Opinion Poll by Kantar for Bild am Sonntag, 24–30 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.7–23.2% 20.4–23.5% 20.1–23.8% 19.6–24.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.2% 16.6–19.5% 16.4–19.8% 15.9–20.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 164 155–173 153–176 151–178 147–183
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 127–144 125–146 123–148 119–152
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 112–128 110–130 108–132 104–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 113 105–121 103–123 101–125 98–129
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 68 62–74 60–76 59–78 56–81
Die Linke 69 67 61–74 60–76 58–78 56–81
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 37–46 35–48 34–49 32–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.7%  
147 0.2% 99.5%  
148 0.4% 99.3%  
149 0.5% 98.9%  
150 0.6% 98%  
151 1.0% 98%  
152 1.3% 97%  
153 1.3% 96%  
154 2% 94%  
155 2% 92%  
156 3% 90%  
157 4% 87%  
158 4% 83%  
159 3% 79%  
160 5% 76%  
161 6% 71%  
162 4% 65%  
163 7% 61%  
164 6% 54% Median
165 5% 48%  
166 7% 44%  
167 5% 37%  
168 4% 32%  
169 4% 28%  
170 4% 23%  
171 3% 19%  
172 3% 16%  
173 3% 13%  
174 2% 9%  
175 2% 8%  
176 2% 6%  
177 1.0% 4%  
178 0.9% 3%  
179 0.7% 2%  
180 0.4% 2%  
181 0.3% 1.2%  
182 0.4% 0.9%  
183 0.2% 0.5%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.5%  
120 0.4% 99.3%  
121 0.5% 98.8%  
122 0.8% 98%  
123 0.8% 98%  
124 1.1% 97%  
125 2% 96%  
126 2% 94%  
127 3% 92%  
128 4% 88%  
129 5% 84%  
130 5% 80%  
131 5% 75%  
132 5% 70%  
133 5% 65%  
134 5% 60%  
135 6% 55% Median
136 5% 49%  
137 6% 44%  
138 7% 38%  
139 6% 31%  
140 5% 25%  
141 4% 20%  
142 3% 16%  
143 2% 13%  
144 2% 11%  
145 2% 9%  
146 1.4% 6%  
147 1.4% 5%  
148 1.3% 4%  
149 0.8% 2%  
150 0.5% 1.5%  
151 0.4% 1.0%  
152 0.2% 0.6%  
153 0.1% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.3% 99.7%  
105 0.3% 99.4%  
106 0.3% 99.2%  
107 1.0% 98.8%  
108 1.2% 98%  
109 0.7% 97%  
110 2% 96%  
111 3% 94%  
112 2% 90%  
113 3% 89%  
114 4% 85%  
115 6% 81%  
116 5% 75%  
117 4% 70%  
118 9% 66%  
119 6% 58%  
120 4% 52% Median
121 6% 48%  
122 9% 42%  
123 4% 33%  
124 3% 29%  
125 7% 25%  
126 4% 18%  
127 2% 14%  
128 3% 12%  
129 3% 9%  
130 1.3% 6%  
131 0.9% 5%  
132 1.3% 4%  
133 0.9% 2%  
134 0.4% 2%  
135 0.3% 1.2%  
136 0.4% 0.9%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9% Last Result
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.4% 99.5%  
99 0.4% 99.1%  
100 1.0% 98.7%  
101 1.2% 98%  
102 1.5% 97%  
103 2% 95%  
104 2% 93%  
105 3% 91%  
106 3% 88%  
107 6% 85%  
108 5% 79%  
109 7% 74%  
110 4% 67%  
111 8% 63%  
112 4% 55%  
113 8% 51% Median
114 6% 44%  
115 6% 38%  
116 6% 32%  
117 5% 26%  
118 5% 21%  
119 3% 16%  
120 3% 13%  
121 3% 11%  
122 2% 8%  
123 2% 6%  
124 1.1% 4%  
125 1.0% 3%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.3% 1.2%  
128 0.3% 0.9%  
129 0.2% 0.6%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 99.5%  
57 0.5% 99.2%  
58 0.9% 98.6%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 94%  
62 5% 91%  
63 4% 85%  
64 6% 81%  
65 8% 75%  
66 7% 68%  
67 6% 60%  
68 11% 54% Median
69 8% 43%  
70 7% 35%  
71 6% 29%  
72 6% 22%  
73 4% 17%  
74 4% 13%  
75 3% 9%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.4% 4%  
78 1.3% 3%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.4% 1.1% Last Result
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 0.7% 99.2%  
58 1.0% 98.5%  
59 1.2% 97%  
60 2% 96%  
61 4% 94%  
62 4% 90%  
63 5% 85%  
64 5% 80%  
65 6% 75%  
66 9% 69%  
67 11% 60% Median
68 8% 50%  
69 8% 42% Last Result
70 5% 34%  
71 6% 28%  
72 6% 23%  
73 6% 17%  
74 3% 11%  
75 2% 8%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.4% 4%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 0.9% 99.4%  
34 2% 98.5%  
35 3% 97%  
36 4% 94%  
37 7% 90%  
38 8% 83%  
39 10% 75%  
40 9% 65%  
41 10% 57% Median
42 10% 46%  
43 9% 36%  
44 9% 27%  
45 5% 18%  
46 4% 13% Last Result
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.4% 3%  
50 0.7% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.0%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 461 100% 451–471 448–474 445–476 440–481
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 409 100% 398–419 395–422 392–425 387–430
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 393 100% 383–404 380–407 377–410 372–415
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 386 100% 376–397 372–400 370–402 365–407
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 341 5% 330–351 327–354 325–357 319–362
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 326 0% 315–336 312–339 309–342 305–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 323 0% 312–333 309–337 307–339 302–344
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 323 0% 312–334 309–337 307–339 302–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 318 0% 307–329 305–332 302–335 297–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 273 0% 264–284 260–287 258–289 252–294
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 256 0% 245–265 243–269 240–271 235–276
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 188 0% 179–197 176–200 174–203 170–207
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 187 0% 178–198 176–199 174–202 170–207

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.8%  
439 0.2% 99.7%  
440 0.1% 99.5%  
441 0.3% 99.4%  
442 0.3% 99.1%  
443 0.4% 98.9%  
444 0.5% 98%  
445 0.4% 98%  
446 1.4% 97%  
447 0.7% 96%  
448 2% 95%  
449 1.3% 94%  
450 2% 92%  
451 2% 91%  
452 4% 89%  
453 4% 85%  
454 3% 82%  
455 4% 78%  
456 4% 74%  
457 5% 70%  
458 4% 65%  
459 3% 61%  
460 6% 58% Median
461 6% 52%  
462 4% 46%  
463 7% 42%  
464 5% 35%  
465 3% 31%  
466 3% 28% Last Result
467 5% 25%  
468 2% 20%  
469 4% 18%  
470 3% 14%  
471 2% 11%  
472 3% 9%  
473 1.1% 7%  
474 1.2% 5%  
475 0.8% 4%  
476 1.0% 3%  
477 0.7% 2%  
478 0.6% 2%  
479 0.3% 1.2%  
480 0.3% 0.8%  
481 0.1% 0.5%  
482 0.1% 0.4%  
483 0.1% 0.3%  
484 0.1% 0.2%  
485 0.1% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.2% 99.7%  
388 0.2% 99.5%  
389 0.5% 99.3%  
390 0.2% 98.8%  
391 0.6% 98.6%  
392 0.5% 98%  
393 0.8% 97% Last Result
394 0.9% 97%  
395 1.2% 96%  
396 1.1% 94%  
397 2% 93%  
398 3% 92%  
399 2% 89%  
400 4% 87%  
401 3% 83%  
402 2% 80%  
403 4% 77%  
404 5% 73%  
405 2% 68%  
406 4% 66%  
407 5% 62%  
408 4% 57% Median
409 6% 52%  
410 4% 46%  
411 7% 42%  
412 3% 35%  
413 5% 32%  
414 2% 27%  
415 5% 25%  
416 3% 20%  
417 3% 18%  
418 2% 14%  
419 3% 12%  
420 1.2% 9%  
421 3% 8%  
422 1.3% 6%  
423 0.8% 4%  
424 0.8% 3%  
425 0.8% 3%  
426 0.4% 2%  
427 0.3% 1.4%  
428 0.4% 1.1%  
429 0.1% 0.7%  
430 0.2% 0.6%  
431 0.1% 0.4%  
432 0.1% 0.3%  
433 0.1% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.2% 99.6%  
373 0.2% 99.5%  
374 0.4% 99.2%  
375 0.3% 98.8%  
376 0.6% 98.5%  
377 0.6% 98%  
378 1.0% 97%  
379 0.9% 96%  
380 1.1% 95%  
381 2% 94%  
382 2% 93%  
383 2% 90%  
384 2% 88%  
385 3% 86%  
386 3% 83%  
387 3% 79%  
388 3% 76%  
389 4% 73%  
390 4% 68%  
391 6% 64%  
392 4% 58%  
393 5% 54% Median
394 5% 49%  
395 6% 45%  
396 4% 39%  
397 3% 35%  
398 5% 32%  
399 4% 27%  
400 4% 24%  
401 3% 20%  
402 3% 17%  
403 4% 14%  
404 1.2% 10%  
405 1.5% 9%  
406 2% 7%  
407 1.3% 6%  
408 0.9% 4%  
409 0.7% 4%  
410 0.9% 3%  
411 0.5% 2%  
412 0.3% 1.4%  
413 0.3% 1.0%  
414 0.2% 0.7%  
415 0.2% 0.5%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0.1% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.2% 99.7%  
365 0.2% 99.5%  
366 0.3% 99.3%  
367 0.6% 99.1%  
368 0.3% 98%  
369 0.4% 98%  
370 0.6% 98%  
371 1.1% 97%  
372 1.5% 96%  
373 1.4% 95%  
374 1.2% 93%  
375 2% 92%  
376 3% 90%  
377 2% 87%  
378 5% 85%  
379 2% 81%  
380 4% 79%  
381 5% 75%  
382 4% 70%  
383 3% 66%  
384 5% 63%  
385 5% 59%  
386 7% 53% Median
387 4% 47%  
388 4% 43%  
389 5% 39%  
390 4% 34%  
391 6% 31%  
392 4% 24%  
393 2% 21%  
394 2% 18%  
395 3% 16%  
396 2% 13%  
397 2% 10%  
398 2% 8%  
399 1.5% 7%  
400 1.3% 5%  
401 0.8% 4%  
402 0.9% 3%  
403 0.5% 2%  
404 0.4% 2%  
405 0.4% 1.3%  
406 0.3% 0.9%  
407 0.2% 0.6%  
408 0.1% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0.1% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.2% 99.6%  
320 0.2% 99.4%  
321 0.2% 99.3%  
322 0.4% 99.1%  
323 0.7% 98.7%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 1.4% 97%  
327 1.4% 96%  
328 1.0% 94%  
329 2% 93%  
330 2% 91%  
331 3% 89%  
332 2% 86%  
333 2% 84%  
334 4% 81%  
335 4% 77%  
336 3% 73%  
337 3% 70%  
338 6% 67%  
339 6% 61%  
340 3% 55% Median
341 6% 52%  
342 5% 47%  
343 6% 42%  
344 3% 36%  
345 5% 33%  
346 4% 28%  
347 4% 24%  
348 2% 21%  
349 3% 18%  
350 3% 15%  
351 2% 12%  
352 1.1% 10%  
353 2% 9%  
354 2% 7%  
355 1.0% 5% Majority
356 0.7% 4%  
357 1.1% 3%  
358 0.6% 2%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.3% 1.2%  
361 0.3% 0.9%  
362 0.2% 0.6%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0.1% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.6%  
305 0.3% 99.5%  
306 0.2% 99.2%  
307 0.4% 99.0%  
308 0.4% 98.6%  
309 0.7% 98%  
310 0.7% 97%  
311 1.1% 97%  
312 2% 96%  
313 2% 94%  
314 2% 93%  
315 3% 91%  
316 2% 88%  
317 2% 86%  
318 4% 84%  
319 4% 80%  
320 3% 77%  
321 6% 74%  
322 4% 68%  
323 5% 65%  
324 6% 59%  
325 3% 54% Median
326 6% 51%  
327 4% 45%  
328 4% 40%  
329 5% 36%  
330 4% 31%  
331 4% 28%  
332 4% 24%  
333 2% 20%  
334 3% 18%  
335 3% 14%  
336 1.3% 11%  
337 3% 10%  
338 1.4% 7%  
339 1.2% 6%  
340 1.1% 5%  
341 0.8% 4%  
342 0.8% 3%  
343 0.6% 2%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.4% 1.1%  
346 0.2% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.2% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.2% 99.6%  
303 0.3% 99.4%  
304 0.4% 99.1%  
305 0.4% 98.7%  
306 0.5% 98%  
307 0.9% 98%  
308 0.8% 97%  
309 1.3% 96%  
310 1.5% 95%  
311 2% 93%  
312 2% 92%  
313 2% 90%  
314 3% 87%  
315 2% 84%  
316 2% 82%  
317 4% 79%  
318 6% 76%  
319 4% 69%  
320 5% 66%  
321 4% 61%  
322 4% 57% Median
323 7% 53%  
324 5% 47%  
325 5% 41%  
326 3% 37%  
327 4% 34%  
328 5% 30%  
329 4% 25%  
330 2% 21%  
331 5% 19%  
332 2% 15%  
333 3% 13%  
334 2% 10%  
335 1.2% 8%  
336 1.4% 7%  
337 1.5% 5%  
338 1.1% 4%  
339 0.6% 3%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.3% 2%  
342 0.6% 2%  
343 0.3% 0.9%  
344 0.2% 0.7%  
345 0.2% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.3% 99.5%  
303 0.2% 99.3%  
304 0.3% 99.0%  
305 0.6% 98.7%  
306 0.6% 98%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 1.1% 97%  
309 1.2% 96%  
310 1.2% 95%  
311 2% 94%  
312 3% 92%  
313 1.5% 89%  
314 3% 88%  
315 4% 85%  
316 2% 81%  
317 2% 79%  
318 5% 77%  
319 6% 72%  
320 2% 66%  
321 6% 64%  
322 5% 58%  
323 4% 52% Median
324 6% 49%  
325 6% 43%  
326 2% 37%  
327 4% 35%  
328 5% 31%  
329 5% 26%  
330 2% 21%  
331 4% 20%  
332 4% 16%  
333 2% 12%  
334 2% 11%  
335 2% 8%  
336 0.6% 6%  
337 0.8% 5%  
338 1.5% 5%  
339 0.8% 3%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0.6% 2%  
342 0.4% 1.3%  
343 0.1% 0.9%  
344 0.3% 0.8%  
345 0.2% 0.5%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.2% 99.6%  
298 0.2% 99.4%  
299 0.3% 99.2%  
300 0.5% 98.8%  
301 0.5% 98%  
302 0.5% 98%  
303 0.9% 97%  
304 1.0% 96%  
305 1.2% 95%  
306 2% 94%  
307 2% 92%  
308 2% 90%  
309 4% 88%  
310 3% 84%  
311 3% 81%  
312 4% 78%  
313 3% 74%  
314 3% 70%  
315 4% 67%  
316 4% 63%  
317 4% 59%  
318 6% 55% Median
319 5% 49%  
320 4% 45%  
321 7% 40%  
322 3% 33%  
323 5% 30%  
324 3% 25%  
325 2% 22%  
326 4% 19%  
327 3% 15%  
328 2% 13%  
329 2% 11%  
330 2% 9%  
331 1.5% 7%  
332 1.3% 6%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0.8% 4%  
335 0.8% 3%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.4% 1.4%  
338 0.3% 1.0%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0.1% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.2% 99.7%  
253 0.2% 99.5%  
254 0.2% 99.3%  
255 0.2% 99.1%  
256 0.4% 98.9%  
257 0.9% 98.5%  
258 1.2% 98%  
259 0.9% 96%  
260 1.0% 95%  
261 1.3% 94%  
262 1.3% 93%  
263 1.2% 92%  
264 3% 91%  
265 5% 88%  
266 6% 84%  
267 3% 78%  
268 3% 75%  
269 3% 72%  
270 6% 69%  
271 3% 64%  
272 5% 60%  
273 7% 56% Median
274 4% 49%  
275 6% 44%  
276 2% 38%  
277 4% 36%  
278 4% 32%  
279 6% 29%  
280 5% 23%  
281 3% 18%  
282 2% 15%  
283 2% 12%  
284 2% 10%  
285 1.2% 9%  
286 2% 8%  
287 2% 6%  
288 1.0% 4%  
289 0.6% 3%  
290 0.5% 2%  
291 0.4% 2%  
292 0.3% 1.3%  
293 0.2% 1.0%  
294 0.3% 0.8%  
295 0.1% 0.5%  
296 0.1% 0.3%  
297 0.1% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.2% 99.7%  
235 0.3% 99.5%  
236 0.2% 99.2%  
237 0.4% 99.0%  
238 0.5% 98.6%  
239 0.4% 98%  
240 0.7% 98%  
241 0.8% 97%  
242 1.1% 96%  
243 2% 95%  
244 2% 94%  
245 2% 91%  
246 3% 89%  
247 4% 87%  
248 4% 82%  
249 4% 78%  
250 4% 75%  
251 4% 71%  
252 4% 67%  
253 4% 63%  
254 4% 59%  
255 4% 55% Median
256 6% 50%  
257 5% 45%  
258 5% 39%  
259 5% 35%  
260 5% 30%  
261 4% 25%  
262 5% 21%  
263 2% 16%  
264 2% 14%  
265 2% 12%  
266 1.4% 10%  
267 1.5% 8%  
268 2% 7%  
269 1.5% 5%  
270 0.7% 4%  
271 0.9% 3%  
272 0.9% 2%  
273 0.5% 1.4%  
274 0.2% 1.0%  
275 0.2% 0.7%  
276 0.1% 0.5%  
277 0.1% 0.4%  
278 0.1% 0.3%  
279 0.1% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.1% 99.6%  
170 0.3% 99.5%  
171 0.5% 99.3%  
172 0.7% 98.7%  
173 0.5% 98%  
174 0.6% 98%  
175 1.3% 97%  
176 2% 96%  
177 2% 93%  
178 1.3% 91%  
179 2% 90%  
180 4% 88%  
181 5% 83%  
182 2% 78%  
183 3% 76%  
184 5% 73%  
185 7% 67%  
186 5% 60%  
187 4% 55% Median
188 4% 52%  
189 8% 47%  
190 4% 39%  
191 5% 35%  
192 3% 30%  
193 5% 27%  
194 6% 23%  
195 3% 17%  
196 2% 14%  
197 2% 12%  
198 3% 10%  
199 2% 7%  
200 1.1% 5%  
201 0.8% 4%  
202 0.8% 3%  
203 0.9% 3%  
204 0.5% 2%  
205 0.2% 1.1%  
206 0.3% 0.9%  
207 0.2% 0.7%  
208 0.1% 0.5%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0% 0.2%  
211 0.1% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.7%  
169 0.2% 99.7%  
170 0.5% 99.5%  
171 0.5% 99.0%  
172 0.1% 98.5%  
173 0.4% 98%  
174 2% 98%  
175 1.1% 96%  
176 0.6% 95%  
177 2% 95%  
178 3% 93%  
179 3% 89%  
180 1.4% 86%  
181 3% 85%  
182 7% 82%  
183 6% 75%  
184 1.4% 69%  
185 3% 68%  
186 10% 65%  
187 6% 55%  
188 2% 49% Median
189 3% 47%  
190 10% 44%  
191 5% 35%  
192 1.4% 30%  
193 3% 28%  
194 8% 25%  
195 4% 17%  
196 0.9% 14%  
197 2% 13%  
198 5% 11%  
199 2% 7%  
200 0.4% 5%  
201 1.0% 4%  
202 1.1% 3%  
203 0.7% 2%  
204 0.1% 1.5%  
205 0.4% 1.3%  
206 0.4% 0.9%  
207 0.2% 0.6%  
208 0% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0.1% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations