Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 25–28 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.2% 20.0–22.4% 19.7–22.7% 19.4–23.0% 18.9–23.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.3–16.9% 14.0–17.2% 13.5–17.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.5% 12.6–14.5% 12.3–14.8% 12.1–15.1% 11.7–15.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.8% 4.3–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.7–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 173 164–181 162–183 159–187 155–191
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 158 150–167 148–169 146–170 142–176
Alternative für Deutschland 94 117 109–124 107–126 105–127 101–132
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 101 94–109 92–110 90–112 88–116
Die Linke 69 68 61–72 59–77 58–78 57–80
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 56 51–62 49–63 48–66 45–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 32–41 31–43 30–44 28–46

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.2% 99.8%  
155 0.2% 99.6%  
156 0.6% 99.3%  
157 0.3% 98.8%  
158 0.5% 98%  
159 0.7% 98%  
160 0.5% 97%  
161 1.1% 97%  
162 3% 96%  
163 3% 93%  
164 2% 90%  
165 3% 88%  
166 3% 85%  
167 11% 82%  
168 2% 71%  
169 5% 69%  
170 7% 64%  
171 3% 57%  
172 2% 54%  
173 2% 52% Median
174 6% 50%  
175 9% 44%  
176 5% 35%  
177 4% 29%  
178 7% 25%  
179 1.1% 18%  
180 4% 17%  
181 5% 13%  
182 2% 8%  
183 2% 7%  
184 0.2% 5%  
185 0.8% 5%  
186 1.5% 4%  
187 1.1% 3%  
188 0.3% 1.4%  
189 0.3% 1.1%  
190 0.2% 0.8%  
191 0.2% 0.6%  
192 0.3% 0.4%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0.1% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.7%  
142 0.2% 99.6%  
143 0.1% 99.4%  
144 0.4% 99.3%  
145 1.0% 98.9%  
146 0.6% 98%  
147 2% 97%  
148 3% 96%  
149 0.6% 93%  
150 6% 92%  
151 5% 86%  
152 4% 81%  
153 9% 76%  
154 3% 67%  
155 6% 65%  
156 4% 58%  
157 4% 54%  
158 3% 50% Median
159 2% 47%  
160 2% 45%  
161 3% 43%  
162 10% 39%  
163 3% 30%  
164 11% 27%  
165 2% 16%  
166 1.2% 14%  
167 4% 13%  
168 2% 9%  
169 2% 6%  
170 3% 5%  
171 0.5% 2%  
172 0.2% 1.4%  
173 0.3% 1.2%  
174 0.2% 0.9%  
175 0.1% 0.7%  
176 0.1% 0.6%  
177 0.1% 0.5%  
178 0.2% 0.4%  
179 0% 0.2%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.8%  
101 0.3% 99.8%  
102 0.4% 99.5%  
103 0.5% 99.1%  
104 1.0% 98.6%  
105 1.1% 98%  
106 1.1% 96%  
107 1.4% 95%  
108 3% 94%  
109 4% 91%  
110 3% 87%  
111 4% 83%  
112 5% 79%  
113 5% 74%  
114 4% 69%  
115 5% 66%  
116 7% 61%  
117 6% 53% Median
118 6% 47%  
119 6% 41%  
120 8% 35%  
121 8% 28%  
122 5% 20%  
123 3% 14%  
124 4% 11%  
125 2% 7%  
126 0.8% 5%  
127 2% 4%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.3% 2%  
130 0.6% 1.4%  
131 0.2% 0.8%  
132 0.3% 0.6%  
133 0% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.1% 99.7%  
88 0.4% 99.6%  
89 0.7% 99.2%  
90 1.0% 98%  
91 2% 97%  
92 1.0% 95%  
93 2% 94%  
94 4% 93%  
95 8% 89%  
96 6% 80%  
97 3% 75%  
98 4% 71%  
99 4% 67%  
100 9% 63%  
101 11% 54% Median
102 3% 43%  
103 7% 40%  
104 7% 33%  
105 4% 26%  
106 4% 22%  
107 6% 19%  
108 2% 13%  
109 3% 11%  
110 3% 8%  
111 1.2% 5%  
112 1.0% 3%  
113 0.3% 2%  
114 0.7% 2%  
115 0.6% 1.5%  
116 0.4% 0.9%  
117 0.2% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 1.2% 99.6%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 4% 95%  
61 5% 90%  
62 1.4% 86%  
63 0.9% 84%  
64 2% 83%  
65 4% 82%  
66 6% 78%  
67 13% 72%  
68 15% 59% Median
69 14% 44% Last Result
70 10% 30%  
71 6% 21%  
72 5% 14%  
73 0.8% 9%  
74 0.5% 9%  
75 1.3% 8%  
76 2% 7%  
77 0.9% 5%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.7%  
46 0.3% 99.5%  
47 0.4% 99.2%  
48 3% 98.8%  
49 3% 96%  
50 2% 93%  
51 2% 90%  
52 10% 88%  
53 7% 78%  
54 4% 71%  
55 15% 68%  
56 5% 53% Median
57 10% 48%  
58 4% 38%  
59 14% 35%  
60 5% 20%  
61 3% 15%  
62 4% 12%  
63 4% 8%  
64 1.5% 5%  
65 0.6% 3%  
66 1.5% 3%  
67 0.6% 1.1%  
68 0.1% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 0.9% 99.3%  
30 3% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 4% 92%  
33 8% 87%  
34 7% 79%  
35 11% 72%  
36 12% 61% Median
37 12% 50%  
38 5% 38%  
39 11% 32%  
40 8% 21%  
41 4% 13%  
42 3% 9%  
43 2% 5%  
44 1.4% 3%  
45 0.7% 2%  
46 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 469 100% 459–479 455–480 454–484 449–488
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 423 100% 412–434 411–437 408–438 403–444
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 368 95% 358–377 355–380 351–384 346–388
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 367 93% 356–379 354–382 351–382 347–387
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 351 31% 342–364 340–367 339–368 332–373
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 341 5% 332–351 329–354 325–358 321–363
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 330 0.1% 319–340 317–343 314–346 310–350
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 311 0% 300–321 298–325 296–327 291–331
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 295 0% 285–306 283–309 281–313 277–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 274 0% 264–283 261–287 257–290 254–293
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 251 0% 241–261 240–264 236–267 232–272
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 161–177 158–180 156–183 151–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 157 0% 149–167 147–169 146–171 141–176

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0.1% 99.9%  
447 0.1% 99.8%  
448 0.1% 99.7%  
449 0.2% 99.6%  
450 0.1% 99.4%  
451 0.2% 99.3%  
452 0.4% 99.0%  
453 0.5% 98.7%  
454 2% 98%  
455 1.4% 96%  
456 0.5% 95%  
457 3% 94%  
458 1.0% 91%  
459 1.0% 90%  
460 2% 89%  
461 3% 87%  
462 6% 84%  
463 8% 78%  
464 2% 70%  
465 7% 68%  
466 6% 61% Last Result
467 2% 55%  
468 4% 54% Median
469 4% 50%  
470 3% 46%  
471 7% 43%  
472 7% 36%  
473 5% 29%  
474 6% 24%  
475 3% 19%  
476 2% 16%  
477 2% 14%  
478 1.1% 11%  
479 3% 10%  
480 2% 7%  
481 0.5% 5%  
482 1.5% 4%  
483 0.4% 3%  
484 0.3% 3%  
485 0.7% 2%  
486 0.3% 2%  
487 0.4% 1.2%  
488 0.3% 0.8%  
489 0.2% 0.5%  
490 0.1% 0.3%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.8%  
402 0.1% 99.8%  
403 0.3% 99.8%  
404 0.2% 99.5%  
405 0.9% 99.3%  
406 0.3% 98%  
407 0.1% 98%  
408 0.6% 98%  
409 0.5% 97%  
410 1.2% 97%  
411 4% 96%  
412 2% 92%  
413 2% 90%  
414 3% 87%  
415 1.0% 85%  
416 0.6% 84%  
417 6% 83%  
418 2% 78%  
419 3% 75%  
420 8% 73%  
421 9% 65%  
422 2% 56%  
423 5% 54% Median
424 2% 49%  
425 3% 47%  
426 8% 44%  
427 2% 36%  
428 10% 34%  
429 3% 24%  
430 1.3% 21%  
431 6% 20%  
432 0.9% 14%  
433 2% 13%  
434 3% 11%  
435 1.0% 8%  
436 1.3% 7%  
437 3% 6%  
438 0.4% 3%  
439 0.3% 2%  
440 0.4% 2%  
441 0.1% 2%  
442 0.4% 1.5%  
443 0.3% 1.0%  
444 0.3% 0.7%  
445 0.2% 0.4%  
446 0.1% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.4% 99.7%  
347 0.1% 99.3%  
348 0.3% 99.2%  
349 0.2% 98.9%  
350 1.2% 98.7%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 0.5% 97%  
353 0.5% 97%  
354 1.0% 96%  
355 0.9% 95% Majority
356 2% 94%  
357 1.3% 93%  
358 4% 91%  
359 4% 87%  
360 5% 83%  
361 0.9% 78%  
362 6% 77%  
363 7% 71%  
364 0.9% 64%  
365 5% 63%  
366 2% 58%  
367 5% 56% Median
368 3% 52%  
369 2% 49%  
370 9% 47%  
371 5% 38%  
372 4% 33%  
373 2% 29%  
374 6% 27%  
375 7% 21%  
376 2% 15%  
377 4% 13%  
378 1.2% 8%  
379 0.8% 7%  
380 2% 6%  
381 1.1% 5%  
382 0.6% 4%  
383 0.6% 3%  
384 0.5% 3%  
385 0.4% 2%  
386 0.3% 2%  
387 0.4% 1.3%  
388 0.5% 1.0%  
389 0.2% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.2% 99.6%  
348 0.5% 99.4%  
349 0.1% 98.9%  
350 0.3% 98.8%  
351 1.2% 98.5%  
352 0.3% 97%  
353 1.2% 97%  
354 3% 96%  
355 0.3% 93% Majority
356 4% 93%  
357 2% 89%  
358 1.3% 86%  
359 3% 85%  
360 4% 82%  
361 2% 78%  
362 3% 76%  
363 4% 73%  
364 5% 69%  
365 1.4% 64%  
366 8% 62%  
367 6% 54% Median
368 2% 48%  
369 10% 46%  
370 2% 36%  
371 5% 34%  
372 5% 29%  
373 2% 25%  
374 3% 23%  
375 2% 19%  
376 3% 17%  
377 1.0% 14%  
378 2% 13%  
379 5% 11%  
380 0.2% 6%  
381 0.8% 6%  
382 3% 5%  
383 0.4% 2%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.7% 2%  
386 0.1% 0.9%  
387 0.3% 0.8%  
388 0.1% 0.5%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
326 0.1% 100%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.8%  
329 0.2% 99.8%  
330 0.1% 99.7%  
331 0.1% 99.6%  
332 0.1% 99.5%  
333 0.2% 99.4%  
334 0.1% 99.2%  
335 0.5% 99.2%  
336 0.1% 98.7%  
337 0.5% 98.5%  
338 0.3% 98%  
339 0.5% 98%  
340 2% 97%  
341 2% 95%  
342 4% 93%  
343 1.5% 89%  
344 3% 87%  
345 0.8% 84%  
346 10% 83%  
347 4% 73%  
348 8% 69%  
349 4% 62%  
350 4% 58%  
351 7% 54% Median
352 5% 47%  
353 2% 42%  
354 10% 41%  
355 1.0% 31% Majority
356 2% 30%  
357 5% 28%  
358 1.4% 23%  
359 3% 22%  
360 2% 19%  
361 3% 17%  
362 1.1% 14%  
363 1.3% 13%  
364 3% 12%  
365 2% 9%  
366 1.5% 7%  
367 1.1% 5%  
368 2% 4%  
369 0.6% 2%  
370 0.5% 2%  
371 0.5% 1.3%  
372 0.2% 0.8%  
373 0.3% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.9%  
320 0.2% 99.7%  
321 0.5% 99.6%  
322 0.4% 99.0%  
323 0.3% 98.7%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.5% 98%  
326 0.6% 97%  
327 0.6% 97%  
328 1.1% 96%  
329 2% 95%  
330 0.8% 94%  
331 1.2% 93%  
332 4% 92%  
333 2% 87%  
334 7% 85%  
335 6% 79%  
336 2% 73%  
337 4% 71%  
338 5% 67%  
339 9% 62%  
340 2% 53%  
341 3% 51%  
342 5% 48% Median
343 2% 44%  
344 5% 42%  
345 0.9% 37%  
346 7% 36%  
347 6% 29%  
348 0.9% 23%  
349 5% 22%  
350 4% 17%  
351 4% 13%  
352 1.3% 9%  
353 2% 7%  
354 0.9% 6%  
355 1.0% 5% Majority
356 0.5% 4%  
357 0.5% 3%  
358 0.4% 3%  
359 1.2% 2%  
360 0.2% 1.3%  
361 0.3% 1.1%  
362 0.1% 0.8%  
363 0.4% 0.7%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0.1% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0.2% 99.5%  
312 0.2% 99.2%  
313 1.1% 99.1%  
314 0.6% 98%  
315 1.2% 97%  
316 1.1% 96%  
317 1.1% 95%  
318 1.1% 94%  
319 4% 93%  
320 1.2% 89%  
321 2% 88%  
322 9% 86%  
323 1.2% 77%  
324 1.4% 75%  
325 6% 74%  
326 2% 68%  
327 5% 67%  
328 4% 62%  
329 7% 58%  
330 5% 51% Median
331 2% 46%  
332 6% 44%  
333 4% 38%  
334 4% 34%  
335 5% 30%  
336 2% 25%  
337 5% 24%  
338 6% 19%  
339 0.3% 12%  
340 4% 12%  
341 2% 8%  
342 1.0% 7%  
343 1.5% 6%  
344 0.8% 4%  
345 1.0% 4%  
346 0.9% 3%  
347 0.5% 2%  
348 0.1% 1.3%  
349 0.7% 1.2%  
350 0.1% 0.6%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.2% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.6%  
291 0.3% 99.6%  
292 0.1% 99.3%  
293 0.5% 99.2%  
294 0.3% 98.7%  
295 0.4% 98%  
296 0.5% 98%  
297 1.5% 97%  
298 2% 96%  
299 0.8% 94%  
300 3% 93%  
301 4% 90%  
302 2% 86%  
303 2% 84%  
304 3% 82%  
305 4% 79%  
306 2% 76%  
307 5% 74%  
308 6% 68%  
309 3% 62%  
310 5% 60%  
311 9% 55% Median
312 4% 46%  
313 4% 42%  
314 5% 39%  
315 3% 34%  
316 1.5% 31%  
317 5% 30%  
318 3% 24%  
319 2% 21%  
320 9% 20%  
321 2% 11%  
322 0.7% 9%  
323 0.8% 9%  
324 2% 8%  
325 2% 6%  
326 0.5% 4%  
327 1.1% 3%  
328 0.5% 2%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0.6% 2%  
331 0.6% 1.0%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0.1% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.2% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.5%  
278 0.2% 99.3%  
279 0.6% 99.1%  
280 0.6% 98%  
281 2% 98%  
282 0.7% 96%  
283 2% 95%  
284 0.8% 93%  
285 3% 93%  
286 0.9% 90%  
287 7% 89%  
288 1.0% 82%  
289 3% 81%  
290 1.2% 78%  
291 4% 76%  
292 5% 72%  
293 9% 68%  
294 7% 59%  
295 2% 52% Median
296 3% 50%  
297 3% 47%  
298 4% 44%  
299 11% 40%  
300 3% 30%  
301 3% 26%  
302 4% 23%  
303 2% 19%  
304 3% 17%  
305 3% 14%  
306 3% 11%  
307 1.3% 8%  
308 0.7% 7%  
309 2% 6%  
310 0.7% 4%  
311 0.5% 4%  
312 0.5% 3%  
313 0.9% 3%  
314 0.4% 2%  
315 0.4% 1.4%  
316 0.6% 1.0%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.4% 99.7%  
255 0.2% 99.3%  
256 0.3% 99.1%  
257 2% 98.7%  
258 0.2% 97%  
259 0.4% 97%  
260 0.8% 96%  
261 1.0% 96%  
262 0.4% 94%  
263 0.5% 94%  
264 4% 94%  
265 0.6% 89%  
266 4% 89%  
267 12% 85%  
268 4% 74%  
269 2% 70%  
270 12% 68%  
271 0.7% 56%  
272 2% 55%  
273 3% 53%  
274 3% 50% Median
275 2% 47%  
276 2% 46%  
277 11% 44%  
278 3% 32%  
279 8% 29%  
280 6% 22%  
281 3% 16%  
282 1.3% 12%  
283 3% 11%  
284 0.6% 8%  
285 0.5% 8%  
286 0.4% 7%  
287 2% 7%  
288 0.4% 5%  
289 0.6% 5%  
290 2% 4%  
291 0.4% 2%  
292 0.7% 1.4%  
293 0.3% 0.7%  
294 0.1% 0.4%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0.1% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0.2% 99.8%  
232 0.5% 99.6%  
233 0.3% 99.1%  
234 0.3% 98.8%  
235 0.4% 98%  
236 0.7% 98%  
237 0.3% 97%  
238 1.4% 97%  
239 0.4% 96%  
240 3% 95%  
241 7% 92%  
242 1.5% 85%  
243 3% 84%  
244 1.3% 80%  
245 3% 79%  
246 6% 76%  
247 3% 70%  
248 3% 68%  
249 3% 65%  
250 10% 62% Median
251 8% 52%  
252 2% 44%  
253 3% 42%  
254 8% 39%  
255 2% 31%  
256 8% 29%  
257 3% 21%  
258 1.4% 18%  
259 4% 17%  
260 0.9% 13%  
261 4% 12%  
262 0.8% 8%  
263 1.2% 7%  
264 2% 6%  
265 1.3% 5%  
266 0.3% 3%  
267 2% 3%  
268 0.2% 2%  
269 0.3% 1.3%  
270 0.1% 1.0%  
271 0.3% 0.9%  
272 0.1% 0.6%  
273 0.3% 0.5%  
274 0% 0.2%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.2% 99.9%  
151 0.2% 99.6%  
152 0.1% 99.5%  
153 0.2% 99.4%  
154 0.7% 99.2%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 0.8% 98%  
157 0.6% 97%  
158 2% 96%  
159 2% 94%  
160 1.0% 92%  
161 6% 91%  
162 5% 85%  
163 2% 79%  
164 6% 77%  
165 2% 72%  
166 5% 69%  
167 7% 64%  
168 6% 57%  
169 6% 51% Median
170 4% 45%  
171 7% 41%  
172 5% 34%  
173 3% 28%  
174 3% 26%  
175 3% 22%  
176 6% 19%  
177 3% 13%  
178 2% 10%  
179 1.0% 8%  
180 3% 7%  
181 1.3% 5%  
182 0.7% 3%  
183 0.8% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.5% 1.2%  
186 0.1% 0.8%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.2% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.6%  
142 0.2% 99.5%  
143 0.3% 99.2%  
144 0.5% 98.9%  
145 0.4% 98%  
146 2% 98%  
147 4% 96%  
148 2% 92%  
149 4% 90%  
150 4% 86%  
151 5% 82%  
152 3% 77%  
153 3% 74%  
154 5% 71%  
155 9% 66%  
156 5% 57%  
157 4% 51% Median
158 5% 47%  
159 4% 42%  
160 4% 39%  
161 5% 34%  
162 8% 30%  
163 5% 22%  
164 1.1% 16%  
165 4% 15%  
166 1.1% 11%  
167 2% 10%  
168 1.1% 8%  
169 4% 7%  
170 0.5% 3%  
171 1.0% 3%  
172 0.2% 2%  
173 0.5% 2%  
174 0.3% 1.2%  
175 0.3% 0.9%  
176 0.3% 0.6%  
177 0.2% 0.3%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations