Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 1–4 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.6–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.8–23.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.7% 19.6–21.9% 19.3–22.2% 19.0–22.5% 18.5–23.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.5% 12.5–14.5% 12.3–14.8% 12.1–15.0% 11.6–15.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.8% 4.2–5.5% 4.1–5.6% 3.9–5.8% 3.7–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 149–166 148–169 146–171 142–176
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 156 148–165 145–166 143–170 138–174
Alternative für Deutschland 94 121 113–129 111–131 110–132 105–137
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 101 94–109 91–112 91–113 88–116
Die Linke 69 76 69–82 67–84 66–85 63–89
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 61 55–66 53–68 52–70 50–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 32–41 31–42 29–43 28–46

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.2% 99.7%  
142 0.4% 99.5%  
143 0.4% 99.1%  
144 0.6% 98.7%  
145 0.3% 98%  
146 0.6% 98%  
147 1.2% 97%  
148 4% 96%  
149 3% 92%  
150 2% 89%  
151 3% 87%  
152 2% 84%  
153 4% 82%  
154 13% 78%  
155 4% 65%  
156 4% 61%  
157 3% 57%  
158 7% 54% Median
159 11% 47%  
160 2% 37%  
161 7% 34%  
162 2% 28%  
163 3% 26%  
164 5% 23%  
165 4% 18%  
166 6% 14%  
167 1.5% 8%  
168 0.5% 6%  
169 0.9% 6%  
170 1.5% 5%  
171 2% 3%  
172 0.3% 2%  
173 0.2% 1.4%  
174 0.3% 1.2%  
175 0.3% 0.9%  
176 0.2% 0.6%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.3% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.6%  
139 0.2% 99.4%  
140 0.2% 99.2%  
141 0.5% 99.0%  
142 0.7% 98.5%  
143 0.4% 98%  
144 1.1% 97%  
145 2% 96%  
146 2% 94%  
147 2% 92%  
148 5% 90%  
149 4% 85%  
150 3% 81%  
151 4% 79%  
152 3% 75%  
153 6% 72%  
154 4% 66%  
155 6% 62%  
156 11% 55% Median
157 5% 45%  
158 5% 40%  
159 5% 35%  
160 4% 30%  
161 2% 26%  
162 6% 24%  
163 6% 18%  
164 2% 13%  
165 4% 11%  
166 3% 7%  
167 0.8% 5%  
168 0.7% 4%  
169 0.6% 3%  
170 0.4% 3%  
171 0.5% 2%  
172 0.6% 2%  
173 0.5% 1.1%  
174 0.2% 0.6%  
175 0.1% 0.4%  
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.3% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.4%  
107 0.2% 99.1%  
108 0.3% 98.9%  
109 1.0% 98.5%  
110 1.4% 98%  
111 1.2% 96%  
112 2% 95%  
113 3% 93%  
114 5% 90%  
115 5% 85%  
116 5% 79%  
117 4% 74%  
118 5% 70%  
119 4% 65%  
120 7% 62%  
121 7% 55% Median
122 11% 48%  
123 6% 37%  
124 2% 31%  
125 2% 29%  
126 7% 27%  
127 9% 20%  
128 1.1% 11%  
129 1.2% 10%  
130 2% 9%  
131 3% 7%  
132 2% 4%  
133 0.4% 2%  
134 0.3% 2%  
135 0.5% 1.5%  
136 0.3% 0.9%  
137 0.3% 0.6%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 0.9% 99.3%  
90 0.6% 98%  
91 3% 98%  
92 1.4% 95%  
93 3% 93%  
94 3% 91%  
95 6% 88%  
96 5% 82%  
97 4% 77%  
98 6% 73%  
99 4% 67%  
100 8% 62%  
101 5% 54% Median
102 8% 49%  
103 4% 42%  
104 4% 38%  
105 3% 34%  
106 11% 31%  
107 5% 20%  
108 2% 15%  
109 4% 13%  
110 2% 9%  
111 0.9% 7%  
112 3% 6%  
113 2% 4%  
114 0.5% 2%  
115 0.5% 1.5%  
116 0.5% 1.0%  
117 0.2% 0.5%  
118 0% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.6%  
64 0.4% 99.4%  
65 0.4% 99.0%  
66 1.1% 98.6%  
67 3% 97%  
68 2% 95%  
69 4% 92% Last Result
70 4% 88%  
71 4% 85%  
72 6% 81%  
73 4% 75%  
74 11% 71%  
75 5% 60%  
76 12% 55% Median
77 8% 43%  
78 5% 35%  
79 4% 29%  
80 7% 25%  
81 6% 18%  
82 5% 13%  
83 3% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 0.8% 3%  
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.3% 1.3%  
88 0.2% 1.0%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.9% 99.5%  
51 0.7% 98.7%  
52 0.9% 98%  
53 5% 97%  
54 2% 92%  
55 3% 90%  
56 5% 87%  
57 11% 82%  
58 5% 71%  
59 8% 66%  
60 7% 58%  
61 8% 51% Median
62 11% 43%  
63 7% 31%  
64 5% 24%  
65 6% 19%  
66 4% 13%  
67 2% 9%  
68 2% 7%  
69 1.3% 4%  
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.0%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.6%  
29 2% 99.2%  
30 2% 97%  
31 3% 95%  
32 6% 92%  
33 15% 86%  
34 5% 71%  
35 7% 66%  
36 11% 59% Median
37 17% 48%  
38 6% 31%  
39 4% 25%  
40 6% 20%  
41 7% 15%  
42 4% 7%  
43 1.0% 3%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.9% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 452 100% 442–461 440–464 437–467 432–472
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 410 100% 401–421 398–425 395–427 390–431
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 374 99.2% 363–384 359–387 356–389 354–395
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 356 54% 345–365 340–366 338–372 334–374
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 352 28% 340–361 336–364 333–366 330–373
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 335 0.8% 325–346 322–350 320–353 314–355
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 319 0% 310–332 307–335 304–337 300–341
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 313 0% 302–325 299–326 297–329 292–334
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 295 0% 283–304 281–307 278–309 273–314
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 260 0% 250–272 245–272 245–276 240–280
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 253 0% 242–263 240–267 238–269 234–272
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 177 0% 168–187 165–190 163–191 160–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 161 0% 153–171 151–175 149–177 145–180

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
427 0% 100%  
428 0.1% 99.9%  
429 0.1% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.8%  
431 0.1% 99.7%  
432 0.2% 99.6%  
433 0.2% 99.4%  
434 0.3% 99.2%  
435 0.1% 98.8%  
436 0.7% 98.7%  
437 1.0% 98%  
438 0.8% 97%  
439 1.0% 96%  
440 1.2% 95%  
441 2% 94%  
442 3% 92%  
443 2% 90%  
444 5% 87%  
445 3% 82%  
446 3% 80%  
447 2% 77%  
448 5% 75%  
449 11% 70%  
450 2% 59%  
451 5% 57% Median
452 6% 52%  
453 8% 46%  
454 5% 38%  
455 2% 33%  
456 5% 31%  
457 6% 26%  
458 4% 20%  
459 2% 16%  
460 2% 14%  
461 2% 11%  
462 1.5% 9%  
463 1.2% 8%  
464 2% 7%  
465 0.8% 4%  
466 0.6% 4% Last Result
467 0.8% 3%  
468 0.5% 2%  
469 0.4% 2%  
470 0.3% 1.2%  
471 0.2% 1.0%  
472 0.3% 0.7%  
473 0.2% 0.5%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.8%  
390 0.2% 99.7%  
391 0.1% 99.4%  
392 0.1% 99.3%  
393 0.1% 99.3% Last Result
394 1.2% 99.2%  
395 0.6% 98%  
396 0.5% 97%  
397 0.5% 97%  
398 1.5% 96%  
399 3% 95%  
400 0.9% 92%  
401 6% 91%  
402 1.2% 86%  
403 1.2% 84%  
404 2% 83%  
405 12% 81%  
406 3% 69%  
407 0.7% 66%  
408 3% 65%  
409 6% 62%  
410 9% 56%  
411 3% 47% Median
412 4% 45%  
413 5% 41%  
414 2% 36%  
415 6% 34%  
416 8% 28%  
417 2% 20%  
418 1.3% 18%  
419 0.6% 17%  
420 5% 16%  
421 1.3% 11%  
422 2% 9%  
423 0.2% 7%  
424 0.6% 7%  
425 3% 7%  
426 1.0% 4%  
427 1.1% 3%  
428 0.2% 2%  
429 0.2% 1.5%  
430 0.2% 1.3%  
431 0.6% 1.0%  
432 0.1% 0.4%  
433 0% 0.3%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0.1% 0.2%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
348 0% 100%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0.1% 99.6%  
354 0.4% 99.5%  
355 0.3% 99.2% Majority
356 2% 98.8%  
357 0.2% 97%  
358 2% 97%  
359 1.4% 95%  
360 0.6% 94%  
361 0.8% 93%  
362 0.8% 92%  
363 4% 92%  
364 3% 88%  
365 2% 85%  
366 5% 83%  
367 2% 78%  
368 1.4% 76%  
369 3% 75%  
370 6% 72%  
371 4% 67%  
372 3% 62%  
373 8% 59%  
374 4% 51% Median
375 7% 47%  
376 5% 39%  
377 0.7% 34%  
378 5% 34%  
379 2% 29%  
380 4% 27%  
381 4% 23%  
382 3% 20%  
383 5% 17%  
384 2% 12%  
385 1.5% 10%  
386 2% 8%  
387 2% 7%  
388 0.5% 4%  
389 2% 4%  
390 0.5% 2%  
391 0.6% 2%  
392 0.3% 1.1%  
393 0.2% 0.8%  
394 0% 0.6%  
395 0.2% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0.1% 100%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0% 99.6%  
334 0.1% 99.6%  
335 0% 99.5%  
336 0.3% 99.5%  
337 0.3% 99.2%  
338 2% 98.9%  
339 1.4% 96%  
340 2% 95%  
341 0.7% 93%  
342 0.1% 93%  
343 0.2% 92%  
344 0.4% 92%  
345 2% 92%  
346 4% 90%  
347 5% 86%  
348 6% 80%  
349 7% 74%  
350 1.2% 68%  
351 1.1% 66%  
352 0.2% 65%  
353 2% 65%  
354 10% 63% Median
355 3% 54% Majority
356 12% 51%  
357 12% 39%  
358 5% 27%  
359 0.2% 21%  
360 0.6% 21%  
361 2% 20%  
362 2% 19%  
363 5% 17%  
364 2% 12%  
365 5% 10%  
366 0.8% 5%  
367 0.5% 4%  
368 0.1% 4%  
369 0.3% 4%  
370 0.1% 3%  
371 0.7% 3%  
372 0.8% 3%  
373 1.0% 2%  
374 0.3% 0.7%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0.1% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0.1% 100%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.1% 99.6%  
330 0.2% 99.6%  
331 0.2% 99.4%  
332 0.3% 99.2%  
333 2% 98.9%  
334 0.2% 97%  
335 0.7% 97%  
336 1.3% 96%  
337 1.5% 95%  
338 1.0% 93%  
339 0.4% 92%  
340 2% 92%  
341 2% 90%  
342 3% 88%  
343 8% 85%  
344 5% 77%  
345 4% 72%  
346 3% 68%  
347 5% 66%  
348 2% 61%  
349 4% 59%  
350 3% 55% Median
351 2% 53%  
352 8% 50%  
353 7% 43%  
354 8% 36%  
355 6% 28% Majority
356 0.7% 22%  
357 6% 21%  
358 2% 16%  
359 0.9% 14%  
360 3% 13%  
361 0.4% 10%  
362 0.8% 10%  
363 4% 9%  
364 0.6% 5%  
365 2% 5%  
366 0.7% 3%  
367 0.5% 2%  
368 0.4% 2%  
369 0.2% 1.3%  
370 0.3% 1.0%  
371 0.2% 0.7%  
372 0% 0.5%  
373 0.2% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0.1% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.2% 99.7%  
315 0% 99.5%  
316 0.2% 99.4%  
317 0.3% 99.2%  
318 0.6% 98.9%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 2% 98%  
321 0.5% 96%  
322 2% 96%  
323 2% 93%  
324 1.5% 92%  
325 2% 90%  
326 5% 88%  
327 3% 83%  
328 4% 80%  
329 4% 77%  
330 2% 73%  
331 5% 71%  
332 0.7% 66%  
333 5% 66%  
334 7% 61%  
335 4% 53% Median
336 8% 49%  
337 3% 41%  
338 4% 38%  
339 6% 33%  
340 3% 28%  
341 1.4% 25%  
342 2% 24%  
343 5% 22%  
344 2% 17%  
345 3% 15%  
346 4% 12%  
347 0.8% 8%  
348 0.8% 8%  
349 0.6% 7%  
350 1.4% 6%  
351 2% 5%  
352 0.2% 3%  
353 2% 3%  
354 0.3% 1.2%  
355 0.4% 0.8% Majority
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
301 0.6% 99.4%  
302 0.4% 98.9%  
303 0.6% 98%  
304 0.4% 98%  
305 0.5% 97%  
306 0.9% 97%  
307 2% 96%  
308 0.4% 94%  
309 3% 93%  
310 3% 91%  
311 7% 88%  
312 2% 81%  
313 2% 80%  
314 7% 77%  
315 2% 71%  
316 3% 68%  
317 3% 65%  
318 5% 63%  
319 8% 57%  
320 2% 50% Median
321 5% 48%  
322 7% 43%  
323 7% 36%  
324 1.4% 29%  
325 4% 28%  
326 3% 23%  
327 1.4% 20%  
328 2% 19%  
329 2% 16%  
330 4% 14%  
331 0.6% 11%  
332 1.0% 10%  
333 3% 9%  
334 1.5% 7%  
335 0.5% 5%  
336 1.3% 5%  
337 2% 3%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.5% 1.4%  
340 0.3% 0.9%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0% 0.5%  
343 0.2% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0.1% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.2% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.3% 99.4%  
294 0.3% 99.2%  
295 0.4% 98.8%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0.8% 98%  
298 2% 97%  
299 2% 95%  
300 0.4% 94%  
301 3% 93%  
302 3% 91%  
303 1.3% 88%  
304 2% 86%  
305 3% 84%  
306 4% 81%  
307 2% 77%  
308 2% 75%  
309 6% 73%  
310 3% 67%  
311 8% 65%  
312 5% 57%  
313 5% 52% Median
314 2% 46%  
315 4% 45%  
316 5% 40%  
317 4% 35%  
318 5% 31%  
319 3% 26%  
320 2% 23%  
321 2% 22%  
322 3% 20%  
323 3% 17%  
324 1.2% 14%  
325 4% 12%  
326 5% 9%  
327 0.5% 4%  
328 0.8% 3%  
329 0.3% 3%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.6% 2%  
332 0.5% 1.3%  
333 0.3% 0.8%  
334 0.1% 0.6%  
335 0.3% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.2% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.5%  
275 0.1% 99.4%  
276 0.2% 99.3%  
277 0.4% 99.1%  
278 1.3% 98.7%  
279 0.7% 97%  
280 1.2% 97%  
281 2% 95%  
282 2% 94%  
283 2% 91%  
284 1.0% 89%  
285 5% 88%  
286 2% 83%  
287 3% 82%  
288 0.8% 78%  
289 3% 78%  
290 3% 75%  
291 5% 71%  
292 7% 66%  
293 7% 59% Median
294 2% 52%  
295 10% 50%  
296 9% 41%  
297 2% 32%  
298 3% 30%  
299 8% 26%  
300 2% 18%  
301 1.1% 16%  
302 2% 15%  
303 2% 12%  
304 1.4% 11%  
305 0.9% 9%  
306 3% 8%  
307 1.0% 5%  
308 0.5% 4%  
309 2% 4%  
310 1.1% 2%  
311 0.1% 1.2%  
312 0.2% 1.1%  
313 0.3% 0.8%  
314 0.2% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.2% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.6%  
240 0% 99.5%  
241 0.3% 99.5%  
242 0.2% 99.2%  
243 0.5% 99.0%  
244 0.5% 98%  
245 4% 98%  
246 1.1% 94%  
247 0.2% 93%  
248 0.4% 93%  
249 2% 92%  
250 6% 91%  
251 1.4% 85%  
252 2% 83%  
253 2% 82%  
254 8% 79%  
255 0.5% 71%  
256 2% 70%  
257 8% 68%  
258 5% 61%  
259 3% 56% Median
260 16% 53%  
261 4% 36%  
262 0.6% 33%  
263 0.6% 32%  
264 3% 31%  
265 5% 29%  
266 7% 23%  
267 2% 17%  
268 2% 15%  
269 1.1% 13%  
270 0.7% 12%  
271 0.7% 11%  
272 6% 10%  
273 0.8% 5%  
274 0.2% 4%  
275 0.1% 4%  
276 2% 3%  
277 0.4% 1.3%  
278 0.1% 0.9%  
279 0.1% 0.8%  
280 0.2% 0.7%  
281 0.2% 0.5%  
282 0% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.7%  
233 0% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.3% 99.5%  
236 0.2% 99.2%  
237 0.6% 99.0%  
238 1.3% 98%  
239 0.6% 97%  
240 3% 96%  
241 1.4% 94%  
242 5% 92%  
243 2% 87%  
244 4% 85%  
245 3% 81%  
246 1.4% 79%  
247 1.3% 77%  
248 4% 76%  
249 4% 72%  
250 3% 68%  
251 8% 65%  
252 4% 56%  
253 5% 53% Median
254 4% 48%  
255 6% 44%  
256 8% 38%  
257 5% 29%  
258 2% 25%  
259 7% 22%  
260 2% 16%  
261 2% 14%  
262 1.2% 12%  
263 1.3% 11%  
264 0.6% 10%  
265 2% 9%  
266 0.7% 7%  
267 3% 6%  
268 0.8% 4%  
269 0.3% 3%  
270 0.8% 2%  
271 1.0% 2%  
272 0.3% 0.7%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0.1% 0.3%  
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.3% 99.8%  
160 0.2% 99.5%  
161 0.3% 99.3%  
162 0.3% 99.1%  
163 2% 98.8%  
164 0.9% 97%  
165 1.2% 96%  
166 0.9% 95%  
167 3% 94%  
168 3% 91%  
169 4% 89%  
170 3% 85%  
171 3% 82%  
172 7% 79%  
173 6% 72%  
174 4% 66%  
175 4% 62%  
176 5% 58%  
177 5% 53% Median
178 4% 48%  
179 5% 44%  
180 5% 39%  
181 2% 34%  
182 9% 32%  
183 3% 23%  
184 3% 20%  
185 1.2% 17%  
186 2% 16%  
187 6% 14%  
188 2% 8%  
189 0.5% 6%  
190 2% 5%  
191 1.0% 3%  
192 1.0% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.5%  
194 0.2% 1.1%  
195 0.3% 0.9%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0.3% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.3% 99.4%  
147 0.3% 99.2%  
148 1.3% 98.9%  
149 0.5% 98%  
150 2% 97%  
151 3% 95%  
152 1.1% 93%  
153 2% 92%  
154 5% 89%  
155 5% 84%  
156 2% 80%  
157 10% 78%  
158 2% 68%  
159 6% 66%  
160 5% 59%  
161 5% 55%  
162 3% 50% Median
163 3% 47%  
164 7% 43%  
165 5% 36%  
166 3% 31%  
167 2% 28%  
168 8% 26%  
169 4% 18%  
170 2% 15%  
171 4% 13%  
172 1.0% 9%  
173 2% 8%  
174 0.5% 7%  
175 3% 6%  
176 0.7% 3%  
177 1.3% 3%  
178 0.4% 1.4%  
179 0.1% 1.0%  
180 0.5% 0.8%  
181 0.2% 0.4%  
182 0% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations