Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap for ARD, 7–9 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 24.0% 22.6–25.5% 22.2–25.9% 21.9–26.2% 21.3–26.9%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.7% 21.4–24.2% 21.0–24.6% 20.7–24.9% 20.1–25.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.6% 12.4–15.9% 11.9–16.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 12.0–14.2% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.6–6.1% 4.4–6.3% 4.2–6.5% 3.9–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 180 170–191 167–195 164–197 160–202
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 171 161–182 158–185 156–187 151–193
Alternative für Deutschland 94 106 98–115 95–117 93–119 89–124
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 98 90–107 88–109 86–111 82–116
Die Linke 69 60 54–67 52–69 50–71 48–75
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 47–59 45–61 44–63 41–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 34–46 33–47 32–49 30–52

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.2% 99.6%  
161 0.2% 99.3%  
162 0.4% 99.1%  
163 0.4% 98.6%  
164 0.7% 98%  
165 0.7% 97%  
166 1.1% 97%  
167 0.9% 96%  
168 1.3% 95%  
169 1.5% 94%  
170 2% 92%  
171 2% 90%  
172 2% 88%  
173 3% 86%  
174 3% 82%  
175 5% 79%  
176 5% 74%  
177 6% 69%  
178 3% 64%  
179 7% 61%  
180 5% 54% Median
181 7% 49%  
182 4% 42%  
183 5% 38%  
184 4% 33%  
185 4% 29%  
186 3% 25%  
187 4% 22%  
188 2% 18%  
189 2% 16%  
190 2% 14%  
191 2% 12%  
192 2% 10%  
193 1.5% 8%  
194 1.4% 7%  
195 1.0% 5%  
196 1.2% 4%  
197 0.8% 3%  
198 0.6% 2%  
199 0.4% 2%  
200 0.4% 1.2%  
201 0.2% 0.8%  
202 0.3% 0.6%  
203 0.1% 0.4%  
204 0.1% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0.1% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.2% 99.6%  
152 0.2% 99.3%  
153 0.3% 99.1%  
154 0.6% 98.8%  
155 0.6% 98%  
156 0.6% 98%  
157 1.4% 97%  
158 1.4% 96%  
159 1.3% 94%  
160 2% 93%  
161 2% 90%  
162 2% 88%  
163 4% 86%  
164 4% 82%  
165 3% 79%  
166 5% 76%  
167 5% 71%  
168 3% 66%  
169 6% 63%  
170 6% 57%  
171 3% 51% Median
172 7% 49%  
173 5% 42%  
174 3% 37%  
175 5% 34%  
176 4% 29%  
177 2% 25%  
178 4% 22%  
179 4% 18%  
180 2% 15%  
181 2% 13%  
182 2% 10%  
183 1.4% 8%  
184 1.4% 7%  
185 1.3% 5%  
186 0.7% 4%  
187 0.9% 3%  
188 0.8% 2%  
189 0.4% 2%  
190 0.3% 1.3%  
191 0.3% 0.9%  
192 0.1% 0.7%  
193 0.2% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.7%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 0.4% 99.3%  
91 0.3% 98.9%  
92 0.8% 98.6%  
93 0.7% 98%  
94 2% 97% Last Result
95 1.1% 96%  
96 2% 95%  
97 2% 92%  
98 3% 90%  
99 6% 88%  
100 3% 82%  
101 7% 80%  
102 5% 72%  
103 5% 67%  
104 8% 63%  
105 4% 55%  
106 6% 51% Median
107 5% 45%  
108 6% 40%  
109 4% 34%  
110 5% 31%  
111 5% 26%  
112 2% 21%  
113 5% 18%  
114 2% 13%  
115 3% 10%  
116 2% 7%  
117 1.1% 5%  
118 1.3% 4%  
119 0.5% 3%  
120 0.8% 2%  
121 0.3% 1.4%  
122 0.4% 1.1%  
123 0.2% 0.7%  
124 0.1% 0.5%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 0.3% 99.4%  
84 0.5% 99.2%  
85 0.7% 98.6%  
86 1.0% 98%  
87 1.0% 97%  
88 2% 96%  
89 4% 94%  
90 2% 91%  
91 3% 89%  
92 5% 86%  
93 4% 81%  
94 6% 77%  
95 4% 71%  
96 6% 67%  
97 8% 62%  
98 6% 54% Median
99 5% 47%  
100 5% 42%  
101 7% 37%  
102 5% 30%  
103 3% 25%  
104 4% 21%  
105 3% 17%  
106 4% 14%  
107 2% 10%  
108 2% 8%  
109 2% 6%  
110 1.0% 4%  
111 1.1% 3%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.4% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.2%  
115 0.2% 0.8%  
116 0.2% 0.6%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.5%  
49 0.4% 99.1%  
50 1.4% 98.7%  
51 1.3% 97%  
52 2% 96%  
53 4% 94%  
54 2% 90%  
55 6% 88%  
56 7% 82%  
57 3% 75%  
58 9% 72%  
59 8% 63%  
60 5% 55% Median
61 10% 50%  
62 6% 40%  
63 6% 33%  
64 7% 28%  
65 4% 21%  
66 5% 17%  
67 4% 12%  
68 1.1% 8%  
69 3% 7% Last Result
70 1.3% 4%  
71 0.6% 3%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.3%  
74 0.3% 0.9%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 0.6% 99.3%  
43 1.0% 98.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 94%  
47 4% 91%  
48 6% 86%  
49 6% 81%  
50 7% 75%  
51 9% 68%  
52 8% 60%  
53 8% 52% Median
54 8% 44%  
55 7% 36%  
56 6% 29%  
57 5% 23%  
58 6% 18%  
59 4% 12%  
60 2% 9%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 0.6% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.4%  
66 0.4% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.5%  
31 0.9% 99.0%  
32 2% 98%  
33 3% 96%  
34 4% 94%  
35 5% 90%  
36 7% 85%  
37 7% 78%  
38 9% 71%  
39 9% 62%  
40 9% 53% Median
41 9% 43%  
42 7% 34%  
43 7% 27%  
44 6% 20%  
45 4% 14%  
46 3% 10% Last Result
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.0% 3%  
50 0.7% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.1%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 489 100% 479–502 474–503 473–506 466–511
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 444 100% 433–456 430–460 426–462 421–468
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 391 100% 380–403 377–407 373–410 368–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 370 95% 358–382 354–385 351–388 346–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 362 79% 350–375 347–378 344–381 338–386
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 339 5% 327–351 324–355 321–358 315–363
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 332 0.8% 320–344 316–347 313–350 308–356
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 317 0% 305–329 302–332 299–335 293–341
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 309 0% 298–321 294–325 291–328 286–333
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 279 0% 267–291 264–294 261–297 255–303
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 264 0% 253–276 248–278 246–283 242–287
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 159 0% 149–169 146–171 144–174 139–180
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 151 0% 141–161 139–164 137–166 132–172

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
460 0% 100%  
461 0% 99.9%  
462 0% 99.9%  
463 0% 99.9%  
464 0.1% 99.9%  
465 0.2% 99.8%  
466 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
467 0.2% 99.5%  
468 0% 99.3%  
469 0% 99.3%  
470 0.1% 99.2%  
471 0.5% 99.2%  
472 1.1% 98.7%  
473 1.4% 98%  
474 1.3% 96%  
475 0.6% 95%  
476 0.2% 94%  
477 0.2% 94%  
478 1.2% 94%  
479 3% 93%  
480 6% 89%  
481 4% 84%  
482 3% 80%  
483 1.1% 77%  
484 0.3% 75%  
485 2% 75%  
486 4% 73%  
487 7% 69%  
488 9% 62%  
489 6% 53% Median
490 3% 46%  
491 0.5% 43%  
492 0.6% 43%  
493 2% 42%  
494 5% 40%  
495 8% 35%  
496 8% 26%  
497 4% 19%  
498 0.6% 15%  
499 0.2% 14%  
500 0.5% 14%  
501 2% 14%  
502 3% 12%  
503 4% 8%  
504 2% 5%  
505 0.5% 3%  
506 0.1% 3%  
507 0.1% 2%  
508 0.2% 2%  
509 0.5% 2%  
510 0.6% 2%  
511 0.5% 1.0%  
512 0.2% 0.5%  
513 0% 0.3%  
514 0% 0.2%  
515 0% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.2%  
517 0.1% 0.2%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.7%  
421 0.2% 99.5%  
422 0.1% 99.4%  
423 0.3% 99.2%  
424 0.4% 99.0%  
425 0.3% 98.6%  
426 0.9% 98%  
427 0.7% 97%  
428 0.8% 97%  
429 0.7% 96%  
430 1.0% 95%  
431 2% 94%  
432 2% 93%  
433 2% 91%  
434 2% 89%  
435 2% 86%  
436 3% 84%  
437 4% 81%  
438 3% 77%  
439 4% 74%  
440 3% 71%  
441 5% 68%  
442 4% 63%  
443 5% 59%  
444 6% 54% Median
445 3% 48%  
446 4% 45%  
447 4% 41%  
448 4% 37%  
449 3% 33%  
450 5% 29%  
451 3% 24%  
452 3% 22%  
453 4% 19%  
454 2% 15%  
455 2% 13%  
456 2% 11%  
457 2% 9%  
458 1.1% 7%  
459 1.2% 6%  
460 1.2% 5%  
461 0.8% 4%  
462 0.9% 3%  
463 0.4% 2%  
464 0.4% 2%  
465 0.3% 1.4%  
466 0.3% 1.1%  
467 0.2% 0.7%  
468 0.2% 0.5%  
469 0.1% 0.4%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.7%  
368 0.2% 99.5%  
369 0.1% 99.3%  
370 0.3% 99.2%  
371 0.3% 98.9%  
372 0.5% 98.5%  
373 0.6% 98%  
374 0.9% 97%  
375 0.9% 97%  
376 0.7% 96%  
377 1.3% 95%  
378 2% 94%  
379 1.5% 92%  
380 1.3% 91%  
381 4% 89%  
382 3% 86%  
383 2% 83%  
384 3% 81%  
385 4% 78%  
386 4% 75%  
387 2% 70%  
388 5% 68%  
389 5% 63%  
390 4% 58%  
391 5% 55% Median
392 5% 49%  
393 2% 44%  
394 4% 42%  
395 6% 38%  
396 3% 32%  
397 2% 29%  
398 3% 27%  
399 5% 23%  
400 2% 19%  
401 3% 17%  
402 2% 14%  
403 2% 12%  
404 1.3% 10%  
405 2% 9%  
406 1.3% 7%  
407 0.6% 5%  
408 1.0% 5%  
409 0.9% 4%  
410 0.7% 3%  
411 0.3% 2%  
412 0.6% 2%  
413 0.5% 1.3%  
414 0.1% 0.8%  
415 0.1% 0.7%  
416 0.2% 0.6%  
417 0.1% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0.2% 99.5%  
347 0.3% 99.3%  
348 0.3% 99.1%  
349 0.4% 98.8%  
350 0.5% 98%  
351 0.6% 98%  
352 0.6% 97%  
353 0.9% 97%  
354 1.1% 96%  
355 0.9% 95% Majority
356 1.3% 94%  
357 2% 92%  
358 2% 91%  
359 2% 89%  
360 2% 86%  
361 3% 84%  
362 2% 81%  
363 4% 78%  
364 4% 74%  
365 4% 71%  
366 3% 66%  
367 4% 63%  
368 4% 60%  
369 3% 55%  
370 4% 52% Median
371 4% 48%  
372 5% 43%  
373 3% 38%  
374 5% 36%  
375 4% 31%  
376 3% 27%  
377 4% 24%  
378 3% 20%  
379 2% 17%  
380 2% 15%  
381 2% 13%  
382 2% 10%  
383 2% 9%  
384 1.0% 7%  
385 1.2% 6%  
386 1.1% 5%  
387 0.8% 4%  
388 0.8% 3%  
389 0.4% 2%  
390 0.5% 2%  
391 0.3% 1.3%  
392 0.2% 1.0%  
393 0.3% 0.8%  
394 0.1% 0.5%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.7%  
338 0.2% 99.6%  
339 0.2% 99.4%  
340 0.3% 99.2%  
341 0.5% 98.9%  
342 0.4% 98%  
343 0.5% 98%  
344 0.5% 98%  
345 0.9% 97%  
346 0.9% 96%  
347 1.5% 95%  
348 2% 94%  
349 1.4% 92%  
350 2% 91%  
351 2% 89%  
352 2% 87%  
353 3% 85%  
354 4% 83%  
355 2% 79% Majority
356 3% 77%  
357 2% 74%  
358 5% 71%  
359 4% 66%  
360 5% 62%  
361 5% 57%  
362 3% 52% Median
363 4% 49%  
364 5% 45%  
365 5% 40%  
366 3% 36%  
367 4% 32%  
368 3% 28%  
369 3% 25%  
370 3% 22%  
371 2% 18%  
372 2% 16%  
373 2% 14%  
374 2% 12%  
375 1.1% 10%  
376 2% 9%  
377 1.4% 6%  
378 0.8% 5%  
379 0.8% 4%  
380 0.8% 3%  
381 0.6% 3%  
382 0.5% 2%  
383 0.4% 2%  
384 0.3% 1.2%  
385 0.2% 0.9%  
386 0.2% 0.6%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.3% 99.5%  
317 0.2% 99.2%  
318 0.3% 99.0%  
319 0.5% 98.7%  
320 0.4% 98%  
321 0.8% 98%  
322 0.8% 97%  
323 1.1% 96%  
324 1.2% 95%  
325 1.0% 94%  
326 2% 93%  
327 2% 91%  
328 2% 90%  
329 2% 87%  
330 2% 85%  
331 3% 83%  
332 4% 80%  
333 3% 76%  
334 4% 73%  
335 5% 69%  
336 3% 64%  
337 5% 62%  
338 4% 57% Median
339 4% 52%  
340 3% 48%  
341 4% 45%  
342 4% 40%  
343 3% 37%  
344 4% 34%  
345 4% 29%  
346 4% 26%  
347 2% 22%  
348 3% 19%  
349 2% 16%  
350 2% 14%  
351 2% 11%  
352 2% 9%  
353 1.3% 8%  
354 0.9% 6%  
355 1.1% 5% Majority
356 0.9% 4%  
357 0.6% 3%  
358 0.6% 3%  
359 0.5% 2%  
360 0.4% 2%  
361 0.3% 1.2%  
362 0.3% 0.9%  
363 0.2% 0.7%  
364 0.1% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.5%  
309 0.3% 99.4%  
310 0.2% 99.1%  
311 0.5% 98.9%  
312 0.3% 98%  
313 0.6% 98%  
314 0.5% 97%  
315 1.0% 97%  
316 1.0% 96%  
317 1.3% 95%  
318 1.3% 94%  
319 2% 92%  
320 2% 90%  
321 3% 89%  
322 2% 86%  
323 2% 84%  
324 4% 82%  
325 4% 78%  
326 3% 74%  
327 4% 71%  
328 4% 67%  
329 4% 63%  
330 5% 59%  
331 3% 55% Median
332 5% 51%  
333 3% 46%  
334 6% 44%  
335 3% 37%  
336 4% 34%  
337 2% 30%  
338 5% 28%  
339 2% 23%  
340 4% 21%  
341 2% 17%  
342 3% 15%  
343 1.2% 12%  
344 2% 11%  
345 2% 9%  
346 2% 7%  
347 0.8% 6%  
348 1.1% 5%  
349 0.7% 4%  
350 0.9% 3%  
351 0.3% 2%  
352 0.5% 2%  
353 0.4% 1.4%  
354 0.3% 1.0%  
355 0.2% 0.8% Majority
356 0.1% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.4%  
295 0.3% 99.2%  
296 0.3% 98.9%  
297 0.5% 98.5%  
298 0.5% 98%  
299 0.7% 98%  
300 0.6% 97%  
301 1.0% 96%  
302 1.4% 95%  
303 1.4% 94%  
304 2% 93%  
305 2% 91%  
306 2% 88%  
307 3% 87%  
308 3% 84%  
309 2% 81%  
310 4% 79%  
311 4% 75%  
312 3% 72%  
313 4% 68%  
314 3% 64%  
315 4% 60%  
316 6% 56%  
317 3% 51% Median
318 3% 48%  
319 5% 44%  
320 5% 39%  
321 4% 34%  
322 3% 30%  
323 3% 27%  
324 3% 24%  
325 4% 21%  
326 3% 18%  
327 2% 15%  
328 2% 13%  
329 2% 11%  
330 2% 8%  
331 1.0% 7%  
332 1.0% 6%  
333 0.9% 5%  
334 0.8% 4%  
335 0.7% 3%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.4% 1.4%  
339 0.2% 1.0%  
340 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
341 0.2% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.2% 99.5%  
287 0.3% 99.3%  
288 0.2% 99.1%  
289 0.4% 98.8%  
290 0.6% 98%  
291 0.7% 98%  
292 0.8% 97%  
293 0.8% 96%  
294 2% 95%  
295 1.0% 94%  
296 2% 93%  
297 0.9% 91%  
298 3% 90%  
299 2% 87%  
300 3% 86%  
301 3% 82%  
302 2% 80%  
303 3% 77%  
304 3% 74%  
305 4% 71%  
306 6% 67%  
307 2% 62%  
308 5% 59%  
309 7% 55% Median
310 3% 48%  
311 6% 45%  
312 4% 39%  
313 3% 35%  
314 5% 32%  
315 3% 28%  
316 1.4% 24%  
317 5% 23%  
318 2% 18%  
319 2% 16%  
320 3% 14%  
321 2% 12%  
322 1.0% 10%  
323 2% 9%  
324 1.4% 7%  
325 1.2% 6%  
326 0.8% 4%  
327 0.9% 4%  
328 0.5% 3%  
329 0.6% 2%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0.3% 1.1%  
332 0.2% 0.8%  
333 0.1% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.2% 99.6%  
256 0.2% 99.5%  
257 0.2% 99.3%  
258 0.4% 99.1%  
259 0.4% 98.7%  
260 0.6% 98%  
261 0.5% 98%  
262 0.8% 97%  
263 0.9% 96%  
264 1.2% 95%  
265 1.5% 94%  
266 2% 93%  
267 2% 91%  
268 2% 89%  
269 3% 87%  
270 3% 85%  
271 3% 82%  
272 3% 79%  
273 5% 76%  
274 4% 71%  
275 3% 66%  
276 5% 64%  
277 3% 59%  
278 5% 56% Median
279 4% 51%  
280 4% 47%  
281 5% 44%  
282 4% 39%  
283 5% 35%  
284 3% 30%  
285 4% 27%  
286 3% 24%  
287 3% 20%  
288 3% 18%  
289 2% 14%  
290 2% 12%  
291 2% 10%  
292 1.3% 8%  
293 1.4% 7%  
294 1.1% 6%  
295 0.8% 5%  
296 0.9% 4%  
297 0.5% 3%  
298 0.7% 2%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.3% 1.3%  
301 0.3% 1.0%  
302 0.1% 0.7%  
303 0.2% 0.6%  
304 0.1% 0.4%  
305 0.1% 0.3%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.7%  
240 0% 99.6%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.5%  
243 0.4% 99.4%  
244 0.4% 99.0%  
245 0.8% 98.6%  
246 1.3% 98%  
247 1.1% 96%  
248 0.8% 95%  
249 1.1% 95%  
250 0.2% 93%  
251 0.6% 93%  
252 0.7% 93%  
253 3% 92%  
254 3% 89%  
255 4% 86%  
256 5% 82%  
257 6% 77%  
258 3% 71%  
259 3% 68%  
260 0.9% 65%  
261 1.5% 64%  
262 2% 63%  
263 3% 61%  
264 8% 57% Median
265 5% 50%  
266 8% 45%  
267 7% 37%  
268 4% 30%  
269 3% 26%  
270 1.4% 24%  
271 0.9% 22%  
272 1.3% 21%  
273 2% 20%  
274 3% 18%  
275 3% 15%  
276 3% 11%  
277 3% 8%  
278 1.4% 5%  
279 0.5% 4%  
280 0.4% 4%  
281 0.2% 3%  
282 0.3% 3%  
283 0.4% 3%  
284 0.4% 2%  
285 0.7% 2%  
286 0.3% 1.1%  
287 0.3% 0.7%  
288 0.2% 0.4%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.7%  
139 0.2% 99.5%  
140 0.2% 99.3%  
141 0.3% 99.1%  
142 0.4% 98.8%  
143 0.6% 98%  
144 1.0% 98%  
145 1.1% 97%  
146 1.3% 96%  
147 1.4% 94%  
148 2% 93%  
149 2% 91%  
150 4% 89%  
151 2% 85%  
152 4% 83%  
153 5% 78%  
154 4% 73%  
155 4% 70%  
156 4% 65%  
157 3% 61%  
158 7% 57% Median
159 6% 51%  
160 4% 45%  
161 5% 40%  
162 4% 35%  
163 3% 31%  
164 5% 28%  
165 5% 23%  
166 2% 18%  
167 2% 16%  
168 2% 13%  
169 2% 11%  
170 3% 9%  
171 1.3% 6%  
172 0.7% 5%  
173 1.0% 4%  
174 1.0% 3%  
175 0.5% 2%  
176 0.4% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.3%  
178 0.3% 0.9%  
179 0.2% 0.7%  
180 0.2% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.8%  
130 0.1% 99.8%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 0.2% 99.5%  
133 0.2% 99.3%  
134 0.4% 99.1%  
135 0.5% 98.7%  
136 0.6% 98%  
137 1.3% 98%  
138 0.8% 96%  
139 2% 96%  
140 2% 94%  
141 3% 92%  
142 2% 89%  
143 2% 87%  
144 4% 85%  
145 4% 81%  
146 4% 77%  
147 5% 74%  
148 4% 69%  
149 5% 64%  
150 6% 59%  
151 6% 53% Median
152 5% 47%  
153 4% 42%  
154 5% 38%  
155 5% 33%  
156 4% 28%  
157 3% 24%  
158 3% 21%  
159 4% 18%  
160 2% 14%  
161 2% 11%  
162 2% 9%  
163 2% 7%  
164 1.0% 5%  
165 0.8% 4%  
166 1.0% 3%  
167 0.6% 2%  
168 0.4% 2%  
169 0.4% 1.5%  
170 0.3% 1.1%  
171 0.2% 0.7%  
172 0.2% 0.5%  
173 0.1% 0.3%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations