Opinion Poll by Kantar for Bild am Sonntag, 26 September–1 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.6–23.4% 20.2–23.8% 19.9–24.2% 19.3–24.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.6–22.4% 19.3–22.8% 19.0–23.2% 18.3–23.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.8–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 13.8–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 160 153–179 152–180 151–182 148–187
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 146–169 144–172 142–173 139–178
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 105–122 102–125 100–128 95–131
Alternative für Deutschland 94 114 105–122 101–124 99–127 96–132
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 61 54–68 52–70 50–72 48–76
Die Linke 69 61 54–67 52–70 50–72 48–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 33–44 31–46 30–48 28–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.6%  
148 0.1% 99.6%  
149 0.2% 99.4%  
150 0.8% 99.3%  
151 3% 98%  
152 3% 96%  
153 3% 93%  
154 1.0% 90%  
155 1.2% 89%  
156 3% 87%  
157 11% 84%  
158 11% 73%  
159 12% 62%  
160 7% 50% Median
161 1.4% 43%  
162 2% 42%  
163 2% 40%  
164 5% 38%  
165 5% 33%  
166 2% 28%  
167 0.9% 26%  
168 0.3% 25%  
169 0.2% 24%  
170 0.4% 24%  
171 0.6% 24%  
172 2% 23%  
173 3% 21%  
174 2% 19%  
175 1.0% 17%  
176 0.5% 16%  
177 0.5% 15%  
178 2% 15%  
179 4% 12%  
180 5% 9%  
181 1.1% 4%  
182 0.5% 3%  
183 0.3% 2%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.3% 2%  
186 0.7% 1.3%  
187 0.4% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.7%  
138 0% 99.6%  
139 0.2% 99.6%  
140 0.2% 99.4%  
141 0.8% 99.1%  
142 1.2% 98%  
143 0.6% 97%  
144 3% 96%  
145 3% 94%  
146 2% 91%  
147 3% 89%  
148 2% 87%  
149 1.4% 84%  
150 2% 83%  
151 1.3% 81%  
152 2% 80%  
153 3% 78%  
154 3% 75%  
155 7% 72%  
156 6% 65%  
157 3% 60%  
158 11% 57% Median
159 13% 46%  
160 4% 33%  
161 5% 29%  
162 4% 24%  
163 3% 20%  
164 2% 18%  
165 1.2% 16%  
166 1.1% 15%  
167 2% 14%  
168 0.8% 12%  
169 1.4% 11%  
170 3% 10%  
171 2% 7%  
172 3% 6%  
173 0.5% 3%  
174 0.5% 2%  
175 0.7% 2%  
176 0.4% 1.1%  
177 0.1% 0.7%  
178 0.2% 0.6%  
179 0.1% 0.4%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.4% 99.8%  
96 0.5% 99.4%  
97 0.2% 98.9%  
98 0.3% 98.7%  
99 0.2% 98%  
100 0.8% 98%  
101 0.9% 97%  
102 2% 96%  
103 3% 95%  
104 1.5% 92%  
105 3% 90%  
106 6% 87%  
107 1.0% 81%  
108 4% 80%  
109 8% 76%  
110 6% 68%  
111 4% 62%  
112 2% 58%  
113 2% 55%  
114 10% 54% Median
115 8% 44%  
116 10% 36%  
117 3% 26%  
118 3% 23%  
119 2% 20%  
120 0.9% 17%  
121 2% 17%  
122 5% 14%  
123 2% 10%  
124 2% 8%  
125 3% 6%  
126 0.2% 4%  
127 0.6% 3%  
128 1.0% 3%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.7% 2%  
131 0.3% 0.8%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
95 0.2% 99.8%  
96 0.4% 99.6%  
97 0.3% 99.2%  
98 0.5% 98.8%  
99 1.1% 98%  
100 2% 97%  
101 1.0% 96%  
102 1.2% 95%  
103 0.9% 94%  
104 2% 93%  
105 2% 91%  
106 0.9% 89%  
107 3% 88%  
108 5% 85%  
109 6% 80%  
110 12% 74%  
111 2% 62%  
112 5% 60%  
113 3% 54%  
114 12% 51% Median
115 2% 39%  
116 2% 36%  
117 4% 34%  
118 3% 31%  
119 6% 27%  
120 3% 21%  
121 3% 18%  
122 7% 15%  
123 1.4% 8%  
124 2% 6%  
125 0.6% 4%  
126 0.6% 4%  
127 0.6% 3%  
128 0.3% 2%  
129 0.2% 2%  
130 0.4% 2%  
131 0.2% 1.5%  
132 0.8% 1.3%  
133 0% 0.5%  
134 0.3% 0.4%  
135 0% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.3% 99.6%  
49 0.6% 99.3%  
50 2% 98.7%  
51 0.7% 97%  
52 2% 96%  
53 2% 95%  
54 6% 92%  
55 2% 86%  
56 3% 84%  
57 6% 81%  
58 5% 75%  
59 3% 70%  
60 10% 67%  
61 8% 57% Median
62 4% 49%  
63 12% 45%  
64 8% 33%  
65 3% 25%  
66 2% 22%  
67 6% 19%  
68 6% 13%  
69 1.2% 7%  
70 2% 6%  
71 1.2% 4%  
72 1.0% 3%  
73 0.4% 2%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.9%  
76 0.1% 0.6%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.5% 99.6%  
49 0.6% 99.0%  
50 0.9% 98%  
51 1.1% 97%  
52 2% 96%  
53 2% 94%  
54 3% 92%  
55 4% 89%  
56 7% 85%  
57 7% 78%  
58 5% 71%  
59 7% 65%  
60 7% 59%  
61 4% 52% Median
62 7% 48%  
63 11% 41%  
64 3% 30%  
65 3% 26%  
66 10% 23%  
67 3% 13%  
68 2% 10%  
69 2% 8% Last Result
70 2% 6%  
71 1.4% 5%  
72 1.0% 3%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.7% 1.3%  
75 0.1% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.6%  
29 1.2% 99.0%  
30 1.5% 98%  
31 3% 96%  
32 2% 93%  
33 3% 91%  
34 3% 88%  
35 3% 85%  
36 7% 82%  
37 5% 76%  
38 6% 70%  
39 14% 64%  
40 16% 51% Median
41 9% 35%  
42 6% 26%  
43 9% 20%  
44 2% 11%  
45 2% 8%  
46 2% 7% Last Result
47 1.2% 5%  
48 1.3% 4%  
49 1.2% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.1%  
51 0.4% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 472 100% 462–485 458–489 455–493 451–499
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 421 100% 409–433 405–438 402–441 397–448
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 378 99.1% 365–390 361–393 357–397 351–401
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 377 98.9% 365–390 363–392 358–395 351–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 356 76% 347–374 345–378 342–383 337–387
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 332 1.1% 319–344 317–346 314–351 307–358
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 333 1.2% 319–345 316–348 314–350 307–358
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 314 0% 306–328 300–331 296–337 292–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 316 0% 304–328 300–333 297–336 291–340
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 272 0% 260–282 255–287 252–288 248–296
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 263 0% 251–276 248–280 246–283 241–290
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 174 0% 163–184 160–188 157–191 153–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 174 0% 164–184 161–188 158–190 153–196

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0.1% 99.9%  
448 0.1% 99.8%  
449 0.1% 99.8%  
450 0.1% 99.6%  
451 0.2% 99.5%  
452 0.2% 99.4%  
453 1.1% 99.2%  
454 0.1% 98%  
455 0.7% 98%  
456 0.7% 97%  
457 0.8% 97%  
458 1.4% 96%  
459 0.7% 94%  
460 1.5% 94%  
461 2% 92%  
462 1.1% 90%  
463 2% 89%  
464 5% 88%  
465 1.0% 82%  
466 5% 81% Last Result
467 5% 77%  
468 2% 72%  
469 9% 70%  
470 5% 61%  
471 0.7% 56%  
472 8% 56% Median
473 4% 48%  
474 1.3% 44%  
475 6% 43%  
476 2% 37%  
477 4% 35%  
478 1.2% 31%  
479 5% 30%  
480 1.1% 24%  
481 2% 23%  
482 4% 21%  
483 1.5% 17%  
484 3% 16%  
485 5% 13%  
486 1.3% 9%  
487 1.4% 7%  
488 0.7% 6%  
489 0.5% 5%  
490 0.7% 5%  
491 1.2% 4%  
492 0.2% 3%  
493 0.5% 3%  
494 0.6% 2%  
495 0.1% 1.5%  
496 0.6% 1.3%  
497 0.1% 0.8%  
498 0.1% 0.7%  
499 0.3% 0.6%  
500 0.1% 0.3%  
501 0.1% 0.2%  
502 0.1% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9% Last Result
394 0.1% 99.9%  
395 0.2% 99.8%  
396 0.1% 99.7%  
397 0.4% 99.6%  
398 0% 99.2%  
399 0.2% 99.2%  
400 1.0% 99.0%  
401 0.5% 98%  
402 1.0% 98%  
403 0.2% 97%  
404 0.8% 96%  
405 1.2% 96%  
406 0.9% 94%  
407 0.4% 93%  
408 2% 93%  
409 3% 92%  
410 0.8% 89%  
411 2% 88%  
412 2% 86%  
413 0.6% 85%  
414 2% 84%  
415 11% 82%  
416 2% 71%  
417 2% 69%  
418 6% 67%  
419 1.4% 61% Median
420 9% 60%  
421 5% 51%  
422 3% 46%  
423 8% 43%  
424 3% 35%  
425 2% 33%  
426 2% 30%  
427 3% 28%  
428 4% 25%  
429 0.6% 21%  
430 4% 21%  
431 3% 17%  
432 4% 14%  
433 1.0% 10%  
434 1.3% 9%  
435 1.2% 8%  
436 0.6% 7%  
437 0.9% 6%  
438 1.1% 5%  
439 0.4% 4%  
440 0.5% 4%  
441 0.9% 3%  
442 0.3% 2%  
443 0.2% 2%  
444 0.5% 2%  
445 0.6% 1.3%  
446 0.1% 0.8%  
447 0.1% 0.7%  
448 0.2% 0.6%  
449 0.1% 0.4%  
450 0.2% 0.3%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.2% 99.9%  
351 0.3% 99.6%  
352 0.1% 99.4%  
353 0.1% 99.3%  
354 0.1% 99.1%  
355 0.1% 99.1% Majority
356 0.2% 99.0%  
357 2% 98.7%  
358 0.4% 97%  
359 0.5% 96%  
360 0.7% 96%  
361 0.3% 95%  
362 1.0% 95%  
363 1.1% 94%  
364 0.4% 93%  
365 4% 92%  
366 3% 89%  
367 1.3% 86%  
368 0.7% 84%  
369 1.3% 84%  
370 9% 82%  
371 3% 73%  
372 4% 70%  
373 3% 65%  
374 2% 62%  
375 1.5% 60% Median
376 3% 58%  
377 5% 56%  
378 13% 51%  
379 1.4% 38%  
380 7% 37%  
381 0.9% 30%  
382 1.5% 29%  
383 2% 27%  
384 3% 25%  
385 6% 22%  
386 2% 17%  
387 1.2% 14%  
388 1.0% 13%  
389 1.1% 12%  
390 2% 11%  
391 2% 9%  
392 1.3% 7%  
393 2% 6%  
394 0.6% 4%  
395 0.6% 4%  
396 0.4% 3%  
397 0.5% 3%  
398 0.3% 2%  
399 0.8% 2%  
400 0.1% 1.0%  
401 0.4% 0.9%  
402 0% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.2% 99.8%  
351 0.3% 99.7%  
352 0.3% 99.3%  
353 0.1% 99.0%  
354 0.1% 99.0%  
355 0.5% 98.9% Majority
356 0.2% 98%  
357 0.5% 98%  
358 1.2% 98%  
359 0.6% 96%  
360 0.2% 96%  
361 0.3% 96%  
362 0.2% 95%  
363 1.0% 95%  
364 3% 94%  
365 0.8% 91%  
366 2% 90%  
367 1.0% 88%  
368 1.2% 87%  
369 1.4% 86%  
370 9% 84%  
371 5% 75%  
372 10% 70%  
373 2% 60%  
374 5% 58%  
375 1.0% 54% Median
376 2% 53%  
377 5% 50%  
378 5% 46%  
379 1.1% 41%  
380 2% 40%  
381 1.0% 38%  
382 0.8% 37%  
383 4% 36%  
384 4% 32%  
385 5% 28%  
386 2% 23%  
387 5% 21%  
388 1.4% 16%  
389 2% 15%  
390 4% 13%  
391 4% 9%  
392 2% 6%  
393 0.8% 4%  
394 0.2% 3%  
395 0.3% 3%  
396 0.4% 2%  
397 0.5% 2%  
398 0.4% 1.4%  
399 0.4% 1.0%  
400 0% 0.6%  
401 0.1% 0.6%  
402 0% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0.1% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0.2% 99.8%  
337 0.5% 99.6%  
338 0.6% 99.1%  
339 0.2% 98.6%  
340 0.1% 98%  
341 0.3% 98%  
342 0.5% 98%  
343 0.9% 97%  
344 0.8% 97%  
345 1.4% 96%  
346 4% 94%  
347 1.2% 90%  
348 0.3% 89%  
349 0.9% 89%  
350 1.3% 88%  
351 0.8% 86%  
352 5% 86%  
353 4% 81%  
354 1.1% 77%  
355 15% 76% Majority
356 12% 61%  
357 0.6% 50%  
358 3% 49% Median
359 2% 46%  
360 2% 44%  
361 2% 42%  
362 3% 40%  
363 0.9% 37%  
364 8% 36%  
365 3% 29%  
366 2% 25%  
367 2% 23%  
368 1.0% 21%  
369 0.4% 20%  
370 2% 20%  
371 0.9% 18%  
372 0.9% 17%  
373 5% 16%  
374 3% 11%  
375 0.7% 8%  
376 0.5% 7%  
377 2% 7%  
378 0.3% 5%  
379 0.8% 5%  
380 0.4% 4%  
381 0.3% 4%  
382 0.6% 3%  
383 1.2% 3%  
384 0.7% 2%  
385 0.1% 1.0%  
386 0.4% 0.9%  
387 0.2% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.2% 0.2%  
393 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0% 99.5%  
308 0.1% 99.5%  
309 0% 99.4%  
310 0.4% 99.4%  
311 0.4% 99.0%  
312 0.5% 98.6%  
313 0.4% 98%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.2% 97%  
316 0.8% 97%  
317 2% 96%  
318 4% 94%  
319 4% 91%  
320 2% 87%  
321 1.4% 85%  
322 5% 84%  
323 2% 79%  
324 5% 77%  
325 4% 72%  
326 4% 68%  
327 0.8% 64%  
328 1.0% 63%  
329 2% 62%  
330 1.1% 60%  
331 5% 59%  
332 5% 54%  
333 2% 50% Median
334 1.0% 47%  
335 5% 46%  
336 2% 42%  
337 10% 40%  
338 5% 30%  
339 9% 25%  
340 1.4% 16%  
341 1.2% 14%  
342 1.0% 13%  
343 2% 12%  
344 0.8% 10%  
345 3% 9%  
346 1.0% 6%  
347 0.2% 5%  
348 0.3% 5%  
349 0.2% 4%  
350 0.6% 4%  
351 1.2% 4%  
352 0.5% 2%  
353 0.2% 2%  
354 0.5% 2%  
355 0.1% 1.1% Majority
356 0.1% 1.0%  
357 0.3% 1.0%  
358 0.3% 0.7%  
359 0.2% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.7%  
307 0.3% 99.7%  
308 0.2% 99.4%  
309 0.2% 99.2%  
310 0.3% 99.0%  
311 0.1% 98.7%  
312 0.1% 98.5%  
313 0.9% 98%  
314 1.2% 98%  
315 0.9% 96%  
316 1.0% 95%  
317 0.2% 94%  
318 1.2% 94%  
319 3% 93%  
320 2% 90%  
321 2% 88%  
322 1.3% 86%  
323 3% 84%  
324 4% 81%  
325 2% 78%  
326 3% 75%  
327 4% 72%  
328 4% 69%  
329 2% 64%  
330 3% 63%  
331 1.4% 60%  
332 6% 59%  
333 12% 53% Median
334 3% 41%  
335 4% 38%  
336 2% 34%  
337 2% 32%  
338 9% 30%  
339 2% 21%  
340 1.4% 18%  
341 0.9% 17%  
342 2% 16%  
343 3% 14%  
344 0.8% 11%  
345 3% 10%  
346 0.7% 7%  
347 1.2% 7%  
348 0.8% 6%  
349 2% 5%  
350 0.4% 3%  
351 0.4% 2%  
352 0.6% 2%  
353 0.2% 1.5%  
354 0.1% 1.3%  
355 0.3% 1.2% Majority
356 0.2% 0.9%  
357 0.1% 0.7%  
358 0.3% 0.6%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0.1% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.3% 99.7%  
293 0.3% 99.4%  
294 1.1% 99.1%  
295 0.3% 98%  
296 0.2% 98%  
297 1.4% 97%  
298 0.5% 96%  
299 0.2% 96%  
300 1.2% 95%  
301 0.7% 94%  
302 0.7% 93%  
303 0.7% 93%  
304 2% 92%  
305 0.3% 90%  
306 0.9% 90%  
307 3% 89%  
308 4% 86%  
309 7% 82%  
310 12% 76%  
311 4% 64%  
312 4% 60%  
313 3% 56%  
314 9% 53% Median
315 2% 45%  
316 2% 43%  
317 3% 41%  
318 1.4% 38%  
319 1.0% 37%  
320 2% 36%  
321 2% 34%  
322 4% 32%  
323 6% 29%  
324 4% 22%  
325 1.0% 18%  
326 5% 17%  
327 2% 12%  
328 3% 10%  
329 0.6% 7%  
330 1.1% 7%  
331 0.8% 6%  
332 0.4% 5%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0.2% 4%  
335 0.6% 4%  
336 0.3% 3%  
337 0.8% 3%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.7% 2%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.3% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.6%  
292 0.4% 99.4%  
293 0.1% 99.1%  
294 0.4% 99.0%  
295 0.2% 98.6%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 1.1% 98%  
298 0.9% 97%  
299 0.9% 96%  
300 0.5% 95%  
301 1.1% 95%  
302 1.2% 94%  
303 1.0% 93%  
304 2% 92%  
305 1.2% 90%  
306 3% 88%  
307 1.2% 85%  
308 8% 84%  
309 2% 77%  
310 9% 74%  
311 3% 66%  
312 2% 63%  
313 2% 61%  
314 3% 59% Median
315 5% 56%  
316 2% 50%  
317 4% 48%  
318 3% 44%  
319 2% 41%  
320 7% 39%  
321 4% 32%  
322 3% 28%  
323 5% 25%  
324 1.4% 20%  
325 2% 19%  
326 2% 16%  
327 3% 14%  
328 1.5% 11%  
329 1.5% 10%  
330 0.8% 8%  
331 1.2% 7%  
332 0.7% 6%  
333 0.5% 5%  
334 2% 5%  
335 0.4% 3%  
336 0.5% 3%  
337 0.7% 2%  
338 0.4% 1.4%  
339 0.3% 1.1%  
340 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.6%  
248 0.3% 99.5%  
249 0.1% 99.2%  
250 0.4% 99.1%  
251 0.6% 98.7%  
252 1.0% 98%  
253 0.2% 97%  
254 1.3% 97%  
255 1.1% 96%  
256 1.1% 95%  
257 0.8% 93%  
258 0.7% 93%  
259 1.0% 92%  
260 4% 91%  
261 2% 87%  
262 4% 85%  
263 1.0% 81%  
264 5% 80%  
265 7% 75%  
266 2% 68%  
267 4% 66%  
268 1.4% 62%  
269 3% 61%  
270 5% 57%  
271 2% 52%  
272 3% 51% Median
273 10% 48%  
274 9% 38%  
275 3% 29%  
276 1.1% 26%  
277 2% 25%  
278 2% 23%  
279 3% 20%  
280 2% 17%  
281 2% 15%  
282 4% 14%  
283 0.9% 10%  
284 2% 9%  
285 0.5% 7%  
286 0.4% 7%  
287 3% 6%  
288 0.9% 3%  
289 0.3% 2%  
290 0.5% 2%  
291 0.2% 2%  
292 0.3% 1.3%  
293 0.3% 1.1%  
294 0.1% 0.8%  
295 0.1% 0.7%  
296 0.3% 0.6%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0.1% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.7%  
240 0% 99.6%  
241 0.4% 99.6%  
242 0.6% 99.2%  
243 0.3% 98.7%  
244 0.1% 98%  
245 0.3% 98%  
246 0.9% 98%  
247 0.9% 97%  
248 1.3% 96%  
249 2% 95%  
250 2% 92%  
251 0.6% 90%  
252 0.9% 90%  
253 1.3% 89%  
254 2% 88%  
255 3% 86%  
256 11% 83%  
257 0.7% 72%  
258 2% 71%  
259 0.9% 70%  
260 2% 69%  
261 2% 67% Median
262 12% 65%  
263 8% 53%  
264 0.9% 45%  
265 2% 44%  
266 3% 42%  
267 1.3% 39%  
268 5% 38%  
269 7% 33%  
270 5% 27%  
271 4% 22%  
272 2% 18%  
273 2% 17%  
274 3% 15%  
275 0.7% 12%  
276 3% 11%  
277 2% 8%  
278 0.7% 6%  
279 0.5% 6%  
280 1.3% 5%  
281 0.6% 4%  
282 0.3% 3%  
283 1.5% 3%  
284 0.4% 2%  
285 0.1% 1.2%  
286 0.3% 1.1%  
287 0.1% 0.8%  
288 0.1% 0.7%  
289 0.1% 0.6%  
290 0.2% 0.5%  
291 0.1% 0.3%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0.1% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.2% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.3% 99.6%  
154 0.2% 99.3%  
155 0.3% 99.0%  
156 0.5% 98.7%  
157 1.0% 98%  
158 0.6% 97%  
159 2% 97%  
160 1.3% 95%  
161 2% 94%  
162 0.9% 92%  
163 3% 91%  
164 1.4% 88%  
165 3% 86%  
166 3% 83%  
167 0.9% 81%  
168 3% 80%  
169 2% 77%  
170 2% 75%  
171 2% 73%  
172 7% 71%  
173 4% 64%  
174 12% 61%  
175 2% 49% Median
176 5% 47%  
177 6% 42%  
178 5% 36%  
179 2% 32%  
180 8% 30%  
181 2% 21%  
182 4% 19%  
183 2% 15%  
184 4% 13%  
185 2% 10%  
186 2% 8%  
187 0.5% 6%  
188 0.8% 6%  
189 0.9% 5%  
190 0.5% 4%  
191 1.3% 3%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.4% 2%  
194 0.2% 1.3%  
195 0.5% 1.1%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0.2% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.2% 99.5%  
154 0.3% 99.3%  
155 0.1% 99.0%  
156 0.3% 98.9%  
157 0.7% 98.6%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 0.9% 97%  
160 1.2% 96%  
161 1.0% 95%  
162 3% 94%  
163 0.8% 91%  
164 2% 90%  
165 4% 88%  
166 2% 84%  
167 6% 82%  
168 3% 76%  
169 6% 73%  
170 1.2% 67%  
171 2% 65%  
172 3% 63%  
173 7% 60%  
174 4% 53%  
175 4% 49% Median
176 2% 45%  
177 4% 43%  
178 2% 39%  
179 8% 36%  
180 9% 29%  
181 3% 20%  
182 3% 16%  
183 2% 14%  
184 3% 12%  
185 2% 9%  
186 0.5% 8%  
187 2% 7%  
188 1.4% 5%  
189 0.4% 4%  
190 1.1% 4%  
191 0.2% 2%  
192 0.9% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.4%  
194 0.2% 1.1%  
195 0.2% 0.9%  
196 0.2% 0.6%  
197 0.2% 0.5%  
198 0% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0.1% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations