Opinion Poll by Forsa, 14–18 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 21.0–23.1% 20.7–23.4% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.9–23.0% 20.6–23.4% 20.4–23.6% 19.9–24.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.1–14.9% 12.9–15.2% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.2–13.9% 11.9–14.2% 11.7–14.4% 11.3–14.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.7% 7.1–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.7% 7.1–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.5–5.7% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 168 165–179 157–180 155–181 153–182
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 167 162–174 161–177 159–180 155–186
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 109 100–115 100–116 97–118 94–122
Alternative für Deutschland 94 101 93–107 92–108 90–112 88–113
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 61 56–67 55–69 55–70 51–73
Die Linke 69 63 58–67 56–68 55–69 51–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 34–44 34–45 33–45 31–48

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0.1% 100%  
153 0.7% 99.9%  
154 0.6% 99.2%  
155 1.3% 98.5%  
156 2% 97%  
157 0.4% 95%  
158 0.1% 95%  
159 0.1% 95%  
160 0% 95%  
161 0% 94%  
162 0.1% 94%  
163 0.4% 94%  
164 3% 94%  
165 8% 91%  
166 12% 83%  
167 16% 71%  
168 22% 55% Median
169 5% 33%  
170 5% 28%  
171 2% 23%  
172 0.1% 21%  
173 0% 21%  
174 0% 21%  
175 0.1% 21%  
176 1.5% 21%  
177 1.4% 20%  
178 5% 18%  
179 5% 13%  
180 5% 8%  
181 2% 3%  
182 1.2% 2%  
183 0.2% 0.4%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.1% 99.5%  
156 0.2% 99.5%  
157 0.4% 99.3%  
158 0.6% 98.9%  
159 2% 98%  
160 0.7% 96%  
161 2% 96%  
162 4% 93%  
163 6% 90%  
164 6% 84%  
165 8% 77%  
166 5% 69%  
167 16% 64% Median
168 8% 48%  
169 8% 39%  
170 7% 32%  
171 6% 25%  
172 4% 19%  
173 3% 15%  
174 4% 12%  
175 0.6% 7%  
176 2% 7%  
177 1.1% 5%  
178 0.4% 4%  
179 1.0% 4%  
180 0.2% 3%  
181 0.5% 2%  
182 0.2% 2%  
183 0.3% 2%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.2% 1.0%  
186 0.5% 0.8%  
187 0% 0.4%  
188 0.2% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.7%  
95 0.2% 99.3%  
96 0.4% 99.1%  
97 1.4% 98.7%  
98 0.2% 97%  
99 0.5% 97%  
100 7% 97%  
101 1.5% 90%  
102 2% 88%  
103 11% 86%  
104 2% 75%  
105 2% 73%  
106 9% 71%  
107 5% 62%  
108 4% 57%  
109 20% 53% Median
110 6% 33%  
111 2% 27%  
112 6% 24%  
113 2% 19%  
114 1.1% 17%  
115 8% 16%  
116 4% 8%  
117 0.5% 5%  
118 2% 4%  
119 0.8% 2%  
120 0.1% 1.3%  
121 0.4% 1.3%  
122 0.6% 0.9%  
123 0% 0.3%  
124 0.2% 0.3%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.8%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.6% 99.6%  
89 1.0% 99.0%  
90 0.6% 98%  
91 0.9% 97%  
92 2% 96%  
93 5% 94%  
94 5% 89% Last Result
95 2% 84%  
96 3% 82%  
97 6% 79%  
98 11% 74%  
99 7% 63%  
100 1.4% 56%  
101 5% 55% Median
102 18% 50%  
103 8% 31%  
104 9% 23%  
105 1.1% 14%  
106 1.0% 13%  
107 4% 12%  
108 4% 9%  
109 0.7% 5%  
110 0.2% 4%  
111 0.9% 4%  
112 2% 3%  
113 0.4% 0.7%  
114 0.1% 0.4%  
115 0% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 0.3% 99.5%  
53 0.4% 99.1%  
54 0.3% 98.8%  
55 4% 98%  
56 7% 95%  
57 3% 88%  
58 2% 85%  
59 6% 83%  
60 18% 77%  
61 10% 59% Median
62 5% 49%  
63 10% 44%  
64 5% 34%  
65 13% 29%  
66 5% 16%  
67 2% 11%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 7%  
70 3% 5%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.3% 1.1%  
73 0.5% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.4%  
53 0.5% 99.3%  
54 0.3% 98.7%  
55 2% 98%  
56 2% 96%  
57 4% 94%  
58 2% 91%  
59 13% 89%  
60 3% 76%  
61 11% 72%  
62 7% 61%  
63 25% 54% Median
64 3% 29%  
65 13% 26%  
66 2% 13%  
67 5% 11%  
68 1.5% 6%  
69 3% 5% Last Result
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 99.7%  
32 1.3% 99.1%  
33 1.3% 98%  
34 7% 97%  
35 3% 90%  
36 9% 87%  
37 5% 78%  
38 8% 72%  
39 5% 64%  
40 22% 60% Median
41 8% 37%  
42 11% 29%  
43 8% 18%  
44 5% 11%  
45 3% 6%  
46 1.1% 2% Last Result
47 0.5% 1.2%  
48 0.3% 0.7%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 484 100% 478–493 474–494 472–496 469–502
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 439 100% 430–448 427–450 425–452 421–457
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 377 99.9% 368–387 364–389 363–391 359–395
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 375 99.9% 369–385 365–388 363–390 361–395
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 369 98% 360–378 357–382 355–383 350–387
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 337 3% 331–350 328–351 326–355 321–358
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 340 2% 331–349 327–352 326–354 322–359
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 316 0% 305–326 303–326 302–328 300–333
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 309 0% 297–315 296–318 295–321 292–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 277 0% 268–286 267–289 263–294 259–296
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 269 0% 260–278 258–280 255–283 252–289
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 169 0% 162–178 160–181 158–183 154–186
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 171 0% 162–178 161–180 158–182 155–186

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
463 0% 100%  
464 0% 99.9%  
465 0% 99.9%  
466 0% 99.9% Last Result
467 0.1% 99.9%  
468 0.1% 99.8%  
469 0.3% 99.7%  
470 0.4% 99.4%  
471 1.1% 98.9%  
472 0.5% 98%  
473 0.9% 97%  
474 2% 96%  
475 2% 94%  
476 1.0% 93%  
477 1.2% 92%  
478 2% 90%  
479 4% 88%  
480 10% 84%  
481 7% 74%  
482 5% 68%  
483 7% 63%  
484 17% 56% Median
485 4% 40%  
486 3% 36%  
487 0.7% 33%  
488 4% 32%  
489 7% 28%  
490 2% 22%  
491 4% 19%  
492 4% 15%  
493 5% 12%  
494 2% 7%  
495 1.2% 4%  
496 0.7% 3%  
497 0.5% 2%  
498 0.6% 2%  
499 0.3% 1.2%  
500 0.2% 0.9%  
501 0.1% 0.7%  
502 0.2% 0.6%  
503 0.1% 0.4%  
504 0.1% 0.3%  
505 0.1% 0.2%  
506 0.1% 0.1%  
507 0.1% 0.1%  
508 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0.1% 100%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0.3% 99.7%  
422 0.1% 99.3%  
423 0.4% 99.2%  
424 0.6% 98.8%  
425 2% 98%  
426 1.1% 97%  
427 0.6% 96%  
428 0.8% 95%  
429 3% 94%  
430 3% 92%  
431 5% 89%  
432 1.1% 84%  
433 4% 83%  
434 3% 79%  
435 15% 76%  
436 4% 61% Median
437 2% 57%  
438 4% 55%  
439 9% 51%  
440 8% 42%  
441 3% 34%  
442 2% 31%  
443 4% 28%  
444 4% 24%  
445 7% 20%  
446 1.1% 13%  
447 2% 12%  
448 3% 10%  
449 2% 7%  
450 0.7% 5%  
451 0.8% 4%  
452 1.1% 4%  
453 0.7% 2%  
454 0.6% 2%  
455 0.4% 1.1%  
456 0.2% 0.7%  
457 0.2% 0.6%  
458 0.1% 0.3%  
459 0.1% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0.2% 99.8%  
359 0.2% 99.6%  
360 0.2% 99.4%  
361 0.3% 99.2%  
362 1.0% 98.8%  
363 1.1% 98%  
364 2% 97%  
365 0.8% 95%  
366 2% 94%  
367 0.8% 92%  
368 1.3% 91%  
369 3% 90%  
370 3% 87%  
371 3% 85%  
372 1.1% 82%  
373 4% 80%  
374 4% 76%  
375 3% 72%  
376 15% 70%  
377 10% 55% Median
378 6% 45%  
379 5% 39%  
380 6% 34%  
381 2% 29%  
382 6% 27%  
383 2% 21%  
384 5% 19%  
385 2% 14%  
386 1.0% 12%  
387 3% 11%  
388 3% 8%  
389 2% 5%  
390 0.5% 4%  
391 1.4% 3%  
392 0.4% 2%  
393 0.5% 2%  
394 0.2% 1.0%  
395 0.3% 0.8%  
396 0.2% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0.1% 99.6%  
361 0.3% 99.6%  
362 1.1% 99.2%  
363 0.7% 98%  
364 0.8% 97%  
365 2% 97%  
366 0.9% 95%  
367 0.6% 94%  
368 3% 93%  
369 3% 90%  
370 6% 87%  
371 4% 82%  
372 2% 78%  
373 2% 76%  
374 9% 74%  
375 16% 65% Median
376 6% 49%  
377 8% 43%  
378 3% 35%  
379 0.8% 33%  
380 4% 32%  
381 3% 28%  
382 7% 25%  
383 5% 18%  
384 3% 13%  
385 1.2% 11%  
386 1.0% 9%  
387 3% 8%  
388 1.2% 5%  
389 0.9% 4%  
390 1.3% 3%  
391 0.3% 2%  
392 0.6% 2%  
393 0.2% 1.2%  
394 0.4% 1.0%  
395 0.2% 0.7%  
396 0.2% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.2% 99.9%  
350 0.4% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.3%  
352 0.3% 99.2%  
353 0.2% 99.0%  
354 0.7% 98.7%  
355 0.8% 98% Majority
356 1.2% 97%  
357 2% 96%  
358 2% 94%  
359 1.1% 93%  
360 4% 92%  
361 2% 88%  
362 0.9% 86%  
363 5% 85%  
364 4% 79%  
365 3% 76%  
366 3% 72%  
367 5% 69%  
368 2% 65%  
369 17% 63% Median
370 3% 46%  
371 2% 43%  
372 8% 41%  
373 0.9% 33%  
374 4% 32%  
375 5% 28%  
376 2% 23%  
377 4% 21%  
378 9% 17%  
379 0.7% 8%  
380 1.4% 7%  
381 1.1% 6%  
382 1.2% 5%  
383 2% 4%  
384 0.4% 2%  
385 0.4% 2%  
386 0.2% 1.3%  
387 0.6% 1.1%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.2% 99.8%  
319 0% 99.7%  
320 0.1% 99.6%  
321 0.1% 99.5%  
322 0.3% 99.5%  
323 0.7% 99.2%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.3% 98%  
326 0.6% 98%  
327 2% 97%  
328 1.4% 96%  
329 1.1% 94%  
330 0.8% 93%  
331 5% 92%  
332 9% 87%  
333 5% 78%  
334 0.9% 74%  
335 5% 73%  
336 2% 68%  
337 17% 66%  
338 1.4% 49% Median
339 2% 48%  
340 9% 45%  
341 5% 36%  
342 4% 31%  
343 2% 27%  
344 2% 25%  
345 1.4% 24%  
346 6% 22%  
347 3% 16%  
348 1.1% 13%  
349 1.4% 12%  
350 2% 11%  
351 3% 8%  
352 0.8% 5%  
353 0.2% 4%  
354 0.8% 4%  
355 2% 3% Majority
356 0.7% 1.5%  
357 0% 0.7%  
358 0.4% 0.7%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0.1% 99.6%  
322 0.6% 99.6%  
323 0.2% 98.9%  
324 0.4% 98.7%  
325 0.4% 98%  
326 2% 98%  
327 1.2% 96%  
328 1.1% 95%  
329 1.4% 94%  
330 0.7% 93%  
331 9% 92%  
332 4% 83%  
333 2% 79%  
334 5% 77%  
335 4% 72%  
336 0.9% 68%  
337 8% 67%  
338 2% 59%  
339 3% 57%  
340 17% 54% Median
341 2% 37%  
342 5% 35%  
343 3% 31%  
344 3% 28%  
345 4% 24%  
346 5% 21%  
347 0.9% 15%  
348 2% 14%  
349 4% 12%  
350 1.1% 8%  
351 2% 7%  
352 2% 6%  
353 1.2% 4%  
354 0.8% 3%  
355 0.7% 2% Majority
356 0.2% 1.3%  
357 0.3% 1.0%  
358 0.1% 0.8%  
359 0.4% 0.7%  
360 0.2% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.2% 99.7%  
301 1.2% 99.5%  
302 2% 98%  
303 1.2% 96%  
304 4% 95%  
305 2% 91%  
306 2% 90%  
307 1.0% 87%  
308 0.2% 86%  
309 0.3% 86%  
310 0.6% 86%  
311 4% 85%  
312 3% 81%  
313 8% 78%  
314 15% 71%  
315 5% 55%  
316 24% 50% Median
317 0.6% 27%  
318 5% 26%  
319 0.9% 21%  
320 0.3% 21%  
321 0.7% 20%  
322 0.3% 20%  
323 4% 19%  
324 2% 16%  
325 2% 13%  
326 7% 12%  
327 2% 5%  
328 1.1% 3%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0.8% 1.4%  
331 0.1% 0.7%  
332 0% 0.5%  
333 0% 0.5%  
334 0% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.4%  
337 0.2% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.9% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 98.7%  
294 0.5% 98.6%  
295 2% 98%  
296 3% 96%  
297 5% 93%  
298 1.0% 88%  
299 1.1% 87%  
300 3% 86%  
301 3% 83%  
302 5% 80%  
303 1.1% 75%  
304 5% 74%  
305 2% 69%  
306 0.8% 68%  
307 5% 67%  
308 2% 62% Median
309 19% 60%  
310 9% 41%  
311 5% 32%  
312 5% 27%  
313 4% 22%  
314 2% 18%  
315 8% 16%  
316 0.8% 8%  
317 1.1% 7%  
318 1.1% 6%  
319 1.3% 5%  
320 0.5% 3%  
321 0.4% 3%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.8% 1.4%  
325 0.2% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.5%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0.1% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.2% 99.9%  
259 0.6% 99.6%  
260 0.2% 99.1%  
261 0.5% 98.9%  
262 0.7% 98%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.7% 97%  
265 0.7% 97%  
266 0.3% 96%  
267 5% 96%  
268 6% 91%  
269 4% 85%  
270 2% 81%  
271 2% 80%  
272 4% 78%  
273 4% 74%  
274 1.3% 70%  
275 3% 68%  
276 9% 65%  
277 15% 56% Median
278 5% 41%  
279 3% 36%  
280 3% 33%  
281 4% 29%  
282 2% 25%  
283 2% 23%  
284 2% 21%  
285 6% 19%  
286 5% 13%  
287 1.1% 8%  
288 0.4% 6%  
289 1.3% 6%  
290 0.7% 5%  
291 1.0% 4%  
292 0.1% 3%  
293 0.5% 3%  
294 2% 3%  
295 0.3% 0.9%  
296 0.4% 0.6%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0.1% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0.3% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.4%  
254 1.1% 99.3%  
255 1.3% 98%  
256 0.5% 97%  
257 1.3% 96%  
258 0.6% 95%  
259 3% 94%  
260 2% 91%  
261 4% 89%  
262 2% 85%  
263 5% 83%  
264 1.3% 79%  
265 2% 77%  
266 3% 75%  
267 16% 72%  
268 4% 55% Median
269 3% 52%  
270 4% 48%  
271 6% 44%  
272 5% 38%  
273 4% 34%  
274 9% 30%  
275 1.2% 20%  
276 3% 19%  
277 0.9% 16%  
278 7% 15%  
279 2% 8%  
280 1.2% 6%  
281 0.6% 5%  
282 0.9% 4%  
283 1.4% 3%  
284 0.5% 2%  
285 0.6% 1.5%  
286 0.1% 0.9%  
287 0.2% 0.7%  
288 0% 0.6%  
289 0.2% 0.5%  
290 0% 0.3%  
291 0.2% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.7%  
155 0.4% 99.4%  
156 0.3% 99.0%  
157 0.4% 98.7%  
158 0.8% 98%  
159 2% 97%  
160 3% 95%  
161 1.1% 93%  
162 3% 92%  
163 1.3% 88%  
164 4% 87%  
165 5% 84%  
166 8% 79%  
167 6% 71%  
168 3% 65%  
169 15% 62%  
170 3% 47% Median
171 8% 44%  
172 2% 36%  
173 9% 34%  
174 4% 26%  
175 5% 22%  
176 4% 17%  
177 3% 13%  
178 1.1% 11%  
179 1.0% 10%  
180 3% 9%  
181 0.6% 5%  
182 2% 5%  
183 1.1% 3%  
184 0.5% 1.4%  
185 0.3% 0.9%  
186 0.1% 0.6%  
187 0.2% 0.5%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0.2% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.7%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.4% 99.6%  
156 0.4% 99.2%  
157 0.6% 98.8%  
158 1.1% 98%  
159 0.6% 97%  
160 1.0% 96%  
161 2% 95%  
162 5% 94%  
163 2% 88%  
164 2% 87%  
165 7% 85%  
166 6% 77%  
167 5% 72%  
168 7% 66%  
169 5% 59%  
170 1.5% 55%  
171 7% 53%  
172 15% 46% Median
173 4% 31%  
174 4% 27%  
175 4% 23%  
176 3% 19%  
177 4% 16%  
178 4% 13%  
179 3% 8%  
180 0.9% 6%  
181 1.2% 5%  
182 2% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.2%  
185 0.2% 0.8%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.2% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations