Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 4–7 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.2–23.8% 19.7–24.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.5% 7.8–9.3% 7.5–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 165 157–174 154–176 152–178 147–182
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 156 149–166 147–168 144–170 140–175
Alternative für Deutschland 94 120 113–127 110–129 109–132 105–135
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 98 91–104 89–107 87–108 84–113
Die Linke 69 68 62–73 61–76 59–77 56–80
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 63 58–69 56–71 55–73 53–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 33–42 32–44 31–45 29–48

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0.3% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.5%  
149 0.2% 99.4%  
150 0.3% 99.2%  
151 0.8% 98.9%  
152 0.9% 98%  
153 0.8% 97%  
154 2% 96%  
155 0.7% 95%  
156 1.0% 94%  
157 5% 93%  
158 3% 88%  
159 3% 85%  
160 2% 82%  
161 6% 80%  
162 4% 74%  
163 3% 71%  
164 7% 68%  
165 12% 61% Median
166 3% 50%  
167 6% 47%  
168 6% 41%  
169 2% 35%  
170 3% 32%  
171 5% 29%  
172 10% 24%  
173 1.1% 14%  
174 7% 13%  
175 2% 7%  
176 1.1% 5%  
177 1.0% 4%  
178 1.0% 3%  
179 0.3% 2%  
180 0.4% 2%  
181 0.4% 2%  
182 0.8% 1.1%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.2% 99.8%  
140 0.3% 99.6%  
141 0.2% 99.4%  
142 0.1% 99.2%  
143 0.8% 99.1%  
144 0.8% 98%  
145 0.7% 97%  
146 1.3% 97%  
147 2% 95%  
148 2% 93%  
149 2% 91%  
150 1.1% 89%  
151 10% 88%  
152 2% 78%  
153 16% 76%  
154 3% 60%  
155 5% 57%  
156 3% 52% Median
157 6% 49%  
158 7% 42%  
159 3% 36%  
160 10% 33%  
161 4% 23%  
162 2% 19%  
163 3% 18%  
164 2% 15%  
165 2% 12%  
166 3% 10%  
167 1.0% 7%  
168 3% 6%  
169 0.5% 3%  
170 0.4% 3%  
171 0.7% 2%  
172 0.4% 2%  
173 0.4% 1.1%  
174 0.2% 0.8%  
175 0.2% 0.5%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.6%  
106 0.3% 99.4%  
107 0.6% 99.1%  
108 0.8% 98.6%  
109 1.3% 98%  
110 2% 96%  
111 2% 95%  
112 2% 93%  
113 4% 91%  
114 4% 86%  
115 3% 82%  
116 3% 80%  
117 13% 77%  
118 2% 64%  
119 11% 61%  
120 7% 50% Median
121 13% 43%  
122 4% 30%  
123 5% 26%  
124 2% 21%  
125 4% 19%  
126 3% 15%  
127 3% 12%  
128 3% 9%  
129 1.2% 6%  
130 1.1% 5%  
131 0.5% 4%  
132 1.1% 3%  
133 0.5% 2%  
134 0.6% 1.4%  
135 0.4% 0.9%  
136 0.1% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0.2% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.4%  
86 0.5% 99.0%  
87 1.0% 98.5%  
88 2% 97%  
89 2% 96%  
90 2% 94%  
91 5% 91%  
92 5% 86%  
93 2% 82%  
94 9% 80%  
95 5% 70%  
96 3% 65%  
97 12% 62%  
98 5% 50% Median
99 10% 45%  
100 5% 35%  
101 5% 30%  
102 10% 25%  
103 2% 15%  
104 4% 13%  
105 1.4% 9%  
106 3% 8%  
107 1.1% 5%  
108 2% 4%  
109 1.0% 2%  
110 0.2% 1.2%  
111 0.2% 1.0%  
112 0.1% 0.8%  
113 0.4% 0.7%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 0.4% 99.3%  
58 0.9% 98.9%  
59 2% 98%  
60 1.3% 96%  
61 3% 95%  
62 5% 92%  
63 2% 87%  
64 4% 86%  
65 6% 82%  
66 4% 76%  
67 13% 72%  
68 10% 59% Median
69 4% 49% Last Result
70 16% 45%  
71 7% 28%  
72 3% 21%  
73 8% 18%  
74 2% 10%  
75 2% 7%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.5% 3%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.6%  
54 1.4% 99.2%  
55 2% 98%  
56 1.0% 96%  
57 4% 95%  
58 4% 91%  
59 6% 87%  
60 11% 81%  
61 4% 70%  
62 9% 66%  
63 12% 57% Median
64 6% 45%  
65 8% 38%  
66 4% 30%  
67 10% 26%  
68 3% 16%  
69 3% 13%  
70 4% 10%  
71 2% 6%  
72 1.0% 4%  
73 0.8% 3%  
74 0.8% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.1%  
76 0.2% 0.7%  
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.9% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.6%  
32 2% 96%  
33 7% 94%  
34 5% 88%  
35 7% 82%  
36 13% 75%  
37 5% 62%  
38 28% 57% Median
39 4% 29%  
40 7% 25%  
41 6% 18%  
42 4% 12%  
43 4% 9%  
44 2% 5%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.3% 1.5% Last Result
47 0.5% 1.2%  
48 0.3% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 458 100% 447–466 445–469 443–473 437–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 424 100% 415–433 412–437 409–439 403–444
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 387 100% 376–396 374–399 371–402 365–407
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 365 91% 355–373 352–377 348–379 342–385
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 361 81% 350–369 347–372 344–375 339–379
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 324 0% 312–332 310–336 307–339 302–344
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 322 0% 313–333 310–335 307–338 302–344
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 316 0% 309–329 305–331 302–333 299–340
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 302 0% 290–309 289–313 285–315 281–322
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 267 0% 258–275 253–279 252–282 247–286
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 254 0% 245–264 243–267 239–269 234–275
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 158–174 155–177 153–179 147–183
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 162 0% 152–169 150–172 148–173 144–179

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 99.9%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0.1% 99.8%  
436 0% 99.8%  
437 0.2% 99.7%  
438 0.3% 99.5%  
439 0.1% 99.2%  
440 0.4% 99.1%  
441 0.2% 98.7%  
442 1.0% 98.6%  
443 1.0% 98%  
444 0.5% 97%  
445 1.4% 96%  
446 1.2% 95%  
447 4% 93%  
448 0.8% 90%  
449 2% 89%  
450 6% 87%  
451 2% 82%  
452 5% 80%  
453 2% 75%  
454 5% 73%  
455 4% 68%  
456 2% 64%  
457 3% 62% Median
458 10% 59%  
459 2% 49%  
460 12% 47%  
461 4% 35%  
462 10% 32%  
463 5% 22%  
464 3% 17%  
465 3% 14%  
466 2% 11% Last Result
467 3% 9%  
468 2% 7%  
469 0.7% 5%  
470 0.8% 4%  
471 0.7% 4%  
472 0.3% 3%  
473 0.8% 3%  
474 0.4% 2%  
475 0.3% 1.4%  
476 0.5% 1.1%  
477 0.1% 0.7%  
478 0.3% 0.6%  
479 0.1% 0.3%  
480 0% 0.2%  
481 0.1% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.8%  
403 0.3% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.5%  
405 0.6% 99.4%  
406 0.3% 98.8%  
407 0.5% 98%  
408 0.3% 98%  
409 1.2% 98%  
410 0.3% 97%  
411 0.6% 96%  
412 2% 96%  
413 0.6% 93%  
414 2% 93%  
415 3% 91%  
416 9% 89%  
417 1.2% 80%  
418 5% 78%  
419 4% 73%  
420 3% 69%  
421 3% 66%  
422 4% 62% Median
423 6% 58%  
424 9% 52%  
425 8% 43%  
426 4% 36%  
427 9% 32%  
428 2% 23%  
429 2% 21%  
430 5% 19%  
431 2% 14%  
432 3% 13%  
433 2% 10%  
434 2% 8%  
435 0.5% 6%  
436 0.8% 6%  
437 1.1% 5%  
438 1.1% 4%  
439 1.0% 3%  
440 0.7% 2%  
441 0.3% 1.2%  
442 0.2% 0.9%  
443 0.1% 0.7%  
444 0.3% 0.6%  
445 0.1% 0.3%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.4% 99.7%  
366 0.1% 99.4%  
367 0.3% 99.2%  
368 0.1% 98.9%  
369 0.5% 98.8%  
370 0.7% 98%  
371 0.2% 98%  
372 1.1% 97%  
373 0.9% 96%  
374 1.4% 95%  
375 3% 94%  
376 1.3% 91%  
377 2% 90%  
378 2% 88%  
379 6% 86%  
380 1.4% 80%  
381 2% 79%  
382 5% 76%  
383 3% 71%  
384 10% 69%  
385 4% 59%  
386 5% 55% Median
387 6% 50%  
388 3% 44%  
389 5% 42%  
390 3% 37%  
391 7% 34%  
392 10% 26%  
393 3% 17%  
394 2% 14%  
395 1.5% 13%  
396 3% 11%  
397 1.3% 9%  
398 0.8% 7%  
399 2% 7%  
400 0.7% 5%  
401 0.3% 4%  
402 2% 4%  
403 0.3% 2%  
404 0.3% 2%  
405 0.4% 1.2%  
406 0.3% 0.9%  
407 0.1% 0.6%  
408 0.1% 0.5%  
409 0.2% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0.4% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.5%  
343 0.1% 99.5%  
344 0.2% 99.4%  
345 0.1% 99.2%  
346 0.1% 99.0%  
347 1.4% 98.9%  
348 0.2% 98%  
349 0.6% 97%  
350 0.5% 97%  
351 1.2% 96%  
352 1.2% 95%  
353 2% 94%  
354 1.0% 92%  
355 5% 91% Majority
356 0.7% 86%  
357 2% 85%  
358 5% 83%  
359 3% 78%  
360 8% 75%  
361 7% 67%  
362 2% 60%  
363 1.3% 58%  
364 3% 57% Median
365 11% 54%  
366 1.3% 43%  
367 5% 42%  
368 5% 37%  
369 2% 32%  
370 2% 30%  
371 8% 29%  
372 10% 21%  
373 3% 12%  
374 1.4% 9%  
375 0.7% 7%  
376 0.8% 7%  
377 1.4% 6%  
378 0.4% 4%  
379 2% 4%  
380 0.7% 2%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.3% 1.4%  
383 0.2% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 0.9%  
385 0.5% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.2% 99.8%  
339 0.2% 99.6%  
340 0.2% 99.4%  
341 0.2% 99.2%  
342 0.1% 99.0%  
343 1.2% 98.9%  
344 0.5% 98%  
345 0.8% 97%  
346 0.9% 96%  
347 0.8% 96%  
348 1.0% 95%  
349 2% 94%  
350 2% 92%  
351 0.9% 90%  
352 2% 89%  
353 5% 87%  
354 0.9% 82%  
355 4% 81% Majority
356 11% 77%  
357 3% 66%  
358 6% 64%  
359 2% 57% Median
360 3% 55%  
361 12% 52%  
362 4% 40%  
363 6% 37%  
364 2% 30%  
365 7% 28%  
366 4% 21%  
367 4% 17%  
368 2% 13%  
369 2% 11%  
370 2% 10%  
371 2% 8%  
372 1.4% 5%  
373 0.9% 4%  
374 0.5% 3%  
375 0.4% 3%  
376 0.6% 2%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.2% 1.2%  
379 0.5% 1.0%  
380 0.1% 0.5%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0.2% 99.7%  
303 0.4% 99.5%  
304 0.3% 99.1%  
305 0.2% 98.8%  
306 0.5% 98.6%  
307 0.8% 98%  
308 0.6% 97%  
309 0.6% 97%  
310 1.3% 96%  
311 0.9% 95%  
312 4% 94%  
313 0.7% 90%  
314 5% 89%  
315 1.0% 84%  
316 2% 83%  
317 2% 81%  
318 5% 79%  
319 4% 74%  
320 8% 70%  
321 4% 62%  
322 4% 58%  
323 2% 54% Median
324 10% 52%  
325 2% 42%  
326 5% 40%  
327 3% 35%  
328 2% 33%  
329 14% 31%  
330 1.4% 17%  
331 4% 15%  
332 2% 11%  
333 0.7% 9%  
334 1.3% 8%  
335 1.4% 7%  
336 1.1% 5%  
337 0.7% 4%  
338 1.0% 4%  
339 0.3% 3%  
340 0.2% 2% Last Result
341 1.1% 2%  
342 0.1% 0.9%  
343 0.2% 0.7%  
344 0.2% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.2% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.2% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.3% 99.4%  
304 0.4% 99.1%  
305 0.3% 98.8%  
306 0.3% 98%  
307 2% 98%  
308 0.3% 96%  
309 0.7% 96%  
310 2% 95%  
311 0.8% 93%  
312 1.3% 93%  
313 3% 91%  
314 1.5% 89%  
315 2% 87%  
316 3% 86%  
317 10% 83%  
318 7% 74%  
319 3% 66%  
320 5% 63%  
321 3% 58%  
322 6% 56% Median
323 5% 50%  
324 4% 45%  
325 10% 41%  
326 3% 31%  
327 5% 29%  
328 2% 24%  
329 1.4% 21%  
330 6% 20%  
331 2% 14%  
332 2% 12%  
333 1.3% 10%  
334 3% 9%  
335 1.4% 6%  
336 0.9% 5%  
337 1.1% 4%  
338 0.2% 3%  
339 0.7% 2%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0.1% 1.2%  
342 0.3% 1.1%  
343 0.1% 0.8%  
344 0.4% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.2% 99.7%  
300 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
301 0.1% 99.3%  
302 2% 99.2%  
303 0.3% 97%  
304 0.1% 97%  
305 4% 97%  
306 1.0% 93%  
307 0.2% 92%  
308 1.1% 91%  
309 4% 90%  
310 0.4% 87%  
311 0.3% 86%  
312 10% 86%  
313 12% 76%  
314 2% 64%  
315 11% 62%  
316 2% 51%  
317 0.6% 49% Median
318 2% 48%  
319 10% 47%  
320 3% 37%  
321 4% 34%  
322 9% 31%  
323 2% 22%  
324 1.2% 19%  
325 2% 18%  
326 3% 16%  
327 0.6% 13%  
328 2% 12%  
329 3% 11%  
330 2% 8%  
331 1.2% 5%  
332 1.0% 4%  
333 0.7% 3%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.1% 2%  
337 0.4% 1.5%  
338 0.5% 1.1%  
339 0% 0.6%  
340 0.3% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.2% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.6%  
281 0.4% 99.5%  
282 0.4% 99.2%  
283 0.2% 98.7%  
284 0.6% 98.6%  
285 0.7% 98%  
286 1.0% 97%  
287 0.4% 96%  
288 0.6% 96%  
289 1.4% 95%  
290 5% 94%  
291 0.8% 89%  
292 2% 88%  
293 6% 87%  
294 8% 81%  
295 2% 74%  
296 2% 72%  
297 4% 69%  
298 4% 65%  
299 1.4% 61%  
300 3% 59%  
301 5% 56% Median
302 4% 51%  
303 1.5% 47%  
304 0.8% 45%  
305 12% 44%  
306 5% 33%  
307 0.8% 28%  
308 2% 27%  
309 17% 25%  
310 1.2% 8%  
311 0.5% 7%  
312 1.3% 6%  
313 1.0% 5%  
314 1.4% 4%  
315 0.3% 3%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0.7% 2%  
318 0.4% 1.5%  
319 0% 1.1%  
320 0.1% 1.0%  
321 0.4% 0.9%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0.2% 0.4%  
325 0.2% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.2% 99.7%  
247 0.3% 99.5%  
248 0.3% 99.3%  
249 0.1% 99.0%  
250 0.3% 98.9%  
251 0.6% 98.6%  
252 1.3% 98%  
253 2% 97%  
254 1.1% 95%  
255 1.4% 94%  
256 0.9% 92%  
257 1.0% 91%  
258 5% 90%  
259 1.3% 85%  
260 2% 84%  
261 3% 82%  
262 5% 80%  
263 13% 75%  
264 3% 62%  
265 3% 59%  
266 4% 56% Median
267 6% 51%  
268 4% 46%  
269 5% 42%  
270 2% 37%  
271 2% 35%  
272 2% 32%  
273 12% 30%  
274 8% 19%  
275 2% 11%  
276 2% 9%  
277 1.4% 8%  
278 0.9% 6%  
279 1.0% 5%  
280 1.1% 4%  
281 0.5% 3%  
282 0.3% 3%  
283 1.0% 2%  
284 0.7% 1.5%  
285 0.3% 0.8%  
286 0.1% 0.6%  
287 0.1% 0.4%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.3% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.1% 99.4%  
237 0.6% 99.2%  
238 0.3% 98.7%  
239 0.9% 98%  
240 0.6% 97%  
241 1.4% 97%  
242 0.4% 95%  
243 1.1% 95%  
244 2% 94%  
245 2% 92%  
246 3% 90%  
247 4% 87%  
248 2% 84%  
249 1.3% 81%  
250 15% 80%  
251 2% 64%  
252 9% 62%  
253 2% 53%  
254 3% 51% Median
255 11% 48%  
256 3% 37%  
257 6% 34%  
258 2% 29%  
259 0.7% 27%  
260 5% 26%  
261 2% 21%  
262 3% 19%  
263 4% 16%  
264 4% 12%  
265 1.2% 8%  
266 1.1% 7%  
267 1.4% 5%  
268 1.0% 4%  
269 1.0% 3%  
270 0.4% 2%  
271 0.7% 2%  
272 0.1% 1.0%  
273 0.2% 0.9%  
274 0.1% 0.7%  
275 0.2% 0.5%  
276 0.1% 0.3%  
277 0.1% 0.2%  
278 0.1% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.3% 99.8%  
148 0.3% 99.5%  
149 0.2% 99.2%  
150 0.2% 99.0%  
151 0.4% 98.8%  
152 0.5% 98%  
153 1.4% 98%  
154 1.4% 97%  
155 0.8% 95%  
156 2% 94%  
157 1.2% 93%  
158 4% 91%  
159 3% 87%  
160 5% 85%  
161 2% 80%  
162 6% 78%  
163 2% 72%  
164 7% 70%  
165 10% 63%  
166 12% 52% Median
167 2% 40%  
168 5% 38%  
169 1.2% 33%  
170 7% 32%  
171 2% 25%  
172 10% 23%  
173 0.9% 13%  
174 2% 12%  
175 2% 10%  
176 2% 8%  
177 3% 6%  
178 0.3% 3%  
179 1.4% 3%  
180 0.1% 1.4%  
181 0.5% 1.3%  
182 0% 0.8%  
183 0.5% 0.8%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0.1% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0.2% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.6%  
145 0.1% 99.4%  
146 0.3% 99.3%  
147 1.0% 99.0%  
148 1.1% 98%  
149 0.4% 97%  
150 3% 97%  
151 1.5% 93%  
152 3% 92%  
153 1.3% 89%  
154 4% 87%  
155 3% 84%  
156 2% 81%  
157 2% 79%  
158 5% 77%  
159 11% 72%  
160 2% 61%  
161 7% 59% Median
162 21% 51%  
163 2% 30%  
164 3% 28%  
165 5% 25%  
166 3% 20%  
167 2% 17%  
168 3% 16%  
169 4% 13%  
170 2% 9%  
171 2% 8%  
172 1.1% 6%  
173 2% 5%  
174 0.3% 2%  
175 0.4% 2%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.5% 1.2%  
178 0.1% 0.7%  
179 0.2% 0.6%  
180 0.2% 0.4%  
181 0% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations