Opinion Poll by Kantar for Bild am Sonntag, 2–9 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.0% 21.2–24.4% 20.9–24.7% 20.4–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.8–22.2% 19.5–22.6% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.7–15.4% 12.5–15.6% 12.0–16.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–5.9% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 173 165–183 161–185 160–188 155–193
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 160 152–170 148–172 145–174 143–180
Alternative für Deutschland 94 114 105–123 103–124 103–126 100–130
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 107 99–115 97–116 96–120 91–122
Die Linke 69 61 56–68 54–69 52–71 50–74
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 49–59 47–61 45–62 43–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–46 34–47 34–48 31–50

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.2% 99.8%  
155 0.3% 99.6%  
156 0.2% 99.3%  
157 0.3% 99.1%  
158 0.8% 98.7%  
159 0.4% 98%  
160 1.2% 98%  
161 2% 96%  
162 1.4% 95%  
163 1.1% 93%  
164 2% 92%  
165 3% 90%  
166 3% 87%  
167 4% 85%  
168 5% 81%  
169 2% 76%  
170 4% 73%  
171 7% 70%  
172 5% 63%  
173 9% 58% Median
174 3% 48%  
175 7% 45%  
176 3% 38%  
177 7% 35%  
178 5% 29%  
179 4% 23%  
180 3% 19%  
181 3% 16%  
182 1.4% 13%  
183 3% 11%  
184 1.0% 9%  
185 3% 8%  
186 1.0% 5%  
187 0.4% 4%  
188 1.5% 3%  
189 0.6% 2%  
190 0.5% 1.2%  
191 0.2% 0.8%  
192 0.1% 0.6%  
193 0.1% 0.5%  
194 0.2% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.2% 99.7%  
143 0.6% 99.5%  
144 1.2% 99.0%  
145 1.0% 98%  
146 0.7% 97%  
147 0.5% 96%  
148 0.7% 96%  
149 0.4% 95%  
150 0.7% 95%  
151 2% 94%  
152 4% 92%  
153 9% 88%  
154 5% 78%  
155 11% 73%  
156 2% 62%  
157 3% 60%  
158 2% 58%  
159 4% 56%  
160 3% 52% Median
161 8% 49%  
162 5% 41%  
163 8% 36%  
164 5% 28%  
165 4% 22%  
166 3% 18%  
167 1.4% 16%  
168 1.1% 14%  
169 2% 13%  
170 2% 11%  
171 4% 9%  
172 1.3% 5%  
173 1.4% 4%  
174 1.3% 3%  
175 0.1% 1.4%  
176 0.2% 1.3%  
177 0.1% 1.1%  
178 0.3% 1.1%  
179 0.2% 0.8%  
180 0.3% 0.6%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.1% 99.7%  
100 0.3% 99.6%  
101 0.3% 99.3%  
102 0.7% 99.0%  
103 4% 98%  
104 2% 95%  
105 4% 93%  
106 5% 89%  
107 1.1% 84%  
108 3% 83%  
109 2% 80%  
110 2% 78%  
111 5% 75%  
112 12% 70%  
113 6% 58%  
114 6% 51% Median
115 3% 45%  
116 2% 42%  
117 4% 40%  
118 4% 36%  
119 2% 32%  
120 10% 30%  
121 1.0% 21%  
122 9% 20%  
123 5% 10%  
124 2% 6%  
125 0.6% 4%  
126 1.4% 3%  
127 0.6% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.3%  
129 0.2% 0.9%  
130 0.3% 0.7%  
131 0.2% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.6% 99.8%  
92 0.5% 99.2%  
93 0.4% 98.8%  
94 0.5% 98%  
95 0.3% 98%  
96 1.4% 98%  
97 2% 96%  
98 4% 95%  
99 4% 91%  
100 4% 87%  
101 4% 83%  
102 3% 79%  
103 3% 76%  
104 3% 74%  
105 6% 71%  
106 14% 64%  
107 10% 50% Median
108 7% 41%  
109 1.2% 34%  
110 7% 32%  
111 4% 25%  
112 3% 21%  
113 4% 18%  
114 4% 14%  
115 3% 10%  
116 3% 7%  
117 0.8% 4%  
118 0.5% 4%  
119 0.5% 3%  
120 0.9% 3%  
121 1.0% 2%  
122 0.2% 0.6%  
123 0.1% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.5%  
51 0.5% 99.3%  
52 2% 98.9%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 95%  
55 2% 93%  
56 5% 91%  
57 6% 85%  
58 7% 79%  
59 14% 72%  
60 5% 58%  
61 13% 53% Median
62 6% 40%  
63 5% 34%  
64 3% 28%  
65 3% 25%  
66 10% 22%  
67 1.5% 12%  
68 5% 11%  
69 1.3% 6% Last Result
70 2% 5%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.2%  
74 0.4% 0.8%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.2% 99.6%  
44 1.2% 99.3%  
45 1.1% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 1.3% 95%  
48 3% 94%  
49 12% 90%  
50 3% 78%  
51 9% 75%  
52 6% 66%  
53 13% 60% Median
54 6% 47%  
55 8% 40%  
56 9% 33%  
57 5% 24%  
58 8% 19%  
59 1.3% 11%  
60 3% 10%  
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.2% 1.4%  
65 0.8% 1.2%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 0.7% 99.6%  
32 0.4% 98.9%  
33 1.0% 98.5%  
34 5% 98%  
35 12% 92%  
36 6% 80%  
37 3% 74%  
38 5% 71%  
39 8% 66%  
40 9% 58% Median
41 13% 48%  
42 16% 36%  
43 5% 20%  
44 3% 15%  
45 2% 12%  
46 4% 10% Last Result
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 1.4%  
50 0.3% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 479 100% 470–491 468–493 465–495 459–499
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 423 100% 419–439 417–440 415–441 404–445
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 382 99.9% 369–393 368–395 365–397 360–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 374 99.1% 364–384 361–387 358–391 351–395
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 372 99.0% 363–386 361–388 359–390 351–394
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 327 0.1% 316–340 314–341 312–344 307–349
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 328 0.1% 317–339 313–342 312–343 307–348
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 320 0% 310–330 307–335 303–338 300–340
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 322 0% 312–331 305–334 305–335 298–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 266 0% 257–279 253–280 251–284 246–287
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 267 0% 256–278 254–281 252–283 246–289
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 167 0% 156–177 155–178 154–180 152–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 161 0% 151–169 149–173 146–175 144–180

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
454 0% 100%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.9%  
457 0.1% 99.8%  
458 0.1% 99.7%  
459 0.3% 99.6%  
460 0.1% 99.3%  
461 0.3% 99.2%  
462 0.2% 99.0%  
463 0.1% 98.7%  
464 0.4% 98.6%  
465 1.4% 98%  
466 0.7% 97% Last Result
467 1.0% 96%  
468 2% 95%  
469 2% 93%  
470 2% 91%  
471 1.2% 89%  
472 2% 88%  
473 4% 86%  
474 3% 82%  
475 5% 79%  
476 11% 73%  
477 5% 63%  
478 3% 58%  
479 11% 54%  
480 1.3% 43% Median
481 1.0% 42%  
482 4% 41%  
483 2% 37%  
484 2% 34%  
485 7% 32%  
486 4% 25%  
487 3% 20%  
488 3% 17%  
489 1.1% 14%  
490 1.5% 13%  
491 4% 12%  
492 2% 8%  
493 2% 6%  
494 1.5% 5%  
495 1.3% 3%  
496 1.0% 2%  
497 0.2% 1.1%  
498 0.2% 0.9%  
499 0.2% 0.7%  
500 0.1% 0.4%  
501 0.1% 0.4%  
502 0.1% 0.3%  
503 0.1% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.2%  
505 0.1% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0.1% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.9%  
403 0.2% 99.8%  
404 0.4% 99.6%  
405 0.2% 99.2%  
406 0.2% 98.9%  
407 0.1% 98.8%  
408 0.1% 98.7%  
409 0.1% 98.5%  
410 0% 98%  
411 0.1% 98%  
412 0% 98%  
413 0.1% 98%  
414 0.6% 98%  
415 0.3% 98%  
416 1.4% 97%  
417 2% 96%  
418 2% 94%  
419 4% 92%  
420 10% 88%  
421 12% 78%  
422 7% 66%  
423 16% 59%  
424 3% 43%  
425 3% 41%  
426 4% 38% Median
427 0.3% 35%  
428 1.5% 34%  
429 0.5% 33%  
430 0.2% 32%  
431 0.3% 32%  
432 0.8% 32%  
433 1.2% 31%  
434 2% 30%  
435 2% 28%  
436 3% 26%  
437 2% 23%  
438 7% 21%  
439 4% 14%  
440 6% 10%  
441 1.5% 3%  
442 0.8% 2%  
443 0.4% 1.2%  
444 0.2% 0.7%  
445 0.2% 0.5%  
446 0.1% 0.3%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0.2% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.6%  
360 0.2% 99.6%  
361 0.1% 99.4%  
362 0.1% 99.3%  
363 0.3% 99.2%  
364 0.6% 98.9%  
365 0.9% 98%  
366 0.7% 97%  
367 0.6% 97%  
368 2% 96%  
369 4% 94%  
370 1.0% 90%  
371 4% 89%  
372 2% 85%  
373 4% 83%  
374 3% 79%  
375 2% 76%  
376 6% 74%  
377 4% 69%  
378 5% 65%  
379 3% 59%  
380 4% 57% Median
381 2% 52%  
382 6% 50%  
383 1.3% 44%  
384 4% 43%  
385 4% 39%  
386 4% 36%  
387 4% 31%  
388 3% 28%  
389 2% 25%  
390 4% 23%  
391 4% 19%  
392 4% 15%  
393 3% 11%  
394 0.9% 8%  
395 2% 7%  
396 1.4% 4%  
397 0.5% 3%  
398 0.8% 2%  
399 0.7% 2%  
400 0.3% 1.0%  
401 0.1% 0.7%  
402 0.2% 0.6%  
403 0% 0.4%  
404 0.2% 0.4%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0.1% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0.3% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.5%  
353 0.2% 99.4%  
354 0.1% 99.2%  
355 0.3% 99.1% Majority
356 0.5% 98.7%  
357 0.7% 98%  
358 0.3% 98%  
359 1.3% 97%  
360 0.5% 96%  
361 3% 96%  
362 1.4% 92%  
363 0.8% 91%  
364 3% 90%  
365 4% 87%  
366 0.7% 83%  
367 5% 82%  
368 4% 77%  
369 6% 73%  
370 2% 67%  
371 2% 65%  
372 2% 63%  
373 10% 61% Median
374 3% 52%  
375 7% 49%  
376 0.6% 41%  
377 8% 41%  
378 6% 33%  
379 3% 27%  
380 4% 24%  
381 4% 20%  
382 2% 16%  
383 3% 14%  
384 2% 11%  
385 2% 9%  
386 2% 7%  
387 0.9% 5%  
388 0.9% 4%  
389 0.7% 3%  
390 0.3% 3%  
391 0.6% 3%  
392 0.6% 2%  
393 0.1% 1.3%  
394 0.6% 1.2%  
395 0.1% 0.6%  
396 0.2% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0.1% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.2% 99.8%  
351 0.2% 99.6%  
352 0.1% 99.4%  
353 0.1% 99.2%  
354 0.2% 99.1%  
355 0.3% 99.0% Majority
356 0.2% 98.7%  
357 0.4% 98.5%  
358 0.5% 98%  
359 1.0% 98%  
360 1.1% 97%  
361 1.4% 96%  
362 4% 94%  
363 0.9% 90%  
364 3% 89%  
365 3% 86%  
366 5% 83%  
367 5% 78%  
368 5% 73%  
369 8% 67%  
370 2% 59%  
371 6% 58%  
372 5% 51%  
373 5% 46% Median
374 3% 40%  
375 3% 37%  
376 2% 35%  
377 3% 32%  
378 1.3% 30%  
379 3% 28%  
380 3% 26%  
381 2% 23%  
382 1.3% 21%  
383 4% 20%  
384 0.6% 16%  
385 5% 16%  
386 2% 11%  
387 3% 9%  
388 2% 6%  
389 1.4% 4%  
390 0.8% 3%  
391 0.8% 2%  
392 0.4% 1.1%  
393 0.1% 0.7%  
394 0.2% 0.5%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0.2% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.6%  
307 0.2% 99.6%  
308 0.1% 99.4%  
309 0.3% 99.3%  
310 0.7% 99.0%  
311 0.8% 98%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 1.4% 97%  
314 2% 96%  
315 0.9% 93%  
316 3% 92%  
317 4% 89%  
318 4% 85%  
319 4% 81%  
320 2% 77%  
321 3% 75%  
322 4% 72%  
323 4% 69%  
324 4% 64%  
325 4% 61%  
326 1.3% 57%  
327 6% 56%  
328 2% 50% Median
329 4% 48%  
330 3% 43%  
331 5% 41%  
332 4% 35%  
333 6% 31%  
334 2% 26%  
335 3% 24%  
336 4% 21%  
337 2% 17%  
338 4% 15%  
339 1.0% 11%  
340 4% 10%  
341 2% 6%  
342 0.6% 4%  
343 0.7% 3%  
344 0.9% 3%  
345 0.6% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.1%  
347 0.1% 0.8%  
348 0.1% 0.7%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0% 0.4%  
351 0.2% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0.1% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.7%  
307 0.3% 99.7%  
308 0.3% 99.4%  
309 0.1% 99.1%  
310 0.1% 99.0%  
311 0.9% 98.9%  
312 2% 98%  
313 0.9% 96%  
314 1.0% 95%  
315 0.9% 94%  
316 0.6% 93%  
317 4% 92%  
318 1.4% 88%  
319 2% 87%  
320 12% 85%  
321 2% 73%  
322 0.9% 71%  
323 2% 70%  
324 5% 68%  
325 7% 63%  
326 3% 55%  
327 0.7% 52% Median
328 2% 51%  
329 6% 49%  
330 5% 43%  
331 1.4% 38%  
332 2% 36%  
333 3% 35%  
334 2% 32%  
335 4% 30%  
336 0.7% 26%  
337 7% 25%  
338 7% 18%  
339 4% 11%  
340 0.5% 7% Last Result
341 1.0% 6%  
342 2% 5%  
343 1.4% 4%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.0%  
348 0.2% 0.6%  
349 0% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0.1% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
301 1.1% 99.4%  
302 0.5% 98%  
303 0.3% 98%  
304 0.8% 97%  
305 0.6% 97%  
306 0.6% 96%  
307 0.8% 96%  
308 0.9% 95%  
309 0.9% 94%  
310 4% 93%  
311 7% 89%  
312 3% 82%  
313 5% 78%  
314 2% 73%  
315 3% 71%  
316 7% 67%  
317 2% 61%  
318 5% 59%  
319 3% 54%  
320 6% 51% Median
321 3% 45%  
322 2% 42%  
323 5% 40%  
324 3% 35%  
325 3% 32%  
326 4% 29%  
327 5% 25%  
328 5% 20%  
329 2% 15%  
330 4% 13%  
331 0.8% 9%  
332 0.7% 8%  
333 0.6% 7%  
334 0.8% 7%  
335 2% 6%  
336 0.8% 5%  
337 0.4% 4%  
338 1.4% 3%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 1.2% 2%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.2% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0.2% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0% 99.5%  
300 0% 99.5%  
301 0.5% 99.5%  
302 0.4% 98.9%  
303 0% 98.5%  
304 0.9% 98.5%  
305 4% 98%  
306 0.3% 94%  
307 0% 94%  
308 0.7% 94%  
309 1.3% 93%  
310 0.1% 92%  
311 0.2% 92%  
312 9% 91%  
313 10% 82%  
314 0% 72%  
315 0.2% 72%  
316 6% 72%  
317 2% 66%  
318 0% 64%  
319 3% 64%  
320 9% 61% Median
321 0.2% 51%  
322 2% 51%  
323 13% 49%  
324 18% 37%  
325 0.5% 19%  
326 0.1% 18%  
327 1.4% 18%  
328 2% 17%  
329 0% 15%  
330 4% 15%  
331 6% 11%  
332 0.3% 5%  
333 0% 5%  
334 1.4% 5%  
335 1.3% 4%  
336 0% 2%  
337 0.1% 2%  
338 0.7% 2%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0% 1.4%  
341 0.4% 1.4%  
342 0.9% 1.0%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0.6% 99.6%  
247 0.1% 99.0%  
248 0.1% 98.9%  
249 0.2% 98.7%  
250 0.1% 98.5%  
251 1.0% 98%  
252 1.3% 97%  
253 3% 96%  
254 0.9% 93%  
255 1.3% 92%  
256 0.6% 91%  
257 1.0% 90%  
258 4% 89%  
259 4% 85%  
260 6% 81%  
261 5% 75%  
262 6% 70%  
263 5% 65%  
264 4% 60%  
265 6% 56%  
266 3% 51%  
267 5% 48% Median
268 5% 43%  
269 5% 38%  
270 4% 33%  
271 2% 29%  
272 6% 27%  
273 2% 21%  
274 1.0% 20%  
275 1.0% 19%  
276 2% 18%  
277 4% 16%  
278 0.9% 11%  
279 5% 11%  
280 2% 6%  
281 0.1% 4%  
282 0.4% 3%  
283 0.2% 3%  
284 1.2% 3%  
285 0.5% 2%  
286 0.6% 1.2%  
287 0.3% 0.6%  
288 0% 0.3%  
289 0.1% 0.3%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0.1% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.2% 99.8%  
246 0.2% 99.6%  
247 0.2% 99.5%  
248 0.7% 99.3%  
249 0.3% 98.6%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.4% 98%  
252 1.2% 98%  
253 0.4% 96%  
254 2% 96%  
255 3% 94%  
256 2% 91%  
257 1.0% 90%  
258 2% 88%  
259 5% 87%  
260 4% 82%  
261 4% 78%  
262 4% 74%  
263 1.0% 70%  
264 3% 69%  
265 6% 66%  
266 6% 60% Median
267 9% 54%  
268 7% 45%  
269 6% 39%  
270 5% 33%  
271 2% 29%  
272 1.4% 27%  
273 5% 25%  
274 1.4% 20%  
275 4% 19%  
276 1.0% 15%  
277 1.4% 14%  
278 3% 13%  
279 4% 10%  
280 0.9% 6%  
281 2% 5%  
282 0.6% 3%  
283 0.3% 3%  
284 0.3% 2%  
285 0.5% 2%  
286 0.5% 1.5%  
287 0.1% 1.0%  
288 0.2% 0.9%  
289 0.3% 0.6%  
290 0.1% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.8%  
152 0.7% 99.5%  
153 1.1% 98.8%  
154 2% 98%  
155 3% 96%  
156 4% 93%  
157 0.6% 89%  
158 2% 88%  
159 1.0% 87%  
160 0.6% 86%  
161 0.6% 85%  
162 0.8% 84%  
163 6% 84%  
164 7% 77%  
165 7% 70%  
166 12% 64%  
167 6% 52%  
168 8% 46% Median
169 3% 38%  
170 0.6% 35%  
171 0.4% 34%  
172 0.8% 34%  
173 2% 33%  
174 4% 31%  
175 6% 27%  
176 6% 20%  
177 5% 15%  
178 6% 10%  
179 1.2% 4%  
180 1.0% 3%  
181 0.4% 2%  
182 0% 1.4%  
183 0% 1.3%  
184 0.2% 1.3%  
185 0.1% 1.1%  
186 0.4% 1.0%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.7%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.1% 99.6%  
144 0.5% 99.5%  
145 1.3% 99.0%  
146 0.5% 98%  
147 0.7% 97%  
148 0.6% 96%  
149 2% 96%  
150 2% 94%  
151 3% 92%  
152 2% 88%  
153 2% 86%  
154 3% 84%  
155 5% 81%  
156 7% 76%  
157 7% 69%  
158 2% 62%  
159 5% 60%  
160 4% 55% Median
161 7% 51%  
162 8% 44%  
163 4% 36%  
164 5% 32%  
165 4% 27%  
166 4% 22%  
167 2% 18%  
168 4% 16%  
169 4% 12%  
170 1.0% 8%  
171 0.9% 7%  
172 0.8% 6%  
173 2% 6%  
174 1.1% 4%  
175 0.9% 3%  
176 0.5% 2%  
177 0.2% 1.1%  
178 0.2% 0.8%  
179 0.1% 0.7%  
180 0.2% 0.6%  
181 0.2% 0.3%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations