Opinion Poll by YouGov, 27 September–1 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 20.0–24.1% 19.4–24.8%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.1% 19.8–22.5% 19.5–22.9% 19.2–23.2% 18.5–23.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.8–17.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 11.9–14.1% 11.6–14.4% 11.4–14.7% 10.9–15.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–9.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–9.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 168 159–177 156–180 153–183 148–189
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 162 152–172 149–175 147–177 143–182
Alternative für Deutschland 94 114 108–125 105–126 102–127 97–134
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 100 92–107 89–110 87–112 83–117
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 61 55–69 54–71 52–72 49–76
Die Linke 69 61 56–68 54–71 52–73 49–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 36–46 34–48 33–49 31–52

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 0.5% 99.5%  
150 0.2% 99.0%  
151 0.5% 98.8%  
152 0.5% 98%  
153 0.4% 98%  
154 1.0% 97%  
155 1.1% 96%  
156 0.5% 95%  
157 0.6% 95%  
158 3% 94%  
159 2% 91%  
160 2% 89%  
161 4% 86%  
162 2% 82%  
163 4% 80%  
164 8% 75%  
165 6% 67%  
166 2% 61%  
167 5% 59%  
168 10% 55% Median
169 2% 45%  
170 4% 43%  
171 4% 38%  
172 2% 35%  
173 6% 33%  
174 7% 27%  
175 3% 20%  
176 3% 17%  
177 5% 14%  
178 3% 10%  
179 2% 7%  
180 1.1% 5%  
181 0.9% 4%  
182 0.6% 3%  
183 0.5% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.2% 2%  
186 0.3% 1.5%  
187 0.3% 1.2%  
188 0.2% 0.9%  
189 0.3% 0.7%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.7%  
142 0.1% 99.6%  
143 0.5% 99.5%  
144 0.2% 99.0%  
145 0.3% 98.8%  
146 0.9% 98.6%  
147 0.6% 98%  
148 1.4% 97%  
149 0.9% 96%  
150 2% 95%  
151 1.4% 92%  
152 2% 91%  
153 4% 89%  
154 2% 84%  
155 6% 83%  
156 4% 77%  
157 2% 73%  
158 4% 70%  
159 7% 66%  
160 4% 59%  
161 2% 55%  
162 12% 53% Median
163 3% 41%  
164 2% 38%  
165 6% 37%  
166 4% 30%  
167 3% 26%  
168 4% 24%  
169 5% 20%  
170 1.0% 15%  
171 3% 14%  
172 2% 11%  
173 0.7% 9%  
174 3% 8%  
175 3% 6%  
176 0.2% 3%  
177 0.4% 3%  
178 0.8% 2%  
179 0.1% 2%  
180 0.7% 1.5%  
181 0.2% 0.8%  
182 0.2% 0.6%  
183 0.1% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.2%  
187 0.1% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0.4% 99.4%  
99 0.2% 99.0%  
100 0.5% 98.9%  
101 0.5% 98%  
102 0.5% 98%  
103 0.6% 97%  
104 1.3% 97%  
105 2% 96%  
106 0.6% 93%  
107 0.6% 93%  
108 6% 92%  
109 16% 87%  
110 5% 71%  
111 1.0% 65%  
112 1.4% 64%  
113 6% 63%  
114 9% 57% Median
115 3% 48%  
116 2% 44%  
117 3% 43%  
118 4% 40%  
119 1.4% 36%  
120 3% 35%  
121 9% 31%  
122 5% 22%  
123 3% 17%  
124 0.7% 14%  
125 5% 14%  
126 4% 8%  
127 2% 4%  
128 0.5% 2%  
129 0.5% 2%  
130 0.5% 1.4%  
131 0.2% 1.0%  
132 0.1% 0.8%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.3% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.6%  
84 0.3% 99.4%  
85 0.7% 99.1%  
86 0.8% 98%  
87 0.6% 98%  
88 1.1% 97%  
89 1.5% 96%  
90 2% 94%  
91 0.5% 92%  
92 2% 92%  
93 4% 90%  
94 4% 86%  
95 2% 82%  
96 7% 79%  
97 9% 72%  
98 4% 63%  
99 6% 59%  
100 10% 53% Median
101 10% 43%  
102 3% 33%  
103 8% 30%  
104 8% 23%  
105 2% 15%  
106 1.2% 13%  
107 4% 12%  
108 2% 8%  
109 0.6% 6%  
110 0.9% 6%  
111 2% 5%  
112 0.8% 3%  
113 0.3% 2%  
114 0.3% 2%  
115 0.7% 2%  
116 0.5% 1.1%  
117 0.1% 0.6%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 0.5% 99.3%  
51 0.7% 98.8%  
52 1.1% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 4% 95%  
55 2% 92%  
56 4% 89%  
57 5% 85%  
58 6% 80%  
59 11% 74%  
60 5% 63%  
61 8% 58% Median
62 6% 50%  
63 9% 43%  
64 8% 34%  
65 5% 27%  
66 4% 22%  
67 3% 18%  
68 4% 14%  
69 4% 10%  
70 1.4% 6%  
71 2% 5%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.2%  
75 0.2% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.6%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.9% 99.4%  
51 0.6% 98.5%  
52 1.2% 98%  
53 1.0% 97%  
54 3% 96%  
55 2% 93%  
56 6% 91%  
57 5% 85%  
58 4% 80%  
59 5% 76%  
60 8% 71%  
61 15% 63% Median
62 9% 47%  
63 9% 38%  
64 4% 29%  
65 3% 25%  
66 5% 21%  
67 4% 16%  
68 3% 12%  
69 2% 8% Last Result
70 1.1% 6%  
71 1.1% 5%  
72 0.9% 4%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.8%  
31 0.5% 99.7%  
32 0.5% 99.2%  
33 2% 98.8%  
34 3% 97%  
35 2% 94%  
36 9% 92%  
37 6% 83%  
38 8% 78%  
39 8% 70%  
40 9% 62%  
41 8% 53% Median
42 12% 45%  
43 6% 33%  
44 10% 27%  
45 3% 17%  
46 6% 14% Last Result
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 6%  
49 1.1% 3%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.3%  
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.1% 0.4%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 470 100% 459–482 456–485 454–487 448–492
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 432 100% 421–443 418–447 415–450 409–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 382 99.8% 368–389 367–394 362–399 356–402
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 370 97% 359–383 357–385 353–389 348–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 364 84% 352–375 349–379 345–382 340–388
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 330 0.4% 318–340 314–343 312–347 306–354
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 327 0.2% 320–341 315–342 310–347 307–353
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 318 0% 306–329 303–333 300–335 294–341
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 302 0% 291–314 288–318 285–319 279–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 266 0% 257–277 253–281 250–285 246–292
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 263 0% 251–276 248–277 247–279 244–289
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 162 0% 153–172 149–174 146–177 142–181
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 161 0% 152–171 149–174 146–176 141–181

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0% 99.9%  
445 0% 99.8%  
446 0.1% 99.8%  
447 0.1% 99.7%  
448 0.1% 99.6%  
449 0.1% 99.5%  
450 0.1% 99.3%  
451 0.2% 99.2%  
452 0.4% 99.0%  
453 0.5% 98.6%  
454 0.7% 98%  
455 2% 97%  
456 1.0% 96%  
457 1.1% 95%  
458 2% 94%  
459 4% 91%  
460 2% 88%  
461 3% 86%  
462 2% 82%  
463 4% 80%  
464 3% 76%  
465 4% 73%  
466 3% 69% Last Result
467 5% 66%  
468 5% 61%  
469 4% 57%  
470 4% 53%  
471 6% 48% Median
472 2% 42%  
473 2% 41%  
474 4% 38%  
475 3% 34%  
476 6% 31%  
477 2% 25%  
478 2% 22%  
479 3% 20%  
480 5% 17%  
481 1.2% 12%  
482 2% 11%  
483 2% 9%  
484 2% 7%  
485 1.3% 5%  
486 0.8% 4%  
487 0.7% 3%  
488 0.7% 2%  
489 0.5% 2%  
490 0.2% 1.3%  
491 0.4% 1.2%  
492 0.3% 0.8%  
493 0.1% 0.5%  
494 0.1% 0.4%  
495 0.1% 0.3%  
496 0% 0.2%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.8%  
408 0.2% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.6%  
410 0.1% 99.5%  
411 0.3% 99.4%  
412 0.3% 99.1%  
413 0.2% 98.7%  
414 0.6% 98.5%  
415 0.9% 98%  
416 0.5% 97%  
417 0.6% 97%  
418 2% 96%  
419 2% 94%  
420 0.8% 93%  
421 2% 92%  
422 3% 90%  
423 1.3% 87%  
424 2% 86%  
425 5% 84%  
426 2% 79%  
427 2% 77%  
428 7% 75%  
429 4% 69%  
430 3% 65%  
431 4% 61%  
432 9% 58% Median
433 3% 49%  
434 5% 46%  
435 5% 41%  
436 8% 37%  
437 2% 29%  
438 3% 27%  
439 6% 24%  
440 2% 17%  
441 2% 15%  
442 3% 13%  
443 2% 10%  
444 1.1% 9%  
445 2% 8%  
446 0.6% 6%  
447 0.6% 5%  
448 0.8% 5%  
449 0.9% 4%  
450 0.7% 3%  
451 0.2% 2%  
452 0.8% 2%  
453 0.4% 1.4%  
454 0.1% 1.0%  
455 0.3% 0.9%  
456 0.2% 0.6%  
457 0.2% 0.4%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0.1% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.6% 99.7%  
357 0.3% 99.1%  
358 0.4% 98.8%  
359 0.1% 98%  
360 0.2% 98%  
361 0.4% 98%  
362 0.9% 98%  
363 0.3% 97%  
364 0.3% 97%  
365 0.2% 96%  
366 0.9% 96%  
367 4% 95%  
368 3% 92%  
369 2% 88%  
370 1.3% 86%  
371 8% 85%  
372 5% 77%  
373 7% 72%  
374 3% 66%  
375 0.6% 62%  
376 0.9% 62%  
377 2% 61%  
378 3% 59% Median
379 2% 56%  
380 0.5% 53%  
381 2% 53%  
382 2% 51%  
383 9% 49%  
384 11% 40%  
385 6% 29%  
386 3% 23%  
387 4% 21%  
388 2% 17%  
389 5% 15%  
390 0.9% 9%  
391 0.7% 8%  
392 0.5% 8%  
393 1.4% 7%  
394 1.0% 6%  
395 1.0% 5%  
396 0.3% 4%  
397 0.2% 3%  
398 0.5% 3%  
399 1.1% 3%  
400 0.7% 2%  
401 0.4% 1.0%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.7%  
348 0.2% 99.6%  
349 0.5% 99.4%  
350 0.4% 98.9%  
351 0.3% 98%  
352 0.4% 98%  
353 0.5% 98%  
354 0.5% 97%  
355 0.6% 97% Majority
356 1.0% 96%  
357 3% 95%  
358 1.5% 92%  
359 2% 90%  
360 3% 88%  
361 0.9% 85%  
362 3% 84%  
363 2% 82%  
364 2% 80%  
365 6% 78%  
366 5% 72%  
367 4% 67%  
368 5% 63%  
369 5% 58%  
370 3% 53%  
371 2% 50% Median
372 2% 47%  
373 6% 45%  
374 4% 39%  
375 3% 35%  
376 5% 32%  
377 6% 27%  
378 2% 21%  
379 1.5% 19%  
380 2% 17%  
381 3% 15%  
382 1.0% 12%  
383 3% 11%  
384 1.1% 8%  
385 2% 7%  
386 0.7% 5%  
387 1.1% 4%  
388 0.6% 3%  
389 0.4% 3%  
390 0.2% 2%  
391 0.4% 2%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.6% 1.2%  
394 0.2% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0% 99.7%  
339 0.2% 99.7%  
340 0.5% 99.6%  
341 0.2% 99.1%  
342 0.2% 98.9%  
343 0.2% 98.6%  
344 0.3% 98%  
345 1.0% 98%  
346 0.7% 97%  
347 0.7% 96%  
348 0.6% 96%  
349 1.0% 95%  
350 2% 94%  
351 2% 92%  
352 1.3% 90%  
353 1.3% 89%  
354 4% 88%  
355 3% 84% Majority
356 3% 81%  
357 4% 78%  
358 2% 75%  
359 6% 73%  
360 6% 67%  
361 6% 61%  
362 2% 56%  
363 1.4% 53%  
364 6% 52% Median
365 6% 46%  
366 3% 40%  
367 2% 37%  
368 4% 35%  
369 4% 31%  
370 3% 27%  
371 2% 23%  
372 2% 21%  
373 3% 19%  
374 3% 16%  
375 3% 13%  
376 1.0% 10%  
377 0.6% 9%  
378 2% 8%  
379 2% 6%  
380 1.0% 4%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.4% 3%  
383 1.0% 2%  
384 0.3% 1.4%  
385 0.2% 1.1%  
386 0.1% 0.9%  
387 0.2% 0.8%  
388 0.2% 0.6%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.3% 99.6%  
307 0.3% 99.3%  
308 0.4% 99.0%  
309 0.3% 98.6%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.3% 98%  
312 0.6% 98%  
313 0.6% 97%  
314 2% 96%  
315 0.9% 94%  
316 1.0% 94%  
317 0.9% 93%  
318 3% 92%  
319 0.9% 89%  
320 2% 88%  
321 2% 86%  
322 3% 84%  
323 7% 81%  
324 2% 74%  
325 4% 71%  
326 1.2% 67%  
327 3% 66%  
328 9% 63%  
329 3% 54% Median
330 8% 51%  
331 3% 44%  
332 3% 41%  
333 4% 37%  
334 2% 33%  
335 4% 32%  
336 6% 28%  
337 6% 22%  
338 2% 15%  
339 0.6% 13%  
340 3% 12%  
341 1.4% 9%  
342 2% 8%  
343 0.7% 6%  
344 0.8% 5%  
345 1.0% 4%  
346 0.4% 3%  
347 0.5% 3%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.3% 1.4%  
351 0.3% 1.1%  
352 0.2% 0.9%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.4% Majority
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.1% 99.6%  
308 0.4% 99.4%  
309 0.7% 99.0%  
310 1.1% 98%  
311 0.5% 97%  
312 0.2% 97%  
313 0.3% 97%  
314 1.0% 96%  
315 1.0% 95%  
316 1.4% 94%  
317 0.5% 93%  
318 0.7% 92%  
319 0.9% 92%  
320 5% 91%  
321 2% 85%  
322 4% 83%  
323 3% 79%  
324 6% 77%  
325 11% 71%  
326 9% 60%  
327 2% 51%  
328 2% 49%  
329 0.5% 47% Median
330 2% 47%  
331 3% 44%  
332 2% 41%  
333 0.9% 39%  
334 0.6% 38%  
335 3% 38%  
336 7% 34%  
337 5% 28%  
338 8% 23%  
339 1.3% 15%  
340 2% 14%  
341 3% 12%  
342 4% 8%  
343 0.9% 5%  
344 0.2% 4%  
345 0.3% 4%  
346 0.3% 3%  
347 0.9% 3%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0.1% 2%  
351 0.4% 2%  
352 0.3% 1.2%  
353 0.6% 0.9%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.3% 99.3%  
297 0.1% 99.0%  
298 0.6% 98.9%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.9% 98%  
301 0.4% 97%  
302 2% 97%  
303 1.2% 95%  
304 0.9% 94%  
305 2% 93%  
306 3% 91%  
307 2% 89%  
308 4% 87%  
309 4% 83%  
310 1.0% 79%  
311 4% 78%  
312 4% 74%  
313 4% 70%  
314 4% 66%  
315 3% 62%  
316 3% 59%  
317 4% 56% Median
318 3% 53%  
319 2% 49%  
320 7% 47%  
321 4% 41%  
322 7% 37%  
323 2% 30%  
324 4% 28%  
325 0.6% 24%  
326 7% 24%  
327 4% 16%  
328 2% 13%  
329 1.4% 11%  
330 1.4% 10%  
331 2% 8%  
332 1.1% 7%  
333 2% 5%  
334 0.7% 4%  
335 0.8% 3%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.5% 2%  
338 0.1% 2%  
339 0.6% 2%  
340 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
341 0.2% 0.6%  
342 0% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.3% 99.6%  
280 0.2% 99.3%  
281 0.4% 99.1%  
282 0.3% 98.8%  
283 0.7% 98%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 2% 97%  
287 0.4% 95%  
288 3% 95%  
289 0.7% 92%  
290 0.7% 92%  
291 4% 91%  
292 2% 87%  
293 3% 85%  
294 2% 82%  
295 6% 80%  
296 1.0% 73%  
297 2% 72%  
298 4% 71%  
299 7% 67%  
300 6% 60%  
301 1.4% 54%  
302 5% 53%  
303 5% 47% Median
304 2% 43%  
305 2% 41%  
306 9% 38%  
307 4% 30%  
308 1.1% 26%  
309 2% 25%  
310 3% 22%  
311 7% 20%  
312 2% 13%  
313 0.6% 11%  
314 1.2% 10%  
315 1.3% 9%  
316 2% 8%  
317 0.7% 6%  
318 3% 6%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.7% 1.5%  
324 0.2% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.6%  
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.2% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0.3% 99.6%  
247 0.5% 99.3%  
248 0.6% 98.9%  
249 0.6% 98%  
250 0.9% 98%  
251 0.7% 97%  
252 0.7% 96%  
253 0.5% 95%  
254 0.9% 95%  
255 1.1% 94%  
256 1.0% 93%  
257 2% 92%  
258 1.1% 89%  
259 3% 88%  
260 2% 85%  
261 4% 84%  
262 6% 80%  
263 3% 74%  
264 6% 71%  
265 9% 65%  
266 7% 55%  
267 2% 49%  
268 3% 47% Median
269 2% 43%  
270 2% 42%  
271 2% 40%  
272 3% 38%  
273 6% 36%  
274 4% 29%  
275 3% 26%  
276 7% 22%  
277 7% 15%  
278 2% 8%  
279 0.9% 7%  
280 0.5% 6%  
281 0.5% 5%  
282 0.7% 5%  
283 0.7% 4%  
284 0.6% 3%  
285 0.3% 3%  
286 0.4% 2%  
287 0.4% 2%  
288 0.4% 2%  
289 0.3% 1.2%  
290 0.2% 0.9%  
291 0.2% 0.8%  
292 0.3% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.5% 99.5%  
245 0.5% 99.1%  
246 1.0% 98.6%  
247 0.8% 98%  
248 2% 97%  
249 0.9% 94%  
250 1.1% 93%  
251 2% 92%  
252 0.5% 90%  
253 0.2% 89%  
254 0.2% 89%  
255 0.2% 89%  
256 2% 89%  
257 2% 87%  
258 2% 85%  
259 7% 82%  
260 8% 75%  
261 6% 67%  
262 9% 60%  
263 9% 51%  
264 5% 42% Median
265 3% 37%  
266 3% 34%  
267 0.8% 32%  
268 0.4% 31%  
269 0.6% 30%  
270 1.0% 30%  
271 3% 29%  
272 2% 26%  
273 2% 25%  
274 8% 23%  
275 4% 15%  
276 2% 11%  
277 4% 8%  
278 1.3% 5%  
279 1.1% 3%  
280 0.3% 2%  
281 0.4% 2%  
282 0.1% 1.5%  
283 0.1% 1.4%  
284 0.1% 1.3%  
285 0.1% 1.2%  
286 0.2% 1.1%  
287 0.1% 0.9%  
288 0.2% 0.8%  
289 0.2% 0.6%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0.1% 0.2%  
292 0.1% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.7%  
142 0.3% 99.6%  
143 0.1% 99.3%  
144 0.7% 99.3%  
145 0.4% 98.6%  
146 0.8% 98%  
147 2% 97%  
148 0.7% 96%  
149 1.5% 95%  
150 0.5% 94%  
151 2% 93%  
152 1.2% 91%  
153 7% 90%  
154 1.1% 83%  
155 10% 82%  
156 2% 72%  
157 5% 70%  
158 2% 65%  
159 3% 63%  
160 3% 60%  
161 1.3% 57% Median
162 11% 56%  
163 7% 45%  
164 9% 38%  
165 2% 29%  
166 6% 27%  
167 2% 21%  
168 2% 19%  
169 0.7% 17%  
170 4% 16%  
171 1.2% 12%  
172 3% 11%  
173 2% 8%  
174 1.1% 5%  
175 2% 4%  
176 0.2% 3%  
177 0.7% 3%  
178 0.2% 2%  
179 0.3% 2%  
180 0.2% 1.3%  
181 0.6% 1.1%  
182 0.1% 0.5%  
183 0.2% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.2%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0.1% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.3% 99.7%  
142 0.3% 99.4%  
143 0.4% 99.1%  
144 0.5% 98.7%  
145 0.4% 98%  
146 0.8% 98%  
147 0.9% 97%  
148 0.8% 96%  
149 0.8% 95%  
150 1.4% 95%  
151 1.2% 93%  
152 2% 92%  
153 4% 90%  
154 2% 86%  
155 3% 84%  
156 3% 81%  
157 8% 78%  
158 5% 70%  
159 5% 65%  
160 5% 59%  
161 7% 54% Median
162 3% 47%  
163 7% 44%  
164 8% 37%  
165 3% 29%  
166 3% 26%  
167 5% 23%  
168 5% 18%  
169 2% 13%  
170 1.2% 11%  
171 2% 10%  
172 1.3% 8%  
173 2% 7%  
174 2% 5%  
175 0.5% 4%  
176 0.7% 3%  
177 0.4% 2%  
178 0.8% 2%  
179 0.3% 1.2%  
180 0.3% 0.9%  
181 0.1% 0.6%  
182 0.1% 0.5%  
183 0.1% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

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