Opinion Poll by Kantar for Bild am Sonntag, 30 October–6 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.1% 19.8–22.5% 19.4–23.0% 19.1–23.3% 18.4–24.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.4% 16.4–19.8% 16.1–20.1% 15.5–20.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.6–18.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 12.8–15.2% 12.5–15.6% 12.3–15.9% 11.8–16.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.2–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 160 149–169 145–170 143–174 139–180
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 127–145 124–148 122–151 117–156
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 112–129 109–131 107–134 103–139
Alternative für Deutschland 94 105 96–114 95–116 93–119 89–123
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 76 67–85 66–86 66–86 61–92
Die Linke 69 76 68–82 66–84 66–88 61–92
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 37 32–43 31–44 30–45 27–49

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.2% 99.8%  
138 0.1% 99.6%  
139 0.2% 99.6%  
140 0.2% 99.4%  
141 0.5% 99.1%  
142 0.5% 98.7%  
143 1.0% 98%  
144 0.3% 97%  
145 3% 97%  
146 1.0% 94%  
147 2% 93%  
148 1.3% 91%  
149 2% 90%  
150 3% 88%  
151 0.9% 85%  
152 1.5% 84%  
153 3% 82%  
154 2% 79%  
155 3% 77%  
156 7% 74%  
157 4% 68%  
158 5% 64%  
159 7% 59%  
160 6% 52% Median
161 8% 46%  
162 3% 37%  
163 4% 35%  
164 4% 31%  
165 3% 27%  
166 4% 24%  
167 6% 20%  
168 4% 14%  
169 4% 11%  
170 2% 6%  
171 0.5% 5%  
172 0.7% 4%  
173 0.6% 3%  
174 0.4% 3%  
175 0.1% 2%  
176 0.5% 2%  
177 0.4% 2%  
178 0.3% 1.3%  
179 0.4% 1.0%  
180 0.2% 0.6%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.2%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0.1% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.5% 99.6%  
118 0.3% 99.2%  
119 0.2% 98.9%  
120 0.4% 98.7%  
121 0.6% 98%  
122 0.7% 98%  
123 1.4% 97%  
124 0.9% 96%  
125 2% 95%  
126 2% 93%  
127 3% 91%  
128 2% 88%  
129 6% 86%  
130 4% 79%  
131 2% 75%  
132 8% 73%  
133 3% 65%  
134 5% 63%  
135 8% 58% Median
136 8% 49%  
137 2% 42%  
138 3% 39%  
139 2% 37%  
140 8% 35%  
141 5% 27%  
142 2% 21%  
143 3% 20%  
144 4% 17%  
145 3% 13%  
146 1.2% 10%  
147 3% 9%  
148 0.6% 5%  
149 1.3% 5%  
150 0.3% 3%  
151 0.9% 3%  
152 0.6% 2%  
153 0.6% 2%  
154 0.2% 1.0%  
155 0.2% 0.8%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.2% 0.5%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 0.6% 99.4%  
105 0.2% 98.9%  
106 0.9% 98.7%  
107 1.0% 98%  
108 0.8% 97%  
109 1.4% 96%  
110 1.2% 95%  
111 2% 93%  
112 4% 91%  
113 1.3% 87%  
114 6% 86%  
115 2% 80%  
116 9% 79%  
117 5% 69%  
118 4% 65%  
119 10% 61%  
120 4% 52% Median
121 8% 48%  
122 5% 39%  
123 5% 34%  
124 5% 29%  
125 3% 23%  
126 2% 20%  
127 5% 18%  
128 1.0% 13%  
129 6% 12%  
130 1.1% 7%  
131 0.9% 6%  
132 1.0% 5%  
133 1.0% 4%  
134 0.8% 3%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.2% 2%  
137 0.7% 1.4%  
138 0.1% 0.7%  
139 0.1% 0.6%  
140 0.1% 0.5%  
141 0% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.7%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0.3% 99.5%  
91 0.3% 99.1%  
92 0.9% 98.8%  
93 2% 98%  
94 0.4% 96% Last Result
95 2% 95%  
96 4% 93%  
97 2% 89%  
98 1.3% 86%  
99 5% 85%  
100 2% 81%  
101 5% 78%  
102 7% 73%  
103 6% 66%  
104 4% 60%  
105 6% 56% Median
106 9% 50%  
107 3% 41%  
108 3% 38%  
109 6% 35%  
110 6% 29%  
111 7% 23%  
112 3% 16%  
113 2% 13%  
114 2% 11%  
115 3% 9%  
116 1.3% 6%  
117 1.1% 5%  
118 0.9% 4%  
119 0.7% 3%  
120 0.9% 2%  
121 0.1% 1.1%  
122 0.4% 1.0%  
123 0.1% 0.6%  
124 0.1% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.4%  
126 0.2% 0.4%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.1% 99.7%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 0.1% 99.3%  
63 0.3% 99.2%  
64 0.6% 99.0%  
65 0.6% 98%  
66 4% 98%  
67 4% 94%  
68 8% 90%  
69 2% 82%  
70 2% 80%  
71 1.0% 77%  
72 0.7% 76%  
73 4% 76%  
74 4% 71%  
75 8% 67%  
76 21% 59% Median
77 9% 38%  
78 9% 29%  
79 2% 20%  
80 1.0% 18% Last Result
81 0.8% 17%  
82 0.9% 16%  
83 2% 15%  
84 2% 13%  
85 5% 11%  
86 4% 6%  
87 1.2% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.2%  
89 0.1% 0.8%  
90 0.1% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.5%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.6%  
62 0.6% 99.4%  
63 0.5% 98.8%  
64 0.3% 98%  
65 0.3% 98%  
66 3% 98%  
67 4% 95%  
68 1.4% 91%  
69 3% 89% Last Result
70 13% 86%  
71 6% 73%  
72 3% 67%  
73 5% 65%  
74 4% 59%  
75 1.3% 55%  
76 4% 54% Median
77 13% 49%  
78 2% 36%  
79 5% 34%  
80 8% 29%  
81 10% 21%  
82 1.4% 11%  
83 4% 10%  
84 2% 6%  
85 0.9% 5%  
86 0.3% 4%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 0.2% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.4%  
91 0.4% 0.9%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 0.4% 99.5%  
29 1.2% 99.1%  
30 2% 98%  
31 2% 96%  
32 4% 94%  
33 8% 89%  
34 6% 82%  
35 10% 76%  
36 14% 65%  
37 12% 52% Median
38 4% 40%  
39 11% 36%  
40 5% 25%  
41 6% 20%  
42 2% 14%  
43 5% 12%  
44 3% 7%  
45 2% 4%  
46 0.6% 2% Last Result
47 0.6% 2%  
48 0.4% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.4%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 452 100% 442–463 439–467 435–470 429–475
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 408 100% 396–420 391–424 388–425 383–431
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 392 100% 381–404 378–407 373–409 369–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 377 99.2% 366–391 361–392 359–396 353–401
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 332 0.8% 320–344 315–348 313–351 308–356
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 333 0.9% 320–345 316–348 313–350 307–356
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 332 0.8% 318–343 317–348 313–350 308–356
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 315 0% 307–327 303–331 300–334 292–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 302 0% 290–313 286–318 283–320 278–326
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 272 0% 259–282 258–285 256–291 247–295
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 256 0% 247–269 242–270 238–276 233–278
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 196 0% 185–206 182–210 180–213 175–218
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 195 0% 184–206 182–210 179–212 175–219

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0.2% 99.8%  
428 0% 99.7%  
429 0.2% 99.6%  
430 0.2% 99.4%  
431 0.2% 99.2%  
432 0.2% 99.0%  
433 0.1% 98.9%  
434 0.4% 98.8%  
435 0.9% 98%  
436 0.7% 97%  
437 0.6% 97%  
438 0.6% 96%  
439 1.1% 96%  
440 2% 95%  
441 2% 93%  
442 2% 91%  
443 3% 89%  
444 0.5% 85%  
445 3% 85%  
446 6% 82%  
447 3% 76%  
448 2% 73%  
449 3% 72%  
450 8% 69%  
451 3% 61%  
452 10% 58% Median
453 1.4% 48%  
454 5% 46%  
455 6% 41%  
456 3% 35%  
457 6% 32%  
458 4% 26%  
459 5% 22%  
460 2% 17%  
461 3% 15%  
462 1.0% 12%  
463 2% 11%  
464 0.8% 10%  
465 2% 9%  
466 0.4% 6% Last Result
467 2% 6%  
468 0.8% 4%  
469 0.3% 3%  
470 1.0% 3%  
471 0.2% 2%  
472 0.6% 2%  
473 0.1% 1.3%  
474 0.2% 1.2%  
475 0.5% 1.0%  
476 0.1% 0.5%  
477 0.2% 0.4%  
478 0.1% 0.3%  
479 0% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.2%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.2% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.7%  
381 0% 99.6%  
382 0% 99.6%  
383 0.1% 99.5%  
384 0.1% 99.4%  
385 0.4% 99.3%  
386 0.2% 98.9%  
387 1.2% 98.8%  
388 0.1% 98%  
389 0.1% 97%  
390 0.6% 97%  
391 2% 97%  
392 2% 95%  
393 0.6% 93% Last Result
394 0.4% 92%  
395 1.0% 92%  
396 1.1% 91%  
397 0.5% 90%  
398 1.1% 89%  
399 7% 88%  
400 4% 82%  
401 0.3% 78%  
402 0.3% 77%  
403 3% 77%  
404 12% 74%  
405 7% 62%  
406 2% 55%  
407 2% 53%  
408 3% 51% Median
409 2% 48%  
410 0.8% 46%  
411 5% 46%  
412 14% 41%  
413 1.1% 27%  
414 0.4% 26%  
415 2% 26%  
416 6% 24%  
417 5% 18%  
418 1.2% 12%  
419 0.9% 11%  
420 1.4% 10%  
421 0.7% 9%  
422 0.3% 8%  
423 0.6% 8%  
424 4% 7%  
425 1.0% 3%  
426 0.1% 2%  
427 0.1% 2%  
428 0.3% 2%  
429 0.4% 1.4%  
430 0.5% 1.0%  
431 0.1% 0.5%  
432 0.1% 0.4%  
433 0.1% 0.3%  
434 0% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0.1% 0.2%  
438 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.7%  
368 0.1% 99.6%  
369 0.3% 99.5%  
370 0.2% 99.2%  
371 0.5% 99.0%  
372 0.2% 98%  
373 1.1% 98%  
374 0.7% 97%  
375 0.2% 97%  
376 0.4% 96%  
377 0.8% 96%  
378 2% 95%  
379 2% 93%  
380 0.5% 91%  
381 1.5% 91%  
382 3% 89%  
383 5% 86%  
384 2% 81%  
385 2% 79%  
386 1.2% 77%  
387 2% 76%  
388 8% 74%  
389 2% 66%  
390 5% 64%  
391 8% 58%  
392 3% 51%  
393 2% 47% Median
394 2% 46%  
395 7% 44%  
396 4% 37%  
397 3% 33%  
398 2% 30%  
399 6% 28%  
400 7% 22%  
401 2% 16%  
402 0.4% 13%  
403 2% 13%  
404 4% 11%  
405 1.1% 7%  
406 1.0% 6%  
407 0.7% 5%  
408 1.5% 4%  
409 0.6% 3%  
410 0.3% 2%  
411 0.4% 2%  
412 0.5% 2%  
413 0.3% 1.2%  
414 0.1% 0.9%  
415 0.1% 0.8%  
416 0.2% 0.7%  
417 0.1% 0.5%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0% 99.7%  
353 0.4% 99.6%  
354 0.1% 99.3%  
355 0.3% 99.2% Majority
356 0.8% 98.9%  
357 0.2% 98%  
358 0.1% 98%  
359 1.0% 98%  
360 0.3% 97%  
361 2% 97%  
362 0.4% 95%  
363 1.4% 95%  
364 0.5% 93%  
365 2% 93%  
366 0.8% 90%  
367 4% 89%  
368 3% 85%  
369 2% 82%  
370 1.3% 80%  
371 2% 78%  
372 9% 76%  
373 3% 67%  
374 1.5% 64%  
375 3% 62%  
376 4% 60%  
377 10% 56%  
378 1.0% 46% Median
379 2% 45%  
380 1.5% 43%  
381 6% 41%  
382 2% 35%  
383 9% 34%  
384 1.0% 25%  
385 4% 24%  
386 4% 20%  
387 2% 16%  
388 3% 14%  
389 0.7% 11%  
390 0.4% 11%  
391 4% 10%  
392 0.9% 6%  
393 0.5% 5%  
394 0.7% 4%  
395 0.3% 4%  
396 1.3% 3%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.4% 1.4%  
400 0.4% 1.0%  
401 0.2% 0.6%  
402 0% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.7%  
307 0% 99.6%  
308 0.5% 99.6%  
309 0.3% 99.1%  
310 0.1% 98.8%  
311 0.1% 98.6%  
312 0.3% 98.6%  
313 1.5% 98%  
314 0.8% 97%  
315 1.0% 96%  
316 0.7% 95%  
317 2% 94%  
318 0.7% 92%  
319 2% 92%  
320 0.9% 90%  
321 1.1% 89%  
322 1.2% 88%  
323 6% 87%  
324 7% 81%  
325 0.9% 74%  
326 0.7% 73%  
327 6% 72%  
328 5% 66%  
329 4% 61%  
330 0.9% 57%  
331 0.5% 56% Median
332 14% 56%  
333 5% 42%  
334 1.0% 37%  
335 2% 36%  
336 3% 33%  
337 2% 30%  
338 4% 28%  
339 4% 24%  
340 2% 20%  
341 3% 18%  
342 3% 15%  
343 2% 13%  
344 2% 10%  
345 0.5% 8%  
346 0.5% 8%  
347 2% 7%  
348 2% 5%  
349 0.4% 4%  
350 0.2% 3%  
351 0.7% 3%  
352 1.2% 2%  
353 0.1% 1.0%  
354 0.1% 0.9%  
355 0.1% 0.8% Majority
356 0.2% 0.7%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0.1% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.2% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.3% 99.4%  
309 0.1% 99.2%  
310 0.3% 99.0%  
311 0.5% 98.8%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.7% 98% Last Result
314 0.5% 97%  
315 0.3% 97%  
316 2% 97%  
317 0.3% 95%  
318 2% 95%  
319 0.7% 92%  
320 2% 92%  
321 1.4% 90%  
322 2% 88%  
323 2% 86%  
324 4% 84%  
325 0.9% 80%  
326 5% 79%  
327 1.4% 74%  
328 4% 72%  
329 8% 68%  
330 3% 60%  
331 3% 57%  
332 2% 55% Median
333 6% 52%  
334 0.8% 46%  
335 3% 45%  
336 10% 42%  
337 3% 32%  
338 3% 29%  
339 6% 26%  
340 1.3% 20%  
341 4% 19%  
342 1.1% 15%  
343 2% 14%  
344 0.9% 12%  
345 2% 11%  
346 0.7% 9%  
347 3% 8%  
348 0.7% 5%  
349 2% 5%  
350 0.3% 3%  
351 0.5% 2%  
352 0.1% 2%  
353 0.6% 2%  
354 0.1% 1.0%  
355 0.4% 0.9% Majority
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.7%  
308 0.2% 99.7%  
309 0.4% 99.4%  
310 0.4% 99.0%  
311 0.5% 98.6%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 1.3% 98%  
314 0.3% 97%  
315 0.7% 96%  
316 0.5% 96%  
317 0.9% 95%  
318 4% 94%  
319 0.4% 90%  
320 0.7% 89%  
321 3% 89%  
322 2% 86%  
323 4% 84%  
324 4% 80%  
325 1.0% 76%  
326 9% 75%  
327 2% 66%  
328 6% 65%  
329 1.5% 59%  
330 2% 57%  
331 1.0% 55% Median
332 10% 54%  
333 4% 44%  
334 3% 40%  
335 1.5% 38%  
336 3% 36%  
337 9% 33%  
338 2% 24%  
339 1.3% 22%  
340 2% 20%  
341 3% 18%  
342 4% 15%  
343 0.8% 11%  
344 2% 10%  
345 0.5% 7%  
346 1.4% 7%  
347 0.4% 5%  
348 2% 5%  
349 0.3% 3%  
350 1.0% 3%  
351 0.1% 2%  
352 0.2% 2%  
353 0.8% 2%  
354 0.3% 1.1%  
355 0.1% 0.8% Majority
356 0.4% 0.7%  
357 0% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.2% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.1% 99.5%  
294 0.2% 99.3%  
295 0.2% 99.2%  
296 0.4% 99.0%  
297 0.4% 98.5%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.2% 98%  
300 2% 98%  
301 0.1% 96%  
302 0.5% 96%  
303 0.5% 95%  
304 1.2% 95%  
305 0.6% 94%  
306 0.6% 93%  
307 3% 92%  
308 5% 89%  
309 3% 84%  
310 2% 81%  
311 4% 79%  
312 8% 75%  
313 4% 67%  
314 7% 63%  
315 8% 56%  
316 2% 48%  
317 2% 46% Median
318 2% 44%  
319 4% 43%  
320 3% 39%  
321 4% 36%  
322 8% 32%  
323 4% 24%  
324 1.1% 20%  
325 1.3% 19%  
326 5% 18%  
327 5% 13%  
328 1.5% 8%  
329 0.7% 7%  
330 1.2% 6%  
331 2% 5%  
332 0.5% 3%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.5% 3%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.1% 1.4%  
338 0.2% 1.3%  
339 0.1% 1.1%  
340 0.1% 1.0%  
341 0.3% 0.9%  
342 0.2% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0% 0.4%  
345 0.1% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.2% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.2% 99.5%  
279 0.2% 99.4%  
280 0.2% 99.2%  
281 0.2% 98.9%  
282 1.2% 98.8%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0.6% 97%  
285 2% 97%  
286 0.4% 95%  
287 1.2% 95%  
288 2% 93%  
289 0.8% 91%  
290 1.0% 90%  
291 4% 89%  
292 1.0% 86%  
293 4% 85%  
294 2% 81%  
295 1.4% 79%  
296 8% 78%  
297 1.0% 70%  
298 3% 69%  
299 7% 66%  
300 6% 59%  
301 2% 53%  
302 3% 51% Median
303 3% 48%  
304 2% 45%  
305 5% 43%  
306 3% 37%  
307 7% 35%  
308 3% 28%  
309 4% 25%  
310 2% 21%  
311 3% 18%  
312 2% 15%  
313 4% 13%  
314 0.6% 10%  
315 1.0% 9%  
316 2% 8%  
317 1.0% 6%  
318 1.5% 5%  
319 0.5% 4%  
320 1.1% 3%  
321 0.7% 2%  
322 0.4% 1.4%  
323 0.1% 1.0%  
324 0.2% 0.9%  
325 0.2% 0.8%  
326 0.1% 0.5%  
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.3%  
330 0.2% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.4% 99.7%  
248 0.4% 99.3%  
249 0.3% 99.0%  
250 0.3% 98.6%  
251 0.1% 98%  
252 0.1% 98%  
253 0.1% 98%  
254 0.2% 98%  
255 0.2% 98%  
256 1.1% 98%  
257 0.9% 97%  
258 5% 96%  
259 3% 91%  
260 0.9% 88%  
261 3% 87%  
262 1.5% 84%  
263 0.9% 82%  
264 0.1% 81%  
265 0.3% 81%  
266 2% 81%  
267 2% 79%  
268 4% 77%  
269 5% 73%  
270 10% 68%  
271 7% 58%  
272 14% 52%  
273 2% 38% Median
274 1.4% 36%  
275 0.6% 34%  
276 1.4% 34%  
277 0.5% 32%  
278 1.3% 32%  
279 3% 30%  
280 5% 27%  
281 6% 22%  
282 7% 17%  
283 3% 10%  
284 2% 7%  
285 0.8% 5%  
286 0.4% 4%  
287 0.3% 4%  
288 0.1% 4%  
289 0.3% 4%  
290 0.2% 3%  
291 1.0% 3%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.5% 2%  
294 0.5% 1.2%  
295 0.4% 0.7%  
296 0.1% 0.3%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.3% 99.7%  
234 0.2% 99.4%  
235 2% 99.2%  
236 0% 98%  
237 0.1% 98%  
238 0.6% 98%  
239 0.6% 97%  
240 1.1% 96%  
241 0.2% 95%  
242 0.9% 95%  
243 1.4% 94%  
244 1.2% 93%  
245 0.3% 92%  
246 0.6% 91%  
247 5% 91%  
248 4% 85%  
249 3% 81%  
250 2% 78%  
251 5% 76%  
252 4% 71%  
253 3% 67%  
254 1.4% 64%  
255 10% 63% Median
256 15% 52%  
257 0.7% 37%  
258 2% 37%  
259 0.8% 35%  
260 3% 34%  
261 7% 31%  
262 0.8% 24%  
263 5% 23%  
264 3% 18%  
265 3% 15%  
266 0.9% 13%  
267 0.1% 12%  
268 1.3% 12%  
269 4% 10%  
270 1.5% 6%  
271 0.4% 5%  
272 0.4% 4%  
273 0.4% 4%  
274 0.8% 4%  
275 0.1% 3%  
276 0.1% 3%  
277 1.4% 2%  
278 0.6% 1.0%  
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.3%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
167 0% 100%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.7%  
175 0.1% 99.6%  
176 0.5% 99.4%  
177 0.2% 98.9%  
178 0.4% 98.7%  
179 0.4% 98%  
180 2% 98%  
181 0.5% 96%  
182 1.5% 95%  
183 0.9% 94%  
184 2% 93%  
185 1.0% 90%  
186 7% 89%  
187 2% 83%  
188 1.3% 81%  
189 4% 80%  
190 2% 76%  
191 6% 74%  
192 3% 67%  
193 2% 65%  
194 6% 63%  
195 4% 57%  
196 5% 53% Median
197 6% 47%  
198 2% 41%  
199 8% 39%  
200 5% 30%  
201 3% 26%  
202 6% 23%  
203 2% 17%  
204 1.3% 15%  
205 2% 14%  
206 3% 12%  
207 2% 9%  
208 0.6% 7%  
209 0.7% 6%  
210 2% 6%  
211 0.4% 4%  
212 0.4% 3%  
213 0.7% 3%  
214 0.4% 2%  
215 0.6% 2%  
216 0.3% 1.0%  
217 0.2% 0.7%  
218 0% 0.5%  
219 0% 0.5%  
220 0.2% 0.4%  
221 0% 0.2%  
222 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0.1% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.8%  
173 0.2% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.1% 99.6%  
176 0.2% 99.4%  
177 0.4% 99.2%  
178 0.5% 98.9%  
179 1.1% 98%  
180 0.2% 97%  
181 1.4% 97%  
182 0.9% 96%  
183 3% 95%  
184 3% 92%  
185 0.3% 89%  
186 2% 88%  
187 4% 86%  
188 1.0% 82%  
189 5% 81%  
190 2% 77%  
191 6% 75%  
192 8% 69%  
193 1.3% 61%  
194 4% 60%  
195 6% 56%  
196 1.1% 50% Median
197 14% 49%  
198 1.3% 35%  
199 0.9% 34%  
200 5% 33%  
201 4% 28%  
202 1.3% 24%  
203 3% 23%  
204 2% 20%  
205 4% 18%  
206 4% 14%  
207 1.4% 10%  
208 2% 8%  
209 0.4% 7%  
210 1.3% 6%  
211 2% 5%  
212 0.5% 3%  
213 0.5% 2%  
214 0.6% 2%  
215 0.1% 1.2%  
216 0.2% 1.1%  
217 0.2% 0.9%  
218 0.1% 0.7%  
219 0.3% 0.6%  
220 0.1% 0.3%  
221 0% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.2%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations