Opinion Poll by Forsa, 7–11 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.8–24.3% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–25.0% 20.6–25.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.8–23.2% 20.4–23.5% 20.2–23.9% 19.6–24.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.4% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.3–6.0% 4.2–6.2% 3.9–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 177 168–187 166–189 163–191 159–196
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 170 160–178 157–180 155–183 151–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 108 101–115 98–118 96–121 93–124
Alternative für Deutschland 94 91 86–101 85–102 84–103 78–107
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 62 55–69 54–70 54–70 50–75
Die Linke 69 61 57–67 55–70 54–72 51–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–43 34–47 34–48 30–49

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0.1% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0.2% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.7%  
159 0.4% 99.6%  
160 0.3% 99.3%  
161 0.4% 99.0%  
162 0.9% 98.5%  
163 0.5% 98%  
164 0.8% 97%  
165 0.8% 96%  
166 3% 96%  
167 1.1% 92%  
168 7% 91%  
169 1.2% 84%  
170 2% 83%  
171 6% 81%  
172 2% 75%  
173 10% 73%  
174 0.5% 63%  
175 5% 62%  
176 7% 57%  
177 6% 50% Median
178 2% 44%  
179 4% 43%  
180 3% 39%  
181 4% 36%  
182 11% 32%  
183 1.0% 21%  
184 2% 20%  
185 5% 18%  
186 2% 13%  
187 2% 11%  
188 3% 9%  
189 0.5% 5%  
190 0.6% 5%  
191 2% 4%  
192 0.6% 2%  
193 0.8% 2%  
194 0.2% 1.0%  
195 0.2% 0.8%  
196 0.3% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0.1% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0.1% 99.4%  
153 0.2% 99.3%  
154 0.5% 99.1%  
155 1.2% 98.6%  
156 1.0% 97%  
157 2% 96%  
158 3% 95%  
159 0.9% 92%  
160 3% 91%  
161 2% 88%  
162 1.0% 86%  
163 6% 85%  
164 4% 79%  
165 6% 75%  
166 5% 70%  
167 5% 65%  
168 3% 60%  
169 5% 57%  
170 3% 53% Median
171 6% 49%  
172 8% 43%  
173 7% 36%  
174 3% 29%  
175 12% 26%  
176 1.0% 14%  
177 3% 13%  
178 4% 10%  
179 0.4% 6%  
180 1.2% 6%  
181 0.9% 5%  
182 0.7% 4%  
183 1.1% 3%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.9% 1.5%  
186 0.1% 0.6%  
187 0.2% 0.5%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.4% 99.3%  
95 0.4% 99.0%  
96 1.1% 98.5%  
97 2% 97%  
98 1.4% 95%  
99 3% 94%  
100 0.8% 91%  
101 3% 90%  
102 11% 88%  
103 3% 77%  
104 4% 73%  
105 5% 69%  
106 7% 64%  
107 7% 57%  
108 7% 51% Median
109 3% 43%  
110 3% 41%  
111 8% 37%  
112 3% 29%  
113 12% 26%  
114 2% 15%  
115 3% 13%  
116 2% 10%  
117 2% 8%  
118 1.4% 6%  
119 1.1% 5%  
120 0.9% 4%  
121 0.4% 3%  
122 2% 2%  
123 0.1% 0.6%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.4%  
80 0.3% 99.0%  
81 0.2% 98.7%  
82 0.2% 98%  
83 0.7% 98%  
84 1.1% 98%  
85 3% 96%  
86 10% 94%  
87 5% 84%  
88 13% 79%  
89 8% 66%  
90 3% 58%  
91 7% 55% Median
92 5% 48%  
93 10% 43%  
94 6% 33% Last Result
95 3% 27%  
96 3% 24%  
97 2% 22%  
98 0.7% 19%  
99 2% 19%  
100 4% 17%  
101 7% 13%  
102 3% 6%  
103 1.0% 3%  
104 1.2% 2%  
105 0.4% 1.2%  
106 0.2% 0.8%  
107 0.2% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.3% 99.5%  
51 0.2% 99.2%  
52 0.1% 99.0%  
53 0.2% 99.0%  
54 4% 98.8%  
55 5% 95%  
56 9% 90%  
57 3% 80%  
58 2% 77%  
59 0.6% 76%  
60 1.5% 75%  
61 17% 74%  
62 11% 57% Median
63 22% 46%  
64 4% 24%  
65 2% 20%  
66 0.5% 18%  
67 1.0% 18%  
68 6% 17%  
69 3% 10%  
70 5% 7%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.2% 1.2%  
73 0.1% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.9%  
75 0.4% 0.8%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.1% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.5%  
52 0.8% 98.8%  
53 0.2% 98%  
54 1.1% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 3% 94%  
57 2% 91%  
58 13% 89%  
59 9% 76%  
60 9% 67%  
61 11% 59% Median
62 6% 47%  
63 12% 42%  
64 13% 30%  
65 2% 16%  
66 3% 15%  
67 4% 12%  
68 0.8% 8%  
69 2% 7% Last Result
70 2% 5%  
71 0.2% 3%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.1% 0.8%  
75 0.4% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 0.4% 98.7%  
32 0.1% 98%  
33 0.3% 98%  
34 3% 98%  
35 12% 94%  
36 16% 82%  
37 10% 67%  
38 2% 57%  
39 1.0% 54%  
40 6% 53% Median
41 14% 47%  
42 14% 33%  
43 11% 19%  
44 2% 8%  
45 0.3% 6%  
46 0.7% 6% Last Result
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 494 100% 484–504 481–505 479–507 474–512
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 449 100% 437–460 434–460 432–463 426–467
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 387 100% 375–397 372–399 370–402 364–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 379 99.7% 367–389 364–392 361–394 356–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 364 83% 351–372 348–375 346–379 340–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 345 17% 337–358 334–361 330–363 326–369
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 347 20% 336–358 333–361 330–363 326–368
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 317 0% 305–327 303–329 300–333 295–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 303 0% 291–309 287–313 284–316 279–321
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 284 0% 275–296 271–298 269–302 264–307
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 270 0% 259–281 256–282 254–285 249–292
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 160–178 159–182 156–184 151–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 169 0% 160–178 158–182 155–184 153–188

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 99.9%  
469 0.1% 99.9%  
470 0.1% 99.8%  
471 0% 99.7%  
472 0.1% 99.7%  
473 0.1% 99.6%  
474 0.3% 99.5%  
475 0.1% 99.2%  
476 0.4% 99.1%  
477 0.7% 98.7%  
478 0.3% 98%  
479 2% 98%  
480 0.4% 96%  
481 0.7% 95%  
482 1.3% 95%  
483 3% 94%  
484 6% 90%  
485 1.1% 85%  
486 3% 84%  
487 4% 81%  
488 3% 77%  
489 2% 74%  
490 8% 72%  
491 4% 64%  
492 4% 60%  
493 6% 56%  
494 4% 50%  
495 3% 46% Median
496 4% 43%  
497 2% 39%  
498 4% 36%  
499 8% 32%  
500 10% 24%  
501 1.3% 14%  
502 1.3% 13%  
503 1.4% 12%  
504 5% 10%  
505 1.1% 5%  
506 1.2% 4%  
507 1.0% 3%  
508 0.2% 2%  
509 0.6% 2%  
510 0.3% 1.1%  
511 0.1% 0.8%  
512 0.2% 0.7%  
513 0.2% 0.5%  
514 0.2% 0.3%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.9%  
425 0.2% 99.8%  
426 0.2% 99.5%  
427 0.4% 99.3%  
428 0.2% 99.0%  
429 0.4% 98.8%  
430 0.1% 98%  
431 0.7% 98%  
432 0.5% 98%  
433 2% 97%  
434 0.8% 95%  
435 3% 94%  
436 0.9% 92%  
437 5% 91%  
438 1.5% 86%  
439 2% 85%  
440 2% 83%  
441 8% 80%  
442 4% 73%  
443 3% 69%  
444 2% 66%  
445 5% 64%  
446 2% 60%  
447 3% 58%  
448 4% 55%  
449 8% 51% Median
450 3% 43%  
451 8% 41%  
452 8% 33%  
453 3% 25%  
454 5% 22%  
455 2% 17%  
456 2% 16%  
457 1.0% 14%  
458 2% 13%  
459 0.7% 11%  
460 6% 11%  
461 2% 5%  
462 0.2% 3%  
463 1.3% 3%  
464 0.6% 2%  
465 0.3% 1.1%  
466 0.2% 0.8%  
467 0.2% 0.7%  
468 0.1% 0.5%  
469 0.1% 0.4%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0.1% 0.2%  
472 0.1% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.2% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.3% 99.4%  
366 0.2% 99.1%  
367 0.7% 99.0%  
368 0.2% 98%  
369 0.4% 98%  
370 1.0% 98%  
371 1.3% 97%  
372 2% 95%  
373 0.6% 93%  
374 2% 92%  
375 0.8% 90%  
376 5% 90%  
377 2% 85%  
378 0.8% 83%  
379 4% 82%  
380 6% 78%  
381 6% 72%  
382 3% 66%  
383 1.5% 63%  
384 4% 61%  
385 4% 57%  
386 3% 53%  
387 6% 50% Median
388 10% 44%  
389 5% 34%  
390 2% 29%  
391 2% 26%  
392 2% 24%  
393 5% 22%  
394 1.2% 18%  
395 1.4% 16%  
396 0.8% 15%  
397 7% 14%  
398 2% 7%  
399 1.2% 5%  
400 1.2% 4%  
401 0.1% 3%  
402 0.9% 3%  
403 0.3% 2%  
404 0.2% 1.4%  
405 0.5% 1.2%  
406 0.3% 0.7%  
407 0.2% 0.4%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0.1% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.4% 99.6%  
357 0.1% 99.2%  
358 0.3% 99.1%  
359 0.1% 98.8%  
360 0.6% 98.7%  
361 0.8% 98%  
362 0.4% 97%  
363 1.3% 97%  
364 3% 96%  
365 0.7% 93%  
366 1.3% 92%  
367 3% 91%  
368 0.3% 88%  
369 3% 87%  
370 1.3% 84%  
371 3% 83%  
372 5% 80%  
373 3% 76%  
374 4% 72%  
375 2% 68%  
376 3% 67%  
377 6% 63%  
378 6% 57%  
379 1.4% 51%  
380 12% 49% Median
381 3% 37%  
382 2% 34%  
383 3% 32%  
384 3% 28%  
385 1.1% 25%  
386 10% 24%  
387 2% 14%  
388 0.5% 12%  
389 4% 12%  
390 2% 8%  
391 0.7% 6%  
392 1.5% 5%  
393 0.6% 4%  
394 1.3% 3%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.2% 1.4%  
397 0.5% 1.3%  
398 0.1% 0.8%  
399 0.2% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0.3% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.5%  
341 0.1% 99.4%  
342 0.2% 99.3%  
343 0.1% 99.2%  
344 0.5% 99.1%  
345 0.9% 98.6%  
346 0.8% 98%  
347 0.4% 97%  
348 2% 97%  
349 1.3% 95%  
350 0.2% 93%  
351 3% 93%  
352 4% 90%  
353 2% 86%  
354 1.1% 84%  
355 5% 83% Majority
356 4% 78%  
357 2% 74%  
358 3% 71%  
359 4% 68%  
360 0.6% 64%  
361 7% 63%  
362 3% 56%  
363 2% 53% Median
364 9% 51%  
365 3% 43%  
366 3% 39%  
367 10% 36%  
368 1.3% 27%  
369 3% 25%  
370 1.5% 22%  
371 8% 20%  
372 3% 12%  
373 3% 9%  
374 1.0% 7%  
375 0.7% 6%  
376 1.0% 5%  
377 1.0% 4%  
378 0.1% 3%  
379 0.7% 3%  
380 0.6% 2%  
381 0.2% 1.4%  
382 0.2% 1.2%  
383 0.5% 1.0%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0.2% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.2% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.5% 99.5%  
327 0.2% 99.0%  
328 0.2% 98.8%  
329 0.6% 98.6%  
330 0.7% 98%  
331 0.1% 97%  
332 1.0% 97%  
333 1.0% 96%  
334 0.7% 95%  
335 1.0% 94%  
336 3% 93%  
337 3% 91%  
338 8% 88%  
339 1.5% 80%  
340 3% 78%  
341 1.3% 75%  
342 10% 73%  
343 3% 64%  
344 3% 61%  
345 9% 57%  
346 2% 49% Median
347 3% 47%  
348 7% 44%  
349 0.6% 37%  
350 4% 36%  
351 3% 32%  
352 2% 29%  
353 4% 26%  
354 5% 22%  
355 1.1% 17% Majority
356 2% 16%  
357 4% 14%  
358 3% 10%  
359 0.2% 7%  
360 1.3% 7%  
361 2% 5%  
362 0.4% 3%  
363 0.8% 3%  
364 0.9% 2%  
365 0.5% 1.4%  
366 0.1% 0.9%  
367 0.2% 0.8%  
368 0.1% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.6%  
370 0.3% 0.5%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0.1% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.4% 99.5%  
327 0.3% 99.1%  
328 0.5% 98.8%  
329 0.1% 98%  
330 1.1% 98%  
331 0.7% 97%  
332 0.5% 96%  
333 0.9% 96%  
334 2% 95%  
335 3% 93%  
336 1.1% 90%  
337 3% 89%  
338 7% 86%  
339 1.2% 80%  
340 4% 78%  
341 2% 75%  
342 7% 73%  
343 2% 66%  
344 5% 64%  
345 2% 59%  
346 5% 57%  
347 6% 52% Median
348 5% 46%  
349 0.8% 41%  
350 7% 40%  
351 6% 33%  
352 1.4% 27%  
353 5% 26%  
354 0.7% 21%  
355 6% 20% Majority
356 0.5% 15%  
357 3% 14%  
358 2% 11%  
359 4% 10%  
360 0.7% 6%  
361 0.6% 5%  
362 2% 4%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.6% 2%  
365 0.3% 2%  
366 0.4% 1.3%  
367 0.1% 0.9%  
368 0.3% 0.8%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.6% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.0%  
297 0.6% 98.9%  
298 0.1% 98%  
299 0.5% 98%  
300 0.4% 98%  
301 0.3% 97%  
302 1.2% 97%  
303 3% 96%  
304 1.3% 92%  
305 3% 91%  
306 4% 88%  
307 2% 85%  
308 2% 82%  
309 2% 80%  
310 1.4% 78%  
311 4% 77%  
312 2% 73%  
313 3% 72%  
314 3% 68%  
315 5% 65%  
316 5% 60%  
317 14% 55%  
318 2% 40% Median
319 5% 39%  
320 0.7% 34%  
321 2% 33%  
322 4% 31%  
323 3% 27%  
324 6% 24%  
325 5% 18%  
326 2% 13%  
327 4% 11%  
328 2% 7%  
329 1.4% 6%  
330 0.8% 4%  
331 0.4% 3%  
332 0.2% 3%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 0.8% 2%  
336 0.3% 1.4%  
337 0.6% 1.1%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.2% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0.1% 100%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.2% 99.8%  
279 0.4% 99.6%  
280 0.2% 99.2%  
281 0% 99.0%  
282 0.3% 99.0%  
283 0.7% 98.7%  
284 0.6% 98%  
285 0.1% 97%  
286 1.1% 97%  
287 2% 96%  
288 2% 95%  
289 0.1% 93%  
290 2% 93%  
291 7% 91%  
292 5% 84%  
293 0.3% 79%  
294 2% 78%  
295 7% 77%  
296 2% 69%  
297 0.8% 67%  
298 0.6% 66%  
299 7% 65%  
300 3% 59%  
301 2% 56% Median
302 1.1% 54%  
303 16% 52%  
304 8% 37%  
305 0.3% 29%  
306 0.4% 28%  
307 5% 28%  
308 12% 23%  
309 2% 11%  
310 0.2% 9%  
311 2% 9%  
312 2% 7%  
313 0.6% 5%  
314 0.1% 5%  
315 1.3% 5%  
316 1.0% 3%  
317 0.2% 2%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.7% 2%  
321 0.4% 0.9%  
322 0% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.2% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.3% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.5%  
265 0.5% 99.4%  
266 0.3% 98.9%  
267 0.2% 98.6%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.8% 98%  
270 0.9% 97%  
271 2% 97%  
272 0.7% 95%  
273 0.4% 94%  
274 0.7% 94%  
275 7% 93%  
276 5% 86%  
277 1.4% 81%  
278 5% 80%  
279 2% 75%  
280 1.3% 73%  
281 7% 72%  
282 2% 64%  
283 7% 62%  
284 8% 55%  
285 3% 47% Median
286 3% 44%  
287 3% 41%  
288 1.0% 38%  
289 11% 37%  
290 3% 26%  
291 1.1% 23%  
292 1.2% 22%  
293 0.8% 21%  
294 6% 20%  
295 1.2% 14%  
296 5% 13%  
297 2% 7%  
298 1.3% 6%  
299 0.1% 4%  
300 0.6% 4%  
301 0.7% 3%  
302 2% 3%  
303 0.2% 1.2%  
304 0.1% 1.0%  
305 0.3% 1.0%  
306 0.1% 0.7%  
307 0.3% 0.6%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.8%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0.2% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.5%  
250 0.2% 99.5%  
251 0.3% 99.3%  
252 0.3% 99.0%  
253 1.0% 98.7%  
254 0.2% 98%  
255 0.5% 97%  
256 4% 97%  
257 0.8% 93%  
258 2% 93%  
259 2% 90%  
260 0.9% 88%  
261 2% 87%  
262 2% 85%  
263 3% 83%  
264 2% 80%  
265 2% 78%  
266 5% 76%  
267 4% 71%  
268 5% 66%  
269 4% 61%  
270 8% 57%  
271 4% 49%  
272 2% 45% Median
273 9% 44%  
274 2% 34%  
275 3% 32%  
276 3% 30%  
277 2% 27%  
278 11% 25%  
279 0.9% 14%  
280 2% 13%  
281 4% 11%  
282 2% 7%  
283 1.4% 5%  
284 0.3% 3%  
285 0.8% 3%  
286 0.4% 2%  
287 0.3% 2%  
288 0.5% 2%  
289 0.3% 1.2%  
290 0.1% 0.9%  
291 0.2% 0.8%  
292 0.2% 0.5%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.4% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.4%  
153 0.3% 99.3%  
154 0.4% 99.0%  
155 0.2% 98.6%  
156 1.0% 98%  
157 0.4% 97%  
158 2% 97%  
159 0.5% 95%  
160 6% 95%  
161 2% 88%  
162 4% 86%  
163 4% 83%  
164 1.5% 79%  
165 9% 77%  
166 2% 69%  
167 8% 67%  
168 4% 59%  
169 10% 55% Median
170 3% 45%  
171 3% 42%  
172 9% 39%  
173 2% 30%  
174 4% 28%  
175 3% 23%  
176 3% 20%  
177 6% 17%  
178 2% 12%  
179 2% 10%  
180 0.5% 8%  
181 1.4% 7%  
182 1.1% 6%  
183 0.8% 5%  
184 2% 4%  
185 0.2% 2%  
186 1.3% 2%  
187 0.1% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.6%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0.1% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 1.1% 99.5%  
154 0.2% 98%  
155 0.8% 98%  
156 0.8% 97%  
157 0.6% 97%  
158 1.3% 96%  
159 1.1% 95%  
160 4% 94%  
161 1.1% 90%  
162 6% 89%  
163 2% 83%  
164 2% 81%  
165 12% 79%  
166 2% 68%  
167 7% 66%  
168 4% 59%  
169 7% 55%  
170 1.2% 48% Median
171 5% 47%  
172 3% 42%  
173 5% 39%  
174 9% 34%  
175 8% 26%  
176 2% 18%  
177 3% 16%  
178 3% 13%  
179 1.2% 10%  
180 2% 9%  
181 1.0% 7%  
182 2% 6%  
183 1.2% 4%  
184 0.8% 3%  
185 0.4% 2%  
186 0.4% 2%  
187 0.5% 1.3%  
188 0.3% 0.7%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations