%  
71 0.1% 1.2%  
72 0.5% 1.0%  
73 0.1% 0.5%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.2%  
31 0.7% 97%  
32 3% 96%  
33 6% 93%  
34 4% 87%  
35 7% 83%  
36 10% 76%  
37 9% 66%  
38 4% 57%  
39 14% 53% Median
40 7% 38%  
41 12% 31%  
42 3% 19%  
43 6% 16%  
44 6% 11%  
45 1.5% 5%  
46 2% 3% Last Result
47 0.5% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.1%  
49 0.1% 0.4%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 467 100% 456–477 453–480 452–481 447–485
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 431 100% 417–439 414–443 412–445 408–450
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 384 100% 372–394 370–398 366–400 362–404
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 370 92% 356–380 353–382 350–384 346–389
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 361 78% 352–370 348–374 345–377 340–381
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 325 0% 315–337 311–339 309–343 305–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 327 0% 314–337 312–340 309–342 305–349
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 323 0% 312–333 308–337 305–338 300–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 299 0% 290–311 287–313 285–315 280–321
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 265 0% 254–275 251–278 250–280 244–288
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 263 0% 252–272 248–276 245–278 241–282
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 159 0% 150–169 148–171 146–173 141–178
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 158 0% 150–169 148–171 146–173 142–179

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0.1% 99.9%  
445 0.2% 99.8%  
446 0.1% 99.6%  
447 0.1% 99.5%  
448 0.3% 99.4%  
449 0.4% 99.1%  
450 0.5% 98.7%  
451 0.5% 98%  
452 1.2% 98%  
453 2% 97%  
454 2% 95%  
455 1.4% 93%  
456 4% 92%  
457 3% 88%  
458 3% 85%  
459 3% 83%  
460 5% 80%  
461 4% 74%  
462 2% 71%  
463 5% 68%  
464 5% 63%  
465 1.1% 59%  
466 6% 58% Last Result
467 4% 52%  
468 5% 49%  
469 6% 44% Median
470 3% 38%  
471 4% 34%  
472 3% 30%  
473 3% 27%  
474 8% 24%  
475 3% 15%  
476 1.3% 13%  
477 2% 11%  
478 1.3% 9%  
479 2% 8%  
480 3% 6%  
481 0.9% 3%  
482 0.4% 2%  
483 0.3% 2%  
484 0.4% 1.3%  
485 0.5% 1.0%  
486 0.1% 0.4%  
487 0.1% 0.3%  
488 0.1% 0.2%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0.2% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.7%  
406 0% 99.7%  
407 0% 99.7%  
408 0.1% 99.6%  
409 0.6% 99.5%  
410 0.4% 98.9%  
411 0.6% 98%  
412 0.5% 98%  
413 1.4% 97%  
414 2% 96%  
415 0.9% 94%  
416 2% 93%  
417 3% 91%  
418 3% 88%  
419 4% 85%  
420 1.3% 81%  
421 4% 80%  
422 4% 76%  
423 3% 72%  
424 2% 69%  
425 1.5% 68%  
426 2% 66%  
427 2% 64%  
428 5% 61%  
429 3% 57%  
430 2% 54% Median
431 5% 52%  
432 5% 48%  
433 9% 43%  
434 4% 34%  
435 1.3% 30%  
436 2% 29%  
437 3% 27%  
438 12% 24%  
439 4% 12%  
440 1.4% 8%  
441 0.8% 7%  
442 0.5% 6%  
443 2% 6%  
444 0.7% 3%  
445 0.9% 3%  
446 0.4% 2%  
447 0.1% 1.3%  
448 0.4% 1.2%  
449 0.2% 0.8%  
450 0.2% 0.6%  
451 0.2% 0.5%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0.1% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0% 99.7%  
361 0.2% 99.7%  
362 0.4% 99.5%  
363 0.2% 99.2%  
364 0.8% 99.0%  
365 0.2% 98%  
366 0.6% 98%  
367 0.3% 97%  
368 0.6% 97%  
369 0.2% 96%  
370 3% 96%  
371 0.5% 93%  
372 3% 92%  
373 1.3% 90%  
374 4% 88%  
375 3% 85%  
376 2% 82%  
377 3% 80%  
378 5% 77%  
379 2% 73%  
380 7% 71%  
381 6% 64%  
382 3% 58% Median
383 3% 55%  
384 9% 51%  
385 3% 42%  
386 2% 39%  
387 6% 37%  
388 3% 31%  
389 6% 28%  
390 3% 21%  
391 3% 18%  
392 1.4% 16%  
393 3% 14%  
394 2% 12%  
395 2% 10%  
396 0.8% 7%  
397 0.7% 6%  
398 2% 6%  
399 0.7% 3%  
400 0.4% 3%  
401 1.2% 2%  
402 0.1% 1.0%  
403 0.2% 0.9%  
404 0.1% 0.6%  
405 0.1% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.2% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0% 99.7%  
346 0.2% 99.6%  
347 0.2% 99.4%  
348 0.3% 99.2%  
349 0.5% 98.9%  
350 1.4% 98%  
351 1.0% 97%  
352 0.6% 96%  
353 2% 95%  
354 2% 94%  
355 1.4% 92% Majority
356 2% 90%  
357 3% 89%  
358 1.0% 86%  
359 3% 85%  
360 4% 82%  
361 5% 78%  
362 4% 73%  
363 2% 69%  
364 2% 67%  
365 1.2% 65%  
366 3% 63%  
367 2% 61%  
368 3% 59%  
369 5% 56%  
370 4% 51% Median
371 5% 47%  
372 5% 41%  
373 1.4% 36%  
374 3% 34%  
375 4% 31%  
376 3% 27%  
377 4% 23%  
378 8% 20%  
379 2% 12%  
380 0.4% 10%  
381 5% 10%  
382 2% 5%  
383 0.4% 3%  
384 0.4% 3%  
385 0.9% 2%  
386 0.2% 1.4%  
387 0.3% 1.3%  
388 0.5% 1.0%  
389 0.1% 0.5%  
390 0.2% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.2% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.2% 99.5%  
341 0.2% 99.3%  
342 0.9% 99.2%  
343 0.2% 98%  
344 0.4% 98%  
345 0.8% 98%  
346 0.6% 97%  
347 1.0% 96%  
348 0.6% 95%  
349 1.0% 95%  
350 3% 94%  
351 0.9% 91%  
352 6% 90%  
353 1.4% 84%  
354 5% 83%  
355 7% 78% Majority
356 3% 71%  
357 3% 68%  
358 3% 65%  
359 5% 61%  
360 4% 56%  
361 5% 52% Median
362 2% 47%  
363 10% 45%  
364 2% 35%  
365 8% 33%  
366 2% 25%  
367 4% 23%  
368 3% 19%  
369 1.4% 16%  
370 5% 14%  
371 0.7% 9%  
372 1.1% 9%  
373 2% 8%  
374 2% 6%  
375 0.7% 4%  
376 0.6% 4%  
377 0.9% 3%  
378 0.8% 2%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.4% 1.1%  
381 0.3% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.4%  
383 0.2% 0.3%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0.2% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.6%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.2% 99.4%  
307 0.1% 99.1%  
308 1.2% 99.0%  
309 0.4% 98%  
310 0.7% 97%  
311 2% 97%  
312 0.7% 94%  
313 0.8% 94%  
314 2% 93%  
315 2% 90%  
316 3% 88%  
317 1.4% 86%  
318 3% 84%  
319 3% 82%  
320 6% 79%  
321 3% 72%  
322 6% 69%  
323 2% 63%  
324 3% 61%  
325 9% 58%  
326 3% 49%  
327 3% 45% Median
328 6% 42%  
329 7% 36%  
330 2% 29%  
331 5% 27%  
332 3% 23%  
333 2% 20%  
334 3% 18%  
335 4% 15%  
336 1.3% 12%  
337 3% 10%  
338 0.5% 8%  
339 3% 7%  
340 0.2% 4%  
341 0.6% 4%  
342 0.3% 3%  
343 0.6% 3%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.8% 2%  
346 0.2% 1.0%  
347 0.4% 0.8%  
348 0.2% 0.5%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0% Majority

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.2% 99.7%  
306 0.5% 99.5%  
307 0.3% 98.9%  
308 0.4% 98.6%  
309 0.9% 98%  
310 0.3% 97%  
311 0.4% 97%  
312 3% 97%  
313 2% 94%  
314 2% 92%  
315 4% 90%  
316 0.7% 86%  
317 4% 85%  
318 2% 81%  
319 4% 79%  
320 3% 75%  
321 4% 72%  
322 3% 68%  
323 2% 65%  
324 8% 62%  
325 1.5% 55%  
326 3% 53%  
327 10% 50% Median
328 6% 41%  
329 3% 35%  
330 4% 32%  
331 4% 29%  
332 3% 24%  
333 4% 21%  
334 1.5% 17%  
335 3% 16%  
336 2% 12%  
337 2% 10%  
338 1.1% 8%  
339 0.8% 7%  
340 2% 6%  
341 0.8% 3%  
342 0.4% 3%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.4% 1.3%  
347 0.3% 1.0%  
348 0.1% 0.7%  
349 0.3% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0.1% 0.1%  
355 0% 0% Majority

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0.1% 100%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.2% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.2% 99.5%  
301 0.1% 99.3%  
302 0.2% 99.1%  
303 0.2% 98.9%  
304 1.0% 98.7%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.2% 97%  
307 0.3% 97%  
308 3% 97%  
309 0.7% 94%  
310 2% 93%  
311 0.8% 91%  
312 1.2% 90%  
313 2% 89%  
314 2% 86%  
315 3% 85%  
316 3% 81%  
317 4% 78%  
318 7% 74%  
319 2% 67%  
320 3% 64%  
321 4% 61%  
322 4% 58% Median
323 5% 54%  
324 10% 49%  
325 3% 38%  
326 3% 35%  
327 5% 32%  
328 4% 27%  
329 4% 24%  
330 2% 20%  
331 4% 18%  
332 2% 15%  
333 3% 12%  
334 2% 10%  
335 0.8% 8%  
336 2% 7%  
337 3% 6%  
338 1.0% 3%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0.2% 2% Last Result
341 0.3% 1.4%  
342 0.3% 1.1%  
343 0.3% 0.8%  
344 0.2% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.2% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.2% 99.5%  
281 0.3% 99.3%  
282 0.6% 99.0%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0.5% 98%  
285 1.0% 98%  
286 0.7% 97%  
287 2% 96%  
288 1.0% 94%  
289 3% 93%  
290 3% 91%  
291 1.3% 88%  
292 4% 87%  
293 3% 83%  
294 4% 80%  
295 4% 76%  
296 3% 72%  
297 7% 69%  
298 4% 62%  
299 8% 58%  
300 4% 50%  
301 2% 46% Median
302 4% 44%  
303 9% 40%  
304 4% 30%  
305 5% 27%  
306 2% 22%  
307 3% 20%  
308 5% 18%  
309 1.5% 13%  
310 1.5% 12%  
311 3% 10%  
312 2% 7%  
313 2% 6%  
314 0.4% 4%  
315 1.0% 3%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.8% 2%  
319 0.3% 1.0%  
320 0.1% 0.6%  
321 0.2% 0.5%  
322 0.1% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0.1% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.2% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.6% 99.5%  
246 0.1% 98.9%  
247 0.1% 98.9%  
248 0.6% 98.7%  
249 0.2% 98%  
250 2% 98%  
251 2% 96%  
252 0.5% 94%  
253 1.0% 94%  
254 3% 93%  
255 4% 90%  
256 2% 85%  
257 3% 84%  
258 3% 80%  
259 3% 77%  
260 4% 74%  
261 5% 70%  
262 4% 65%  
263 5% 61%  
264 1.2% 56%  
265 6% 55%  
266 3% 49%  
267 9% 45% Median
268 4% 37%  
269 3% 33%  
270 2% 30%  
271 8% 28%  
272 2% 19%  
273 2% 17%  
274 2% 15%  
275 4% 13%  
276 1.0% 9%  
277 1.0% 8%  
278 3% 7%  
279 1.4% 4%  
280 0.4% 3%  
281 0.6% 2%  
282 0.5% 2%  
283 0.3% 1.3%  
284 0.1% 1.1%  
285 0.1% 1.0%  
286 0.2% 0.8%  
287 0.1% 0.6%  
288 0.4% 0.6%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0.1% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0.2% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.7% 99.5%  
243 0.7% 98.8%  
244 0.2% 98%  
245 0.9% 98%  
246 0.3% 97%  
247 1.2% 97%  
248 1.2% 95%  
249 2% 94%  
250 1.2% 93%  
251 0.5% 91%  
252 2% 91%  
253 2% 89%  
254 5% 87%  
255 1.2% 82%  
256 7% 81%  
257 4% 74%  
258 2% 71%  
259 5% 68%  
260 5% 64%  
261 2% 59%  
262 5% 57% Median
263 3% 52%  
264 4% 49%  
265 3% 46%  
266 6% 43%  
267 8% 37%  
268 3% 29%  
269 6% 25%  
270 3% 19%  
271 4% 17%  
272 3% 12%  
273 2% 9%  
274 0.5% 8%  
275 2% 7%  
276 1.0% 5%  
277 1.4% 4%  
278 0.5% 3%  
279 0.5% 2%  
280 0.7% 2%  
281 0.3% 1.1%  
282 0.4% 0.8%  
283 0.1% 0.4%  
284 0.1% 0.3%  
285 0.1% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.2% 99.7%  
142 0.3% 99.4%  
143 0.3% 99.1%  
144 0.4% 98.8%  
145 0.8% 98%  
146 0.8% 98%  
147 1.1% 97%  
148 0.8% 96%  
149 4% 95%  
150 4% 90%  
151 2% 86%  
152 3% 85%  
153 5% 82%  
154 8% 77%  
155 5% 69%  
156 2% 63%  
157 6% 61%  
158 2% 55%  
159 7% 53% Median
160 5% 47%  
161 5% 42%  
162 5% 36%  
163 3% 31%  
164 6% 28%  
165 3% 22%  
166 4% 19%  
167 4% 15%  
168 2% 12%  
169 3% 10%  
170 0.8% 7%  
171 2% 6%  
172 2% 5%  
173 0.3% 3%  
174 0.8% 2%  
175 0.2% 2%  
176 0.4% 1.5%  
177 0.5% 1.1%  
178 0.2% 0.5%  
179 0.1% 0.4%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.2% 99.7%  
142 0.1% 99.5%  
143 0.2% 99.4%  
144 0.7% 99.2%  
145 0.6% 98%  
146 1.0% 98%  
147 1.2% 97%  
148 2% 96%  
149 3% 93%  
150 3% 90%  
151 3% 87%  
152 1.0% 85%  
153 6% 84%  
154 5% 78%  
155 4% 73%  
156 12% 68%  
157 4% 57%  
158 5% 53%  
159 4% 48% Median
160 5% 44%  
161 3% 40%  
162 6% 36%  
163 4% 31%  
164 4% 27%  
165 3% 23%  
166 3% 20%  
167 4% 17%  
168 3% 13%  
169 3% 11%  
170 1.4% 8%  
171 2% 7%  
172 2% 5%  
173 0.6% 3%  
174 0.6% 2%  
175 0.5% 2%  
176 0.3% 1.4%  
177 0.3% 1.0%  
178 0.2% 0.8%  
179 0.3% 0.6%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations