Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 11–14 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.0% 21.3–24.3% 21.0–24.6% 20.4–25.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.5% 20.4–22.7% 20.0–23.0% 19.8–23.3% 19.2–23.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.4–6.3% 4.1–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 172 164–179 161–182 158–184 153–190
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 162 153–170 151–172 149–176 145–179
Alternative für Deutschland 94 113 106–120 104–122 102–125 99–128
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 105 97–113 96–115 94–117 91–120
Die Linke 69 61 55–66 53–68 52–69 50–72
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 57 52–62 49–64 48–66 46–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 35–44 34–47 33–48 31–49

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0.1% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.4% 99.8%  
154 0% 99.4%  
155 0.6% 99.4%  
156 0.5% 98.8%  
157 0.1% 98%  
158 1.3% 98%  
159 1.1% 97%  
160 0.3% 96%  
161 3% 95%  
162 1.3% 92%  
163 0.6% 91%  
164 5% 90%  
165 1.2% 85%  
166 2% 84%  
167 10% 82%  
168 0.8% 72%  
169 9% 71%  
170 8% 63%  
171 0.9% 54%  
172 8% 53% Median
173 9% 45%  
174 2% 36%  
175 7% 34%  
176 5% 27%  
177 0.3% 21%  
178 5% 21%  
179 8% 16%  
180 0.3% 8%  
181 3% 8%  
182 1.1% 5%  
183 0.2% 4%  
184 2% 4%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.2% 2%  
187 0.7% 2%  
188 0.1% 0.9%  
189 0.1% 0.8%  
190 0.4% 0.7%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.2% 99.4%  
147 0.6% 99.2%  
148 0.9% 98.6%  
149 0.7% 98%  
150 1.2% 97%  
151 1.4% 96%  
152 2% 94%  
153 7% 93%  
154 1.1% 86%  
155 2% 85%  
156 7% 83%  
157 3% 76%  
158 3% 72%  
159 5% 69%  
160 3% 64%  
161 7% 61%  
162 11% 53% Median
163 6% 42%  
164 7% 37%  
165 2% 29%  
166 5% 27%  
167 3% 22%  
168 2% 18%  
169 2% 16%  
170 4% 14%  
171 3% 10%  
172 2% 7%  
173 1.3% 5%  
174 0.6% 4%  
175 0.4% 3%  
176 1.5% 3%  
177 0.3% 1.1%  
178 0.1% 0.8%  
179 0.3% 0.7%  
180 0.1% 0.5%  
181 0.2% 0.4%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.5% 99.6%  
100 0.3% 99.1%  
101 0.1% 98.7%  
102 3% 98.6%  
103 0.6% 96%  
104 3% 96%  
105 2% 93%  
106 2% 90%  
107 4% 88%  
108 2% 83%  
109 5% 82%  
110 5% 77%  
111 3% 72%  
112 16% 69%  
113 4% 53% Median
114 5% 49%  
115 10% 44%  
116 2% 34%  
117 13% 32%  
118 3% 19%  
119 4% 16%  
120 5% 13%  
121 0.8% 7%  
122 2% 7%  
123 0.6% 4%  
124 1.2% 4%  
125 0.9% 3%  
126 0.3% 2%  
127 0.7% 1.4%  
128 0.2% 0.7%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.8%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.5% 99.7%  
92 0.1% 99.2%  
93 0.8% 99.1%  
94 0.9% 98%  
95 0.4% 97%  
96 5% 97%  
97 3% 92%  
98 1.0% 89%  
99 3% 88%  
100 5% 85%  
101 3% 80%  
102 12% 77%  
103 7% 65%  
104 3% 59%  
105 12% 56% Median
106 3% 44%  
107 6% 41%  
108 4% 35%  
109 8% 31%  
110 6% 23%  
111 4% 17%  
112 3% 13%  
113 4% 10%  
114 1.2% 6%  
115 0.7% 5%  
116 2% 4%  
117 0.3% 3%  
118 1.1% 2%  
119 0.7% 1.3%  
120 0.2% 0.6%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.6%  
51 0.9% 98.9%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 3% 94%  
55 7% 91%  
56 5% 84%  
57 8% 79%  
58 6% 71%  
59 4% 65%  
60 5% 61%  
61 17% 56% Median
62 9% 39%  
63 9% 31%  
64 4% 22%  
65 4% 18%  
66 4% 13%  
67 4% 10%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 4% Last Result
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.7% 1.5%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 99.1%  
48 2% 98%  
49 1.1% 96%  
50 1.4% 95%  
51 1.4% 94%  
52 11% 92%  
53 10% 81%  
54 6% 71%  
55 6% 65%  
56 3% 59%  
57 7% 56% Median
58 5% 49%  
59 16% 43%  
60 11% 27%  
61 5% 16%  
62 3% 11%  
63 0.7% 8%  
64 2% 7%  
65 2% 5%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.8%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.6%  
32 0.5% 99.1%  
33 3% 98.6%  
34 1.2% 95%  
35 10% 94%  
36 1.2% 84%  
37 5% 83%  
38 10% 78%  
39 18% 68% Median
40 8% 50%  
41 4% 42%  
42 8% 39%  
43 2% 31%  
44 20% 28%  
45 0.8% 8%  
46 2% 7% Last Result
47 2% 5%  
48 1.0% 3%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.1% 0.5%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 478 100% 470–488 467–489 464–493 459–497
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 430 100% 422–439 419–443 415–445 410–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 382 100% 371–391 369–393 366–397 360–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 374 99.1% 363–383 359–386 357–390 353–395
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 373 98.7% 364–382 360–384 357–388 351–394
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 327 0% 318–338 316–340 312–343 307–349
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 326 0% 314–335 312–338 309–340 304–346
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 323 0% 314–335 311–337 309–340 303–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 317 0% 307–326 304–329 301–332 296–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 269 0% 257–277 255–280 253–285 249–288
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 266 0% 258–277 254–280 252–282 248–288
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 157–174 154–176 153–179 149–184
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 162 0% 154–171 151–174 150–175 146–181

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0.2% 99.9%  
456 0% 99.8%  
457 0.1% 99.7%  
458 0.1% 99.7%  
459 0.3% 99.5%  
460 0.4% 99.2%  
461 0.3% 98.8%  
462 0.5% 98.5%  
463 0.4% 98%  
464 0.4% 98%  
465 0.8% 97%  
466 0.9% 96% Last Result
467 1.0% 96%  
468 1.3% 95%  
469 2% 93%  
470 2% 91%  
471 1.0% 89%  
472 6% 88%  
473 4% 82%  
474 7% 78%  
475 6% 71%  
476 3% 65%  
477 9% 62%  
478 5% 54% Median
479 4% 48%  
480 3% 44%  
481 6% 41%  
482 8% 35%  
483 3% 27%  
484 5% 24%  
485 2% 18%  
486 3% 16%  
487 2% 13%  
488 2% 10%  
489 3% 8%  
490 0.7% 5%  
491 1.3% 4%  
492 0.4% 3%  
493 1.0% 3%  
494 0.3% 2%  
495 0.5% 1.3%  
496 0.1% 0.8%  
497 0.2% 0.7%  
498 0.1% 0.5%  
499 0.1% 0.4%  
500 0.1% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.2%  
502 0.1% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.2% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.1% 99.6%  
410 0.4% 99.5%  
411 0.1% 99.2%  
412 0.2% 99.0%  
413 0.4% 98.9%  
414 1.0% 98.5%  
415 0.7% 98%  
416 0.4% 97%  
417 0.8% 96%  
418 0.2% 96%  
419 2% 95%  
420 2% 94%  
421 1.2% 91%  
422 4% 90%  
423 3% 86%  
424 2% 83%  
425 3% 81%  
426 11% 78%  
427 3% 67%  
428 3% 63%  
429 7% 60%  
430 11% 53% Median
431 2% 42%  
432 2% 40%  
433 2% 38%  
434 12% 36%  
435 4% 24%  
436 2% 20%  
437 3% 18%  
438 4% 15%  
439 3% 11%  
440 0.7% 8%  
441 0.7% 7%  
442 0.6% 6%  
443 2% 6%  
444 0.7% 4%  
445 0.5% 3%  
446 1.0% 2%  
447 0.3% 1.4%  
448 0.2% 1.1%  
449 0.1% 0.9%  
450 0.3% 0.8%  
451 0.2% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.3%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0.1% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.7%  
360 0.3% 99.7%  
361 0.2% 99.4%  
362 0.2% 99.2%  
363 0.1% 98.9%  
364 0.2% 98.8%  
365 1.2% 98.7%  
366 0.6% 98%  
367 0.2% 97%  
368 0.5% 97%  
369 2% 96%  
370 2% 94%  
371 3% 93%  
372 2% 89%  
373 8% 88%  
374 2% 80%  
375 0.8% 78%  
376 2% 78%  
377 7% 76%  
378 2% 69%  
379 1.4% 67%  
380 2% 66%  
381 5% 64% Median
382 12% 59%  
383 0.4% 48%  
384 12% 47%  
385 3% 35%  
386 5% 32%  
387 2% 28%  
388 11% 26%  
389 4% 15%  
390 0.8% 11%  
391 0.7% 11%  
392 3% 10%  
393 2% 7%  
394 0.4% 5%  
395 0.3% 4%  
396 1.0% 4%  
397 0.7% 3%  
398 0.8% 2%  
399 0.2% 2%  
400 0.7% 1.4%  
401 0.1% 0.8%  
402 0.3% 0.6%  
403 0% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
348 0% 100%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.8%  
353 0.3% 99.7%  
354 0.4% 99.4%  
355 0.2% 99.1% Majority
356 1.2% 98.8%  
357 0.9% 98%  
358 0.9% 97%  
359 1.3% 96%  
360 1.2% 95%  
361 0.9% 93%  
362 1.1% 92%  
363 2% 91%  
364 3% 90%  
365 0.8% 87%  
366 2% 86%  
367 8% 85%  
368 1.2% 77%  
369 1.5% 75%  
370 3% 74%  
371 5% 71%  
372 3% 66%  
373 6% 63% Median
374 14% 58%  
375 3% 44%  
376 5% 41%  
377 5% 36%  
378 6% 31%  
379 6% 25%  
380 2% 18%  
381 3% 16%  
382 3% 14%  
383 2% 11%  
384 1.5% 9%  
385 2% 7%  
386 1.0% 6%  
387 0.4% 5%  
388 1.0% 4%  
389 0.4% 3%  
390 0.3% 3%  
391 0.7% 2%  
392 0.6% 2%  
393 0.1% 1.1%  
394 0.4% 1.0%  
395 0.2% 0.6%  
396 0.2% 0.4%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0.1% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.2% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.2% 99.7%  
352 0.2% 99.5%  
353 0.1% 99.2%  
354 0.4% 99.2%  
355 0.6% 98.7% Majority
356 0.6% 98%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 0.9% 97%  
359 0.2% 96%  
360 1.3% 96%  
361 0.8% 95%  
362 0.5% 94%  
363 0.8% 93%  
364 3% 92%  
365 1.3% 90%  
366 2% 88%  
367 2% 86%  
368 1.4% 84%  
369 6% 83%  
370 10% 76%  
371 3% 67%  
372 5% 64%  
373 9% 59% Median
374 2% 49%  
375 11% 47%  
376 7% 36%  
377 7% 29%  
378 4% 22%  
379 4% 18%  
380 1.3% 14%  
381 0.9% 13%  
382 3% 12%  
383 1.3% 9%  
384 3% 8%  
385 1.2% 5%  
386 0.5% 4%  
387 0.3% 3%  
388 0.6% 3%  
389 0.3% 2%  
390 0.5% 2%  
391 0.3% 1.4%  
392 0.2% 1.1%  
393 0.2% 0.9%  
394 0.3% 0.7%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.7%  
307 0.3% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.4%  
309 0.7% 99.2%  
310 0.2% 98.6%  
311 0.8% 98%  
312 0.7% 98%  
313 1.0% 97%  
314 0.3% 96%  
315 0.4% 96%  
316 2% 95%  
317 3% 93%  
318 0.7% 90%  
319 0.8% 89%  
320 4% 89%  
321 11% 85%  
322 2% 74%  
323 5% 72%  
324 3% 68%  
325 12% 65%  
326 0.4% 53%  
327 12% 52%  
328 5% 41% Median
329 2% 36%  
330 1.4% 34%  
331 2% 33%  
332 7% 31%  
333 2% 24%  
334 0.8% 22%  
335 2% 22%  
336 8% 20%  
337 2% 12%  
338 3% 11%  
339 2% 7%  
340 2% 6%  
341 0.5% 4%  
342 0.2% 3%  
343 0.6% 3%  
344 1.2% 2%  
345 0.2% 1.3%  
346 0.1% 1.2%  
347 0.2% 1.1%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.3% 0.6%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0.2% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.2% 99.6%  
305 0.2% 99.4%  
306 0.9% 99.2%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 0.4% 98%  
309 1.1% 98%  
310 0.3% 97%  
311 0.5% 96%  
312 2% 96%  
313 3% 94%  
314 3% 91%  
315 1.3% 89%  
316 4% 88%  
317 3% 84%  
318 3% 81%  
319 2% 78%  
320 5% 77%  
321 4% 72%  
322 4% 68%  
323 2% 64%  
324 2% 62% Median
325 9% 60%  
326 6% 51%  
327 4% 45%  
328 2% 41%  
329 12% 39%  
330 3% 26%  
331 6% 24%  
332 5% 18%  
333 2% 13%  
334 0.9% 11%  
335 2% 10%  
336 0.5% 8%  
337 2% 7%  
338 1.0% 6%  
339 0.4% 5%  
340 2% 4% Last Result
341 0.3% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.6% 1.3%  
344 0.1% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0.3% 0.5%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9% Last Result
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0.3% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.5%  
304 0.2% 99.5%  
305 0.4% 99.3%  
306 0.5% 98.9%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 0.3% 98%  
309 0.5% 98%  
310 1.1% 97%  
311 2% 96%  
312 0.4% 95%  
313 3% 94%  
314 2% 92%  
315 7% 90%  
316 1.3% 82%  
317 0.9% 81%  
318 7% 80%  
319 8% 74%  
320 3% 65%  
321 2% 62%  
322 6% 60%  
323 10% 54%  
324 2% 44% Median
325 3% 42%  
326 6% 39%  
327 5% 33%  
328 2% 29%  
329 4% 27%  
330 3% 23%  
331 4% 21%  
332 2% 17%  
333 0.9% 14%  
334 2% 13%  
335 5% 11%  
336 1.1% 6%  
337 0.5% 5%  
338 1.0% 5%  
339 1.2% 4%  
340 0.9% 3%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.2% 1.3%  
343 0.2% 1.2%  
344 0.4% 0.9%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0% 0.4%  
347 0.2% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.4% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.2%  
298 0.4% 99.2%  
299 0.3% 98.8%  
300 0.2% 98.5%  
301 1.3% 98%  
302 0.9% 97%  
303 1.0% 96%  
304 0.8% 95%  
305 1.4% 94%  
306 2% 93%  
307 1.3% 91%  
308 6% 90%  
309 3% 84%  
310 4% 81%  
311 2% 77%  
312 4% 75%  
313 0.8% 71%  
314 7% 70%  
315 9% 63%  
316 3% 54% Median
317 4% 50%  
318 3% 46%  
319 5% 43%  
320 1.3% 38%  
321 9% 37%  
322 4% 28%  
323 4% 24%  
324 3% 20%  
325 1.0% 17%  
326 7% 16%  
327 1.3% 9%  
328 2% 8%  
329 2% 7%  
330 0.6% 5%  
331 1.3% 4%  
332 0.8% 3%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 0.5% 1.5%  
336 0.3% 0.9%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.2% 0.4%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.2% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0.2% 99.6%  
250 0.5% 99.5%  
251 0.6% 98.9%  
252 0.7% 98%  
253 0.8% 98%  
254 1.4% 97%  
255 1.3% 96%  
256 2% 94%  
257 2% 92%  
258 1.2% 89%  
259 1.1% 88%  
260 0.9% 87%  
261 0.6% 86%  
262 2% 86%  
263 5% 84%  
264 4% 79%  
265 3% 75%  
266 5% 72%  
267 4% 68%  
268 6% 64% Median
269 10% 58%  
270 6% 48%  
271 8% 42%  
272 12% 34%  
273 6% 21%  
274 2% 15%  
275 1.3% 12%  
276 1.1% 11%  
277 0.4% 10%  
278 1.0% 10%  
279 3% 9%  
280 1.3% 6%  
281 0.3% 5%  
282 0.5% 5%  
283 0.8% 4%  
284 0.3% 3%  
285 0.9% 3%  
286 0.9% 2%  
287 0.1% 1.0%  
288 0.4% 0.9%  
289 0.3% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.2%  
291 0.1% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.2% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.6%  
248 0.4% 99.5%  
249 0.2% 99.1%  
250 0.7% 98.9%  
251 0.4% 98%  
252 0.5% 98%  
253 0.8% 97%  
254 2% 96%  
255 1.3% 95%  
256 0.6% 93%  
257 1.3% 93%  
258 6% 92%  
259 1.4% 86%  
260 5% 85%  
261 4% 80%  
262 2% 76%  
263 4% 73%  
264 9% 70%  
265 8% 61%  
266 7% 53%  
267 5% 46% Median
268 2% 41%  
269 4% 39%  
270 7% 35%  
271 2% 28%  
272 4% 27%  
273 4% 23%  
274 2% 20%  
275 4% 18%  
276 3% 14%  
277 1.4% 11%  
278 1.4% 9%  
279 2% 8%  
280 3% 6%  
281 0.4% 3%  
282 0.6% 3%  
283 0.6% 2%  
284 0.3% 2%  
285 0.2% 1.3%  
286 0.3% 1.1%  
287 0.2% 0.8%  
288 0.2% 0.5%  
289 0.1% 0.3%  
290 0.1% 0.2%  
291 0.1% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.3% 99.8%  
149 0.3% 99.5%  
150 0.2% 99.2%  
151 0.9% 99.0%  
152 0.4% 98%  
153 1.0% 98%  
154 2% 97%  
155 0.9% 95%  
156 2% 94%  
157 7% 92%  
158 1.3% 85%  
159 4% 84%  
160 4% 80%  
161 2% 76%  
162 7% 74%  
163 8% 67%  
164 3% 58%  
165 4% 56%  
166 5% 52% Median
167 3% 47%  
168 11% 44%  
169 5% 33%  
170 3% 28%  
171 7% 25%  
172 2% 18%  
173 2% 16%  
174 4% 14%  
175 4% 10%  
176 1.0% 6%  
177 0.9% 5%  
178 0.8% 4%  
179 0.8% 3%  
180 1.2% 2%  
181 0.3% 1.2%  
182 0.3% 0.9%  
183 0.1% 0.6%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.4%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.7%  
145 0.1% 99.7%  
146 0.5% 99.6%  
147 0.3% 99.1%  
148 0.2% 98.8%  
149 0.8% 98.6%  
150 1.0% 98%  
151 2% 97%  
152 2% 95%  
153 0.8% 93%  
154 3% 92%  
155 9% 90%  
156 4% 80%  
157 2% 76%  
158 3% 74%  
159 4% 71%  
160 3% 66%  
161 10% 64%  
162 13% 53% Median
163 2% 40%  
164 3% 38%  
165 10% 35%  
166 3% 25%  
167 2% 22%  
168 3% 20%  
169 4% 17%  
170 2% 13%  
171 3% 11%  
172 2% 8%  
173 0.3% 6%  
174 0.5% 5%  
175 3% 5%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.3% 2%  
178 0.3% 1.3%  
179 0.3% 1.0%  
180 0.1% 0.7%  
181 0.2% 0.6%  
182 0.2% 0.4%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0.1% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations