Opinion Poll by Forsa, 30 September–4 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.0% 21.2–24.4% 21.0–24.7% 20.4–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.2–23.9% 19.7–24.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.4% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–5.9% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 174 165–184 164–188 162–190 156–193
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 169 160–180 157–181 155–183 151–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 108 100–116 99–119 97–122 93–124
Alternative für Deutschland 94 101 92–108 90–111 89–112 85–116
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 62 55–68 54–71 52–72 50–75
Die Linke 69 54 48–61 47–62 46–64 44–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 35–46 35–46 32–49 31–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.8%  
156 0.3% 99.7%  
157 0.2% 99.3%  
158 0.2% 99.1%  
159 0.1% 98.9%  
160 0.1% 98.8%  
161 0.5% 98.7%  
162 0.9% 98%  
163 2% 97%  
164 4% 95%  
165 2% 92%  
166 5% 90%  
167 3% 85%  
168 0.7% 82%  
169 1.2% 81%  
170 2% 80%  
171 4% 78%  
172 11% 73%  
173 4% 62%  
174 14% 59% Median
175 5% 45%  
176 4% 41%  
177 2% 37%  
178 1.4% 35%  
179 5% 34%  
180 3% 29%  
181 6% 26%  
182 3% 19%  
183 3% 16%  
184 5% 12%  
185 1.3% 7%  
186 0.6% 6%  
187 0.2% 5%  
188 0.5% 5%  
189 1.2% 5%  
190 1.2% 3%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.7% 2%  
193 0.6% 1.1%  
194 0.2% 0.5%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.6%  
152 0.4% 99.5%  
153 0.3% 99.1%  
154 0.5% 98.8%  
155 1.0% 98%  
156 0.7% 97%  
157 2% 97%  
158 1.3% 95%  
159 1.3% 94%  
160 4% 92%  
161 1.4% 88%  
162 4% 87%  
163 3% 83%  
164 4% 80%  
165 5% 76%  
166 9% 72%  
167 1.3% 62%  
168 10% 61%  
169 4% 52% Median
170 3% 47%  
171 5% 44%  
172 4% 39%  
173 1.5% 35%  
174 12% 33%  
175 2% 21%  
176 3% 20%  
177 4% 17%  
178 0.8% 13%  
179 1.4% 12%  
180 5% 11%  
181 2% 6%  
182 0.6% 4%  
183 0.9% 3%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.7% 2%  
186 0.3% 1.3%  
187 0.5% 1.0%  
188 0.2% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0.2% 99.6%  
94 0.6% 99.5%  
95 0.3% 98.9%  
96 0.6% 98.6%  
97 1.2% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 3% 95%  
100 3% 93%  
101 3% 90%  
102 4% 87%  
103 6% 83%  
104 4% 76%  
105 4% 72%  
106 5% 69%  
107 10% 64%  
108 7% 54% Median
109 5% 47%  
110 10% 42%  
111 7% 32%  
112 5% 25%  
113 2% 20%  
114 4% 17%  
115 4% 14%  
116 2% 10%  
117 0.7% 8%  
118 2% 8%  
119 2% 6%  
120 0.6% 4%  
121 0.3% 3%  
122 2% 3%  
123 0.4% 1.0%  
124 0.3% 0.6%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.7%  
86 0.3% 99.2%  
87 0.3% 98.9%  
88 0.5% 98.7%  
89 1.4% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 3% 94%  
92 2% 92%  
93 3% 90%  
94 2% 87% Last Result
95 6% 85%  
96 9% 79%  
97 5% 70%  
98 4% 66%  
99 4% 61%  
100 7% 57%  
101 9% 51% Median
102 10% 42%  
103 4% 32%  
104 2% 28%  
105 2% 26%  
106 8% 23%  
107 5% 16%  
108 1.5% 11%  
109 2% 9%  
110 1.1% 7%  
111 2% 6%  
112 2% 4%  
113 1.3% 2%  
114 0.2% 1.1%  
115 0.2% 0.9%  
116 0.3% 0.8%  
117 0.2% 0.5%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.2%  
52 2% 98.8%  
53 0.9% 97%  
54 2% 96%  
55 6% 94%  
56 5% 89%  
57 8% 83%  
58 3% 75%  
59 7% 72%  
60 6% 64%  
61 5% 58%  
62 13% 53% Median
63 5% 39%  
64 11% 34%  
65 3% 23%  
66 4% 20%  
67 5% 16%  
68 3% 12%  
69 3% 9%  
70 1.0% 6%  
71 1.4% 5%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.9% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.0%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.7%  
44 0.6% 99.6%  
45 1.3% 98.9%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 96%  
48 2% 92%  
49 5% 90%  
50 5% 84%  
51 7% 79%  
52 10% 72%  
53 6% 63%  
54 11% 57% Median
55 9% 45%  
56 7% 36%  
57 8% 29%  
58 3% 21%  
59 5% 18%  
60 2% 13%  
61 4% 11%  
62 3% 7%  
63 0.7% 4%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.5% 1.4%  
66 0.5% 0.9%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 1.3% 99.8%  
32 2% 98.6%  
33 1.0% 97%  
34 0.7% 96%  
35 7% 95%  
36 4% 89%  
37 12% 85%  
38 4% 73%  
39 10% 69%  
40 5% 59%  
41 20% 54% Median
42 7% 34%  
43 4% 27%  
44 4% 23%  
45 8% 19%  
46 6% 11% Last Result
47 1.2% 5%  
48 0.5% 3%  
49 1.0% 3%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.9%  
52 0.3% 0.5%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 493 100% 483–503 480–506 478–509 473–512
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 446 100% 436–456 431–461 430–463 426–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 386 100% 374–396 372–399 369–402 363–407
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 385 100% 374–396 371–399 368–401 363–407
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 377 99.8% 366–389 364–392 362–394 356–398
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 340 2% 328–349 326–352 322–354 316–361
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 332 0.2% 320–343 317–345 315–347 311–353
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 323 0% 313–335 310–338 308–339 303–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 316 0% 306–327 302–331 300–333 294–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 277 0% 266–288 264–291 260–293 256–298
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 278 0% 266–288 264–291 261–292 257–298
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 169 0% 160–179 159–183 156–184 152–189
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 162 0% 153–171 151–175 149–176 145–180

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 99.9%  
468 0% 99.9%  
469 0% 99.9%  
470 0% 99.9%  
471 0.1% 99.8%  
472 0.2% 99.7%  
473 0.1% 99.5%  
474 0.2% 99.4%  
475 0.4% 99.1%  
476 0.3% 98.7%  
477 0.6% 98%  
478 0.7% 98%  
479 2% 97%  
480 0.6% 95%  
481 2% 95%  
482 0.9% 93%  
483 2% 92%  
484 4% 90%  
485 4% 86%  
486 2% 82%  
487 3% 80%  
488 3% 77%  
489 7% 74%  
490 7% 67%  
491 6% 61%  
492 3% 54% Median
493 7% 52%  
494 4% 45%  
495 3% 41%  
496 3% 38%  
497 5% 35%  
498 2% 29%  
499 8% 28%  
500 4% 20%  
501 4% 16%  
502 2% 13%  
503 2% 10%  
504 2% 8%  
505 1.0% 6%  
506 0.7% 6%  
507 1.0% 5%  
508 0.3% 4%  
509 2% 4%  
510 0.7% 2%  
511 0.3% 1.0%  
512 0.3% 0.7%  
513 0.2% 0.5%  
514 0.1% 0.3%  
515 0.1% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0.1% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.8%  
423 0% 99.8%  
424 0% 99.7%  
425 0% 99.7%  
426 0.5% 99.6%  
427 0.5% 99.2%  
428 0.2% 98.7%  
429 0.7% 98%  
430 1.3% 98%  
431 3% 96%  
432 0.4% 94%  
433 0.8% 93%  
434 1.0% 92%  
435 0.7% 91%  
436 0.9% 91%  
437 1.0% 90%  
438 2% 89%  
439 3% 87%  
440 6% 84%  
441 7% 78%  
442 5% 71%  
443 4% 66%  
444 4% 62%  
445 4% 58%  
446 6% 54% Median
447 2% 48%  
448 2% 46%  
449 7% 44%  
450 4% 37%  
451 7% 32%  
452 5% 26%  
453 4% 21%  
454 3% 17%  
455 3% 14%  
456 1.1% 11%  
457 0.6% 10%  
458 1.0% 9%  
459 2% 8%  
460 0.6% 6%  
461 2% 6%  
462 2% 4%  
463 0.6% 3%  
464 0.9% 2%  
465 0.2% 1.1%  
466 0.3% 0.8%  
467 0.2% 0.5%  
468 0% 0.3%  
469 0% 0.3%  
470 0.1% 0.2%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0.1% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.4% 99.7%  
364 0.3% 99.3%  
365 0.1% 99.0%  
366 0.1% 98.9%  
367 0.2% 98.8%  
368 0.6% 98.6%  
369 1.0% 98%  
370 1.1% 97%  
371 0.7% 96%  
372 3% 95%  
373 0.7% 92%  
374 4% 91%  
375 3% 87%  
376 4% 84%  
377 1.0% 79%  
378 2% 78%  
379 0.9% 76%  
380 5% 75%  
381 6% 70%  
382 3% 63%  
383 3% 60%  
384 3% 58%  
385 2% 54% Median
386 3% 52%  
387 12% 49%  
388 3% 37%  
389 2% 34%  
390 3% 32%  
391 4% 29%  
392 4% 24%  
393 6% 21%  
394 2% 15%  
395 0.7% 12%  
396 3% 12%  
397 1.1% 9%  
398 2% 8%  
399 2% 6%  
400 0.4% 4%  
401 1.1% 4%  
402 0.2% 3%  
403 0.6% 2%  
404 0.5% 2%  
405 0.3% 1.2%  
406 0.1% 0.8%  
407 0.4% 0.7%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0.3% 99.8%  
363 0.3% 99.5%  
364 0.2% 99.2%  
365 0.5% 99.0%  
366 0.3% 98.5%  
367 0.3% 98%  
368 0.6% 98%  
369 0.3% 97%  
370 1.0% 97%  
371 1.2% 96%  
372 2% 95%  
373 0.6% 93%  
374 2% 92%  
375 4% 90%  
376 2% 86%  
377 6% 84%  
378 2% 79%  
379 4% 76%  
380 1.2% 73%  
381 2% 72%  
382 2% 69%  
383 6% 68%  
384 7% 62% Median
385 10% 55%  
386 2% 45%  
387 6% 42%  
388 3% 36%  
389 12% 34%  
390 1.0% 22%  
391 3% 21%  
392 2% 18%  
393 0.9% 16%  
394 2% 15%  
395 2% 13%  
396 2% 11%  
397 3% 10%  
398 1.3% 7%  
399 1.1% 5%  
400 2% 4%  
401 1.1% 3%  
402 0.6% 2%  
403 0.3% 1.1%  
404 0.1% 0.8%  
405 0.1% 0.8%  
406 0% 0.6%  
407 0.3% 0.6%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0.1% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.2% 99.6%  
357 0.1% 99.4%  
358 0.2% 99.3%  
359 0.5% 99.2%  
360 0.5% 98.7%  
361 0.6% 98%  
362 0.2% 98%  
363 1.2% 97%  
364 2% 96%  
365 3% 94%  
366 2% 91%  
367 2% 90%  
368 2% 87%  
369 4% 85%  
370 2% 81%  
371 3% 79%  
372 6% 76%  
373 7% 70%  
374 4% 63%  
375 2% 59%  
376 3% 57%  
377 7% 53%  
378 4% 46% Median
379 2% 42%  
380 5% 41%  
381 5% 36%  
382 4% 31%  
383 2% 27%  
384 4% 25%  
385 3% 21%  
386 5% 18%  
387 2% 14%  
388 0.8% 11%  
389 2% 11%  
390 2% 9%  
391 1.4% 7%  
392 0.5% 5%  
393 1.3% 5%  
394 1.5% 3%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.3% 1.5%  
397 0.3% 1.2%  
398 0.3% 0.8%  
399 0.1% 0.5%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0.1% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.7%  
316 0.2% 99.7%  
317 0.3% 99.5%  
318 0.1% 99.2%  
319 0.1% 99.0%  
320 0.3% 99.0%  
321 0.3% 98.7%  
322 1.0% 98%  
323 0.5% 97%  
324 0.3% 97%  
325 1.1% 97%  
326 2% 95%  
327 3% 94%  
328 2% 90%  
329 0.8% 89%  
330 3% 88%  
331 6% 85%  
332 6% 80%  
333 3% 74%  
334 2% 71%  
335 4% 69%  
336 3% 65%  
337 6% 62%  
338 2% 55%  
339 3% 54% Median
340 5% 50%  
341 4% 45%  
342 6% 41%  
343 2% 35%  
344 3% 33%  
345 5% 31%  
346 8% 26%  
347 2% 18%  
348 3% 15%  
349 3% 13%  
350 3% 10%  
351 2% 7%  
352 0.9% 5%  
353 1.4% 4%  
354 0.8% 3%  
355 0.2% 2% Majority
356 0.6% 2%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.3% 1.3%  
359 0.2% 1.0%  
360 0.3% 0.8%  
361 0% 0.5%  
362 0.2% 0.5%  
363 0.2% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.3% 99.5%  
312 0.3% 99.2%  
313 0.3% 98.8%  
314 0.5% 98.5%  
315 1.5% 98%  
316 1.3% 97%  
317 0.5% 95%  
318 1.4% 95%  
319 2% 93%  
320 2% 91%  
321 0.8% 89%  
322 2% 89%  
323 5% 86%  
324 3% 82%  
325 4% 79%  
326 2% 75%  
327 4% 73%  
328 5% 69%  
329 5% 64%  
330 2% 59%  
331 4% 58% Median
332 7% 54%  
333 3% 47%  
334 2% 43%  
335 4% 41%  
336 7% 37%  
337 6% 30%  
338 3% 24%  
339 2% 21%  
340 4% 19%  
341 2% 15%  
342 2% 13%  
343 2% 10%  
344 3% 9%  
345 2% 6%  
346 1.2% 4%  
347 0.2% 3%  
348 0.6% 2%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.5% 1.3%  
351 0.2% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.2% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.2% 99.7%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.5%  
304 0.3% 99.3%  
305 0.3% 99.0%  
306 0.3% 98.7%  
307 0.7% 98%  
308 0.2% 98%  
309 2% 97%  
310 3% 95%  
311 0.1% 92%  
312 0.9% 92%  
313 6% 91%  
314 0.5% 85%  
315 1.4% 84%  
316 7% 83%  
317 0.8% 76%  
318 1.2% 75%  
319 10% 74%  
320 2% 65%  
321 2% 63%  
322 4% 61%  
323 9% 57% Median
324 3% 48%  
325 8% 45%  
326 3% 38%  
327 1.2% 35%  
328 4% 33%  
329 6% 30%  
330 0.4% 24%  
331 5% 24%  
332 3% 19%  
333 0.5% 16%  
334 2% 15%  
335 6% 13%  
336 0.1% 7%  
337 2% 7%  
338 2% 5%  
339 0.5% 3%  
340 0.1% 2%  
341 1.1% 2%  
342 0.1% 1.1%  
343 0.3% 1.0%  
344 0.3% 0.8%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0% 0.4%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0.1% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.3% 99.7%  
295 0.3% 99.4%  
296 0% 99.1%  
297 0.4% 99.1%  
298 0.2% 98.7%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.7% 98%  
301 0.8% 97%  
302 2% 97%  
303 2% 94%  
304 0.7% 92%  
305 1.0% 91%  
306 4% 90%  
307 5% 86%  
308 3% 81%  
309 2% 78%  
310 3% 76%  
311 6% 73%  
312 2% 67%  
313 8% 65%  
314 2% 57%  
315 3% 54%  
316 5% 52% Median
317 6% 47%  
318 3% 41%  
319 6% 38%  
320 3% 32%  
321 2% 30%  
322 6% 27%  
323 4% 21%  
324 1.0% 18%  
325 5% 17%  
326 0.9% 12%  
327 3% 11%  
328 2% 9%  
329 0.9% 6%  
330 0.4% 5%  
331 0.7% 5%  
332 1.1% 4%  
333 1.2% 3%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0.3% 1.4%  
336 0.3% 1.1%  
337 0.1% 0.8%  
338 0.2% 0.7%  
339 0.3% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.2% 99.7%  
257 0.4% 99.5%  
258 0.3% 99.0%  
259 0.4% 98.7%  
260 0.9% 98%  
261 0.3% 97%  
262 0.5% 97%  
263 0.9% 97%  
264 1.3% 96%  
265 2% 94%  
266 5% 93%  
267 2% 88%  
268 3% 86%  
269 5% 83%  
270 3% 78%  
271 3% 75%  
272 1.4% 72%  
273 4% 71%  
274 6% 67%  
275 7% 61%  
276 2% 55%  
277 7% 53% Median
278 4% 46%  
279 2% 41%  
280 6% 40%  
281 4% 34%  
282 3% 29%  
283 4% 26%  
284 3% 22%  
285 4% 19%  
286 2% 15%  
287 1.3% 12%  
288 2% 11%  
289 2% 9%  
290 2% 8%  
291 2% 6%  
292 1.3% 4%  
293 0.9% 3%  
294 0.4% 2%  
295 0.4% 2%  
296 0.3% 1.3%  
297 0.1% 1.0%  
298 0.4% 0.8%  
299 0.1% 0.4%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0.1% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.2% 99.7%  
257 0.5% 99.5%  
258 0.4% 99.1%  
259 0.4% 98.7%  
260 0.3% 98%  
261 0.6% 98%  
262 1.0% 97%  
263 0.6% 96%  
264 2% 96%  
265 2% 94%  
266 3% 93%  
267 2% 90%  
268 3% 88%  
269 2% 85%  
270 2% 83%  
271 3% 81%  
272 5% 78%  
273 3% 72%  
274 2% 70%  
275 5% 67%  
276 8% 62%  
277 3% 54% Median
278 7% 51%  
279 4% 44%  
280 2% 41%  
281 3% 38%  
282 4% 35%  
283 6% 30%  
284 7% 25%  
285 3% 18%  
286 3% 16%  
287 1.0% 12%  
288 3% 11%  
289 1.0% 8%  
290 2% 7%  
291 3% 6%  
292 0.6% 3%  
293 0.5% 2%  
294 0.5% 2%  
295 0.1% 1.5%  
296 0.6% 1.3%  
297 0.2% 0.8%  
298 0.1% 0.6%  
299 0.1% 0.4%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.6%  
153 0.2% 99.3%  
154 0.3% 99.2%  
155 0.5% 98.9%  
156 1.2% 98%  
157 0.5% 97%  
158 1.4% 97%  
159 2% 95%  
160 4% 93%  
161 2% 89%  
162 3% 88%  
163 6% 85%  
164 4% 79%  
165 5% 75%  
166 2% 69%  
167 6% 68%  
168 8% 62%  
169 4% 54%  
170 6% 50% Median
171 3% 44%  
172 9% 41%  
173 3% 32%  
174 4% 29%  
175 4% 25%  
176 6% 21%  
177 1.4% 15%  
178 3% 13%  
179 2% 11%  
180 1.3% 9%  
181 0.9% 7%  
182 1.1% 6%  
183 3% 5%  
184 0.6% 3%  
185 0.2% 2%  
186 0.9% 2%  
187 0.2% 1.1%  
188 0.2% 0.8%  
189 0.1% 0.6%  
190 0.3% 0.5%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.5%  
146 0.2% 99.4%  
147 0.6% 99.2%  
148 0.7% 98.5%  
149 0.6% 98%  
150 2% 97%  
151 2% 95%  
152 2% 93%  
153 4% 91%  
154 2% 87%  
155 4% 85%  
156 3% 81%  
157 2% 78%  
158 4% 75%  
159 2% 72%  
160 6% 70%  
161 5% 64%  
162 8% 58% Median
163 11% 50%  
164 4% 39%  
165 3% 35%  
166 7% 32%  
167 3% 25%  
168 4% 21%  
169 4% 18%  
170 2% 14%  
171 3% 12%  
172 0.5% 10%  
173 2% 9%  
174 2% 7%  
175 0.6% 5%  
176 2% 5%  
177 0.8% 2%  
178 0.4% 2%  
179 0.2% 1.1%  
180 0.5% 0.9%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations