Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 18–21 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.5% 21.3–23.7% 21.0–24.1% 20.7–24.4% 20.2–25.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.2–23.8% 19.7–24.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.5% 12.6–14.5% 12.3–14.8% 12.1–15.1% 11.7–15.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 168 160–177 157–180 155–182 152–187
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 165 155–174 154–176 152–178 148–181
Alternative für Deutschland 94 111 104–118 102–123 101–124 98–127
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 101 94–109 93–111 90–111 88–116
Die Linke 69 68 62–73 61–76 59–77 56–80
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 57 51–61 50–63 49–65 47–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 34–43 33–44 32–45 30–48

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0.1% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0.3% 99.5%  
153 0.1% 99.2%  
154 0.4% 99.1%  
155 1.4% 98.7%  
156 0.9% 97%  
157 1.4% 96%  
158 0.9% 95%  
159 4% 94%  
160 2% 91%  
161 0.8% 88%  
162 4% 88%  
163 10% 83%  
164 2% 73%  
165 2% 71%  
166 3% 70%  
167 6% 67%  
168 11% 60% Median
169 2% 50%  
170 3% 48%  
171 13% 44%  
172 1.1% 32%  
173 3% 31%  
174 8% 28%  
175 7% 20%  
176 3% 14%  
177 0.4% 10%  
178 2% 10%  
179 1.4% 8%  
180 2% 7%  
181 0.3% 4%  
182 2% 4%  
183 0.8% 2%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.2% 1.0%  
186 0.1% 0.9%  
187 0.4% 0.7%  
188 0% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.2% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0.1% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.2% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.6%  
148 0.2% 99.5%  
149 0.5% 99.3%  
150 0.3% 98.9%  
151 0.7% 98.6%  
152 2% 98%  
153 0.5% 96%  
154 2% 95%  
155 5% 94%  
156 4% 89%  
157 2% 85%  
158 5% 83%  
159 9% 78%  
160 3% 69%  
161 5% 66%  
162 3% 60%  
163 3% 58%  
164 4% 55%  
165 8% 51% Median
166 2% 44%  
167 4% 42%  
168 5% 37%  
169 6% 32%  
170 9% 27%  
171 3% 18%  
172 0.9% 15%  
173 4% 14%  
174 3% 10%  
175 2% 8%  
176 2% 6%  
177 0.8% 4%  
178 2% 3%  
179 0.2% 2%  
180 0.5% 1.3%  
181 0.4% 0.8%  
182 0.1% 0.4%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0.2% 0.3%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.6%  
99 0.4% 99.5%  
100 0.2% 99.1%  
101 2% 98.9%  
102 2% 97%  
103 3% 95%  
104 2% 91%  
105 0.5% 90%  
106 0.6% 89%  
107 1.3% 88%  
108 9% 87%  
109 8% 78%  
110 17% 70%  
111 6% 53% Median
112 2% 46%  
113 2% 45%  
114 0.8% 43%  
115 5% 42%  
116 10% 37%  
117 14% 27%  
118 4% 13%  
119 2% 9%  
120 0.6% 7%  
121 0.5% 6%  
122 0.8% 6%  
123 0.9% 5%  
124 3% 4%  
125 0.2% 2%  
126 0.8% 1.3%  
127 0.1% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0% 99.6%  
88 0.5% 99.6%  
89 0.2% 99.1%  
90 2% 98.9%  
91 0.2% 97%  
92 2% 97%  
93 3% 95%  
94 3% 92%  
95 9% 89%  
96 0.6% 80%  
97 8% 79%  
98 4% 71%  
99 7% 67%  
100 4% 61%  
101 9% 57% Median
102 13% 48%  
103 0.7% 35%  
104 7% 35%  
105 3% 27%  
106 10% 25%  
107 1.5% 15%  
108 1.1% 14%  
109 5% 13%  
110 1.0% 7%  
111 4% 6%  
112 0.2% 2%  
113 0.6% 2%  
114 0.7% 2%  
115 0.3% 0.9%  
116 0.2% 0.6%  
117 0.1% 0.4%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 0.7% 99.5%  
58 0.7% 98.8%  
59 2% 98%  
60 1.0% 96%  
61 2% 95%  
62 5% 93%  
63 2% 88%  
64 14% 86%  
65 7% 72%  
66 6% 65%  
67 8% 59%  
68 9% 51% Median
69 8% 41% Last Result
70 8% 33%  
71 7% 25%  
72 7% 18%  
73 3% 11%  
74 2% 8%  
75 2% 7%  
76 2% 5%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.1%  
80 0.2% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 0.2% 99.7%  
47 0.5% 99.5%  
48 0.6% 99.0%  
49 2% 98%  
50 2% 96%  
51 5% 94%  
52 8% 89%  
53 2% 81%  
54 5% 79%  
55 14% 74%  
56 9% 61%  
57 13% 52% Median
58 11% 39%  
59 8% 27%  
60 8% 19%  
61 2% 11%  
62 4% 10%  
63 3% 6%  
64 0.5% 3%  
65 0.9% 3%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.8% 99.6%  
31 1.0% 98.8%  
32 1.5% 98%  
33 6% 96%  
34 8% 91%  
35 5% 83%  
36 6% 78%  
37 14% 72%  
38 5% 57%  
39 11% 52% Median
40 17% 41%  
41 3% 24%  
42 9% 21%  
43 6% 12%  
44 1.1% 5%  
45 2% 4%  
46 0.7% 2% Last Result
47 0.4% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 471 100% 463–484 459–485 457–486 453–491
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 428 100% 420–436 417–437 413–440 405–447
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 372 98.6% 362–381 359–384 357–386 353–391
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 370 98% 362–380 359–385 358–385 350–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 361 77% 351–371 348–373 346–375 341–380
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 337 1.4% 328–347 325–350 323–352 318–356
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 326 0% 317–337 312–341 312–342 306–347
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 315 0% 303–325 302–327 300–329 295–336
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 304 0% 294–316 290–317 287–319 284–324
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 270 0% 260–281 257–282 256–284 250–290
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 259 0% 252–266 250–268 246–272 239–280
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 167 0% 162–176 159–180 155–183 152–186
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 158 0% 149–166 147–169 144–172 140–176

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 99.9%  
449 0% 99.9%  
450 0.1% 99.9%  
451 0% 99.8%  
452 0.3% 99.8%  
453 0% 99.5%  
454 0.4% 99.5%  
455 0.3% 99.1%  
456 0.8% 98.8%  
457 0.7% 98%  
458 0.2% 97%  
459 2% 97%  
460 0.5% 95%  
461 2% 94%  
462 2% 93%  
463 0.8% 91%  
464 4% 90%  
465 2% 86%  
466 2% 85% Last Result
467 7% 83%  
468 1.1% 75%  
469 5% 74%  
470 4% 69%  
471 15% 65%  
472 0.5% 49%  
473 9% 49% Median
474 3% 40%  
475 3% 37%  
476 6% 35%  
477 2% 28%  
478 3% 26%  
479 2% 23%  
480 3% 21%  
481 5% 18%  
482 0.4% 13%  
483 3% 13%  
484 4% 10%  
485 2% 6%  
486 2% 4%  
487 0.4% 2%  
488 0.6% 2%  
489 0.3% 1.1%  
490 0.3% 0.8%  
491 0.2% 0.6%  
492 0.1% 0.4%  
493 0.1% 0.3%  
494 0% 0.2%  
495 0% 0.2%  
496 0.1% 0.2%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0.1% 100%  
402 0.1% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.2% 99.7%  
405 0.1% 99.6%  
406 0% 99.5%  
407 0.1% 99.4%  
408 0.1% 99.4%  
409 0.1% 99.3%  
410 0.5% 99.2%  
411 0.4% 98.7%  
412 0.2% 98%  
413 0.7% 98%  
414 0.2% 97%  
415 0.4% 97%  
416 0.9% 97%  
417 1.2% 96%  
418 3% 95%  
419 0.9% 92%  
420 1.3% 91%  
421 2% 90%  
422 1.0% 88%  
423 2% 87%  
424 6% 85%  
425 1.1% 79%  
426 13% 78%  
427 13% 65%  
428 15% 52%  
429 2% 37% Median
430 10% 35%  
431 0.7% 25%  
432 1.5% 24%  
433 2% 23%  
434 6% 21%  
435 4% 15%  
436 5% 11%  
437 1.5% 6%  
438 1.5% 5%  
439 0.6% 3%  
440 0.3% 3%  
441 0.2% 2%  
442 0.3% 2%  
443 0.3% 2%  
444 0.4% 1.5%  
445 0.3% 1.1%  
446 0.2% 0.7%  
447 0% 0.5%  
448 0% 0.5%  
449 0.1% 0.5%  
450 0.1% 0.4%  
451 0.1% 0.3%  
452 0.1% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.6%  
352 0% 99.5%  
353 0.3% 99.5%  
354 0.5% 99.2%  
355 0.5% 98.6% Majority
356 0.3% 98%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 2% 97%  
359 2% 95%  
360 0.7% 93%  
361 2% 93%  
362 5% 91%  
363 4% 85%  
364 2% 81%  
365 3% 79%  
366 3% 76%  
367 2% 73%  
368 4% 71%  
369 5% 67%  
370 8% 62%  
371 3% 54%  
372 9% 51% Median
373 9% 43%  
374 1.3% 33%  
375 1.1% 32%  
376 4% 31%  
377 4% 27%  
378 0.4% 22%  
379 2% 22%  
380 4% 20%  
381 7% 16%  
382 3% 9%  
383 0.9% 6%  
384 0.7% 5%  
385 2% 4%  
386 0.3% 3%  
387 0.3% 2%  
388 0.5% 2%  
389 0.5% 1.4%  
390 0.3% 1.0%  
391 0.3% 0.7%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.3% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0% 99.5%  
352 0.2% 99.4%  
353 1.2% 99.3%  
354 0.3% 98%  
355 0.1% 98% Majority
356 0% 98%  
357 0.2% 98%  
358 2% 98%  
359 2% 96%  
360 2% 94%  
361 0.6% 91%  
362 0.9% 91%  
363 0.6% 90%  
364 4% 89%  
365 2% 85%  
366 0.6% 83%  
367 1.3% 82%  
368 0.8% 81%  
369 18% 80%  
370 21% 63%  
371 0.8% 41%  
372 0.2% 41% Median
373 1.5% 40%  
374 6% 39%  
375 10% 33%  
376 0.8% 23%  
377 0.2% 23%  
378 4% 22%  
379 5% 18%  
380 3% 13%  
381 0.9% 10%  
382 0.1% 9%  
383 0.2% 9%  
384 2% 9%  
385 4% 7%  
386 1.3% 2%  
387 0% 1.1%  
388 0% 1.1%  
389 0.3% 1.1%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.1% 0.6%  
392 0% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.3% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.2% 99.6%  
342 0.3% 99.4%  
343 0.3% 99.1%  
344 0.2% 98.8%  
345 0.2% 98.6%  
346 1.2% 98%  
347 1.3% 97%  
348 1.3% 96%  
349 2% 95%  
350 0.7% 92%  
351 3% 91%  
352 4% 89%  
353 1.1% 84%  
354 7% 83%  
355 1.1% 77% Majority
356 7% 75%  
357 4% 69%  
358 8% 65%  
359 5% 57%  
360 1.0% 52%  
361 11% 51%  
362 2% 40% Median
363 7% 38%  
364 4% 31%  
365 5% 27%  
366 1.4% 22%  
367 3% 20%  
368 3% 17%  
369 2% 14%  
370 1.4% 12%  
371 4% 11%  
372 0.9% 7%  
373 2% 6%  
374 1.0% 4%  
375 1.0% 3%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0.2% 1.4%  
378 0.3% 1.3%  
379 0.2% 0.9%  
380 0.3% 0.8%  
381 0.2% 0.5%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0.1% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.7%  
318 0.3% 99.6%  
319 0.3% 99.3%  
320 0.5% 99.0%  
321 0.5% 98.6%  
322 0.3% 98%  
323 0.3% 98%  
324 2% 97%  
325 0.7% 96%  
326 0.9% 95%  
327 3% 94%  
328 7% 91%  
329 4% 84%  
330 2% 80%  
331 0.4% 78%  
332 4% 78%  
333 4% 73%  
334 1.1% 69%  
335 1.3% 68%  
336 9% 67%  
337 9% 57% Median
338 3% 49%  
339 8% 46%  
340 5% 38%  
341 4% 33%  
342 2% 29%  
343 3% 27%  
344 3% 24%  
345 2% 21%  
346 4% 19%  
347 5% 15%  
348 2% 9%  
349 0.7% 7%  
350 2% 7%  
351 2% 5%  
352 0.4% 3%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.5% 2%  
355 0.5% 1.4% Majority
356 0.3% 0.8%  
357 0% 0.5%  
358 0.1% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0.1% 99.9%  
303 0.2% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.6%  
306 0.2% 99.6%  
307 0.3% 99.3%  
308 0.5% 99.0%  
309 0.5% 98.5%  
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.3% 98%  
312 3% 98%  
313 2% 94%  
314 0.5% 92%  
315 0.8% 92%  
316 0.6% 91%  
317 10% 90%  
318 1.2% 80%  
319 4% 79%  
320 2% 75%  
321 2% 73%  
322 0.9% 71%  
323 4% 70%  
324 4% 66%  
325 3% 63%  
326 10% 59% Median
327 3% 49%  
328 5% 46%  
329 3% 41%  
330 10% 38%  
331 1.2% 29%  
332 4% 27%  
333 3% 23%  
334 1.1% 20%  
335 7% 19%  
336 2% 12%  
337 0.9% 10%  
338 0.7% 9%  
339 0.4% 9%  
340 1.2% 8%  
341 5% 7%  
342 1.1% 3%  
343 0.2% 1.4%  
344 0.1% 1.3%  
345 0.2% 1.2%  
346 0.2% 1.0%  
347 0.4% 0.8%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.1% 99.5%  
296 0.1% 99.4%  
297 0.1% 99.3%  
298 0.2% 99.2%  
299 1.2% 99.1%  
300 0.4% 98%  
301 1.0% 97%  
302 3% 96%  
303 4% 94%  
304 2% 89%  
305 7% 88%  
306 2% 81%  
307 1.4% 79%  
308 0.7% 77%  
309 2% 77%  
310 1.1% 74%  
311 6% 73%  
312 2% 67%  
313 4% 64%  
314 4% 61%  
315 11% 57% Median
316 4% 46%  
317 5% 42%  
318 2% 37%  
319 2% 35%  
320 2% 32%  
321 4% 30%  
322 4% 26%  
323 3% 22%  
324 8% 19%  
325 5% 11%  
326 1.1% 7%  
327 2% 5%  
328 1.0% 4%  
329 0.2% 3%  
330 0.2% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.8% 1.3%  
336 0% 0.5%  
337 0.3% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1% Last Result
341 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.2% 99.8%  
284 0.2% 99.6%  
285 0.6% 99.4%  
286 0.3% 98.7%  
287 1.0% 98%  
288 0.5% 97%  
289 2% 97%  
290 0.7% 95%  
291 1.0% 95%  
292 1.3% 94%  
293 2% 92%  
294 1.0% 90%  
295 1.4% 89%  
296 2% 88%  
297 3% 86%  
298 5% 83%  
299 6% 77%  
300 8% 71%  
301 6% 63%  
302 4% 57%  
303 3% 53%  
304 12% 51%  
305 4% 39% Median
306 1.1% 35%  
307 4% 34%  
308 3% 30%  
309 1.2% 27%  
310 3% 26%  
311 1.4% 23%  
312 1.4% 21%  
313 7% 20%  
314 2% 13%  
315 0.7% 11%  
316 4% 10%  
317 2% 6%  
318 0.1% 4%  
319 2% 4%  
320 0.3% 1.4%  
321 0.3% 1.1%  
322 0.2% 0.8%  
323 0.1% 0.6%  
324 0% 0.5%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.2% 99.8%  
250 0.2% 99.6%  
251 0.3% 99.5%  
252 0.2% 99.1%  
253 0.4% 98.9%  
254 0.3% 98%  
255 0.3% 98%  
256 1.0% 98%  
257 3% 97%  
258 1.0% 94%  
259 3% 93%  
260 6% 90%  
261 5% 84%  
262 0.9% 79%  
263 3% 78%  
264 1.5% 75%  
265 3% 74%  
266 3% 70%  
267 2% 67%  
268 3% 66%  
269 5% 62% Median
270 9% 57%  
271 3% 49%  
272 8% 46%  
273 3% 38%  
274 5% 34%  
275 4% 29%  
276 0.7% 25%  
277 6% 25%  
278 6% 19%  
279 2% 13%  
280 0.8% 11%  
281 4% 10%  
282 3% 6%  
283 0.3% 3%  
284 0.7% 3%  
285 0.5% 2%  
286 0.6% 2%  
287 0.3% 1.3%  
288 0.2% 1.0%  
289 0.2% 0.8%  
290 0.1% 0.6%  
291 0.2% 0.5%  
292 0% 0.3%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0.1% 0.1%  
295 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0.1% 99.6%  
239 0.3% 99.5%  
240 0.2% 99.2%  
241 0.3% 99.0%  
242 0.2% 98.7%  
243 0.5% 98.5%  
244 0.3% 98%  
245 0.3% 98%  
246 0.2% 98%  
247 0.4% 97%  
248 0.3% 97%  
249 0.8% 97%  
250 2% 96%  
251 0.6% 94%  
252 6% 94%  
253 0.9% 87%  
254 4% 86%  
255 9% 83%  
256 3% 74%  
257 14% 71%  
258 3% 58%  
259 9% 54%  
260 1.4% 46%  
261 9% 44% Median
262 12% 35%  
263 1.2% 23%  
264 8% 22%  
265 2% 14%  
266 3% 12%  
267 4% 10%  
268 1.4% 5%  
269 0.6% 4%  
270 0.1% 3%  
271 0.5% 3%  
272 0.7% 3%  
273 0.1% 2%  
274 0.2% 2%  
275 0.1% 2%  
276 0.5% 2%  
277 0.2% 1.2%  
278 0.2% 0.9%  
279 0.1% 0.8%  
280 0.2% 0.7%  
281 0.2% 0.5%  
282 0% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.8%  
152 0.5% 99.8%  
153 0.2% 99.3%  
154 0.8% 99.1%  
155 1.4% 98%  
156 0.7% 97%  
157 0.8% 96%  
158 0.3% 95%  
159 1.0% 95%  
160 1.2% 94%  
161 1.1% 93%  
162 6% 92%  
163 0.8% 86%  
164 3% 86%  
165 19% 83%  
166 8% 64%  
167 6% 56%  
168 0.5% 50%  
169 0.5% 49% Median
170 1.2% 49%  
171 11% 48%  
172 13% 36%  
173 8% 23%  
174 3% 15%  
175 0.7% 12%  
176 2% 11%  
177 2% 9%  
178 0.8% 8%  
179 2% 7%  
180 0.1% 5%  
181 0.7% 5%  
182 1.0% 4%  
183 1.3% 3%  
184 0.9% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.1%  
186 0.4% 0.8%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0.1% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.3% 99.8%  
141 0% 99.5%  
142 0.1% 99.5%  
143 0.6% 99.4%  
144 2% 98.8%  
145 1.2% 97%  
146 0.2% 95%  
147 0.6% 95%  
148 1.0% 95%  
149 7% 94%  
150 5% 86%  
151 3% 82%  
152 0.8% 78%  
153 3% 78%  
154 10% 75%  
155 6% 65%  
156 3% 59%  
157 3% 57%  
158 5% 54% Median
159 8% 49%  
160 6% 41%  
161 13% 35%  
162 1.2% 22%  
163 0.4% 21%  
164 6% 21%  
165 3% 14%  
166 4% 11%  
167 2% 8%  
168 0.5% 6%  
169 0.6% 5%  
170 0.5% 5%  
171 1.5% 4%  
172 2% 3%  
173 0.2% 1.3%  
174 0.1% 1.1%  
175 0.1% 1.0%  
176 0.5% 0.9%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations